Morning Audibles

Vick & Eagles Embarrass McNabb & Redskins 59-28

Translation: No animals were harmed during the playing of this game. But MV has gone from murdering dogs to murdering Indians.



Fed's Dudley: QE2 Exit Could Take Years

EXCERPT
"Dudley cautioned that it will take months of adding 200,000 to 300,000 jobs to foster a meaningful recovery, and said the Fed's program to buy $600 billion in longer-term Treasuries is unlikely to generate a spurt of growth..."

Translation: If adding 200,000 - 300,000 jobs is the goal... Well, let's see... What's $600 billion divided by 200,000? Anybody have an abacus handy?

GM to Raise IPO Stock Price Range

EXCERPT
"Investor demand for General Motors' shares is so high that the automaker will raise the price range of its common stock to $32 to $33 when its initial public stock offering begins on Thursday..."

Translation: The high demand for shares cannot, I repeat cannot, be simply due to POMO... It MUST be attributable to "sales" in Europe... Right? Right?

Fiat, Ford, Toyota Lead Seventh Monthly Decline in European Auto Sales

EXCERPT
"Fiat SpA, Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. led a seventh consecutive monthly drop in European car sales as demand waned after the expiration of government trade-in incentives."

Translation: Ze Cash for ze "clunkAIRS" programme! A hit wherever she goes!

Or could it be?

Federal Workers Making Over $180,000 Increase By 2,000% In Past Five Years

EXCERPT
"Those earning over $150,000 in the past five years have grown from 7,420 to 82,034, a 1,006% increase. More shockingly, those earning over $180,000 has surged from just 805 in 2005, to 16,912 in 2010: a 2,001% increase. And it is on the background of this that Congress is planning on giving 2.1 million federal workers another 1.4% across the board pay raise! Additionally, it appears that the bulk of the gains have taken place since Obama took office."


Translation: How much does a "Presidential" dog groomer, and 2nd assistant to social calendar of FLOTUS make again?... BO should have just been sent to Michael Vick for training, that would save money, and get the economy focused on proper things like those high paying GREEN JOBS...

But apparently, some think the idea of high paying "green jobs" is silly...

Rothschild Buys Indonesian Coal Stakes for $3 Billion

What else can we do with all these billions & trillions? (& aren't 'greenbacks' printed on cotton, not paper)?

An Upcoming 30% Price Increase For Cotton Products And Defaulting Chinese Clothing Manufacturers May Soon Test The "Deflation" Thesis

EXCERPT
"many Chinese clothing manufacturers were nearing bankruptcy and the Chinese government was cracking down on hoarders, speculators and investigating position sizes"

I have an idea... Let's just VOTE ALL THOSE BASTARDS OUT OF OFFICE (and start with some fresh faces)...

Voters are Already Gloomy About a GOP Congress





257 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 257   Newer›   Newest»
Jennifer said...

Good summary of where we are from Trader Mark: Key levels I'm trading off

1225+ (new yearly highs)
1220 (the breakout level, previous highs in April 2010)
1204 (13 day moving average)
1194-1195 (20 day moving average)
1192 (200 week simple moving average)

All these levels create mini ranges for very nimble traders - i.e. one can buy over S&P 1204 (with stop loss below) aiming for a move to 1220. Or one could short sell below S&P 1204 (with stop loss above) aiming for a move to 1194-1195. Etc.

Aside from the day trader crowd, bears want to see this cursory bounce fail in the next few days, and then a retest of 1192-1194... and obviously a break below that level. Bulls want Friday to be a one day event, and a move to new yearly highs. The action between 1192 and 1225 means nothing to me from an intermediate term status, so those 30-35 points are just "chop" to me... a lot of mini resistance and support levels intertwine here, so we have to wait to see which way this thing breaks. For the love of QE2 I hope it's down ;) That said I can't remember any major selloff ever happening Thanksgiving week as the market goes into "stoopid" mode as the retail daytraders take over**, so unless something massive happens this week - I would not hold out much hope for bears next.

**Even during the huge disclocation of 2008, the market went into "joy joy" mode during the holiday period.

CV said...

"I can't remember any major selloff ever happening Thanksgiving week as the market goes into "stoopid" mode as the retail daytraders take over"...

More logic retrofitting... Don't cha love it?

Here's one for you...

I just flipped a coin (a nickle, of course) 10,000 times in a row... WOW! It came up "heads" every time (or, I can't remember even one "tails")...

OK... Here comes flip number 10,001...

Call it in the air!

CV said...

I'm going to save this comment (from BR's blog), and just play it OVER, and OVER, and OVER again the next time I hear any comments about the commentators on that blog being so smart...

---

cognos Says:
November 16th, 2010 at 8:39 am


"Rosenberg is an idiot. He’s was a mad raving short at 900 on SPX in summer of 2009.

I assume he’s been bearish since 1985. Why is anything he says interesting? (Ans – Its not!)

The Fed is not targeting “asset prices” despite all the raving of mediocre thinkers like DR. The Fed is target ACTUAL PRICE INFLATION. Again, we remain in deflation on the main CPI measure (down since summer 2008, and therefore lagging by 5% versus “expectations”).

Is not “stock prices” that have house prices and commodity prices OFF BY 30% in 2-yrs. Its just PRICES.

Why does this seem so complicated here? Go look at some historical commodity price graphs… they ARE NOT high. They are off 30-50% since summer of 08. Many are down on long-term trajectory. For example CORN is DOWN 10% FROM 1993 PRICES!

Seriously, this stuff is really simple. Inflation… worldwide… has been on a continuous long-term decline in almost every country. What were US inflation readings in the 1990s? They were 3%. In the 1980s? They were 4%. Why dont you people get that 1.5% inflation (following depression-style negative price shock) is the problem?"

CV said...

Here you go cognos...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/october-ppi-rises-04-ex-food-and-energy-down-06-expectations-01-rise

"Deflation in all the non-core items continues, even as your cotton-based and coffee purchases are about to go up by 30%. The November PPI increased by 0.4% on expectations of 0.8% (and previous 0.4%). More importantly, the PPI ex the things one actually needs, food and energy, actually went down by 0.6%, despite expectations of an unchanged print of 0.1% from September, confirming that all semi-leverage requiring purchases are getting trounced. Also, how the BLS got a -0.1% read in the food PPI is a secret the Department of Truth will take with it to the grave. At least there was some trace of honesty in energy price reporting, which jumped by 3.7% - the highest since January."

call me ahab said...

That's funny- just left a post over at BR's on that very thread-

McNabb- dude looked like Charlie Brown near the end of that game-

the very day he signed a 78 million dollar contract-

it's the gods working against Dan Snyder I imagine

McFearless said...

nothing like someone that calls another dumb, and then follows up that brilliance with analysis on inflation that entirely revolves around prices.

Monkey much?

karen said...

good morning! excellent morning audibles, CV.. i do love your translations!

afraid to look at futures again.. i'll jinx it : )

call me ahab said...

60+ points for Vick on fantasy-

that is the point tally for Vick on my other league-

one man wrecking crew (against the Skins anyway)

wunsacon said...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

I can't substantiate this but...

Five years ago, I said the only US exports are grains and airplanes -- and it'd eventually just be grains. Looks like it's happening.

(Okay, it doesn't take a genius to predict that. And I'm wrong on many predictions I don't mention...selection bias. But...) Just wanted to say...

WE'RE FOOKED!

before I head off to the spice mine. Later, folks. ;-)

call me ahab said...

and just to be clear-

the Vick +60 wasn't my team-

(I put my faith in McNabb for a breakout game)

but my son was kicking back- all confident in his win this weekend and his opponent had Vick on tap for last night's game-

poor kid

CV said...

@mcF

Well at least it's a good thing that BR doesn't censor S-T-U-P-I-D-I-T-Y...

He'd hardly have any bloggers at all...

-GIB

karen said...

" The euro has turned into a bankruptcy machine. Once the markets have finished with Ireland, they will simply move on to Portugal and Spain, and after that to Italy and France."

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHg8UgWh.Jxs

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-fed-president-william-dudley-inflation-2010-11

karen said...

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose, snapping the biggest two-day decline in almost two years, after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said the central bank’s bond purchases won’t cause an inflation problem.

Government securities also gained as economists said a U.S. report due tomorrow will show consumer price-increases are slowing. Investors should buy 10- and 30-year Treasuries, Barclays Capital said. Benchmark 10-year yields jumped 31 basis points over the previous two trading days, the most since a back-to-back surge of 33 basis points in January 2009.

Dudley’s “comments added fuel to the fire, with the market trying to make up its mind about whether the Fed is going to exhaust its target size” for purchases, said David Schnautz, a fixed-income strategist at Commerzbank AG in London. “The market was a little bit afraid that, due to the high-profile criticism, there was a chance the Fed might not exhaust the full amount. That gave Treasuries a hard time.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1b52_dvk71c

karen said...

jcg up 4.5% after yesterday's candle?! give me a break!

CV said...

More fun for cognos... (aka - "seer of seers" & pride of the Ritholtz peanut gallery of libertarian thought and economic reasoning)...

Purveyor of: "Seriously, this stuff is really simple. Inflation… worldwide… has been on a continuous long-term decline in almost every country.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=638

CV said...

@karen (9:41)

Anecdotally, I've heard that unemployed males (who have stopped paying their mortgages) buy suits at discount to help with their self esteem...

I'd suggest they take up farming (I could use a couple of hands on deck)...

karen said...

if 1187 breaks again i think we'll get 1170.. 1150 not possible with GM IPO..

McFearless said...

was quite the thrashing last night the skins took, Vick had 67 pts in my other league, that's TECMO stats, insane.

AmenRa said...

Somebody just came off IR...

CV said...

@McF

Andy could have trashed the BO JACKSONS if MV hadn't been riding the pine...

AmenRa said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/austria-witholds-funds-eu-greece-bailout-package-says-greece-hasnt-met-commitments-eu-public

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/finland-opposes-aid-ireland

It's coming apart at the seams...

CV said...

@McF

FXI is down 2%...

You ought to go back test this comment/thesis that I posted the other day... See if there's anything to it...


"Shanghai was down because PetroChina and Sinopec were up nearly 10%, which triggered the sell-off. If you invest in the Chinese A share market, you need to keep an eye on PetroChina and Sinopec. Every time these two are up sharply, it means a massive sell-off is imminent
"

McFearless said...

CV,

yeah, he would have, or I could have started Ochocinco and Blount and it would have been a damn close game, in the end though, it worked out the way it did, so watch yourself, Bo Jacksons want to get to that top spot.

McFearless said...

observation:

notice the growing chorus of:

I don't agree with QE2, but there aren't really any other options, and maybe it will help, at least a little, we just don't really know for sure, but it could be bad, we hope it's not bad, but it could be bad, it might be, so I'm not for it, but I'm not against it, it's just "where we are"

Throw this in the trash with the double-dip nonsense discussion that happened over the summer, seriously. So much time wasted on people that are saying nothing and instead doing a little dance, anything to avoid making a clear statement about it.

But, they tell people like me how it really is, you know, cause there are only, like, 12 people in the whole world that "get-it".

call me ahab said...

if anyone want's a good laugh- read this-

http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2010/11/08/ultimate-irony-the-debt-hawks-create-death-panels/

having your cake and eating it too (it's just that simple)-

all have a good day

CV said...

@McF

"I don't agree with QE2, but there aren't really any other options, and maybe it will help, at least a little, we just don't really know for sure, but it could be bad, we hope it's not bad, but it could be bad, it might be, so I'm not for it, but I'm not against it, it's just "where we are"

---

Sounds strangely like the McCain vs. Obama argument 2 years ago...

"We know we're gonna be "fooked"... But as long as a Democrat is in the White House we can all feel better about ourselves...

They're all clowns - but MY clowns are better...

Just like Clinton... "We don't care if you lie to us - as long as there is a dot.com bubble going on, we're happy"...

call me ahab said...

also-

just FYI- Boarwalk Empire on HBO- very good show-

if only just to see Gretchen Mol-

gotta roll

McFearless said...

well, let me be the first since nobody here is playing the game

so, you see, the market is down because today's POMO is so tiny, it's ONLY 4-6 billion.

POMO POMO POMO POMO POMO POMO

now, are you all salivating properly?

I-Man said...

I've been a Redskins fan my entire life, and I dont recall ever seeing them get their asses kicked like they did last night.

Just flat out fucking embarassing.

Jennifer said...

I'm salivating properly now that I've had a tooth-sized lump of calcium cut out of my salivary gland. I don't think POMO had anything to do with it, but I'd gladly blame the Fed for that too.

Jennifer said...

I'll be 40 in 3 weeks...I swear, everything's falling apart.

Jennifer said...

Karen -- there goes 1187!

AmenRa said...

Back from IR to a starting position...

Matthew said...

@Jennifer:

You are a shark, growing replacement teeth :D

spoonman said...

Irish announcement in a couple hours. Better start drinking now.

McFearless said...

CV,

What's very evident is the fact that QE2 is nothing more than a political argument.

Nobody cares about the message, they only care about the messengers.

Yesterday I see at TBP comments about the letter to the Fed from several well known righties and people saying things like, "look at these people that signed this letter, I'm about to get on board with QE2, none of these folks are credible"

Really pretty retarded statement when considered, right? After all, the largest pro QE2 guy out there, the great wizard himself was more wrong than anyone about what has played out.

So, strango that I am, I sit around think, what's the message here, exactly? Why all this time spent trying to discredit those speaking against QE2?

On one hand, we don't want to play amateur policy wonk, you know, none of us are qualified to do so, it's not our "job"....Sarah Palin is certainly not qualified to be an economist is what they all yell (funny though, I haven't yet seen the articles out there about how Obama is not qualified to be an economist when he makes claims about the "recovery" that will result from QE2)

On the other hand, if it's ok to ridicule those that express some concern over Fed actions, isn't that just another way of saying you agree with policy, in which case, you are still playing amateur policy wonk, you are just playing on "the right side"?

This is more left vs. right, every day all day.

McFearless said...

jennifer,

I might be wrong, but Im' pretty sure that the calcium thing, that was Bush's fault...yeah, for sure.

Matthew said...

Does anyone have the balls to go long on the 1183 supp?

AmenRa said...

Matthew

DXY 78.95 - blowing through resistance levels
TNX 29.22 - 10yr yields still pushing higher
EURUSD 1.3544 - EU blowup in full effect
Gold 1346.50 - margin increase plus margin calls

Not ready to go long yet. A massive dump in still in the works before the day is over.

CV said...

@Jennifer

Correction: you'll be... 29 + (x)

Same age as karen!

karen said...

bearish signal on NVS

http://www.optionmonster.com/drj_blog/article.jsp?page=drj_blog/rmbrenna_on_graf_jewelers_28m_pearl_necklace_51008.html

McFearless said...

no, I'm looking for this move to go lower still, I'd be very interested in starting to scale in long at 1160-1170 as I expect the move down to complete at or below 1160, this is a zone I've seen from some bears as a sign that we'd be confirming a larger move lower if we there but I disagree with that idea, I think's it the right count though, neely has us in wave 4 of C, so I'm hoping I can get some calls for December that will pay out well as we get a little lower here.

my small trade in FXP worked out ok but I'm back to cash now.

72bat said...

jen -
sorry to break it to you, but there are decades of falling apart ahead of you. 8^{

mcHAPPY said...

@ahab re: Boardwalk Empire

Definitely agree. The first 5 or 6 episodes spent a lot of time with character development and story going nowhere. Everything is coming together now. It is awesome.

Not sure if anyone is a Dexter fan but sort of same thing going on there IMO. The first 5-6 episodes of this season were very slow but now it is really picking up.

AmenRa said...

Also there's a daily 3LB reversal down on the SPX (for now), back below the monthly 3LB reversal price and they should hope to hold 1180.27 (the .1459 from close) or 1169.48 (the .236 from close) comes into play.

CV said...

McF (10:41)

Basically... None of TPTB will ever have the "guts" to go where CV started going about 5 years ago... (and what i know you do too)

Otherwise... it'll be TEOTWAWKI...

Come on in... the water is fine... I keep saying...

Did you realize that you can use newspaper, wet it, and it makes for a pretty good garden bed that'll keep weeds from growing... You lay it down... soak it... then throw decorative mulch over top of it... VOILA...

I'm thinking that PHD's would serve the same purpose in a pinch...

CV said...

@McF

If it bounces at 1160... GN is a "god"...

He may be a "demi - god" already...

karen said...

CV, i think the ink is poisonous..

karen said...

oops on the aussie.. wish the euro would do that.. tho my euo is green now..

karen said...

jnk tapped the 50.. that's either a buy or it isn't.

McFearless said...

I'll admit I couldn't get into Boardwalk Empire, stopped watching after the first 2. Maybe I should go back but thinking spartacus is going to be on again soon, hopefully.

McFearless said...

C,

yeah, if it bounces were he's drawn his lines color me extremely impressed because he'd have called nearly every squiggle since August.

It's one thing for a waver to do that when we are impulsing, even I can do it then, but to do it now, it's impressive to the tenth.

mcHAPPY said...

@McF

Suffer through the first 5 episodes. It all came together at the end of last week and this week was awesome. There are so many storylines in the show it took a long time to set them all up.

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I've been meaning to post this song in relation to social mood. It gets played quite a bit on a local radio station. Listen to the lyrics.

Thoery of a Deadman - I hate my life.

McFearless said...

maybe over the weekend I'll watch them again, it was a little slow for me to start off, I need that instant gratification you know

did someone say POMO

thought I heard something

McFearless said...

McHappy, interesting song, haven't really heard it down here....yet.

social mood bitchez.

18 said...

"Matthew said...
Does anyone have the balls to go long on the 1183 supp?"

no

1179 - 50% 1170-1188... may bounce off or dance around here for a while IMO


18

karen said...

never heard that song either.. thanks for posting.. interesting.

anyone buying jnk for the 8.6% yield??

or, cim for 18% yield?

McFearless said...

GOOG continues to correct hard here and that could be an interesting options play for Dec.

McFearless said...

jnk, I've got 0 interest, yes the div is very high, but I gotta hold a full 12 mos to get all of it, doubtful I'd be willing to do that, if I were bullish in general I feel like I could do better trading high beta rather than JNK.

CV said...

@McF (11:28)

Ahem! What did CV say weeks ago about GOOG over $600? and gaps?

That's actually going on my LIST of barometers...

I'll say this now... If GOOG can break over $600 and hold?

catfood bitchez! (and buy silver)!

AmenRa said...

Karen

IQI -4%

-------------
1176.22 is the 1.764% from low of 666.79. The big line in the sand.

CV said...

@Mcf/karen

CV will take all the jnk "silver" off your hands if it's bothering you keeping it around...

CV said...

I'll also take your jnk...

- lumber
- cotton
- sugar
- cocoa
- wheat
- rough rice
- copper

Fred Sanford bitchez! :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WqazleR3FE

CV said...

@18

What about 1176... (the 61.8% from 1188 to 1170)...?

for starters (a bounce)... small one...

karen said...

uup at 22.91.. 23 next? and overhead resistance?

McFearless said...

hey, today is a pomo guys, it is.

lmfao

AmenRa said...

Damn just shot through the weekly 3LB reversal price.

karen said...

gld broke 130..

AmenRa said...

Ben

TPTB are probably using the profits from POMO for their margin calls. Can't drive the market higher when the phone keeps ringing..."You need another $100MM or sell something".

AmenRa said...

Any takers on 10yr at 3.00% and 30yr at 4.5% before the week is up?

karen said...

these index %s are trading too close... algos?

karen said...

BergenCapital

hearing that a large hedge fund manager is liquidating a $3 billion-plus portfolio of emerging-market stocks

CV said...

@Amen (11:49)

You heard that the margin req's on gold were put in place...

Plus, the 2nd time in a week on silver...

cotton & others...

LOL

AmenRa said...

CV

Comex to traders: "Deleverage deez..."

18 said...

CV, I try not to put so many lines on my charts. One could do all of the fib's between the 18's but that would line out the whole chart... LOL but there's your bounce ,,,1175.06

any thoughts on SLV support?

18

CV said...

@Bruce

I'm sure glad your love affair withe 3x "long" ETF was short lived!

& I'm hoping that you took CV's advice and bought the wife a greenhouse...

Endless fun... those!

CV said...

@Amen (11:54)

Mr. Market to Bernankrupt...

See Michael Vick foto above...

McFearless said...

Ra,

It's just like I've always said, if the market was trending down POMO gets overwhelmed and it would appear to not work, if the market was in an up-trend it would make POMO appear to work, POMO's were down in August, up in September and october, so, as far as I can tell, people are still idiots.

CV said...

@18

I have no clue on silver support...

Put it this way... If equities are doing a GN type correction... Silver should go higher into year end (maybe even take out $30)...

But it could also be that if there ends up being a QE2 backlash... a deeper correction would occur...

Therefore... I'm not a buyer of this dip (as a physical holder)... Trading is another story...

MACRO?

Despite all the "whining" about QE2, austerity, GOP... blah, blah, blah...

I think one MUST come to the final conclusion that central bankers are just going to print to infinity...

catfood bitchez!

karen said...

if you check crude on a five or ten min chart.. you will see the stair step down.. footprints.. wonder if that is the under fed mandate?

CV said...

@karen

you make a good point about the "stair step" appearance...

McFearless said...

Judging by neely's counts on gold, he's no pm bull that's for sure....if I understand his big count on gold, when silver's move is over ,if it is not already, it will correct back below $15 minimum, likely much lower.

that doesn't mean the metals aren't still in a larger long term bull, they just have violent sell-offs along the way, a la 2008.

CV said...

@McF (12:08)

That's kind of what I'm looking for...

$14 was my price target

But I'll also say that prior to this summer, $8 was a price target (so it shows you how things have changed)...

It's like what karen, yourself, and I have been saying about gold...

2 years we were all talking about $600's... Then 840... Now it's well over $1000...

See a pattern?

McFearless said...

internals are hugely bearish right now, p/c hovering near or above 1 pretty much all day.

I would like to see:

1. big jump in bearish sentiment on a number of indicators this week
2. some orthodox wavers calling the move off the top a five wave impulse

simple confirmations it's still likely a correction.

holding lots of cash right now

CV said...

@McF

Also... I've said this SEVERAL times already...

I'm less concerned right now about where SLV goes at the moment (and more interested in the wave peaks that are being painted on the chart)...

Just draw the wave peaks back to 2006, and you're going to see how silver is eventually going to be priced when the full CATFOOD world comes to a bowl near you...

karen said...

CV, spx has same stair step.. look at the darn %s.. 1.6% down.. across the board.. thank you bots and algos..

CV said...

@karen

AAPL (daily - 12 months)

3P&ADH?

karen said...

could be CV.. the entire run of sept/oct should not have happened..

CV said...

@Amen

$spx very close to WEEKLY 3lb territory...

CV said...

@karen

the whole "re-nomination of Bernankrupt" should not have happened...

But we'll let that one go for awhile...

Chalk it up in the "leaders who are not QUALIFIED to hold office" category...

Plenty of those to go around...

AmenRa said...

CV

Tested it once already...

karen said...

in addition to iqi look at mub..

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/11/16/munis-continue-collapse.html

karen said...

well, jjc just took out a few weeks of lows today..

AmenRa said...

Karen

HYD getting handled. Even more so than MUB.

karen said...

Today's Mr. TopStep Video http://bit.ly/aE1Yjg

AmenRa said...

Karen

The market better make a move soon or that gap down yesterday at 2PM will seem like nothing...

CV said...

@Amen

Is that like the "stairstep" that happens to have a rotten floorboard?

karen said...

optionmonster

Triple top in $VIX up at 24%. Europe closed down about 2% across the board

karen said...

crude tried to find footing on that last step up but it still made lower lows..

karen said...

i cannot get over the synchronicity of the indices.. seriously.. i know i am a broken record but, come on! it this for real?

McFearless said...

all the same markets

karen said...

this guy is grasping at straws right now if he is talking about the .10% increase in the indices: tradefast

Rosengren statement about completing entire $600mm QE2 program seems to have goosed the market - affecting dollar, gold, stocks...

karen said...

Ben @ 1:02, i kno, right?!

that's why i'm okay with selling my euo a few pennies too soon.. i've got other stuff in play on that all one market theme : )

oh oh oh 1.66% all at once!

McFearless said...

quick quick, find the cause of the market movement today.....oh gee, still using POMO eh

seriously, jokers everywhere

18 said...

GLD trading pretty much the same SPY for the last 8 or 9 days...

karen said...

now all 1.65%.. this doesn't scare anyone? i want out of this surreal zone.. LOL

karen said...

cute comment: tradefast - having a difficult time getting my mind around all the moving parts

and this is good, especially rule 22:

http://www.kirkreport.com/2010/11/16/the-22-rules-of-trading/

McFearless said...

gold has generally risen and fallen with stocks for a few years now....nothing is a perfect +1/-1 but that's a pretty clear trend now for a long time, I used to ask if it bothered anyone that gold is/was moving in near lock step with risk assets but the answer was clearly no, so I stopped asking.

I just want to end by saying POMO....., and if you are getting annoyed by it now, too bad, I had to live through the absolute rubbish of hearing it over and over again in September and October.

McFearless said...

I like Andrew Kirk, good trader that guy.

How about #12:

"Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance."

Hey, idea, buy POMO, just keeping it simple....right?

18 said...

McF, so it seems GLD is a stock play and doesn't have anything to do with gold... LOL

anyone here use Etrade? today, everytime I sit idle for 1 or 2 minutes, I have to log back in... pain in the ass! never had this problem before

karen said...

ben, ben, ben..

TA = Tepper Analysis

pomo is just a tiny piece of it : )

karen said...

i'm an e*trader.. check your time out setting..

sometimes when i click "go" instead of enter it takes me out.. but i can get back in without logging in by just clicking my bookmarked "e*trade"

karen said...

okay, next step down in crude.. let's see if it can take out last low..

McFearless said...

Karen,

TA, love it! I'll be using that moving forward.

@18,

"McF, so it seems GLD is a stock play and doesn't have anything to do with gold"

yeah, exactly, been saying that a long time, it's about bottom left to upper right squiggles. If you knew the real reasons to own gold the last thing you'd be doing is pumping all your money into GLD...pfft.

karen said...

http://dealbreaker.com/2010/11/tim-geithner-tax-cut-deal-isnt-rocket-science/

I-Man said...

Whats "POMO"?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Morning fellow catfood lovers.

I tend to prefer Meow Mix, meself...especially if warmed in the microwave first...

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/california-default-2010-11

CV said...

@karen

"i've got other stuff in play on that all one market theme : )"

beta bitchez! :-)

karen said...

i heard cholera death toll hit 1000 today..

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AA5PC20101115

CV said...

@karen

Just stick with the:

EURO-GOLD or EURO-SILVER pair...

That's money...

CV said...

@McF

"Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance."

Yeah... I'm still going with:

- The Super Bowl Indicator
- The as January goes so goes the year indicator
- The "elections" indictor
- and the "buy stocks until tear end" indicator

I can't remember where I heard all those ideas... It wasn't here tho... (except when some COMEDY was needed to crack the boredom)...

I-Man said...

If we get a new low in YM today, its gonna be close to the bell.

Might be fading faders here for a bit, I-Self...

But more likely, just chill and wait. Prelim calcs point to an hour or so until next retracement high.

CV said...

I just realized that my last two posts (1:40, 1:43)... were "dichotomies" of each other...

Oh well - I'll just banish myself back to NASCAR & whittlin'... :-)

karen said...

any guesses as to how this crap shoot will end today? this is what Chartlines thinks: ChartLines

String levels under 1180 are 1177, 1172 with minipivots at 1179.50, 1174.50. The 1177 might do it but most wanna see 1180 be support again (about 2 hours ago)

Then again minipivot about 1174.50 might gave been enough to send up test 1180 & if above, retest 1185, 1187; 1192 & 1197 if "lucky"

I-Man said...

Totally open to the possibility that I'm giving 'em too much upside cred. Could just sideways consolidate...

But if I were a squid, I'd be hunting those with less sense of time.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I thought it especially interesting that the Austrians are the first Europeans to state they won't continue to help the Greeks...Austrians. See. Oh, nevermind....

Where is Leftback when I need someone to pester?

CV said...

@I-Man

based on my 11:41... I've had enough fun for the day, and closed up shop... (1176)

If I leave a few pennies on the table (so be it)...

Now, if they're NICKLES... I'll be pissed...

karen said...

lastly: ChartLines

I'm still partial to 1160 but not confident we'll see it before tradable bounce.

McFearless said...

We should get some relief shortly is my best guess for stocks, need some sort of bounce before completing the move down to the target area. Maybe worth a shot if you are trading short term like I......I'll be sticking to cash until lower prices to get long.

CV said...

@Bruce (1:47)

Seems to me that the "Austrians" started something 100 years ago as well...

You know... Those "Jay Leno" (jaw) types...

CV said...

@McF (1:49)

That's EXACTLY what I see... 100%

I-Man said...

Karen, if they start gunning near fib's in the next few minutes, then there will be a nice reload for shorts before the close.

karen said...

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/11/16/is-china-going-to-kill-the-commodities-rally/

karen said...

tomorrow is CPI, housing starts and building permits.. not to mention those all important crude inventories, rolling my eyes.

I-Man said...

Those buy programs are key tho, if there is no follow through on momentum, it could be overnight (again) before the next good level... and that means everyones nightmare for the rest of session... choppy, ugly, wide, range.

18 said...

@karen, thx but where might that "time out" setting be? maybe in etrade pro platform?

looked everywhere... grrrr

CV said...

@I-Man

based on some of my SPY AH prints... Those fibs may have already been reached...

I-Man said...

Right here is a good example of a pivot I'm tempted to sell, but wont, because the programs are at work, as evidenced by the momentum.

I-Man said...

@ CV

I'm fib-ing from multiple levels on multiple timeframes these days brah, makes it hard to relate to other's levels... plus, I dont know anyone else who even trades YM.

But as noted, they all tend to trade close these days so I kind of vaguely know what yall mean when you talk ES/spx numbers.

I-Man said...

But for those "near fib's" I meant the ones just off the most recent low/high swings on the 1min chart.

karen said...

TheKirkReport - Pitchforking the S&P 500 $SPX http://bit.ly/9bByaJ

karen said...

18..

Click Accounts, My Info, Account Preferences,

scroll down to Security Settings.. you have a choice of 30 min or 2 hours..

AmenRa said...

Chris Dodd is an idiot. Listening to him on Bloomberg. "Congress should not try to change the Feds mandate. They're not economists".

Ummm didn't Congress change the Feds mandate back in the 70's?

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hedge-fund-titan-steinhardt-says-he-would-sell-gm-stock-quickly-i-can

On the other you have legendary hedge fund investor Mike Steinhardt. When asked whether he would sell a hypothetical allocation of GM stock, Steinhardt's response is about as priceless as it gets: "As quickly as I can. I don't think one should be a long-term holder in government securities, particularly government equity securities."

(C immediately comes to my mind : )

AmenRa said...

S&P ISSUES A/D 0.06
S&P VOL A/D 0.06

NYSE ISSUES A/D 0.12
NYSE VOL A/D 0.07

NASDAQ ISSUES A/D 0.25
NASDAQ VOL A/D 0.14

RUSSELL 2K ISSUES A/D 0.10
RUSSELL 2K VOL A/D 0.13

NET DOLLAR VOL:
S&P -64.2MM
NYSE -17.76MM
NASDAQ -31.8MM

CV said...

@I-Man

This is where CV is "fibbin" from (gannin too)...

new chart in thread

AmenRa said...

aka no way in hell I'd be long right now.

karen said...

drv up over 10%! i sold earlier in the day : (

18 said...

THX Karen, :)
dummy me, found it
I even scrolled thru that page and noticed it sez I'm not on margin and don't have options... which is false. Maybe if they do a margin call on me I won't be liable for it... hehe

karen said...

CV.. that new chart.. WTF?!!

karen said...

BreakingNews

2 killed dead, scores hurt in multi-vehicle pileups blamed on fog in Carroll County, Va. - WSLS-TV http://bit.ly/9O6UZM

karen said...

Dying With Debt: A Dirty Little Retirement Secret
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40214649

McFearless said...

I saw, no joke, 7 car accidents on the way home last night, I live about 12 miles from my office.

I see them every single night on 95 but last night was special, three more on the way to work this morning.

can't wait til winter!

McFearless said...

I just don't trust any of these moves right now, all too choppy, nothing impulsive

dollar
pm's
stocks

CV said...

@Amen (2:09)


Chris Dodd could not POSSIBLY be an idiot...

He's one of those with EXPERIENCE... You know... The ones who should be elected so as to avoid having those with NO EXPERIENCE, (or little involvement in political discussions) involved in any form of lively debate...

Others should be censored...

http://anonymoustraders.blogspot.com/2010/11/weekend-open-thread_13.html?showComment=1289783824573#c8903066136452086563

karen said...

KingWorldNews

James Turk - $400 Silver by 2013 to 2015 http://bit.ly/bYWHdd

karen said...

you know what i don't trust?? the precious metals on margin.. i'd personally like every bit of margin squeezed out...

CV said...

@karen (2:22)

Happened yesterday in the PREMARKET...

Looked like a mini FLASH CRASH to CV...

All I know is... In May, when the market flash crashed (to 1065)... There - we eventually went...

...and beyond...

Of course... it could NEVER happen this time... Because of POMO, and year end, and all that stuff...

I read it on other blogs, so it must be true!

CV said...

@karen

James Turk just made my "friend of the day" list...

It's a capricious list...

karen said...

CV.. and the GM IPO.. you forgot to add.. and TA : )

karen said...

oh, and op ex : )

McFearless said...

again, the idea that people are buying PM's on margin likely means they are hardly buying them for any other reason than to speculate

some of us want to own gold and silver because we recognize it as real money, the only real money there is

CV said...

@karen

On TURK...

Anyway... look at it this way... (based on CV's oft stated algos)...

- DOW crosses gold
- gold 16-1 vs. silver

$400 x 16 = $6,400 (presumed price of gold based on model)

Dow 6,400/Gold $6,400? (could happen!)

What's the beta here?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-16/u-k-inflation-unexpectedly-rises-forcing-king-to-write-letter-to-osborne.html

Predicts `Elevated' U.K. Inflation After Rate Breaches 3%

"

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said inflation will remain “elevated” throughout 2011 after it unexpectedly accelerated in October, forcing him to write the fourth letter of explanation to the Treasury this year.

“The committee is ready to adjust policy -- in either direction -- in order to ensure that the risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term remain evenly balanced around the 2 percent target,” King said in a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne released by the central bank today.

Prior to this month's inflation numbers we thought that inflation would be contained. Now we realize we are dumber than a bag of rocks.."

...Actually, I improved the press release a little. Apologies to bags of rocks everywhere...

CV said...

@karen (2:36)

Didn't you get the memo?

The GM IPO is going to be the thing that LAUNCHES the SPY off the 1160 pits...

The headlines will read something like...

Dow up 200 on "the economy" (you know, the optimism that everyone is going to buy Chevy Volts)...

Fill in your own headlines if you don't like mine...

I'm working quickly (because I'm busy trying new catfood recipies)...

CV said...

@McF (2:37)

Banks in Russia are now accepting gold as a form of payment...

McFearless said...

$400 silver, I'll take the other side of that trade, I didn't read the link but I'd bet it says hyperinflation in it, maybe more than once?, which is really quite funny considering how bad the deflation still is....

now granted, I'm not about to link up a bunch of commodity charts to yell inflation, I'll simply repeat that inflation is an increase in the money supply plus credit, credit of course is the "big" side of the ledger, and here's some up to date trends:

remember this from September, when consumer credit "expanded"

Bank credit contracted by $14.9 billion.
• Financial companies contracted $3.1 billion.
• Credit unions contracted $1.6 billion.
• Securitization pools contracted $1.0 billion.

But ... federal government supported consumer credit surged $27 billion, on top of the $26 billion runup in August — completely unprecedented and very likely hooked to public sector financing for student loans (ie, nothing to do with the economy).
In other words, consumer credit outside of government loans is collapsing at an alarming rate — for eight months running and more than $20 billion alone in September.

So consider a $20 billion contraction in September alone and the delevering really hasn't even started imo, it's apparently been mostly defaults.... doesn't make $600 billion seem all that big when considered.

I maintain the Fed will fail, and deflation will win, and no, we aren't going to see hyperinflation first.

if I'm wrong, I own some anyway and I'll end up having a bunch of worthless cash for fire starters.

karen said...

CV, another headline for you: YahooFinance

Oil prices slide on fresh global economic concerns http://yhoo.it/bsaz9L

CV said...

@karen

"2 killed dead..."

as opposed to what... being killed ALIVE? :-)

CV said...

@karen (2;45)

LB would appreciate that one... Where is that dude?

I-Man said...

Next little retracement high is gonna be boomshackalacka.

CV said...

@I-Man

boomshackalacka...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mfxcq77FkdE

karen said...

optionMONSTERfd

DRJ: Jamie on $VIX & Expiration: http://bit.ly/cpEytc

I-Man said...

@ CV

I was thinking more along the lines of...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mf98dAnQ88

A little NBA Jams action... McF will appreciate.

CV said...

@I-Man

That's the fact... JACK!

karen said...

"killed dead" that went right over my head..

LB is at a conference.. he returns to NY Friday but then goes to England to escape the American Thankgiving... LOL

zombie said...

or possibly 2 killed "almost" dead

CV said...

@karen

Impromptu... I asked an entire group of 60 people, last night, in my class...

"Can anybody tell me who MILES STANDISH is?

They even had the Thanksgiving reference in hand because I was talking about the Thanksgiving class schedule...

No takers... NONE...

Bunch of people who LOST ON JEOPARDY...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvUZijEuNDQ

karen said...

hey.. tbt got hit.. down over 4%.. i just noticed..

Jennifer said...

one of my law school classmates was a 5 day Jeopardy champion -- they give you a red vette if you're a 5 day winner. I never thought he was that smart while we were in school together...whoops.

CV said...

JCG near HOD... lol

CV said...

@Jennifer

I qualified to go on Jeopardy (took the test)...

But I also qualified for WHEEL OF FORTUNE in the same go around...

They're both Merv Griffin Enteprises shows (and the rules prohibited you from going on both - you had to choose one or the other)...

I took the Wheel :-)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/535616/California-Will-Default-On-Its-Debt%2C-Says-Chris-Whalen

California Will Default On Its Debt, Says Chris Whalen

What are we fighting for?
Don't know and I don't give a damn
Next stop is Vietnam..

...this song comes to my mind about taxpayers in California...

karen said...

all i can say about JCG is there might be a leak on their earnings (22 Nov).. and i for one haven't done much NM or Saks shopping this year.. traded over to JCG on line.. i even got one of the credit cards so i could earn points!

CV said...

It was funny too, because it was filmed as a "Valentines Day" show theme...

So for a couple of years, they did a re-run of the same show on Feb 14th...

I guess they couldn't do it today (because of my mullett hairdo from the day)...

Nobody wants to look like Sting or Bono anymore :-)...

There are people around though, who like to dig through other people rubble because theu don't have anything better to do...

McFearless said...

the key to wheel of fortune is winning the prize puzzle, you are almost a lock to go to the final wheel if you win that one.

karen said...

social commentary for you, Ben, "His new broker Beate Moore of Sotheby’s International Realty said Friday that she believed cautiousness about the economy hindered the home’s sale previously, but the mood has changed. “When people practice abstinence for some time, they’re very happy when they can spend again,” she said."

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/11/12/former-lehman-exec-lists-bridgehampton-mansion/

McFearless said...

Karen,

that's all me, I've bought 3 ties at JCG in the last quarter. Almost bought a shirt there too but I'm waiting for that to go on sale, or for my stocks to go up which in turn gives me confidence, if they go up enough I'll put the shirt on my American Express card!

karen said...

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Fuld, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s former chief executive officer, will get $10 million from the defunct firm’s insurers as part of a program paying officers and directors for the costs of lawsuits, according to a court filing.

Insurers also will be asked to pay as much as $90 million in costs for unidentified defendants in civil, criminal and regulatory proceedings, Lehman said in yesterday’s filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=acN_oyPSMAeE

McFearless said...

CV,

I do have things to do, but I would also love to see a video of you on Whell of Fortune, my wife loves that show, I keep telling her to try out for it.

CV said...

@McF

did you see this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMzNeTVCNIM

CV said...

@McF

I solved 2 puzzles...

I remember one was "Onward and Upward"

I forget the other one now...

karen said...

ben, they are offering 30% off sale items and free shipping with code JCREW.. first thing yesterday morning I bot another thick cashmere pullover.. I got the plum colored one for 129 on the last sale.. and now a black one for 119.. : ) ORIGINALLY $248 !!! couldn't pass that up..

http://www.jcrew.com/womens_feature/catalogjcrewcomexclusives/sweaters/PRDOVR~30698/99102117636/ENE~1+2+3+22+4294967294+20~~P_saleprice|1~20+17+4294967133~15~~~~~~~/30698.jsp

McFearless said...

yeah, I saw that here I think, can't remember when though.

CV said...

@McF

The test is pretty simple...

They sit you down at this (I swear), it's like one of those schoolchildren desk... Hand everyone a piece of paper with about 10 puzzles on them (all set up "hangman" type - with just a few letters filled in)...

You have, like, 3 minutes to solve as much as you can... I was lucky and just got on a roll... (did about 7 of them - while most people just got 1 or 2)...

But then, you have to pass by a LIVE screening (to make sure you won't look like an @ss on TV)...

I made it, despite myself, on that...

CV said...

last two $spx 5 min candles don't look so good for bulls...

McFearless said...

Karen,

I think BRepublic is offering free shipping on everything now moving forward, no codes needed, I'm pretty sure it's them. That seems like a pretty good deal for Cashmere. I prefer a little bit thinner tie than the massive NBA ties that most men wear (ties no wider than the width of the lapels boys), J Crew has been putting out some really good ties like this with basic patterns, two I got at the local store here for under $30 and you can keep ties for a long long time, beats me spending $200 on a similar tie from one of the designers since a lot of the mall type names (Calvin K, Tommy, Ralph) still only make the big ties. I know someone that has ties tailored, seems like a real waste of money to me.

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