Morning Audibles

Cv is proud to introduce a new thread author at SC... (Charlie Wilson - waging a war of his own, you'll see)...

Charlie says: "JUST BECAUSE YOU'RE NOT FOR REAL... WHY U WANNA HURT ME?"...



Charlie (& his GAP BAND) are also wondering about some other things... (pay attention sucka)...


"The bigger the headache the bigger the pill
The doctor the bill..."

"Jack & Jill went up the hill to have a little fun
Stupid Jill forgot her pill and now they have a son"


"I was young & foolish
didn't know what I was dong
Didn't know what I'd lost
Until you were gone..."

Get up EARLY folks (outta bed - that means)... Lest you be condemmed to the (Brian) Sack...




 

212 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 212   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

@McF/Andy

(from other thread)

It's true that "P3" has been discussed on this blog many times...

I don't remember it as ever being referred to P3! P3! P3!

It's been a "conceptual" argument, here, for as long as I can remember... And Andy is absolutely correct, that NONE of the charts he's ever published (on this blog), have ever labeled a P3...

The idea of P3 is, though, kept alive (as a theoretical possibility)... And it should be... Why? Because if you look at charts of the past, P3's have happened before (according to how the theory is labeled)...

It is logical to assume that there is a possibility that something which has happened before, can (or will), happen at some point again in the future (given the "cyclical" nature of nature itself)... Ritholtz himself should appreciate that because he talks about cycles all the time...

But back to P3... If or when it does happen, it's likely that most people are ill prepared for the consequences... People knew (for days) that a hurricane was bearing down on New Orleans... Let's see... I've driven a car from Washington DC to Los Angeles before in 48 hours... So I'm wondering why there was all the chaos in New Orleans... Oh yeah - it was Bush's fault that people stayed in town...

What's so "scary" about world financial markets? The main problem is that it's a faith based system... Nowadays, the total amount of kinetic energy that could potentially be released onto a global system has reached complexity to the n'th... Warren Buffett himself called these derivatives WMD's...

So far, the financial system has managed to delay that trigger, but it's bound to be tripped sooner or later... probably when people least expect...

When you buy insurance policy for your car, you pay a premium that covers you wherever, or whenever... If you KNEW when, or where, you were going to get into an accident, and if it were possible, you might try avoiding paying insurance all the way up until the day on the calendar that you knew the accident was going to occur...

I call this blog SURVIVOR CAPITAL... It's called that because I like to think that enough 'logic' gets bantered about to motivate people to BE PREPARED...

It's NOT called SC because I when I buy that insurance policy for the car, I'm hoping that I'll get into a crash that day (so as to redeem the value of what I purchased - or before it expires worthless)...

M E Hoffer said...

"...The main problem is that it's a faith based system... Nowadays, the total amount of kinetic energy that could potentially be released onto a global system has reached complexity to the n'th..."

above, is a Key Point.

add in 'Political Instability/Risk' and it becomes, even, moreso..

sounds odd, but the best way to prepare, for these daze of the 21stC., is to be sure that one can 'hoe the row'--18thC.-estilio

if one wants to accept anything, on Faith, be assured that you don't want to be within this: "...it's likely that most people are ill prepared for the consequences..."-Probability sketch.

AAIP

McFearless said...

CV,

I try not to get in discussion anymore with the random bloggers that talk about P3 as if they've spent time understanding what it could mean, where the forecast comes from, etc. With the comment "if the market didn't go to 0 in 2008-09 then it's not going there now:"

1. This reveals a complete lack of any knowledge of wave theory, as nothing happens in "one move" and there was not one single wave theorist that I know that was calling for P3 in one move, it was a forecast that would last many years, not 18 months with very little to no credit deflation during the period relative to the amount of credit outstanding.
2. P3 is not a forecast for the market to go to 0, the very worst downside projections don't even put it there and well over a year ago many of us talking about P3 questioned some of the projections Prechter put out.

I would imagine there was someone in Rome that once made the same comment, that since markets hadn't gone to 0 they never would, and then of course, they watched markets go down there for 60 years, to 0.

to your point, exactly right, the P3 forecast isn't about being a "bear" at all and trying to make money on the short side, Prechter, the person that came up with the forecast, has very specifically warned that during P3 it is likely shorts will not all be paid, the whole premise of all the books Prechter has written over the years on the subject is to get yourself as safe as you possibly can, something that last I checked has basically been the best thing to do since he put the book out, it's the whole reason CTC was written to teach people how to get safe as possible so that when it's over you can participate in the huge bull market that is expected to follow.

I would bet on this blog here that maybe 3 or 4 of us tops, and I'm not even sure it's that many, that has made any preparation at all in case something like this happened where there were large runs on banks, credit completely froze up, insurance companies go under, there is a shortage of notes available, etc.

Why people would dismiss these risks right now and just go about their daily business after they've been made aware I don't really understand at all, but that's not my problem and people are going to have to live with their decisions for better or worse, kind of like folks that voted for change.

Anonymous said...

and, from the further reaches..

titles:
Here Comes the Global Currency “Conspiracy” – Now Confirmed
IMF blueprint for a global currency – yes really
America Plunging to Bankruptcy While DC Plays Politics as Usual
North American Union – “U.S. Super Spy Center” Uncovered in Mexico
Globalism, Think Tanks, and “The New World Order”
The Impotence of Elections
G20 Leaders Weigh ‘New Generation’ of Challenges to Global Government
found here
http://theintelhub.com/2010/10/12/420-banks-demand-1-world-currency/

under 'Related Posts'

AAIP

McFearless said...

CV,

it's also difficult to discuss such concepts with someone that so clearly believes in efficient markets, it's the only explanation for a comment such as this:

"The problem with a CA default crashing the markets thesis is that it is already a known quantity. No surprise there. Everyone knows CA and IL, among others, are in trouble. And Greece and Ireland etc."

If that one doesn't make you scratch your head I'm not sure anything will.

McFearless said...

OT:

The hardest thing to throw away is a full size garbage can.

Jennifer said...

Ha! A big sign taped to it saying "TAKE ME" has worked for me in the past.

CV said...

@McF

I kind of just get sick of people interpreting P3 to mean Mad Max...

As for me... What's the worse that could happen?

- OK, so the peanut butter that I buy, I eat 18 months from now (instead of tomorrow)...

- Because I grow tomatoes in the garden, I don't need to use up a gallon of gasoline to drive back and forth to the grocery store to buy tomatoes for my BLT sandwich... Representing a "savings" in terms of carbon footprint... AND a savings on the price of the tomatoes & gasoline... (I suppose it's MUCH WISER to shop at supermarkets and donate all your $$ to Obama, Gore, and all their "carbon tax" campaigns)... Because they're so "smart"...

I'm still wondering who attended to Michele Obama's "okra"... She was off in Spain and at Martha's Vineyard during the "growing season"...

See... That's why CV IS NOT SMART... I haven't figured out yet how to get the seeds to jump out of the bag themselves, land in perfect rows, on tilled soil, grow without watering or weeding, harvest themselves, jump into baskets, then jar themselves up in fancy little presentation coquettes...

That FLOTUS sure is a smart lady!

CV said...

@McF

"it is already a known quantity"...

Here's a list of historical references to other "known quantities"...

- The Roman Empire
- The Mayans
- The Egyptians
- The Sumerians
- The Habsburgs
- The NAZIs

"Knitting", I've heard, is a nice little hobby... Some people should consider partaking in it...

CV said...

@McF

OT... Why do you want to throw away the garbage can?

McFearless said...

I have 3 cans at the house, way too many, I've been trying for over a year now to get rid of this third one, the company that owned it doesn't exist anymore, I stuck it in my regular can over the summer, they pulled it out and put it back on the side of my house, lol.

call me ahab said...

b22-

I saw a TV show where the dude was talking about trying to throw away a trash can- so he put a note on the can saying "this is trash". When he got home- the note was gone-

lol

CV said...

Dude...

You should try your luck growing potatoes in them...

Fille them about 1/3 with some worked dirt mixed with a little peat... Drill 1/8" holes about a foot from the bottom all around (for drainage)...

This winter, just keep any kind of potatoes you like in the dark in a burlap sack in the basement... Come March, cut the ends where the EYE's ar (you'll see the growth starting)...

Put 'em in the trash can under the soil about a half inch to an inch... When the green stalks start to shoot up, let them get taller... Then keep adding more "filler" dirt as they get taller & taller... (Continue to water as needed - just fill to the point that you see the water pouring out of the holes you drilled - keep your seed potatoes ABOVE that line - of course)

By May or June, you'll finally see some stalks turning yellow...

Just dump out your dirt from the trash can... Voila! Your very own potatoes...

Anonymous said...

MackieFear,

clean it up, paint it, even, and put it under one of your Downspots..

you'd be surprised how quickly it fills up with Rain Water..

if you're worried about, various, 'Growths', during warmer weather, add a splash of Clorox..

a little goes a long way..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

Downspo(u)ts --that was, supposed, to be..

ibid.

CV said...

@McF

I'm probably missing some "larger" picture tho...

I mean... I'm sure that Obama has a much SMARTER way for me to get french fries...

Anonymous said...

CV,

is that before, or after, an 'Anti-Obesity'-Tax?

AAIP

CV said...

@AAIP (9:11)

x2

another great idea...

At the house (not the farm)... I grow a few things as well (and otherwise have the landscaping to manage)...

I actually have (6) 90 gallon trash cans daisy chained together in the basement... I funnel the water down (actually inside the house), thru the daisy chain of tanks, then finally to a sump...

Rigged to that... I can pump everything out to where it needs to go...

Average summers I can easily go thru 3,000 -4,000 gallons... Expensive if you're paying for city water... FREE when it comes off the roof...

(Farm is free always... WELL H2O)...

CV said...

@AAIP (9:19)

lol

well - when Obama starts to "legislate" what I do with the potatoes I grow on my own...

Then... well... I guess I'll just make "batteries" out of them... :-)

Pretty sure a "tax" on that will be forthcoming as well... :-)

CV said...

"if you're worried about, various, 'Growths', during warmer weather, add a splash of Clorox"

---

Don't really have to worry about that too much either... Now - standing water OUTSIDE is going to attract mosquitoes (and produce a lot of larvae)... Get a net and you have free fish food...

OR - I don't have to worry about that because I channeled the water indoors... If I were REAL crafty, I'd set up conduits to all the toilets...

CV said...

But I'm too lazy...

I'd rather sit on my @ss and dole out political advice to "inexperienced" people... :-)

wunsacon said...

Andy,

>> Note: I'm genuinely interested in how you view the "mechanics" of the money transfer from "lobbyists/banks" to the politicians.

I'm no expert on it. But:

- To win office, you already have to be rich enough to afford to take the risk of not earning an income for a couple of years. We're electing millionaires. Often, these politicians come from the FIRE industry, where they were "successful".

- Who's been most successful the past 20+ years in these fields? Thanks to bailouts years ago, the people who took the most biggest risks were promoted and the risk averse weren't. The risk-embracing bailout-ees of today are the politicians of tomorrow.

- Campaign donations back the person who's (already) expresses loyalty to the lobbyists.

- Marriage/family ties to banking sector. (Was it Maxine Waters or Pelosi who's hubbie's bank received bailout funds? Ech. It's probably most of Congress. Which politician *doesn't* have a family tie into auto dealership, real estate, banking, etc.?)

- Lobbyists take politicians on junkets to "educate" them on policies. Paid-for luxury travel.

- The legislative bills are written by the lobbyists, funded not by the little people but by the same rich interests that donate campaign money. (Nancy Pelosi has to "vote for the legislation before she knows what's in it".) Indeed, a politician who spends time reading/thinking about legislation -- instead of outsourcing it to the lobbyists -- is at a campaign disadvantage to the politician who does and who therefore spends a bigger pct of time on raising money.

Ech. Gotta head to work. All this means is that the well-heeled industries rig the game even more in favor of themselves.

karen said...

did you all have to go on a commenting rampage before I could get on line this morning!!

wunsacon said...

Oh, duh!

- DEALS. (How did Hillary make profitable commodity futures trades?) If the politicians play right by the lobbyists, they (or their family) are given an "in" on profitable deals.

CV said...

Is A 6.5% VAT Coming?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/65-vat-coming

---

See now... For all of you who think that I'm against Obama simply to be "against" him... You're wrong...

If Obama want's a VAT tax... Let's have a VAT tax...

This is another one of those things that automatically backfires (in "practice" vs. "logic")...

Democrats are FOR anything that can make government bigger (and to do that, they need to bring in revenue)...

The VAT tax achieves the exact opposite... Why? Because IN PRACTICE, it sends the economy underground... People find more efficient ways to transact to avoid paying these taxes...

In the end, it actually STARVES the government from income...

It's a LIBERTARIAN dream... Because most Libertarians already know how to transact in ways that involve minimum government intrusion...

karen said...

I find this to be a total joke.. "GM's IPO of common stock increased in size by 31% to meet strong demand" 11/17/2010 06:43:20 AM

check it out said...

what's up with the volume first thing this morning on SPY ?

karen said...

all i wanna do is take out yesterday's lows.. : )

karen said...

oh, you mean that 4 million up in the first 5 min?

CV said...

stocks... once again... DOWN (in silver)...

karen said...

Ambac, CDS and Geithner: It's AIG All Over Again

"The determinative factor for Dilweg seems to be the Geithner imperative of first paying the bank counterparties in the CDS and effectively repudiating similar guarantees on RMBS, which were destined to eat all of AFG's capital had the State of Wisconsin not intervened."

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/17/ambac-cds-and-geithner-its-aig-all-over-again

AmenRa said...

MUST...PUSH...MARKET...HIGHER...FOR...IPO...

karen said...

Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Another Touch of Irony
Posted by TraderMark
Well, thus far QE2 is a dud... 0 for 3. NY Governor Dudley again explicitly said they are manipulating markets... where in the Fed charter is that? In so many words ... we are taking $600B of Treasuries out of the marketplace, and with that money people can go into riskier assets.

Wow... just wow.

And when those risk assets blow up and conservative investors who are were in bonds are taken to the cleaners? Oh well... the Fed is just doing its just creating bubbles every 5-6 years (or in this case 2-3)

karen said...

JCG up another dollar and change today.. jcg is the new ?

karen said...

AR.. let's see if 1184 can be topped.

McFearless said...

hey thanks for the tips on the g-can guys, maybe I'll keep that beast after all.

if any of you are curious about the green this morning, let be the first to point you in the right direction

POMO

bigger than yesterdays

CV said...

@karen

Today's LOD was an exact "touch" of the LD from that "wtf" candle (yesterday's chart), and yesterdays LOD...

Just saying... That's what's happeing at the moment...

CV said...

@McF

does that meant that POMO is the new POMO?

McFearless said...

I'm just trying to let you know POMO's intrinsic value.

karen said...

this is positively sickening... WB's thankyou to Uncle Sam:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awa9wWBFjxQo

karen said...

JCG is on this list:

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/11/16/most-heavily-shorted-stocks.html

Matthew said...

WB has become a serious attention whore and a government cheerleader (and why not be a cheerleader for your biggest benefactor?). I try to ignore.

ben22 said...

...had been gripped by a “mass delusion” that house prices would never fall significantly - “delusions produce bubbles...this bubble was a doozy and its pop felt around the world,” Buffett added.

Mr. Buffett, the largest "mass delusion" is the one that continues on today. You are right in the middle of it and those that you congratulate in your letter are at the front lines of it. I hope for the everyday people of the US and for the country as a whole that you all go up in smoke.

- Your grateful serf, Ben.

karen said...

GM IPO: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8J86A711cAU

karen said...

mrtopstep

Henry Analytics [09:09:54 AM]: CRUDE: jan has a head and shoulders top formation on the 15- minute chart; the (cont) http://tl.gd/71692n

Ben22 said...

Matthew,

As the great Jack White said

Any man with a microphone can tell you what he loves the most.

karen said...

and from Invictus no less.. has to be a contrary indicator ; )

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/deja-vu-all-over-again-2/

ben22 said...

that post sucked karen, no political commentary.

karen said...

exactly when do the GM shares open on the free market?? e*trade has the symbol at the ready..

maybe the hfts can buy and sell to each other.. keep them occupied so the financials can tumble.

karen said...

POMO in process, ben.. watch out!

CV said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/535619/%22A-Lot-of-Losses-...-Investors-Havent-Seen-Yet%22%3A-Bank-Bear-Chris-Whalen-Sticks-to-His-Guns

ben22 said...

guys, got a call this morning from a big John, great guy but just really lost about markets and such

was wondering if we should by some "GMC Stock" as he referred to it

like we were saying a week ago, he'd put more thought into buying a car from them than he would buying the stock

just sayin, animal spirits are bubbling a little bit I think.

ben22 said...

I can feel it....I just rose up out of my chair a little bit.

POMO gets me lifted!

AmenRa said...

If Getco is the DMM for the IPO you can pretty much guarantee the HFTs will be having a field day.

karen said...

zerohedge

What is spot on popcorn futures ahead of GM flipapalooza?

(i guess it is just about out??)

CV said...

@Amen/McF

You can "see" it on the charts (spy)...

9 day... perfect ganns...

Looks like it's just hanging out doing a little BEAR FLAG here in the process...

Looks like it's perfectly timed out to fold in the IPO (at the end of the wedge of the bear flag)...

karen said...

I want to tell you all why i seriously dislike my iphone.. the landscape mode.. i absolutely hate it. if anyone knows how i can shut that off i would really appreciate it.

karen said...

Mark4124NH

Futures pits reporting Goldman is selling the S&P Dec Futures contract into 1179-1182

CV said...

@karen

don't turn your phone sideways... that ought to help!

ben22 said...

not sure who linked it the other day but I agreed with the comment that I wouldn't be much interested in buying stock in a company controlled by the gov.

Given the fact that we just learned the post office, for starters, bled the last fiscal year to the tune of about 8.5 billion it can't inspire much confidence in the CEO(s)

or Czars....if you prefer.

karen said...

CV, the iphone has a mind of its own.. and when it is flat on a table, it doesn't know sideways from straight.. likewise, in bed.. using it lying down is the worst! oh, and then there is the fact that 30% of the time it can't find service.

CV said...

Here's the visual on the GANN BEAR FLAG I was talking about...

new chart in thread

CV said...

@ben22

Fannie? Freddie?

real winners there too!

CV said...

@ben22

It's all about enriching the companies that have a bunch of unionized labor...

votes bitchez!

CV said...

chicago politics at it's finest!

karen said...

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/a-quick-look-at-the-key-levels-in-gold-and-silver/

Overnight low in gold was 1330 and 25.02 in silver, fyi

karen said...

mrtopstep

Henry Analytics [10:08:35 AM]: $CL_F #futures #options #CRUDE- Open interest was down 55k yesterday. partly #option related though.

ben22 said...

Karen,

i'd advise switching to a razr, ror. Tiny old school screen, none of that fancy landscape stuff.

karen said...

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

E*Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC) reported average trading volume slid 18% in October from a year earlier but rose 14% from the month before.

Industrywide, 2010 trading volume has fallen from year-earlier levels after stocks slumped to a bottom in March 2009 before rebounding sharply.

The electronic broker said October's daily average revenue trades were 145,311. E*Trade added 4,167 U.S. brokerage accounts in October, bringing its customer base to 2.7 million. A year earlier, it added 3,102 accounts.

Total customer assets were $165.9 billion, up 19% from a year earlier and 4.1% from the prior quarter as stocks continue to rally.

Inflows in October were $800 million, compared with $300 million in September and zero a year earlier.

In October, E*Trade swung to a second consecutive quarterly profit as it set aside less money for current and future potential losses.

CV said...

Here's a guy who sees things, in many ways, similar to CV...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chris-martenson-and-james-howard-kunstler-explain-how-world-going-get-rounder-and-bigger-aga

ben22 said...

I've had a boatload of meetings lately, busiest time of the year is right now, it would seem in general business got really slow again in october based on anecdotal things I'm hearing. Who knows though, Philly data has generall been weaker lately so it could just be that. meet with the CFO of a newspaper/ad agency tonight, curious to hear what he tells me about biz, they were very busy this summer I know.

CV said...

@karen

I'm thinking you might find one of these fones easier to use...:-)

new foto in thread

Mosquitos and water said...

FWI - Another solution to stop mosiquitos and other water lavae laying insects is to put in a little vegetable oil. It will float to the top and act as a barrior to both insects getting into the water and out of.

If the water has any flow to it, it will take the oil with it, so more oil may need to be added, if it is standing water, like in a barrel, bugs will get caught in the oil, but are easy to skim off.

Also the vegatable oil is not harmful is consumed.

Just an FYI

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

no.. cv..

CV said...

@karen

no on what? the fone? or the article?

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fdic’s-bair-bury-losses

karen said...

the phone! hey, i just went to match.com.. it is kind of fun! where some of these fellows really, ah, distinguish themselves, is in their "story" or written profile.. this could be my new pastime.. : )

McFearless said...

from the new KOL, my favorite song on the album:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdYtJ2H2-IU

and a little EC:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aAG9iGCBa8

rockin song there

karen said...

Fla. woman is diagnosed as state's first cholera case transmitted from Haiti after visiting disease-stricken nation http://bit.ly/dcHuJT

CV said...

@karen (11:56)

CV rolls eyes...

Yeah... all the guys there are basically the same snakes who try to get you from the barstool to the sack in record time...

Under the guise of...

- I like long walks on the beach
- holding habds
- spooning
- european vacations
- antique hunting

BARF...

k- it's easy to find that kind of guy... Where? He's one of your girlfriends...

McFearless said...

80% of the time Match.com works every time

Fact.

CV said...

@McF

I used to use Match (when I lived in Italy), to go out for the weeks or month or so I was back in the states...

The profiles are hilarious...

Every other woman was like... "I can go from jeans & a t-shirt to high heels and a cocktail dress in 3 seconds flat)...

Great! But I'm more interested in how quickly you can go from clothed to naked!

Also... the ones with their sports jersey fotos... The old TEAM SPIRIT! Right?

Let me tell you... The LAST thing I want next to me at game time is a girl in a pink football jersey talking "cover 2" defenses...

Let me watch the game in peace! :-)

karen said...

I just found this fellow.. Phil Torcivia.. he is the author of several books, "Such a Nice Guy" and "Still a Nice Guy." He has two cats, loves Cashmere, dark chocolate, wine and Italy!! How could I go wrong, LOL.. he lives 20 miles to the south.. too bad he doesn't surf : (

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1450557929/ref=s9_simh_gw_p14_d0_i1?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=center-2&pf_rd_r=06RRX5ZEVYXD5JND7Q57&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=470938631&pf_rd_i=507846

karen said...

oops on crude...

karen said...

His bio from Amazon: Torcivia is a divorced man who transplanted himself from Pennsylvania into the treacherous dating pool in Southern California. His feline companions, Syd and Symon, share his home in San Diego and an occasional dish of leftover tuna. Torcivia loves nothing better than bellying up to the bar with his favorite social lubrication (wine) and watching the bizarre mating rituals of the locals, which he translates into humorous essays. He has been single long enough to be involved in a few train wrecks of his own, admitting that he's "one relationship disaster away from a third cat."

McFearless said...

CV,

yeah, my profile on there would be hilarious

Likes:

Frou Frous
Snuggies
Math


If I were single though I'd do it, I work too much, it would be hard for me to meet someone.

Jennifer said...

My brother-in-law just got married in August. He met his wife on Match.com.

McFearless said...

A passage from one of my fav books The Numbers Game:

News is filled with the cult of shock figure, numbers that demand amazement or alarm. A number comes along that looks bad, awe-inspiringly bad, much worse than we had thought; big, too, bigger than guessed; or radically different from all we thought we knew.
Resist. When a number appears that's out of line with others, it tells us one of three things; a; this is an amazing story, b; the number is wrong, c; is has been misinterpreted. Two out of three mean the story is wasting your time, because the easiest way to say something shocking with figures is to be wrong. Outliers - numbers that don't fit the mold - need especial caution: their claims are large, the stakes are high, and so the proper reaction is neither blanket skepticism, nor slack-jawed credulousness, but demand for a higher standard of proof.


did someone say green shoots?

Jennifer said...

Of course, he had to register twice, the second time under a slightly different name, because he was rejected the first time due to mental health issues. (Maybe this was eHarmony?)

Jennifer said...

Karen -- I have another brother-in-law. He's cute (no comment on mental health issues though) and in excellent shape. You could get married and we could be related. Bring something good for Thanksgiving :-) I'll supply the wine.

Jennifer said...

I suspect the surfing in Lake Michigan sucks though. Watch out for Asian carp. When they jump out of the water, they break peoples' noses.

karen said...

fantastic passage, ben!

hmm, my criteria keep giving me "no matches."

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40233849

Even the Affluent Live Close to Margin: Survey

"As a result, the well-to-do are keeping their retirement savings liquid in bank accounts and certificates of deposit so the funds will be available for emergencies, says the study, titled "Money on the Sidelines." The report is slated for release on Wednesday, Nov. 17, but Reuters obtained a copy early.

"There's a high cost to this liquidity," says Robert Sollmann Jr. of MetLife. "They are putting their retirement security at risk by not putting their money back to work in the stock market."

....or, just perhaps, they don't have as much money as they did in 1998 or 2007 because of excessive risk in the stock market...did we ask this question of the affluent????

karen said...

KidDynamiteBlog

PROPERTY REPORT: Deutsche Bank to Be Casino Owner - http://on.wsj.com/dxEbX3 sold to you, SUCKA!
2 minutes ago via bitly

karen said...

http://blog.chart.ly/flash-crash-season-two/

Jennifer, thanks for your sweet and generous offer! LOL..

karen said...

this guy is always so bullish: gtotoy

$SPY ...scary inside day building , be carefull people

McFearless said...

"There's a high cost to this liquidity," says Robert Sollmann Jr. of MetLife. "They are putting their retirement security at risk by not putting their money back to work in the stock market."


lol....it feels good to be an outcast in your own industry sometimes.

karen said...

it was the PH.D. requirement, laughing.. removed it.. just found a cricket playing englishman, fancy that!

CV said...

That article that I linked from ZH is getting "pummeled" in the comment section...

Sometimes the ZH crowd is rather odd...

They harp on one idea like "peak oil" and immediately want to discredit everything...

I have no opinion on "peak oil"... I do have an opinion that there are too many people in the world...

OR rather... 6 billion (and growing) people can't live like the western standard of living has for the past 40 years...

It won't happen... There WILL be a "resource shock"... Industrialization has run its course...

Past civilizations had slaves... There were slaves in this era as well... When that ended, they went after children, and immigrants... When that ended, they "outsourced"... Now the OUTSOURCING countries (like China), are simply doing the next batch of outsourcing (Africa, Middle East, poorer neighbors)...

It's still all SLAVERY... But we're running out of slaves, and using up too many resources in the process... It will eventually fold in on itself...

So these "ideas" that this guy has (on smaller communities, less resource utilization), REALLY ARE the only hope for survival...

Unless they happen through effort, they will be FORCED to happen (via collapse)...

It's amazing to me that people don't see this...

Olleevah said...

CV has crickets on his farm... you two should hook up and have a daily simulcast during the market hours... kind of like a 2010's green acres... reality TV at its best!

CV, do you have any arnolds running around your farm?

CV said...

@karen

I can't fathom a CRITERIA based search...

Good god... sounds like you're shopping for a computer...

karen said...

CV, hahaha, i just found a hot bodied geologist!!

CV said...

@Ollevah

Only Arnold's I know are that dude that governed California, Fred Fred Flintstone's paperboy, and the diner that Ritchie, Fonzie, Potsy, & Ralph Malph used to hang out at...

CV said...

@karen

"i just found a hot bodied geologist!!"

Good for you... I hope he helps you to GET YOUR ROCKS OFF!

McFearless said...

here's your money at work in the stock market in recent history:

Dec 31, 1999: DOW = 10,877.81
Nov 17, 2010: DOW = 11,027.74

I'll let you do the math on that one vs. cash over the same period, don't forget to add your massive dividends in there!

people's blind obsession with the stock market remains at historically insane levels despite the worst decade in US market history. it's amazing how long it takes the rising tide of social mood over 50+ years to die.

Anonymous said...

McH
you really should be short bank stocks

CV said...

@McF (12:56)

Probably 75% of what I watch on TV is sports... But the idea is re-inforced constantly...

Every other commercial is TD Ameritrade, or E-Trade, Fidelity, or some other financial promising you a "nest egg"...

People are naturally drawn to the ILLUSION of SECURITY...

Anonymous said...

oops, last post was for McF

McFearless said...

which bank stocks though?, I caught some action on WL, that was pretty exciting...I'm very hesitant though to be short any of the big names right now, WL is not JPM or BAC.

Not saying that those couldn't be hugely profitable short sales, but it's a very high risk bet, maybe there are higher probability trades in the near term here, I'm still expecting one last rally leg that should be pretty big here.

McFearless said...

CV,

I have one of those commercials I really like, it's the new Schwab commercial where the guy is basically saying I just need someone to help show me how to do this in a practical way, I don't want someone asking me about whether or not I want to start a vineyard in retirement....c'mon, a vineyard?

it's a great commercial and it's exactly what the industry is like, it's especially funny to me b/c my company put this thing out a few years ago where we were to ask clients to tell us about their "dreams" in a book, they say you tend to attract clients in this business that are like you, similar personality, I thought this book idea from my company was some fluffy garbage from the start and I didn't want to have people fill out some fairy tale book that had no practical chance of happening in real life, funny thing is I didn't have to, most of my clients, I guess being like me, thought it was dumb and wouldn't fill the book out.

One of them told me very plainly....you know what I dream about.....not running out of money, that's what I'm paying you for.

McFearless said...

Full Disclosure: I don't work at Chuck but I like that company a lot. I've considered becoming an RIA there a lot recently.

karen said...

topstep video, Tim:

http://www.optionmonster.com/drj_blog/article.jsp?page=drj_blog/mr_topnotch_on_futuresmonster_tv_on_spx_51065.html

karen said...

interesting chart.. http://blog.chart.ly/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/SPYdaily.png

karen said...

zerohedge

GETCO guarantees GM will not drop. If it does, GETCO will internalize all offers with Citadel. And from there it goes straight to Liberty 33

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/dear-uncle-sucker/

Anonymous said...

McF, to start... RF, I have a zillion puts on this right now, taking some off the table though. started buying puts in april, may, can't remember.

when they run up some, I buy more puts. RF is a very crappy bank and I think this is the bank that can't pay back the TARP loan. Also, all their higher management keep quiting every-so-often. 3 more just quit...lol, guess they take the job and once in... see they can't fix a broken bank

karen said...

(great analogy!!) gtotoy

RT @1nvestor The market feels like a skipping rock on water. You know what happens when it stops. $$ :-)

McFearless said...

is ironic the right word to describe the fact that panels are telling congress that china is manipulating their currency while our federal reserves attempts to manipulate the world's largest economy at the very same time?

karen said...

it would be really neat if the $bkx would revert to its downtrend.. that would confuse a lot of bulls..

McFearless said...

regions....that's a florida bank right?

met an old lady two years ago that had over a million dollars at that bank, told her to move it all out, wonder if she did.

McFearless said...

nice trade anon, btw, that chart looks like shet since april....seriously.

karen said...

uh-oh, i would prefer to see the dow stop right here at 11040..

72bat said...

k -
re "hot bodied geologist!!" hope it's not a hydrogeologist in norcal. my soon-to-be ex-brother-in-law is not prime material. nice enough guy, but probably too immature and erratic.
and really, a cricket-playing englishman, isn't that also on your list of things you don't need ;^)
how about posting your "criteria" for a group evaluation?

McFearless said...

Neely be the man, targets hit on this most recent trade which is maybe a week old now, cashed out for $2,000 profit per contract on the trade.

that GN, he's so hot right now!

Anonymous said...

McF

here's the TARP news on RF (still owes $3.5B)

another crap bank is STI

karen said...

bat.. the geologist was in so cal.. i was going for a 60 mile radius of my zip code.. and my criteria were for fun.. he had to make $150k+ for instance.. age 48-54.. 51 is even too old for me, i can assure you, lol.

karen said...

3.5B is a lot of $$$..

McFearless said...

alright, it's time to look at RF books then and recent filings, if they still owe 3.5 I'd love to know what kind of assets they have....if any.

very likely they are insolvent, as if that's news....but apparently it would be to the stock.

karen said...

For his part, our own Todd Harrison thinks Buffett might be expressing his thanks a bit too early in a still unfolding narrative. “A multi-billionaire sending a "thank you" letter to the government for bailing him out and making him (further) billions?” Harrison writes today in his morning missive. “There's little doubt that the government "bought the cancer and sold the car crash" but that script continues to be written and it's a bit early for hat tips."

http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/rich-elderly-white-man-gives/

karen said...

i hear china is down 11% in four sessions.. just sayn'

karen said...

i guess $ssec can rally tonight and aid the GM IPO..

McFearless said...

It's evident now that Charlie and Warren could give a shit about anything but money. I found the letter just as disgusting as you did Karen. They've always been this way but social mood ignored it, we wanted to exalt our market heros and all those associated with that culture, slowly social mood is desiring to ruin that persona.

I bet WB is outed before this is all over for the fraud he's participated in, the most recent being his accounting tricks with unclaimed losses that nobody seems to care about.

I'm sad to say I used to think WB was "the man"

Anonymous said...

I had these banks scribbled on a piece of paper from months ago that seemed to be good shorts...

MI
ZION
RF
KEY
SNV
FHN
BPOP
STI

they were probably losing money, or owed TARP and most likey couldn't repay it back in the near future, or the fundamentals looked like crap, or ALL of the above...
out for the day... happy trading.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I am afraid I always considered Buffett a little more pathetic than heroic. As a variety of Scrooge rather than Horatio Alger...

If philanthropy was on his mind, he'd have already given his money away.

...My 2 cents...

AmenRa said...

Karen

That rock is about to stop skipping.

Not a Geologist said...

Karen - I am not a geologist, I live about 800miles (One way) from you, I can write a check for over $150,000 (as long as you don't cash it) I don't fall into that age range, but I am old a crochity and for fun I like to go to frozen food section of wall mart and fill the cart, then go to the beer section grab a 6 pack, place it on top of the frozen food (You know to keep it cool) and walk around looking for oversized people, once I run out of beer I like to find a clothing rack to push the cart under and take a nap.

On a scale of 1 to 10, what are my chances?

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

Mutt.. too funny!

karen said...

anyone watching crude?!

karen said...

shhhh.. it sometimes leads the indices, lol..

karen said...

i've got the shivers.. check out the crude chart leading up to the flash crash.. check out the first may candle

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL

karen said...

Alea_ Gold to Fall 25-30% in 18 Months: Analyst
http://goo.gl/QBWMn

karen said...

maybe they will postpone the GM IPO till next week?? seems like a good plan to me..

karen said...

okay.. i'll go back to match.com then.. : P

McFearless said...

the blago look-alike just got to the office to talk to Johnny BEE DO in the back (who is really loving life lately btw).

this is the guy that famously stated when I asked him if he had any concern over muni's in 2008, specifically his companies EANAX product:

"there aren't problems, and if they are, then Ambac comes in to fix them"

I swalled a whole pizza crust on that one liner

he said hello in my door just now and then "we still up today?, markets been doing great"

lol, G$$$$$$$I$$$$$$$$$B

karen said...

I'm DYING!! just found my neighbor.. my very next door neighbor on match.com!

karen said...

he is NOT 6'0, and NOT even divorced yet!

karen said...

okay, well i think that was enuf to keep me off match.com for EVER.

72bat said...

question is, can your neighbor see YOU on match.com? better draw the curtains

Anonymous said...

Karen

here's my match.com profile

72bat said...

you know, forgetting to put on more than just panties when you sit down in front of your monitor with your first cuppa

McFearless said...

better watch that social mood:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nacas-bruce-marks-goes-postal-jpm-crony-during-yesterdays-fraudclosure-hearing

karen said...

bat, please I did not fill out a profile on match.com !!! you can look for nothing..

those dos equis commercials are hilarious! i don't ever remember even seeing one, and now i know where that expression comes from.. thanks, anon.

karen said...

look at that bac chart over the last six months.. tell me it isn't insolvent.. i know the market isn't smart.. but come on..

between match.com and the market, i've just made myself sick..

okay, i'm visualizing that skipping rock..

Anonymous said...

karen said...
thanks, anon.

Do you want my phone # now?

72bat said...

k -
shows what i know. assumed in order to see others' profiles on match.com you need to reciprocate and fill out a profile to join. can't tell you how relieved we all are that you haven't put yourself out there "on the market". ;^}

karen said...

conorsen

There is a special place in hell for corporatists (Buffett, Gross, TBTF bankers) who espouse mkt principles while taking taxpayer backstops.

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
karen said...

i thot this was a joke but apparently not!

Obama to award Warren Buffett Medal of Freedom

WASHINGTON | Wed Nov 17, 2010 2:45pm EST
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama will name Warren Buffett as one of fifteen winners of the 2010 Medal of Freedom, a White House official said on Wednesday.

Buffett, one of the world's most successful investors who has donated a vast chunk of his multibillion dollar fortune to charity, will receive the medal at a White House ceremony early next year. The award is the highest U.S. civilian honor.

Buffett is one of Obama's closest defenders in the business community and the president has sought his counsel dating back to the 2008 presidential campaign and since.

CV said...

@karen

"okay, well i think that was enuf to keep me off match.com for EVER."

LMAO :-)

See? What did CV tell you?... But nobody wants to listen...

Jennifer said...

So...I'm scrolling through comments at another blog...and I read the same skipping rock comment there. Sink already!

karen said...

Jenn.. is this fast enuf for you?

karen said...

1178 needs to go, for heaven's sake!

CV said...

(3:05)

More PTB, slapping themselves on the back, and congratulating themselves for being masters of the universe...

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nobel-peace-prize-recipient-award-buffet-medal-freedom-most-successful-circle-jerk-execution

Jennifer said...

Well, that paid for my post lunch shopping spree.

CV said...

@karen

You don't want it to sink NOW...

You want to wait for the IPO tomorrow... Watch the market GAP UP in wild anticipation, then come crashing down at EOD thru Friday...

That's what you want...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40236628

Bernanke: Bond-Buying Could Create 700,000 Jobs


"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that the Fed's $600 billion economic aid program could create 700,000 jobs over two years."

Holy Tongue-Lashing Batman..the Fed chairman sounds like the President or any other politico running for office and promising government spending is the answer!

...obviously does not read the proper blogs...

McFearless said...

So, in a round about way WB gets to steal from the public via misguided bailouts funded with public money that helps him stay solvent and he gets the "highest civilian honor" as a result?

Huh?

Maybe I should hit a few people on my way home tonight, see what kind of award I could get for that. In the GIB that might be worthy of a Purple Heart or something.

All these people giving each other awards, the government is so Hollywood, it's like the Oscars where they all sit around and talk about how awesome they are, giving each other standing o after standing o, all of them thinking that each simple phrase they utter is a groundbreaking statement that the entire world should stop and listen to. And then they cry as the revel in their own awesomeness.

Jennifer said...

CV -- while intuitively, I think that scenario for Fri/Mon should work, I have a gigantic black star on my calendar for November 22nd -- it just wants to be an up day. No reason, just likes to go up on November 22nd.

CV said...

The ZH line... (Obama & Buffett)

"Yes, it's official. The whole has gone crazy. The rape and pillage of the middle class is now awarded with prizes and medals..."

Classic!

Hey - Maybe Tyler Durden can pee in the bisque at the awards ceremony luncheon?

McFearless said...

I can't even fit the number 600 billion in my 12-C....just sayin.

CV said...

@Jennifer

11/22 was the day of the Kennedy Assassination...

I've long looked thru my change for a $1 FRN with the serial number #11221963 (with a "K" from the FRB of Dallas)...

Figure that ought to be worth something as a novelty collectors item...

CV said...

If nothing else... it's a FULL HOUSE in Liars Poker (aces over 2's)...

karen said...

have you guys done the math on that??? 600B for 700K in jobs.. LOL.. how many people are in the US? something near 310 million..

this is all surreal!

CV said...

@McF

"I can't even fit the number 600 billion in my 12-C....just sayin."

---

See... That's why you need to upgrade from a RAZR to karens i-phone... It's the SOLE purpose for the landscape function...

Hey karen... Maybe that needs to go on your "Match" profile...

Damsel inel in distress, needs help in getting landscape function of i-Phone to work...

Maybe you could land Steve Jobs!

McFearless said...

by the close the day after JFK was killed you'd have been down if you were short, pretend that the devil came to you in disguise the day before the event, told you what was going to happen and told you that he'd give you a million dollars to make a bet in the market with the information he'd given you.

how would you have bet? Why would you have bet the way you did?

this is that whole thing about outside events not changing trends I bring up, oh, from time to time.

now imagine the devil comes to you again, but this time he's got a beard and a suit and several trillion dollars


place yer bets!

McFearless said...

Karen,
exactly! you consider the math on that and the statement itself is so nutso you can't do anything but laugh, of course, most people are going to look at that and see a 7 on the jobs number and a 6 on the QE2 number.

it's that whole idiot bubble thingy

karen said...

Nov 22.. JCG earnings release.. LOL..

karen said...

i think everyone in the US with a SS# should get an even piece of that 600B.. in exchange for the SS benefits we will never see...

Jennifer said...

Closed my NTAP puts yesterday...darn.

CV said...

@McF (3:25)

The only deal that CV would ever make with the devil would be for a Frobisher & Gleason Raspberry Flavoured Ice Lolly

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUjhRIBluGc

McFearless said...

oh look POMO back, no its PPT

no, it's Nassim Taleb black swaning everyone...faker!

ah seriously, we all had to endure that stuff, I hope the rest of you are laughing like I am, this has to be fun sometimes.

CV said...

@karen

"in exchange for the SS benefits we will never see"...

Didn't you get the memo?

They're going to get the key to the lock box that all that SS $$ is in, and buy shares of the GM IPO with it tomorrow...

Your SS will be paid to you in the form of you living out of your car for the rest of your life...

They've thought of everything!

McFearless said...

CV,

that's not a bad idea, use SS money to buy GM shares...imagine how many jobs that would create.

Imagine, just for a minute, that if we just printed say, 1 fafillion jobs, we could probably get the whole world to 0% unemployment right, its easy if you try.

karen said...

you realize we have claims, leading indicators, and the philly fed tomorrow..

karen said...

mrtopstep

early chatter? = looks like a sel

karen said...

oh, and did i mention the GM IPO?

CV said...

@I-Man

a chart for the I-Man to admire...

new chart in thread

CV said...

Cv sez...


wait for the "pointy pointy" on that bear flag...

If it breaks out BELOW (before), it'll come back up... If it breaks out ABOVE... Trace it to the next fibo & sell...

AmenRa said...

McF

Can't have four days of POMO where all days ended red. Can we? {snark}

CV said...

@Amen

Are u saying POMO has lost its OOMP(H)?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

857,143 dollars per job...

What the hell is this person talking about said...

dss said...

We are headed for a YOYO economy. Everyone for themselves will be the new rallying cry.

November 17, 2010 2:49 PM
--

One must ask the question: Has it ever been any different that? Is it not natural to take care of yourself first and then worry about others.

What kind of drivel is this?

Pfft.

McFearless said...

Ra,

no, impossible with four days of POMO, it's like pixie dust, total magic.

CV said...

@Amen

I was looking at the WEEKLY 3lb's...

You know the market is threatening to do a weekly reversal there...

More interestingly... The LEVEL of that reversal was just about at the top level of the candle the week after the flash crash...

Market never made it back there all summer (until this last 2 weeks before QE2 hub bub)...

CV said...

@what the hell

"taking care of yourself first" is what's taught in all EMERGENCY RESPONSE situations...

It's even the first thing you are told to do in an airplane upon sudden loss if cabin pressure...

It is the most natural of all response scenarios...

McFearless said...

@What the hell,


what the hell indeed, that's the way the world's always been, you'd think someone from the bronze age would understand that by now, she's probably been seeing exactly that longer than any of us have been alive, might not have gotten it into a spreadsheet just yet though.

Garden of Eden....she saw that too.

CV said...

@McF

On my Yahoo page today, there was a link to an article that the Hubble telescope found a galaxy that was estimated to be 13 billion years old...

I think grandma must have been around for the formation of that galaxy... lol

karen said...

i'll check back later! thanks for sharing this day with me.. no one else would believe me if I told them what had transpired.. and i couldn't have made it thru WB's thank you, let alone his medal of freedom announcement, without your support..

further, the 700k jobs for 600B.. i'm still in a swoon..

CV said...

@McF

& on that same topic...

QE2 = about $50 bucks (per year) on the entire time existence of the aforementioned galaxy...

about 13 cents per day...

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