Morning Audibles

Government Motors IPO hitting the streets and futures are pointing massively green... You know... They say that nobody "rings the bell" at the top... But this really has me wondering...

I mean, think about it, a company that was bankrupt (in an American industry that has basically been bankrupt for more than 40 years, requiring numerous bailouts)... That is majority owned by the US Government (which has presided over other such profit BLACK HOLES as The Unites States Postal Service, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and others)... Now wants to hoist worthless equity share stakes onto the public... The pubic is supposed to soak up these worthless shares using worthless Federal Reserve Notes (of which the Fed has to "monetize" to the tune of over $100 each month just to keep the Federal debt serviced)...

Note: Here is "10 months of supply" (in $100 bill units)

Well... I decided to test for myself if this "they don't ring a bell at the top" was really true or not...

FAMOUS BELL RINGERS IN HISTORY


The "con job" going on with this IPO feels more like this enthusiastic "bell ringer"


General Motors Returns to NYSE After Raising $20 Billion in IPO

EXCERPT
"The offering from GM came 16 months after it emerged from bankruptcy and brings Chief Executive Officer Dan Akerson closer to his goal of returning the $49.5 billion the automaker received in a taxpayer bailout last year..."

Translation: "Yeah, about as close as taking one "hundo" off the stack above and doing a line of blow with it..." What the hell is all this crap about on GM anyway? (awww - it must have been EBONICS, he meant "votes" not "volts")...

What's Driving Obama's Subsidies of Chevy VOTES VOLTS?

EXCERPT
"General Motors, an appendage of the government, which owns 61 percent of it, is spending some of your money, dear reader, on full-page newspaper ads praising a government brainstorm - the Volt, Chevrolet's highly anticipated and prematurely celebrated (sort of) electric car. Although the situation is murky - GM and its government masters probably prefer it that way - it is unclear in what sense GM has any money that is truly its own. And the Volt is not quite an electric car, or not the sort GM deliberately misled Americans into expecting.


The newspaper ads proclaim, "Chevrolet Runs Deep"...

Translation: Yeah - So does ICE CUBE's "Jimmy" (so deep it'll put your butt to sleep), says IC...

"Whatever that means, if anything, it does not mean the Volt runs deep into a commute or the countryside just on electricity.


The Volt was conceived to appease the automotive engineers in Congress, which knows that people will have to be bribed, with other people's money, to buy this $41,000 car that seats only four people (the 435-pound battery eats up space)."

Translation: Hence commodity prices, and more earth scraping needed... MUCH MORE, in fact!

Rothschild Buys Indonesian Coal Stakes for $3 Billion

"GM says that, battery-powered, the Volt has a 40-mile range. Popular Mechanics says 33. Thomas R. Kuhn, president of the Edison Electric Institute, the trade association of the electric utility industry, is, understandably, a Volt enthusiast: This supposedly "green" vehicle will store electric energy - 10 to 12 hours of charging on household current - produced by coal- and gas-fired power plants.


In April, in a television commercial and a Wall Street Journal column headlined "The GM Bailout: Paid Back in Full," GM's then-CEO Ed Whitacre said "we have repaid our government loan, in full, with interest, five years ahead of the original schedule." Rubbish.


GM, which has received almost $50 billion in government subventions, repaid a $6.7 billion loan using other federal funds, a TARP-funded escrow account. Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) called this a "TARP money shuffle." A commentator compared it to "paying off your Visa credit card with your MasterCard


But those who thought the ethanol debacle defined outer limits of government foolishness pertaining to automobiles were, alas, mistaken."

Oh well... Maybe these things will just GROW ON US eventually... Right? But be advised, if you're having a party in Atlanta, (and the beer is in TEXARKANA)... Well son, that's 900 miles (each way)... 900 x 2 = 1,800... divided by 33 miles a pop = 54.5 "recharging" stops...  Times 12 hours a charge = 655 hours of charging time (not including all the driving time)... 27 days! Plan accordingly! (Needless to say, these Volts are for when you have "nowhere to go, and a long time to get there")...

EAST BOUND & DOWN


Oh, and remember, you can't have a "Bandit 2" without a "Bandit 1" (for haulin' the booty)... Rumors have it that Obama has ordered the construction of the first prototype...


Working on the "ad campaign" as well... Going with the South Korean model (because rapping hamsters are all the rage)...

Rapping Hamsters Help Kia Allay Quality Concerns

EXCERPT
"Rapping hamsters and unemployment near a 26-year high are helping Kia Motors Corp. log record sales in the U.S. even as its cars plummet in quality surveys"

However, Obama is reportedly taking a different tact with the hamsters... He's going to use them to increase power in the TURBO models...


HorseHamster Power bitchez!

Brian Sack has been a busy little hamster I see...

IZZY

IZZY's UNIQUE POV
"I calls 'em as I sees 'em" (says Izzy)

160 comments:

ben22 said...

The skies above Delaware are the skies of the Democratic Party
The land of Delaware is the land of Socialism

Actually, we like this kind of socialism.

ben22 said...

should probably point out, that post is in relation to the video Andy linked last night, which I found interesting, if that's the word.

CV said...

Socialism works until you run out of other peoples money to spend...

Then you just print...

CV said...

But I ought to stand aside and let grandmas, and people who have been doing this for longer than CV has been alive to explain all the merits...

Anonymous said...

CV,

that whole 'Experience'-rap amazes me..

it isn't like these weren't the same a**holes that were "on watch", during the Sovietization..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

O, btw, nice piece on Government Motors, I used a snip of it @ TBP ..

AAIP

CV said...

@AAIP

I realize that using George Will kind of paints a slanted picture of things...

But really...

The issue to me, as always, is to simply apply common sense...

- USPS
- Fannie
- Freddie

Now the Government wants to build cars? Didn't the YUGOSlavians try that?

And wasn't it in 2006, (when the Pelosi led Congress came into majority), that "ethanol" was supposed to solve all out worries?

- $41,000 to buy a 4 seater that goes 33 miles before you have to charge it for 12 hours??...

- a 435 pound battery requiring the strip mining of the planet for the copper & rare earths to build it???? Hell, most people would be happy with an iPhone that kept it's charge longer than an hour so...

- a decrepit energy grid (over 80% supplied by coal & gas - of which only 50% of that burned to make a watt ever makes it to a light bulb?)...

C'MON MAN!

Government Motors ought to just bring back the "Jimmy"...

http://brochures.slosh.com/1977gmc/jimmy1.jpg

Because they sure know how to bend Americans over and exactly where to stick that "Jimmy"...

CV said...

Sugar up 6.8%
Cocoa up 5.2%

I sure hope grandma bought some SWISS FRANCS, or SWISS GOLD with her dollars these past few days, otherwise she won't be having any SWISS MISS with her catfood...

Matthew said...

Good thing they didn't ring the bell at the top; they rev'ed a Camaro engine instead of ringing the opening bell, I've heard.

McFearless said...

"US STOCKS-Wall St opens higher on Ireland optimism"

Plenty of "causes" to pick from today from the msm whores.

CV said...

"Ireland optimism"

4 leaf clovers bitchez!

CV said...

other "causes"...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp3Dt1Nk3WE&feature=related

Matthew said...

@McFearless:

It is always amusing to hear which single news item the MSM picks to explain a move. They have actually created this lore in the public mind.

Friends tend to ask me, "Why'd the market make such a big move today." They assume that I will give them a headline. My response is always the same--relative alacrity of buyers and sellers (i.e., who is willing to make the biggest price concessions to complete their transactions).

I also have an issue with use of the phrase "the market." It is exclusively used to refer to the U.S. equity market (I think), even though "the market" could be used to refer to things like various credit markets (more important than equity markets unless you ask Bernanke), housing markets, or even used car markets.

Maybe they should start referred to it as THE market (like Ohio State is THE Ohio State University to people in that cult).

CV said...

@Matthew

or "The U" (university of Miami), whose symbol is in the same shape of a horseshoe...

Ironically though... The Ohio State Buckeyes football stadium in Columbus, Ohio is called...

"the horseshoe"...

hmmm...

karen said...

morning! I overslept.. hope I didn't hurt GM's feelings.. very unimpressive so far.. in both volume and price.. this market isn't getting the love.. and the $$$ seems to be looking for exits.

CV said...

11/3-11/4 spx gap

11/15-11/16 spx gap

both the same place...

Howz THAT 'splainin' 4 ya?

I-Man said...

Quick! Everyone BUY!

(Psych!!!)

Sold to you, Johnny boy...

Rev the Cam, Ring the Bell, Bid em up, Chop em down (after a little expiry, of course.)

CV said...

@I-Man

East Bound & Down!

No wait... Let's make that SOUTH bound & down...

CV said...

Meanwhile...

Maybe we can send Bernanke back to SOUTH CACO...

They might have a job for him here...

http://pics4.city-data.com/cpicc/cfiles4259.jpg

Nice "lava lamps" in the rooms at that fine establishment... CV will vouch!

Jennifer said...

Back above the upper hourly SPX downtrendline.

Matthew said...

@karen:

Are you taking any positions today?

I decided to punt on a long RIO at close yesterday. I might close it out. I want to watch for a little while longer today before making a position.

The GM thing is doing much worse than I expected. I was thinking a 37-38 range for a close. Maybe it will get there. I think they usually want a 10-20 percent jump for an IPO to generate volume from the algos :D

karen said...

Cooper has a freebie today: "I can’t help but wonder if today’s GM IPO frenzy doesn’t mark the epitome of a false signal like the one given in April 1930 that the road ahead is clear. Watch out for iconic tailfins as the opening tick will likely be the high tick -- at least for a while."

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jeff-cooper-gm-ipo-market-rally/11/18/2010/id/31204

Matthew said...

BTW, I thought this was amusing on Fast Money last night, Terranova was raving about how retail investors are weak hands that have high turnover and allocating GM shares to hedge funds was a much better idea because they are strong investors.

I expect that a lot of institutional investors are long-term holders, but hedge funds? Come on--turnover city there.

Also, we've already seen 25 percent of the entire float turned over this morning. /ME thinks the shares were allocated to some fast money.

McFearless said...

Ohio State BLOWS

I added some small short positions today via options on SPY.

Jennifer said...

Matthew -- I saw FM and thought the same thing. Anyone taking the Neely trade?

McFearless said...

me

karen said...

rio on yesterday's close was perfect.. the weekly chart says get the heck out!

might rebuy some drv, faz or dto.. otherwise, doing nothing.. JJC and gld pops are as unimpressive as the BM, I mean GM, IPO.

TBT still looking good! it was a buy on tap of 13ema yesterday..

CV said...

@McF

"Ohio State BLOWS"

---

x2

Problem is... CV taking Penn State & 18 against them last weekend cost CV a hundo (plus the vig)...

I-Man said...

I'll be playing some longs today if we get a decent pullback, have a feeling I wont be alone amongst the daytrading brethren.

karen said...

what is the neely trade? i got an email video yesterday but haven't watched it yet..

Matthew said...

I just dumped my RIO position (don't want to be greedy).

I'm looking to start some short positions in options, but I'm in a gambling mood this morning, so I know I need to stay away for a few hours or I'll end up shorting some high beta individual name that will pop tomorrow :D

CV said...

Cv is going to try not to be a "dick for the tick" today... :-)

Matthew said...

@CV:

You got robbed on the PSU game last weekend. I thought THE OSU was going to blow it too. They pulled a rabbit out of their asses

McFearless said...

his gold trade netted yesterday $6,900 per contract, just in the last week or so that's a total of 8,900 per contract between the S&P/Gold trade,

10 contracts each trade and you made a cool $89,000 over about 4 trading days.

His subscritpion fee is about $300 for six months. Not every trade goes like this but that's a pretty decent deal.

I'm also a one man marketing machine.

McFearless said...

Neely is re-short as of this morning stocks but I don't want to say exactly at what price or how since it's pay service.

Same exact count as he's had for several months now, nothing has changed, just saw a trade set up with the bounce this morning.

karen said...

spy 50% pt from the high(122.95) to this weeks low(117.59) is 120.27.. if i did my math correctly..

karen said...

bespokeinvest

Investors are bearish. No wait they're bullish. No, scratch that they're bearish...http://bit.ly/bWIm9L

Jennifer said...

McF -- do you trade futures? I don't, so I'm always recalculating into SPY.

karen said...

1200.04 is spx 50% line..

karen said...

ben, didn't you live here, too? http://yfrog.com/2rzjssj

CV said...

CV's friends dog, IZZY, has a unique perspective on the markets...

She's wondering if she doesn't see some kind of weird 3P&ADH (only in dog frequencies)...

new foto & chart in thread

McFearless said...

um, lets keep sentiment observations real simple today:

The GM IPO was some six times oversubscribed yes? Despite the very near term and intermediate term track record of this outfit it still manages to be the second largest IPO in US history, and I'm guessing the largest IPO ever of a bankrupt government run automobile maker/hedge fund.

Enough said......

You want to know why bulls dropped so much, because a bunch of maroons bought the breakout to new yearly highs as a sign of strength and momentum. I seem to recall lots of 1,300 is baked in talk about three weeks ago.

But hey, I just read another headline:

"DOW up after jobless claims"

McFearless said...

jennifer,

I have a small account with Mother Merrill for futes....I'm not allowed to have one anywhere else because of where I work and my company doesn't offer futes platform. Their platform sucks and the fees are high. I don't trade them very often, mostly options anymore or ETF's.

karen said...

sorry i missed last night's chat.. i decided to peruse my RE blogs bubbleinfo.com and laguna beach homes, to name 2.. situation is uglier than ever.

CV said...

@McF

Dow ought to be up on CAT anyway...

They're going to have to strip mine a lot of Planet Earth to get the raw materials to make batteries for VOLTS...

Not to mention all the coal needed to fire the elctricity plants, or the shale fracturing and ground water polluting to get the nat gas to run these

GREEN MACHINES

karen said...

you night owls will appreciate this.. andy, ben, cv..

http://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/200911/intelligence-the-evolution-night-owls

McFearless said...

karen,

no, spent some time in Boston but never lived there. That's a fun city.

Matthew said...

Futures, in my opinion, are a good for institutional investors to do all sorts of things.

For individual investors (who aren't in the mid-seven-figure+ wealth range), futures are a good way to hang yourself with leverage.

McFearless said...

sort of figured you spent the night on match.com

CV said...

@karen (10:49)

we figured you were on Match.com looking for someone who likes to take long walks on the beaches that feature antique shopping while eating dark chocolates, sipping wine...

karen said...

how $bkx ends today will be telling of whether we head back toward 1227..

Jennifer said...

Yeah -- I get all the leverage I need, and plenty I don't, with options. :-)

CV said...

@McF

lol (10:53) - I went u one better :-)

Jennifer said...

Too funny. Great minds... Karen -- seen your next door neighbor yet?

CV said...

@karen (10:52)

My IQ goes up about 30 points after I start drinking...

And remember... It's always HAPPY HOUR somewhere on the planet!

karen said...

LOL.. match.com.. i'm still analyzing whether it reeks of desperation, frustration, or practicality.. : )

No, too scary before bedtime! tho i've promised to show my girlfriend our neighbor's profile..

CV said...

"i'm still analyzing whether it reeks of desperation, frustration, or practicality..."

---

In a word... YES

McFearless said...

"My IQ goes up about 30 points after I start drinking..."

So, I'm going to the UD/Nova game on Saturday, I'm considering buying some 4 Loko to tailgate with.

not sure if I will yet, it's that or morning frou frou's and ladder golf.

Glenn Neely said...

I see your surge higher and laugh. Time to short - again. Don't mess with me.

Matthew said...

Oil has been a market anathema. It looks even worse if you compare it to the softs.

McFearless said...

Karen,

interesting article on the Night Owls. I take the Gordon Gekko quote to a 2000's extreme

Sleep is for wimps

CV said...

On a similar subject (sort of)...

I-340... the bridge that crosses the Potomac River between Virginia & MD... (that I take from the farm back to MD)...

well... now that MD has passed a "no texting" or handheld device law while driving... There is a big sign that says...

NO TEXTING... yada yada...

It doesn't say anything about SEXTING tho...

"But officer! I was 'sexting'"...

McFearless said...

Tell em whats up Glenn.

McFearless said...

leverage.....sort of like the one "one ring"

those who have it both love it and hate it and at times, it will consume you or make you feel....invisible.

to the Shire!

Matthew said...

"But officer! I was 'sexting' Brett Favre"

McFearless said...

I'm way in favor of the no texting in the car, I'm an angry driver.

karen said...

UUP at hod, now.. 22.80
i want it to retake 23.. that'll show 'em.

karen said...

tradefast

$GM has already traded almost half of float 230mm traded out of 480mm float

McFearless said...

this was one of the predictions from that 2003 Socionomic Paper from prechter:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_declining_marriage

CV said...

I'm still trying to imagine a CHEVY VOLT (loaded up with 4 passengers), going up and incline towards the end of it's battery charge...

All I can think of are the times on the golf course when you get a cart that they didn't have time to fully re-charge...

You're HATIN' IT on the 16th hole! Friggin leaning forward and jerking the thing up the hill with your body...

ROR

CV said...

I'm thinkin these guys would be able to manage that situation...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpwK3vFGJp0

Jennifer said...

I don't know about declining marriage, but I can attest to the declining birth rate in my neighborhood. My moms' group makes meals for new moms...we haven't had a new baby in almost a year and there are only two women who are preggers. Two to three years ago the phone would ring once or twice a month asking for a dinner.

karen said...

"The Wall Street Journal had a blog post yesterday afternoon highlighting the largest IPOs in history, apropos since General Motors (GM) is about to reenter the market.

Some of the dates they noted stuck out as being meaningful. As we can see from the chart below, some of the largest offerings appeared curiously close to market peaks. A special kudos goes to Blackstone (BX) in particular (number seven on the chart below) -- it's always curious why folks line up to buy when it's the smartest money in the room eager to sell to them."

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/gm-ipo-market-sentiment-general-motors/11/18/2010/id/31208

Jennifer said...

Karen -- Nouriel gets around, huh? South Africa, Frankfurt, Copenhagen, Cambridge...I'm thinking Cambridge sounds rather dull when included in that list.

McFearless said...

Jennifer,

Found it on-line for free, a chart for your review from RP re: Babies:

http://contraryinvesting.com/social-mood-trends/stock-prices-continue-to-drive-us-birth-rate-which-tanked-in-2009/

CV said...

@karen

That BX IPO was a riot...

"Smart Money" (the Chinese) were slopping that up at $30 bucks a share...

That's always good for a laugher when someone makes the case for a soverign wealth fund being some kind of WHALE as an excuse to get in to something...

I guess people just like the taste of snake oil...

Matthew said...

Marriage is a religious institution. The only non-religious reasons I can see for getting married are

1. Estate planning
2. To fit in certain communities

I also know a few guys who got married because their girlfriend would dump them if they didn't (great connubial foundation there--the extortion has already started).

karen said...

BloombergNow

Citigroup May Need to Refile Thousands of Foreclosure Documents http://ow.ly/3bVd1

McFearless said...

Being "real" I'd say I'm a pretty big fan of being married.

CV said...

If putting on a wedding ring gave me "invisible" powers (like Frodo)...

CV might consider it...

karen said...

ChartLines

Just for my own plan, I'm thinking this bounce will lead later to a midchannel test on Terry Laundry's ttheory.com chart appx 1160-ish...

I-Man said...

A quick look down History Lane at the original IPO of GM is ironically revealing...

I-Man said...

Happily married to I and I soul mate...

CV said...

By the way... I forgot to mention another version of NFL Thursday Night Football tonight...

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins by 1

game write-up upcoming...

I-Man said...

Might not be too happily married once she see's the price tag on the new steelhead rod I have I eye on...

CV said...

Last "steelhead" I had my hands on was a

Callaway 3-wood "steelhead"...

That always made me laugh as a marketing campaign... I mean, for 10 years straight, the golf geniuses decided to "market" graphite, and other space age materials that made the clubs seem lighter and lighter...

Then they come out with a STEELHEAD...

Might as well say... "OK... this year you'll be swinging a 16 pound sledge hammer - I hope your back is fit"...

Geniuses... I tell you!

karen said...

not OT!! LOL..

http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2010/11/16/131364910/the-loves-me-not-season?sc=tumblr&cc=npr

AmenRa said...

Is there an EMF field at 1200 or what? I'm looking to get short after a break of the weekly 3LB mid. Sheesh.

I-Man said...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

18 said...

AmenRa said...
Is there an EMF field at 1200 or what? I'm looking to get short after a break of the weekly 3LB mid. Sheesh

Stuck in the middle of both fields 1206-1188, ones pushing while the other is pulling. Will gravity win this time?

CV said...

@I-Man

Crickets...

(Day of GM -IPO & more importantly on the 50% retrace from this weeks low back to 1227)...

How bout dat! Chevy Volt tho!

CV can't wait 'til they [these new VOLTS] all show up at Talladega, Dover, Darlington, Bristol, Martinsville, Daytona... & of course... THE BRICKYARD...

I think I had Obama WRONG all along... I always imggined he fancied himself the "Commissioner of the NBA"...

Instead - I think he wants to head up NASCAR...

Yee haw!

AmenRa said...

18

1201.02 is the weekly 3LB mid I'm waiting for. Failure to get or close above that is a bullish FAIL.

AmenRa said...

Those that can, do. Those that can't bought GM at market.

CV said...

@Amen (1:14)

"can, do."

other famous "Can do's" in history...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl6MHgh1vFQ

I-Man said...

I shoulda gone fishing. This blows. Havent made a trade all day.

AmenRa said...

This "market" is ready to explode in either direction. I haven't seen a fight for position like this in a minute. Whoever blinks first gets crushed (for the day anyway).

McFearless said...

felt this coming by about 8 this morning I-man, lots of John's were looking for a "huge up day" but of course, if you weren't long at the close yesterday you missed it. We should only expect some sort of bounce after a string of 90% down days which culminate with a day where more stocks are making new 52 week lows than are making highs, we always bounce a bit after that happens, always did in 2008 even, when the trend was so clearly down.

CV said...

@Amen (1:47)

"This "market" is ready to explode in either direction."

---

"Go out there and TAKE IT"... (2:40)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qaEPivWtVE&feature=related

CV said...

@Amen

...at (6:50)

"I'm sure there are people here tonight who don't know the difference between a BLUE LINE and a CLOTHES LINE... It's irrelevant... It doesn't matter... I'm sure this game is being viewed with varying perspectives... But manifestly, it is a hockey game..."

I-Man said...

Even a 5 tick-er would be good enough for me to call it a day...

I-Man said...

I like to pull this one out when I need a little adrenaline boost...

Crank up the Metal, and put on your shades...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Gaiwvya6_k

CV said...

@I-Man

I know & respect your love for the ticks...

But I think, in a larger perspective, some should stop and consider this

BARRIER (if, that's what it is, if not... well, who cares)...

GM-IPO

Big market bounce! Government wins! Yada Yada...

Only... Hold on...

WHY, the sudden crickets?

Think about it THAT way for a minute...

I-Man said...

Oh I feel ya, I do the forecasting and the TA on the larger moves for fun, but I snatch ticks to eat.

Whereas I am totally bearish on the tape overall, as a daytrader, I aint gonna go short on a big trend up day... just aint good for business.

Rather grab a pullback into a lower high, or at worst, get clipped out for a small loss trying to trade with the trend.

On a day like today, the probability is much greater that you will catch a new upmove than catch a reversal.

72bat said...

matthew -
"Marriage is a religious institution."
first and foremost marriage was an issue of chattel property. and to an extent, still is.

k -
"Citigroup May Need to Refile Thousands of Foreclosure Documents"
no mention in the article of courts finding the previously submitted affadavits to have been frauds perpetrated upon the courts or whether original notes were filed with them or with the re-filings.

karen said...

you all saw, i suppose, that GM just made a new low on the day..

McFearless said...

man, I feel like doing some fishing now I.

Audioslave was an ok band while it lasted.

My Ugly Stik is calling out to me

I think it said POMO.

Just woke from coma said...

GM still exists!?

I-Man said...

Yeah, I thought that was soundgarden at first, but you're right.

Audioslave.

Chris Cornell really did have a sick voice.

McFearless said...

Well don't forget, Soundgarden is back!

Matt Cameron left PJ as far as I know to play drums for them again. They used to be a kick ass band.

I-Man said...

I'd like to hear Eddie Vedder and CC get together for some collabo again... maybe something acoustic even would be cool. Great vocal harmony between those two.

Leftback on the left coast said...

Afternoon, chaps. Or morning, since I am on the Left Coast.
Alas, no Karen sightings on my week-long sojourn.... :-(

LB has been paying very close attention to Ireland, munis and the Treasury market. It has been a remarkable week. Here are a few points I wanted to emphasize:

PIGS bond problems did not lead to buying of Treasuries.
POMOs have not stemmed the selling of Treasuries.
The cliff dive in several muni funds has not had much air play in MSM.
Mortgage rates are rising with the long end of the curve.

All this suggests that there isn't a panic in fixed income land yet. There also isn't going to be much demand for Treasuries until we get to the 4% 10y and the 4.75% 30y area again. 30y will rally before 10y.

LB is staying in junk for the yield and was adding during the sell-off. Also have some equity index funds but that is just a rental.

Ben22 said...

I'd be way into that as well, big fan of both bands.

McFearless said...

@LB,

Just jumped on a call with BlackRock with their muni managers/head of muni and fixed income department and VP of closed end funds.

will share any decent insight when it's done.

Anonymous said...

"NCC: New regulations will cost industry $1 billion over five years
Release Date: Wednesday, November 17, 2010
The National Chicken Council (NCC) has released a study claiming that proposed U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) regulations will cost the broiler chicken industry more than $1 billion over five years.

The study, conducted by FarmEcon LLC, raises issues of reduced efficiency, higher feed and housing costs and increased administrative expenses, as well as potential litigation costs, lost export sales and increased consumer prices. The changes, proposed by the USDA's Grain Inspection, Packers & Stockyards Administration (GIPSA), would result in changes in the relationship between chicken companies and independent chicken farmers. They would also require changes in the production and marketing systems for pigs and cattle.

While GIPSA maintains that the changes will have little economic impact, the study puts the cost burden at about $337 million per year by 2015. The total cost for the first five years is estimated at $1.03 billion, according to the study..."
http://www.wattagnet.com/ViewNewsLetter.aspx?id=19038&issueid=19060&elementid=9982&taxonomyid=2176&menuparentId=2171

would make, even, Cat Food more expensive..

AAIP

AmenRa said...

Bulls have tried and tried to outrun their predators and are realizing they can never escape.

AmenRa said...

This failure at 1200 is making me wonder if it's time to go all in short...

Anonymous said...

"CREW calls for investigation of former lawyer, current administrator
Release Date: Tuesday, November 16, 2010
The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) called for an investigation after J. Dudley Butler, administrator of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, allegedly made comments regarding putting regulations in place that make it easier to sue meat and poultry companies.

Prior to his current position, Butler worked at a legal practice that dealt with cases against those same companies. "When he took office, President [Barack] Obama issued an order closing the revolving door that allowed departing executive branch officials to cash in on their government service," said CREW Executive Director Melanie Sloan. "While the new policy was aimed at those who lobby after leaving office, the same rationale applies here." CREW has written a formal letter to the USDA's acting general counsel stating its concerns and requesting that Butler be barred from continuing work on the regulations..."
http://www.wattagnet.com/ViewNewsLetter.aspx?id=19023&issueid=19060&elementid=9982&taxonomyid=2176&menuparentId=2171

so much for the old Faerie Tale of: "Government is an Honest Broker."

We still believe that one, right?

AAIP

Anonymous said...

AR,

see:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CME_INX&t=&a=&w=&v=i

Today's 'Market' action has been one of those "Flag Patterns" --jammed up, on the Open, and flat-lining the rest of the Day..

not strong, right?

AAIP

Leftback on the left coast said...

Before anyone goes all-in short, bear in mind that the short week before Thanksgiving is usually a paradise for JOHNNY trades as many players take the week off. Usually the Monday after is a bit messy...

I do think tomorrow may be a down day as people close out positions.

Jennifer said...

We've made a lower high on the 5 min chart, waiting for the lower low. This may turn out to have been worth coming home for!

McFearless said...

"there are no natural buyers of 30 year tax exempts"

"retail is the predominant force in the market right now and they primarily operate in the 15 year space"

"hedge funds were big buyers of long muni paper in the early 2000's, they are today not able to employ leverage and are out of the market now"

these guys still seem very bullish the build america bonds, not much substance here and now it's on questions so I'm out.

I-Man said...

I just got long, haha...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

"LB is staying in junk for the yield..."


As Leftback would say," Don't touch my junk"......

McFearless said...

also, that call, it ultimately turned into a deflation/inflation conversation

it's still the top thought on the players minds, make no mistake.

I-Man said...

Obviously didnt work out so well...

Eh, happens.

:)

McFearless said...

"economic data has been slightly better lately, I think the market is starting to realize that we are NOT going to double dip and we are NOT going to have deflation, I think the other thing that applies is 'don't fight the fed' and I think they are going to succeed"

that's the top muni guy at BlackRock today

here's Glenn Neely on 9/22:

"This month kicks off what will be a slew
of positive news events for 2-4 months.
Why? The counter-trend rally that
began March 2009 is nearing its end.
So, to create an important top, the
market must now convince the majority
it is now safe to get back in."

I-Man said...

Ahh... Too early.

AmenRa said...

MSM: "Market Rallies on GM IPO"

Truth: "Market Closes Flat on IPO Hype - No One Believes the BS"

Anonymous said...

MackieFear,

re: Neely on 9/22

that sounds like the 'Straight Dope'..

AAIP

McFearless said...

Mark,

if one sat quiet for a minute and thought about both statements it's pretty clear which one is more logical right?

I-Man said...

Now THAT was my pullback!

Anonymous said...

Ben,

I'd go w/: ""This month kicks off what will be a slew
of positive news events for 2-4 months.
Why? The counter-trend rally that
began March 2009 is nearing its end.
So, to create an important top, the
market must now convince the majority
it is now safe to get back in."

AAIP

McFearless said...

I get the impression since I stayed on here that several retail FA's are/were heavy long closed end muni's.

McFearless said...

me too MEH.

McFearless said...

and for all of you that have gotten big balls from me about using prices to identify inflation, don't feel bad, every single FA on this call has done it so far....

I-Man said...

Gotta love it... wait all day for a pullback. Try 1: failed, 5 tick loss
Try 2: nailed, 10 tick gain

Net: 5 ticks

Bottomline: Shoulda gone fishing dammit.

karen said...

ben, this is for you: BloombergTV: Ellen Zentner, sr economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, says Inflation `Dangerously Low', QE2 to Stay http://ow.ly/3c6F5

McFearless said...

the guys at Blackrock tried to do some education for the advisors Karen, explaining there was really very little threat of large inflation but one guy in particular didn't want to give that up, brought up cotton, then oil, etc. they had to be reminded of other not so inflationary prices, like that little thing called housing.

cash and credit, that's where inflation discussions should be starting, not with the price of oil.

I-Man said...

(GIB)

I-Man said...

Sorry Ben, had to tag that onto the end of your post.

:)

I-Man said...

Now, I really am hitting the river.
Later traders,
-I

McFearless said...

"that's one standard dev. above 0"

thanks for the link karen, that LEI chart comparison was really interesting though I hardly saw it like she did in terms of how the Fed could use it.

McFearless said...

also, we all need to have a chat about this idea of wage deflation into next year, it's a really interesting forecast, something I've thought more about recently, wages are clearly a problem right now.

Neely said in that inteview yesterday that while he's not really confident we'll break the March 09 lows next year he did say that he thought the psychology could be worse than it was in late 08/early 09, Prechter's count is likely wrong but the concept of a supercycle top in social mood that needs to be washed away couples with GN's comment in that interview.

That's like a molotov cocktail if you couple a hard decline in stocks with wage deflation, call me one that would want to be prepared for some bad shit to go down in that scenario....some might call that crazy, of course.

CV said...

I'm going to only say this once...

GM - the suppposed "star" of the day

LOST you $$ today... (in silver)...

CV said...

I'll be taking the Dolphins tonight (for 3 units)...

Game write-up in AMEN RA's corner...

McFearless said...

CV,

I like Da Bears tonight, but if there was say a mini-Ditka on the team, then I'd say

Daaaa Bears

62-tree

CV said...

@McF (4:21)

Now way dude... Fins...

1985 Redux... Undefeated Bears go into Miami in week 13...

The Mark "Duper" Bowl...

Bears annhihilated...

McFearless said...

CV,

the o-line for the bears is playing so much better, cutler was sacked a ton the first many weeks, the last several I think he got dropped maybe 3-4 times. He's got a cannon if he gets time, so even though I think he sucks the big one, if he gets time tonight he'll pick them apart I think. Johnny Knox hasn't really had a break-out game and Matt Forte is due for some fireworks as well. Back to back weeks of 20 carries and nothing much to show for it....should be a good game.

CV said...

@McF

Da Bears have gotten by the past 2 games because of a favorable turnover margin...

- Brett Favre tossed 3 picks last week & fumbled once...
- The Bills coughed it up 3 times the week before...
- The Redskins coughed it up 3 times before that, but the Bears lost because Cutler tossed 4 picks to DeAngelo Hall and the Bears committed 6 turnovers...
- Vikings only got to Cutler twice (sacks), but before that they only had 9 sacks on the year...
- Dolphins have 23 sacks (expect more pressure)
- The Bills, Redskins, & Vikings, 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, almost made as many first downs as the Bears did in the past 3 games...

The Bears are playing ON THE ROAD (on a short week)... Very tough to do in the NFL (ask Ray Lewis & the Ravens last week going into ATLANTA - where the Falcons are 18-1 in the Georgia Dome with matt Ryan)...

Both QB's are hurt (Hanging Chads for Miami)... I'll argue that Tyler Thigpen is actually a better QB in this spot though...

He's mobile, and can scramble out of pressure from Julius Peppers... He'll make a few mistakes... But the Dolphins stay in this one...

my 2 cents

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