Morning Audibles

Ladies & Gents... I've decided to take a week off (starting today)...

What you can expect from this blog until the Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday is the following:

- I will do the WEEKEND FOOTBALL PICKS (which are published Saturday Morning at 8AM).
- I'm hoping Amen Ra & Andy T will do their usual posts (I'm making this decision at midnight, so I haven't had time to consult with either.
- I hope you can content yourself with filling out the comment sections of their threads. For continuity sake, since next week is a short week, perhaps I'll just put up a simple morning thread to start the day. (so nothing drastic may, in fact, change)

By the Monday following Thanksgiving, I'll have had time to "re-evaluate" my role in presenting ideas and opinions (ahab has convinced me that I need to do this - I've always respected his input, and he's been a valuable contributer across many blogs - so if he is questioning my integrity or honesty - I think it's time for me to do some soul searching)...

I'm going to leave you all with a little history here in the process...

I think MOST of my involvement in blogging began on this day, on this thread (at TBP)... (This was when Ritholtz comment sections would stretch into the hundreds... I remember one Friday getting it to near 400... Nowadays, Ritzy is lucky to even get to triple digits on a thread (unless he tosses up some kind of Pelosi versus Palin nonsense out there for shits & giggles)... Then you can be sure to have Venn Data and friends tell you about as much as how George Bush was resonsible for everything as CV talked about fitness & healthcare in this one...


Take time if you will, read it if you're interested... Many of you here actually posted comments to that thread (so it's kind of fun because it's a lot like looking at a yearbook)... I have to laugh (at myself) a little, in retrospect, and realizing how much effort it appears I put into dominating that conversation... It's not (or should I say "wasn't") my intention to do so... I simply have a vivid imagination... Add to that that I'm quite animated and enthused when engaged in a topical debate of interest... I'll take a wild guess and say that if anything I'd penned was "offensive", or "boring" in any way, the comment section would not have swelled the way it did...

That was a particularly interesting debate... Perhaps one of the best EVER at TPB... It 'seemed' to get off topic (and I apologized at least 2 times in the comment section to BR - tho I tried to also suggest that the subject was manifestly an offshoot of the original thread)... I tried to "keep it close" so to speak... Probably failed... But "tried"... CV, unless provoked, typically displays good manners...

Many commenters expressed (in that thread), how happy they were in discussing the topic (the "morphed" version - in fact)... My "tone", as always tends to hit hard, but I don't consider myself disrespectful... Arrogant yes, disrespectful no... I often use comical metaphors to emphasize a point (when I talk about "cheetos" & "fat slobs", I'm using terms that evoke emotion)... That's how one stirs up debate... I wasn't referring to anyone personally... Just using the terms, and applying them to a general condition as pertaining to the argument at hand...

I have been in fitness for almost 30 years, hold 2 advanced degrees, & have written 3 instructor manuals on the subject of professional fitness instruction... I have traveled to over 45 countries in the world (working - not visiting)... I speak 4 languages, and understand a thing or two about other cultures... I lived 12 years in Europe, and another 12 years in Southern California... I don't walk into bars and drop these things as "lines" to pick up girls... I only bring it up on those (or these) rare instances where I'm forced to define the fact that I actually might know what I'm talking about on a certain subject... When I do that, it might NOT be clear to the person I'm debating that I'm framing that foundation NOT as a dismissal of THEIR ideas, but simply as a justification for my own ideas (or at least my right to have an idea)... It's my way of saying... "I respect your opinion, but I want to emphasize that what I'M expressing is not something I'm just making it up off the top of my head... THAT'S A VERY DIFFICULT THING TO DO IN BLOGGING (because you're not looking into someones eyes)... Furthermore, they don't know you from Jack (until they take the time)... I suppose my motto would be "bring your best game if you want to debate me" (not because I'm smart, but because I'm animated & relentless)... Many times, with me, it's a war of attrition... I'm aware of that... I'm not particularly PROUD of that (because I lose a lot of potential friends along the way)... But I also have a deep seeded notion that the people who don't have the stamina to fight to the death, AREN'T the ones I can really count on in the end (in blogging, or frankly, IN LIFE)...

It's sad to lose friends... But I feel you have to constantly strive for the deepest definition of what you call "friend"... It's very well defined in the Marine Corps... Plattoon, Corps, Country God... Otherwise, the security blanket that you cloak yourself in, in the end, isn't what you'd deluded yourself into believing...

How ironic, that I hear that topic being bantered about EVERY DAY in the blogosphere (when people discuss their soul relationships with THEIR OWN COUNTRY & IT'S LEADERS)... I hear so many people questioning that TRUST that they thought they had all these years...

Anyway... Enough about my "origins" of blogging... But I needed to identify that as a starting point for many things that have happened since, and of course, where that leaves me today...

That thread (from Ritholtz - the one linked above), was basically the thing that got me kicked off that site... I went in and out of posting for a month or two later (sometimes having to do so on NEW handles)... But I can't refrain from being a lightning rod... I've mostly only used my real name as a handle on various blogs... I don't delibritely HIDE behind my internet handle... I realize that certain people (for professional reasons) have the need to do so... But I don't... I feel it's a way of "keeping me honest"... IOW - If I were flat out just being offensive to people on purpose, I wouldn't want them to know where it was coming from, right? They may decide to dig up all kinds of information about me, and keep little notebooks... Hell - they may hire thugs to appear at my very doorstep some day... No - I don't hide... Ritholtz doesn't hide either... That's him... That's Barry (like it or not)... Keeping YOURSELF honest makes you accountable for your statements... So if I "cross the line" (which is impossible to avoid on occasion), I'm the first to stand up and admit it... It's the quid pro quo (self imposed)...

I'll leave it up to all of you to decide if I was a "disrespectful" lightning rod (you'd have to read the entire comment section - maybe a couple of times - to put yourself into the "mood" of the moment)... Frankly - I don't expect that anyone has the time to do that... but IF YOU DO... it may explain a lot of things... IF YOU DON'T (spend time to peruse the comment section)... Then it proves that you're probably more willing to simply "have opinions" about CV and drop one liners amongst your friends, than you are to really give something the benefit of analysis... Don't ever be guilty of letting reality ever cloud your opinion on things...

That was also the introduction of THOR into the blogosphere (at least the Ritholtz one)... I suppose it starts out OK, but by the end he's calling me an angry white male whose peer group is the UNI-BOMBER...

I'd never met, or conversed with this person before in my life... I'm guessing that he simply decided that he didn't like who I was or was representing...

Fast forward... Andy T started a blog later that summer, and many of us morphed over... Andy ended his project at the end of the year, and bergsten started a blog... Many here have already been through the explanation of that transition, but the end result was that the blogs split apart at that time...

Let me explain something right now... This has to do with "concept"... I DID NOT START THE BLOG (in January) because I wanted a little sewing circle, or chat room... Instead, I considered it a professional PRODUCT... A commodity, a widget...

I'm not monetizing this blog right now (but I'd consider those aspects under a particular set of circumstances)... Bergsten and I have discussed "monetization" at various points in the past... Don't OVERRATE that admission for it speaks to nothing other than:

- "Hey - I'm serious about presenting good work to the best of my ability"
- "I'm devoting a lot of personal time and effort into this" (not commenting - THREADING is something more)... Commentators can come and go and hardly have to devote anything at all - unless they desire to stick around and become a part of the makeup of the effort... Those that do - are rewarded... You can usually tell the difference by whether the blog author ENGAGES the contributor on a regular basis - or simply tosses a line out (because they basically see them as only someone who is adding numbers or flags to the comment count)...
- I view this [blog] as a "product" (not as a chatroom)

When viewed from that perspective (when someone has a "product on the market" - whether the product is an automobile company, a smart phone, a TV network, or a blog), naturally you're going to go to great lengths to defend it (if it's your sweat & blood)... You're even going to go beyond... You're literally out to DESTROY your competition...

If you're Steve Jobs, you want nothing more than everyone with an iPhone, PAD, whatever... If you're GM, you want everyone in Volts, Camaros, & Trucks... If you're MSNBC, you want FOX off the air... Get it? If you DON'T want that those things, then you're not much of an entrepeneur...

Ironically... Usually... You relish competition... It's the worlds way of telling you "Bring it, son, or you're gonna get buried"... It keeps you in the game when your competitors "one up" you on something... You take a moment to be friendly, acknowledge it... Then go back to the chalkboard and go back on the attack...

I remember quite vividly (on bergsten's blog)... When Thor posted his first foto essay (as a thread)... CV was the first one to make a complimentary comment that day about how it "looked" good and I thought he was on the right track... Then I went back to my own space, back into assassination mode, and conjured up ways to take my own presentations to the next level... Some are hits [my presentations], some are misses... But the EFFORT is always genuine (which is all CV has ever been since the TBP thread - and frankly - in my private life)...

What's important for me to express in this moment is CONCEPT... If you all understand that I'm trying to polish my skills at presenting a VERIFIABLE PRODUCT here (something that may, in the future, have value on the open market)... Then you can embrace the need to be "competitive" (which can read as "nasty" sometimes if you're clueless to the game)...

So to bring the same argument closer to the present... Most of you know that bergsten shut down the blog started after Andy's, and others have formed their own group... As "chief" contributer to this blog (although Amen Ra & Andy, I consider equal partners - and FRANKLY, I might have ceased operations already had it not been for them)... Anyway... let's call me "strategic chief" (or "guidance chief")... I felt it was my objective to DEFINE to many of you out there what the DIFFERENCE (in product) you're getting with this blog versus others...

Now I smile :-) Why?

Because as "publisher"... I CANNOT TELL YOU HOW TO THINK... As "entrepeneur" I have to try different methods and watch and see how the offerings (and behavior) are responded to... I'll give you an example... Remember those AAPL ads that had that hippy looking kid (who was Apple), and the nerdy fat dude in the business (who was supposed to represent Microsoft)?...

Frankly, that was kind of MEAN... But that's business... If you were an Apple die hard, you probably LOVED the ads... If you hated Apple, you probably HATED the ads... The rest got divided up in the process... Nevertheless, it was CLEVER AS HELL because that's exactly what you want as an entrepeneur... A better identification of who your audience is, and who isn't... You're not going to win them all... Ever!

Now - the other blog... It's quite possible that they NEVER CONSIDERED THEMSELVES in a war of this sort... That's fine... But I'm also thinking that the Taliban wonders why the hell the Soviets & Americans have been traipsing all over their land for the past 30+ years as well... Sometimes you're in a war and you don't even know it...

Anyway... I'm actually at the point, right now... that I'm about willing to lay down my arms and recall the troops home... Why? Because yesterday I got into a thread discussion with several of the protagonists (at the other blog)... I was finally "appeased" by some of the admissions... To paraphrase:

"Fuck off" (of several weeks ago)... was diluted down to "Please go away"... I'm really not being facetious when I say that... Why? Because going back to the first day a person ever conversed with me & called me the UNIBOMBER...to that same person ridiculing me to no end for starting my own blog...to that same person spending his own personal time digging up fotos from me in 1986 to make funny jokes about my hair & exercise attire...to that same person telling me to fuck off... to that same person always acting as in a pack of wolves trying to discredit one individual (me- fighting for a TRUTHFUL representation of my honor & intentions)... Well, that was the first time this SOMEONE actually sounded somewhat polite & apologetical... While I never got the apology I'd sought since June 2009... I figured that was about as good as it was going to get...

Basically, I thought... "I'll take it"...

As I always do... I made an attempt to express that ("I'll take it")... But as has happened many times in the past, I was also censored in doing that... I asked... AS A GESTURE... that my comment NOT be removed (despite the fact that this is a blog that swears up and down that comments are never censored or deleted)...

Here was the first effort... (6:27)

Gone... VANISHED

Then came the final effort (some hours later, as I was involved watching football)... (10:51)


(I apologize for not having the 2nd piece to that - I'd copied and pasted it - but somehow neglected to save... Nevertheless my main expression was contained therein)...

I made one simple plea... Please do not delete this comment, and I will honor my word not to make my presence felt in your new domain...

There were two particular links that I made in that post [which was deleted by the blog hosts]...

- One was this link to the (6:27), which you needn't click on now because at this point, it's just above... I wasn't going to make that OBVIOUS, but alas my hand was eventually forced...

- The 2nd is an apology to DL... It PAINED me to see a blog comment launched at me by someone who evidently didn't realize that I'd made a FULL APOLOGY and RETRACTMENT of the comments I'd made to DL... You see, CV is engaged in a 24/7 evaluation of his own efforts & misgivings... I'm usually the FIRST to admit I'm wrong, or am acting irrationally... I made a full apology to DL, but unfortunately, that seems to have been lost... It shouldn't be... Because it's still there in the public domain if anyone would expend the effort to find it... karen (& others) were quite happy that I'd expressed that apology at that moment and made comments about it... Others don't seem as willing...

Actually... I dug it up anyway... Here's the link to my apology to DL that Thor & denise saw fit for you not to see (as expressed in that post)... I wrote it first thing the very next morning)...


- Also, there is the start of an explanation to Mutt (before the screen shot is clipped)... I regret now that I've lost the rest of that post... I neglected to save it in TEXT before hitting send... I suppose I was relying on that comment NOT being DELETED by the authors of the blog (because it was - in fact - somewhat of a DEAL)...

After the DEAL... This is all I saw...



You must understand that until that point... I'd NOT CONSIDERED their "domain" THEIR DOMAIN... If you read my words above, you'd know that that would be akin to GM coming out today and saying "OK we have a company, and IPO, we sell cars... So now NOBODY IN THE WORLD is allowed to make any cars anymore, or drive them on the information superhighways"... All activity must stop... You're not allowed to challenge us with better models... All other TV networks, if you don't agree with Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow, or Keith Olberman, you must go off the air... You must convert all your phones to iPhones... You have to be bullish on stocks...

Now that that has been defined, (and admitted to) last night (both in terms of pleas & censure)... I feel much better... See? Before I was thinking that I was challenging a line of thinking with dissenting opinions... Now I know that dissenting opinions are not welcome there... & that RE-DEFINES my belief, and guides it in a different direction...

I know now that they want a sewing circle... I'd thought I was competing against a blog (and instead they just want to be FACEBOOK)...

For posterity... I assure everyone I'm not "making this up" (nor ever was)... Above are the screenshots of my deleted posts (apparently - your eyes are much too delicate to know the real truth... None of you are capable of understanding & deciding for yourselves, so they've been secreted away from you for your own good)...

Sadly - I could never get anyone to simply let those comments be published, and have everyone go home happy... Seems they didn't want it bad enough...

Ironically though... In a twist of fate, it appears that they might have WON after all... Because this experience (of being DELETED), has deleted my enthusiasm (for the moment), of bringing facts & truth to the forefront...

I need a break...

Amen & Andy... Can you both spell CV for a few plays while he catches his breath?

Damn I hate lies!

91 comments:

Anonymous said...

CV,

unless I'm, really, missing something, it isn't that important.

never a bad idea to take some time off to re-evaluate..

at the EOD, you might do well by asking: "What do they matter?"

and, "Why should you care?"

AAIP

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Too much angst.

More speculation about Karen's top.

And how do the Royal men find such babes?

And how can Dominos sell their pizza for six bucks and Pizza Hut still charges twelve?

Who knows why, after you spend an hour trying save an ear, and put on a beautiful skin graft over the perichondrial coverings of the upper half of the ear that could have been just removed, why does that patient see a little tag of skin and decide to cut it off with his pocket knife, and instead cuts the entire damn graft off leaving the wound open for five days?

WEEKEND!

AmenRa said...

Bruce

Ouch!

ben22 said...

well, I suppose while we are announcing vacations, I won't be around much after Tuesday of next week, headed home for the holiday, Mom's internet is a little stone age so probably won't be around much next week.

As for this post, what Mark said at 8.

ben22 said...

oh, and just want to thank the Fins for that fine offensive display last night, seeing as how my FF matchup is against CN starting the Bears D.

C'mon Man!

2small2bail said...

what Mark said ... x3

AmenRa said...

Odd that futures are down on opex Friday with a short week next week. But gold and oil are down. AUDJPY getting killed, EURJPY holding on to gains (for now). Dollar flat to slightly down, EURUSD up. Looks like a good day to sit back and watch the fireworks.

spoonman said...

Enjoy the downtime CV. I appreciate you hosting.

karen said...

What in the h*ll have I missed now? Great anecdotes, Bruce.. Can we JUST GET BACK TO MY TOP PLEASE?!

karen said...

BloombergNow - Gold May Drop in New York After China Orders Banks to Hold More Reserves http://ow.ly/3ctsr

Anonymous said...

Headline at yahoo finance - "Market's confidence in Fed has rarely been higher" - gee, that doesn't at all sound like a recipe for disaster - unless you're waiting to pick up the pieces of the latest shattered bubble

spoonman said...

I would love to see your top, Karen, but I don't know if we'll get there on this go round.

spoonman said...

By which I mean, I would love to see the market at 1105...

karen said...

spoon, i knew what you meant! lol.. anyone wanting GM at the pre IPO price? How about a few pts lower? Just wait and you, too, can own more than the average taxpayer's share!

spoonman said...

Didn't want you to miss LB too much...

karen said...

BloombergNow

Real Bonds Post Biggest Loss Since May on Inflation Concern: Brazil Credit http://ow.ly/3ctGC

spoonman said...

We may just wiggle around here all day. Boring. I have stops set and work to do. See you guys later.

call me ahab said...

"I know now that they want a sewing circle"

bingo

I find it hard to believe that you hadn't figured that out until now-

it's not the TBP-

I'm not a reader or commenter there (anonymoustraders)- but- found myself perusing the thread last night-

and the way I saw it- you're not welcome- and certainly not me either, or Andy or Ben-

but so what?

who cares?


Keep up with the blog here though- I learn a lot from everyone here-

it's like a free education

karen said...

On Friday 19th November 2010, @mrtopstep said:

HL Camp [08:29:35 AM]: When November Expiration Friday gaps down, the spoos close negative 75% of the time.

SPZ quiet open under 1193 area next obj 1188 area and res. 1199 ystrdy high 1205.50 weeks high 90ish locals

how about a stat on the market on Fridays before Thanksgiving?

[08:49:42 AM]: check your 10 handle rule from globex

HL Camp[08:52:13 AM]: The best trade on the Friday before Thanksiving is to be short with 59.26 odds of success. The spoos close positive however 51.85% of the time. The INDU closes positive 62.96% of the time.
HL Camp[08:53:17 AM]: However, if that Friday before Thanksgiving gaps down, the best trade is to be short and with 58.33% odds, but the spoos close negative 83.33% of the time. The INDU closes negative 58.33% of the time.

mcHAPPY said...

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/40271476

This really bothers me. Please disregard the populist lingo here but...

The banks (private) reap all rewards, send the citizens the bill for the losses, reap any rewards going forward, give themselves bonuses on the fact they didn't lose any money because the citizens picked up the bill, and citizens around the world are fine with this?

Sounds to me a global civil war is in order. This is ridiculous. The worst part for me is it is only a matter of time before it happens in Canada as well. The sound you're hearing from the north is the Canadian debt bubble reaching its limits.

karen said...

Currency Wars = Texas Hold 'Em

Ben, bets 600B, China raises (bank reserve ratio requirement : )

karen said...

i'm thinking of shorting the FXE again view EUO.. seems like a sure bet for some small change..

call me ahab said...

now this is funny-

Roubini believes that further attempts at intervention have only increased the magnitude of the problems with sovereign debt. He says, "Now you have a bunch of super sovereigns- the IMF, the EU, the eurozone-bailing out these sovereigns . . .

. . .Essentially, the super-sovereigns underwrite sovereign debt-increasing the scale and concentrating the problems . . .

He says wryly [Roubini]: "There's not going to be anyone coming from Mars or the moon to bail out the IMF or the Eurozone."


no kidding

McHappy-

and citizens around the world are fine with this?

everyone's venting their rage on the internet- instead of burning down K street and the Capitol

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-faber-china-and-us-are-collision-course-sees-10-real-inflation-china

faber telling it like it really is..

call me ahab said...

gotta roll out-

I am quite glad that I stuck w/ Ricky Williams and the Miami kicker-

between the two of them- grand total 1.3 points (should have listened to my son- the uber Bear fan)-

all have a good day

Always welcome said...

Ahab - As far as I am concerned, you, Ben, Andy. Mark Hoffer (Who I personally apologize to) and Cvienne are welcome.

To me it is not an us vs. them thing. They are two separate blogs, who's only real connection is how they came into existence.

Both blogs have great, smart and capable people and when you say it is like getting a free education - You are 100% correct. I have learned a lot from both groups and hope to continue to.

Because of my up bringing I feel comfortable in many types of social setting, where others do not. What that means is not everyone is going to feel comfortable in different settings. To me it is no biggie, maybe I will see them on down the road, maybe I wont.

With that being said, MEH, I believe you were treated unfairly the other day and would like to apologize to you for not saying something in your defense.

Cvienne - I have stated my opinion of you on several occasions, and it has always been favorable. I believe you have offered a lot and have a lot more to give. I truly appreciate the effort you have put in.

I hope that after a week away, you come back full of piss and vinegar and continue your work, you have people who have found solace at your blog.

Most the people here are a beer and fooseball type crowd, Thors blog is not. It is not about competing because just as not everyone feels comfortable drinking beer and talking fooseball, not everyone is going to feel comfortable drinking wine.

Anyway - Ahab, Thanks.

MEH - My appologies

Cvienne - Have a great Thanksgiving and I hope you come back with re-newed energy.

To everyone else thanks for taking the time to read this and whether it is here, there or someplace in between, I hope to see ya all down the road.

And happy trading.

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

YahooFinance - Meredith Whitney Is Starting Her Own Credit Ratings Agency http://yhoo.it/dtdSfj

karen said...

After the speech, Bernanke spoke during a panel discussion and responded to audience questions, saying that the use of securities purchases for monetary policy affects asset prices “quite significantly.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Nov. 5 he was “dumbfounded” at the Fed’s actions, which he said won’t aid growth and will instead contribute to imbalances by driving down the currency. U.S. monetary policy is creating “grave distortions” and causing “collateral effects” on faster- growing economies such as Brazil, Meirelles said in October.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6nPzNUPdGG0

Anonymous said...

MM,

I appreciate the thought, though, really, don't worry about it.

I haven't the least issue with you, nor, really, anyone else.

AAIP

karen said...

spy under 119.53 is back in the downtrend channel..

Anonymous said...

By CHI-CHI ZHANG
Associated Press

(AP:BEIJING) Pollution in Beijing was so bad Friday the U.S. Embassy, which has been independently monitoring air quality, ran out of conventional adjectives to describe it, at one point saying it was "crazy bad."

The embassy later deleted the phrase, saying it was an "incorrect" description and it would revise the language to use when the air quality index goes above 500, its highest point and a level considered hazardous for all people by U.S. standards.

The hazardous haze has forced schools to stop outdoor exercises, and health experts asked residents, especially those with respiratory problems, the elderly and children, to stay indoors..."
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=689747498470710

"The embassy later deleted the phrase,..."

Wow, don't go commenting on the, bleeding, obvious..

That's pathetic, no?

AAIP

karen said...

Mark, frightening! that's our air/atmosphere!

Ben, I know you are somewhere chanting, "POMO! POMO! POMO!"

karen said...

enjoyed this article on NY accents:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/nyregion/21accent.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all

Now I am changing, "OVA! OVA! OVA!"

karen said...

oops, probably should have spelled that OVAH.. laughing..

72bat said...

looking at nymex crude on a 10-minute dukoscopy screen and see five flash crashes during the wee morning hours. is this just trash or was there some kind crazy during the night?

karen said...

Ben.. I would LOVE to get your comments on this MacroMan post:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2010/11/capex-capisch.html

karen said...

bat, that is bizarre.. there are some odd ticks here:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=m5

the set up still seems to be to break the low on 17 Nov..

Anonymous said...

72bat,

LSS: 'Flash Crashes' happen all the time, it's, just, a matter of degree..

this phrase
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Fingers+of+Instability

captures, well, what's afoot..

differently, there is little 'depth'/'real Liquidity' in these 'Markets'..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

By SHAWN POGATCHNIK
Associated Press

(AP:DUBLIN) Allied Irish Banks announced Friday it has lost a staggering euro13 billion ($18 billion), or 17 percent, of its total deposit base since June in the latest evidence of cash flight from Ireland's debt-crippled banking sector.

Earlier this month two other banks, Bank of Ireland and Irish Life & Permament, reported suffering losses of more than 10 percent of deposits in recent months.

The cash flight from Irish banks has accelerated since September, when the government raised its estimated bill for bailing out five banks to at least euro45 billion ($62 billion), a figure that many analysts said was still too low.

The news comes as a team of international finance officials works with the Dublin government on the outlines of a rescue loan aimed at easing the impact of the banks' losses on the government's stressed finances. Growing fears of a cash run on Ireland's banks triggered this week's emergency mission by European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund experts to Dublin...."
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897474659900

AAIP

karen said...

some interesting graphs:

http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/11/19/plenty-of-good-news-what-could-go-wrong/

Anonymous said...

karen

I really appreciate all the data links. It's a very useful and ecclectic panorama that you provide since I've been coming here.

72bat said...

cv -
you've got nothing you have to prove in the blogosphere and an appreciative following here. your posts and the threads they generate are the proof-in-the-pudding.
tell the truth, all the romper room stuff over at the other place(s) was/is tiresome and i'd just as soon no space at all be wasted with references to it here. i say, just let it go, take a well-deserved break, then concentrate on the value-added here.
enjoy the bird-day, everyone. i'll be in louisville with all siblings, nephews and nieces in-gathered with my mom.

karen said...

optionmonster

Brian Talking Expiration of $SPX on FuturesMonster TV http://ping.fm/AvGJ8

Anonymous said...

Cashed in the last of the puts this morning on RF and others.. ChaChing!!

Let these crap banks run up some and do it again, and again, and...

AmenRa said...

I need more coffee. Anything to keep me awake during this slow opex Friday.

karen said...

I was just looking at XLF and $bkx.. the latter possibly turning its trend chart down today.. XLF next week? getting close anyway..

AmenRa said...

Karen

So Brian is saying watch out for the squeeze to 1200?

karen said...

AR, shoot.. i didn't watch it.. did you see the MacroMan post today?

"As we've seen over the past few months, the return of multi-billion Dollar M&A and share-buybacks has ramped up significantly. We expect organic growth through investment to follow...

...and with the S&P500 trading at just 12.4x 2011's earnings, and looking nearly as cheap as it has done since Spring-2009 (see chart below, trailing earnings yield minus 10yr real yields - although, admittedly, this is as much a result of real bond yields being so low as anything) it seems to us that both the valuation and newsflow has turned for the better.


Finally, given the post-QE2 positioning washout and falls in bullish sentiment it appears that positioning is not an obstacle. If yesterday's renewed optimism can hold, then there appears little to stop a melt-up into year-end."

AmenRa said...

Karen

BKX back below its weekly 3LB mid (46.44) so it's getting weak.

XLF has held its weekly 3LB mid (14.55) so far.

72bat said...

mark -
thanks for that reminder. particularly value the john mauldin letter
Fingers of Instability
Ubiquity, Complexity Theory, and Sandpiles
Stability Leads to Instability
A Stable Disequilibrium
3 Billion and Counting

AmenRa said...

Karen

I read the post. But I always view share buybacks as no organic growth. Also its used for recouping the stock price from bonuses issued using stock options. I could probably say the same thing about M&A (no growth so buy someone).

AmenRa said...

NYSE TICKS has been making higher daily lows all week. Sheesh.

Anonymous said...

Karen...

XLF, my indicator, not on this chart gave a sell signal 3 days ago but not a strong one. I like to pick on indivisual stocks, just my style.

karen said...

watched it.. if crude were up today.. or UUP more down, i might be nervous about revisiting 1200.. and then there are the week financials.. aussie dollar on thin ice, FXE treading water : )

Anonymous said...

*individual

you know what I meant :) alot of support now and around 14.47 on XLF... just saying

karen said...

this is really interesting: Europe's Debt Woes May Spur Search for Defense Savings

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Olivia Sterns reports on the impact Europe's debt crisis is having on defense budgets among member nations in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

http://www.youtube.com/user/Bloomberg#p/u/0/aY0PG5iUQlo

I-Man said...

I'm about to quit all blogs.

karen said...

anon... hope you can see this XLF chart.. looks very bearish to me:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&id=p18425475819&def=N&listNum=1

AmenRa said...

Karen

That sounds similar to what I've been hearing on NATO. Budget crisis in the member countries may lead to withdrawing troops from NATO led engagements. This also weakens the need for NATO which is why the US keeps extending the date for leaving. NATO was originally for dealing with Russia and communism. It's still a thorn in the side for Russia.

AmenRa said...

The XLF tested the SMA(55) and is trying to get back above the SMA(21). The move down was to close that gap. Daily 3LB reversal is down at 14.23 so it has a way to go.

AmenRa said...

Ruh roh...here comes the "hit the target" by lunch and go home move in the market.

Anonymous said...

120.50 SPY might be a resistance.

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-pimcos-purchase-another-30-billion-mbs-most-it-margin-may-be-very-bad-news-bank-america-

ben22 said...

just got back in, Karen, I was driving up through philly with my car, I put a big POMO flag on it.....not many people got it

j/k btw

I'm officially changing my last name to POMO this week

Benny POMO

a whole new meaning to the letters BP.

AmenRa said...

Each move closer to 1200 makes it that much harder to break. MM's must be set to lose quite a bit if it hits before the close.

karen said...

i've been pre-occupied, LOL.. did my own internet sleuthing on a very promising match.com candidate. (i will not enter a profile.. honestly, i'm not desperate, that frustrated, or in need of expediency!) the only thing he seems to have exaggerated is the "athletic and toned" body type.. unless he lost 30 lbs in the last year... i suppose i could help him with that, hahaha.

mcHAPPY said...

Funny I came across this after my comment regarding Canada earlier:

http://finance.sympatico.ca/home/housing_bubble_a_danger_expert/032ec59d

I'll file that under the "No Shit!" file. It is hilarious how many Canadians think it could never happen here and how much better our financial system is. They are ridiculously unaware that everything Canada is doing right now is on the exact same route the US went - inflate housing prices and max out equity in HELOC's but we also have maxed out CC's and maxed out LOC's.

I get 4-5 phones calls a week regarding debt services/consolidation. Ads run all over the radio. It is like a car crash about to happen and you're frozen watching.

karen said...

canada = australia !!

ben22 said...

Karen,

re: MM article

Sorry, couldn't get past:

"Back in the 1990s, Japanese Households and Corporates both had to repair their balance sheets, but in the US today, Corporate balance sheets have never been in such great shape."

Funny how they open up with a little rant about "misreporting" then that's in there a few para's below....it's just not true, not to mention a comparison of US household balance sheets vs. those of Japan at the credit peaks and ours are far worse, but they are out peddling the idea that we need only look at one side of the corporate balance sheet ledger and that we can just ignore the problems on the household balance sheet.

Also a little hard to get into the comparisons to the 90's, not to mention.

I don't really read that blog much, what are the trading calls like?

mcHAPPY said...

*I should note the the debt phone calls are unsolicited as the only debt I carry is a mortgage.

Oh yeah, Ben, I sold one of the houses a few months back for a tidy profit - albeit not as much as I had hoped. The next one goes on sale January 2nd.

Anonymous said...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

ben22 said...

Karen,

also, stuff like this:

"and with the S&P500 trading at just 12.4x 2011's earnings, and looking nearly as cheap as it has done since Spring-2009"


seriously, laugh my ass off, such a definitive statement based on analyst guestimates, as if they know what earnings will in 2011 and therefore know how to apply the p/e ratio to today's markets....pffft.

I could have claimed in March 2009

"in historical bear markets p/e's tend to decline to the 6-7 range so by that measure the S&P should be trading at 500 at minimum....

these are not forecasts in any way shape or form, they are predictions of the past, now quick, go get in your Porsche and fly down the Pacific Coast but you are only allowed to look in the rearview (at least you won't back into anything!)

ben22 said...

Congrats McHappy, that's awesome (on the sale of the house)

I guess I should say nice trade as well.

karen said...

ben, not sure which poster was responsible for the Team Macro Man piece today but my jaw dropped.. a lot of the cash corps have was raised via debt offering because they could.. now what? buy some earnings or save for rainy day.. dead money. next, "QE2 is keeping real rates very low." Ha! Hardly a statement of fact at present. The fed as master of the universe? this remains to be seen..

i don't follow their individual calls, so i can't answer to that.

karen said...

ben, at 3:42.. i further agree with you..

karen said...

euo at low of day.. 19.47.. i wanted 19.38 actually..

karen said...

question of the day: who gets to keep it??

http://www.businessinsider.com/eva-longoria-tony-parker-home-pictures-2010-11

Anonymous said...

"with the S&P500 trading at just 12.4x"

http://lib.store.yahoo.net/lib/rarecoins/650-Silver-Prices.gif

ben22 said...

last I checked HH had the number one macro hedge fund so far for the year, his views are a 180 of those presented there, HH spends his time reading books during the day, understanding behaivor, etc, rather than watching the market, others spend their time doing fundamental analysis based on statistics primarily compiled by the government:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whL9DvjYkR8

karen said...

loved that youtube ben! thanks.. : )

AmenRa said...

Trying to avoid a down week with the last second push.

ben22 said...

@M Mutt,

Thanks for welcoming me over at the other blog, I'll probably continue to primarily post here, I don't really post on any other blogs anymore, maybe something small here or there. I posted already at the other site recently specifically to ask Thor a question about the iPhone, it was no big deal, I might stop by from time to time, I think this person Dastro has been putting up some pretty neat posts the last few months, he's got an interesting perspective on things.

Truth is I enjoy this site very much, don't really fit in over there so much with my "crazy" market views on the way things "work", which is ok, to each their own. Maybe most people here don't agree with me either but my opinion is they tend to be more tolerant to my views and perhaps understand a bit better why it is that I'm even here daily.

Maybe it's as simple as the fact that nobody here rags on the elliott wave theory as if it's some garbage voodoo.

Anyway, thanks again.

AmenRa said...

Without looking I can bet the MSM is all "happy happy joy joy" that the week closed higher. {snark}

karen said...

an annoying close! just under 1200.. was that an op-ex thing or what?!

ben22 said...

think that's right around max pain last I looked.

that's the markets own special way of saying; have a nice weekend, traders.

AmenRa said...

Ben

Market to traders: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_cM8kNu_rcrs/S1TvoFpzqnI/AAAAAAAAAUA/QyQpTQfUpug/s400/FlamingMiddle-Finger-1.jpg

Completely Understand said...

Ben - I completely understand your point of view.

Not everybody is comfortable in every setting, what is crazy one place is not so much in another.

I like getting many different points of view and I think things like EW are a valuable resources espesially for experienced people like you and Andy, but to use consitantly for myself, not so much.

But I enjoy getting your point of view and ESPECIALLY WHY (The explinations you guys put out are more valuable to me then the charts themselves) you guys think things may go one way or another.

To me it has always been about learning, I know Thor feels the same way, he just sees things from a different angle then you. However he feels he has been called out un-necissarily on more then one occation (And from where I sit, I I stand beside him 100% on that) To him it has has never been a compition.

You guys can be a little rough and tumble over here (And more power to ya) but that's not for everyone.

You guys have always been welcoming to me and hope that if you choose to visit our blog you guys are also treated with respect.

But trust me on this it has NEVER EVER been an us vs. them thing and I regrete that it was ever precieved as such. It has just been about finding a place where thoughts and ideas can be discussed.

Just like you feel more comfortable discussing "Crazy" Ben (Ha ha...) market views over here, they feel more comfortable dicussing their "Crazy" views someplace else.

Dastro, Rock and Dss have putting up some pretty good stuff (IMO) so come by and read it and comment on it if you want. It's up to you.

But if you want to make a "Crazy" EW chart for me I will put it up on a post :) (That would freak everyone out "How did Mutt learn to do that" LOL)

I wish you, everyone here and Cvienne a great Thanksgiving Day week. And hope to see ya around

Mangy Mutt

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks, Ben.

Andy T said...

I'll keep posting my work (when I'm in town) at 5pm Sunday nights. I'm in The Woodlands right now, but will be thinking about markets in my down time this weekend--will be able to post.

in re: other folks....

Certain people have become personae non gratae for me, and my life is better for it. I personally think Denise/dss is one of the craziest/scorned/misandrynistic people I've ever come across on the Internet. Thor is just a sidekick-type person who molds his personality to whichever group he runs with. Mannwich, unfortunately, was just sucked into the triumvirate.

They're all fairly intelligent folks (as we all our) with something to offer. Unfortunately, they can't take any direct challenges or arguments without losing it. It's definitely a Facebook/sewing circle type of deal. And, that's OK.

So, Chet, let it go man. Take some time off and refresh the spirit. Come back with some crisp material when you're ready.

Andy T said...

Would also add that the written word comes out a bit "harsher" than when something is said verbally or with 'intonations.'

I have to censor myself a lot when I write, otherwise things would really come out wrong.

That stated, the 7.30 comment was censored and it still came out that way.

Not easy said...

Andy - I agree it is not easy (And especially in blog form) to write out thoughts and ideas the way they are meant.

Hell it is difficult enuff just trying to speak to people and have them understand. But when we speak we at least have voice inflection and facial expressions - None of that on blogs.

For what it is worth, I think you do a great job on conveying your concepts in your technical posts - They make since to me anyway...

Mangy Mutt

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.