TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Sunday Evening Post

Sunday Evening Post

Good Evening Capitalists,

There's not a lot of to say about last week--not much really happened in the markets when all was said and done. Both the S&P and DXY finished the week nominally higher, but it wasn't anything to write home about. I suppose the big highlight was the Dollar finally stopped going down. Unfortunately for us Dollar bulls, one week does not a trend make--we have plenty of work ahead to prove some sort of "real bottom."

The S&P continues to be an uninteresting grind higher. There were a few moments last week when it looked like we might be in store for a decent correction, but those moments were fleeting. The Bottom Line: It looks like S&P needs to correct back to the 1132-1154 zone before putting in a final wave higher that should rigorously test the April highs.

Market Update 24 October 10

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This is all I have to add... CV...

241 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 241 of 241 Newer› Newest»

McFearless said...: I was wondering if a hedge fund would get busted in a day or two when the berkshire being questioned by the SEC was linked early this morning, I figured it was only a matter of time....divert the focus!!!!!!; October 25, 2010 at 3:51 PM
cv said...: @Amen

Rayden WINS!; October 25, 2010 at 3:51 PM
Leftback said...: Ben

I will include a list of frou frou drink bars.
You're gonna love the Apple.; October 25, 2010 at 3:53 PM
cv said...: @McF (3:51)

There's always "the pledge", "the turn", and "the prestige"...; October 25, 2010 at 3:54 PM
72bat said...: zerohedge servers must be getting major hits today? long waits & very slow loading; October 25, 2010 at 3:57 PM
McFearless said...: NYC is perhaps the only city in the world with enough frou frou options for me....I'm going to paint that whole town frou frou; October 25, 2010 at 3:57 PM
Leftback said...: Great movie. Michael Caine.

Still time for a 79.xx handle on USDJPY, and for a EEM double top.; October 25, 2010 at 3:57 PM
I-Man said...: This afternoon was classic... tomorrow's gonna be funner.

May even be a stunner...; October 25, 2010 at 3:58 PM
Everyone's Ex-Girlfriend said...: "I'm going to paint that whole town frou frou"

I kno, right?; October 25, 2010 at 3:58 PM
Leftback said...: "May even be a stunner..."

Or it might just be a bummer.; October 25, 2010 at 3:58 PM
Leftback said...: POMO tomorrow, BITCHEZ.; October 25, 2010 at 3:59 PM
cv said...: @Amen

Monthly 3lb...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKFQHKGjeUo; October 25, 2010 at 4:00 PM
McFearless said...: big Michael Caine fan here, he's got serious style.; October 25, 2010 at 4:01 PM
karen said...: fxa closed on LOD, what's up with that?!; October 25, 2010 at 4:02 PM
McFearless said...: this is probably one of the more jacked up daily charts we've seen in a while; October 25, 2010 at 4:04 PM
Leftback said...: There will be more MOMO as long as there is a POMO.
LB is a poet, and you didn't know it.; October 25, 2010 at 4:05 PM
cv said...: OK peeps...

Gotta go...

CV has no action on Dallas-NYG game tonight (except for FF)... where the FIRST HALF YEAR prize will be awarded in the SC League...

Basically... Go Bo Jacksons - Go Ahmad Bradshaw...

For that matter... I'll say go New York (football Giants)... except Hakeem Nicks...; October 25, 2010 at 4:06 PM
McFearless said...: this could have been quite the day for a nimble day trader, some big swingers out there; October 25, 2010 at 4:10 PM
AmenRa said...: CV

Rejected in front of the whole arena. Ouch.; October 25, 2010 at 4:19 PM
I-Man said...: Oh we knew it, but you blew it...; October 25, 2010 at 4:19 PM
karen said...: ben.. so true.. dto was up over 3pts but i decided to hold.. only up a pt now, lol.. i still think it has 72 on it at least..; October 25, 2010 at 4:21 PM
Leftback said...: The QE2 Bond Report 10.25.10

Not a lot to say today. Shit was mainly up. POMO tomorrow.

Corpies: LQD 0.36%; AGG 0.00%; JNK 0.30%; HYG 0.39%;
Govies: TLT 0.29%; IEI -0.06%; TIP 0.30%
Hedgies: TBT -0.72%; October 25, 2010 at 4:26 PM
karen said...: okay.. i'm running off with thots of frou-frous dancing.. no no no

actually, look who else is calling for Greece demise:

El-Erian says Greece will default in three years; October 25, 2010 at 4:26 PM
karen said...: Convertbond

Watching Motorcycle sales, 383k last yr vs 724k in 2007, lower 15 consecutive qtrs Harley Davidson; October 25, 2010 at 4:29 PM
Leftback said...: That was the tobacco-spitting, seed-chewing bond report, before I go get me some grits and some Jim Beam and go bowling...; October 25, 2010 at 4:30 PM
McFearless said...: I take that as being a bigger statement from him than Roubini, El-Erian used to work at the IMF....he knows what default is.

I'm still suspect of Nouriel Roubini for some reason, can't put my finger on it.; October 25, 2010 at 4:30 PM
karen said...: oh! check this out!!

http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/2010/10/potential-wolfe-wave-in-action.html; October 25, 2010 at 4:31 PM
harry wanger sighting said...: in the zerohedge sigtarp piece, we're privy to this from wanger-san:

Harry let me ask you at what level of the S&P should we be trading? Also, what were your sentiments at the 2007 top?

HarryWanger
on Mon, 10/25/2010 - 14:35
#675935
I believe the market is fairly valued right now based upon current S&P earnings. I also think the market will overshoot to the upside as they always do to close the year at the highs.

In 2007 I was holding mostly gold purchase in 2003/2004. I was trading in and out of equities daily long and short with no long term exposure. I thought the SPX was a bit rich but again, I just played what the market was giving me up or down.; October 25, 2010 at 4:34 PM
Leftback said...: Love our Wanger.

Karen, LB can show you some position sizing any time.; October 25, 2010 at 4:36 PM
McFearless said...: within the comments on that link, would like to look into this:

"Another point Tim Wood, of CyclesMan, who I used to subscribe to, has studied the entire history of the Dow, and concluded that if this 4 year cycle tops on or before November, of 2010, then there is a 100% likelihood the next four year cycle low will be below the March 09, four year cycle low, providing further validation for Terry's 40 year cycle predictions."; October 25, 2010 at 4:36 PM
Leftback said...: "I just played what the market was giving me up or down."

That's how the big boys do it, son. Easy...; October 25, 2010 at 4:37 PM
McFearless said...: wanger must be a fafillionaire

the only other guy I know that rich is Dr. Evil.; October 25, 2010 at 4:37 PM
Leftback said...: Bye all, LB is off to play futbol.; October 25, 2010 at 4:37 PM
karen said...: Ben.. i've been following El-Erian for many years.. back when he didn't have to be politically correct. (Back when he was a virtual nobody at Pimco, pre Harvard stint.) He is a smart man. His last write-up was clear:

http://www.pimco.com/Pages/TheFedFeelsCompelledtoExperiment.aspx; October 25, 2010 at 4:38 PM
karen said...: however, according to ZH: Deutsche Bank’s Jain Says World Can’t Allow a Sovereign Default.; October 25, 2010 at 4:39 PM
McFearless said...: thing is, Wang man claimed to be a small business owner, and if you know any small business owners, they don't have time for markets...hardly, which are a full time job, regardless of what anyone tells you, so ...color me a skeptic, never seen the guy post a trade in real time either, always after the fact, in which case, I also have a 100% success rate on my trades.; October 25, 2010 at 4:39 PM
karen said...: I love to hate toll for some reason.. (mr. toll, specifically)

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/25/toll-brothers-obtains-new-885-million-credit-line-in-vote-of-confidence; October 25, 2010 at 4:41 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

I agree, he is a very smart, capable man. I've always been impressed with PIMCO, as I've said before, I know a lot of people hate them, but there is a ton of talent at that place.

I will say though, I didn't really like When Markets Collide, not so much the message, just thought it was an awful read overall, but not every market pundit can be a good writer too.; October 25, 2010 at 4:42 PM
McFearless said...: a little lower in the thread, I really like TA when applied with a historical observation like this, def. gets me interested:

"Tim Wood counts the four year cycle low at the 666 low on the SPX around, from memory, March 9, of 2009. October is the 19 month since that low. He studied Dow history back to it's inception, and discovered the next four year cycle low goes below the previous low 100% of the time, if the advance off that low carries forward for 20 months or less (a very bearish stat). These stats were only for his paid subscribers, not posted publicly. November is the 20th month. So, if Terry is right and we do not make a higher high after November, those four year cycle stats would be in play. And because the move into the 2007 four year cycle peak was stretched, he suspects the next four year cycle low will come in a bit early, like around the late 2012 to March 2013 timeframe."

I would note this also matches up with work I've seen from EWI, not to mention, our boy andy has identified that general time frame as being very important with his counts.

sometimes the stars align; October 25, 2010 at 4:45 PM
I-Man said...: The tricky part about cycles is they arent linear.

There are cycles within the cycles, and from the rudimentary work I've done, determining the direction of price ahead of the cycle shift is tricky as well.

I'll drop some MA on that ass, from Aug 15 of this year:

"Understanding the difference between the macro and micro is critical. To an ant, we are macro. To the universe, we are just an ant. Comprehending the hardwiring and the distinction between macro and micro opens the door yielding a glimpse of a deeply coded complexity that is fascinating."

"The lowest monthly closing of the Dow took place in Feb 09 holding the 1998-2000 Breakline Channel from the last cycle that produced the LTCM crisis. From the technical perspective, this was where support on the extreme should form. The extreme support lies at the bottom of that channel, which back then was 4000. We then rallied after a perfect 17.2 month decline (8.6 x 2) for 13 months into April, where the Pi turning point was due. We did not close above the 2007 Breakline Channel. Even if the Dow falls into June 2011, it looks like technical support will remain at the 7400 area by then- NO NEW LOWS. August is still a turning point in TIME. The weeks are 8/2 and 8/30. There appears to be an opposite trend into November, a reaction into January, and a move thereafter going into June 2011. But the key, is global corellation."; October 25, 2010 at 5:17 PM
I-Man said...: Further:

"Only a low the last week of Aug would warn we could flip to the upside. This is NOT going to be a walk in the park. The markets are going to be very volatile and we have to pay close attention to the outcome of the Sept/Oct time period. We are preparing to make a very important directional change."

Dude wrote that shizz in the beginning of August.

We did indeed low in the last week of August.

Jeff Cooper has also called for a cycle change in November.

Catching the price direction right is going to be paramount.

I usually keep 2 charts going, a support and a resistance, and they're both on the brink.; October 25, 2010 at 5:22 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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