I often think that in another place and time, I might have tried my hand as a skit writer for Saturday Night Live...
Anyway, last night I was doing my usual C'MON MAN Monday Night football thing, (it was a particular night because I had some important things riding on the outcome involving payouts in some Fantasy Leagues)... When I woke up this morning, I did my usual thing and did a quick check around the blogosphere to see what was happening...
I came across this post at andytsgang.blogspot.com
This was from bergsten, (who CV still suspects is CNBCS)... Anyway, as a host myself, I feel it appropriate to comment...
First of all, I want to say that I thought it was a very accurate portrayal (by bergsten)... So basically, if I were to have made a comment in that thread, I would have said "Thumbs Up"...
I'm going to touch on a few issues...
Bergsten was correct in the unfolding of events last December... Most people easily remember that the Ritholtz blog was where these personalities (who are passionate about economics/politics/socio-economics) were collected in the first place...
I can only speak from my own POV, but the thing that used to bother me about the Ritholtz blog was the fact that BR seemed to be acutely intent on executing a form of control, and keeping things filed into some kind of tidy order... I remember having "codes" with I-Man (and others), where we would exit to abandoned threads to talk about the tape and other things... It was like truckers changing CB channels...
I'm critical about BR for a lot of things, but in the end, I have no right to criticize him for how he wants to run a blog that he spends time and effort to produce...
It was (to me) natural, that Andy (and others) were feeling the same thing, and A LOT of credit should go to Andy T for creating a new space (last August) that eventually many regular posters at TBP decided was to their liking as it was a little more "user friendly"...
That lasted a few months until Andy had to close up shop (because of a new job)... It happened without warning, and basically, on a Sunday night... By the next Morning (Monday), bergsten had set up a new shop... I can honestly say that had I known Sunday Night, I would have done the same thing... The difference? 3 hours... (California time versus East Coast time)... I was already asleep in bed in the moment it happened...
My thoughts, (when visiting the new site - Monday morning) were...
- Oh good... at least this thing is still in tact
- Someone is going to have to take care of content going forward (not an easy job)
- Damn this page is ugly
- If it's not ANDY's anymore, it's going to need a new identity
CV was the first one to "suggest", in that thread, that a name (not andytsgang), and a SLOGAN would be appropriate... I suggested that everyone nominate something, and karen came up with TRADERS-ANONYMOUS... I've been involved in situations where things are stolen, so I did not delay while an entire grand debating society deliberated on the outcome... CV is NOT a fan of "too many cooks"... So I registered the blogspot...
The rest, was basically played out in public... I know, for about a week (and ever since), I was subject to intense HATRED by certain populations... Others gave me the benefit of the doubt... Within a week, I decided that I would never be able to make a bunch of people happy, so I did a Jerry Maguire, and took my ONE CLIENT (ahab), and went another direction...
That's where it still stands (10 months later)...
What's the outcome? What's this blog all about?
If I could characterize it, I'd say it's about DISSENT... EXPRESSION & DISSENT... Most who are involved in trading (as most here do in a not insignificant way), know about DISSENT... You always have to challenge your own resoning... I, personally, find myself enraged mostly towards people & groups who simply accept the status quo... I could conjure up many metaphors here, but the best would probably be the American Revolution... Let's put it this way, if THE INTERNET had existed back in late 1700's, I doubt the AR would have ever occurred... I doubt BR's "tsk" "tsk" letters to King George would have cut it...
So basically, I ENCOURAGE live debate, and even "shouting matches" on this blog... While I don't model myself after Zero Hedge, I'd say that I do fundamentally like their "fight club" mentality... I think that you'll find here that after a good fight, people pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and shake hands in the end...
So basically... Come here and say anything you want to say (but prepared to get pistol whipped if somebody woke up on the wrong side of bed)... I DO NOT edit and delete comments (need to address that subject, because it was pointed out in the bergsten thread that I DID edit out a comment on one occasion in the past)...
It was a comment by Mutt... Frankly, it was so long ago that I forgot the exact subject matter, but I do remember, that before I took it off, I addressed, to Mutt directly, that I was going to do so... I basically said, "let's not go there at this time"... Maybe that was an ERROR on my part... Little did I know that one isolated instance (in which I did my best to explain why I was doing it at the time), would get tossed back in my face...
Anyway, if Mutt is reading this, he should remember that occasion, and acknowledge that I am correct in what I'm saying now... Unless you failed to see my comment as to my actions...
In any case... What you see is what you get on this blog... I've been banned from posting comments at TBP, so basically if I have to address a TWSWB POV, I have to do it here... I have a user handle at Zero Hedge (but I rarely post there)... Any appearance at andytsgang.blogspot.com is met like a sweaty person walking into a mosquito factory...
So I post my ideas here... And I've said before... I'm an equal opportunity assassin... Nobody is too big or too small to be put under my microscope... As a fair exchange, I don't object to being placed under anyone elses microscope...
Sometimes it's going to be calm, sometimes thought provoking, sometimes boring, sometimes whimsical, sometimes rowdy... I don't care... All you need to do here (and to keep this thing alive), is to BE ALIVE, and to BE ALIVE, you have to BE INVOLVED (not just the "consenting" & "polite" parts of you [which is the stuff of failed relationships, over time])...
So have at it...
CV
267 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 267 of 267 Newer› Newest»Give me a few 500 lots to swing around, and I'll blow some Gann's, and jump some fib's too.
Leftback - I hear you on the car problems, I have a 74 Charger SE Softtop with a 440 .10 overbore. That puppy will move
Last week the oil pressure went for 55psi to Zero, fortunatly I was able to pull it off the road real quickly.
It turns out there is a shaft that runs from the distibuter to the oil pump, it most have broke or come dis-lodged.
At least is has NO COMPUTERS
Mangy Mutt
I'd rather be gray than bald... I'm going to look like this Rechler guy in the not too distant future
@Mutt
Sorry... I was away for awhile...
You're pretty funny... I always liked your sense of humor...
It's not my job to WEIGH IN on one side or another on what you were saying above...
I'll get to an explanation of what I define as GROUPTHINK later... It happens that I'm a little distarcted at the moment on some other things that don't allow me to respond in a thinking away...
It's a little different (ironically so) when you're looking at (and reacting to), a tape...
I suppose it's a lot like a football game where you have a playbook that you practice scenarios all week, but then when the game comes, you just REACT to what is happening...
You don't have time to draw up a new playbook in the middle of the game...
Volume.
If we don't see volume next Wednesday (11/3), we never will.
The pros are bargain hunting.
Or is it the algos bear hunting?
DL
x 100. Dude.
DL, you know it is easier to move a market on no volume..
Karen,
BB has no effect on LB.
Only you can levitate my assets.
tradefast
stopped $GS long for peanuts, and shorted $SPY
2 minutes ago via web
mrtopstep
PIT BULLTHE MKT WITH 9 LIVES---BOT SOME GOOG AND BIDU TODAY---SO FAR SO GOOD
Thats quite a game of hot potato there from the Topstep crew...
Kinda reminds me of that clip Nic posted a long time ago of people dancing after the music stops.
goog long I sort of like, bidu idea not so much
4% on the 30y. LB almost fancies a quick TLT here.
After durables, maybe fade morning sellers.
Could be worse I guess... I could be doing this shit in a pit full of meatheads, getting screamed at, pushed around, and spit on.
TLT decidedly bearish.. trend down.. ugly and not oversold yet.. have at it, if you wish..
everyone waiting for FOMC? how about a pre-fomc surprise.
@mcF
This ones for you...
Why the Dow Usually Rallies After Midterm Elections
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/whythedowusuallyralliesaftermidtermelections
Great... so before we had the stock market making gains BECAUSE of the upcoming elections, now it's going to rally because IT ALWAYS RALLYS after the elections...
That ought to take us to the SUPER BOWL indicator (for yet another reason to rally)...
if we close green that's only two times of the last 11 we did so following an up vix/up S&P day of the last 11 occurances, I note this is occuring during some important pivot dates.
zerohedge
Deep Thoughts From Paul Tudor Jones On The Sino-US Relationship http://bit.ly/bPLC1P
By the way...
What ever happened to the:
As goes January, goes the year indicator?
or the as the first week in January, so goes January indicator?
It seems all INDICATORS that flash negative are tossed aside...
atask
Stephen Roach: "Pathetic" for US to blame our problems on China. We have trade deficits with everybody. $FXI $UUP ##mkt #buttonwood
atask
Roach: It's pretty simple but "even some Nobel prize winners who write columns for the NYT can't figure this out." $FXI $UUP #buttonwood
everyone waiting for FOMC? how about a pre-fomc surprise.
Always possible....
almanac still hypes that every year CV, much like they do lots of things....since 1950, when a new earth was created....or something like that.
even some Nobel prize winners who write columns for the NYT can't figure this out
LOL. Buy more Chinese plastic things !!
ZIRP reverses all normal indicators. Cancel the election thing.
atask
Chanos: I was half-joking last yr but China's parallels to Dubai are there. We estimate construction = 60% of economy. Vast majority RE. $$
ben.. fxp is pretty near its 52 week low.. just sayin..
Cvienne - Like I said earlier - I SUCK as a trader (But I have been getting better, it will take time) So, I have no real clue what it is like to have to read tapes - Yet.
Thanks, I think I can be fairly homorous at times, besides nothing really bothers me and I look for the good things in life.
I look forward to your full analogy on Groupthink
Mutt
ah, see I was hoping to see banana hands on that tudor jones link but no such luck
TLT would be a quick in and out, Karen. With size, though.
dl -
maybe lb's bmw computer got cross-wired with the exchanges' computers.
lb-
are they co-located, y'know, like the twins?
yeah I've considered FXP but as stated at the start of the year, I was rightly short China already with no reward. The reality is I can't use the proper instruments to short that market effectively like a hendry or a chanos....FXP is really a bet against China's banks, not China itself.
EEM double top approaching. Tomorrow, I think.
@McF
I love this quote (from link)
"...many experts have said in the past that this proves the markets like gridlock in Congress. Gendreau offers a different explanation: The markets hate uncertainty. "Before the mid-term election there's a lot of uncertainty, and often one party swept in a lot of seats along with the presidential election and that gets reversed to some extent," Gendreau says
"
This is, of course, as opposed to the CERTAINTY that you have after the elections...
- Like the CERTAINTY for hope & change after 2008
- The CERTAINTY of all the wonderful positive effects QE2 is going to have
- The CERTAINTY that 3-4 million jobs are going to be saved or gained if we only spend this $1.5 trillion right here & now...
from the article:
“If you treat it symptomatically and ignore the structural issue, you will never solve the problem.”
QE....does nothing at all to solve the structural issues.
CV,
That is what we now call, JA Analysis.
Durables could be HOT, new home sales COLD tomorrow.
Could be an interesting JOHNNY HOUR.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10/bofa-jpm-get-texas-subpoenas-class.html
Leftback - I would have to agree, I have read Elliot Wave and Fibo and a few other books on TA and even though Andy may have a good grasp at fine tuning things in a way that make sense, it is still pretty much Greek to me.
However I believe a large portion of not getting a good handle on it (At this point) is because ZIRP has such an influence.
Maybe in a couple few years, I can get a better reading of TA, but at this point it seems to be a lost cause.
You, with your Latin sounding Bond Reports and Andy in his Greek sounding TA and I barely understand Engrish....
Mangy Mutt
Ben (3:52) - All it does is add to the You know what storm, Karen was talking about.
Mutt
mm - it's after 4, have at it! 8^)
***********************************
as for me, this essay Algorithms and red wine: Is the “digital hive” a soft totalitarian state?
resonates for me as a "20-something-in-the-60's" and the writing is reminiscent of the good doctor, a little hunter s thompson-esque:
"Meanwhile, we have our social networking software to better weave us into the hive. Social networking software, now there’s a term that should scare the piss out of anyone with an IQ over 40. It means the database as hive reality. Facebook, online banking, shopping, porn, years of one’s life playing electronic games or whatever, online dating and reducing romance and companionship to fit the software. Or 4,000 Facebook “friends,” data on 4000 Americans voluntarily collected for Facebook corporation. The concept of “friends” is cheapened, rendered meaningless as it passes through a database. In fact, all human experience is cheapened by that process. Information is not reality"
"But the actual world revolves around meeting our genuine needs, which may or may not involve money. In the big picture, money is just one small, much abused abstract tool. Money has been abused from the beginning, probably about fifteen minutes after the first shekel was minted, but now the abuse has reached such levels that the entire notion of money is collapsing in on itself. Our concept of money needs to be reevaluated and probably abandoned in the distant future.
The bottliberia waiter comes with something on a plate I can actually -- by pure luck -- identify. Octopus gnocchi. The conversation rolls on.
“What do you believe allowed such abuse and calamity?” I ask.
An intense young woman leans across the table, all black hair and red lips, making an old man moan and sigh inwardly.
“Fossil fuels, of course,” she says. “An unnatural supply of energy. But once that is gone, we're going to have to go back to a whole different way of doing everything. Everything.”
“Spot on,” I agree. At that moment she could have gotten me to agree that the earth is flat.
LB nibbled on a juicy yield play late on, but only 0.4% of LB's STASH.
That's the way the pros do it, son.
LB is still pithy even after 4.
Mutt,
QE is far more about perception than any kind of quantified reality.
as for TA and it's "lost cause"
you ever play a guitar?
when you first try, it hurts your hands/fingers pretty bad, if you practice for one week though, I would bet by Saturday night you'd be able to play at least three chords with only a little discomfort, eventually you don't even look at the fret board anymore and it actually feels good to play.
TA.....it's just like that.
don't give up.
Gotta go peeps...
I'll be back in Ra's corner to catch up...
Pleasure talking to you mutt... I'll be back with a more detailed explanation of GROUPTHINK when I have time...
Basically, my response will be along the lines of the definition of ecological homogeneity...
Which refers to "all of the same or similar kind or nature. In ecological terms, it can also be expressed as a lack of, or reduction in biodiversity..."
Especially since I've gotten into "growing things", I've learned that biodiversity is a GOOD thing, not a BAD thing...
Thus, my negative POV on groupthink, and positive POV on biodiversity...
so is balsa wood
LQD and TLT have dandruff.
http://washingtondc.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel10/wfo102610.htm
Brevity is the soul of wit, chaps.
bat, i couldn't get that link to work.. maybe later?
72bat - Interesting article, I work in databases and computer stuff - I understand my way around it and other things like it fairly well.
Things that were brought up in that article are one of the reasons I leave my exposure to what my be placed in one of these databases to a minimum.
Now it is impossible not to have some exposure, but we can limit it. Not use our "Club Card" with certain purchases and what not.
Mutt
k -
link works for me on my office pc
try highlighting and copying link info?
if still, no go, i'll email
cv -
re yours @ 4:05, you might enjoy the "red wine" link as it's set in italy in a bottliberia
Everyone should read that PTJ piece that Karen linked...
cv -
this para might resonate with you
Algorithms and red wine:
"I’m gonna take a wild shot here and say that understanding and liberation, come through self-discipline and self-denial, and that it’s nearly impossible for Americans to practice self-discipline. They cannot imagine why self-discipline, and a more ascetic life, becoming less dependent on the faceless machinery of algorithm driven virtual money, is necessarily liberating."
Ben - I have ZERO, I mean NO NONE musical apptitude. I have 2 CD's neither one I bought, if it ain't on the radio it don't get listen too.
But, I do understand your analogy about guitar playing and it makes good sense, I agree to get good at something, you post endure the pain of getting good at it.
An example would be Leftback, he understands the ebb and flow of the bond market - (The Effing Computer in his car.... Not so much) Now I highly doubt he just picked up one book, read it and understood everything. No I actually think he had to get a few lumps along the way before he "Truly" grasp what he knows today.
What I am saying is that with ZIRP and other stuff, it kind of knocks TA off center, kind of like trying to find North when a storm is blowing, it CAN be done, but not easily.
Now maybe Andy and/or others can still find the "North" of TA, but but QE4Ever does not make it easy.
Mutt
I-man,
I read it and wondered....what type of mindset/mood causes people here to take no action on these things, it would seem to me the perception of prosperity, despite it being false, enables the inaction.
I suppose others could, or would point out it's simply part of the plan to destory the United States.
Mutt,
if it were easy, there wouldn't be any money involved. ;-)
the PTJ article is really pretty sad....our exchange was cheap goods, many of which now sit in landfills....ugh.
ben -
not even "a mess of pottage"
Ben (4:23) - I hear you there, I did not expect it to be easy.... Wish it were...Sure....Expect... NO :)
Maybe my Lotto Trade will work out though...
It goes like this, get a pay check, spend it all on Lotto tickets.
So far NO LUCK!!!
Mangy Mutt
in other biz news, we just received a $1.7 mil order from china for heavy processing machinery. doing our part to claw back some of those $ exchanged for plastic crap. of course, the $ aren't worth quite so much as when we bot the plastic crap
Mutt, there is nothing wrong with TA... if anything, its gotten more advanced, as volatility has forced folks to go back and do their price homework...
There is price action, and TA is the study of it.
Now, has the price action changed as a result of QE, absolutely, but things remain in flux always... there is always an ebb and flow, and always money sloshing around looking for somewhere to sit.
Thats all price action is, the sloshing of money around to different spots (ie: assets,) that are themselves constantly in flux according to their own "vibration" if you will.
So, as a price technician, you can see the tape clearly, and take trading actions off that, but you can still be wrong and not make money.
My frustration, isnt so much in reading the tape, its not knowing when someone else who is good at reading the tape, is going to deliberately blow out an intraday technical level, and set in motion a temporary change of events...
That, my mangy friend, has always gone on, since the day the first market began, and will continue to happen.
And has little to do with QE... thats just the way shit works.
The QE2 Bond Report 10.26.10
As we continue to await the arrival of Her Majesty, the bond market is showing signs of weakness, with dandruff appearing in the LQD and TLT charts and even AGG showing slippage. Once again, it was "risk on" Charlie, as LB's beloved JNK and HYG forged ahead once more. Of note, the B/Ds front-ran the POMO yesterday but even the FED buying 10s and 30s couldn't stem the dash for the lifeboats. That, my friends, is bearish action for the long end.
Corpies: LQD -0.53%; AGG -0.23%; JNK 0.25%; HYG 0.16%;
Govies: TLT -1.54%; IEI -0.36%; TIP -0.54%
Hedgies: TBT 3.04%
We did nothing in fixed income. We HEART our HY plays, and we picked up a small amount of a high dividend stock. Looking ahead, we suspect that durables might be WARM, leading to a bit more selling of Ts in the morning, after which yields might be attractive enough for a few nibbles once we see an anemic NEW HOME SALES number, and that will set off some weak dollar action again, we think...
Anyway, the last few days, the smart trade has been NO TRADE.
Stay thirsty, my friends.
Ben, check ur email for NYC food advice.
I heard theres a great authentic NY pizza place called Sbarro.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaKuT3dIwfc&feature=related
lb, still at work but will check it tonight, thanks for your help.
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