Sunday Evening Post & Morning Audibles

Posted by Andy T on Monday, September 6, 2010 /
Good Evening Capitalists,

Ahhh, can you feel it?

One can almost feel the first inkling of the seasonal change from Summer to Autumn. The morning weather here (Houston) is now bearable--"bearable" in the sense that one can walk his dog in the morning without becoming a sweaty and pissed off person. More importantly, though, America's most popular sport is officially back on the television--our modern era Gladiators have taken to the Coliseums--the masses will be appeased for awhile. I must admit that Autumn is my favorite season (Football, Thanksgiving, Halloween, nice weather, etc...) so the current whiff of change brings a smile to my face.

With that in mind, I took a more 'reflective' tone in tonight's posting. I went "deep" as it were....

Presented here are some very longer term wave models as well as a more "actionable" update. The Dollar "took the hit" as far as my attention was concerned in that the DXY only received a one page update--though, there should be enough in that one page to create a trading strategy for the next week.

Hope everyone had a good three day weekend.

Best, Andy







218 comments:

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McFearless said...

check out $RUT today....

September 7, 2010 at 4:20 PM
McFearless said...

whats up I. How's it going man?

September 7, 2010 at 4:21 PM
Leftback said...

The Bond Report 9.7.10

Today was a day where if you had gone long USTs on Friday, then you are the sh*t, or as LB would say, THE DOG'S BOLLOCKS.

Ts and IG outperformed HY today, and it was a big hard flattener, as a lukewarm auction of 3y kept buyers out at the long end, and even TIPS were well bid. Overall today was a lot more HUGH HENDRY than JULIAN ROBERTSON.

Corpies: LQD 0.75%; AGG 0.29%; JNK 0.08%; HYG -0.15%;
Govies: TLT 2.05%; IEI 0.40%; TIP 0.56%
Hedgies: TBT -3.94%

We did nothing. We are waiting for a H&S to form on TLT and then we will play the long bonds from the short side. We own AGG, LQD, HYG and JNK. No Treasuries. We think fixed income will be strong all week, including Ts as we see a 10y and 30y auction ahead of us.

September 7, 2010 at 4:26 PM
Leftback said...

England 2-1 up in Zürich.
Scotland 1-1 at home to Liechtenstein.... LOL...!!!

September 7, 2010 at 4:30 PM
karen said...

Hey, I!! Happy to see you.. have you been vacationing or working? Still planning on San Clemente? It is winter and miserable here today.. I cannot believe our lack of summer..

September 7, 2010 at 4:32 PM
karen said...

Not sure if this suit will get anywhere.. I'm not sure I agreed with the false advertising claims in the first place.. None-the-less.. my neighbor is a director (ex CEO and founder.)

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayyCprFMuIXk

September 7, 2010 at 4:34 PM
Leftback said...

"It is winter and miserable here today.. I cannot believe our lack of summer.."

Karen, you need to travel to find the sunshine !!

September 7, 2010 at 4:36 PM
mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I'm pretty sure I can tell you EWI update tonight: minor 3 has begun - AGAIN!

September 7, 2010 at 4:38 PM
karen said...

this was just sent to me concerning LQD:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/224140-bond-etf-draws-unusual-action?source=hp_wc

September 7, 2010 at 4:40 PM
I-Man said...

Classic trading day today...

YM hovertraded around the 50% fib of the Apr to July swing at 10350 (which is also the 78.6 of the Aug 31 low (9908) to the overnight high at 10471... confluence) throw in the fib's from friday's thrust and you had nice ranges and clean lines.

Got a little chopped around early trying to get a feel for the range, if the down move would continue, etc (I dont start until 40 minutes in, so missed the big early chunk,) but the bulk of the session was great intraday swing trading.

We hit the big pivot today overnight in the Dow and turned lower, so the downtrend looks set to hold... with that aforementioned fib resistance combo overhead at 10350, it will take some oomph to push higher... TopNotch Tim is on it.

But. If we thrust higher from here and this becomes a successful retest of the 50/78.6 at 10350, then bag the downside for awhile... the upside counts are right (es 1300).

Big time pivots coming this month, should be a blast.


Kauai was absolutely Irie and all around rad. If it wasnt for the dogs, we would have stayed (trading day would be about 4am to 10am, plenty of time to work, play, and surf.) Got some family farming it down there, and it looks like fun. Did not enter the internet once while I was gone... and honestly, after checking the news recently, decided to just stop checking it period. Canceling my FT, and tuning all of that babylon shit out... charts only.


No FF for I-Man this year, got too much other shit on the plate... but down to chatter and pseudoanalyze...

Later skaters,
-I

September 7, 2010 at 4:46 PM
McFearless said...

McHappy,

dude, I'm not even going to read them this week. I've got my own counts, this isn't P3, so I'll hit ignore so I don't get my bias on.

September 7, 2010 at 4:48 PM
McFearless said...

"Canceling my FT, and tuning all of that babylon shit out... charts only."

x1.618

September 7, 2010 at 4:50 PM
Leftback said...

K.,

That option buying in LQD could be someone getting long the HYG or JNK and short the LQD, as a way of playing the TIGHTENER.

LB is playing this with long JNK and then occasionally shorting the TLT via TBT, as the charts and the POMOs and auctions indicate.

The TIGHTENER, that's when you start with a WIDE SPREAD and then as PUNTERS ENTER the trade, the SPREAD TIGHTENS as Ts sell off and risk assets SWELL with capital as economic conditions heat up.

September 7, 2010 at 4:53 PM
karen said...

perhaps interesting.. crude to fall below $70?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTR9TZCuljk

September 7, 2010 at 5:02 PM
McFearless said...

i would lean toward that being arbitrage strategy rather than directional bet on LQD if only because options are so thin there normally, I highly doubt any big money trader targets something low volume for a directional bet and trades that many multiples of the average daily volume, the risk is enormous.

time will tell

September 7, 2010 at 5:03 PM
karen said...

$RUT-- potential bull trap: http://chart.ly/yvktrdr

$compq--Repelled by 200-day MA but technicals net positive as volume registers a distribution day http://chart.ly/vkh4shj

September 7, 2010 at 5:13 PM
McFearless said...

@Karen,

one of my wife's cousin's lives in San Clemente, he's a bodyguard for a rich and famous guy that is separated from wife/daughter. Her cousin is huge.

September 7, 2010 at 5:58 PM
Andy T said...

Interesting day. Nice move in the DXY today...Probably time to just run a stop at the 61.8% of todays bounce...around 82.28....

Ben...thank you for calling me the shet....appreciate that...

But, I will wreck your team this week.

September 7, 2010 at 6:06 PM
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