AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Creditcane™: I'm debating on whether or not to wait for everyone to return from vacation.



SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10) but below (2/5/10-5/6/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55) but back below the SMA(89). Pushing towards 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1051.87). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Back above the SMA(21). Midpoint at EMA(10). Was heading for its 50% retrace (still might). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.92).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.45). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still heading towards the 0% (it's coming). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1239.90).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Back below the 4x1 Gann and the SMA(21). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1.2878).



JNK
Doji day (not much movement for a risk off day). Still failing to close gap. Above the SMA(21), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 is holding. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below the SMA(21). Closed the gap from Fridays open. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 24.77).



AUDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(144) but below the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.8121).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish short day. Still above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4160.79). Trending up on the daily 3LB.



YEN (FXY)
Bearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 115.99).




LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 9.7.10

Today was a day where if you had gone long USTs on Friday, then you are the sh*t, or as LB would say, THE DOG'S BOLLOCKS.

Ts and IG outperformed HY today, and it was a big hard flattener, as a lukewarm auction of 3y kept buyers out at the long end, and even TIPS were well bid. Overall today was a lot more HUGH HENDRY than JULIAN ROBERTSON.

Corpies: LQD 0.75%; AGG 0.29%; JNK 0.08%; HYG -0.15%;
Govies: TLT 2.05%; IEI 0.40%; TIP 0.56%
Hedgies: TBT -3.94%

We did nothing. We are waiting for a H&S to form on TLT and then we will play the long bonds from the short side. We own AGG, LQD, HYG and JNK. No Treasuries. We think fixed income will be strong all week, including Ts as we see a 10y and 30y auction ahead of us.




45 comments:

Leftback said...

Nice. It's always been a quality wrap...

McFearless said...

damn, it was almost another 90% day today....if you aren't on the right side you are basically SOL.

Stay nimble squad.

Second Fantasy draft in under an hour.

McFearless said...

Head Full of Doubt/Road Full of Promise:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t43VgJ4U9_Q&playnext=1&videos=U1ju0Gh_c8k&feature=artistob

AmenRa said...

anime

CNBC dissed by Larry King & Sarah Palin: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adTnyC4MLB0

AmenRa said...

That didn't take long.

CV said...

I'm just getting back from the gym...

Thanks for the wrap Amen... It feels so out of whack with these markets right now, Its hard to make any sense out of things...

It's like reading teal leaves from a cup that was brewed many moons before...

CV said...

Maybe Tan Joe is right ...

"We need a catalyst"

Andy T said...

I have a biz dinner Thursday night in Calgary. Going to miss the season opener....

Sort of frustrated with that....

Andy T said...

Going to miss Adrian Peterson score 3TDs and run for 200 yards....and ruinate McFear's FF team.

CV said...

Big Dan doing his due diligence...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TIaeFaaHZKI/AAAAAAAAHcY/UKO1ZhPVXtg/s1600/spx60.png

Wow... that's alotta alliteration for a bored blogger doing peppy posts...

CV said...

Here Andy...

If you missed it... I started up with my football forecasts...

---

Early handicapping for NFL kickoff week...

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Thursday, Sept. 9 (8:30 EST)
Line: Saints by 5

Skip the "NFL Kickoff Concert" and lets get right to the game... Actually, I understand why the networks do these things... You know, to try and lure in new demographics towards football viewing by associating pop stars with NFL games... And, of course to sell advertising time (so all the Romans will know what to waste their money on)... But I digress...

Besides throwing to high school kids in Mississippi, Brett Favre hasn't seen much action this preseason... I'm skeptical that his 41 yo body will be able to make it through an entire NFL season, but I'm not stupid enough to automatically discard him as a possible threat... The issue with Favre, this year, is that teams are going to be COMING AFTER HIM (pressuring him with blitz packages)... The NFL is a copycat league... The "playbook" was exposed in last years NFC Championship game where Favre was treated the way your dog treats a stuffed animal... Minnesota's offensive line is much sketchier than they were last year...

Adrian Peterson is going to have to come up big here... He managed to put up big yards (and score 3 TD's in their last meeting, but he also coughed up 3 fumbles)... We'll see...

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have a defense that can put a lot of pressure on QB's, but Drew Brees negates a lot of that with his quick release and quick decisions...

Frankly, I don't like the matchup here... I think the Saints, player for player, scheme for scheme, match up very well vs. the Vikings... In last winter's NFC Championship, the game stayed close, but a lot of that was due to the fact that the Vikings were "on a roll" (after having trounced the Cowboys), and the Saints had been kind of sputtering for the last few games of the season, and were struggling with injuries in the defensive secondary...

The hardest thing in this game for the Saints to overcome, IMO, will be complacency... They will be receiving their Super Bowl rings, and the Superdome arena will be supercharged... Sometimes it's hard to stay "focused" in an atmosphere like that, and if the Vikings can play with discipline, they might be able stay in this game... I think they still have a chip on their shoulder from last seasons finale (for them)... I don't like the betting prospects, but "laying" 5 points seems to be a lot...

Simply on VALUE, I'd tend to take the VIKINGS for (0 units)... IOW - Not worth tossing $$ down on...

CV said...

@Andy

I know you were surprised that I took Aaron Rogers so early, but I did it for a reason...

He ought to be more of a "consistent" high scorer than any other player...

Let's put it this way... I had the 4th pick...

So... A Frank Gore or a Ray Rice may have outstanding games maybe once or twice a season (basically carrying a squad singlehandedly)...

Aaron Rogers has the potential to do that 5-6 times during the season (when he has 400+ yard games)...

A 400 yard game for a QB on a 25 yards = 1 point scheme equals 16 points (not including TD's)...

A running back who gets 100 yards gets 10 points (not including TD's)...

So lets say a QB has a 400 yard game and throws 3 TD's = 28 points...

A back would have to rush for 150 yards and score 2 TD's to match that...

More likely a top tier QB is going to do that...

CV said...

Plus... Frank Gore I'm worried about his health...

He's never made it thru a season without missing a few games...

DL said...

Peter Orszag favors extending the Bush tax cuts for two years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/07/opinion/07orszag.html

Andy T said...

cv:

I hear what you're saying. I sort of think about how much "marginally better" Aaron Rogers is going to be compared to some other QB you might have been able to pick up in later rounds. i.e. Tom Braday and Romo were still hanging out in the third round I think.

Compare that marginal improvement at QB vs. how much marginally better someone like Ray Rice might be compared to a back you might pick up a few rounds later.

I like Aaron Rogers a lot and he might pay off big. I just thought QBs and TEs were very cheap this year. In other words, I didn't see a big difference between the 9th and 10th QBs taken and the "top of the board." Ditto the TEs.

I could be wrong...it won't be the first time. he he.

Andy T said...

I don't think it makes a ton of difference either way...we may be "splitting hairs." You have to go with your 'gut' in FF drafts...

Your first three picks were Rodgers/Calvin Johnson/Stephen Jackson. Is that materially different than a Gore/Calvin Johnson/Romo(or Brady)? Probably not too significant...and if your logic is correct, then Rodgers will win those close games for you and you'll do well.

It's such a crapshoot at times...should be fun. Again, thanks for getting the guys together.

Jay Cutler's Mom said...

Speaking of QB's, I told my son he might want to try Donovan's chunky soup before games to minimize interceptions ... or get Devin (The U is in the house) Hester to eat some too.

That draft was fun.
2s2b

call me ahab said...

fwiw-

I picked Schaub in the 4th round- and Vernon Davis I think in the 5th round-

a top tier TE picks up as many yards and touch downs as most WR's-

and if you have a QB w/ a lot of yards in the air-

good pick I say

Andy T said...

What's up with the Yen?

Maybe those aging Japanese people don't mind a soaring Yen...helps them afford more things...

CV said...

@DL (9:21)

No wonder he did the "Snagglepuss" and exited STAGE RIGHT...

he was prolly asked to...

McFearless said...

Frank Gore worries me as well..we'll see.

I took Michael Turner tonight as the 6th pick in a 12 team league.

I also ended up with Jay Cutler at QB...not sure what to think about that, I'm not a fan.

CV said...

@2s2b

I gotta say... I think you drafted very well...

I'm not COMPLETELY happy with my team... But as Andy says... I WENT WITH MY GUT... Here's a little "CV draft insight" (if anyone is interested)... Random thoughts (for any of you who still have drafts to complete)...

- One of CV's PRIMARY concerns is INJURIES... I know that's like trying to predict the weather, but in drafting the first 4-5 rounds (where you're REACHING for talent), an injury can ruin your WHOLE SEASON... As Tom Brady drafters in 2008 when he went down for the season on in the 1st quarter of the first game... Season over... DONE!

- There are certain RED FLAGS I always put up "pre-draft"... To name a few... Frank Gore, Jonathan Stewart, Brandon Jacobs, Brett Favre (this year), Marques Colston, Shonn Greene, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice (perhaps - if they make him tote the rock too much - same with Chris Johnson), Steven Jackson (obviously), Rashard Mendenhall, Kevin Smith, Knowshon Moreno, Marion Barber, Joseph Addai, even Andre Johnson was out for a few games last year... On and on and on... These are PREMIER backs and receivers that will score you a lot of points when they are healthy, but they tend to get dinged up (meaning you're shopping for Tashard Choice sometime during mid-season to fill a hole (assuming that TC himself didn't pull a hammy)...

- I want WARRIORS on my team... Guys who will lace it up and play hurt... AARON RODGERS fits that mold... He got his brains beat out in the first 5 weeks of last season because left tackle Chad Clifton was out... GB is healthy (for now), and Rodgers ought not to get his face introduced to the turf as much this year... Who knows? Freak injuries happen all the time, but I like guys I think can stay healthy and give me 14 games... PEYTON MANNING is a great selection because he rarely takes sacks... Stuff like that...

- I like Joe Flacco (in many ways), for the same reason... Flacco played with a foot injury for most of last year which kept his production numbers down... But Baltimore INVESTS in it's offensive line... They make sure he's as well protected as is humanly possible...

- I ended up with some "glass menagerie" RB's this year... (Steven Jackson & Beanie Wells)... But part of my idea is that I'm going to be able to identify (and STEAL, the first HANDCUFF back that comes along when one of these marquis 1st-4th rounders eventually goes down for a few games...

- Therefore, I'd rather fill my squad with TOP picks that don't take as much abuse & punishment...

It's just CV's angle...

CV said...

@McF

Same INJURY theme (CUTLER)... With Martz (no blocking scheme) as coordinator, Jay Cutler will be lucky to exit this season with his internal organs in tact...

He's a good "platoon" option (he'll have some good games)... But you'd better have a backup ready...

I'm going to give you all a GIFT here...

Nobody drafted KYLE ORTON (probably in ANY leagues)...

Pick up Kyle Orton this week and start him in week 1 (vs. Jacksonville)... He'll probably light it up as much as any of the top tier QBS...

FF is all about MATCHUPS...

call me ahab said...

well . . .I'm hoping for the best for Cutler-

may be tough though- have to put all your faith in Martz-

fwiw- I'm pretty happy w/ my team- biggest unknown is Ryan Matthews-

hoping for the best there

CV said...

I'm watching the NIKKEI now...

I might have to do the REDUX of the "Nikkei don't lose that number" (9000) thread...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbIIwH9VsjM

CV said...

@ahab

Ryan Matthews, IMO, was a "fantastic" pick...

I can say that now that I know you refused to trade him to me... (NEVER - NEVER - If Goldman Sachs offers to buy your portfolio, trade it to them)...

Anyway... The main thing with Matthews is... He's young (and probably healthy)...

AND... San Diego has a great schedule of "cupcake" match-ups in the first 6 weeks of the season...

CV said...

CV has Ryan Matthews AND Aaron Rogers in another league...

as well as dallas Clark, Malcom Floyd, Hakeem Nicks, & Miles Austin...

STACKED, I tell u

McFearless said...

I'm not sure how I feel about my squad...I always feel this way about fantasy after the drafts.

CV said...

@Mcf

I haven't fully looked (at ur squad)... I'm gonna go take a peek...

call me ahab said...

CV-

he had is nose cauterized due to constant nose bleeds-

the only downside- outside of the "unknown" talent in the NFL

but who does SD have now that Tomlinson was traded-

I see him running all the balls inside the 20

CV said...

@McF

Shoestring analysis...

RIVERS - Should be solid, First 6 games for SD are cupcakes... NO LOSS, IMO, without Vincent Jackson... Nanee, Floyd, & Gates are solid...

COLSTON - I only worry about Brees spreadin' the wealth so much... Colston sometimes gets injured too...

GARCON - Ought to be solid... He's in the mold of an Anquan Boldin & Hines Ward... I like guys who don't mind DELIVERING punishment...

GORE - Ultraproductive... When healthy...

MENDENHALL - Can't get a read on him yet... Ray Lewis friggin' broke his bones on one hit... But u gotta like the Steelers relying on HIM & him only for their rushing production...

SHIANCOE - As long as Favre stays healthy, he ought to outperform most TE's in the league... Minny has a MURDER schedule until week 6 tho...

FORTE - Hard to say... Might flourish in the Martz scheme... Might also watch a bunch of balls fall helplessly to the ground while jay Cutler gets crumpled into a heap...

WELKER - He's a warrior type... I expect him to have a BIG YEAR... More than most expect... He might end up to be the LATE ROUND STEAL of the draft

BRADSHAW - As long as he stays healthy, he ought to be productive... The hard thing to do is figure "where"... I hate the idea of Brandon Jacobs vulturing TD's...

MARONEY - CV thinks he's a habitual under performer... Who knows though... One year he might wake up with a chip on his shoulder and prove everybody wrong... I will say that I think New Englands offense will be more productive this year... He may get his chances after all (at the goal line)...

JACOBY JONES - I liked him a few years ago... Then lost interest when all his potential production went to Owen Daniels & Kevin Walter... Maybe he finally gets his shot...

CHESTER TAYLOR - Good handcuff... In a Mike Martz offense, many players are going to end up in the hospital ward... CT might be a good option coming off the bench...

MARK SANCHEZ - I like the guy (personally), but he had a MISERABLE pre-season, the Jets can live with 15 points a game (now that Revis is signed)... He has NO VALUE...

DEFENSE & KICKERS - CV has NO COMMENT on... ever..

CV said...

@ahab

He's my PRE-CANDIDATE for rookie of the year...

McFearless said...

phils pulled out a big win tonight

McFearless said...

"I see him running all the balls inside the 20"

yeah, or they pass those to Gates

McFearless said...

I shouldn't have picked Jabroney, that was a mistake that one.

CV said...

"yeah, or they pass those to Gates"

...OR they throw JUMP BALLS to 6'5" Malcom Floyd

Anyway... MCF... YOU get the points (PHIL RIVERS)...

Who - by the way - is another player I like because he plays hurt and he plays with a chip on his shoulder...

... and isn't NOODLE ARMED...

Two things CV hates...

NOODLE ARMS & POODLE ARMS

call me ahab said...

I'm beat-

b22- no doubt- always many unknowns- you make a few educated guesses and hope for the best

AmenRa said...

Greece 12.09%, Germany 2.27%. Greece almost at the point of no return.



Oh wait...they were there before the EU "stress" test and never left.

CV said...

@Amen

I just hope it gives BUCKY a little escape velocity...

AmenRa said...

Yen staying frisky. BoJ must be having nightmares.

McFearless said...

European issues starting to re-emerge slowly but surely. Is gold about to have a blowoff top?

Nic said...

Morning.
If the Bank of Canada hike this morning I will be very surprised ....

AmenRa said...

Ben

There will be intervention in gold. Might not work but they'll try.

CV said...

new thread

McFearless said...

the market will overwhelm any intervention in gold, as if the fed hasn't already tried to stop it from going this high, in fact, the government technically already has intervened by putting a price on gold that is ridiculous....anyone else know what it is? If not I'd suggest looking that up, the market has already given the feds the finger on the price they came up with.

intervention doesn't ever work, the BoJ's attempts to bring the Yen down recently, not working, another pathetic attempt as well as a lesson in the arrogance of the potent directors.

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.