Morning Audibles 9.8.10

Let me re-work an old expression from Cramer...

"There's always a bull market somewhere, & I'm here to find it for you"... 
Jim Cramer

On a day like yesterday (and hopefully not today too), I might rework that phrase to something like...

"Sometimes there's a DULL market everywhere, and I can't help avoiding it with you"
CV

Tell me something, during an entire day of trading, and on the first day back after a long holiday weekend, after a long summer, the following are an array of TWEETS which came DIRECTLY from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (the largest open outcry futures market in any city in the galaxy not named Mos Eisley)... Or was that, the largest "wretched hive of scum & villainy"?... I might be mixing metaphors here...





@mrtopstep # futures DEAD HERE 20 locals in the pit NY lunch time no flow at ALL
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/07/mrtopstep-back-to-work-in-september-but-not-many-seem-to-be-back/
gathered from topstep that Tim is looking for spx sub 1000 before going higher..

themosmitsos

[3/3] Now the technical team of this crew is looking for "new lows <1000 before new highs >1127" keep in mind. Traders & Techs disagree

Here's an actual trade idea...







On Tuesday 7th September 2010, @mrtopstep said:

RT @Eubiquitous SPX FUT #1090.20# was 9/03 highs...decent area to cover TLT highs SPY LOWS..this reminds me of the US. DOL trade..have to break the "PAIR"..
LOL!! "The disparity in the numbers could either mean the market is due for a correction or the recent stock rally will keep going, analysts say."












262 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 262   Newer›   Newest»
Nic said...

That fail was EPIC.
Chop week continues, hurry back to work people!
Bucky doing a great job tho!

CV said...

C'Mon Bucky!

karen said...

morning! hilarious post, CV.. today is going to be torture!

karen said...

a hangover and weak coffee isn't helping..

CV said...

@karen

You get the assist for the TOPSTEP tweets...

That football play was the icing on the cake...

CV said...

Unfounded Rumor Of The Morning: BOJ Preparing For FX Intervention

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/unfounded-rumor-morning-boj-preparing-fx-intervention

More microPHONE management...

1 step forward... two steps back...

We're doing the Curly Shuffle again...

CV said...

Best comment of the morning...

"Why is the constitution NOT being followed but somehow the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 is?"...

karen said...

Oh brother, I can't wake up! The only bigger dud than me is the dollar..

CV said...

@karen

Bucky might just be caught in an EDDY today because of the BoJ rumors...

I thought THIS was interesting...

Goldman Flow Now Selling EUR Outright, Advises Leveraged Accounts Are Caught Wrong Way In EUR Collapse

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-flow-now-selling-eur-advises-leveraged-accounts-are-caught-wrong-way-eur-collapse

CV said...

I was making jokes earlier this year about GS's WRONG WAY market calls...

But lately, it seems that some seem to be pointing in the right direction...

Even Mr. Magoo (Greenspan), seems to be TRYING to get some religion recently.

karen said...

was reading this

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/crowdquery-greatest-mistake-of-the-crisis/

and was very interested in the comment by "the bankster"
September 7th, 2010 at 7:41 pm
The mistake (once the crisis was in motion) was doing nothing after the Bear Stearns failure to decouple the remaining TBTF firms. I worked at a relatively well-run bulge bracket firm in CDS trading where some thought the BSC rescue meant that LEH was backstopped, others figured the Feds had a master plan, and still others didn’t want to even talk about LEH counterparty risk for fear of having their fingerprints on the eventual losses. When the Fed arranged an eleventh-hour emergency netting session that fateful Sunday night it became clear that they had done nothing, and I mean that literally, to prepare for another failure. The British were better prepared for Dunkirk. I sat at my desk saying is a joke, what have they been doing for the last six months, ignored the special trading session, and just braced myself for London to open. Sorkin’s wrong: the story is the nonfeasance over the summer, not the nonfeasance that weekend

karen said...

CV.. from Jamie this morning: EUR/JPY (106.80) and USD/JPY (83.95) have firmed to session highs on the “don’t be short ahead of intervention” talk making the rounds this morning. CAD/JPY demand is helping spur USD/JPY short-covering in addition to the BOJ rumors noted below.

And an article on johnny leaving the market:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2010-09-08-mart08_ST_N.htm

McFearless said...

the fact that people think the crisis really was about Lehman brothers is just hilarious to me.

Lehman Brothers....please....a small spec.

McFearless said...

“don’t be short ahead of intervention”

this is everyone's thesis that is long, they have no other argument whatsoever.

this is a riot to me, what intervention has worked....please name at least 5, otherwise, these commentes are straight up idiot.

McFearless said...

see canada has done the third straight rate hike, soft landing, lol.

karen said...

Here we are at my top again : (

CV said...

@karen

I agree (for today), on that... But really, when MICROPHONE news hits, the horse is already out of the barn...

Noise in the long run...

Tradeable only to insiders

karen said...

Meredith: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abteMLSfG.AE&pos=3

CV said...

How long has the BOJ been "intervening"...

What's it... Going on 30 years now?

Ooh... I'd better get with the program...

karen said...

mrtopstep
$ES_F $GS bot 800 SPU 1096.50 up to 1100.00

karen said...

themosmitsos

Still short SPX, my stop moved a little higher 1094, but it ain't looking good

the professor said...

A number of different chemists are finding elevated levels of toxic hydrocarbons in the bloodstream of Gulf coast residents.- NC

the professor concludes that BP will be in litigation indefinitely

McFearless said...

I think this thing Yelnick is doing with the fractals vs. waves is really ridiculous.

Waves ARE fractals, for starters, and second....this whole fractals said we would do this and waves said we would do this

uh...no

the person interpreting each of them said we would do X, that's not what the wave theory itself said, there are always many outcomes, some more probable than others.

waste of time and energy there imo.

CV said...

@professor

Are you going ROBOT TRADER on us?

Or are you just fantasizing about your ISLAND? :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uefp1UaGDow

McFearless said...

not to mention, he is basing the wave call off a nested 1-2 which could easily be pointed out as a terrible forced count as that first wave 1 in this count has no extended leg as well as the fact that they don't even all look like motive waves, some could easily be counted 3's.

i still see 3's and triangles everywhere, nothing that is real clear up or down, just a real headache inducer instead.

CV said...

@karen

TOPSTEP might be running into the "10 handle" around this level...

So what was DULL, may now become EXCEEDINGLY DULL...

karen said...

Ahab, your blog posts are very thoughtful! very interesting..

CV said...

@McF

TRIANGLES...

When Bernanke said he was going to drop money from the sky, little did we know it would be in the form of "paper footballs"...

http://www.anediblemosaic.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/paperfootball.jpg

McFearless said...

either way, all these calls for S&P 1,300 are way premature in my book, lets see what we do around the 1127 if/when we get there first. This has proven to be stiff resistance, so just as bears can't break down the 1040 with any authority bulls are going to have step up to the plate and bust through that upside resistance are or risk failing there again.

if they can and it looks right I'll just go long for the ride, time will tell.

karen said...

from http://macro-man.blogspot.com/ : So where does this leave us? It still all seems too fast and too soon for Euro collapse Part Deux, and the 40 point round trip in German 10yr yields over the past week perhaps indicates that the market isn’t quite sure of itself either. And though we are fully onside with the macro concerns re Europe we feel the timing is wrong. As for Switzerland, unless they manage to rent more space to park all the money flowing their way, they are in danger of doing a Mr Creosote. "One more wafer thiiiin swieees franc, sir"?

McFearless said...

I would like to punch Boehner in the face

for the record

karen said...

ben, ben, ben.. first lets see what we do around 1101 !!

karen said...

mrtopstep

09:32:29 AM]: GS up to 1.7k SPUs bought

McFearless said...

"And though we are fully onside with the macro concerns re Europe we feel the timing is wrong."

Translation:

Everyone that does fundamental analysis eventually MUST think technically.

McFearless said...

Karen,

ha! yes, 1101...as in now.

my point is, one day at a time. 1,300 is very far away, when I look at my charts I don't even see a break of 1130 indicating 1,300 as the next foregone conclusion.

remember what it took to get to the April top?

I've really never seen sentiment line up so bullish like that outside of one other time in 2007.

CV said...

@karen

I keep crunching all this various apparent "indecision" into one conclusion...

It has nothing to do with fundamentals (which are sh*tty), or interventions (which are smoke & mirrors)...

It has everything to do with TIME...

Everyone is just trying to get to the end of the quarter without things totally falling apart...

Hedge Funds are hoping they won't get blown out with redemptions, or blown up by margin calls...

Politicians are hoping that they can sidestep catastrophe...

Central Banks are hoping to avoid funding crises...

Bankers are hoping to lock in early bonuses...

So we'll limp along in no mans land until somebody blinks (or otherwise falls asleep) first...

Paul Krugman said...

"I would like to punch Boehner in the face"

I second that emotion..

the professor said...

hey she has glasses- she must be smart- probably not a smart as this guy however-

http://gloobts.com/site/images/stories/russell_johnson.jpg

CV- great clip

Karen says-

Ahab, your blog posts are very thoughtful!

now that's funny- I wouldn't use thoughtful- interesting at times possibly-

but thoughtful? C'mon man

CV said...

@ahab/professor

SCIENCE!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V83JR2IoI8k&ob=av3n

karen said...

"What I expect now is a pullback to 1080, possibly 1070-1074 on the S&P 500, and then a large rally to roughly 1145. This will encounter some resistance there as it also is a 61.8% Fibonacci pivot of the 2010 highs and the 2010 lows. The pendulum appears to be swinging back to the bulls, and I expect that following the first full week of October we'll be rallying up past 1160 on the S&P 500 and then challenging the 1220 highs of April of this year."

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/bull-market-bear-market-fibonacci-sp500/9/8/2010/id/29978

karen said...

ahab. my definition of thoughtful is occupied with or given to thought; contemplative; meditative; reflective.

McFearless said...

This here was good on Yelnick though, but I probably like this because it's what I'm leaning toward right now:

The form in most of the indices is a Barrier Triangle with a barrier along the top and an upslope from below. The waves count as leg A to the June high, leg B to the July low, leg C to the early Aug high, and leg D to the end-of-August low. We would now be in the final leg E. The implications are interesting:

Timing: Neely finds that most triangles resolve about 25% before the apex. If you trend the upslope from the July1 low through the Aug 27 low, the apex (if at 1130) is about 8 months away (we are going 30 points in 50-60 days depending where you count the leg D low. This seems too far out, and would make leg E whacky in time. Normally a leg E goes no more than D, or less than three weeks. Target: around the equinox on Sep23. (Note to astronomy buffs - the Earth's orbit is not a circle but an ellipse, so while the other three solstice/equinox points happen on the 20th or 21st of the month, the autumnal equinox happens later, on the 22nd or 23rd.)

Distance: A barrier triangle leg E should get back near the barrier, around 1125-1130, but in some indices such as the Naz won't get that far.

Aftermath: the drop after should be at least as far as the widest point, which is leg C in the S&P or 120 pts, targeting a retest of the July lows. If the next wave down goes as far as the Flash Crash, a normal relationship for a zigzag, it should go 175 points, or down around 950. If it extends (a normal relationship for a wave 3 vs wave 1), it would target 850.


Then this is this clarification point to consider the "other side"

Longer Term: A triangle does not occur in a wave 2, but in a B wave or wave 4. This means we would NOT be in the dreaded P3, and after the aftermath should reverse UP. History might count this as a wave B in the Hope Rally, with a wave C to follow to new highs (above 1220).



Link: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/09/fractal-finance-gets-its-big-test-next-week.html#tp

McFearless said...

just being honest here but I don't think the market direction has been this unclear to me since mid 2005, that was the last time I remember being this confused.

fun stuff

McFearless said...

that said, I'm happy I don't have a job where I know what to expect every single day.

boring.

karen said...

hey.. look at spy on 30 min candles over last 10 days.. have it show volume as well.. absolutely fascinating..

McFearless said...

did anyone else catch the always stuttering Fred Mishkin on CNBC this morning.

Man, that guy just kept going on and on about how the Fed was below it's "inflation target"

ROR.

CV said...

@McF

if you apply some of that to moving averages you get the following:

The 200MA right now is around 1116... It has ticked to "sloping down" ever so slightly, but the timeframe of the 200 day average takes you back to about last Thanksgiving (where the indices were - as expected - just about exactly where we are now - KT)...

The thing is, if you draw a horizontal line there, you'd see the FILL SPACE within the 200 days spent more time ABOVE than BELOW (especially during the low volume Christmas rally into January, and the March-April rallies)...

It is logical to assume that the 200 MA will start trending UP soon (marginally so)... And it could continue until the HIGHER prints were no longer a factor (which would not happen for another 110-120 days, or, the FEBRUARY timeframe)...

Unless a BIG correction ensues an occupies a lot of the next 110-120 days in a lower price range...

Just an observation...

Leftback said...

Ireland finally going Good Bank/Bad Bank:

AIB to Be Split in Two

If only we had all adopted Swedish models....

CV said...

@McF

"I'm happy I don't have a job where I know what to expect every single day."

Well - I can say one thing... At least you have a job that you can JUSTIFY spending your time blogging about markets & trading...

You're not getting paid to do something else, and cheating your employers by being off in the blog world (like an SEC worker off in porn land - or something of that nature)...

McFearless said...

fun read/socionomics:

http://futurejacked.blogspot.com/2010/09/why-stock-markets-direction-may-hinge.html

should have figured for a bounce today after the crap volume yesterday on what was basically a 90% down day.

CV said...

The FOMC meeting was August 10th, and August 11th had that huge candle down...

The market is almost to the point that it has regained that candle... Which is also where the 200MA is...

CV said...

BTW -

That bizzare PRINT (on SPX) that I illustrated for all of you yesterday is STILL on my charts...

It's screwing things up...

The only thing it's not on are the DAILYs

the professor said...

re the Greatest Mistake/Lehman post-

the way I see it- the apologists have the idea that all would be well if Lehman was rescued along w/the other banks so all should have continued as before-

my issue is- why continue as before? It's all a big confidence game-

I think many now are questioning whether they should "believe" in the financial markets at all-

trust is a bitch to get back

karen said...

Ben, thanks for that link.. fun read but goofball song : )

GM Picks Its Derivatives Manager

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9fac9eec-babe-11df-b73d-00144feab49a.html

CV said...

@karen

We're basically at the 10 handles level from yesterdays close...

Is TOPSTEP, by chance, saying anything about 1106?

That would be 61.8% of the 8/11/10 candle...

We're also right on the leading diagonal down from the 1220 highs right here...

Leftback said...

10y auction at 1pm and 30y auction ahead tomorrow.

Usually the equity market turns down soon after the auctions. The B/Ds will want to make some money, so that means getting punters to follow them into these long bonds, which is equity negative.

Add this to the technical importance of the delightful KT, and you have a pretty picture for bears.

karen said...

The Bank of Italy has announced that Italian lenders holding European government bonds in their available-for-sale portfolio no longer need to take into account possible capital gains or losses.
“Count Bank of Italy’s decision to allow banks holding European government bonds in AFS portfolios to suspend mark-to-market accounting rules as the latest iteration of unintended consequences,” said Jeffrey Rosenberg, head of global credit strategy research for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “By suspending the rules, inadvertently market uncertainty increases as confidence over the value of the holdings, exposures and hence capitalization erodes.”
Italy’s decision aligns with those of European nations such as France and Germany that have already suspended fair value accounting requirements.

http://www.marktomarketdebate.com/2010/09/08/italy-suspends-mark-to-market-accounting-on-government-bonds/

McFearless said...

Karen,

glad you enjoyed, I don't like katy Perry at all, nor can I stomach her fiance, but she's a pop star, so i pay attention.

karen said...

CV.. topstep isn't saying anything right now and my brain is too foggy to remember what he said yesterday about this level..

McFearless said...

"the apologists have the idea that all would be well if Lehman was rescued along w/the other banks so all should have continued as before"

don't get this at all, but I'll just say, aren't these apologists saying all is well anyway?

so who cares what happened to Lehman, or any other bank, when you "never fight the Fed" it doesnt' matter what they do, they always solve the problem...right?

RIGHT!?

McFearless said...

"my brain is too foggy to remember"

so when Danny said put that in your pipe and smoke it you must have taken that literally....hehe.

Leftback said...

LB started a small short, will probably add later.
His target is a SPX 1070 some time late tomorrow.

The indexes will lead.

Leftback said...

Some of the Squid are heading for the exits:

KKR to Hire GS Prop

CV said...

@professor

They're trying to pour water on a GREASE FIRE...

That doesn't usually work too well... You should know, being a professor and all...

karen said...

No, Ben! too much wine and too little pizza last night.. tho, i'm making up for that now.. I love cold pizza fro breakfast and am begining to feel better.

the professor said...

b22 @11:18

I guess my thought was- that many claim that the failure of Lehman was a cause of the crisis- that if the USG had stepped in and provided financing from the beginning there would have been no crisis-

is anyone else getting that vibe that that is being heavily pitched as the cause and not just a result

karen said...

I don't know about going short here, LB.. Beige Book in a few hours.. dollar dropping.. d*mn thing.

Leftback said...

I am net long, Karen, so I am just hedging here, playing the usual auction moves and anticipating that we stay in the trading range between your delightful top (1103) and your delicate feet (1040), so somewhere closer to your beautiful bottom (1070).

Where are the icons btw...?

karen said...

ahab.. i'm not sure what vibe i'm getting other than annoyance at the idea that LEH was a cause..

here's a new post at TWSTB that looks interesting.. on one of my fav subjects PE! that accounting trick of a yardstick that is supposed to mean something..

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/pe-expansion-contraction/

karen said...

Bank capital rules uncertainty sets up market for an anxious week of waiting
The rest of the week promises more uncertainty for the banking industry as financiers await the announcement of the new capital rules agreed on Tuesday in Switzerland.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/7986849/Bank-capital-rules-uncertainty-sets-up-market-for-an-anxious-week-of-waiting.html

CV said...

@prof

To me it's an "issueless issue" (like the "recoveryless recovery")...

J6P has hardly an idea of who Lehman even was... So going on about that as a cause to J6P would blow about 10 miles over their head...

As for people INSIDE... Anyone smart already knows better... So they're doing one of two things...

- Calling it for what it is (which ben already described)...

- Trying to spin it another way (which is idiotic because, as described before, they might as well be talking "Martian" if the J6P is their audience... And if their "peers" are their audience, they know that they're just stupid lying sacks of sh*t...

karen said...

the chart is interesting because it clearly suggests that PEs are headed lower:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/100-years-PE-Expansion-Contraction.png

Leftback said...

LB likes the concept that Mr Market basically just goes sideways, as we gently stagflate and as we do so P/E grinds its way down from 19 to about 8 over another 5 to 10 years.

This means divvys make money, AAPL... not so much...

karen said...

GS is making me blanch.. 149.66 today!

CV said...

@karen

What's the use of ANY P/E discussion in a "mark to fantasy" accounting environment...

Hell, just doing the adjustments on the banks thenselves would blow any model to smithereens...

And now it's in Europe as well...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/committee-european-banking-supervisors-issues-statement-after-getting-caught-commiting-fraud

Lies, Lies, Lies, Yeah!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-x3TMBeX-ws

the professor said...

CV-

possibly- still get the feeling that "official story" is trying to be re-written-

gotta roll- all have a good day

karen said...

interesting read -

http://www.observer.com/2010/wall-street/mr-bubble-bounces-back

CV said...

"‘I think “dickish” is the wrong word.’"

ROR

karen said...

just saw this! The Muni Bond Crisis Is Officially Here: Harrisburg Drops $3.3 Million in Muni Payments

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/muni-bond-crisis-officially-here-harrisburg-drops-33-million-muni-payments

karen said...

Year-End Consensus S&P 500 Price Target Drops to 1,205

McFearless said...

ahab,

oh yeah, I get the same vibe re: Lehman, and i couldn't disagree with it more, the seeds of the credit bubble were not brought about by Lehman Brothers.

c'mon man!

Prechter gets no credit at all for CTC but that book has been amazingly accurate so far, I read something out of it almost daily and it's still suprising to me how well he forecasted the outcomes....so I agree with his idea of what "caused" all fo this.

McFearless said...

100 years of P/e

um...stop right there, we dont' calculate earnings the same way over that period....sloppy.

McFearless said...

to state that p/e's were "elevated" in 2000 is perhaps the understatement of the century.

CV said...

LOL... "Consensus Price Targets"

CV loved this... "It's bad enough to try to predict where the market will be a year from now, and now they have to go changing them all the time?"...

---

It must be tough in MBA school these days... You have to figure out

- The degree of lies in which P/E ratios are being spun on "mark to fantasy" accounting"

- Who is going to do the next open microphone act on Comedy Central (central banker, POTUS, whoever)...

- Which fund that's going to catch off guard and how that BLOW UP will richochet down thru derivatives...

- Which TRIANGLES that's going to paint on charts...

- How the HFT algos are going to 'front run' those triangles and chop them up into smaller triangles...

I hope that course in business school doesn't come after "lunch"... I'd hate to be asleep in that one!

McFearless said...

"This means divvys make money"

no it does not, at its very best it means some dividend stocks will make money, and you have to pick the one's that will at a time when more stocks than ever before are trending with the overall market....this is the exact same idea presented with the nifty fifty, which was a failure, I would guess it rhymes this time....

also, I love seeing that the consensus price target for the year end S&P has DROPPED to a level some 10% higher than we are now.

ROR.

too many bears, too many bears.....!!!!!

karen said...

Is Obama really that influential??

http://www.pimco.com/Pages/JudgingObama,GeithnerandGoolsbee.aspx

McFearless said...

"The degree of lies in which P/E ratios are being spun on "mark to fantasy" accounting"

We dont' even need to take it this far....why not just start with why we apply P/E just as we did in the past, but this time we do it with; operational earnings.

oh right....defecits don't matter, I mean, why would we bother with say debt service payments on a corporate balance sheet.....

karen said...

ben.. look at KO today.. a dbl on the weekly??

Leftback said...

karen said...

seriously.. better check that KO chart everyone.. cuz either it drops or ...

Leftback said...

Paulson Fund Off 11% This Year

Snicker...

McFearless said...

might be karen, I only looked quick, would need to spend more time on that chart.

I keep watching CAT, above 71...

CV said...

@karen (12:09)

Answer: YES

But not in the way suggested by the article...

It only means that Obama is influential in who gets to attend White House cocktail parties...

Say nice things, or make him appear to be influential, you're INVITE is good...

Say bad things... you can take out the trash...

http://www.frugal-cafe.com/public_html/frugal-blog/frugal-cafe-blogzone/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/dalai-lama-white-house-back-door2-2010.jpg

McFearless said...

I think BA is overpriced as well, if the market is to fall that could be a nice short.

CV said...

"why would we bother with say debt service payments on a corporate balance sheet..."

Well - If you just change your name to the STATE OF ILLINOIS, you don't have to worry about it anymore...

karen said...

okay, ben.. cat and ko are twins!! nearly identical situation and charts..

McFearless said...

it would seem to me that Obama has spent his entire life being influenced by others, rather than being the one doing the influencing.

karen said...

BA.. rolling my eyes.. and started at Outperform today by RBC..

CV said...

@mcF

It would seem to me that Obama is UNDER THE INFLUENCE...

karen said...

must watch video: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/infamous-euroskeptic-nigel-farage-goes-nuts-european-parliament-tells-little-too-much-truth

Leftback said...

Yeah, we probably have enough over-sized airplanes for a decade.

Seriously, you can already start to see rotation out of cyclical trash stocks and into dividend-paying stocks.

Karen, the upcoming muni crash (defaults + creeping higher rates) will take EVERYONE by surprise, present company excepted.

CV said...

I see pictures like this and I wonder how BA manages to sell a single plane...

http://www.michaeljohngrist.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/mojave%20boneyard/mojave%20desert%20boneyard1.jpg

karen said...

oh my.. look at CAGC !! down over 18%

that's my hot money stock!

karen said...

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices declined on Wednesday, pushing long-term yields up, before the government sells $21 billion in 10-year notes, the second major auction of the week.

Yields on 10-year notes (UST10Y), which move inversely to prices, rose 7 basis points to 2.67%. A basis point is 0.01%.

Two-year yields (UST2YR) increased 3 basis points to 0.52%.

Traders tend to sell existing holdings of a security to be auctioned in order to get a lower price to buy the new debt.

Also putting pressure on bonds, U.S. stocks rose and Portugal saw a strong reception to its own bond auction, indicating a reduction in investors' sense of need for the relative security offered by U.S. government debt.

"Europe has shown that it can still tap the capital markets and sell debt and as long as that is possible, investors will take some money out of the 'safe haven' trade, trying to find some yield in the process," said Kevin Giddis, president of fixed-income capital markets at Morgan Keegan.

Leftback said...

K.,

Anyone fancy a crude short here? Supplies still at monumental late summer levels, with seasonals and BUCKY all helping the slide...

karen said...

dto down 5 pts from yesterday.. 75.40.. had to buy some.

Leftback said...

LB is on board with that...

Leftback said...

"Traders tend to sell existing holdings of a security to be auctioned in order to get a lower price to buy the new debt."

Ya think...?

karen said...

uh-oh.. a low volume melt up into the beige book?

karen said...

CV, I see pictures like that and wonder how BA manages to sell a single plane...

I kno right?!

McFearless said...

Karen,

re: BA,

only a handful of times in the last 3 years did S&P ever rank BA as a hold, otherwise, it was a buy buy buy!

karen said...

Corporate Bonds

http://247wallst.com/2010/09/08/corporoate-bond-floodgates-opening-ibm-jnj-dell-hd-agn-axp-atk-aon-hpq-mhs-hsp-hcn-ph-gr-usb-brk-b-fte-cm/

McFearless said...

"It would seem to me that Obama is UNDER THE INFLUENCE"

Well, CV, that may be true, but I show here that GW was drunk every day his first two years so.......

McFearless said...

you know....better than Bush.

McFearless said...

I like the crude short idea, that seems like a good chart set up here. like that call.

karen said...

shopping for divs??
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6663QX20100908

karen said...

"Right now, most dividends are taxed at a maximum rate of 15 percent, the same as long-term gains. But those provisions expire on December 31. After that, dividends would again be taxed like ordinary income -- at rates as high as 39.6 percent -- if there is no new legislation to protect them. Most people expect dividends to retain tax breaks in the new year. The White House has suggested raising the top rate on dividends and capital gains to 20 percent, but nothing about taxes in this deficit-ridden mid-term election year is a sure thing. A sharp increase in taxes on dividends would produce a correspondingly sharp drop in the value of dividend-paying stocks."

McFearless said...

wow, this ZH video is intense.

karen said...

ben.. only problem with crude short is SPX.. it's all one trade.. a melt up means crude melts up, too..

Leftback said...

They will extend the 15% rate on dividends, or raise it to 20%.
Anything else would be madness.

What is really insane about this is that the money used to buy the stocks has ALREADY been taxed once when people earned it. Same deal with savings interest income. They should exempt the first $50 or even 100K of this income.

US tax policy is insane.

karen said...

same with gold : )
and your slv..

all potential short candidates..

McFearless said...

no doubt karen, very true. I suck at trading oil as well, won't do the trade but I like the idea.

karen said...

LB.. you meant US tax policy is effing insane.

Rich CPA said...

If you don't like the tax code then move.

I am qualified to prepare international tax returns if you do move.

Leftback said...

K.,

LB really likes leaning against your top for trades from the short side.

Beige Book is gonna say: The Economy Continues to Suck Arse*...
*Translation available.

karen said...

Yes, Rich, thanks.. I'm thinking of moving to the Caribbean.. Antigua perhaps.. St. Barts.. we'll see. Would prefer one of the islands that's easy to get in and out of.. i'm hurricane shy..

karen said...

EIA Cuts 2011 Oil Demand Forecast
I have stated time and time again that demand for crude in the United States is NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT THAN AT THE MARCH LOWS, yet despite this we have crude at $75, not $35. The only explaination that is valid in my mind is the geopolitical one. Near-term demand forecasts that show large increases in demand are total non-sense.

http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/09/eia-cuts-2011-oil-demand-forecast.html

McFearless said...

people....thoughts on the VIX charts over the last week but especially last several days?

karen said...

this months JNK div down a penny (now .30).. last months JNK div was down a penny from previous month.. Jan div was .36.. last Oct was .39..

is this a trend??

karen said...

GS at 149 and you want me to look at $vix too??!! give me some heroin first.

Leftback said...

10y off at 2.67, just outside the 2.66 yield going in.
BTC 3.21 - a strong auction.

karen said...

Mark4124NH -25% of Exec workforce

Mark4124NH - Lockheed to cut 600 executives

My friend's sister is a VP.. having dinner with her tomorrow.. I know she is planning to take early retirement.. her benefits are 6 figures a year for ever I think.. has worked there for thirty years, maybe..

karen said...

shoot, i was off an hour on my PT to ET conversion for the Beige Book.. told you I was in a fog today.

McFearless said...

I read one good knock on bush today which was something like:

I still think bush is the worst president and I blame him because without him there would have been no Obama.

I agree.

Leftback said...

WS firms to lay off 80,000 in 18 months and bonii to be poor, according to Meredith. This is all jolly good news for the humans that live underground beneath the celestial orbit of New York City banksters.

Leftback said...

Auctions at 1.
Beige Book at 2.

Cocktail at 4, Karen?

Lord Blankfiend said...

SELL em, BITCHEZ....

karen said...

LMT pays a nice div .63/Quarter.. last year was .57/q and the year before was .42

Nothing not to like there.. nearing 65 low from Oct 09, too.

McFearless said...

I would think that'll spell at least a twinge of trouble for Manhattan RE.

McFearless said...

the div is a little light but what about MCD....I'd trust that div a lot more than some of the companies sporting one with 4+ but run very cyclical businesses.

one of two stocks on the Dow that was up in 08 as well.

karen said...

Can we go down now...

McFearless said...

perv.

McFearless said...

what is the obama talk at 2:10 about?

Leftback said...

"Can we go down now..."

Your wish is my command, Karen.
I'd be delighted to go down....

Leftback said...

What a surprise.
Yields on 10y have declined and B/D are ITM !!!

McFearless said...

well, I'd like to see a dip into the 23.80's again before the week is over on UUP, have some limits on some upside calls for 2011 but nothing is taking so far.

karen said...

check MCD daily candle.. if a top isn't in today, i don't know what..

we've just looked at a number of the markets stalwarts today and basically they have no where else to go..

McFearless said...

was this a trifecta top here?

I'm so sick of the effing number 3

3 wave moves in every direction
3 tops
3 bottoms

3 fantasy drafts in one week (this one is ok)

Leftback said...

Feels very very range-bound, doesn't it?

C'mon Mr Market, say GOODBYE to KAREN'S TOP....
You know you really want to see those French panties again.

karen said...

LB, you know I meant that in the voice of a child whining, "Can we go home now.."

McFearless said...

we will break one direction or the other, the VIX chart says as much, we won't stay here, hell if I know which way it's going though, still a spectator.

karen said...

Ben, @ 1:25.. LOL! get ready to hate 4s then..

CV said...

If bush hadn't become president we probably wouldn't have GLOBAL WARMING either...

Here's the logic...

- No Bush would have meant Gore
- Gore (as president), would have meant no "cause" to INVENT after the INTERNET
- "cause" was global warming


So... It's Bush's fault also that we have global warming...

See people? I can be a TV journalist too!

karen said...

mrtopstep

[12:07:32 PM]: Topstep -vs- Topnotch on todays video http://youtu.be/r5yfEXrCp6U

CV said...

We're RIGHT on the leading diagonal from 1220, thru 1129...

So that means either stocks are going to go Up, or they're going to go down...

See people... CV can be a "stock guru" too...

Leftback said...

K.,

LB would be happy to take you home...

McFearless said...

is volume ever coming back????

Leftback said...

LB is about to skip out, headed across the Pond tonight.
Will monitor bonds and so on from London tomorrow.

Bye all..

McFearless said...

have a safe trip man.

CV said...

Have a nice trip

McFearless said...

gee, that top step video helped provide some clarity...


NOT!

CV said...

@McF

Since we're sitting here watching paint dry... Care to guess how CV is handicapping the Raiders vs. Titans?

Note: I'm asking you to guess how "I" am handicapping the game (not you)... BeCuz when I want your opinion, I'll give it you you... lol

CV said...

Andy & Amen can already see my picks (because they're authors on the blog - and can see the drafts for future posts)...

No cheating Amen!

McFearless said...

that guy Tim is G$$$$$

CV said...

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks Titans (1:00 EST)

Line: Flaming Thumbtacks by 6.5

I may be the dumbest guy on the planet... In my first two Fantasy Football drafts, I ended up with the #1 and #2 pick respectively... That means BOTH times I had the opportunity to take Chris Johnson (who may end up with over 2,500 yards in combined offense)... Both times I passed, and instead REACHED for Aaron Rogers...

The problem with a #1 or #2 pick (in Fantasy Football) is that in a snake draft format, your next pick isn't going to come until #21 & #22 (or later if it's a 12 team league)... So sometimes you have to reach for YOUR GUY early if you think he may not be around later (and in the process, IGNORE all the insults being hurled at you by the other "drafters" who think drafts ought to go by chalk rankings)...

By "bet" this season is simply that Aaron Rogers will end up being the highest point scorer in fantasy football this season... That's not hard to assume when you understand that a QB has the ball in his hands on every single offensive snap...

Offenses that rely heavy on one particular player (like the Titans do with Chris Johnson), end up being "game planned" against... It's a way of other teams to make you beat them with your WEAKER stuff (instead of your main weapon)... Last year, Adrian Peterson, carried that mantle for the Vikings... Teams focused on shutting him down, and AP, although he had impressive numbers, didn't quite duplicate the output from his previous season...

I remember the beginning of last season when everyone was talking about Chris Johnson & LenDale White as being virtually inseparable (in anticipating scoring output)... By the end of the year, LenDale White ate himself out of the league, and has now bounced through 2 teams, and is out for the season...

What this all has to do with the Raiders, is that they (as well as other teams) will likely try to make the Titans ONE DIMENSIONAL on offense... I seriously doubt that Nnamdi Asomugha is too terrified of Vince Young's passing arm and weapons... Vince Young will likely end up having to be creative here to move the chains...

Unfortunately, Oakland won't have much to rely on to move the chains either... Michael Bush broke his thumb in the pre-season (and he could have given Tennessee's undersized defensive line some problems). Darren McFadden will get the start, maybe catch some passes, and go down on first contact as usual... I can't see Jason Campbell having a big game against a healthy Cortland Finnegan...

The problem here, mostly, is with the line... The Titans are favored by 6.5 at home, yet the Raiders have proven to be a decent team to bet on when in these situations... Conversely, they suck as favorites... In a game that's almost a touchdown differential, and, that figures to either have a lot of punts, or consume a lot of game clock, it's tough to manage that kind of separation... It could be one of those games that, if you're siding with the Titans, and giving up the 6.5, you're in the 4th quarter with a 5 or 6 point lead, and BEGGING for the defense to come up with a "pick six" off of Jason Campbell on a last drive to cover your ass and keep your bookie at bay... I'll take the RAIDERS for (1 unit)

karen said...

I loved that video.. and I wouldn't even know about those fellows if it weren't for NIC!

McFearless said...

C,

I'm going to guess you are taking the Raiders but I'm not sure that's a game you'd actually put any units on?

I haven't looked at the spread on that game though. I'll probably bet a few games this year at DelPark.

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/8/restaurant-stocks-shoot-higher.html

McFearless said...

didn't read the bespoke but one fairly impressive chart through all this is DRI.

i haven't been to a Red Lobster in ages, always liked the biscuits there....

CV said...

Del Park has sports betting?

I bet it's only parlays and stuff... No individual games, right?

karen said...

MCD is nearly 70% institutionally owned!

JCG is now only .01% institutionally owned!! now that was a successful distribution : )

CV said...

"Cheddar Bay Biscuits" (to be exact)...

That's actually CV's "nickname" with the guys that I play golf with...

Mr Market said...

I am going down for you, Karen.

McFearless said...

you can only bet football and as far as I know, yes, no individual games, those are for the big mean guys in downtown Wilmington, lol.

They are supposedly getting other sports "in the future"

right now though it's still all about horses over there.

I went to mess around with roulette a little bit a few weeks ago but $25 minimum bet and they don't serve drinks after 1 am and I walked right out, they still seem to be getting the hang of it.

If anyone is into golf though, and you are in DE, play the track there, called White Clay, very nice, very challenging.

Might play some cards there this fall, we'll see, it's all no-limit hold-em right now, not a lot of other options.

CV said...

@McF

"what is the obama talk at 2:10 about?"

I'm guessing that it's to announce that the Heisman Trophy that they're taking back from REGGIE Bush, is now going to go to Obama...

CV said...

you see THAT was Bush's fault too...

karen said...

a PIMCO barrage:

El-Erian:The Administration must communicate a credible, clear medium-term economic vision that is strategic in nature & unifying in design.

PIMCO
El-Erian: Markets are watching the Administration’s announcements today; they will likely impact equity & bond valuations around the world.
2 minutes ago via web

PIMCO
El-Erian: With the November elections looming, the Administration must hit a home run in economic policy initiatives. http://bit.ly/crqCNd

McFearless said...

bwahahaha, he probably should get the heisman, it can go on the mantle next to the Nobel Peace Prize

CV said...

I can just imagine the world "teetering on the edge", when it comes to the idea of Obama making an economic policy decision...

Truly "nail biting" time... rolls eyes

karen said...

funny!

http://www.theonion.com/articles/84-million-new-yorkers-suddenly-realize-new-york-c,18003/

McFearless said...

what was the order of those comments by El-Erian? all I go back to there, they have to hit a "home run"

yeah, good luck with that

rmao

karen said...

When I post the tweets like that the bottom is first.. the top last.. sorry.. for not making that clear.. i'm just doing a copy and paste.. new tweets are refresh on top.. the opposite of this thread..

CV said...

Speaking of "teetering"... The SPX is "teetering" against the leading diagonal (from 1220), &, the high waves of the RSI associated...

NEW CHART IN THREAD ABOVE

Hardly the "nail biter" that's gonna end the world... But I'd think stocks might need some GIDDYUP here... The longer they fail to break thru, the more likely we go down and bounce around downstairs for awhile...

karen said...

Nice, CV! a perfect KISS.

McFearless said...

doesn't anyone else find it funny that the Co-CEO of PIMCO tweets?

or is that just me

McFearless said...

this latest job growth plan smacks of desperation

karen said...

mrtopstep

RT @Eubiquitous Mr. TopStep Intra~day charts 09/08 http://bit.ly/cI0IJM also, brace yourself Obama up soon
less than 10 seconds ago via TweetDeck

McFearless said...

bracing for the all powerful Obamapromter

pay no attention to the words coming out of his mouth...feel some hope already!

McFearless said...

@Nic,

if you are out there, forward thoughts on the market based on the formation in EURUSD?

karen said...

themosmitsos

God I'd rather clean my ears out w/a powerdrill than have2 listen 2Obama preach stupidity. At least Bush was good 4a gaffe & a laugh

karen said...

ben.. have you done a fxe:uup chart.. do a three year weekly

karen said...

fxe:fxy is a beauty, too..

McFearless said...

Karen,

I have not, I'll check it out.

karen said...

fxa:fxy.. there are patterns there !!

karen said...

i have a crush on Tim.

McFearless said...

so do I.

CV said...

yikes

karen said...

ignore what i said on jcg institutional holdings for now.. maybe the e*trade info is wrong..

karen said...

mrtopstep

RT @Chicagostock $CL_F Crude Oil 1 month price action http://twitpic.com/2mh96v

McFearless said...

lol, so the common man says i spent more when gas prices went up, but i didn't actually DO anymore, this is how the Fed's describe these activities:

The good news is that "Consumer spending appeared to increase on balance despite continued consumer caution that limited nonessential purchases."

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 262   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.