Sunday Evening Post & Morning Audibles

Good Evening Capitalists,

Ahhh, can you feel it?

One can almost feel the first inkling of the seasonal change from Summer to Autumn. The morning weather here (Houston) is now bearable--"bearable" in the sense that one can walk his dog in the morning without becoming a sweaty and pissed off person. More importantly, though, America's most popular sport is officially back on the television--our modern era Gladiators have taken to the Coliseums--the masses will be appeased for awhile. I must admit that Autumn is my favorite season (Football, Thanksgiving, Halloween, nice weather, etc...) so the current whiff of change brings a smile to my face.

With that in mind, I took a more 'reflective' tone in tonight's posting. I went "deep" as it were....

Presented here are some very longer term wave models as well as a more "actionable" update. The Dollar "took the hit" as far as my attention was concerned in that the DXY only received a one page update--though, there should be enough in that one page to create a trading strategy for the next week.

Hope everyone had a good three day weekend.

Best, Andy







218 comments:

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Andy T said...

Apol's in advance for taking down the post and resubmitting the Scribd files. I realized I had made a pretty significant math error on the first go....

mcHAPPY said...

Hi Andy,

Thanks so much for this work. It is incredible the detail and thought that goes in.

My curiosity of Neo-wave has been piqued this week following your chart about don't trust the count of this as an impulse. I will most definitely be reading Neely's book in the (hopefully) not too distant future.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out - and the outcome may speed my acquisition of Neely's book.

Thanks again.

Andy T said...

mcHappy...

Well...the bad news is that we might all be dead by the time we find out how it all plays out....but the next few years will give some good clues as to who was steering down a better track.

McFearless said...

andy,

thanks very much for all this work, great stuff here, also really enjoyed the bigger picture Neely stuff. I'm looking to re-establish a dollar position in the near term, while the bigger picture view on equities remains bearish I'm not too confident in any particular count in the very near term, maybe we get another larger rally here, not sure, so I prefer the dollar trade to that.

thanks again man, I agree this time of year is the best.

Andy T said...

Well...something is making the DXY move tonight....

CV said...

Thx a lot Andy...

I've been involved herding cats the past few days (which means organizing FF drafts)...

Finally we can settle back to markets starting tomorrow...

I plan on "going to cash" in 2150...

karen said...

Andy.. we have a "few" years left?

CV, if you need a cat (or dog) whisperer... i do birds, too.

Still dealing with outside chores and green waste bin--which gets picked up tomorrow.. I'll dig into those charts in an hour.. I'm quite pliable at the moment, being in 'whatever' mode..

karen said...

I cannot believe this oddity.. post my post.. my son emails me this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwM6f0liHpo

Andy T said...

cv@9:29: bwaahahahahha

@karen: Yes...just a few years until 2012...i think that's going to be a good year for stocks....

After that....

well....

you know the drill....

karen said...

Running outside now to finish up.. so sorry I'm not into american football so I could give you all a piece of my mind on every game : ) and every player : )

karen said...

a couple is two.. a few is 3 or 4!! it is 2010. that was my point, laughing. okay I'm gone.. sun sets in 23 min or so..

M E Hoffer said...

AT<

nice charts~ needless to say, I tend to agree..

those 'longer term' charts, based on Neely...~"we need to flush the BBoomers b4 there's a 'constructive case'"...are provocative.

tends to square with what I've long thought..
~~

also, same, on the shorter term SPX charts, seems Up 'is the new black', for the time being..

karen said...

Another good NLY post: http://annaly.com/blog/2010/08/31/FollowingTheRealMoney.aspx

Asset bubbles and leverage are kindred spirits. Just look at housing, tech stocks, and tulip bulbs. But if this is a necessary bubble condition, bonds don’t make the cut. Thanks to data provided by AMG and the Fed, we know there has been real, unleveraged buying behind the bond rally.

McFearless said...

Boise State, wow. that's a nice start to the season.

Andy T said...

Mark Hoffer...in the house.

Thanks for that....

Yeah, it's weird to come up with wave counts that basically suggest:

"Mom and Dad: You're screwing the whole country right now. It was 'all good' for a while, but you need to go quietly now."

Thanks for reading the work.....

Boise State....been a fan for a long, long time....

Been watching them since they were "equals" with Fresno State in the WAC....

Equals no longer...

Though, the game with Fresno St. in November will likely be their "rubicon."

Andy T said...

Just in case....

"Rubicon"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
n.
A limit that when passed or exceeded permits of no return and typically results in irrevocable commitment.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Anonymous said...

Andy,

Thanks for the all the charts that you put up.
A bigger thanks for being this generous and sharing what you know.

Prashant

mcHAPPY said...

I slept a little on this and I'm just throwing it out there.

I'm still not giving up on this as an impusive move down - yet - although it is getting close.

Here are a few reasons why:

1) You can make the chart fit 5-3-5-3-5 'by the rules' but (to me) it also fits in with a 3-3-3-3-3 for a leading diagonal that ended with an extended fifth wave. Diagonals are hybrids of motives and impulses - hence the confusion.

2) They are followed by large retraacements i.e. .786 which would be 1110.

3) It is rare, but C waves do often have 2.618 lengths of wave A. A = 1039.83-1065.21 for 25.38 x 2.618 is 66.44 for a target of 1106.14 off 1039.7 (B wave?).

4) 1 shorter than 3 shorter than 5, expanding lines off 1 and 3 with 2 and 4.

5) A leading diagonal to kick off a minor 3 would be quite fitting.

I do like the leading diagonal count better the more I think of it - especially with the correction that has unfolded.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aCa4iKYHesng

Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Households and companies will continue to reduce debt built up before the financial crisis, according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements.

A study of 20 systemic banking crises that were preceded by surges in credit showed that in 17 cases, debt relative to gross domestic product returned to levels seen before the crisis, economists Garry Tang and Christian Upper wrote in the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS’s latest quarterly review.

“If history is any guide, we should expect to see a much more significant reduction in private-sector debt, particularly of households, than has so far taken place after the recent crisis,” they wrote. “Lower house prices may induce households to reduce their desired level of debt. Similarly, a lower level of output and tighter financial conditions could put firms under pressure to reduce their leverage.”

Andy T said...

mcHappy: It's 'possible' that it's a leading diagonal lower to start the move. The issue tho' is that a LD impulse could also be an A-Wave, right?

McFearless said...

I can see the LD but those are rare counts, I still favor the larger structure being corrective as I pitched aside P3 months ago but I'm not confident enough in any count to do anything more than small positions.

dollar....look at that action.

CV said...

Stocks, U.S. Futures Fall, Bonds Rally on Europe Debt Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-02/asian-stocks-won-climb-on-imf-forecast-u-s-manufacturing-copper-gains.html

Oh - Debt wasn't a concern during all of August because we were all on vacation, but now that we have out asses back in our chairs for the one day of work we do per week... we're back in crisis mode...

This is why I hate August (especially the week before Labor Day)...

CV said...

Of course, Barry O is doing the same thing...

Back from vacation(s), and yakking about how how he's going to spend another $50 billion fixing roads (probably the roads that go between voters houses in "unionized labor districts" no doubt)...

Didn't this already FAIL in January '09...

Nice stick save Barry...

And the beat goes on... Nice to know that nothing has changed over the long holiday weekend folks...

karen said...

morning! glad I am up.. despite the lack of economic news today looks set to reverse last week's lemming run.. i'm seeing euro, aussie selling; dollar, yen buying.

"Japan’s and Australia’s central banks signaled that the outlook for U.S. growth is deteriorating, making it tougher for them to set monetary policy."

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ax98RGimZWoM

karen said...

copper is making a decent move today.. crude oil, an even better one.

karen said...

“I’m interested in finding investments that aren’t just simply going to float up and down with the market,” he said. “The incredible correlation that we’re experiencing -- we’ve been experiencing for a number of years -- is problematic.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayR3PjEbMErM

karen said...

"While the likes of Zerohedge and Business Insider have now bludgeoned the general public into utter stupefaction and boredom with the various treasuries/gold bubble or not arguments, TMM are of the opinion that the most overstretched trades lie elsewhere. Take, for example, all things Southeast Asia. As you can see below their equities have had quite a run to say the least, but not without some choppiness over the summer. Foreign fund flows have been strong - look at the cash going into the IDX and EWM ETFs." http://macro-man.blogspot.com/

karen said...

a novel idea: "Let the housing market crash."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/business/economy/06housing.html?_r=1

CV said...

"U.S. growth" (8:29)

Novel concept... What has "grown" in the US for the past 30 years but DEBT?

mcHAPPY said...

@Andy 7:39

Yes. I should have mentioned that.

CV said...

Anybody else have a mysterious print on the S&P cash that conveniently hit on the 78.6 retrace from 666 back to 1576???

Testing the FLASH CRASH response I suppose...

karen said...

Tuesday, September 7th, 2010, 8:08 am
For the first time since 1992, bank deposit balances fell in the first half of the year.

Deposits decreased 0.4% for the six months between January and June to $7.69 billion from nearly $7.7 billion, and the yields on the deposits fell to less than 1%, according to analysis from Market Rates Insight.

"Even inelasticity has its limits" said Dan Geller executive vice president at the California-based research firm. "For nearly two decades, deposit balances as a whole were very inelastic, and kept on growing despite substantial fluctuation in the average rate paid on deposits. It looks like in 2010 the inelasticity reached it limit."

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/07/bank-deposit-balances-shrink-for-first-time-since-92

karen said...

was it something I said ? i wonder..

CV.. my $spx looks fine.. no misprints..

McFearless said...

C,

I don't have that on mine.

All,

probably won't be around much next few days, busy time of year here, playing some catch from last week as well. I'll be around here and there though.

g. luck.

karen said...

well, cv, we can talk spy if you want.. needs to fill the fri opening gap up.. perhaps even lower? 109 looks promising.

call me ahab said...

CV-

sent you a return email. No doubt. Also-

Ryan Matthews?

C'mon man!

McFearless said...

hey, check out this e-mail I got while I was out of town, our favorite tan man:

Joe Terranova is keeping his eye on the ball as September begins.
In Every Pitch Counts Now, Joe reviews several key economic indicators and identifies what you should be looking for through the remainder of 2010.
The September edition of Virtus' monthly calendar focuses on indicators and market events in the coming month. Visit Virtus.com at the start of each month for an updated calendar and subscribe to the RSS Feed for Joe's most recent comments on his blog.
For ideas to help position clients in an unpredictable market, please contact us at 1-800-243-4361 or visit Virtus.com.
Regards,
Virtus Investment Partners
Virtus.Marketing@Virtus.Com

800.243.4361
www.Virtus.com

CV said...

I'm going to paste fotos of the print I was talking about in the thread...

Sorry - I'm also raking leaves this morning :-)

McFearless said...

I'm feeling pretty good about the draft last night, one more tonight and another tomorrow night. I can't think of something better to do three nights in a row.

karen said...

I nice pictorial at http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-1100-price-level-in-the-sp500/

call me ahab said...

b22-

yeah- I got a few players I was interested in. I'm going to take some time reviewing everyone's team in the next day or two

karen said...

Probably not news to you fellows: The Heisman Trophy Trust is expected to strip former University of Southern California star running back Reggie Bush of college football’s top honor by the end of September, sources told Yahoo! Sports.

CV said...

New charts in thread

These were the prints on the S&P cash that I still have on my screen... Happened this morning...

Interesting that the candle stretches to the mark of the 78.6% retrace from the 666 low back to 1576...

Just curious... (and strange)...

CV said...

@karen

Re: Bush

Yeah, but can he keep the Kardashian?

McFearless said...

ahab,

yeah, sort of in the same boat, I made one awful pick, still not sure what the hell I was doing on that one, too busy preparing for the other two drafts I still have before I've looked over all the teams. Seemed a lot of people wasted an early pick on a QB in our league.

CV said...

@McF

Wasted QB pick...

Not exactly... In the points structure, there are structured bonuses that go out to QB's that exceed 250, 300, and 400 yards...

There are only a few QB's in the league that are capable of putting up those kinds of numbers several times per year...

In the end, I'm hoping it'll balance out the rushing yards & TD vultures...

call me ahab said...

b22-

as I was telling CV in my email- kind of glad I had a late pick- wanted to pick Ryan Matthews anyway and was hoping for a quick round two to pick up Andre Johnson (didn't get it though)

got Vernon Davis- and Schaub I picked up in the 4th round- he was my intended pick-

I really like Houston this year- was even looking at Ben Tate until he got injured

CV said...

There are bonuses for 100+ rushing performances too... But those are fewer and farther in between...

If you look at the season as a whole, many backs who pile up big yards tend to do so in chunks...

Adrian Peterson hardly did anything for the last 6 games last season...

CV said...

Anybody whose QB goes down with an injury is going to really be hurting...

That's why I took Flacco (who is a starter on most teams, as a backup)...

CV said...

@karen

Did you see that PRINT on SPX that I posted?

McFearless said...

new tax breaks getting announced soon?

Better than Bush?

That's the new "killing-it"

karen said...

i did! but i don't know what it means or what caused it..

call me ahab said...

I picked up Stafford as my back up. I am thinking Detroit is looking better all the time

McFearless said...

CV,

we'll see, I don't recall QB's having much of an impact on the league last year outside of Brees, RB's and WR's are the key...but that was last year. I'm happy with Rivers, wanted more RB's and WR's on my squad, I figure if Rivers gets hurt I can make do with Sanchez or trade.

We'll see if Matt Forte can offer an upside surprise, that line is suspect, but he's looked a lot better lately.

CV said...

I read an article the other say that polled Ohio voters whereby something like 55%-45%, if given the choice now, would go back to Bush for the last two years instead of 2 more years with Obama...

Ouch!

CV said...

The "points" structure is a little juicier this year with QB's...

McFearless said...

From DR today:

"In sum, the most realistic assessment of the new announced fiscal packages is front and center on page 1 of today’s FT (Obama in $50bn Plan to Boost Jobs):
“But the president’s plan is almost certain to fail to win Congressional approval, with many Democrats unwilling to support new spending and Republicans loath to give the administration legislative victories before the November 2 vote.
The economy is chief among voters’ concerns and, while they criticize Mr. Obama for failing to focus sufficiently on jobs, polls show voters also balk at extra spending that resembles a second stimulus package.”


Also, EWFF had great points again about sentiment in the latest, I really believe many people are going to get burned misreading short term sentiment surveys....time will tell though.

CV said...

@ben

Think of it this way...

If you have a QB who THROWS for 35 TD's... Times 4 points = 140 (plus the yards, plus the bonus)...

Anyway... Strictly off TD points, you'd need a back who scored 23 TD's... That's like LT in one of his better years...

Even AP or Chris Johnson would have GOOD years if they scored over 20 TD's...

McFearless said...

ahab,

I like Houston as well this year, but the whole AFC is stacked again so it's hard to say what their record is going to be, they def. have a lot of talent on that team.

call me ahab said...

b22 @ 10:38

I wonder if that would have anything to do w/ this headline-

"Democrats Face Grim Election Prospects as Support Wanes"

a scramble to shore up votes

CV said...

But then if you drop down to a sucky QB that tosses 22 TD's (but 14 picks)... Then you net out to 88 (minus 28 for picks) = 60...

That's like 10 rushing TD's...

McFearless said...

CV,

Sort of, but that's like talking about cash without talking about credit, gotta factor in the negative points from turnovers. Less chances for turnovers in general from a top WR vs. a QB, but yes, I get your point. I think Rivers will get stats either way, I figured I had better still try to get a top guy when I could, even if he isn't a top 4 QB.

I like my running backs, I feel like I'm 4 deep there going into the season.

that said, I came really close to taking Peyton last night early, just decided against it.

call me ahab said...

but- personally- I don't think the GOP is all that either-

but what's your choices?

McFearless said...

ahab,
I'm sure that's exactly what it has to do with, but if the market keeps going down then so will the politico approval ratings...no matter what "they say", there is a very strong correlation.

McFearless said...

"but what's your choices?"

Objectively I'll be voting for those I like the least this year, iow, someone I really don't approve of at all. I expect the market and the economy to be a damn disaster the next few years, I want to make sure I try to get right the people in office for when the blame game begins.....I feel like this is my smartest path.

sound crazy?

give me a better solution then....

CV said...

@ahab

If the GOP wins seats (or even a majority)...

The only thing that will happen is that it'll tie up ANY legislative proposal...

They'll propose things (that will get vetoed)... Obama will propose things (that never pass)...

Impasse city...

Good news is... More rounds of golf & vacations for Obama...

Oh... & let's not forget the never ending "corruption" indictments & hearings...

Yawn...

CV said...

For me... the only thing I'd LIKE to see would be for the Healthcare bill to get repealed...

McFearless said...

and speaking of football, PSU @ BAMA next weekend. It's pretty much make or break for my boys right there. Freshman QB looked good last week but I'm so nervous that there are still three guys in the mix each week and nobody knows the real starter. Reminds me of the Zach Mills days....

McFearless said...

this weekend, I mean....

call me ahab said...

CV-

I think the biggest question mark is the Bears-

that will be interesting to watch play out-

being an old Bears fan- I hoping for the best-

(still strikes me as odd that Lovie kept his job- I wonder if he'll be calling any plays- Jim Zorn?)

CV said...

@McF

Your boys are going to get slaughtered down there sorry to say...

CV said...

Bears will lose to the Lions this week...

It'll be a BAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHD start says sheep boy

CV said...

@karen

What do you think of the bucky bounce today?

One day, or is it starting its next wave up?

McFearless said...

CV,

You and everybody else have already told me that, if we start like we did this past week that's how it's going to play out too.

McFearless said...

I'm just not sure we have the talent...but I'll go down with my squad til' the bitter end.

McFearless said...

re: sentiment,

examples, which I'll provide all week, this from DR today:

"In fact, there really is very little in the way of real capitulation despite what a couple of surveys say. Barron’s this week is a classic case in point — the feature interview is titled It’s Not Time to Abandon Stocks (at true lows, you actually read the opposite) on page 36 and Barron’s forecasting roundtable (page 23 — Hoping for the Best — again, the title just about says it all). Not one of the 10 prognosticators is calling for a down equity market by year-end, and the average for the S&P 500 is 1,184 (the median is 1,160)."

call me ahab said...

b22 @ 10:52-

interesting take

CV says-

For me... the only thing I'd LIKE to see would be for the Healthcare bill to get repealed...

yeah- that whole thing was a mess (doesn't solve anything- makes it more expensive) and how they passed it was a show.

I wonder how they pull that off

call me ahab said...

gotta roll

CV said...

@McF

The main thing I read over the weekend is how much hedge funds, prop desks, etc. are all behind the 8 ball going into the end of the quarter...

How there's "artificial incentive" to prop the thing up...

It's hard to stand here, having watched the last few trading days (and the move off of 1040), and then have a long weekend, to NOT believe the theory...

Actually, I DO believe the theory... (I mean, tell me a prop desk or fund that DOESN'T want higher markets, ever)...

But I have a hard time buying into the idea that if that's what they all want, then that's what they'll get...

karen said...

mrtopstep

#futures right now 30ish locals in the pit NO FLOW at all here NOT everyone back yet
less than 20 seconds ago via TweetDeck
Reply Retweet

mrtopstep
#futures We put out 1090 to 1093 as support so far the low in the SPU is 1092.00 total big SPU volume is only 4.5k with 850k minis
1 minute ago via TweetDeck

mrtopstep
good morning we are now in the roll over so we wont be Tweeting as much this Thursday DEC goes front month

CV said...

@karen

re: dollar

One thing I'm looking at is if the dollar does a DEATH CROSS of its own...

Friday it bounced off the 200MA and is still pinned under the 50... If it rallies here, it might start pulling that 50MA back up and avoid the death cross...

That ought to be bullish in many minds...

karen said...

CV.. on UUP, it it can regain 24.10, it'll be back in up mode, imo..

24.20 would be a bullish breakout.. : )

karen said...

meant to post this: Six of Ten Largest Mutual Funds Currently Sport 0.99 Correlation with S&P 500

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/six-of-ten-largest-mutual-funds.html

karen said...

also of interest: Home Equity Lines of Credit, the Next Looming Disaster?

"Aided by the seemingly limitless desire of banks to lend money, homeowners opened an incredible number of HELOCs during the bubble years of 2004-2006.

Nowhere was the madness of HELOC borrowing more astounding than in California. During the two key years of 2004 and 2005, a total of 1.43 million HELOCs were originated in California just for the purchase of homes according to figures received from CoreLogic."

http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/housing-bubble-home-equity-lines-of-credit-heloc-second-mortage-lien-holders-home-foreclosures-bank-failures-the-new-york-times-keith-jurow-3122.php

McFearless said...

CV,

A couple points on that:

1. I thought several of the prop desks were starting to get unwound, so they wont' be as relevant moving forward.

2. EWFF discusses hedge funds specifically in the recent update and made what I thought were good points, here are the bullets:

a: HFRX global hedge fund Index showed the average hedge fund lost 26.3% from July 07-Dec 08, I would guess that average is skewed by the handful that had huge up years, point is we could have argued for a rally during the duration of the sell-off from 07-09 because hedge funds were "behind the ball". This year HFRX shows a decline of 2.45% since the April high vs, what was a 10.5% decline for the S&P at the time it was written, so you hear the same argument as we did then.

b: EWI draws a parallel between hedge funds and their positions and the "nifty 50" from the early 70's since according to ZH "little by little most hedge funds are now moving to the 100 or so stocks that account for 50% of the market volume" this is a scary development on a number of different levels.

We've seen this idea presented a lot lately haven't we...., get stocks with dividends, multi-nationals, they rarely ever really go down, you'll get your dividend....on and on...review the Nifty 50 strategy in the early 70's, it's very similar to the sentiment expressed today about blue chips that pay a div and that ended up being a disastor of a call.

CV said...

TOPSTEP (traders not back from holidays)...

LOL

DOES ANYBODY FRIGGIN' WORK ANYMORE?

All summer... No volume, no trading, POTUS on vacation... CB'ers in Wyoming...

Jeez - it's after Labor Day and STILL nobody is working...

By Friday they won't be working because it's Rosh Hashanah... Yom Kippur...

effin Columbus Day...

get to work people and sell some stocks!

CV said...

@McF

Yes... That's the type of trading (or equity shifting) that triggers Hindenburg Omens...

karen said...

mrtopstep

$ED_F #options CCM sold 20k E0Z 88 puts at 6

karen said...

this day is torture..

McFearless said...

I believe Nenner is now calling for a bump into September before his huge move down, where he still sticks to DOW 5k, someone at Dan's posted that the spiral calendar turn date is 9/12, Phi-Mate is on 9/11, with the fibo work I was going I pegged last top +/- 2 days from 8/12, I had 9/12 as next turn date so it matches some other stuff.

karen said...

as long as the bump into september was the one we just experienced last week.. : ) can't we just trickle down now.. starting today?

CV said...

I kno right?

CV said...

So many I've been reading (not Nenner)...

Have this thing SIDEWAYS for the better part of 2 months...

That viewpoint seems to be becoming the consensus... I'll probably die of boredom if it happens that way...

karen said...

Boredom, or worse, being wrong... !!

I kno right? my new favorite expression.. been saying it (to myself) all weekend !!

CV said...

The fact is... NOTHING makes any sense in aggregate...

- The economy is stalled so we need stimulus (so they say)...
- Nobody WANTS stimulus (save for the politicians, only to say that they're doing something)
- The central bankers, DENY everything and actually say they're hopeful for modest growth
- Yet they are poised to pull out unprecedented and never ending QE2... After August 10th, the bottom line is... The easing we provide will NEVER be withdrawn...
- The market can't react to it...
- It can't go up because it's not positive in a REAL sense
- It won't go down because everything gets monetized, and supported at every sign of trouble...

Somebody get me a noose so I can hang myself...

McFearless said...

re: election rally,

as discussed last week there will certainly be a lot of chatter around politicians "pushing the market up" for the elections.

was reminded when reading the FF that the September/October period in the second year of the four year presidential cycle tend to be bearish on top of normally being seasonally weak. Point is, these are fun to listen to, but they are such a mixed bag it's gambling to put money on them.

also re: sentiment.

how is it that so many worry so much about a bearish aaii (which btw is in line with what a bear market looks like) but will not acknowledge the record issuance of junk bonds?

sentiment remains mixed at best, you'd be stretching to call it too bullish OR bearish here.

CV said...

I swear... The thing that I really think I want to buy are PM's, but it seems THOSE are heavy (in price) as well...

They're stuck and won't go down... SLV at another high today...

karen said...

cute tees for math wizards:

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/09/back-to-match-fanatics.html

CV said...

@McF

I'm not "bullish" or "bearish"...

I'm "bored-ish"

karen said...

CV.. just stare at your tilapia tank.. or put your head in it, laughing..

McFearless said...

bored?

wait till thursday, that'll change.

CV said...

I'm switching to pirhannas

karen said...

yeah.. i blew it on gold.. from now on, let me be the ultimate contrarian indicator.. if i ever go short again, just go long and don't look back : )

karen said...

I'm getting ill..

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/07/stage-set-for-short-refinancing-program-starting-today

CV said...

I'm not worried about it (gold) because I haven't sold an ounce of the physical since I bought it in '04...

But it's getting weirder & weirder that the price just won't go down...

karen said...

eye popping!!
Russell 3000 Stocks Which Have Returned 100%+ in 2010
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/russell-3000-stocks-which-have-returned.html

karen said...

Stiglitz thinks money grows on trees, i guess..

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- European governments made a “wrong bet” by pushing for austerity after the global recession, resulting in slower economic growth for the region and the U.S., Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.

“Europe has made a wrong bet with austerity,” Stiglitz, 67, told reporters today in Budapest. If Germany, the U.K. and France remain committed to budget cutting, “that will have systemic consequences for the entire Europe.”

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKQ.X9YAxId4

karen said...

LOL!! "The disparity in the numbers could either mean the market is due for a correction or the recent stock rally will keep going, analysts say."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39037896

CV said...

@karen

A few weeks ago I was making an argument about the keynesian nature of those comments by stiglitz...

I was duly reprimanded for doing such...

CV said...

(12:25)

That statement wins the C'MON MAN of the week award...

karen said...

mrtopstep

@mrtopstep # futures DEAD HERE 20 locals in the pit NY lunch time no flow at ALL

AmenRa said...

I figured the bears would have pushed the market even lower by now. AUDJPY is off its low, TRIN hasn't broken 1000 in either direction, BKX & XLF getting slaughtered, CHF & JPY higher (CB's in pain over there). Seems like traders are still trying to get their bearings after coming back from vacation.

CV said...

@Amen

Seems like the traders are still ON vacation...

CV said...

Or everyone is bust with their fantasy football drafts...

CV said...

busy

CV said...

Tiger Woods got selected as a captains pick to go to Ryder Cup...

OweBama said...

We need more bailouts.... I mean stimulus...
.... I mean infrastructure spending.

karen said...

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/09/michael-lewis-talks-about-the-banks-that-brought-down-greece.html

McFearless said...

not sure how I feel about him on Ryder cup....he has been very inconsistent to say the least.

CV said...

The stimulus package should go to creating jobs for:

- flight attendants
- dog walkers & trainers
- caterers
- hotel bellhops
- limo drivers
- caddies
- greenskeepers
- associate ass kickers

and all the other INFRASTRUCTURE Owebama needs for all his personal vacations & expiditions...

CV said...

expeditions

associate ass-kicker said...

My pension plan is underfunded.

Anonymous said...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100828/ap_on_re_us/us_obama_vacation

At 10 days, it will bring to 48 the number of vacation days Obama has taken since taking office. Former President George W. Bush had spent more than twice as much time on vacation at this point in his presidency.

CV said...

@Anon

The last time I checked my calendar, the year said 2010...

George W. Bush is no longer President...

Neither is George Washington, who, for all I know, spent all his waking hours on vacation...

The point is... With the economy hurting, and Americans hurting, it does not help very much to have the headlines splashed every single week with how many rounds of golf Obama played, or which beach he happens to be visiting...

It pisses people off...

Hell, people were more pissed off at Bush for what he did while he was WORKING... They should be happy to know he was on vacation...

If he was on vacation all the time, how could all these problems be his fault?

karen said...

I cant take this day.. I really can't.

On another note: Burry on the SEC and GS..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5USSXfRpg8

DL said...

Karen @ 1:41

My suggestion: go naked.

I'm referring, of course, to an options trading term.

CV said...

...and if anyone wants to argue the point in another direction and say...

"Well it's a GOOD thing that he does these things because it projects POSITIVITY and the sense that all is well..."

Then... It's a LIE, because things AREN'T right...

And people don't (or shouldn't) vote for a "blow smoke up your asser in Chief"...

Worse...

When people come to the conclusion that the person that they BELIEVED in for HOPE & CHANGE (naively so), is just another FOS politicians, it deludes them further...

They're worse off than they were before...

What's even worse than that is that this time you have a figurehead that has the capability of being "culturally" divisive...

Those are dangerous HATE mechanisms to dredge up...

I'd argue that we may be in the process of taking BACKWARDS steps along those lines (not FORWARD ones)...

All because of acting hastily & irrationally...

CV said...

@karen

I'm about to pack it in myself...

DL said...

CV @ 1:54

Now Obama is suing the sheriff of Phoenix, in an effort to get the Latino vote.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/02/AR2010090202521.html

CV said...

rolls eyes

Dubya said...

I wasn't on vacation, I was CLEARING BRUSH...

McFearless said...

"Former President George W. Bush had spent more than twice as much time on vacation at this point in his presidency."

I'll ask this again....anon....why is Bush the benchmark for anything....better than bush is not acceptable to me.

this is the president that the Dem's claim was the worst in history yes? Why then are we comparing his vacation days to the candidate of hope and change we could believe in?

karen said...

DL, glad to see that you are still around.. and in good form. Your absence was disconcerting.

2010 Buffalo Bills said...

Our team is much better than the 2008 Detroit Lions...

karen said...

Reuters FLASH: Hewlett-Packard sues Mark Hurd: report


HousingWire
CMBS delinquencies accelerate toward 9% in August: http://goo.gl/fb/CHoJu

CV said...

"We'll probably win TWICE as many games"

Yeah but, the 2008 Lions were 0-16!

DL said...

K,

Disconcerting?

Now I'm going to feel perpetually guilty if I don't post comments.

karen said...

Ben.. I am not posting this to annoy you! "Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Growing pressure on the Federal Reserve to print more money to bolster the U.S. economy will likely boost the yen and franc just as the Japanese and Swiss governments seek weaker currencies, if history is a guide."

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aagWuP1qmptg

CV said...

Wanna know how bored I am?

This weekend I have to start putting up my weekly NFL game write-ups...

Well, I don't HAVE TO, but I will... It'll be part of the weekend threads this fall...

It's so dull, that I can't even get myself motivated to do the game write-ups...

karen said...

Today is
(a) quite a mixed bag
(b) up for grabs
(c) annoying as all h*ll

karen said...

Well, DL, it is rather hurtful that you post more at TBP than here : (

CV said...

d) a mixed bag of GRAB ASS that's annoying as h*ll

That's the best I can do...

CV said...

It's not hurtful to me if DL posts at TWSWB...

I've run out of words for that site (so somebody has to represent)...

karen said...

mrtopstep!!!

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/07/mrtopstep-back-to-work-in-september-but-not-many-seem-to-be-back/

72bat said...

k -
DL @ a:54
or better, at san onofre

CV said...

Here...

Early handicapping for NFL kickoff week...

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Thursday, Sept. 9 (8:30 EST)
Line: Saints by 5

Skip the "NFL Kickoff Concert" and lets get right to the game... Actually, I understand why the networks do these things... You know, to try and lure in new demographics towards football viewing by associating pop stars with NFL games... And, of course to sell advertising time (so all the Romans will know what to waste their money on)... But I digress...

Besides throwing to high school kids in Mississippi, Brett Favre hasn't seen much action this preseason... I'm skeptical that his 41 yo body will be able to make it through an entire NFL season, but I'm not stupid enough to automatically discard him as a possible threat... The issue with Favre, this year, is that teams are going to be COMING AFTER HIM (pressuring him with blitz packages)... The NFL is a copycat league... The "playbook" was exposed in last years NFC Championship game where Favre was treated the way your dog treats a stuffed animal... Minnesota's offensive line is much sketchier than they were last year...

Adrian Peterson is going to have to come up big here... He managed to put up big yards (and score 3 TD's in their last meeting, but he also coughed up 3 fumbles)... We'll see...

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have a defense that can put a lot of pressure on QB's, but Drew Brees negates a lot of that with his quick release and quick decisions...

Frankly, I don't like the matchup here... I think the Saints, player for player, scheme for scheme, match up very well vs. the Vikings... In last winter's NFC Championship, the game stayed close, but a lot of that was due to the fact that the Vikings were "on a roll" (after having trounced the Cowboys), and the Saints had been kind of sputtering for the last few games of the season, and were struggling with injuries in the defensive secondary...

The hardest thing in this game for the Saints to overcome, IMO, will be complacency... They will be receiving their Super Bowl rings, and the Superdome arena will be supercharged... Sometimes it's hard to stay "focused" in an atmosphere like that, and if the Vikings can play with discipline, they might be able stay in this game... I think they still have a chip on their shoulder from last seasons finale (for them)... I don't like the betting prospects, but "laying" 5 points seems to be a lot...

Simply on VALUE, I'd tend to take the VIKINGS for (0 units)... IOW - Not worth tossing $$ down on...

CV said...

Those, as always, are CV's words (not a cut and paste job that you get elsewhere)...

karen said...

there you go! bearish sentiment is not at an extreme : )

karen said...

sorry, my 2:31 was in reference to topstep video.

CV said...

@karen

I frankly think people are getting mixed up and interchanging BEARISH SENTIMENT (on the economy), with the markets...

All the chatter you hear is DOUBLE DIP, bad economy, yada, yada...

But the markets have yet to reflect this AT ALL...

Give me a nice little 20% crash here and I'll show you "bearish" on the markets...

People should be downright GIDDY that the markets are holding above 1000 here...

1999 baby!

McFearless said...

karen, 2:18,

hey "lady"...don't you be posting that shet....lol.

as for my real take: all these central bankers are going to have a big giant fail sign stamped on them when this is all over, in the meantime, they will keep playing games....lets call it the dilly dally plan.

karen said...

my twitter is overwhelming:

first, gotta luv her, AnneMarieTrades says $BIDU on its way back to 82.31

and how about this for interest's sake: BreakingNews

Rodney King is engaged to a member of jury that awarded him a $3.8 million settlement in police beating case http://bit.ly/a7zdjF

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Great weekend. Didn't get to the Smokies, but did look at something interesting. Since we moved here, 13 miles from the nearest town, there has been a rock quarry that has been quarrying stone for sale across the US for decades. These guys work 6 days a week, usually, and the quarry is about 3 miles from the house and you can hear the large machines and sometime dynamite.

Well, for the last 6 weeks there has been little sound from the quarry, so my wife and I trekked over there to see what was going on Saturday. Nothing was going on. No fresh tracks, and the machines are idle.

CRE? RRE? This stone is used for both building arms...

McFearless said...

I've sort of missed DL's comments as well.

karen said...

we break 1090 and i'll revive my avatar...

DL said...

McF @ 2:44

O.K., so let's have an argument over deflation.

CV said...

@karen

I hate to say it... but you can't use that "bottom" avatar anymore...

It makes the market go up...

McFearless said...

lol, well, I'm always game for that. to your credit man, you and I disagree all the time, but I think you realize I'm not ever angry at you when we are doing that, just disagree with you on some things...and you never take that personal.

karen said...

CV.. I was thinking lower.. my toes? maybe DL would post more..

CV said...

Alan Greenspan Admits America Is A Crony Capitalist System

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/alan-greenspan-admits-america-crony-capitalist-system

CV said...

"Cronyism you can Believe In"

McFearless said...

hmmm, watch the end of the topstep video today:

http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv

1300 by year end

"put that in your pipe and smoke it"

color me hesistant to put more than just a little tiny bit of capital to work one way or the other. I'm a spectator here.

karen said...

you know, there is an even bigger spy gap at 106 from last Monday..

Leftback said...

We don't like the SPY or the TBT here. Both have some work to do.
TLT could easily reach 106.50-107 again before carving out a right shoulder.

karen said...

more on bonds:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/government-bond-yield-gap/

karen said...

gathered from topstep that Tim is looking for spx sub 1000 before going higher..

themosmitsos

[3/3] Now the technical team of this crew is looking for "new lows <1000 before new highs >1127" keep in mind. Traders & Techs disagree

McFearless said...

Tim is, but Danny says they don't agree with Tim, but Tim has made all the best calls on those videos...chalk it up with everything else that appears mixed.

I'm not in an S&P 1,300 camp fwiw, but still can't rule out a strong push to the mid/high 1,100's. We'll see if/when we get there how things are looking.

Attorney for I-Man said...

My client will be issuing a statement in due course.

McFearless said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/33-billion-3-year-auction-comes-record-low-yield-079-primary-dealer-takedown-highest-may-200

CV said...

@mcF

Part of my thesis early August was just that...

Move under 1000, then go up and test those (higher than 1130 gaps)...

That's what's bugged me about this whole summer...

The constant pussyfooting around 1010 (avoiding sell-off), pussyfooting at 1040 (avoiding selloff)...

Now we're back up here again and the market needs to go DOWN again to hit those sub 1000 numbers to get back to 1200...

Schitzo!

Practically impossible to trade

karen said...

I wonder why my web pages won't load and I have to restart everything on market drops.. it seems to happen more than coincidentally.. but I'd have to keep a log to prove it.

McFearless said...

CV,

the lack of a true sell off not long after the flash crash is why I stopped messing with the idea of P3 in the near term....just wasn't lining up...didn't have the right "look"

I'll trade the dollar here, nothing else is really too appealing imo.

karen said...

OT: An ideal pet is a lot like a trophy wife. They're both adorable, able to perform stunts in wacky outfits, and often cost an arm and a leg to take care of. But because they're so lovable, we often pay exorbitant medical bills should they eat something they're not supposed to. After all, it's just so devastating to have to put them down.

http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/the-cost-of-having-pets/

DL said...

It does seem likely that the S&P is going to drift lower this month... maybe to 1050 or so. Certainly don't want to be long with a one-month time frame.

karen said...

On Tuesday 7th September 2010, @mrtopstep said:

RT @Eubiquitous SPX FUT #1090.20# was 9/03 highs...decent area to cover TLT highs SPY LOWS..this reminds me of the US. DOL trade..have to break the "PAIR"..

karen said...

mrtopstep

$ED_F #options $JPM & others bought total 40k EDV 93-95 put sprd from 2 to 2.5

McFearless said...

seems there are two big objetives this week, for bulls it's 1127 and for bears 1060.

place yer bets....(or don't)

karen said...

3:27 PM ET 9/7/10 (MarketWatch) -- In the wake of gold's marginal record high Tuesday, it's entirely possible that bullion will mount a major push into new territory.

But if it does so, it will be without the support of sentiment. That's because the gold timers are already too excited about the metal's recent action. As a result, there is a very weak wall of worry for a bull market to continue climbing.

Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among the shortest-term gold market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). As of last Friday's close, this average currently stood at 52.1%.

That's already higher than the vast majority of other readings of the past three years. And the HGNSI is likely to grow even more in the next few hours, as the gold timers digest bullion's new record close.

As contrarian analysts are fond of saying, bear markets like to descend a slope of hope. And the current sentiment environment would seem to be more accurately described as a slope of hope than a wall of worry.

Consider: The HGNSI has risen above the 50% level on five distinct occasions over the past three years. On each of those occasions, gold not only found further upside action difficult, it was trading at lower prices in several weeks' time.

-- Mark Hulbert

CV said...

I'll take the Raiders & 6.5 and call it a day...

karen said...

i hate it when the indices %s correlate so evenly.. especially spx and compq today..

karen said...

I'll take a bloody mary, please..

McFearless said...

The DSI on gold and silver got high 90% bulls a few months back, it's likely due for a turn down soon, but no way in hell will I try to short gold, I'm probably crazy enough to try silver though....again.

said it before, those 90% sentiment bulls never mark the immediate turn, gold wasn't any different.

karen said...

alaidi - All currencies acting "normally" on rapid risk aversion except $GBPUSD inexplicably standing apart. $EURJPY finally does 10630

karen said...

Beige Book and Consumer Credit for tomorrow..

Law firm wants Bank of New York to investigate Countrywide RMBS pools:
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/07/law-firm-wants-bank-of-new-york-to-investigate-countrywide-rmbs-pools

McFearless said...

ok, just want to post this thought out loud because it's been on my mind all day and during my 16 hours of car ride last week.

I actually think right now, if you were really heavy into some longs (like JP's reflation portfolio, see here: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-paulson-portfolio-post-mortem-which-we-learn-maestro-himself-advising-jp-future-go) it'd be way harder to sell than it would have been at the April top yes?

I've had emotions like that before....and then you know what happens, your longs drop and you think they'll come back, and you just keep holding them and they don't and you find more reasons why they will, but it just keeps going against you.

thoughts?

harder now to abandon the long strategy than it was in April....do you rationalize by saying something about the Fed?

whats the psychology out there? this is what matters....

karen said...

Ben, I don't talk to enuf people.. One shrewd fellow I know thinks the market is going to crash. I'll ask my appl buddy tonight at pizza.. he bot around $250, i think.. it's been above and below many times.. he planned as a long term hold.. other people i know wouldn't touch the market with a ten foot pole .. (No pole jokes!)

Leftback said...

They will keep on printing and QEasing and throwing currency at the wall until something sticks...

That's where we are. So how about the sideways strategy? Buy some dividend stocks and a few corporate bonds. Activate snooze button....

LB is not convinced of this but thinks it is worth a decent percentage of his funds to make a bet against outright deflation. If there is outright deflation, as a cash-rich debt-free saver, I win anyway.

CV said...

@mcf (3:53)

The main difference between April and now... IMO...

Is simply technical...

Everyone knows the market is a piece of crap and doesn't reflect anything real...

The only reason to stay long anymore is because TECHNICALLY, it may have held support (1010 or 1040), or whatever...

That thought will persist... until it doesn't...

karen said...

mrtopstep
$ES_F #futures $GS on the day was 300x 1,000 IN spu

# futures $ES_F #imbalace is 75 mil to buy spoos make new lows cant do the same thing every day $GS & $ Swiss Bank both selling

DL said...

McF,

What were you doing in Ohio anyway?

Business, pleasure, or inlaws?

McFearless said...

inlaws DL, was up there for a wedding, had a great time, love hanging with family.

McFearless said...

"They will keep on printing and QEasing and throwing currency at the wall until something sticks"

what an interesting choice of words...have a client that works very closely with one P Fisher at blackrock and when she asked him what their plans were back in 08 his exact words according to her was:

we are throwing wet noodles to see what will stick, we just don't have a real plan

of course, nothing has stuck thus far...mainly because you don't solve a problem with more of the same problem, perhaps you can delay it though, for a time, but the outcome is then that much worse.

LB, I understand your strategy, and you are one guy, so it's easy enough for you to change that, but it would freak me out to follow that for hundreds of people...see my nifty fifty post, that's in the back of my mind, haunting me.

karen said...

volume was low on the spy today.. trend is still down, need i remind you all.. and last week definitely worked off the oversold condition..

i want to see 109 flat tomorrow.. 106 should happen but this week but we will see.

McFearless said...

C,

I would agree with you about the technical difference....pissed as I should have bought the last test of the 1040 for a trade, you could have defined a stop easy on that set-up... I missed it though. andy had that mapped in his charts and I've had quite a lot of success trading off his charts for quite a few months now, I use them way more than EWI to verify my own work of late.

AT is the shet, though I'm going to destroy him this week in fantasy.

Leftback said...

McF:

LB is nimble. He smells a year end rally, based on a QE2 and extended tax cuts, among other pre-election weaselry. If LB sees a Republican austerity package on the way then it's into Treasuries like a flash...

karen said...

Ben, I thot I was the sh*t! or at least, according to you, I was posting the sh*t, laughing.

Leftback said...

K.,

I can see a move right back to the 1040-1050 area. It's a range bound market until further notice. Mr Market could look at your top and bottom for ever, and I for one can't say I blame him....

Leftback said...

BTW, campers, our FX genius Nic called this reversal after Labor Day quite clearly and accurately.

McFearless said...

Karen,

there are several people on my "the shet" list,

8-)

I-Man said...

@AT:

Thx fi the Neely... he's great.

Only had time to check the Dow charts, but I think his price is right... time may be off a tad.


@ Crew

Didnt think I'd pull an Onlooker, did ya?

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