Morning Audibles 9.9.10 - Are you READY?

The BREAD & CIRCUSES start tonight my friends...


My apologies, in advance, for any kind of random journey this thread may take, but publishing "original material" often means the author enters a sort of dreamlike state... You know how it happens in your dreams at night... These thoughts and clips kind of assemble themselves in some way that one could NEVER predict if they happened to be awake and/or conscious... The OUTPUT thereof, may end up being "Stanley Kubrick-ish", but that's the world I live in...


I suppose the CONTRARY to that would be a state of mind where NO ORIGINAL THOUGHTS existed... That "being-ness" happened to manifest itself as an OUTPUT of the random creative ideas of OTHERS... Those widgets were then "intercepted" and "programmed" into some kind of networked database by foolish & mindless drones (kinda like a blog, I suppose)... The final product ends up woven into something that only machines or sub-humans could understand... (those foolish mindless drones are CUTE & CUDDLY tho, aren't they?)...


That's the world that CV doesn't live in... (or DOES, but rebels against)...


BACK TO THE CIRCUSES... 





The "Modern Day Version" = THE NFL






Tonight is the "kickoff" spectacular... WORLD CHAMPION SAINTS vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (kind of a "WAAAAAAHHHHnabee" team [emphasis on "WAAAAAAAHHHHH"], that can never seem to get it totally together because of their propensity to COMPROMISE)... I'm leaving my GAME ANALYSIS out of the thread topic... It'll be found in the comment section... Instead, I'm going to focus on the peripherals...


SOCIO-ECONOMICS


Since "bread & circuses" alone no longer satiate the masses, the networks have taken to airing a PRE-GAME concert to add to the hype... One can think what they will about these PRE-GAME antics, but I assure you that they're NO DIFFERENT from the types of things that were presented II MILLENIA [or, MM] ago, in Rome, in the Colosseum... I know... I was there (as sure as "Lucius Aurelius Commodus" was emperor)...








OK... So about these PRE-GAME concerts... Let's just imagine for a minute that they ARE actually cool... I can go there with you if you want... Not TOTALLY... But I'll try... This year, I've heard, it's going to feature THE DAVE MATTHEWS BAND & TAYLOR SWIFT (more on that in a minute)... Last year, it featured THE BLACK EYED PEAS (who, CV has kind of a personal war against)... Actually - I'll admit that some of their songs are kind of "catchy", but I don't like the "message" they bring (in aggregate)... Witness for yourself the 2009 SOCIOECONOMIC version of BREAD & CIRCUSES...




Various Black Eyed Peas Lyrics: 
(sound familiar on Wall St., or in the ghettos, or in the voting booths across America)?



"We got five minutes for us to disconnect, from all intellect collect the rhythm effect..."

"Tonight’s the night night
Let’s live it up
I got my money
Let’s spend it up"

"Lets paint the town (paint the town)
We’ll shut it down (shut it down)
Lets burn the roof
and then we’ll do it again"

"Easy come
easy go
now we on top 
top top top top"

"we keep keep keep keep going up
we know what we say say
party everyday 
p-p-p-party everyday"



OK fine, thanks for telling me that (consider me informed)... It's obviously really helped me become a better person (thank you for that)... You've really given me HOPE... & CHANGED the world with that message...


Now we get to 2010... THE DAVE MATTHEWS BAND... First, TAYLOR SWIFT... I have to admit that CV has never heard of Taylor Swift, but here's a foto of her... 


All I can say is that I immediately approve simply due to the fact that she doesn't appear to be driving that car with a cell phone wrapped around her ear... At least it's a START!


DAVE MATTHEWS


Actually (damn I've lived a weird life)... CV has never met Dave Matthews, but my sister dated him in a clandestine way back in the beginning of time... She started up, and owned a travel agency in Charlottesville, VA back in the day, and they met just about the time the band got going, and had to start making travel plans for gigs... Of course it was just "one of those things", so it let loose shortly thereafter... My sister is somewhat of a Sheryl Crow "lookalike", so some of that might make sense to a random reader...




Anyway... Me (CV), thinking of Dave Matthews, and thinking of SOCIO-ECONOMICS, made me think of this... Last year, the misplaced "optimism", that was abundant in America, produced the performance of "Let's Get It Started" & "I Got a Feeling" by the BEP's... Fast Forward 2010... What will Dave Matthews play?


Could it be?


CRASH
(He actually penned this song when he & my sister were, you know... So who knows? Strange...)


Oops, Cv doesn't want to be NEGATIVE "market wise"... I'll be my best American citizen here, and suggest that everyone invest in equities, you know, FOR THE LONG RUN... Maybe things won't quite be so bad (due to all that lever pulling and button pushing that the GENIUSES who have 100% control over tend to do in the PRE-ELECTION period [in order to assuage wannabe blog authors into focusing on parades, dog grooming festivals, bathroom remodeling projects, & vacation itineraries]... Anything... PLEASE... Just save me from the effort involved in coming up with original thoughts... If successful, the mammoth efforts by TPTB, largely due to the GULLIBLE nature of the Romans at large, if they're lucky, may have the net effect of producing...


THE SPACE BETWEEN
(Meaning: a long period of NOTHINGNESS)

"The space between the tears we cry
Is the laughter keeps us coming back for more
The space between the wicked lies we tell
And hope to keep safe from the pain"

"Look at us spinning out in the madness of a roller coaster
You know you went off like the Devil in a church
In the middle of a crowded room
All we can do, my love is hope we don't take this ship down"

"The space between what's wrong and right
Is where you'll find me hiding, waiting for you
The space between your heart and mine
Is the space we'll fill with time"



Don't come to me for any answers... I just work here (and try to dredge up original thoughts from time to time)...


I don't have much else to say here... The markets are confused... The ECONOMY isn't all that confused, but that's beside the point in a STAR TREK gladiator world, right?




All I can say is... "Enjoy your profits & losses"... "Enjoy your bread & circuses"... AND... Otherwise... Since CV needs his own personal BREAD & CIRCUSES too...


ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!



284 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 284   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

I had to post this on top... FOOTBALL BITCHEZ!

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Thursday, Sept. 9 (8:30 EST)
Line: Saints by 5

Skip the "NFL Kickoff Concert" and lets get right to the game... Actually, I understand why the networks do these things... You know, to try and lure in new demographics towards football viewing by associating pop stars with NFL games... And, of course to sell advertising time (so all the Romans will know what to waste their money on)... But I digress...

Besides throwing to high school kids in Mississippi, Brett Favre hasn't seen much action this preseason... I'm skeptical that his 41 yo body will be able to make it through an entire NFL season, but I'm not stupid enough to automatically discard him as a possible threat... The issue with Favre, this year, is that teams are going to be COMING AFTER HIM (pressuring him with blitz packages)... The NFL is a copycat league... The "playbook" was exposed in last years NFC Championship game where Favre was treated the way your dog treats a stuffed animal... Minnesota's offensive line is much sketchier than they were last year...

Adrian Peterson is going to have to come up big here... He managed to put up big yards (and score 3 TD's in their last meeting, but he also coughed up 3 fumbles)... We'll see...

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have a defense that can put a lot of pressure on QB's, but Drew Brees negates a lot of that with his quick release and quick decisions...

Frankly, I don't like the matchup here... I think the Saints, player for player, scheme for scheme, match up very well vs. the Vikings... In last winter's NFC Championship, the game stayed close, but a lot of that was due to the fact that the Vikings were "on a roll" (after having trounced the Cowboys), and the Saints had been kind of sputtering for the last few games of the season, and were struggling with injuries in the defensive secondary...

The hardest thing in this game for the Saints to overcome, IMO, will be complacency... They will be receiving their Super Bowl rings, and the Superdome arena will be supercharged... Sometimes it's hard to stay "focused" in an atmosphere like that, and if the Vikings can play with discipline, they might be able stay in this game... I think they still have a chip on their shoulder from last seasons finale (for them)... I don't like the betting prospects, but "laying" 5 points seems to be a lot...

Simply on VALUE, I'd tend to take the VIKINGS for (0 units)... IOW - Not worth tossing $$ down on...

CV said...

@MEH

Hoffer... Your ass better come by from time to time and make some football calls...

AmenRa said...

Karen

I thought I changed that :-)
I was probably reading the text from another chart when I thought I was reading the AUDJPY info.


...............................

Also note that futures contracts have rolled over to Dec 2010 and fair value is is around 1093 on the SPX futures. So even if it's down (ex: 1097) it's actually up.

AmenRa said...

But lost in current probability theory or
randomness is the idea of self-similarity,
that there are patterns within complex
systems that replicate throughout any
timescale. The thought experiment
commonly used is a pile of sand. Building a
pile of sand one grain at a time produces a
system that appears to be stable and may
appear to be in equilibrium. But as the pile
grows larger and larger, a single grain of
sand can set off an avalanche. The
avalanche can be any size and occur on any
side of the pile. One second the pile of sand
was stable, and the next second a single
grain of sand produces a catastrophe.
This is because the pile of sand is really not
stable; it is in a state of criticality or
disquilibrium. The fact that it stood in a
state of criticality for a long time says
nothing about its stability. In fact this is
precisely the point of the “Minsky” moment:
that a system can appear stable, but in a state
of criticality the longer it appears stable the
larger the potential for disaster. And even if
the disaster is large, as in an avalanche on
the sand pile, it may not still represent the
true potential for catastrophe.
Let’s say that the sand pile has grown rather
large, and that a single grain of sand set off a
seemingly large avalanche, but that large
avalanche did not restore equilibrium.
Rather, it only affected some of the areas of
instability while keeping others in a state of
criticality. The fact that new grains of sand
can be piled on without immediately
triggering additional avalanches says
nothing about the potential for another
avalanche, large or small. The pile of sand
after the first avalanche can remain in a
critical state for another grain of sand or for
an infinite number of grains. In a state of
criticality the potential for another avalanche
is not a function of randomness.

from: Atlantic Capital Management "Another Perfect Storm"
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/atlantic-capital-management-special-report-another-perfect-storm

CV said...

@Amen

... and yet some people think of what you said there as BAD... or, the authors who warned of that were simply aligned with the TIN FOIL HAT crowd...

I simply see it as "balance"... Or, "imbalance", as the case may be (propped up by one grain of sand & believed by the uninitiated)...

KOYAANISQATSI (one of CV's favorites of all time)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PirH8PADDgQ

CV said...

If you're sitting at a table of TEXAS HOLD 'EM poker, and you can't manage to spot the SUCKER at the table...

The SUCKER is YOU...

karen said...

Glad I got a headstart on this before morning! So many deep thots! laughing..

Hey.. the NEW OFFICIAL KOL video! "Radioactive" to satisfy CV's socioeconomic theme...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIUk9Lwzkho

CV said...

@karen

The DEEP thots are only so you can get a DEEP sleep...

That way... you can wake up refreshed (and not have to worry about what the coffee beans do, or, if you're behind the 8-ball because ur on west coast time vs. New York)... :-)

Anonymous said...

CV,

A lot of your posts are quite unique to the American culture so can't say much on that, and of course, can't say anything on American Football as I ain't got a clue. Football and LB's diving Steven Gerrard and clueless Liverpool are a different thing. But I just love Dave Matthews Band. Sometimes, it gets kind of puppyish, but otherwise it is just super. I hope LB doesn't go "Hike up your skirt a lil more and show me the world to me". :-)

Prashant

PS: While on games, in India we are having Commonwealth Games (British colonies I guess still revel in such kind of thing). So the point is I was telling my dad that these guys are spending like Rs 350 Billion while the shit around just keeps on piling. Amazing. Just amazing.

Prashant

Andy T said...

Coming to you from the Hotel Le Germain in Calgary...this is one Euro-chic boutique hotel...Calgary is getting all "grown up" with a place like this. I don't quite belong here....maybe Karen does.

I'm ready for some football!

McFearless said...

Epic post!
Man I can't wait for tonight, Andy T is going down, AP is going to fumble twice tonight! lol. And Bama is going down on Saturday....whooooo!


CV,

great socionomic example with the BEP lyrics, those fit well for the period to say the least...."we keep going up".

As for the market, I'm ready for this biatch to break one way or the other already so I can make some trades, thinking that might not happen til Friday or Monday though.

Watching max pain the next few days, it would seem we'll get back to closing above max pain, but we'll see.

McFearless said...

Remember all those people in Chicago crying because they didn't get the Olympics, you had heroes like Oprah going nuts about it:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/olympic-disaster-in-vancouver-taxpayers.html

McFearless said...

Tom Brady in a serious car accident early this morning, jaws of life were used on the car....apparently he only has whiplash, or that's what is reported at this time.

This is big news....especially for fantasy owners.

McFearless said...

hope he's ok

AmenRa said...

Damn here come 1110.

AmenRa said...

because weekly claims came in at 451k.

McFearless said...

1127 by friday would seem a decent target, maybe Monday

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/forum/2010-09-09-column09_ST_N.htm

What would a unifying president look like?

72bat said...

vancouver's olympics liabilities include
"$110-million outlay for 252 affordable housing units"
$436,500 per unit is affordable housing?

CV said...

Brady? Really? Wow...

I woke up late 2day...

Rally on Garth... Rally on Wayne...

CV said...

@Amen

1110... Well you knew was going to happen right?... Right? - lol

karen said...

Morning! overslept.. might go back to bed!

McFearless said...

CV,

It sounded like he was ok, but they made a point to say "serious" car accident so I'm not sure.

was bad enough when he missed that whole season after going down in 1Q, I think this morning he was on his was to practice.

karen said...

okay.. i'm over it.. we can sell-off now.

CV said...

@Amen

"because weekly claims came in at 451k"

---

Yeah, well you read the ZH article that said that 6 states (including California), didn't report because of the Labor day holiday...

So...

The government basically just makes these numbers up on the fly people... Nothing to see here...

Go back to bed karen...

CV said...

"I'm too busy playing golf and riding my bike in Martha's Vineyard"...

Just jot something down and feed it to a news anchor...

McFearless said...

wonder how many will sell rosh if we can pop a little further after the first hour. I see more and more calls last night for 1,300, that's the stuff of wave 2 psychology.

McFearless said...

yeah, CV, I did see that ZH article, I really ror at all the people that trade the claims estimates...


estimates

GIB bitchez

CV said...

@McF

I knew you'd like the RAIDERS video...

AmenRa said...

CV

Trading above and closing above 1110 are two different things. The SPX has climbed to the mountaintop. The question is will it plant a flag at the top or realize its harness is broken and plummet?

karen said...

look at MCD chart, pls.. I got one candle right yesterday..

McFearless said...

it's the only stock in the dow that is down....90% days every day!

karen said...

from about 6 min ago: mrtopstep

$SPX #options oct 1070-1100 put sprd paper paying 9.00 on 40k, 8000 trade so far, still bid

CV said...

@Amen

Just hope it doesn't stop on the mountaintop and take up yodeling...

CV said...

@Amen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqMVjsaGEZo&feature=related

AmenRa said...

CV

That may cause some traders to push it over the edge.

karen said...

On Thursday 9th September 2010, @mrtopstep said:

#elliotwave $ES_F #futures lots of overlapping structure on the very short term #charts, possibly still in a corrective pattern near the highs here ESZ 1107.00, minor b wave?? need to take out the 1107 area with an increase in volume to negate the possibility of a return to 1087 in a c wave.

I-Man said...

You've got a beautiful mind, CV... way to weave the thread.

Back after the close,
-I

karen said...

haven't had a black opening 30 min candle on spy since Aug 26..

CV said...

@karen

At least I can say that it doesn't seem as boring in the pit to topstep as it was on Tuesday...

CV said...

Funny quote of the morning...

"John Taylor saying that "unless a miracle takes place, the Greek situation will deteriorate and other countries will follow in the next few years." That's fine: G-Pap is currently taking advanced transmogrification lessons at the local alchemy university"

AmenRa said...

1110 has a force field around it. The only way the market will break through it is with the POMO later on this morning.

McFearless said...

gut feeling in markets gets you killed, this is basically fact for traders, instead you usually have to invert emotions.

ok, so that said, I have a bad gut feeling that within six months there is going to be a major algo blow-up, something very scary. These 90% days, the more of them we have and the closer together they start getting and something is going to happen with these hundreds of thousands of quotes coming in at mili-second speed, it almost feels like we are going to start getting them every day if volume does in fact return, and every algo will be working OT to be on the right side of the daily trend.

whipsaw won't even describe it

CV said...

@Amen

It's very strange (or not)...

But anyway... the 1110 is not a number that is really bounced around alot (except around here)...

I don't hear many (or ANY) market technicians talking about the .09 extension from 1220...

Personally, I kind of assign added value to it was well for a different reason...

1065 was the flash crash low... That happened on a Thursday... The market was fluttering around all Friday trying to find it's bearings...

It settled right on 1110 for the Friday WEEKLY close (very next day)...

Coincidence?

McFearless said...

POMO has had nothing better than mixed equity results, despite the fact I see people trying to claim after the fact that it's "worked"

right after ZH came out with the dates in that post we had two in a row that were big down days for stocks....there is no edge with POMO, it's a coin toss, and as it should be, because the Fed doesn't change trends

CV said...

@McF

I wonder if the HFT algos are Jewish?

Tomorrow is the start of Rosh Hashanah

CV said...

@McF

LB jumped on the POMO thesis, but then he abandoned it, I think...

Hard to say, because if he was really abandoning it, he'd have been LONG the market this morning, and instead he said yesterday that he was going short expecting 1070-1080...

Tough trading around here...

McFearless said...

What kind of CC(s) does everyone here use?

did you all see that article BR linked yesterday about AXP and late payments?

karen said...

Early Strength Remains Steady
Thu Sep 9 10:00:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
Stocks continue to sport strong gains in the opening minutes of trade, but the S&P 500 has paused near the 1110 line, which hasn't been seen in almost one month. The S&P 500 is now up almost 7% since its August low little over two weeks ago.

Strength among stocks has caused volatility to cool, such that the Volatility Index is down nearly 4%.

With stocks up and volatility down, Treasuries have run into selling. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is down 14 ticks and the 30-year Bond is down one full point. Results from an auction of 30-year Bonds are due at 1:00 PM ET.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+1.9%), Energy (+1.3%), Telecom (+1.0%), Tech (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.8%), Industrials (+0.8%), Utilities (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), Materials (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.6%)
Declining Sectors: (None)

karen said...

Ben.. i need to delete that post! TMI!

McFearless said...

yeah, I think he was a short hedge though today rather than a net short because I'm pretty sure he's net long right now with his dividend stock idea if I read his posts correctly, which I understand, just not on board with because I view dividend stocks as compelling for long term buys and I'm not going to buy them in the middle of what I still think is a secular bear, so we'll see, either way he's probably holding up ok overall despite putting on that short since all those stocks are likely up a lot today, his bond call was a little early as well but that seems to be the right move at the moment, at least getting out of TLT seems to be the right move, I took my profits off there and ran for clients, I'm just sitting in cash with that right now, some FA's aren't afraid to sit on cash for a time.

My main thing with POMO when it came out was that I'm confident anyone pushing around a lot of money knew those dates well in advance before they came out on ZH, and they had already placed bets accordingly, so there was no advantage there at all, it was blown way out of proportion but this comes from people thinking the Fed is all powerful, something I just can't wrap my head around because I've just seen them fail time and time again since I got involved with markets, always guessing, never really sure about what they are doing.....

McFearless said...

damn, I missed it before you deleted it

McFearless said...

oh, regarding CC's, yeah maybe that's not best on here, my point was, in general it would seem to me that the AXP business model is really under threat here, that kind of stuff going on with late fees, charging for cards to offer benefits other card companies now offer without charging an annual fee for the card, etc.

not to mention that retail outlets pay a much bigger cut to amex than they do to the others, I know the old argument was that amex card holders spend more on average, but I'm not sure if that really holds true anymore.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Any truth to report that some states didn't report initial claims last week due to holiday?

CV said...

@Bruce

You can't handle the truth! :-)

McFearless said...

Bruce,

I see claims that 9 states didn't, but does it really matter if it's true or not?

The job market is bad...that's my report.

Once the "uncertainty" clears up though (and some are claiming that'll happen as soon as taxes are cut) then all will be well...

CV said...

@McF

Yeah I'm pretty sure that when all the "uncertainty" clears up (read: STOCK MARKET GOES UP ANOTHER 500 handles)...

Then there will be "confidence"... and as a result, companies will start deploying the PILES OF CASH they're sitting on...

ROR

CV said...

I'm practicing for my appearance on CNBC...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Never mind, I found it.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks rose Thursday after the Federal Reserve finished monetizing government debt, putting freshly minted cash in the hands of primary dealers.

The Fed had previously published a schedule enabling the primary dealers to front run today's debt monetization, which accounted for the massive rally in treasuries the past week.

karen said...

Bruce, here is the news from Bloomberg: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aam4GVG_ZaU0&pos=1

But, I agree with Ben, it hardly matter.. and the numbers are made up anyway : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Thanks, guys....

McFearless said...

well, it's really early so I hope I'm wrong but I hate to say it guys, just seems we are going to be sitting here at 4 pm without any clarity again.

McFearless said...

CV,

pretty good start there for CNBC, you could tie those comments in to it being a stock pickers market...and then come up with some off the wall random data about forward p/e's

CV said...

@Bruce

"Stocks rose Thursday after the Federal Reserve finished monetizing government debt, putting freshly minted cash in the hands of primary dealers."

---

Ever wonder when you're going to read this headline?

"Stocks tumbled after the freshly minted cash that was put in the hands of primary dealers by the Federal Reserve, and used to artificially bid up stocks, was then offloaded in huge chunks to unsuspecting 401k holders as their monthly allocations were deployed at the higher prices"

Jennifer said...

McF -- I thought the old adage was "sell on Rosh Hashanna, buy on Yom Kippur." I think its more about volume returning after the end of the holy days, but hey, I'm Catholic, so what do I know. Alphahorn had an interesting channel drawn today showing 1111 as the top.

karen said...

This is not the best article for me to read, LOL..

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/09/why-alcohol-is-good-for-you/

McFearless said...

another thing making it tough right now is I think I can develop two valid counts that are a little different depending on if I'm using futures or the cash.

McFearless said...

@Jennifer,

well, I think that is the new saying, I didn't know this but yesterday Danny on top step said it used to be the other way around, you sold Yom and bought Rosh. Either way, I'm just confused right now on my end so I'm not going to do anything until the charts clear up some, just need to be honest with myself about it and not force anything.

Sulu said...

Glad to see that pic from Star Trek episode "BREAD & CIRCUSES". *Finally*, here's a blog post I can enjoy. ;-)

McFearless said...

and, btw, happy new year to anyone celebrating today. lets hope that this truly does begin the days of awe!

McFearless said...

missed this yesterday but it's pretty good:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/09/was-last-week-a-buying-panic.html

CV said...

@karen

I loved that article!...

I ought to cut and paste it to use as a blog topic... Oh no wait, I don't do that...

CV said...

@Sulu

may you live long and HOPEfully prosper...

CV said...

In fact...

That is a true wish of mine... That everyone lives long enough to confront the outcomes of their decisions...

karen said...

iuubob

RT @FuturesTrader71: RUMOR OF LARGE COMMODITY FUND FORCED TO LIQUIDATE ON MARGIN CALLS. $$

(oops, thot i posted this awhile ago.)

karen said...

"Of course, relationships have their own chemistry, a language of dopamine, oxytocin, vasopressin, etc. But I think that in the rush to decipher the bodily molecules, we are missing the essential lesson, which is that some of the most valuable health benefits don’t come from compounds that can be bottled, or condensed into a gel capsule. Instead, they come from other people, from those lovely conversations we share over a glass or three of wine."

Andy T said...

Don't trust any move higher that begins with "bullish data."

There's something about the overnight wave that I don't trust here...I think we saw the highs this morning.

That's my $.02 from Calgary....

McFearless said...

looks like he's fine:

http://www1.whdh.com/news/articles/local/12002173077017/tom-brady-involved-in-2-car-accident/

CV said...

For the record, CV has no stance on what this pastor does or doesn't do in exercising his right to free speech...

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=166257

But my question is... Why does OBAMA constantly feel the need to "sound off" on such things?

McFearless said...

AT,

well, that sort of makes me feel better, btw, your boy in your avatar made the cover of the RollingStone this week.

I've still never seen the show. We've gotten into Weeds the last few weeks, watching all the old shows.

McFearless said...

CV,

I agree, he has the right to freedom of speech, but I don't support what that guy is doing, I think it's idiotic in fact. I don't see it causing anything but trouble, nor do I read anywhere in the Bible where this would be encouraged.

CV said...

@karen

"Instead, they come from other people, from those lovely conversations we share over a glass or three of wine."

---

Or otherwise you could look at it this way...

When CV pounds down about 6 beers, and the influence of that puts me on the keyboard to write a blog post that I know will piss some people off, then the net result is that it revs up the DEFENSE mechanisms of the parties involved...

The FIGHT or FLIGHT response...

It's the way of evolution... The weak get bulldozed, and or marginalized...

CV said...

@McF

I suppose you're right... If I had to come down on the subject, I think it's a dumb idea (a "dumb idea", by my definition, is something that I'd never do personally - although I do end up DOING things that end up being dumb)...

When I say I have NO STANCE on it... That means that I don't really have a say in what other people choose to do or how they demonstrate...

That opinion only changes, as the subject of their demonstrations or actions start hitting closer to home...

Anyway my point is... I'd think the POTUS should stay FAR AWAY from making any public statements about something like that...

I thought there was supposed to be separation from Church & State in this country...

So let me get this straight... we have the liberal ACLU out there taking "God" out of the Pledge of Allegiance... But then we have a POTUS telling a pastor that he shouldn't burn a book...

Doesn't compute...

karen said...

Excellent point, Andy @ 11:26.. why didn't I think of that : (
I did point out the opening black 30 min candle on spy, however. Of course, I was ignored, laughing.

Calgary!! Wonder if you will bump into Somer and Billy! (he is a surveyor.) Go to Rouge for dinner!!

http://www.rougecalgary.com/main/index.php?id=75

CV said...

Calgary

all I can think of are rodeos and...

Eddie the Eagle

Andy T said...

Watch the first two seasons of Mad Men. Last two seasons weren't as solid, but those first two are worth a Netflixing.

Love the Don Draper character....such a "flawed" person...

Nic said...

Right enough getting my arms and legs chopped off in crude ;)
Epic post today.

Some light relief from the markets for you:
http://gawker.com/5632509/

CV said...

@Nic

Do you enjoy American Football at all?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

But my question is... Why does OBAMA constantly feel the need to "sound off" on such things?

...I posted a blurb earlier on what a "consensus" president might look like. I think of Obama now as a Katie Couric type of personality...one who cut his teeth as a community organizer, and is more reactive than proactive towards events. He had a few ideas that he ran on, and now as one wit said, throws spaghetti on the wall to see if it will stick.

...Not many new ideas...Katie just reacts to the news, and I think this pres does too...

CV said...

@Nic

...on that link...

I didn't need to know that... ror

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39076589/ns/business-world_business/

Toil and trouble: Romania rejects tax on witches

...However, Massachusetts....now here is a new idea for revenue!

karen said...

Nic.. LOL out loud on the link.. I usually don't get to the gossip sites this early in the morning : )

karen said...

zerohedge

This commodity fund liquidation is getting fierce
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck

karen said...

It is very hokey for the spx to just be fixated at 1108..

CV said...

"This commodity fund liquidation is getting fierce"

You can probably chalk it up to Cramer... He was pounding the desk to go long SLV the other day...

CV said...

@karen

We're all just happy that wine & watermelons are legal... lol

McFearless said...

CV,

I agree, Oblahblah would be better off not getting involved in petty things like the Koran burning, unless this was going on nationally I don't thinks it's worthy of presidential concern.

karen said...

well, do you agree or disagree that this is ODD.. or STALLING.. or set to MELT UP.. ???

McFearless said...

watermelons...I'm still laughing about that facial that girl took. that must have hurt.

McFearless said...

ok folks, first trade in a little while, I have entered a small short of the RUT here. Just looking for a quick trade though I'd be happy with something more.

karen said...

Ben.. don't mention that video! I come apart laughing..

now, come on.. look at this spx.. 1108 STILL!!!

karen said...

for the WHATEVER file:

Despite popular belief, research finds the US is not in double dip recession- Thursday, September 9th, 2010, 11:15 am

An expected decline in housing prices notwithstanding, academics are now arguing that the U.S. economy is not seeing another downturn, although that is the way it feels since recovery is so slow.

Official reports from the National Bureau of Economic Research, will likely soon say the Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 — the longest downturn since the Great Depression.

McFearless said...

academics arguing

so many visuals there

pocket protectors and such

whatever, c'mon man!, and ROR

CV said...

@karen

What's more weird about 1108 is that futures have been down near 1102-1103 for awhile now...

CV said...

If you're bored, you can click on this link I got the other day...

I thot the pics were really cool...

http://blogs.denverpost.com/captured/2010/07/26/captured-america-in-color-from-1939-1943/

karen said...

I'm getting unnerved.. this stand-offs always end with a melt-up..

CV said...

NBER = National Bureau of Economic RETARDS

karen said...

The PBR plant made me smile! These are fantastic.. must send out to others.. thank you!

I-Man said...

Big set on the horizon...

Surfs up Brah...

karen said...

from Jim Sinclair just now: Gold has the exact appearance that it had in the 70s when it battled around $400. When the bulls prevailed gold went directly to $887.50.

I was carrying a considerable long position then. Someone at Bache, who cleared for my firm at the time, revealed my account balance and the locals pounded me. Since I never let the margin man call me, I called myself by liquidating 9000 contracts to stay financially whole.

As they were pounding me, much like today, Deutsche Bank who was then representing the Saudis came in as a big buyer at $398. I immediately stepped ahead of Deutsche Bank, buying back the 9000 contracts I had sold and a few more for good luck, therein putting the price of gold above the $400 mark for the third time. As I recall, Yra Harris and his famous father Lenny Bravado were handling my buying in Chicago as my floor team bought the Comex in New York.

This was a lesson I learned, via Bert Seligman, from a great bear, "Sell-em Ben Smith." It works on both the long and short side. When bravado is unleashed on you the weak hand is the other side. If you get real company on your side then take your position back and double it as a long or as a short. Today the Gold Banks are operating on bravado based on fabricated statistics.

In 1929 Bert and Sell-em Ben Smith were short the market immensely. Bert was a bit edgy as they were two weeks early. Ben told Bert that for every share he was bought in on to sell 200 shares more. Ben Smith and Bert did very well in the crash that followed.

CV said...

@karen

I keep looking at those fotos over and over...

Anecdotal things to note...

Photo 12... There girls are obviously sisters and their dresses are all the same printed fabric... Obviously homemade...

Photo 20... Look at the number of bare feet

Photo 21... CV loves that garden

All in all, fantastic fotos

Nic said...

Hi CV
I do watch football and enjoy it, never miss a ND college game. Im not sure I know enough for your fantasy league

McFearless said...

Jim Sinclair cracks me up.

I can't believe he didn't mention any secret Chinese meetings or gnomes there.

I heard he is a good buddy of that dark lord Lo Pan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMj3e4_XoOA

karen said...

Ben, I do love to post Sinclair for you : )

Nic.. hope you are loving your crude short now!

CV said...

@Nic

Nobody knows anything about fantasy...

We're all just posers... :-)

McFearless said...

ND and Michigan this week Nic.

that should be a fun one.

McFearless said...

shet, I almost want to take the RUT short off already! ROR.

karen said...

CV.. lots of barefeet.. lots of homemade dresses in same fabrics.. love the hair cuts on the young girls..

loved these slim black women working the field in #9 with toddler in the background.. that would have been me..

lots of towheads and bare feet in 20.. darling socks on those that did have shoes.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Did any of you read this this morning?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39063577/

Fidel Castro: Cuban Economic Model Doesn't Work

Castro has become a fellow capitalist! Dislikes Iran, likes Jews, is anti-nuclear weapons, admits to past mistakes..(!)

...Can he run for congress?

karen said...

UUP up!

karen said...

Oh, CV, you are so wrong! I know plenty about fantasy.. just not the football kind.

McFearless said...

Bruce,

I caught that, amazing what happens to you when you almost die eh?

McFearless said...

oh something is wrong with me, I'm not even happy about this trade right now, I'm just nervous.

karen said...

Ben.. that's fine.. it's when you are exuberant that you know you need to sell.. just don't take your eye off the ball..

McFearless said...

I'm pretty fixed on the screens right now, if we consolidate around here I'll close because I think I'll get another chance at the same trade in between now and tomorrows close.

quick hits and I'm outta here

karen said...

holding my breath.. we gotta get to 1103 spx..

McFearless said...

that was the best set up I had in almost three weeks though.

CV said...

I just had a thot occur to me...

It seems I recall back in April doing a thread about how the market PEAKS and TROUGHS had all been following (give or take), a 55 day cycle...

Well, were coming up near 55 days since the 1010 this summer... I think we're in the high 40's...

I'm going to have to go check...

McFearless said...

C,

On 5/5 EWI published a "time for a change" chart mapping daily cycles since the October 07 peak....we are still working off of that, maybe I could build it in TOS. I don't ever directly trade off those cycles but they help confirm or provide non-confirmation for wave counts.

yesterday was new moon also.

karen said...

not satisfied with 1103 now.. need to see 1099.

McFearless said...

bears have to be slightly encouraged now, the form looks motive(ational) like.

karen said...

mrtopstep

Big roll in S&P on todays Mr Topstep video http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/09/big-roll-in-sp/

I-Man said...

Aloha!

karen said...

crude dumped.. spx next?

I-Man said...

Lookin like we might get a 5 wave down here McF... on YM anyway, not watching anything else.

McFearless said...

yes it does man

karen said...

Highway deaths decline.. figures.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anVPzlL1xgro

karen said...

Tim doesn't like what's going on.. love love love him.

karen said...

Thursday, September 9th, 2010, 12:30 pm
Source: REO Insider
Kennedy Wilson has been retained by U.S. Bank to auction off $80.9 million in commercial REO properties in six states.

The portfolio consists of 12 properties in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Oregon and includes Class A office buildings, retail centers, commercial land and oceanfront property that had been pegged for a luxury condominium project. The auction arm of Kennedy Wilson, a real estate investment and services firm based in Beverly Hills, Calif., is handling the property sale.

Bids, due Sept. 21, may be submitted for individual properties or for bulk purchases. Funding must occur by Sept. 29 with closing by Sept. 30.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I was tempted this morning, but didn't hit the buy button...looks like another good decision.

McFearless said...

didn't read the article but a staple of bear markets is that speed limits come down....I saw an article the other day that shows a town in the US that has created an illusion 3D speed bump image that fools drivers into slowing down.

this was one of the 2003 socionomic predictions for the bear market....lower speed limits or new controls for fast drivers.

really pisses me off with my giant led foot

McFearless said...

ok, that's closed for the time being, nice hit there. we'll see if I can get anything else today.

McFearless said...

wow, I got to hold something for about one full hour, long term baby.

bob said...

MCF

That reminds me of when I was young, we called it "roping".

Two people, one on each side of the road. Pretend you are both pulling on an imaginary rope across the road. Really lean into it. People would slow down, sometimes stop.

Not recommend on a busy street.

Nic said...

Been heartbreaking being a ND fan for a while but last weekend there was a glimmer of hope. Thank doG for their defence.

Crude is being clobbered. I love it. Crude is correlating with the dollar for once and not just risk.

karen said...

spx is weak and weaker under 1104.. i'll let that be my line in the sand for now.

Anonymous said...

CNBC running a segment called "Death of Equities?"

How desperate is that? They are actually trying to manufacture their own bottom signal.

McFearless said...

Bob,

that's funny, that would have been good for youtube if you were able to record it.

McFearless said...

crude seemed to run into some serious trendline problem areas earlier today....wish I was any good at trading oil, that was also a good set up.

karen said...

Dollar-bullish ETF approaches 'death cross'
1:48 PM ET 9/9/10
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- An exchange-traded fund that follows the movement of the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies looks to be approaching a closely watched technical indicator traders call a "death cross."


Technical analysis has grown in popularity as investors grope to make sense of an uncertain market prone to violent swings after the credit collapse. For example, investors were bombarded by headlines in early July pronouncing a death cross in the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

Traders closely watch moving averages for major indexes to get a feel for trends and where markets may be heading. When the 50-day moving average moves below the longer 200-day moving average, it's known as a death cross and may forecast lower prices ahead. The opposite situation -- when the 50-day rises above the 200-day -- is often called a "golden cross."


The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP), which has roughly $1 billion in assets, has seen sharp reversals in 2010 but has settled within a narrower range since about the middle of August. Meanwhile, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are close to touching, although there is no guarantee they will actually cross.

The fund tracks the movement of the dollar against a bucket of foreign currencies -- the largest component is the euro at 57.6%, followed by the Japanese yen at 13.6%, according to Invesco PowerShares.

The ETF's 3-year chart shows the last death cross occurred in the spring of 2009, and it predicted a sharp decline in the dollar and a robust rally in stocks. The golden crosses in September 2008 and February 2010 accurately forecasted rallies in the dollar-bullish fund.

Still, if the ETF forms another death cross, it's not clear that the pattern will hold and the greenback will fall. The fund climbed steadily in early 2010 and then spiked during the spring when Europe's sovereign-debt crisis shook markets. It then fell sharply during the summer before bouncing in early August.

karen said...

Now, the ETF appears trapped in a range as traders consider the next move. The CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE), which gives investors exposure to the euro's movement against the dollar, also appears to be searching for direction.

"The currency market is a bit like a car without a driver at the moment," said Steven Barrow, currency strategist at Standard Bank, in a note Thursday. "Careening from one side to the other but, somehow managing to steer a pretty straight line."

The main catalyst for currency markets is the euro versus the dollar but the relationship "seems asleep at the wheel right now," Barrow added.

"Traders' paranoia over further quantitative easing from the Fed, which could decimate the dollar, is only matched by the fear of default from a euro zone member, which could decimate the euro," the strategist wrote. "While these two issues fight it out in the 'race to the bottom' competition, euro/dollar is not moving and the currency market as a whole seems pretty moribund."

This standoff could persist before currency markets "wake up" and a new trend emerges. The dollar should benefit from higher risk aversion and the flight-to-safety trade. Over the past few years, a rising dollar has been a bad sign for stocks. The greenback spiked in the second half of 2008 and stocks tanked as the credit crisis exploded on markets. The snapback rally in stocks in 2009 was characterized by a falling dollar.

However, the dollar and U.S. stocks were moving higher together earlier this year. The relationship with gold prices has been even more erratic recently. Gold and the dollar are not correlated historically, but they have moved in lockstep at times over the past year.

"When there are big spikes in risk aversion, we have seen PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund move higher along with gold prices," said Martin Kremenstein, chief investment officer at DB Commodity Services, a Deutsche Bank (DB) unit that designed the dollar-bullish ETF.

The rally in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has pushed the ETF near record highs. Therefore, both the dollar and gold appear to be at key technical levels and could see big moves soon.

McFearless said...

I'm going to re-load here with a very tight stop....we'll see.

McFearless said...

CAT seems to be working it's way back to 70 flat.

karen said...

alaidi

Pullback in #commodities partly due to selloff in China on rumors of a probe in #rubber futures. WSJ

McFearless said...

did people watch the Meredith interview at BR's in the video section?

amazing when you listen to her that people still wonder if Lehman was THE mistake of the crises...

C'mon Man.

"in the early 90's that's when subprime was really getting under way, that's when credit cards really became a national business"

the debt story is so much bigger than effing Lehman Brothers.....pfft.

karen said...

today is wild.. a real shakeout if you ask me.. this is when you have to have belief.. or be completely technical..

bob said...

FWIW

AUDUSD bounced off of declining trendline resistance on the monthly chart.

bob said...

Pardon, it was more prominent on the weekly.

karen said...

oh really??

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/deutsche-bank-said-to-weigh-stock-sale/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook

karen said...

CV.. this is for you: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f1db3594-bc39-11df-8c02-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss

President warns on burning of Korans

I-Man said...

Sure has the feel of someone laying down sandbags here...

Flood control.

McFearless said...

back to the three waves up and down stuff ..

karen said...

i swear.. we would all be smart to step aside here and let this day pass..

I-Man said...

yeah, that was a tease for sure.

I-Man said...

Worst day I've had in awhile. ShIT happens.

McFearless said...

karen, I think you are right but I'll let this second trade stop out if that's the case.

I still think we'll be sitting here at 4 knowing as much as we did at 9:30....if that's the case friday/monday would seem to be very important.

karen said...

and the indices keep stalling out.. my screen is barely a flicker.. and who is left to buy anyway? who would want to? have the franklins of the word taken their blinders off? or has necessity for necessities finally become reality.

CV said...

@I-Man

After two weeks in Hawaii, I imagine just about anything could qualify as your worst day in awhile...

McFearless said...

looks like buyers have come in. little bear fake-out perhaps.

CV said...

@karen (2:20)

So what is it now? The teleprompter in chief is now the book burner in chief?

He must have read Fahrenheit 451 while on vacation in Martha's Vineyard...

I-Man said...

Dont make I cry CV...

McFearless said...

the franklins of the world are most certainly still buying, reality is the market has gone nowhere now in about 12 months....people have remained exessively bullish that entire time though...another reason all the "too much bearish" sentiment talk really isn't putting things into proper perspective imo.

CV said...

I don't remember George Bush going out and making a microphone statement every time an abortion clinic was to open it's doors...

karen said...

CV.. don't you remember W getting involved with that pull-the-plug situation !!!!!

McFearless said...

how dare you CV, Obama is BETTER than bush...ya heard?

CV said...

the DAILY candle still is working on becoming a shooting star...

or even a gravestone doji (tho not quite)...

karen said...

Far worse than Obama speaking out about the book burnings..

McFearless said...

the pull the plug situation, also not worthy of presidential commentary.... a simple visit to an attorney or to legal zoom and we would have never heard of those folks, but idiots get press.

I-Man said...

They both suck, end of story.

CV said...

@karen

Frankly... With regards to Bush... I was living in Italy for more than 2/3rds of the time he was POTUS...

He was therefore hardly ever on my day to day radar screen...

I missed most of the Clinton years too (was only in the US for 18 months of his first term)...

karen said...

got watermelon? beats popcorn, laughing.. and i'll have enuf juice for a martini tomorrow : )

72bat said...

on the 39-43 fotos..., great stuff!
noted the "African American" titlings
as either superfluous
"African American migratory workers"
(obvious, idn't?)
or irrelevant
"African American's tenant's home"
(a tenant farmer is a tenant farmer)
none of the other fotos i.d.'ed the cultural, ethnic or racial heritage of the americans pictured

CV said...

So I apparently missed a lot of these types of "goings on"...

CV said...

@bat

fotos were great

CV said...

in 60 years, they'll look back on foto ARCHIVES from this period and what will you see...

A bunch of tattooed, body pierced kids with stupid haircuts, and with mobile fones & devices glued to their ears or thumbs...

Then again, there may not BE any fotos...

Everything is digital now... Maybe a large electromagnetic pulse wave will come along and destroy all this data... (including the fotos)...

Wouldn't be such a bad thing to happen IMO...

karen said...

uh-oh.. coming into the last hour.. and from a stronger position..

McFearless said...

e-wave here?

karen said...

Poll question!! Not that there are many of you here today.. Are belly button piercings attractive or unattractive?

McFearless said...

attractive on what kind of body? I can't answer without knowing.

karen said...

this is the bullish view which allows for a down to 1180-1190 http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/

CV said...

@karen

Honestly, I can't say they're generally unattractive... Unless on a GUY I suppose...

CV has no piercings or tattoos, for the record...

I'm not really against them, but it kind of makes me laugh to consider what the justification is to adorn onesself with these things...

It reminds me of when all the kids, back in the 8o's were all dressing up like Madonna (early LIKE A VIRGIN Madonna)...

When asked why... The answer? "To express MY INDIVIDUALITY"...

ROR

Yeah, go ahead and do it to be cool because EVERYONE ELSE is doing it to express your INDIVIDUALITY...

karen said...

Ben, so, in other words, you think they can be attractive. I should have phrased my question better.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Why did you have to mention popcorn? Now I can't get the thought of caramel & cheese popcorn out of my mind.

karen said...

Sorry, AR. imagine how ill you'd feel upon overeating it..

McFearless said...

well, my wife has one (bb piercing)...so yeah, just don't go getting a tattoo on your lower back, never been a huge fan of that look

McFearless said...

yeah, cheese popcorn, that's good stuff right there, I always get one of those tins for the holidays to snack on.

karen said...

so far i've got two votes of attractive, AR? I-Man, Bat? anyone?

CV said...

@Amen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aepyZ7tESU&feature=related

I-Man said...

Beauty is judged from the inside of I and I...

The rest is just a shell.

karen said...

Oh, CV, that was so mean to do to AR..

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