TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 9.8.10

Morning Audibles 9.8.10

Let me re-work an old expression from Cramer...

"There's always a bull market somewhere, & I'm here to find it for you"...

Jim Cramer

On a day like yesterday (and hopefully not today too), I might rework that phrase to something like...

"Sometimes there's a DULL market everywhere, and I can't help avoiding it with you"

Tell me something, during an entire day of trading, and on the first day back after a long holiday weekend, after a long summer, the following are an array of TWEETS which came DIRECTLY from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (the largest open outcry futures market in any city in the galaxy not named Mos Eisley)... Or was that, the largest "wretched hive of scum & villainy"?... I might be mixing metaphors here...

@mrtopstep # futures DEAD HERE 20 locals in the pit NY lunch time no flow at ALL

September 7, 2010 12:41 PM

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/07/mrtopstep-back-to-work-in-september-but-not-many-seem-to-be-back/

September 7, 2010 2:25 PM

gathered from topstep that Tim is looking for spx sub 1000 before going higher..

themosmitsos

[3/3] Now the technical team of this crew is looking for "new lows <1000 before new highs >1127" keep in mind. Traders & Techs disagree

September 7, 2010 3:09 PM

Here's an actual trade idea...

On Tuesday 7th September 2010, @mrtopstep said:

RT @Eubiquitous SPX FUT #1090.20# was 9/03 highs...decent area to cover TLT highs SPY LOWS..this reminds me of the US. DOL trade..have to break the "PAIR"..

September 7, 2010 3:21 PM

Apart from what was going on in the Chicago Merc pits, there was this & this... (within 2 minutes)

- "I can see a move right back to the 1040-1050 area. It's a range bound market until further notice."

- "smells a year end rally, based on a QE2 and extended tax cuts, among other pre-election weaselry."

Which must have been in response to this... (or perhaps penned by the same author)...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39037896

LOL!! "The disparity in the numbers could either mean the market is due for a correction or the recent stock rally will keep going, analysts say."

September 7, 2010 12:25 PM

"I want everyone to know that I was FOR the rally before I was AGAINST it... OMG... I'm in a LURCH here"...

Anyway people... Hopefully things won't stay this way for very much longer... They're in full swing at Flushing Meadows... Tennis Anyone?

OR... If you've GIVEN UP completely, there's always football to entertain you while you sing yourself to sleep...

261 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 261 of 261 Newer› Newest»

McFearless said...: ok, fun little thing, count how many times you will now hear "soft patch" by Saturday morning.

I'm guessing I can get to 500 by then.; September 8, 2010 at 2:28 PM
McFearless said...: you can see five down off today's highs at tiny degree...stopped right at yesterday's highs basically.; September 8, 2010 at 2:30 PM
CV said...: "soft patch"

---

There... I got the party started... we're at #1; September 8, 2010 at 2:31 PM
I-Man said...: Chant down babylon and dem double speak...

Only Jah annoints a true king.; September 8, 2010 at 2:31 PM
CV said...: If it can't get thru the LD to the upside in fairly short order, and it needs to go down for awhile...

Yey if it's TRUE we're in an extended "C" (like Andy's charts)...

Perhaps it'll work by way of an UPPER & LOWER price channel (as illustrated)

NEW CHART IN THREAD; September 8, 2010 at 2:34 PM
McFearless said...: once that C wave starts we'll see my S&P 800's....I'm still not sure though....this B wave could take another month or quite a bit more to complete; September 8, 2010 at 2:37 PM
CV said...: @Mcf

when I say "C", I'm more referring to a smaller count...

A = 1129 (within A)
B = 1040 (within A)
C = wherever (which finishes B)...

Maybe I have the labeling confused... I was going by memory...; September 8, 2010 at 2:42 PM
karen said...: i got stuck on the other side : (; September 8, 2010 at 2:45 PM
McFearless said...: no, that's fine, I don't care about those moves though, damn near impossible lately to time any of them.; September 8, 2010 at 2:46 PM
CV said...: @karen -lol

Not missing much over here... just a little alphabet soup...; September 8, 2010 at 2:48 PM
McFearless said...: 100% write-offs for new equipment as part of this plan! will "help" thousands of businesses.

uhhhh

hey morons....getting new equipment often requires borrowing....small businesses are having an extremely hard time obtaining credit, if they can borrow at all....minor details I suppose.

well thought out; September 8, 2010 at 2:49 PM
McFearless said...: If 100B of the original plan was slated toward infrastucture what the hell good is another $50 billion now going to do.

these guys are so in over their head it's not even funny....potent directors

bitchez; September 8, 2010 at 2:53 PM
AmenRa said...: Why do they always send the market lower when the beige book comes out knowing they were going to push the market higher anyway? Who needs the book anyway? The Fed reports on manufacturing were already in the toilet. Unemployment has been inching higher in each district also.; September 8, 2010 at 2:53 PM
McFearless said...: hehe:

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/companynews-18928726/president-s-new-plan-21800438#video=21802515; September 8, 2010 at 2:57 PM
CV said...: Kaos Agent: What do you propose to do?

Maxwell Smart: "My programs will create or save 3-4 MILLION jobs"...

Kaos Agent: I find that hard to believe

Maxwell Smart Would you believe "help THOUSANDS of businesses"?

Kaos Agent: No

Maxwell Smart: "How about a boy scout troop and a couple of cub scouts?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuI4kfiRyGM; September 8, 2010 at 2:58 PM
McFearless said...: retraced almost exactly 61.8 of the move from today's highs to the recent low at ~ 1096 and change....we'll see, I never get too caught up in squiggles this small.; September 8, 2010 at 2:59 PM
karen said...: Ben, you didn't seriously expect ME to watch Cramer, did you.. i can only last a few seconds at a time.. he seems nucking futs to me, honestly.; September 8, 2010 at 3:04 PM
McFearless said...: consumer credit -3.6 bil, and while everyone hypes that as being not so bad, since it's nowhere near the size of the April contraction i'd state that:

1. it will get revised

and

2. it's about 3 x the size of last months contraction....the monthlies have noise, the trend has not changed....but last I checked, this is exactly what the Fed's policies were going to "stop"...yes?; September 8, 2010 at 3:06 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

he is nuts, but he expresses the views of all the bulls quite well and he's a huge public figure.

I just liked the very start, he was so excited to tell her he was "not worried at all" that he wouldn't even let her finish her opening remarks.

he's just THAT bullish.

oh, and go get that yield....this is like investment mistake 101 grasping for yield.; September 8, 2010 at 3:07 PM
karen said...: i swear put dia or spy up on a ten min chart.. there is no difference.; September 8, 2010 at 3:11 PM
McFearless said...: don't people remember what bank preferreds were paying in early 2008?

anyone?

bueller?; September 8, 2010 at 3:11 PM
karen said...: ben.. if you give me a symbol i can look it up..; September 8, 2010 at 3:14 PM
CV said...: bucky quietly retracing some of what it left behind this morning...; September 8, 2010 at 3:19 PM
McFearless said...: I won't put you through it, I already know what they were paying, I have these awesome Richard Lehman income securities newsletters to review from the period.; September 8, 2010 at 3:21 PM
CV said...: @mcF

I can remember that bank dividends in early 2008 acted like they were dry bulk shippers...; September 8, 2010 at 3:21 PM
karen said...: for instance.. in 08.. BAC.PR.X was paying 44 cents /quarter.. still is.
near 7% yield.; September 8, 2010 at 3:22 PM
karen said...: zerohedge

FT reports that Goldman is facing a large fraud fine in the UK; September 8, 2010 at 3:23 PM
CV said...: let me guess the first comment...

"handcuffs bitchez"; September 8, 2010 at 3:26 PM
karen said...: uup back at 23.97 !! still down form yesterday tho : (; September 8, 2010 at 3:41 PM
McFearless said...: From KD:

"Next time you hear people talking about "consumer deleveraging" you might politely ask them "where?"

Oh sure, when it comes to credit cards consumers have cut back exposure, and continue to. But in non-credit-card exposure - all the other places that matter, whether it be auto loans, HELOCs, mortgages - there has been very little deleveraging at all."

my one word phrase response is

Duh.

we are still doing 95% LTV mortgages, and on and on, the whole response to credit collapse was pile on more credit, it'll make it so much worse when we do actually delever, which we most certainly will.; September 8, 2010 at 3:43 PM
karen said...: UBS analysts downgraded both Hewlett Packard (HPQ) and Intel (INTC) from Buy to Neutral this morning. The overall market is having a strong day on the upside, but the downgrades have caused both HPQ and INTL to sell off.

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/8/intc-hpq-downgraded.html; September 8, 2010 at 3:43 PM
CV said...: @karen

So what was the story with that AAPL owner from the pizza gig last night?; September 8, 2010 at 3:43 PM
karen said...: this is what she gets for wasting those watermelons!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pgZ8adAZ_0&feature=player_embedded#!; September 8, 2010 at 3:45 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

are you in San Clemente? One of my wife's cousins lives there, he's a bodyguard for someone's ex wife and daughter.; September 8, 2010 at 3:46 PM
karen said...: Hey, that watermelon vid was from Kid Dynamite and onlooker was the commenter !!

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=14963913&postID=8822175172054487412; September 8, 2010 at 3:47 PM
karen said...: Ben! am I in San Clemente?! can't believe you are asking that.

My AAPL friend "is not trying to time the market" LOL.. just want's his aapl shares.. for ever..

hey, remember that hilarious video I posted the other day ?? I think it was a take off of old MTV show...; September 8, 2010 at 3:49 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-pitches-road-spending-rb-1311493025.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

Obama: U.S. can't afford to extend tax cuts for rich

...Have I told all you bubbas and bubbettes my homily about the wealthy and the Carter era? If I have I will skip a retelling...; September 8, 2010 at 3:50 PM
karen said...: that watermelon vid is going viral.. laughing laughing..

http://dealbreaker.com/2010/09/yet-another-reason-to-take-out-facial-default-swaps/; September 8, 2010 at 3:51 PM
McFearless said...: oh, and to be clear, that was nothing against KD, he's saying the same thing I am.; September 8, 2010 at 3:52 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

I thought you were, I had the California part down.

I wish they would stop saying tax cuts for the rich....I'm sorry but I just don't think making $250k per year makes you rich. Your income alone never makes you rich, in fact, you just have a high income.; September 8, 2010 at 3:54 PM
McFearless said...: I just watched the watermelon video for the first time, wow, I'm ror-ing.

I can't feel my face.....hahahahaha

that's what she said....literally.; September 8, 2010 at 3:56 PM
McFearless said...: I wish I had video of me taking a spill on the big rocks off the lake in Ohio after I caught a fish, i went down hard, laughed after I fell, I have a bruise on the back of my left thigh that pretty much covers my entire leg, i thought about making it my avatar but it's too gross.; September 8, 2010 at 3:57 PM
karen said...: Ben, my back wall is the border between San Diego County and Orange County, too : ); September 8, 2010 at 3:58 PM
McFearless said...: well, this close should add to tomorrow's claims drama, nothing is revealed today.; September 8, 2010 at 3:59 PM
CV said...: OK now I'm gonna have to watch it...; September 8, 2010 at 4:00 PM
karen said...: Ben, with that you just reminded me of your aluminum bat story.. are you accident prone?!; September 8, 2010 at 4:00 PM
mcHAPPY said...: While I am sure to be proven wrong, the more I look at it the more like the LD for the move from 1129-1039.

There are a variety of reasons including cycle work from Prechter in April EWT, EW rules, Bucky's recent move, headlines saying essentially, "don't worry, buy stocks", the constant harping of bulls about PE's being cheap when the PE's are based upon future earnings, number of analysts still looking for 1300, Europe.

As for the lastest move, I think yesterday's lows was the completion of minuette 4 within c of minute ii of minor 3. Looking for 15 points off 1091 where 5=1 after an extended 3rd.

Just what I'm feeling. A drop below 1091 or a breakout beyond 1110 will cause me to never mention this again and a break of 1129.24 will cause me to pick up Neely's book much much sooner rather than later.; September 8, 2010 at 4:01 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

lets just leave it at the fact that I've had well over 500 stitches in my life, and I'm not quite 30 yet.; September 8, 2010 at 4:02 PM
McFearless said...: My mom has the picture of the egg on my head from the bat episode, next time I go home to visit I'll get a copy and post it here. it's a great picture.; September 8, 2010 at 4:03 PM
McFearless said...: to be fair though, about 285 of those came from one injury.; September 8, 2010 at 4:03 PM
mcHAPPY said...: As for reasons I went with what came to my mind first but the continuing deleveraging of debt, lack of desire for stimulus, lack of will/ability to borrow, jobs are still north of 450K each month.

I'm sure other reasons will come to me later but essentially the 'new normal' is going to hit the 'old wall' at some point - I just wish I knew when.; September 8, 2010 at 4:11 PM
CV said...: @McF

500 stitches?

Your new nickname is "McFRANKENSTEIN"

Later traders... off 2 the gym...; September 8, 2010 at 4:13 PM
McFearless said...: yeah, I've got a lot of scars, nothing on the face luckily, the biggest two are on my right arm, nasty break playing basketball, two surgeries. 4 total breaks in one fall.; September 8, 2010 at 4:20 PM
I-Man said...: @ B22
Damn bro... you're reckless! Into motocross? Skateboarding?

I-Man had a up day, but not an UP day... 2 stupid mistakes turned a decent day to a mediocre day.

To disclose, because there are lessons here for traders...

Mistake One:

Chillin... mindin I business... stalking what appears to be a simple afternoon dip buy near the heartbeat of the trend... hoping to catch a 10er...
Then,
"Why are volumes drying up all of a sudden??? (As sometimes happens imminently before a nice continuation move...) BAM! wtf was that??? Oh shit... BEIGE BOOK. (F you, Fed... release that shit after the bell next time please.)

In the process, order filled, full 7 tick stop and an extra one clipped in the blink of an eye...

Lesson: Pay attention sucka. (Whats sad is that I actually did check the eco calendar this morning... so ashamed.) Inexcusable, really. Theres enough shit out of left field that isnt preannounced to be caught off guard by what is...

Mistake 2:

Errant click of the mouse when switching chart windows just happens to hit "market bid" unbeknwonst to I and I... all of a sudden P&L starts flickering but I dont "think" I have a trade on...DOH!

Caught that one down 6 ticks (with NO stop)... ouch.

So yeah...

2 mistakes, 14 ticks, a decent day turns to a mediocre one.

Lessons learned.

Good to be back trading tho... just had to take a break to remember why I trade.; September 8, 2010 at 4:25 PM
McFearless said...: I used to ride a lot of bmx back when I was younger so crashing was just part of the deal, same with rollerblades, never did skateboard though, you get stitches and go back to riding, I also used to be a bit of a stunt junkie, so if we found a bridge with some deep water below....well, i'd jump off that thing just to see what it was like, a few nasty sports injuries like a torn ACL and a nasty broken arm and they all add up pretty quick.

one time I went to stretch my leg in the shower after an XC race and I nailed my foot at the bottom of the water faucet...right on the outside of my foot by that little bone another 5 stitches there, another funny one was I was on a neighbors deck after swimming when I was maybe in the 5th grade, got a huge sliver through the bottom of my foot went in one area and came out pretty far on the other side, dr. couldn't pull it out so they had to cut it open to get it....more stitches.

alright, this is probably making everyone sick, so that's it....; September 8, 2010 at 4:37 PM
McFearless said...: I,

props for even going for it in this mess man, it would seem to me that any day you came out even or ahead the last few months was a win for a day trader.; September 8, 2010 at 4:39 PM
I-Man said...: Ha! Not if you cant pay the bills...

Perfection is the goal, regardless of how attainable.; September 8, 2010 at 4:50 PM
I-Man said...: I long for the days of quiet grinding uptrend that used to be so annoying...; September 8, 2010 at 4:51 PM
McFearless said...: lol, right, bills....minor details and such.

I'm off to some meetings, catch you all later tonight.; September 8, 2010 at 4:58 PM
karen said...: i'm going too.. but interesting daily candles to look at: $crb, fxa, mcd, and c.; September 8, 2010 at 5:08 PM
wunsacon said...: >> I'm sorry but I just don't think making $250k per year makes you rich.

McF, please. The tax rate doesn't jump to 90% on the first $1,000 above $250k. If you're making $250k, $350k or $500k, the increased tax on the amount over $250k is not going to kill you.

It's not even going to kill people making $10m+/year. Instead of putting their money into art, a Bugatti, or whatever, they'll have to contribute more of it back to the rest of us.; September 8, 2010 at 9:13 PM

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Morning Audibles 9.8.10

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