Morning Audibles - 9.17.10 - Interview with Peter Orszag

Posted by CV on Thursday, September 16, 2010 /
Fascinating Interview of Peter Orszag on Charlie Rose (9.15.10)...



If you'd like to view a FULLER & RICHER view of this... Here's the link:

291 comments:

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I-Man said...

Autumnal Equinox 2010 is 9/23, 03:09 UTC just for clarification...

9/23 also a full moon this year...

September 17, 2010 at 2:27 PM
McFearless said...

C,

keep an eye on BA as well, trades fairly similar to CAT and man do I think both of those stocks are price-eeee

September 17, 2010 at 2:28 PM
McFearless said...

thanks for that I, can't believe I left off the Full moon too....slacker.

September 17, 2010 at 2:28 PM
CV said...

@karen

Only thing is... (on CAT)...

What might BOTHER me here is if you go back and look, say, 24 years, on MONTHLY charts on CAT...

It just doesn't seem to me that the monthly candles (or monthly closes)... stack up in an orderly way...

That makes me suspicious...

September 17, 2010 at 2:31 PM
CV said...

Also...

I'd bet if AmenRa put up a 3lb MONTHLY chart for CAT...

It would still be in the "hold your horses" department (LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE)...

September 17, 2010 at 2:34 PM
karen said...

McHappy, what joke?

Ben, looked at BA earlier when I read they got a new order from russia...

September 17, 2010 at 2:34 PM
I-Man said...

Wonder if somebody is writing a shitload of ATM calls to folks hoping to catch a rip into the close...

Then they pull the rug out from under em for a little opex sport.

September 17, 2010 at 2:34 PM
CV said...

Basically...

I can see a $75 handle on that, no sweat... just to eff with short term traders looking to call a top...

September 17, 2010 at 2:35 PM
mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

Triangles are no longer all I see. I'm seeing five waves down like you said, five up, three down, five up, and what appears to be another five up in progress.

Basically - five down and a zig zag in progress with a and b complete.

Should be fun to see what happens around 1128-1129.

September 17, 2010 at 2:38 PM
mcHAPPY said...

K

What is the difference between Iceland and Ireland?

September 17, 2010 at 2:42 PM
CV said...

@McHappy

I'm not seeing TRIANGLES... (only because I don't "see" things unless they are blatantly obvious)...

But I get your point...

My sense is that, notwithstanding the suspense... This is far from over...

Not PRICEWISE... but TIMEWISE...

I'm seeing another week or so of "jerk-off"...

May start to see some more VOLATILITY tho... IOW - we'll start seeing some IMPULSE moves back and forth that get the itchy fingers to start making a committment...

Could see this until I-Man's b-day (& bens)...

---

OK... Now CV's nebulous, wishy washy, half baked, take ALL SIDES, Doug Kass moment is over...

LOL

September 17, 2010 at 2:43 PM
CV said...

@mchappy (2:42)

Answer: R&C

September 17, 2010 at 2:43 PM
mcHAPPY said...

CV,

That as the joke I told Karen I thought was funny. Was it Karen who wrote it? I'm too lazy to go back and scroll through.

Don't forget the two years either! i.e. bank implosion.

September 17, 2010 at 2:46 PM
mcHAPPY said...

I'm looking for 1129.38. A close over 1130 but below 1131 will certainly F*CK with the most number of people possible.

September 17, 2010 at 2:47 PM
McFearless said...

@karen,

they just sold some planes to China....at a discount.

@McHappy,

I can count it as a five on the DOW and S&P but not on every index, so I'm skeptical and if I look at a lot of the international indexes none of them scream sell just yet either.

keeping it simple as the squiggles are damn near impossible right now....i didn't see enough selling pressure in the 1120 region today to get happy on the short side yet, we are close but I have to be prepared for us just to have done the kick off of some fifth wave, this could also be some sort of terminal wave....in the short term I really just don't know still, so until then, cash is king.

September 17, 2010 at 2:48 PM
CV said...

@Amen

Ra - in your spare time...

Could you do a MONTHLY 3LB scenario on CAT... Then post it on your blogsite...

amenras3lb.blogspot.com

Then - link that here?

I'd like that... (& I'm certain others would too)...

September 17, 2010 at 2:48 PM
mcHAPPY said...

CNBC is telling us how to beat the machines! Thank you, CNBC!

http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/39153002

September 17, 2010 at 2:49 PM
karen said...

McHappy.. yes, it was me.. got it from Twitter! but it seems a million years ago now so I had forgotten all about it.. laughing..

but beginning to hate this tape!

September 17, 2010 at 2:49 PM
mcHAPPY said...

@Ben

Another Magic Monday would certainly lull the bulls to sleep. 1140-1160 is most definitely possible but so is a completion here. I'm back to work now so I"m a little slow on the counting and charting during the day.

September 17, 2010 at 2:51 PM
CV said...

@mcF

"and if I look at a lot of the international indexes none of them scream sell just yet either..."

On that note...

Did you see your boy MAXCHERRY's chart on the DAX?

It was interesting...

Also...

We're coming onto an hour into the close... Don't forget that Europe closed DOWN today...

Dax (- 0.64%)
Ftse (-0.57%)
STOXX 50 (0.98%)

Many US closes, recently have followed a similar pattern to Europe closes... stay tuned...

September 17, 2010 at 2:53 PM
CV said...

stoxx 50 (-0.98%)

September 17, 2010 at 2:53 PM
karen said...

Friday, September 17th, 2010, 1:49 pm
Royal Bank of Scotland analysts foresee "significant and perhaps insurmountable" challenges for investors trying to force the trustee of $26 billion of non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities issued by Countrywide Financial Corp. to repurchase the mortgages.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/17/rbs-analysts-see-insurmountable-obstacles-facing-investors-of-countrywide-mbs

September 17, 2010 at 2:55 PM
karen said...

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/unusual-recent-moves-with-stocks-oil-and-vix/

September 17, 2010 at 2:58 PM
McFearless said...

McHappy,
dude, I thought I told you to quit that job so you could chart more?

haha, j/k.

we'll see, bearish as I tend to be in the bigger picture, I think there is too high a probability to ignore saying we could fairly easily see that 1150-1160 range.

it would be great to see it blow up there on some really good "news"....lets hope it plays out that way, ton of housinig data next week to help provide the percieved "catalyst"

September 17, 2010 at 3:02 PM
karen said...

SEC proposes more short-term borrowing disclosuresFont size: A | A | A
2:55 PM ET 9/17/10 | Marketwatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Public companies would be required to disclose more information about short-term borrowing arrangements under proposed rules approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday. Companies would have to disclose information including outstanding amounts at the end of a reporting period, and the average amount outstanding during the period. Financial and non-financial companies would be subject to different disclosure requirements, the SEC said.

September 17, 2010 at 3:03 PM
McFearless said...

C,

nah, I haven't really been over to Dan's yet today, too much going on.

Dax seems to have some good fractals going on.

September 17, 2010 at 3:03 PM
72bat said...

cv -
well, yes, i am a greedy sob and i would have cashed out above 81, but had to step out for a couple of hours at lunch and missed that spike (didn't set a limit order). kudos to karen.

September 17, 2010 at 3:07 PM
CV said...

@McF

All you WAVE EXPERTS...

Go ahead and make some sense out of this chart...

DAX

NEW CHART IN THREAD

September 17, 2010 at 3:07 PM
mcHAPPY said...

For the impulsive folks:
1129.38 is where possible a=c and the .618 retrace of 1131.47-1122.43 is 1128.02.
Also in doing some channeling, what was support now appears to be resistance on the 15 minutes charts and there is that triangle of course (which one you ask? lol).

For the corrective folks:
These are the levels I'm seeing that if each gets broke, look out:
1118.88
1114.63
1105.10
and of course, 1040 lol.

There are so many gaps on the way down, it could really be ugly going down. But I can forget about that gap above at 1200.

September 17, 2010 at 3:10 PM
McFearless said...

CV,

I finally got around to responding to that e-mail about the safe harbor IRA.

September 17, 2010 at 3:11 PM
Jennifer said...

CV -- I think you may turn out to have been very prescient in your comps to the Europe close.

September 17, 2010 at 3:11 PM
McFearless said...

yeah, that's all there are is gaps on the way down,

I really think this morning looked more like an exhaustion gap...but time will tell

September 17, 2010 at 3:14 PM
CV said...

@Jennifer

It would make sense... Especially in AMEN's world...

A half percent decline on the major indices would take the SPX to somewhere hugging the 1121 level...

the 50% between 666 and 1576...

Where else would we be... except INDECISION?

September 17, 2010 at 3:16 PM
mcHAPPY said...

@Ben 3:02

Unfortunately the job is a necessity at this stage in life. But another 2 years and I will be 100% debt free. Oh yeah, not sure if I mentioned it but I sold one of the rentals. Didn't get the $100K I was hoping but close enough. Canadians still don't get it. I guess if you listen to the propoganda enough or enough people tell you how great your banks are (or how beautiful, awesome, intelligent, funny, etc.) eventually you believe it - fools.

For a perfect example, see Mish on Canadian banks.

Also keep in mind my wife and I got $1.05M in mortgages on a combined $75K salary at the time. Salary has since more than doubled but that is not the point.

September 17, 2010 at 3:18 PM
CV said...

@Jennifer

Plus - it would be a 10 handle move off of todays high...

I'm sure topstep would like that...

September 17, 2010 at 3:21 PM
mcHAPPY said...

For the corrective folks:

a would equal c at 1118.53 if 1131.47 was not the end of this rise.

September 17, 2010 at 3:21 PM
McFearless said...

totally kidding about the job, I would never tell someone to quit their job and trade markets....especially right now

September 17, 2010 at 3:25 PM
karen said...

alaidi

Ireland a fundamental confirmation of the 1130 $SPX failure #forex $$

September 17, 2010 at 3:26 PM
I-Man said...

@ McF 3:25

Thanks...

September 17, 2010 at 3:28 PM
I-Man said...

:P

September 17, 2010 at 3:28 PM
karen said...

I-Man.. LOL!!

September 17, 2010 at 3:28 PM
CV said...

@mchappy

pretty close to yesterdays low

September 17, 2010 at 3:28 PM
Jennifer said...

My trading went south big time right around the time I started considering whether or not I could support the family with it.

September 17, 2010 at 3:29 PM
Jennifer said...

I'll be lucky if I can support my subscription services at this rate.

September 17, 2010 at 3:29 PM
McFearless said...

lol I, unless they wanted to of course, but you know as well as I do, it's tough sledding and there isn't any way around that, just not sure it'd be good advice for the vast majority of people.

September 17, 2010 at 3:30 PM
CV said...

I-Man isn't human...

He's a quinoa eating algo...

He gets a pass...

September 17, 2010 at 3:30 PM
mcHAPPY said...

for sure on the job. My job is also quite secure and a great one at that. Next to trading for a living, I can't think of anything else I'd rather do.

September 17, 2010 at 3:31 PM
CV said...

"My trading went south big time right around the time I started considering whether or not I could support the family with it..."

---

Well, you got me there...

My trading went south big time right around the time I started trading... lol

September 17, 2010 at 3:32 PM
mcHAPPY said...

@CV

That DAX is a good chart. I have to get going again but taking a quick look I'd have to say an irregular top is in play there and might provide further evidence that the wavers calling the 'top' at April 26 are wrong and the A-B-C is correct.

But seriously, WTF do I know?

Have a great weekend everyone.

September 17, 2010 at 3:36 PM
karen said...

I'm back to the edge of my seat..

September 17, 2010 at 3:40 PM
CV said...

@mchappy

well we all know that all we need to do is spot "THE TELL"...

It's that easy...

You'd have made a fortune trading the crude markets this week if you'd only have know how to spot the famous "TELL"...

September 17, 2010 at 3:40 PM
72bat said...

mchappy -
"I can't think of anything else I'd rather do."
so, with that, if you are in the location you really want to be most of all, you have the best of all possible worlds. good on you, mate.

September 17, 2010 at 3:41 PM
karen said...

For Jenn and Ben:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/bookkeeping-stopped-out-of-caterpillar.html

September 17, 2010 at 3:43 PM
karen said...

is the spx a little twitchy or is it just me ?

September 17, 2010 at 3:46 PM
CV said...

OMG -

We have a "Bennifer" on this blog?

ROR

September 17, 2010 at 3:46 PM
karen said...

more on the possible new banking disclosures:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SEC-backs-new-rules-on-bank-apf-3273922459.html?x=0

September 17, 2010 at 3:47 PM
karen said...

what an odd couple they were!

September 17, 2010 at 3:48 PM
I-Man said...

WTF???

http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/sep/16/vancouver-police-say-acid-attack-hoax-source-says/


Who does that?

September 17, 2010 at 3:48 PM
karen said...

BloombergTV

On #BloombergTV - Paul Miller, analyst at FBR Capital Markets, Says Banks Are `Afraid' of Warren, Consumer Board: Video http://ow.ly/2G0XD

September 17, 2010 at 3:48 PM
Jennifer said...

Thanks Karen -- good to know I'm not alone!

September 17, 2010 at 3:49 PM
karen said...

Moody's Investors Service issued another slew of ratings changes yesterday afternoon and earlier today, downgrading tens of billions of dollars of Alt-A and subprime residential-mortgage backed securities.

The lower ratings are due to the rapidly deteriorating performance of the mortgage pools that back the securities, in conjunction with macroeconomic conditions that remain 
under duress, according to Moody's. In February, the ratings agency updated the loss expectations on Alt-A and subprime pools issued in 2005 to 2007.

Of the 2005 vintage alone, Moody's rates more than 5,600 tranches of MBS and has adjusted ratings on nearly 2,000 tranches already this year with another 119 on review for possible downgrade.

Moody's also now expects housing prices to continue to fall until the third quarter of 2011, analysts said in the most-recent ResiLandscape report from the firm's structured finance group. The agency previously expected housing prices to stabilize in the first quarter of next year.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/17/moodys-downgrades-billions-in-rmbs-more-to-come

September 17, 2010 at 3:50 PM
CV said...

CV was bored silly last night, and stumbled across the movie "Forgetting Sarah Marshall"...

now CV has a total crush on Mila Kunis...

September 17, 2010 at 3:50 PM
AmenRa said...

No Corner today. Have to leave. 1127.11 is holding :-)

September 17, 2010 at 3:51 PM
karen said...

carleygarner

According to COT, large speculators in stock index futures added to their short positions.

September 17, 2010 at 3:51 PM
72bat said...

sold dto @80.10 (grating teeth at missed $1.40)

September 17, 2010 at 3:51 PM
karen said...

AR.. hope you are leaving for something fun!! all i know is TGIF..

September 17, 2010 at 3:52 PM
CV said...

http://scifibloggers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/Mila-Kunis-Portrait.jpg

September 17, 2010 at 3:52 PM
karen said...

oh, bat.. I'm holding out for better than 81.51 on my next sell : )

September 17, 2010 at 3:53 PM
CV said...

@Amen (3:51)

No problem...

I'll leave this thread open...

Then fill with NFL picks tomorrow AM...

September 17, 2010 at 3:53 PM
I-Man said...

She's foine.

September 17, 2010 at 3:54 PM
72bat said...

mila kunis? oh, so that's what became of jackie burkhart

September 17, 2010 at 3:55 PM
CV said...

@I-Man

She looks a little like my ex-girlfriend "Laura" in Italy...

another foto:

http://cdn.screenjunkies.com/www/sites/default/files/images/2009/mila_kunis_ball_small.jpg

September 17, 2010 at 3:56 PM
karen said...

i'm really not a fan: http://gossipteen.com/tag/mila-kunis-pictures/

September 17, 2010 at 3:56 PM
72bat said...

k -
it was such a small position, no point in selling just part. going into the weekend, just took what gain i had off the table. now, had i doubled up below 72 last week - grrrr!

September 17, 2010 at 3:57 PM
CV said...

@karen

on her BAD days, that's what laura was like... lol

September 17, 2010 at 3:58 PM
CV said...

If I have the time...

I'll do a MILA/LAURA avatar over the weekend...

September 17, 2010 at 4:01 PM
karen said...

you will definitely sleep better bat!

September 17, 2010 at 4:03 PM
72bat said...

especially if i can locate some sincerity at post-off pricing ;^)

September 17, 2010 at 4:05 PM
CV said...

I gotta go...

This THREAD is going to stay open until tomorrow morning...

DUE TO AMEN RA constraints...

CV

September 17, 2010 at 4:07 PM
karen said...

i gotta go too! thanks everyone.

September 17, 2010 at 4:08 PM
I-Man said...

Later yall

September 17, 2010 at 4:09 PM
I-Man said...

Magnify Jah.

September 17, 2010 at 4:10 PM
McFearless said...

yeah, dude, Jackie from That 70's show (awesome show)

September 17, 2010 at 4:23 PM
Ben22 said...

I gotta think we are going to gap up again to start the week, of for no other reason, it's because, that's how the market is now.

can't wait till next week, while I'm looking forward to some foosball this weekend, I'm already thinking....


is it Monday yet?

September 17, 2010 at 4:51 PM
Nic said...

I had to google snuggie.

September 17, 2010 at 5:18 PM
mcHAPPY said...

@Ben 4:51

I can almost guarantee we gap up because

*drum roll*

WE HAVE ANOTHER TRIANGLE!

And, from my view, it is bullish!

September 17, 2010 at 6:07 PM
Nic said...

McHappy remember June quad witch? We had big jumps in Sunday asia / Monday London and then we fell for a couple of weeks

September 17, 2010 at 6:24 PM
Nic said...

Some juicy links I am reading tonight:

Ireland "perilously" close to calling in the IMFs

Prag Cap:

PRECHTER CALLS THIS THE BIGGEST BEAR MARKET IN 300 YEARS?


Doug Kass - This is exactly what you want to see if you are bearish

September 17, 2010 at 6:30 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...

Great day in the mountains. I will post some new pictures Monday of a beautiful little river we hiked today.

Obama is between a rock and a hard place. Pelosi is claiming the tax cuts as Obama's and frankly as a fiscal conservative, I'm not sure they should be continued. So Barry may be more "conservative" here than I am...


Life is stranger than we know...

September 17, 2010 at 9:02 PM
Ben22 said...

Watched the Kass video, color me confused about several things:

1. There have been at least two articles written over at the street.com in the last two months alone regarding the fact that he "doesn't use technical analysis" , so WTF was he talking about?

2. What exactly is his message? Not one month ago he claimed the market had put in it's bottom for the year, if that were in fact the case, why would he be shorting? Wouldn't the proper strategy be to accumulate on the long side with drops? I realize a lot of monkeys on the web think the goal in trading or investing is to get every directional change exactly correct, but reality is you just want to trade with the trend.

Last but not least, gotta love Steve Grasso once again telling a guest that is bearish that they can say "whatever they want" but the market is going higher....please, I'm not even going to bother linking the video of him from April, what's the deal with that guy?

September 18, 2010 at 10:57 AM
Ben22 said...

got around to reading the PragCap article as well, nothing new there from Bobby, we'll see. Right now though, his P3 scenario just needs to go on the back burner, there is nothing in the charts saying that is happening right now or that it is "coming soon"

Either way, the comments on any article about Prechter are always hilarious, inevitably you'll get people that know all about his calls, and then they rattle them off, all of which are completely wrong and nowhere near reality, like the person claiming in 2008 he said to buy gold because of inflation and was "wrong like Peter Schiff".....sorry, Prechter himself would laugh his ass off at that assertion, he's in the deflation camp, in case after 15 years of calling for that still wasn't clear, and for the record, the last time EWI was really pounding the table about buying gold it was when it was $200 something an ounce....real terrible call there though right?

September 18, 2010 at 11:08 AM
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