AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Creditcane™: I'm huffing and I'm puffing. Maybe I should create an algo to do this for me.



SPX
Bullish short day. Could not escape yesterdays upper shadow. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1104.51). QE2infinity.



DXY
Gravestone doji day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 50% retrace (but failed its weekly 3LB mid). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.40).



VIX
Bearish short day (but closed higher). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bearish thrusting day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1249.00).



JNK
Spinning top day. Barely avoided the evening star confirmation. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 76.4% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.46).



10YR YIELD
Dragonfly doji day (did not want to go higher). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has been holding. Back above the 14.6% retrace (26.94) and below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.99).



AUDJPY
Bullish long day. Now above its 50.0% retrace. Tested and failed the 61.8% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.8043).



YEN (FXY)
Doji day. Back below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). New gap is resistance for BoJ. Closed below its 23.6% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 119.13).



CRB
Dragonfly doji day (plus formed a bearish harami). Held the 85.4% retrace at 277.70. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 274.27).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish short day. Another evening star implodes. Holding above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4401.18). Trending up on the daily 3LB.




32 comments:

mcHAPPY said...

Bring on 1140-1150. Maybe where this latest triangle meets will actually mean something to the downside. 1151.41 is the .618 retrace of the 1219-1040 decline. I have the LATEST triangle ending just before this level.

Shoot me.

CV said...

Head scratcher VIX...

Head scratcher EVERYTHING... Can I borrow one of those blades to do the scratching?

I'm fresh out of "throwing stars"...

CV said...

@McHappy

If you stare at the S&P long enough, what you'll realize it that it's forming the BORATE POLYMERIZATION pattern...

http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/36/2636-004-9B257D95.gif

AmenRa said...

CV

the B2O4?

CV said...

@Amen

All kinds of great uses for boron...

Because of its high neutron cross-section, boron-10 is often used to control fission in nuclear reactors - like equity markets as a neutron-capturing substance...

AmenRa said...

I'm still looking for the miners and currency traders who are being carried out on stretchers.


Oh and since today is the anniversary of Lehmans collapse, the market HAD to close higher. Imagine if the market closed much lower aka Lehman II. Circuit breakers would trigger as soon as trading was allowed to restart.

AmenRa said...

Ashraf Laidi on the yen intervention: http://watch.bnn.ca/clip348368#clip348368

Anonymous said...

Swiss intervention tonight?

McFearless said...

Ra,

Thanks for the link man, so Japan is 0 for their last 168 on intervention, at least they are consistent.... and yet all I read pretty much every day is how the Fed, doesn't matter which Fed, is going to "control" the market through intervention or back door operations.


sorry, but after 0 for 168 and I have to say....odds aren't exactly in the favor of the people making such claims, but it just sounds so compelling doesn't it.

check out this paper from earlier this year:

http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24781

anyone that has done any study of the 30's is having some serious deja vu this week, but especially since last night.

Andy T said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andy T said...

Don't normally post minutiae like this, but this is a funny guy and good sports interview:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yf0j1rmZVbM

at the 5:20 mark:

What did you get the fine for? "I don't know...too much awesome on my feet."

CV said...

@Andy

LOL - I remember watching that interview live...

I was like WTF?... But then remembered it was Brian Wilson and it all seemed normal...

Gotta love the Gordon Gekko fone...

Andy T said...

Can almost feel a "bull trap" coming on the S&P....

I'm 90% certain we're going to break 1131...maybe get as high as 1160..then, it'll be over. This is going to be fantastic.

AmenRa said...

Andy T

It better happen by Friday because markets have been very weak the week after opex.

AmenRa said...

Damn. Yen is already trading higher. So much for intervention. That makes them 0 for 169.

CV said...

They should have known better and stopped at 161.8...

McFearless said...

this was an interesting post, markets are figuring this out in real time:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/empire-state-manufacturing-activity.html

McFearless said...

maybe 170 will be the magic number, they should start an intervention clock below the debt clock.

McFearless said...

AT,

6 standard deviations eh?

lol

black swan fantasy.

Busting Out said...

b22-

checked out the Rockefeller video-

intriguing

mcHAPPY said...

CV

I made my comment and went off looking at the charts from an hour and 2 hour perspective. You follow up to me is so appropriate, it is unreal, and at this moment very true.

So here is what I have been seeing (all of these are working off the leading diagonal premise - the question is is it 1/impulsive or A/corrective - from APril 26-May 24):

1) a double three (flat-zigzag-zigzag) for WXY that is not near concluding with a completed in the zigzag with b and c to go. I would expect minimum 1150 here.

2) a double three (zigzag-zigzag-running triangle) for WXY with the first zigzag in to June 3rd (I don't like the look of the zigzag, feels like I'm forcing it as proposed c barely extends beyond a). The running triangle starts off June 8th. I can count 7 waves complete from May 24-today's close. For this to be accurate, we would have to start down VERY soon. This option is interesting because the proposed a of the running triangle runs 89.06 points, b is nearly 1.382 (123.08) of a at 1010.91 and meets it if you use the futures. c nearly equals b. d is nearly equal to a at 89.41 points. Now we have a possible e wave that is equal to a and d in the 128 range with again, you guessed it 89 points. All of this is fibo-rrific but I haven't a sweet f*cking clue what it means.

3) There is still a possiblility it could subdivide or it already has subdivided in to a triple three WXYXZ (flat-X-zigzag-X-???).

FYI - There has never been a known expanding triangle in a combination. (I learned that tonight)

As for if all this off May 24 is a ii or B, for a trader in the intermediate term, it really wouldn't matter. We should get to the lower part of 900 or 800's if it is a 3 or C. On any bounce we would get our answer with a daily close above 1040.78.

For those of us hoping the move off 1219 is impulsive (me! me! me!), if wave iv started at 1173 of minor 1, then we can expect minor 2 to end around that same level. It is interesting that the .786 retracement is 1180.

I know one thing, I have learned a hell of a lot in recent weeks/months and it is certainly opening my eyes to alternatives in counts - especially factoring in the fibo's.

EWP certainly has passages that support all sorts of scenarios right now:

"B waves are phonies"

"If the analyst can easily say to himself, "there is soemthing wrong witht his market," chances are its a B wave."

"...At this point investors are throroughly convinced that the bear (*bull for us) market is back to stay. Second waves often end on low volume and volatility, indicating a drying up of selling pressure."

"E waves in triangles appear to most market observers to be the dramatic kickoff of a new downtrend (*uptrend for us) after a top (*bottom for us) has been built. They almost always are accompanied by strongly supportive news. That, in conjunction with the tendency of E waves to stage a false breakdown trhough the triangle boundary line, intensifites the bearish conviction of market participants at precisely the time that they should be preparing for a substantial move in the opposite direction. Thus, E waves, being ending waves, are attended by a pyschology as emotional as that of fifth waves."

(*I will be extremely pissed if blogger eats this post!*)

mcHAPPY said...

FYI - I've been working on this stuff all night since my last post in between tummy time for the lil one and diapering changing and feedings while Mrs. mcHAPPY went to the gym - 'Daddy Waving School' in session - lol.

mcHAPPY said...

@Andy 8:09

BTE jobs for those seeking a 'reason' why from the 'media'?

mcHAPPY said...

Interesting that the 1.382 of 89 would take us to 1163.

AmenRa said...

When the government numbers (lies0 catch up with the actual then its going to get interesting.

http://www.consumerindexes.com/commentary_2010_dailygrowthindexvsgdp_full.png

Andy T said...

anyone else notice BR's blog taking forever to load? seems like something occurring more recently.

karen said...

good evening! my son is back in the hospital! i am so upset! bizarre that it strikes up every 7 months or so..

anyway, AT.. glad you are so chipper; and AR, this was darling, "I'm huffing and I'm puffing. Maybe I should create an algo to do this for me."

karen said...

seeing if i can't entice DL to comment..

AmenRa said...

Gold at 1278 and climbing...

McFearless said...

shiny metals are on fire again today, getting pretty exciting here team

AmenRa said...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8qsvPu.KIq8&pos=3

FedEx Forecast Trails Estimates; 1,700 Jobs to Be Cut



By Mary Jane Credeur

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- FedEx Corp., the second-largest U.S. package-shipping company, forecast earnings for the current quarter that fell short of analysts’ estimates, and said it will eliminate 1,700 jobs.

Net income for the three months ending in November will be $1.15 to $1.35 a share, the Memphis, Tennessee-based company said today in a statement. Analysts projected $1.37 a share, the average of 19 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

The results show that the global economic recovery is uneven, with demand for domestic shipments lagging behind growth in more-profitable international express packages. FedEx and United Parcel Service Inc. are considered bellwethers because they deliver goods ranging from industrial parts and consumer electronics to pharmaceuticals and financial documents.

FedEx said it expects to close about 100 facilities as it combines its FedEx Freight and FedEx National LTL operations starting in January.

Full-year adjusted earnings per share will be in a range of $4.80 to $5.25, it said. Analysts estimated $5.21.

Net income for the three months ended Aug. 31 was $380 million, or $1.20 a share, which fell short of the average $1.21 estimate of 19 analyst projections in a Bloomberg survey. Revenue rose 18 percent to $9.46 billion.

FedEx fell $2.42, or 2.8 percent, to $83.52 at 7:37 a.m. before the start of New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares had increased 3 percent this year before today, outpacing a gain of less than 1 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

CV said...

new thread

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.