AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Creditcane™: Basel III somehow changed me to a tropical storm (for the time being).



SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(89) & now SMA(144). Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1090.10). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still heading for its 50% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.46).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). It was heading towards the 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1239.90).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above the 23.6% retrace. Above all SMA's except the SMA(144). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2875).



JNK
Bullish long day. Hanging man set free. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.40).




10YR YIELD
Bearish engulfing day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has been holding. Above the 14.6% retrace (26.94) but back below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.99).



AUDJPY
Doji day. Still above 38.2% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.5382).




TLT
Bullish long day. Still below the SMA(21). Tested and held SMA(55) twice. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 104.88). Trending down on the daily 3LB.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Well above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4387.40). Trending up on the daily 3LB.




36 comments:

CV said...

OK... This will probably take several posts... But here goes CV (for Monday Night Football)...

CV said...

CV's MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICK

Probably the biggest "story" here is that "Revis Island" has finally signed a contract with the Jets...

What makes CV laugh is that the Jets were (-3) about 10 days ago, and the line has dropped to (-1.5) as of last update (and still - more than 62% of the $$ is on the Ravens)...


Revis didn't get anywhere close to the $170 million he was fishing for, but all that matters is that he'll be around to terrorize No. #1 receivers in 2010... (which he's pretty good at doing)...

So I guess the Ravens can simply forget about their new "toys" (Boldin & TJ Housh)...

I've read some crappy football analysts talking about "Revis will blanket Anquan Boldin", forcing Joe Flacco to look elsewhere... But that doesn't necessarily compute in CV's book... Boldin was acquired because he can make the tough catches across the middle (where you pay for a reception by scattering your teeth across the yardline)... Revis shuts down the "edges" (and the out and ups)... The middle of the field is NOT his island...

Nowadays, Joe Flacco has tons of other options... Derrick Mason may "allow" himself to get shut down by Revis... But you might also have Ray Rice coming out of the backfield just over top whatever "all out" pressure that Rex Ryan dials up on D... Suddenly, quietly, Todd Heap finds himself healthier than he's been in years... Don't be surprised if the Ravens "find something" in the middle of the field...

A potential PROBLEM for the Ravens is that Jets coach Rex Ryan knows everything... Taking a FORMER coach (Ryan, like Marvin Lewis [Bengals] was one of the many Ravens DEFENSIVE COORDINATORS, who later landed a head coaching job due to their tradition of success)... Ryan was running the practice squad defense when Flacco was a rookie, so he knows Flacco's strengths, weaknesses and tendencies... Or maybe not...

Flacco... Now in his 3rd year... Is much more "experienced", and has had not only better PLAYERS to surround him (Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin, TJ. Housh, and a healthier offensive line led by center Matt Birk & tackle Michael Oher)... But he also works in a different "system" (with O-coordinator Cam Cameron & now Jim Zorn as QB coach)...

CV said...

(part 2)

It may be different this time...

That's not to paint TOO ROSY a picture... The Jets D is formidable, and oftentimes when you mix two "explosive" things together, a highly unpredictable cocktail emerges...

But here's where we get down to the "differential"... IN CV's view...

On offense, for the Jets, (notwithstanding the presence of bubble butted hot blonde Mexican reporters on the sidelines), Mark Sanchez has been absolutely terrible this preseason...

In addition to posting disgusting numbers in his final two preseason games (18-of-31, 151 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 58.0%, 4.9 YPA), QB Nacho Taco has shown a glaring inability to identify the blitz - and this was against "semi-vanilla" defenses, stacked with players hoping to make the PRACTICE SQUADS somewhere in the NFL and stave off that warehouse job at Best Buy...

The Ravens are going to throw the "kitchen sink" at Sanchez... Baltimore's defense is mighty talented, and if they have their way, The Jet's may not score a single offensive point because NOBODY runs on the Ravens, (who ranked No. 1 versus the rush in 2009)...

If you don't deeply understand the NFL, you have to think of it this way...

The Baltimore Ravens have had, arguably, THE best DEFENSE in the NFL for the past decade (since their Super Bowl win in 2001)...

Rex Ryan (son of "Buddy Ryan"), who was the architect of the 1985 Chicago Bears "86" defense... Also has a great defensive pedigree...

Many sportswriters rank the 1985 Chicago Bears & the 2000 Baltimore Ravens as the two fiercest DEFENSES in the history of the NFL...

The fact is, though... Marvin Lewis (now - head coach of Cincinnati Bengals) was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens in the 2000 campaign...

The reason the RAVENS are competitive, year in and year out (a team which has, BY FAR, the best record of ROAD playoff game wins [which a teams only accomplishes with a solid defense])... Is because it has Ozzie Newsome as general manager... Ozzie is probably the best GM in the game of football... He'd be the most successful hedge fund manager on Wall St. if that was his vocation...

ANYWAY - Rex Ryan is full of "attitude" (and CV likes that)... Yet his TRANSFORMATION of the NY Jets into a defensive MIRROR of the Baltimore Ravens is still, well... IN DEVELOPMENT...

Ray Lewis will tell you...

And what I mean by that is, expect these players to play with some kind of intensity that you don't often see...

There will be some serious bones broken tonight... I'll take THE RAVENS to come out on top of the bone pile...

An interesting side note to this game is that next week, each team plays a marquis DIVISION rival (Jets vs. New England/Ravens vs. Marvin Lewis & the Bengals)...

So the Ravens are facing their NOTORIOUS former defensive coordinators in week #1 & #2 of the NFL this season... Then they have to go on to Pittsburgh and play the Steelers at Heinz Field in week 4... And some ask... ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?

Game notes:

- The Jets are sharing their "new stadium" with the New York Giants and are playing their first home game there... Favorites opening up a new stadium are 3-8 ATS since 1997. (now, 4-8, because the Giants opened up with a win against the Carolina Panthers yesterday)...

- Teams in home openers went (9-3-2) ATS yesterday... Which reversed the recent trend...

- Ravens are 12-8 ATS on the road under John Harbaugh...

Jets are 5-10 ATS in September home games since 2000 (2-0 in 2009)...

CV said...

Oh... PICK?

(0 units) - I don't like the "value" of the betting line...

I'll basically take the Ravens to WIN... No money on it...

San Diego - KC later...

CV said...

I should say (68%) of $$ bet on Ravens...

I hate when that happens...

I want to side with Vegas... ALWAYS (money wise)...

CV said...

The public like the Ravens...

Just like they liked "the Cowboys" last night...

Just like, Le Bron James (at the game, in the skybox, wearing the OBAMA HOPE t-shirt, liked the HOPE that a view snippet would get him invited to the White House)...

Knowing the dipshit President we have... it probably succeeded...

CV said...

foto op... forthcoming...

expect it about the time that Le Bron and the Miami Heat are in contention next March-April & when Obama's "approval ratings" are about 40%...

and/or about the same time that Obama puts out his NCAA "brackets" picks...

Anything to distract the ROMANS about how inept he is...

As CV has said many times... "I'd VOTE for him... for NBA commissioner"...

McFearless said...

I think quite a few bear capitulated today, but probably not enough of them....look at the AH, I think it does feel harder to be bearish now than at any other time this year so I wonder if there is just a huge bear puke out at 1130.

@Ra,

have you gone back since 07 and looked at all the major turning points in the market to see how many non-confirmations the 3lb gave? I know that has to be some, no indicators can be used forever without a non-confirmation eventually, would be curious when/if you've seen them and what happened afterward.

CV said...

@McF

I'm looking at futures too... (before the game)...

Again - ALL - I apologize if CV "mixes" capital markets with NFL (in this season)... but that's how it goes around here...

From what I kno... 3lb monthly reversal is all the way up at 1186...

Personally... I think only the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 (you kno what I mean) bears are sploogin' their pants - (per other video)...

Cv isn't worried... I'm just looking for some JETS to be breathing out of their helmet EARHOLES 2nite... :-)

C'Mon Man!

Nic said...

Thanks Amen_Ra

McFearless do you have a bull/bear count for Bucky? I was just reading this article:
http://www.businessinsider.com/traders-havent-been-this-short-the-dollar-and-this-long-the-euro-in-years-2010-9
and this:
http://www.businessinsider.com/traders-are-ramping-bets-against-the-dollar-again-2010-9

Nic said...

I was watching tennis but rain stopped play.

Nic said...

I wonder if those pussy jets will play in the rain

CV said...

@McF

Hopefully tho... THIS WEEK... will provide an opportunity to make a trade...

I haven't touched EQUITIES for a few weeks now...

I "shorted" gold the other day... (not doing anything)...

and I'm long DOLLAR calls (which I'm getting KILLED on)... with a lot of GAMMA to spare...

CV said...

oooooooooooooooh NIC...

You THROW DOWN!

For CV? It's not so much AGAINST the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets...

I'm just a DIE HARD Baltimore Ravens fan...

Andy T said...

CV,

You're a Ravens fan?

I couldn't tell....

Bwahahahahahh

Good analysis....

I've take KC+4.5 tonight. Staying off the Jes/Baltimore game. The KC line just didn't look right to me....seemed like San Diego should have been favored by more....

Andy T said...

@Karen,

I saw your comment earlier on the Invictus post BR's....

Here's what I said in retort:

Invictus:

Um, WTF point are you trying to make here?

If you just knocked someone to the ground, how much would they bounce after hitting the floor? If you threw someone from a 30 story building how far might they bounce?

Perhaps “you’re on to something” here, but it seems like a silly discussion point right now. Intuitively, the harder something collapses (or falls), the more robust the initial rebound should be–the fact that we haven’t bounced harder, in terms of jobs, is actually surprising and disappointing.

You’re doing a good job, though, it being circumspect in the beginning of the passage with a statement like this: “To be clear, I am not advocating hard one way or the other”. That level of equivocation will make you an all-star Business Blogger someday.

AmenRa said...

Ben

Confirmation comes only if buying or selling pressure moves the prices in the respective direction. Right now the SPX has a confirming high. If it fails to close the week with a confirmation then I'd tighten up stops and would expect next week to be down. The SPX reversed higher on 8/6/10 and it took five weeks to confirm. During that time the SPX traded down to 1039.70 but didn't reverse (1022.58 was reversal price). So using the 3LB takes patience. Also I look at the midpoint as the sentiment direction.

CV said...

@Andy

Your SD/KC take is probably right...

It's probably the VALUE LINE to take KC & the points... (as the PUBLIC is on the CHARGERS at the moment to the tune of 80% to 20%)... Line is now 5 points...

I'd touch up that line in a HEARTBEAT if Vegas had had a bad day yesterday, but actually they fared pretty well vs. J6P... Unusual for week 1 - because often they dole out some freebies...

Probably THE RECESSION... (Vegas wants its wins - in cash - & EARLY)...

This is just GRAVY for Vegas (if the Chiefs cover)...

I attribute the line movements more towards securing the TEASER scenarios...

PUSH teasers lose in Vegas (& with most bookies)... There4, moving off a HALF POINT spread makes little difference...

Vegas either wants the Chargers to win by 11, or lose straight up... That's a pretty safe "hedge" on their part...

CV has NO ACTION... I "booked" Saturday & Sunday, and now I'm just a fan (of the Ravens, of course)...

CV liked your GOLD CHARTS... thanks...

Nic said...

Jets delay game 20 mins for rain.
Sigh.
The Patriots play in blizzards

AmenRa said...

Ben

I use fibo retraces with the weekly & monthly 3LB. The weekly mid is/was 1072.11 and the monthly mid is 1108.70. The weekly closed above its 76.4% at 1098.26 so a test of the weekly high (1121.64) was coming. The test can't be graded until the close on Friday.

average joe said...

Another day, another a$$-f******* by the bank staff.

AmenRa said...

There are a lot of punches being thrown in the pile ups...

I-Man said...

LOL Nic! (6:21)

CV said...

@Nic

It was "lightning"... (not just rain)...

They do that (for the safety of the fans)... Football players could care less...

@Amen - good perspective on the 3lb weekly...

RAVENS - Around here, we all know... The RAIDERS slogan is "JUST WIN BABY"...

Here?... "JUST WIN UGLY BABY"...

Nic said...

I'm just winding you up CV. Go Ravens etc :)

karen said...

Andy, LOL! that was a perfect retort..
Nic, you are making me wish I cared about football : )

karen said...

AR, what?! no SPY candle.. quite an infuriating wrap.. : )
I think I'll get drunko tonight.. what a day.. to top it off, my husband comes to town and doesn't tell me?! He doesn't know that I know.. I find it rude and inconsiderate.

Oh, so Miss Piggy had to go; but I'm sticking with the pearls.. (me channeling The Great Gatspy at a Halloween party 2 years ago..)

Nic said...

Joe Namath on twitter:
@RealJoeNamath

That's disgusting. You need 10 yards for a first down and you complete a 9 yard out.

Nic said...

I like Ms Piggy and Ms Gatsby

Nic said...

CV
Win "ugly" was an understatement.

AmenRa said...

Ben

Isn't that your group on the late game?

Nic said...

IMF fears 'social explosion' from world jobs crisis - Telegraph http://bit.ly/bgB4Qe

McFearless said...

@Ra,

great man, thanks very much for the 3lb insights.

Nic, will get back to you on the dollar via e-mail. The dollar has gone through some huge sentiment swings from last years low to this years high, all the way up to 98% bulls a little bit before the high earlier this year, that washed away bvery quick and the sentiment now is very bearish the dollar but it's sort of in no man's land is my perspective.

call me ahab said...

it appears my team is a bust-

the RuPauls were manhandled by Them Thugs w/ a 100 point beatdown-

hand that man $100 right now-

(sigh- everyone of my players underperformed off of projections)

as a consolation I won in my other league (of course that league is just for fun)

Anonymous said...

Today Macro Man is calling "sell"
Bertie

CV said...

new thread up

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