Morning Audibles - 9.14.10

Morning Audibles? (do you know what an "audible" is)?... An "audible", in football terminology is what you see Peyton Manning doing at the line of scrimmage when the sees the defense and want's to call a better play...


Morning Audible for today?... NONE... We're going with the quick count (just stick with the play called in the huddle)... QB keeper "kneel down", on "1", ready, BREAK!



7:30: NFIB small business optimism index for Aug... The median forecast called for a reversal of the small drop reported for July, but the bias of forecasts is to the side of a weaker outcome.
Median forecast (of 9): 89, ranging from 85 to 89; last 88.1...

This number came at 88.8

8:30: Retail Sales (Aug)… We are at the upper end of the range of estimates, apparently translating retailers’ reports into a better outcome than our counterparts.  However, this is a difficult report to predict, especially as revisions often have overriding effects.

On total sales, GS: +0.6%; median forecast (of 76): +0.3%, ranging from -0.3% to +0.6%; last: +0.4%;

On sales ex autos, GS: +0.7%; median forecast (of 74): +0.3%, ranging from -0.2% to +0.7%; last +0.2%.

10:00: Business Inventories (Jul)… The median forecast implies a 1.5% drop in retail inventories as manufacturers’ inventories rose 1.0% and wholesale inventories rose 1.1%.

Median forecast (of 50): +0.7%, ranging from +0.1% to +1.1%; last +0.3%.

Just think... If it weren't for all that "compelling news", this thread would be totally bare...


Just think... If it weren't for all that "compelling news", this thread would be totally bare...

I'm already looking forward to the 4:00 hour so I can have my first THREAD BEER


Can't we get Dionysus to calculate some Elliott Waves for us?

Dionysus would probably say that despite a little weakness on the open this morning, the rest of the chart looks poised to ramp on Thursday & Friday, as the Primary Dealers apply 30x leverage to $27 billion dollars straight from Uncle Ben...



And the aggregate of all these things has DEMOTIVATED CV into declaring this... "National IMPLIED FACEPALM month"...


So raise your glass and drink a toast!




191 comments:

CV said...

Macro Man wants somebody to release the Kracken...

call me ahab said...

shocking news:

"AP-CNBC Poll: Investors wary of stock trading"

Wild gyrations on Wall Street have made U.S investors leery of buying individual stocks and skeptical that the market is a fair place to park their money . . .the majority of those surveyed -- 55 percent -- said the market is fair only to some investors.

Say it ain't so

karen said...

morning!! laughing.. are we ready for a fun, fun day? gold is making a statement today.. and I'll come back with more news : )

karen said...

German investor confidence falls to 19 month low..

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aW9GeICp_iNk

wunsacon said...

Ha! The "facepalm" pic is hilarious. Thanks, CV.

karen said...

too funny from iuubob

Never made sense to collect autographs until now http://bit.ly/9mbOuN

karen said...

I've got shivers!


In a letter to members of the joint Commodity Futures Trading Commission - Securities and Exchange Commission advisory committee, due to meet on Tuesday, the Managed Funds Association (MFA) says that the financial crisis “and continuing economic weakness are likely larger contributors to the general market uncertainty than any particular trading rule or practice”.

It reminds people with memories that stretch back to 1962 that the “flash crash” on May 6 was not unique and that investors had previously experienced “similar, sharp market dislocations”.

I wasn’t born until 1963 so can’t tell you anything about the “Market Break of 1962”, as it was apparently known. But the MFA tells us that on one day in May (why always May?) the Dow Jones fell sharply in 20 minutes, with some stocks falling by as much as 9 per cent in 12 minutes.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/817727e0-bfe0-11df-9628-00144feab49a.html

karen said...

smsearsBarrons

Risk of owning risk assets is that major institutions sell into retail buying strength.

Ben, is that another way of saying the D word ??

call me ahab said...

"Cuba to Fire State Workers in Hope They Go Private"

what's a man to think- I wonder if Sean Penn and Michael Moore approve-

well at least they still have the best health car on the planet- right?

karen said...

gotta luv albert edwards!!

The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar deluded state of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now locked in a Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/market-still-deluding-itself-that-it-can-escape-the-inevitable-denouement/

CV said...

"Cuba to Fire State Workers in Hope They Go Private"

Fidel Castro has my next vote for President...

He's got to have a few million stashed around somewhere to fight off lawsuits about his US citizenship, right?

CV said...

I'll just turn the farm into a cigar plantation...

karen said...

"If we plunge back into recession, do not place too much confidence in the Central Banks having control of events. As my colleague, Dylan Grice, said last week “let them keep pressing their buttons.” Ultimately they cannot fool all of the investors, all of the time." Albert Edwards

karen said...

tradefast

spx has rallied in 9 of last 10 sessions - this has occurred only 11 times since 2001 - in every case, spx pulled back within a day or two

karen said...

This is so effing shocking, i cannot believe i am reading it:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704190704575490162065052900.html

CV said...

@karen

It's no doubt to any thinking person that the central banks will eventually lose control over things (as if they actually have any CONTROL now anyway)...

The only "surprising" thing to me is how long the collective world appears to be allowing and enduring these last gasp maneuvers...

When the next "unraveling" does eventually occur, I'm pretty convinced that it'll happen with a speed that nobody is prepared for...

It will be the most UNEXPECTED "EXPECTED" thing in history...

call me ahab said...

CV-

Them Thugs beat my ass- Hakeem Nicks 25 points? Randy Moss 5 points?

Manning 40 points? Schaub 5 points?

what gives?

just go ahead and send me my $100 back- no harm no foul?

lol

CV said...

@ahab

on any given sunday...

karen said...

On Tuesday 14th September 2010, @mrtopstep said:

* The widely followed weekly $JPM #Bond $TY_F Investor #Survey shows investors came off the fence a bit and got long.
* Longs rose to 33% from 24% in the prior week - highest number of longs since July, 2009 and reflects some of strong showing for the 3-year and re-opened 10-year auctions last week.
* Shorts were unchanged at 16%; neutral holdings fell to 51% from 60%.

karen said...

DR is really good this morning:

https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Breakfast_with_Dave_091410.pdf

karen said...

mrtopstep precharts for 09/14? haven't watched yet..

http://www.hedgeaccording.ly/2010/09/mr-topstep-pre-market-charts-for-914.html

CV said...

Silver at another new high...

CV re-iterates... Who was it during the summer that told me I was out of my mind for wanting to buy silver coins?

call me ahab said...

Jet's offense looked awful- ugly game- glad to see Baltimore hold on to win-

didn't see much of the SD/KC game

karen said...

I prefer candlesticks myself..

CV said...

"I prefer candlesticks myself"

---

Col Mustard - In the cloakroom - with candlesticks

karen said...

this came out last night: Bank Of America Searches For Assets To Sell
8:31 PM ET 9/13/10 | Dow Jones
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is looking to identify tens of billions of dollars of assets and businesses to sell or wind down, in a move aimed at easing investor concerns about its holdings of risky securities and loans, the Financial Times reported Tuesday on its website, citing unnamed people attending recent meetings with bank executives.

The executives told analysts and fund managers at the meetings that they were weighing detailed disclosures on the loans, businesses and stakes that didn't fit in their long-term plans, the FT cited the people as saying.

Analysts said that the non-core assets could exceed $100 billion and could include structured-credit products and impaired loans that came with its acquisition of Countrywide Financial, the FT said.

Bank of America declined to comment, the FT reported.

Full story: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47d268be-bf7d-11df-b9de-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss.

CV said...

Let's put it this way...

If BAC actually "had" any good assets to sell, it might not be in position of needing to raise capital this way...

In similar news...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5567983

karen said...

amazing steve jobs story! he'll never visit japan again, laughing.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1hv1vYJTHZk

McFearless said...

"If we plunge back into recession, do not place too much confidence in the Central Banks having control of events."

Albert Edwards knows whats up.....bitchez.

McFearless said...

ahab,

the SD/KC game was the best game I saw all week. The crowd was awesome, KC looked really fast, ready to play, defense was 100% better than last year.

McFearless said...

I wish Daneric would throw out the minute [ii] of 3 idea....it's not the right count..

McFearless said...

do any of you follow depew at Minyanville?

Apparently he's stated they have a TD sell signal yesterday/today, last two were at the January top and the April 23 I think.

anyone know about this?

CV said...

throwing stars bitchez!

CV said...

@McF

(Minyanville)... I wonder if it has to do with FIBO days...

Today is day 54 since 1010...

Some of these peaks have run around the "55" number...

CV said...

Actually I should say "52" days... I was counting something else...

Nevertheless...

karen said...

I don't subscribe to Buzz and Banter so can't see that..

Weekly TD Aggressive Sequential Sell Signal
Mon Sep 13th, 2010
KEVIN DEPEW
Chart below shows weekly SPX TD Aggressive Sequential sell signal. Agg

spoonman said...

I follow Depew, but the TD gobbledy-gook doesn't mean much to me. I think it's a relatively mechanical system, more so than wave, although they may be somewhat related. The book to read, I think, is Demark indicators by Jason Perl. Tom Demark has some books too. I haven't read any of them, though, so this isn't a recommendation by any means.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Why he couldn't go to any martial arts supply store in the US is beyond me. Guess he wanted authenticity...

karen said...

Funny.. i email my sons articles all the time. and I NEVER get a reply--with the exception of today's Steve Jobs Ninja Stars.. they both replied within 15 minutes.. LOL

karen said...

Ben, we looked at that UUP chart yesterday and shook our heads, remember? looked bad and was bad : (

spoonman said...

One more thing...I do know that a sell signal in the system doesn't always mean you sell right now. You may have to wait for a confirmation or something. Again, I don't know the system, but there are very definite rules for interpreting these signals that aren't always obvious to the casual observer. From what I understand, the basic premise is that you're looking for "exhaustion" points of a trend. Once you see a sign of that you wait for confirmation to trade(I think).

CV said...

Another thing that was interesting to me (while I was looking), was that the 50MA was sloping back up (giving it the "appearance" that it might come back and do a bullish CROSS back over the 200)...

But that ought not be the case unless SPX gets over 1130 and basically sticks...

Reason?

After 50 days (and we're just past 50 days from 1010)... All of the days have spent in the range of 1040 - 1130 (and MORE in the 1065-1116 range)...

The "median" is about 1097...

SPX needs to break out of this range (and continue moving higher), to have any hope for a "golden cross"

McFearless said...

thanks spoon,

apparently the TD sell signals last two triggers were days before the January and April tops of this year, which were clearly great calls if true.

McFearless said...

yes, trying to put together various comments on blogs I think that is right that it needs confirmation, which appears should come today, yesterday was the sell signal, any close above 1096/97 today confirms it....I don't know enough about it, just thought it was something worth mention since the last two calls were spot on.

karen said...

Consumer Reports Index: Economy Continues to Waiver With Worsening Job Outlook
10:20 AM ET 9/14/10 | PR Newswire
Consumer difficulties are declining, but the economy continues to waiver, with a worsening job picture and declining retail activity, according to the Consumer Reports Index for September.

The U.S. job outlook remains bleak, the September results for the Consumer Reports Employment Index marks a two-month decline, down in September to 49.1 from 50.2 in August. The share of Americans claiming to have started a new job in the past 30 days is 5.0%, versus 5.9% in August, and down from July's recent high of 7.8%. Job losses in the past 30 days were up, 6.9%, from August, 5.6%. Results show that younger Americans between the ages of 18-34 years have been hit the hardest by job losses (13.7%).

spoonman said...

so...does this count as "bottoming action" on the dollar?

McFearless said...

karen,

yes, can't love the dollar right at the moment...I'm not sure I have anything else to say right now.

karen said...

i am very crabby about selling my USAGX shares too early.. 40.91 yesterday and i sold 33, i think..

McFearless said...

I'm not sure, there could be trouble here in the dollar, sentiment is mixed, lots of call buying in UUP today. I think AT's line in the sand was 81.44 sooooo......

CV said...

@McF

Yeah... I see that call buying (UUP)...

All I remember is, back in March-May period (while I was standing firm on my May 4th Euro call)... There were a couple of days where it really looked like the trade (idea) was going to be lost...

Then it would whip right back around...

McFearless said...

today is why I will not short gold, damn, I would guess the moment I went short gold it'd be at 1,300 before I could blink.

CV said...

In terms of fractals...

This dollar move isn't all that different from the 2008-2009 time period...

Dollar hit high... retraced... bounced... then, retraced 61.8% of the low from the bounce & proceeded to get to 78.6% of the HIGH...

Similar pattern (level wise) here thus far)...

McFearless said...

C,

I have some ITM Jan Calls on UUP, not too phased by today but we'll see, I'll close them if I have to, but big picture I'm a dollar bull.

Sentiment from DSI reached all the way up to 98% bulls in the dollar this spring not long before the June 7 top, sentiment came way way down during the retracement of that move up to 88.71, back to under 10% bulls.

more schizo sentiment iow.

McFearless said...

the fibo relationships on the dollar are pretty amazing right now, we've got that going at least

McFearless said...

good post today, enjoyed the simple triple top analysis relayed from the STU:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/09/market-is-approaching-a-triple-top.html#tp

McFearless said...

I-man mentioned our b-days of 9/22 and 9/23 as a decent area for a turn and I think he might have nailed it there so we'll find out in a week...going to have to go back to work if the 9/12 fibo work fails this round, I'm not really expecting it to work two months in a row as it's still some new application for me.

karen said...

fiatcurrency

-> GS saying the FED is going to do a $1 trillion
half a minute ago via TweetDeck

fiatcurrency
Fed could announce new program of asset purchases to support weak economy Nov, according to GS (WSJ)buyback of debt starting in November.
less than a minute ago via TweetDeck

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/14/just-when-you-thought-it-was-safe-to-start-shorting-again.html

CV said...

CV is going to print himself up a trillion new bucks and go on a shopping spree too...

CV said...

NEW CHART IN THREAD

Take a look at the number of bearish divergences on the GLD "weekly" chart over the past 5 years...

Just one after another...

Not that TECHNICALS apply anymore to anything...

McFearless said...

Karen,

I just read DR's daily, lol. Like I said yesterday, it must have been weak analysis day...guess he agrees.

Or, I did really like the way andy put it, if you throw someone on the ground how far will they bounce, if you throw them out of a 30 story building might they bounce further....

McFearless said...

folks....the Fed may do $1 trillion.


oh no, here I am asking myself that old pervy question:

Is that big?

well, I just looked at the other side of the ledger, at all that debt that is going to deflate right out of here, and my conclusion:

NAHhhhhhh, it's not big.

CV said...

"bounce, if you throw them out of a 30 story building might they bounce further..."

CV is all for testing that theory out...

JUMP YOU F'ers!

McFearless said...

did anyone catch the guy representing the NFIB on CNBC early this morning?

he wasn't exactly a ray of sunshine, he did laugh at a lot of comments about how things were getting better though.

spoonman said...

"if you throw someone on the ground how far will they bounce, if you throw them out of a 30 story building might they bounce further...."

no cats were harmed in the making of this market...

McFearless said...

big primary going on in DE today for republicans....could shed some light on what we are to see the next few months.

McFearless said...

we were actually going to clone people to test this 30 story building idea but Bush shut it down.

all bush's fault....

CV said...

USD futures now stand at 81.44...

CV said...

UDS 81.44 (futures)

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

McFearless said...

yeah, we are probably going to close right on it or a penny above, just to make anyone trading with AT's charts sweat bullets.

you bastards

( I mean those gnomes)

McFearless said...

aren't you all just totally excited about Oprah's new gift announcement.

Jennifer said...

TLT is up though...

McFearless said...

well,....are we going to touch 1130 here or what!?!

Jennifer said...

Anyone follow ALKS? They were mentioned during the noon business hour radio show I like to listen to while doing the pre-school shuffle a couple of days ago so I put them on my radar screen. There was a giant spike up this morning which has faded away. Weird. The company makes a drug for diabetes which is supposedly going to be approved by the FDA in Oct/Nov.

AmenRa said...

DXY is below its weekly 3LB reversal price and its 50% retrace.

McFearless said...

Ra,

how is tick reading? p/c is really low.

CV said...

@Jennifer

I don't follow anything drug related...

All I do is watch the commericals on TV... Then... I set my watch, and exactly 3 years later, some 2 bit ambulance chaser is doing a class action lawsuit against the company who was pushing the drug for anyone who has since displayed symptoms of tardive dyskenesia...

karen said...

Jenn.. thanks for that.. too bizarre.. hadn't noted TLT.. where would the dollar be if treasuries weren't being gobbled up???

or, who is buying the Ts?? maybe that is why gold is up.. it isn't the euro, btw. maybe real $$ is going into gold while electronic $$ is going into bonds..

CV said...

I see a low on the dollar futures of 81.41

CV said...

"or, who is buying the Ts?? maybe that is why gold is up.. it isn't the euro, btw. maybe real $$ is going into gold while electronic $$ is going into bonds..."

Answer: $27 billion in electronic $$ buys treasuries...

30x leverage on those assets buys PAPER GOLD...

karen said...

fiatcurrency

(BN) Fed's Impact From More Easing Would Be Moderate, Hatzius SaysExpects $1 trillion in new bonds purchases.

CV said...

Then they'll probably sell calls on that...

Crash the gold market... Collect all the "premium"... and when gold is $900, they'll buy the physical...

McFearless said...

I believe AT did clarify a close below 81.44.

CV said...

It's good to be a bank...

CV said...

@mcf

correct

bob said...

They were gunning for a barrier option at 1.30 on the EUR, they got it, 1.3001 at least, now back down slightly.

karen said...

zerohedge

Fed just bought boatload of AUDJPY
half a minute ago via TweetDeck

(me: he can't really know that, right??)

McFearless said...

if looking at the EUR, traders are very bullish the EUR right now, widespread thoughts of idiocy after the European stress tests cause some people to do some dumb things based on exogenous cause religion.

traders like Yen as well.

McFearless said...

Nic provided this link last night, the DSI doesn't show sentiment this bearish on the dollar but I found this information pretty valuable:

http://www.businessinsider.com/traders-havent-been-this-short-the-dollar-and-this-long-the-euro-in-years-2010-9

bob said...

AUD more interesting, new high.

Yeah, TD called up Ben, said "hey you fugging as$hole, did you just buy AUDJPY?"

Ben's reply, "Yes, and now I want your kids and your gold"

All of this was reported by madhedgefundtrader, he had the NSA tap the call.

CV said...

wiretaps bitchez!

McFearless said...

lol Bob.

where sentiment is most interesting, or perhaps most confusing is gold.....DSI showed 98% bulls several months ago, but the steady rise just keeps on keeping on, pretty amazing how much staying power the gold bulls have.

CV said...

there bob... CV just completed the YAHTZEE :-)

karen said...

thanks, bob, too funny!!

CV said...

new chart in thread

here's an interesting glimpse at the SPX monthly...

CV said...

keep in mind that next month (october)... will be 20 months since the March '09 lows...

AmenRa said...

Ben

Tick high 977 low -628. still hasn't taken out yesterdays high or low.

Trin hanging around 1.00

Mel said...

And here I thought tardive kendision had something to do with swimming in the gulf...whew, that was a stretch.

CV said...

How's this for "retarded"?

CV - blog host of "Survivor Capital", is in a SURVIVOR football league (where all you do is pick on team to win per week - it doesn't even have to be against the spread)...

Naturally - you always try and pick AGAINST the weakest teams...

Most of the time - I can go 14-15 week deep into the season with this...

This year?

CV takes THE CHARGERS in week1 (vs. KC)...

LOL

karen said...

alaidi
#Silver has yet to regain 2008 high of $21.30 so momentum traders going wild as reasons to buy metals are even stronger now $SILV $COPA $$

AmenRa said...

Gold to CBs: How ya like me now?

AmenRa said...

1130 before the day is out. Sheesh.

CV said...

@karen

"Silver has yet to regain 2008 high of $21.30"

---

CV is becoming richer UNDERGROUND and poorer ABOVE GROUND by the day... lol

2small2bail said...

"tardive dyskinesia" ... I wonder if athlete's on the juice might inadvertantly draw attention this way

OT
@k - had a collegue's co-worker (3rd hand, I know) get chatted up by Chris Botti at a San Diego wine tasting this past weekend ... comment was, "he really is that good looking"

Cutler. Yeah! 24 points and 1 INT x16 is less than 20 :-) - maybe they can play the Lions every weekend (laughing)

mcHAPPY said...

This is painful. I have given up on the impulsive count off 1129/August 10. I am even wondering if the move from April 26 is impulsive!

McFearless said...

it's a 3 mchappy....and I'm talking from the April high, been in that camp for a while now....oh well, is what it is...and we still have a C wave to trade eventually.

McFearless said...

there is no selling pressure almost at all it seems, buyers want in...hate to say it but makes me think 1150 or higher is the right target...so is this worth a trade on the long side is the question.

CV said...

@McF

I'd think we might get at least one quickie pullback first...

But don't trade off that logic - lol...

It'd be about as dumb as buying stocks because of the elections...

bob said...

Options week. It seems lately that options week has an upside bias. Remember how bearish everyone was 1, 2, 3 months ago?

Equity markets should peak before friday, then go down to expiration.

Then there are the VIX calls, where everyone was betting on higher VOL. Max pain would mean lower vol and higher equities and indices(h/t wanger).

Next month, OCT, is one of the out of phase months, meaning that VIX expires the week after equity options. Topstep had quite a few words at the beginning of the summer about how much was being bet on higher VOL in OCT, haven't heard anything about it lately.

Gold is a wildcard.

Waiting for a sign that AUD has topped, It took off running this week and never looked back. Looking back at past options weeks this is normal.

bob said...

http://www.forexlive.com/131985/all/audusd-rally-puts-exotic-options-in-play

AmenRa said...

As the yen continues its upward trajectory, carry traders are being carried out.

Gold has CB's shaking and begging someone to sell.

karen said...

EU Short-Selling Ban To Be Unveiled Tomorrow

http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/QA-How-will-clamp-down-on-financial-speculators-2010-09-14T150116Z-EU

CV said...

"Gold has CB's shaking and begging someone to sell."

Helpful hint... Stop the effin QE!

McFearless said...

re: options, I think we have only closed below max pain 3 times in the last 15 months.

that's a pretty fair sample size for expy strategies.

karen said...

from James Turk just now:

http://goldmoney.com/gold-research/silver-is-ready-to-move-to-centre-stage.html

McFearless said...

C,

yeah, I'm not sure I'd go long right here but if there were a small pullback I might just go long spy for a quick trade. no leverage, nothing spectacular, stop out with a small loss if wrong.

McFearless said...

lol @ EU short selling ban....I mean, it was such a long time ago but maybe they don't remember how that all worked over here.

evil speculators

karen said...

alaidi

Don't forget PIIGs will hit the bond market this month. Btwn this lingering uncertainty + FedQE2 talk, what else would gold + silver do ? $$

I-Man said...

We'll get a clear sign momentarily McF...

Consolidation... let it break one way or the other, and the trade will be evident.

(YM is currently right on the 61.8 of todays move off the low...)

Leaning towards higher prints myself, but wanna see a new surge of buy orders to kick in the next leg before I move.

Anonymous said...

My little miner is up seven percent this morning. It's at that level where I expect it to turn tail and run. I think I'll ride it a little longer and take my lumps again.

Ravens beat the Jets, but both teams looked ugly. Flacco threw the ball so poorly that I thought I was watching a high school game. They could have put a lot more points on the board if he could hit his receivers when they beat their coverage.

McFearless said...

how do people make straight faced arguments like that about gold?

c'mon man!

did alaidi sleep through 08?

McFearless said...

now I see headlines that the flash crash was caused by the SEC.

rmfao

CV said...

@anon

I don't think that was the issue (Flacco)...

He was just trying to get the ball out of his hands quickly to avoid taking any sack...

Timing is off when that happens...

he knew it really didn't matter because they were in single coverage and were going to get flagged for a lot of penalties...

CV said...

@mcf

The SEC porn gnomes...

karen said...

sorry if i posted this earlier.. it's just about the only good news i can find!

BofA May Have to Buy Back $20 Billion in Loans, Insurers Say

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6QsDkG2JQcU

Nic said...

What a squeeze of a morning. Im ready to sell for a swing now.
Advance decline 91, most oscillators in extreme territory.

karen said...

banning burkas.. in france no less.. this is wild to me..

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/europe/french-senate-overwhelmingly-votes-to-ban-burkas-in-public/article1706743/

CV said...

@karen

(banning burkas)

probably in response to this...

http://downloads.cbn.com/cbnnewsplayer/cbnplayer.swf?aid=17933

McFearless said...

Neely's current count should have us around 1160 to above the April highs before this move is over, he has us in C wave now.

McFearless said...

yeah, today would have been a better day for me to put on the small cap short instead of yesterday, I've got a tiny loss there as of right now, still in.

looking at CAT puts again.

I-Man said...

Might have the beginnings of a new run here...

Watching YM 10502 for the reaction...

CV said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-14/cisco-initiating-dividend-that-may-have-yield-of-1-to-2-shares-advance.html

Cisco Initiating Dividend, May Have Yield of 1% to 2%

McFearless said...

now anyone that has followed Chambers over the years finds that to be an interesting sentiment development.

CV said...

@I-Man

I'm looking for consolidation...

CV said...

@mcF

I guess they expect to PAY those dividends with IOUS from the equipment that they're financing in house...

Can you spell LUCENT?

karen said...

CV, that was fascinating! thanks for posting..

CV said...

Dividends are just a way for the CEO's to "pay themselves" (because insider selling doesn't look good)...

That's what's going on here...

McFearless said...

but but, I've heard from the market sages recently that dividend stocks "never really go down"

are you trying to say that isn't true, you bastard.

CV said...

@mcF

Effin Microsoft is hitting the debt market to pay its dividends...

Great... Borrow at low interest rates so Ballmer & Gates can basically extract money off their stock holdings without selling shares (which looks bad)...

More robbery... Stand in line for your weekly hosing...

McFearless said...

Steve Ballmer....not too impressive, what else to say, he's a big sweaty dude.

Anonymous said...

No, what's going on here is that they have cash but good investments are not apparent to management (due to soft demand and market saturation). The options are:

1) Buy back shares
2) Pay dividends
3) Make ridiculous acquisitions
4) Waste money some other way

Option 1 defers taxes, option 2 doesn't, option 3 destroys company value (most of the time) and makes you a villain for destroying jobs, and option 4 sounds like something executives do anyway.

That's why all of these clowns have it wrong, saying "companies have billions of cash on the sidelines, so they have to start hiring and making capital investments." If they don't have viable investment opportunities, they will either waste the money or return it to shareholders (probably both).

CV said...

"No, what's going on here is that they have cash but good investments are not apparent to management (due to soft demand and market saturation). The options are:

1) Buy back shares
2) Pay dividends
3) Make ridiculous acquisitions
4) Waste money some other way"

BULLS*IT

Option #1 - Spin off "cash cow" arm of operation into new IPO... Stick shares in your pocket - get kickbacks from IB firm handling IPO... Grease politicians as to "anti-competitive" ramifications... BANKRUPT "non-profitable" arms... Get tax credits...

Option #2 - Borrow money at ZIRP from FED weasels... Pay yourself lucrative dividend on vested shares until your balance sheet actually becomes insolvent... apply for government bailout and declare yourself TBTF

Option #3 - Sell to Chinese - Get golden parachute - Offshore your winnings - Sign "anti-competition" clause (with invisible ink)...

Option #4 - Cook your books - Get in bed with Congressional oversight panel and make campaign contributions to committee members who are sleazier than you... Pay a private investigator to take pictures of them having sex with 14 year old boys...

McFearless said...

the 401k industry is just silly. i have a client that left JNJ earlier this year, we rolled his 401k to an IRA, did it over the phone, it was about 350k we had a check in 6 business days, done.

he got a new job 5 months ago, started 401k, a whole $2,000 in it now, got let go from new company, we've now waited 7 days just to get the paperwork to move this money to his IRA since they wont' do it over the phone, we get the paperwork, which requires a signature from old employer, yet they don't tell us on paperwork where to send it....classic, so now another phone call.

this happens all the time, but I'm just pointing out, it is stupid.

karen said...

here is topnotch video: http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/14/top-notch-key-levels/

McFearless said...

there's always that option 5 that will show up once deflation becomes evident again to the masses, which is to hoard all the "cash"....but hey, as long as that music is playing, you better dance your ass off...right, chuckie?

McFearless said...

I love the top notch trading graphic, *anyone that spent a few months beating the game Fallout will like that graphic.

*yep, I did that.

McFearless said...

Tim is the man

"they got whatshisface....uhhh, Warren Buffett, no double dip"

ROR

karen said...

I am so in LOVE with TopNotch.. "BS" and "what's his face" he's miffed!!

karen said...

I think i'll just play and replay that vid all day; it makes me so happy!

karen said...

JFC.. all day the argument has been not IF but WHEN the next big QE comes in: alaidi

@zerohedge: MS take on QE2 is the main mover of the day, not GS http://bit.ly/bYo3lP MS satys QE2 to begin next week

McFearless said...

oh and don't look now, but the election meme has totally, like, already worn off, but no worries because now you can get involved in the speculation about when QE2 will be announced, there are several dates being projected by the gnomes (see goldman, MS, etc) so quick, place yer bets, you know QE2 makes all the markets go up, it's

easy

McFearless said...

main mover of the day is MS on QE2, oh man, I just can't take it any more.....pathetic, I've seen every tech and their mother calling for 1130-1150 for weeks now....get effing real!

CV said...

@McF (2:29)

x2

ROR! "whatshisface"... ALL TIME CLASSIC!

karen said...

mrtopstep

Chatter= [01:08:11 PM]: Hearing $SPX #options oct 1100/1120 #Put Spd #Futures live pays 7.10 40 k , added some downside pressure

McFearless said...

man, you guys know I follow sentiment really close/social mood, etc etc.

I've never seen things go from one extreme to another in such short periods as what we have been a part of the last several months, a few weeks ago there were too many bearish posts to read, today just the opposite.

makes me consider HFT's and these ultra fast trading systems that have become so popular, well it's the mood that brought them to the forefront, the emotional thinking of "we need to be able to change our thoughts in miliseconds, the ultimate in flexibility, to get ahead"

we didn't get these manic swings in mood because of HFT, we got HFT because of the moods, because of endogenous desires.....

On another note, I had a client much older than me say to me last week "I feel like people are really hating each other right now, especially in politics, it's like if you aren't on my side you may as well be dead"

an interesting observation, I thought.

CV said...

@McF

I only "hate" the guy that beat me by 6 tenths of a point in one of my fantasy leagues over the weekend...

I'm sitting there with Ryan Mathews & Malcom Floyd "praying" for 6 yards at the end of the game - lol

karen said...

the bells are ringing the final hour, CV..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Did you guys see this chart from Zerohedge? If it is as it appears, it appears pretty drastically bad...(pension funding)...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/shirakawa/pfi_aug_graph1.gif

CV said...

Speaking of "bells ringing"...

To all you who watch COLLEGE FOOTBALL... I'm getting pretty damn sick and tired of the home team RINGING THE BELL OF DOOM of every 3rd down of their opponent...

It's getting kind of lame now that everybody does it...

--- on that note ---

"lame bitchez!" :-)

karen said...

you all know what is on the data table for tomorrow, i suppose..

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/EconodayFrame.asp

Nic said...

That pension funding chart is not good ...

karen said...

why didn't they just invest in JNK ???

McFearless said...

JNK, no way, apple, netflix

c'mon man!

who needs dividends when you can get cap app....bitchez

McFearless said...

the coming pension crisis will be a very sad one, so many people that are 80-85% reliant on those pensions, spent their whole life never saving a dime because they had that in their back pocket, or they thought they did.

the segment of the population that is going to hit can't work out of it, it's going to be bad, my generation that decides to work in the private sector will never know about pensions and I've not met anyone my age that is still brain dead about collecting SS, but at least we have time.

McFearless said...

could be a small barrier forming again, a nice fractal of the larger one that anyone could see...I "feel" like we are about to turn, but gut feeling is not for trading of course:

http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2010/09/real-time-update-91410.html

karen said...

SkyNewsBreak

The Eiffel Tower and the surrounding area in Paris are evacuated following a bomb alert, the AFP news agency reports.

bob said...

USD 81.35

karen said...

mrtopstep

*DJ Container Traffic Thru Los Angeles Port Hits Highest Level In 4 Yrs DJ Container Traffic Through Port Of Los Angeles Up 24.7% In Aug. $

McFearless said...

dollar is about to get bounced right on out of my account

ahhh, pos dollar

karen said...

zerohedge

The 3:30 pm ramp is completely and totally unexpected

CV said...

BETTER THAN UNEXPECTED

AmenRa said...

SPX couldn't hold the 61.8% retrace (1127.11) for the monthly 3LB range. Got the hell out of some call options on the 2nd test. Phew.

McFearless said...

oh wow am I pissed at myself right now, day of my last draft I'm telling some of the guys I'm in the league with....dont' take Ryan Grant, he's gonna get hurt this year

fast forward to the draft and who do I take anyway?

you guessed it


GIB is ME

McFearless said...

zero hedge

ror
awesome call there...

mcHAPPY said...

Anyone noticing the 10y? For the last two days with risk on certainly ON, we've gone from 2.80 to currently 2.66.

McFearless said...

mcHappy,

yep, there is a disturbance in the force.

karen said...

the DIA candles are slightly more interesting than the SPY candles on this close...

Anonymous said...

"I'm trippin balls right now" (from yesterdays video)

karen said...

mcHappy... i almost posted about the tnx earlier.. yeah.. buy gold and treasuries.. they both yield nothing.. unless it's a bet that the dollar will be worth more in the future..

I-Man said...

McF,

Fi sho...

There is something afoot. NOT a constructive close there...

AmenRa said...

Ben

Weekly 3LB confirmation no more (3 more days).

McFearless said...

am I having selective memory?

I don't remember in June or in August when we touched the top of this range that so many were calling for higher prices, I mean, that's all I've seen last few days, not calls for 1200's, but for 1,300's!

I dont' remember people being so bullish out there in June or August....maybe 1127 was it as a result of all the euphoria, but lets let this thing play out.

AmenRa said...

...and the 30 min 3LB reversed down earlier today.

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I've never seen that MTU site before. Thank you.

McFearless said...

Ra,

not sure if you caught it but thanks again for the 3lb explanations last night, much appreciated.

bob said...

GIB is ME

I just spoke with urban outfitters. You will see hipsters wearing it within the month.

McFearless said...

Mchappy,

if you troll Dan's enough you can find some good sites get linked up there. Kenny's site seems to have vanished since the big fight a month or so ago, too bad, kenny is really good at TA, not so good at social interaction.

I-Man said...

Great video by Tim! He nailed it!

Classic lower high/failure at the 78.6 (this mornings 10432 low to 10523 high) on todays YM 5min chart at 10513.

Traded like a douche today (chasing) and didnt make anything off the nice moves tho... tackle this shit again tomorrow.

Later,
-I

McFearless said...

days like today are also a good reminder about H&S's....that inverse was getting a lot of coverage....but it seems that neckline might foil those efforts, it's really not a great H&S anyway.

McFearless said...

some people have labeled the move off the highs today as 5 down....I don't know that this is correct, but I'm putting it out there anyway, awful deep retracement if that was a five

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Still probably a good idea to have your medical care/surgery in the US:

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2010/09/14/update-new-drug-resistant-superbugs-states/

UPDATE: New Drug-Resistant Superbugs Found in 3 States

BOSTON – An infectious-disease nightmare is unfolding: Bacteria that have been made resistant to nearly all antibiotics by an alarming new gene have sickened people in three states and are popping up all over the world, health officials reported Monday.

The U.S. cases and two others in Canada all involve people who had recently received medical care in India, where the problem is widespread. A British medical journal revealed the risk last month in an article describing dozens of cases in Britain in people who had gone to India for medical procedures.


..of course less general antibiotics, and research on new antibiotics would be of great benefit.

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