Morning Audibles - 9.16.10

Random stuff this morning for this OPEX Thursday...



Geithner Says U.S. Examining Ways to Push China on Yuan Rise

"The U.S. yesterday filed a pair of complaints against its second-largest trading partner with the World Trade Organization, and lawmakers facing elections in November are introducing measures allowing companies to pursue sanctions against China for its currency stance..."

Busy guy, that TG... Here he was earlier in the day explaining how to avoid the "double dip"...

NO DOUBLE DIP

Nice to see he's on the same page with his boss...

Obama Turns Focus to Trade as Way to Encourage Economic Growth

"The report recommends the government increase the number trade missions and step up promotion abroad, increase financing for the purchase of U.S. exports and finish work on pending free trade accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama.

Friction With China

The advisory group didn’t address the value of China’s currency, which labor unions and some lawmakers argue is a barrier to U.S. exports and job growth..."

Let me get this straight... We're AT ODDS with China on currency manipulation, and will probably start mouthing off about TARIFFS, yet we want to pursue FREE TRADE agreements so as to "double exports"... Did I get that right?

Oh, and what's on the table, (to "step up" exports), is to "increase financing for the purchase of U.S. exports"... Yeah sure... That strategy worked real well for LUCENT... Anybody remember them?

If not, I'm sure many will remember this...






But my question is... Why all the fuss?... I mean, weren't we FORCE FED a trillion dollar stimulus package at the beginning of this Administration (along with countless programs called, "Cash for Clunkers", "tax credits on homes", foreclosure relief, shovel ready jobs, extended unemployment benefits, bailouts, guarantees, backstops), hell, we even got a bump by employing census workers... We should be in the clear by now, right?


Where did all the money go? Where are all the jobs created?


Umm... Not HERE I guess...



FedEx Reports Profit That Trails Estimates, Announces Job Cuts

FedEx Corp., the second-largest U.S. package-shipping company, forecast earnings for the current quarter that fell short of analysts’ estimates, and said it will eliminate 1,700 jobs...

I suppose there's only one thing left to do... Just pump it into the stock market... Hell - EASY AL even said over this past summer that he'd be on board with that... Anything... Anything at all to cover up this mess...

Retirement on Hold: American Workers $6 Trillion Short

This comes amid recent reports indicating that a White House-created panel is considering proposals to cut Social Security benefits and raise the retirement age.

But CV is WAY too 'pessimistic', right?... My biggest problem, obviously, is that I don't see the POWER that these "behind the scenes" lever pullers actually possess... I mean hell... You can see it in STOCK PRICES right? The stock market is going up so the economy must be fine... THINK PINK (I oughta)...

Excuse me, but until I see some real acknowledgement of the problems, all I see is this...




238 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 238   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

Oh wait...

I didn't have to go thru all that bother... Here's the SIMPLETON version...

How to Tell When the Recession's Really Over

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/How-to-Tell-When-the-usnews-2991153962.html?x=0

Got that?... I now return everyone to their regularly scheduled blog commenting...

CV said...

Obama - Geithner - Bernanke - & the S&P are apparently the only ones who "don't get it"...

The 10 American Industries That May Never Recover

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110592/the-10-american-industries-that-will-never-recover

call me ahab said...

nothing like a good laugh in the morning-

"GM CEO: repayment of bailout could take years"


hahahahahaha- no shit?

call me ahab said...

CV-

that Costanza clip is a classic- is that Geithner eyeballing him from the corner?

On the ready to stop any "Double Dip" it appears

CV said...

This is the kind of DOUBLE DIP that CV may enjoy...

http://www.fieldandstream.com/blogs/hunting/2010/09/texas-chef-successfully-deep-friesbeer

call me ahab said...

. . .and please- would everyone make a little stop at TBP and post an idea or two for BR's 7 economic stimulus ideas-

BR's got it all down- he always knows exactly what to do- Genius? Perfect? I'll let you be the judge

AmenRa said...

EUC + Extended benefits = 500k. Exhaustion continues unabated.

call me ahab said...

When diners take a bite the hot beer mixes with the dough in what is claimed to be a delicious taste sensation.

wow- why wasn't this thought of sooner?

ror

CV said...

@ahab

CV's "stimulus" suggestion? = STOP

Anonymous said...

I haven't been to tTBP in over a year. Barry is like Krugman. He used to do interesting stuff before he turned into a political hack.

call me ahab said...

CV-

what- you didn't like my $1,000,000 for every American or my R&D for cold fusion ideas-

both winners:-)!!!

CV said...

@ahab

I'm simply tired of all the "whatfore" "whereto" arguments on the subject...

I'm tired of people thinking they can FIX things... They can't... They never will...

Any "fix" to the system is only designed to elongate the STATUS QUO for the "elite" class (bankers & politicians)...

Each and every policy "fix" transfers MORE and MORE wealth in their direction, and confiscates it from the middle class...

It appears that more than half of the middle class (the "hope & changers"), are too gullible to understand this...

If you voted for Obama in 2008, consider yourself one of those FOOLS...

If you STILL believe there's hope... You're delusional...

CV said...

@ahab (9:28)

Great ideas... both... But sorry - they gave the NOBEL PRIZE to Obama...

call me ahab said...

I'm hopeful-

that the RuPaul's get their shit together and win a game this week-

as far as the USG- small is BIG (CVism?) in my book

CV said...

@ahab

The problem is... If we ever elect someone who has the "balls" to stand up to the banking cartel...

The "banking cartel" will manage the situation in the same way they handled JFK...

McFearless said...

"and please- would everyone make a little stop at TBP and post an idea or two for BR's 7 economic stimulus ideas"

yep, just like I said yesterday

"ah, the arrogance of all with any name large enough that they get to speak publicly about markets and the economy, they are all the same, every single one of them, they all have the right solution that only they came up with, all of them involving the magical stoppage of a 50+ year debt binge and the idea that a bubble can be unwound nice and orderly like."

McFearless said...

are others starting to notice that it seems some big companies are just now going through another round of sizeable firings...it's not the mass layoffs we've seen before, how could it be, but I count AZN, Lockheed, and this morning Fed-Ex as three companies planning to do some sizeable lay-offs in the next couple of months, don't forget Meredith's claim as well, which is that there will be 80,000 on wall st over the next...(forget her timeline, 18 months?), given those write-off figures yesterday which is well above industry average and the fact that they are selling off RE servicing rights BAC is an obvious candidate.

call me ahab said...

CV-

did you catch that Rockefeller clip b22 posted?

that was "off the hook"

CV said...

"all of them involving the magical stoppage of a 50+ year debt binge and the idea that a bubble can be unwound nice and orderly like."

---

That's CV's entire point...

So people laugh at me when I say something silly like STOP... "Yeah - like that's really a solution - go home CV, we have HARVARD minds working on this"...

I got news for you... THERE IS NO ORDERLY SOLUTION... As soon as you get that idea firmly entrenched in your dome, you can begin to address the reality...

The rest is just wasting my time... (Though you all make cute PEZ DISPENSERS opening and closing your flaps like that and barfing up little candy bricks)...

CV said...

@ahab

didn't catch it... but I'll go back and look...

CV said...

@McF @ahab

I don't want to bother with it here... But I "gotta" show you some IN DEPTH CHART ANALYSIS that I picked up on a blog this past Monday...

I'll post it up in the FF message board...

It's hysterical!

McFearless said...

so there is an interesting dynamic at work right now with regards to volatility in contrast to prices you can see on options.

if you look across a lot of things like I did last night on the PUT side you are going to notice right away that despite a declining VIX recently that puts are not cheap at all, in fact, some of them are expensive. so traders are still fearful based on puts despite the vix basically saying that all is well, no double dip, whatever phrase you prefer.

There was a similar relationship twice since April, one being very early in April, I believe right around 4/5 or 4/6, now we know how that ended up but if we saw it 4/5 or 4/6....well it took time.

The best way I could try to interpret what I'm seeing is that I lean with what Andy said last night, I'm fairly certain we are going to spike higher here before we go down, and given this bifurcation in puts vs. vix I'd lean more toward the 1140-1150 range than I would a stoppage at 1130 because we know at least some of those shorts still need to cover and they will cover.

I'm not sure we'll be lucky enough to get the answers this week, it would seem more likely we run up into the dates the I-man was talking about 9/22 or 9/23 before we see the completion.

guess we'll no if it was worth me typing this out by next week.

McFearless said...

ahab,

aaron russo is very believable isn't he?

You know I've watched a lot of those interviews with him, I find them all compelling, I'll also admit the first time I watched him discuss plans for the RFID chip I literally got chills, freaked me out.

CV said...

Small Business Can't Get Loans From Bailed-Out Banks in U.S.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-16/small-business-can-t-get-loans-from-banks-bailed-out-by-taxpayers-in-u-s-.html

---

No comment necessary

call me ahab said...

b22-

and all those folks posting over there w/ their ideas- so earnest and right thinking-

as if anyone cares what's coming out of their little minds

McFearless said...

eh, I didn't read the comments in the thread, they will probably just piss me off, and it's not even 10 yet, so why do that to myself.

CV said...

@McF

Your comments at (9:48) go "hand in hand" with what I've been saying for the past week or two about watching the VIX WEEKLY BB's...

A scenario as you describe (a breakout above 1130 and move to upwards of what Andy was hinting as possible yesterday), might have the effect of making the VIX go down and hit that lower BB...

Since it's a WEEKLY VIX, it still may take awhile to play out... Which also means that this C wave may not be over yet...

CV said...

@ahab

Let me put it this way...

If I couldn't care less about what BR is saying... Then I'm HARDLY interested in knowing what a F411 or Thor is thinking, or layering on top of BR's thoughts...

call me ahab said...

MEH called someone a "sick fuck" over at TBP-

lol-

and I thought I was bad

b22-

yeah it was pretty wild- the chip idea- that's some scary shit- I have heard of parent's inserting chip in babies so they can be located-

maybe that's the start

call me ahab said...

CV-

I like to be counter cyclical to the comment thread at TBP-

it gives me a laugh:-)!!

CV said...

Imagine this...

OK everybody... BR is trying to take the BEST PARTS of a Krugman...

Now - let's just lock them up in a room together with Thor, Franklin 411, & cognose, and we'll be sure to have it all banged out by the morning...

ROR

call me ahab said...

fyi- "counter cyclical" should be in quotes and is a swipe at BR's Keynesian blather

CV said...

Here... Here's a scene on how that meeting may look like...

With any of the above mentioned playing the role of "Cruiser"...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=einZgVrnfG0

karen said...

good morning!! how will I ever catch up now.. ahab @9:51, i've had those same thots when reading T

OH! GREAT NEWS! just got a call from my older son.. my younger son was operated on last night! ruptured appendix!

CV said...

@karen

Ouch... Our best wishes go out...

call me ahab said...

and BR had a big thread up from "Cassandra does Tokyo"

the very same person who said voting should be mandatory-

there are always those wanting to make things mandatory because they think they know best-

but if we are "free" - then we are free "not" to do something- right?

CV said...

@ahab

Yeah that's the next best thing in the evolutionary process...

FORCE us to vote for your Manchurian Candidate...

McFearless said...

MEH, that guy rocks, very interesting dude.

ahab,

re: chip,

yeah, maybe I can clarify my comment on Russo since it might be confusing for some people because I think people constantly misinterpret what I say about the Fed/"they" and conspiracy theory.

are there people out there trying to push an agenda, trying to manipulate markets, etc: of course, I don't deny this, I'm pretty convinced "they" exist.

do I think they can impose their agenda at will: no they can't and this is where I differ from most people, I think they always have to wait for mood to "ask for it" so to speak, so in effect it is "the people" that ultimately decide when their agenda goes "in force", not "they"

those RFID chips, it's interesting how the buzz is growing that they are "good for the safety of children" and this is how they are slowly being introduced, as I'm to understand it some kids already have them and that this buzz has grown tremendously since 9/11 and is being furthered via the Patriot Act, etc.

I heard parents say things like, oh well I want my baby to have the RFID chip in case he/she gets kidnapped.

Well, how logical is that? What are the odds the baby is going to be kinapped in the first place, and if they are, what are the odds you get them back alive just because they have an RFID chip.

I don't doubt the Rockefellers or whomever has been wanting to do this for a long long time, but they weren't "allowed" to do it until the net social mood started to demand it.

hope that makes sense, if it sounds crazy, so be it.

karen said...

Can you even believe this market? My older son sent me the funniest line this morning.. "I think I can find a cheaper ticket to insane." That describes how I feel about attempt being involved with this mess..

McFearless said...

you know I was just thinking when I woke up this morning, ....

we could probably use a few more czars to overlook some things.

also, yesterday I saw some claims from some famous "experts" that gold was a "bubble"

I think the use of that term is becoming way too common anymore.

CV said...

CV will just go "Minority Report" on them...

problem solved...

CV said...

Can't I just fill out paperwork and to tell the government which bathroom I took a crap in for the past 4 weeks?

I'm sure Obama will need a CZAR appointed for that...

McFearless said...

find a cheaper ticket to insane

I like that, might have to use that at least once today.

McFearless said...

I'm just waiting for them to announce an annual census, for jobs and such.

CV said...

@karen

This was supposed to be "THE SUMMER OF HOPE", remember?

Summer's not over yet (officially)... I guess there's still one HOPE left...

AmenRa said...

There are so many gaps on the SPX 1-min chart my head is spinning. The bulls and bears are truly fighting for position this morning.

karen said...

Ben.. he originally texted me this morning that he would never have kids.. I said, "Why? Do you think you will have a child like Rud? Do you think you couldn't cope? Do you think they are too expensive? Do you think they are not worth the trouble?" His reply, "All good points, I think I can find a lower cost ticket to insane."

McFearless said...

you know, the idea of roads and bridges construction, well, it's all good in theory, but here's the thing, I don't know anyone having trouble getting to and fro because of the roads....aren't the roads, on the whole, fine?

Now, I'm not a PhD. so please don't yell at me, but my simple mind thinks it would be better to wait until we actually had the money to fix things, otherwise this is what we are doing:

http://freedomkeys.com/window.htm

call me ahab said...

b22-

the whole chip idea is repugnant- and that parents get them so they can locate their kids- what a joke-

it was interesting- in the Rockefeller clip- that the chip idea would make you into a surf- because if you did not live up to "Big Brother's" expectation-

they turn off the chip's ability to pay for food, housing etc . . .

but I find it hard to believe that people wouldn't find other ways to survive regardless-

assuming the people would allow themselves to be subjected to "the chip" in the first place-

the whole idea seems to be right out of a Philip K Dick story

McFearless said...

Karen,

interesting comment from your son, and I know a lot of people that feel the same way, as I claimed over a year ago at Andy's, (something some others took issue with) was that birth rates were going to fall as long as the bear market continued.

if you take the dow and overlap it with annual birth rates by *moving rates of birth back 9 months you'll find quite a correlation.

the theory is that people have more sex, and more kids, during positive social mood, which RP presented back in 1999 as follows:

"In a bull market, when aggregate feelings of friskiness, daring, and confidence wax, people engage in more sexual activity with the aim of having children. When these feelings wane (bear market), so does the desire for generating offspring."

*Also: Because it takes nine months between the procreative impulse and a child's birth, the trend in annual data on births should lag an important stock market turn by a year or so.

I can't find the image free online of the US data but check this out:

Japan's experience: From 1989 to 2003, the Nikkei Average endured an unrelenting bear market to all-time record lows; all the while, the nation's birth rates also turned south.
In May 2003, the Nikkei hit bottom and set off on a powerful uptrend. After dipping to a historic low, Japan's birth rate then ROSE on cue in 2006 for the first time in six years. From there, both the Nikkei and the (unofficial) "Nookie" index rallied in sync until the former turned down from its July 2007 high.
And now: The Nikkei stands 40%-plus below its 2007 peak, while Japan's birth rate struggles to rise.

right now we don't have enough of a sample size too claim certainty on this theory but so far it continues to play out as expected.

where they have failed a bit to provide more data is what has happened in China and India, I've never looked into it, Australia would be another interesting case study for different reasons.

McFearless said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
McFearless said...

ahab,

re: chip, you could probably start a screenplay with ideas from your 10:28, your Kurt cobain post was good, you should go for it.

call me ahab said...

CV-

and the banking cartel . . .the Supreme Court came down on their side (campaign donations)-

all the $$$- all the power

CV said...

Since Obama likes to compare himself with Bush so much, I'll pose a "hypothetical" question...

Let's imagine for a moment... that the famous THEY control markets and equity prices...

If there is a THEY, then I imagine it existed all along... To be used by whoever needed it at the moment...

IN THAT HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO - Who would have been right?

2008
Bush? Elections were coming... If he had mechanisms at his disposal, why didn't he prop up the stock market in an attempt to save seats in the Congress & Senate?... I mean, if Bush could have created the "illusion" that all was well, people wouldn't have freaked out and gone the other way... Right?

Am I wrong to think that either:

a) The 'mechanisms' were simply not in place, despite the potential desire of an Administration to have, even if illusory, a market that wasn't in crisis?

b) Could Bush have "intervened" more aggressively (by having the Fed prop up asset prices)? If so... Would that maneuver have been HONEST (or even helpful) towards any long lasting re-structuring?...

2010
Obama?

1. Is the economy actually working right now? Are the markets simply reflecting this? Is Obama a "genius" for things like allowing a FASB rule change (which is the only reason ANY bank isn't completely insolvent)...

2. Is the market being "propped up", and if so, WHO is it benefitting?... And if the answer to that question is... "THE ELITE, at the expense of Middle America"... Is the POTUS doing his job of serving the people?

Compare yourself, in that way, to the guy who used to keep your seat warm Mr. POTUS...

I'm all ears...

McFearless said...

man what a stupid mistake, I read the BR thread anyway, some of these suggestions, I don't even know what to say


high speed internet to every home and maybe even nationalize the internet?

WTF?

now it's 10:30 and I need a drink.

call me ahab said...

surf = serf on my 10:28-

duh

CV said...

@McF (10:39)

Get with the program!

Didn't you know that getting high speed internet to "toothless Bubba" in Kentucky was the key in getting us out of the doldrums?

CV said...

... at least "toothless Bubba" would have some nice fast porn sites to visit so he wouldn't have to waste his time with his goats or his cousin...

That ought to help the PRODUCTIVITY numbers...

McFearless said...

that post is just nonsense, clear the debt, but create these other debts over here that are "good debts", sorry but roads aren't really self liquidating debt, unless you pay a fee to travel on all of them in which case, that's not a huge help to "the people"

like I said, everyone's got their on special solution that "works"

if only we had an idea czar to bring them all together, we could....we could re-write a better constitution I say!

CV said...

Change You Can Chart: 2009 US Poverty Rate Highest Since 1994, 43.6 Million Americans Living Below Poverty Line

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/change-you-can-chart-2009-us-poverty-rate-highest-1994-436-million-americans-living-below-po

"Perhaps the president should just go back to a permanent vacation status, and just let Wall Street add another 10-20 million to this statistic in 2010, as the US middle class continues to disappear just so it can fund the exorbitant lifestyles of some 100,000 people."

CV said...

"we could re-write a better constitution I say"

---

What? and do away with the old ones? No WAY!

The old ones were written on HEMP... That would be a terrible thing to waste...

McFearless said...

here's is a trade idea, find the modern day economic textbook ETF and short the hell out of it.

that's gotta be a good call.

call me ahab said...

yeah-

that "economic stimulus" post at TBP cracks me up-

it's all nonsense-

b22-

an "idea czar"- now that is a great idea:-)!

CV said...

Idea czar?

I'd nominate the White House "travel agent" booking coordinator...

Seems to be the only one doing a bang up job thus far...

McFearless said...

did anyone trade this morning yet?

how'd that go?

holy chop batman

CV said...

@McF

It's the POMO algos and the "elections" algos VERSUS the "distribution" algos...

I'm hardly even watching it...

McFearless said...

uup not looking good either, wondering if the DXY could get all the way back to 77 and change again? or 80 at the minimum.

guess everyone is waiting for japan's 170th attempt at intervention.

Ninja bitchez

McFearless said...

wonder how the I-man is holding up.

McFearless said...

I picked up McNabb in our league, nobody else wanted him?

call me ahab said...

it's all hopeless-

did you guys see the last few shows of George Carlin-

that dude became quite the cynic- his observation that "you have no rights" and that the people who control the county (not the politicians) but the folks who really hold the power-

they don't give a shit about you-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYIC0eZYEtI

CV said...

@McF

Oh and also... I guess some expert must be in there DOUBLING DOWN on the Crude bets from Monday off this thread I saw...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_7MNEv8qtfOc/TI4syw_RJRI/AAAAAAAAAUE/nE4STQMG408/s1600/OIL+ETF.png

"Last night the e-minis broke out of the coil to the upside. Oil broke out it's wedge, as well as the NDX. Frday's strength in Crude was the "tell" that this market was going higher and today October Crude is surging ahead."

McFearless said...

I got out of the CAT short already, I dont' like what I see this morning, there are no sellers, no pressure to the downside.

CV said...

Probably only PRACTICE $$ so I doubt anyone got hurt - ror

call me ahab said...

I was looking at McNabb since my backup Stafford appears to be out for several weeks-

who was your backup?

CV said...

anyone want to trade me for FLACCO?

call me ahab said...

BR- can't even get a rise out of him anymore- ever since I made fun of John Kerry's purple hearts (glory seeker?)- which he then edited and sent me a nasty gram-

dude just can't take a joke anymore-

ror

CV said...

@McF

On CAT...

It would seem to me that CAT, right now, is caught in the vortex of gold & silver moving higher...

Regardless of the "funny mentals" on CAT, if people think gold is going to $3,000, & silver breaks out, CAT would just seem to be a low beta on that theme at the moment...

POS dollar helps that idea along...

karen said...

Okay, i'm back.. tried to catch up again.. my oil short is fine.. my gold short, not so much but it's hedged : )

I told you this market is insane.. I love Ben's 10:54..

McFearless said...

it's a little hard to say futures have broken out until we bust out above 1130, which I still think is going to happen, while some of this has charachteristcs of accumulation, and according to Lowry's that's whats happening, it's too early to say anything else, not to mention, the breakout could be a head fake based on some very valid wave counts.

I don't really follow oil much, just no good at trading it, don't have enough experience, but does it actually have any predictive value for stocks as a leading indicator? I sort of remember how in 2008 oil was going up, as in way up, and it didn't mean anything for stocks but trouble, I'll overlap the two, i wasn't aware of a strong correlation there, would seem more techs use copper.

CV said...

@ahab

BR... Pretty grumpy for someone who believes we're in a TYPICAL RECOVERY and who is a lapdog for the current regime...

At least CV has a REASON to be grumpy...

I don't think this is a recovery, and I hate the regime...

McFearless said...

mcNabb is my back-up now, i dropped Sanchez, I'll start P Rivers almost every game anyway, but you know, McNabb could have a huge game agains the right team, he's still a pretty good QB imo.

call me ahab said...

CV-

it was kind of funny- BR editing my post on John Kerry-

shows his stripes

b22-

I've always liked McNabb- he took it on the chin in Philly day one- but never let it get him down

CV said...

@McF

In 2008, the "notion" of higher crude wasn't all that difficult to convince people of because it was still believed

THE CHINA GROWTH STORY

was the beginning and end all to any "growth concerns"...

Now it's run into a barrier...

The barrier that more are thinking "SHOW ME" (with regards to growth)... & stop pumping me full of your filthy lies...

So that creates a natural barrier for crude at about the $80 level...

That's the perfect PH balance for Obama's Saudi (I bow to you) "puppetteers" can accept for their monthly nut, without tossing sandbags full of sand on to whatever gear of the American economy happens to be functioning)...

McFearless said...

I liked Maxcherry's chart here:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p87326148534&a=207588562&listNum=12

would imply higher prices as well, no wave stuff on this one.

CV said...

Of course... Could always go higher...

Hell - it could go to $300 (while the DOW goes to 36,000)...

But trust me... There won't be a bull on the planet who actually makes any profit with DOW 36,000 because his cost for a loaf of bread just went to $20...

karen said...

"As we mentioned on Monday in our comments "Here comes the herd", we have been there before: what was missing earlier this week with the move to the 1130 S&P area was some kind of excitement about a "game changing" event like we had in June (China FX) and in August (Fed). Well, we got that now with QE(n) the "new" old reason for aggressive moves across Risk assets. It's quite amazing to see how emotions are shifting so quickly and how the animal spirits are so easily resurrected, although the fears to take any initiative are still very much present: the latest AAII reading came out overnight with a big jump up to 28.8% net bullish score. To put this in perspective, this is the highest since May 08 (when the earnings bid story to buy Equities was the consensus...). Of course, like the ECRI or the recent regional surveys in the US, expect the bulls to now question the validity of the data, take you back in time to more extreme readings in early 2007 or 2005 or to focus on the Economic surprises Indices. Like falling volumes in the face of a rising markets (as we learned in March and April this year), these sentiment indicators are not the perfect timing indicators but they are raising a few warning flags, at least suggesting we may be due a bit of a breather.... Yes, the market has been defying gravity so far and the bid might well stay into the quarterly expiry tomorrow (roll of in the money calls injecting positive delta in the market). We would advise to be cautious again at this market juncture and use this strength to replace long exposure with non linear instruments (read "embedded stop loss products"). To be clear, this is not an aggressive bearish call (there will be a time for this too), rather a recommendation to focus on Risk Management/Mitigation in the short term again. With indices and many stocks at the top of the range (if you believe in such things) and a very steep implied volatility term structure (i.e. short dated in bargain basement), now is the time to look at stock/futures replacement. As long as we break to the upside or fall back to the lower end of the range, you will be better off. Markets sitting still at the top of the range would be the unfavorable outcome. The additional benefit of sleeping better at night should also not be forgotten."

CV said...

@McF (11:33)

If you like that chart, it would make sense that to get this thing up in the range where the NYMO peaked would be accomplished by pushing AAPL beyond it's barrier...

AAPL is something like 20% of the Naz right now, and about 10 issues account for more than 50%...

Makes sense in a lot of ways...

A WAVE 2 (or B) ending would be accompanied by some kind of chart breakout on the most popular stock on the planet...

call me ahab said...

. . .so what does everyone think of Dwayne Bowe eventually being able to hang onto the ball-

reminds of Franklin from The Replacements-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZtSA9lGfk8

CV said...

Dwayne Bowe should have a better year this year...

His main problem is only Matt Cassell's noodle arm...

McFearless said...

market is taking a breather?

um, ok, but

my charts tell me it's been resting or taking this breather for just about 10 months now

who is that karen? Judging by the way it's written I bet whoever that is they have a boatload of AUM, oh so careful not to come across as bearish or bullish.

also, another example of people reading AAII in an absolute manner rather than looking at that bearish percentage in light of the secular bear market we are in, or the ratio of bears compared to other periods of market decline, the jump by itself in any given week reveals nothing at all, but hey, when everyone is a contrarian.....

McFearless said...

right now I'm more worried about Garcon hanging on to the ball, he had a ton of drops last weekend, one of which should have been a touchdown, still managed 75 yards though, and got a lot of targets.

CV said...

Giants have a weak secondary, so Garcon should get some looks this week...

CV said...

And YOU KNOW Manning has studied the defense of his little bro...

karen said...

that blurb came to me from my MS friend with the subject line reading: "Risk-off" period ahead?

and the first line of text reading: Some thoughts from our trading desk..

He sent it to me and one other Chicken Little, who thinks like we do : )

McFearless said...

re: AAII,

I mean, doesn't anyone else find it just a little curious that we've gone 10 years with an average loss in the S&P of something like 3.5% per year, and yet less than 30% of survey respondents are bearish but this is considered a big jump in negative sentiment and is potentially "bullish for stocks".


come on man!

McFearless said...

ah, MS, yeah they have a few bucks under mgmt, lol.

CV said...

Garcon has some of the characteristics of Steve Smith (Panthers)... strong hands - fights for ball...

SS scored a TD vs. the Giants last week...

McFearless said...

yeah, I went back and forth last night, should I start Welker against the jets or Garcon against the giants....I'll flip on that 10 more times until sunday, won't do both because i will start colston again and I like to play an RB in my felx spot most of the time.

wondering if forte's knee is a little worse than he wants anyone to know, he could end up having a really good year this year even though i think Chicago blows.

CV said...

I'd start 'em BOTH...

Randy Moss is going to be on REVIS ISLAND all game (meaning Welker is going to get the bulk of the work)...

I'm predicting the Saints to come out flat (maybe even LOSE to the 49ers on Monday Night)...

call me ahab said...

I think there is a chance that McNabb and Santana Moss together can resurrect their careers

CV said...

Cutler is going to get sacked 13 times by Dallas...

Forte isn't getting any 200+ yards this week...

CV said...

@ahab

I agree

call me ahab said...

I hope that Revis Island prediction doesn't pan out

CV said...

Welker will be facing Antonio Cromartie most of the game...

Cromartie is a talented athlete, but that usually shows up against "poor" QB's & wideouts (or slot receivers, in the case of Welker)...

Baltimore used and abused him last week...

The only reason it didn't show up in the stats was because Cromartie kept having to get flagged for penalties...

Same result tho...

CV said...

@ahab

REVIS "owned" Randy Moss last year... (BOTH GAMES)...

Moss scored one touchdown (in the 2nd game), but that was simply on an UNDEFENSABLE play at the goal line...

CV said...

Revis called RM a "slouch"... LOL

Should be fun :-)

call me ahab said...

Moss needs to get off Revis Island-

slouch or no slouch

karen said...

vid on fdx as a bellweather for economy: http://chart.ly/ir8lwkw

CV said...

Here's a "sneak preview" for one of my game write-ups for this week...

---

"The Bears are who they thought they were" (1-0) at the team that AIN'T (0-1) (1:00 EST)
Line:
Cowboys by 7.5

Take my advice, Cowboys, enjoy your home opener here against the half-hapless "Mike Martz & the traveling All-Stars & Motor Kings", because you're certainly NOT going to be playing a game here next February if you don't get your offensive line issues taken care of... PRONTO...

That wish may actually be granted as it's been reported that left guard Kyle Kosier and right tackle Marc Colombo could be back for the Chicago game... They REALLY need Colombo in there asap... Versus the Redskins, former Rams coach Jim Haslett (now DC for DC) knew what to do on every down against former Ram reject Alex Barron... When Barron is in the game, there are more flags on the field than the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games...

You mean to tell me that the Cowboys ditch "karate kick" master Flozell Adams, only to replace him with a "Randy Orton" chokehold master?

Even if these additions help Dallas, they'll still have to get their act together... Newly acquired Julius Peppers (Bears) may decide to add Tony Romo to his hit list this week after sending Matt Stafford to the sidelines for 8 weeks in week 1...

Romo is a bit more mobile, but it remains to be seen how much production the Cowboys might be able to count on if the bears shut down the Cowboys as they did the Lions last week...

For da Bears... This amounts to WEEK 2 of the Mike Martz "russian roulette" extravaganza against Jay Cutler... Last week, Cutler managed to escape the chamber with the bullet in it, but there's a chance for this game to devolve into a "sack-o-rama"...

I hate both of these teams at the moment... Dallas will only get my respect when they settle their offensive line issues, and the Bears... Well, I'll get back to you on that one... I'll flip a coin here and side with the COWBOYS (only because the public "hates" them for the embarrassing loss in Washington)... A whopping (0 units)...

karen said...

hahaha.. just ran a chart of FDX with SPX and XAD overlaid.. i don't have to tell you any of you it's all one trade..

CV said...

@karen

It's a "stock pickers" market...

(you either take the SSO or the SDS - ror)

CV said...

... and WHATEVER YOU DO...

If you were thinking about (or even BLOGGING about)... going long USO last Monday...

You back slowly away from the buffet table and quietly tiptoe your ass towards the door...

CV said...

@karen

But I kno I should talk right?

CV - karen - & AngloGold

"hedgers" EXTRAORDINNAIRE on out gold positions - ror

call me ahab said...

gotta roll-

all have a good day

I-Man said...

How is the I holding up?

Less than ideal to be honest...

I-Man said...

Just wait until McNabb makes the ProBowl this year...

(As back up to Drew Brees)

AmenRa said...

This opex week is turning into an opexecution week. Just sayin'.

karen said...

what ever you do.. do not put up a $copper - $spx overlay chart..

ugh.. even worse.. do not, do not put up an xlf - jjc chart..

McFearless said...

yep, I pretty much stopped overlapping charts like that karen, 90% of them look basically identical.

karen said...

iatcurrency

RT @zerohedge: EU's Juncker says unilateral intervention of Japan to weaken JPY is not to be welcomed. Central Bank Fight Club just started!

karen said...

Is this what popped the market? http://www.cnbc.com/id/39214349

The Senate has passed a bill to create a $30 billion government fund to help open lending for credit-starved small businesses, cut their taxes and boost federal loan programs for them.

McFearless said...

ah race to devalue is so 1930's

As if!

McFearless said...

"The Senate has passed a bill to create a $30 billion government fund to help open lending for credit-starved small businesses, cut their taxes and boost federal loan programs for them."


Where is the follow up para? You know, the one that starts out:

The White House Demand Czar said Thursday, "We still have no idea how to drive demand, but we are getting some smart people together on this."

_____________________________________________

Also, here I go again...

Is $30 billion big?

McFearless said...

now, if you guys want real answers, then look no further than this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/companynews-18928726/keeping-america-competitive-21929819;_ylt=Au5OS2OO0UXB5tdVXFGdF.W7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTB1ZWswZ3JoBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN2aWRlb3MEc2xrA3BsYXl2aWRlbw--

and as part of his intro, how fitting "former everything practically"

now isn't that special

(church lady)

CV said...

"Just wait until McNabb makes the ProBowl this year"...

I'll sell that...

Brees probably backs up RODGERS...

CV said...

@Amen

more like FLOP -ex week...

CV said...

$30 billion?

Hmmm... Not zilcho for markets... But maybe OK on votes...

Let's see who that helps...

$30 billion for "small businesses" that have the DEMOGRAPHICS to vote Demographic...

Hmmm... I wonder if I'll qualify if I get the loan to start a "crack house" in my neighborhood...

CV said...

how about a nail salon?

palm reading?

"POPEYES" franchize?

McFearless said...

oh, and if you can't stomach that whole video I posted (understandable) I would just encourage you to ff to the 8:30 mark, so you can hear summers in all his glory talk about the bush administration and all their god awful deregulation.

This is the asshole that was a frontrunner for Glass Steagall yes?

but hey,.....better than bush is the new killing it for America, or is it.....killing America?

McFearless said...

Glass Steagall repeal, that is.

CV said...

Speaking of "POPEYES"...

here's what happens when you PROMISE something for free and can't deliver...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pyW6w5B7Aw

CV said...

Seems like POPEYES only invites trouble...

Armored car guard shot in SE D.C.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/local-breaking-news/dc/armored-car-guard-shot-in-se-d.html

McFearless said...

oh, also, a key issue, those algos that nail people with overdraft fees at the bank....

for real?.....what a tool

"it is not an argument for a return to the policies of near total deregulation...as we have seen in the past"

just completely crazy really, takes a real special kind of guy to sit there like that with straight face making those comments knowing full well what you were a part of in the past

CV said...

@McF

excuse me for a second... watch the video (1:32) and give your best estimation of how many in the video have ever even heard of Larry Summers...

on 2nd thought - don't...

McFearless said...

check out RUT....

CV said...

In reflecting on previous comments... (like the ones on BR's blog)...

I'm thinking they're right...

We need HIGH SPEED INTERNET and RFID chips to be planted in these people...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o7V-yj7KPU&feature=related

I want to know hat they're doing ALL THE TIME... And what they think of Larry Summers policies...

ROR

McFearless said...

what the hell was that video? lol, good thing Little Nicky didn't try to get chicken there, which btw, here's an idea if they are out:

go somewhere and buy your chicken

"we've got to feed our kids"

wow, if she actually did have to find a way to feed her kids I'm guessing that's gonna be a problem, nice big SUV as well.

I'd suggest Chick Fil-A, but that's just me, and they aren't open on sunday's.

McFearless said...

go somewhere else I meant, not sure about everyone else, but where I live, if you are at one fast food place like popeyes, chances are there are 3-4 other places right next to it, all of which have some sort of chicken on the menu.

karen said...

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/16/tims-ascending-right-triangle/

Jennifer said...

Eat more chikin!

CV said...

@McF

The point is (on the subject of the first video - beyond the banal COMIC value)...

Is this...

See what happen... IN THE REAL WORLD... When you advertise something (especially "free", or "giveaway" in nature)... and you fail to deliver on your promise?

or lack the proper preparation, or infrastructure to carry it out to the last person?

People end up pissed...

They're not happy & satisfied that you TRIED... They only WANT THEIRS, and you're basically USELESS to them unless you're giving them something for free, and waiting on their fat lazy asses hand and foot 24/7...

The world is chock full of Peggy Joseph...

CV said...

@Jennifer

I love those "Chick Fil-A" ads with the cows...

Jennifer said...

My husband grew up on a dairy farm. It has been a strong desire of mine to steal one of those giant cows outside of a Chik-fil-a that holds up the "eat more chikin" sign for him for years.

McFearless said...

C,

no doubt

I learned one important lesson in my job a couple months after I started.

if you work for someone, and you tell them you are going to do something, you damn well better do it.

as for this:

"the world is chock full of Peggy Joseph"

dude, just believe in yourself.

McFearless said...

I heart Chick Fil-A, big time, and I especially like the polite people that work there.

and now my mouth is watering

CV said...

Think any of the people in the video are lifting a finger to help out with world hunger?

or any other "cause" that there might be?

Nice SUV tho!

CV said...

@McF

Have you ever tried one of those BK sandwiches that are two pieces of chicken (no bread - chicken AS bread), that have bacon lettuce & tomato?

I haven't tried them but the look kind of good...

McFearless said...

Well, Tim's got the right look like everyone else, that triangle is everwhere is very obvious, but like he said, it's just too early to know anything, and I find it hard to believe we'll know until next week anyway.

tomorrow might be good for golf.

CV said...

And I pose the question once again... (no answer yet)

Who was it, this summer, that was telling me I was out of my mind for wanting to buy silver coins?...

McFearless said...

C,

I can't even remember the last time I went to a BK. if I do eat that stuff I tend to go for MCD every time, I love those smooth buns they have for the cheesburgers.

McFearless said...

thus far this is the third best september for stocks since 1901?

wow

karen said...

I am less than half watching the market between phone calls etc.. what in the heck is going on?!

Jennifer said...

CV -- its the "double down" at KFC -- I haven't had it but my husband said it was dissapointing.

72bat said...

(blogger ate my first chik'n post?)

Yeah, I'm a back door man
I'm a back door man
The men don't know
But the little girls understand

Hey, all you people that tryin' to sleep
I'm out to make it with my midnight dream, yeah
'Cause I'm a back door man
The men don't know
But the little girls understand
All right, yeah

You men eat your dinner
Eat your pork and beans
I eat more chicken
Than any man ever seen


I'm a back door man, what
The men don't know
But the little girls understand

Well, I'm a back door man
I'm a back door man
Whoa, baby, I'm a back door man
The men don't know
But the little girls understand

CV said...

OTHER RARE SEPTEMBER...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17wb0NjICvQ

Nic said...

Karen
So glad your son got operated on in time ;)

CV said...

@Jennifer

Hmmm... Some day, I'll have to end up trying anyway (just to satisfy my curiosity)...

I guess it'll be kind of like TPTB (of today), having been "advised" that Keynesian policies would produce disappointment, feeling the need to try them for themselves anyway...

@72

Maybe POPEYES ought to use that as their theme song...

Nic said...

I spent the morning watching Geithner on Cspan. Wish I hadn't bothered, more boring than this market.
Can you believe the tight range on the SPU? The market must be holding bearish options. The only consolation is it will be more fun when it is over

CV said...

@72

If I had to "pick" out a song with CHICKEN in it... I'd probably go here...

"Chicken in a bread pan pickin out dough"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgvfRSzmMoU&feature=fvst

Jennifer said...

McF -- thanks for the CAT update. I'm still in (risk management issues?) because of 1) the look of the chart 2) neg RSI divergence 3) full stoch crossover 4) 10 day hourly SPX trendline finally broke. I'll give it a little more time to work. I'll be stopped out on a break of 72.48 so I was almost stopped out earlier today.

karen said...

Nic, thank you.. so when you say, "it will be more fun when it is over," do you just mean over as in closed? you know what the $spx P&F target is now ? 1290.

Jennifer said...

Slope of hope has an interesting comparison chart from 2000 that just went up.

karen said...

aapl is gonna make a new high soon.. lets just get it over with.. 274.63 today.. less than 5 pts to go..

karen said...

you all will like this: http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/important-lessons-from-market-internals-now-and-the-prior-two-rallies-into-resistance/

CV said...

@karen (2:46)

refer to my (11:41)...

McFearless said...

JPM is apparently buying giant chunks of IWM over and over again today.

keep an eye, much like the downside, if we break out of that triangle you'll get more bang for your buck long smallies.

CV said...

I think that last sentence in the afraid to trade scenario is best...

---

"Oh – another quick observation – the June rally (which looks most similar to our present rally) ended the day AFTER (Monday) June’s Options Expiration.

Friday gives us September’s Options Expiration."

---

Which probably means BOTH will happen...

IOW - Nothing thru Friday...

Some fear SELLOFF (as in June) and either take a gamble & front run it...

They get carried out On Monday & Tuesday with fairly tight stops... Chart really breaks after... (up)...

But that ends up being the fakeout (so we get something like 1140-1160 after all - the coast seems clear), that's when it sells off...

@Jennifer

CAT - to me since all these markets are trading the same right now... it would seem that CAT is being pulled by those same forces...

CV said...

@McF

At this point I'm not going for much "bang for the buck"...

I'd rather play small ball and try to just stay on the the right side (RED or BLACK)...

CV said...

No reason to get "cute" here...

karen said...

aapl ~ 40 pts in 14 days..

karen said...

the bells are chiming the final hour.. here we go..

Jennifer said...

That aapl move is unreal. The money has no idea where to go. I often find myself writing "aapl juice" on my grocery list.

karen said...

i have a bad bad feeling here.. how could CAT possibly go higher???

how can aapl possibly go higher???

karen said...

retail can't go higher.. financials can't go higher..

McFearless said...

CV,

that's all i've done for months is play small ball, it blows for someone like me that isn't always day trading, so I want juice when I put these small amounts to work. I keep doing 1-2% trades over and over again, I'd like to see some sort of set up where I can say, hey now... I could risk 10% of my account on this.

I think there is little doubt we have a pullback soon, if you are bearish bigger picture I think the greatest concern is that any pullback only goes to maybe 1090 at best and buyers come in, if that happens I'd likely find myself in the camp that says those April highs will be tested at minimum, likely exceeded.

just got to give it time at this point and see what happens.

that sad part is, if it plays that way, I can tell you exactly what EWI is going to do, the move from 3/09-4/10 will be labeled an A wave and then after we eclipse the April highs they'd say "see look, double zig zag" p3 now.

those guys should hire me already.

McFearless said...

aapl seems a function of so many funds and hedgies piling into the same 50 or so stocks, and good luck with that strategy on the way out

I think we refer to that as margin call city.

karen said...

and that most definitely is a head & shoulders on BA..

crude seems to be giving way..

McFearless said...

karen,

if you just believe in yourself, anything is possible!

aim for the stars or further.

karen said...

CME Group, the world’s biggest futures exchange, has said it is “deeply sorry” for mistakenly placing 30,000 fake orders it generated as part of a quality assurance test on its active energy and metals markets on Monday.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/356b6afc-c1be-11df-9d90-00144feab49a.html

how's that for instilling confidence in the market..

CV said...

@Jennifer

"The money has no idea where to go..."

---

Altho we're just talking semantics here, I might say that...

- $4 billion in POMO yesterday
- another few billion today
- add in 30x leverage
- end of quarter window dressing
- 2 & 20 hedge funds gasping for air to avoid redemptions
- "the elections" (ror)
- (sl)opex week
- AAPL 20% of the naz
- 10 stocks = 50% of the naz

I might say "the money" knows EXACTLY where to go... or should I say - bed down for the night...

karen said...

SellPuts

274,000,000 $ moves apple 4 points.. then the quarter billion just sits.. where did that money come from?

karen said...

Participation Remains Paltry

Thu Sep 16 15:00:00 EDT 2010 | Briefing.com
The Dow has managed to hold on to a slight gain, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain stuck in the red with slight losses.

Still, participation remains lacking. Specifically, only an hour remains in the session and only a half billion shares have traded hands on the NYSE this session.

karen said...

the Qs just broke out..

CV said...

"where did that money come from?"

L-E-V-E-R-A-G-E

McFearless said...

dow might be breaking out as well, can we just tag 1130 already

C'mon man!

karen said...

TraderMark is funny.. funny as a crutch!

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/window-for-bears-closing.html

karen said...

Nouriel

FX hot potatoes: China outsources its intervention to Japan by buying JBGs, forcing a pissed Japan to intervene & thus pissing off EU & US

karen said...

CV.. i think this is up your alley: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/62bmjl

On Thursday 16th September 2010, @mrtopstep said:

**Information about Gonorrhea Lectim**
This is a must read for anyone who is still functioning...& let me know what you think!!!

The Center for Disease Control has issued a warning about a new virulent strain of this old disease. The disease is called Gonorrhea Lectim. It's pronounced "Gonna re-elect 'em," and it is a terrible obamanation.

McFearless said...

if this is an E wave, trader mark, like a lot of people, are about to get tazed with that kind of thinking bro.

E waves are like baby stealers making you desire an RFID chip.

CV said...

@karen

I'm taking the McF strategy and voting for all INCUMBENTS...

I want to see them stick around long enough to get tarred & feathered for the misery they've put everyone through...

I already offered Peggy Jospeh a ride to the polling booth...

She declined because as it turns out she has a sweet new SUV...

She informs me that she's lost the payment book on that... So she supposes it means THAT was free too...

CV said...

@McF

Yeah... Frankly, I probably wouldn't go long until a breakout of 1130 occurred...

then was given up and the market got some higher support at 1090, or even down at 1060...

Then rallied back to 1130 and supported again...

Something like that...

I know I'd be giving up a lot of waves on either side there... But hey - sitting around eating popcorn doesn't cost very much...

McFearless said...

it would seem CSCO might be helping to juice the dow here. it's so wierd to see XOM closer to it's 52 week low than it is to the 52 wk high given what so many other stocks are doing.

McFearless said...

C,

if we break above that 1130 I might scrape long depending on how it looks, we'll see what happens, just trying to make some money like everyone else

i still think we are completely effed

I-Man said...

How many folks that eat meat have ever killed a chicken or cow with their own hands and watched it die?

Worth it?

I-Man said...

(Steps down from Ital Rasta Soapbox)

:)

CV said...

@I-Man

Anyone can be a "veggie" all they want if they choose... But consider this...

Just take a look at the mouth of any human... What do you see?

Answer: Sets of cuspids and bi-cuspids

That means humans, genetically, are meat eaters...

After about 2 million more years, when we all have teeth like cows and horses... I'll switch to a veggie diet...

CV said...

@I-Man

http://rsmix.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Tooth-Fairy.jpg

ror

CV said...

The bicuspid teeth are the ones that are generally just behind the really sharp, vampire-looking teeth called the "canines"...

The bicuspids are the best teeth in the body for breaking hard objects like nuts. While the sharp incisors are used to cut food, and the canines are for tearing meats, and the molars are build for grinding and most chewing, the bicuspids are sort of in the middle of the road.

karen said...

did they distribute enuf today, i wonder?

CV said...

"did they distribute enuf today"

Probably not... I think THEY are waiting to see one of DL's buy orders pop up in one of the algo pools...

jk - Trying to draw DL out here...

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