Morning Audibles 8.26.10 - Out this Morning - Be Back Soon

I'm going to be out most of the morning, so I'm just going to have to keep it simple, and just give you a primer on what's going on this morning, and utilize the support of my new assistant to explain to you the debt problem...


Stocks Rebound From Seven-Week Low, U.S. Futures Climb
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-26/asian-stocks-copper-rise-yen-weakens-on-speculation-japan-may-intervene.html


Exceprt:
Stocks rebounded from a seven-week low, U.S. index futures gained and commodities advanced as earnings improved and speculation increased that the Federal Reserve will act to support the U.S. recovery. The yen weakened.


(CV Raises hand in rooms and asks): "Is this the same FED that was saying this a few weeks ago? 'Nevertheless, most official and private forecasters still expect trend or above-trend growth.  Last week’s FOMC statement noted that “…the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization…,” which we interpret as growth of around 3% coupled with a modest decline in the unemployment rate to 9% or a bit below over the next year.  And according to the August 2010 survey by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Inc., the average private-sector forecaster still expects real GDP growth of 2.4% in the third quarter, 2.7% in the fourth quarter, and 3% in 2011 (on a Q4/Q4 basis), as well as a drop in the unemployment rate from 9.5% now to 8.8% at the end of 2010.'... Just asking? - I want to get my facts straight


“QE No. 2 is going to come over the next quarter,” Alain Bokobza, (who is changing his name to "bazooka") the head of multiasset strategy at Societe Generale SA in Paris, said on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move with Francine Lacqua.” “This might be a trigger to allocate out of bonds into more riskier assets including equities or commodities.”


The gain in U.S. futures indicated the S&P 500 will advance for a second day. A report may show claims for jobless benefits declined to 490,000 last week from a nine-month high of half a million the prior week, according to a Bloomberg survey of 48 economists. The Labor Department is due to release the data today at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. U.S. gross domestic product probably expanded at a 1.4 percent pace in the second quarter, down from the 2.4 percent rate calculated last month, a Bloomberg survey indicated before a Commerce Department report due tomorrow.


In other news, the Labor Department and the BEA are scheduled to announce that the "great Pumpkin will bring toys to all boys and girls on October 31st, When that fails to occur, they'll remind you that Santa will arrive on the night of December 25th... and when that doesn't happen, the tooth fairy will make a few unscheduled appearances sometime... To be determined later...


All I really want to know is "How Much Is This Costing Me?"... This is where I'll need the assistance of my lovely new assistant to explain it to you (on account of CV is busy this morning)...





Here's how it got to be that way... (Turns out it's just a WORD thing after all)...




But relax... There's a a guy who can solve all of this... He's just gotta finish his lobster dinner first...







"Down Down Down"

254 comments:

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AmenRa said...

I'm thinking 476k for weekly claims.

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AmenRa said...

It came in at 473k. Can't have a market meltdown before GDP revisions.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Don't worry it'll be revised up...last week was 504k

AmenRa said...

Bruce

If it gets revised up by 20k the market will downplay the fact that the fix was in.

Mannwich said...

Due for a little bounce here anyway. Let's see how long it lasts.

AmenRa said...

Manny

It's meltup until Labor Day time. The BEA keeps GDP revision at 2%, then Momo Mondays, then EOM positioning. Now add three more days of low volume trading with a push higher late on 9/2/10 (that's if NFP doesn't destroy their plans first).

McFearless said...

Still in wave 2, is this the C wave? the super bear count? andy's count?

who knows, the next week will tell the story, but it is fun to watch all the cnbc-ers salivate over the "educated" guess at how many people lost jobs in the last week.

lets see what happens if we can make it to the 1065-1070 area.

karen said...

morning!

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/kotlikoff-u-s-financial-system-fundamentally-corrupt/

watching now..

karen said...

Roubini write up: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38863025

Anonymous said...

I'm so upset- my 10:00 staff meeting has been cancelled-

shoot

Mannwich said...

You LIKE meetings, melons?

Cold Steel said...

Ahab,

Your melons are impressive.
Mind if I squeeze them today?

Anonymous said...

b22/manny-

do you guys do the mock drafts?

McFearless said...

oh it is a joyous morning, all over you can read about how the market is "ignoring bad news" a "bullish" sign. I think pretty much every major news outlet has this as some sort of headline in one article or another.

the wavers response:

This always happens when the news is negative yet the stock market "holds up" and then people say because it's not reacting to the bad news that it is bullish. This idea comes from the observation that during the early months of a bull market stocks go up even though the news is still bad. Social mood leads social action, so what we see is normal. Problem though with this general line of thinking is that there is another time when the market goes up and the news is bad, it's called a bear market rally. We just lived through a great example of this, but I have to push 2009 aside becasue everyone knows the Fed made the rally happen in 2009.....bleh....

How about another example, the market rallied from September 2001 to March 2002 even though during that time we had both the Enron scandal and the anthrax attacks. When those events were OVER, then the market turned down. A trader that bought on the failure of the market to go down on bad news in March 2002 purchased the S&P at 1,147, by December 2002 it was at 879.

If there is a bear market in force, and I still believe that there is, then people will act in accordance with the long term decline in mood according to socionomics, this decline in mood continues despite near term periods of improvement. People refer to this behaivor as "crazy" and it will almost always fool investors that try and make sense of the market in terms of its reaction to the news. So perhaps we go higher from here, maybe we go a lot higher, but we might do well to question the validity of using the news to determine trading trends as an analytical technique. I'm just playing "devils advocate" iow. :-)

McFearless said...

haha @melons,

awesome avatar.

yeah I've done two mock drafts in yahoo so far. Not sure how valuable it is, I've had several people in the one's I did that were on auto-draft and people are all over the map because the scoring in their league might be different than ours.

Still, I like to see in general where players are getting picked, in both drafts i did the top 3 picks were identical.

Anonymous said...

yeah- I think I am going to play around with it- last year I was incredibly disorganized-

it appears auto-pick would take the emotion out of it

Mannwich said...

That was short-lived.

Mannwich said...

@melons: I haven't. Can someone send me cv's link to sign up for the league again? Sorry, can't seem to find it.

karen said...

mrtopstep, SPV 1010P - SPV 1030P vs SPX 990 - SPX 1010 .50 trades out

themosmitsos, @mrtopstep 1010 my butt! 1010 ain't gonna hold this time. <1037ish and we see 950 --- IMO

Mannwich said...

I was in a league last year where I did auto-draft because I couldn't make the draft that night and my team was a disaster. Won't do that again.

karen said...

themosmitsos, I see alot of SPX counts trying 2count 1127↓move 1-2-3-4-5s. Disagree. Series of 1-2s. Or I guess possibly wxy-s corrective(Bull count.)

Leftback said...

Still JOHNNY hour.

POMO today in 10y and 30y. So it's unlikely we see weakness in the long end of Treasuries in the next two days.

McFearless said...

"it appears auto-pick would take the emotion out of it"

sort of, but it also sort of screws up the whole draft. yahoo has that ranking system for players by position and then overall, I think the auto draft just fills your starting line up with the best player in the positions you still have open starting with RB, but that's not really how anyone actually drafts, so an example is I've never seen anyone dying to get the #1 rated kicker before they get three solid RB's, but that's what the autodraft will do.

dude, you are a huge Kurt Warner fan aren't you?

McFearless said...

Manny,

I think CV put the link in RA's update last night.

karen said...

(okay.. no more tweets after this one, promise!)

alaidi, $EURUSD nears 1.2740s, but will be hard to break 1.2760, 1.5570s in cable coming up $$

McFearless said...

general thoughts on the currencies this morning team?

Anonymous said...

b22-

yeah- "greatest show on turf"- that was some great football-

I'm all in on the Redskins this year

karen said...

some of these comments are absolutely fascinating on this WSJ article:

'Hindenburg' Creator Sticks to Guns

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704540904575452013459211330.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business#articleTabs%3Dcomments

McFearless said...

it's sad that the financial news is basically dominated right now by two total waste of times discussion

are we going to double dip

are bonds in a bubble

are we just about tired of hearing every big pundits opinion on these two things?

I am.

read the charts.

McFearless said...

skins? well, you are local, and you've got our old boy donovan.

anyone thinking the 49ers may surprise some people this year?

also, here is something interesting, yahoo has Ryan Matthews ranked very high....is he going to be the real deal?

Anonymous said...

manny-

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/register/tos?league_id=585265&password=taordiebitchez

McFearless said...

ahab/mellons,

also, I'm not sure if CNBC wants to come back, did you ever read the post on his blog about FF? it was a classic post, but I think the season basically drained him, he was that into it.

I'll be more involved this year since we are playing for money, and I also am not expecting laveraneus coles to go in the first round this year.

Mannwich said...

Thanks melons. I'll register now.

McFearless said...

finally see that UUP sub 24 today?...c'mon man!

karen said...

$usd will hold 82.50, $xad should probably won't get above 89 but certainly no farther than 89.43, $xeu topping as I type : )

McFearless said...

I posted this too late yesterday maybe, wondering if anyone read it...thoughts?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Food-price-inflation-lowest-rb-3475577603.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

AmenRa said...

Loonie and Aussie are higher so commodities are catching a bid. AUDJPY, EURJPY are higher (but then again so is the yen). The Aussie and Euro just happen to be up more than the yen. JNK and HYG are higher so the risk trade is on (for now). But since the yen is still higher I think there are some carry trades getting blown out of the water.

McFearless said...

I've got some long uup call limit orders in karen, we'll see if they get triggered, I'm probably trying to be greedy with some of the orders I put in.

karen said...

mrtopstep

[08:54:22 AM]: SPU easily pulled back from retest of OR 1058 area now testin 1st sup globex lo 1053.50 and blow next sup 1050 area
5 minutes ago via TweetDeck


mrtopstep
[08:42:27 AM]: moderate volume thus far leaning to buying weakness

(except for mrtopstep!)

Anonymous said...

I actually posted at CNBC sucks site last night- here was his response-

Hopefully, I will be an observer on CFA’s team, so I can keep track of the shenanigans in the league. Oh wait, I caused ALL of the shenanigans in the league last year.

what of CFA? And 2small2bail- is that mutt?

McFearless said...

2small2bail is not mutt, someone else, we were the only two that did the world cup fantasy this year....

McFearless said...

I'm not sure that Mutt wanted to pay to play....he clearly doesn't work at Moody's.

McFearless said...

From DR today:

YOU CALL THIS CAPITULATION?
Short interest on the Nasdaq down 1.6% in the first week of August?
The Rasmussen investor confidence index at 80.4? Call us when it hits 50, which in the past was a “classic” washout level.
Investors Intelligence did show the bull share declining further this past week, to 33.3% from 36.7%. But the bear share barely budged and is still lower than the bull share at 31.2%. Are we supposed to believe that at the market lows, there will still be more bulls than bears out there? Hardly. At true lows, the bulls are hiding under table screaming “uncle!”.
Yes, Market Vane equity sentiment is down to 46, but in truth, this metric is usually in a 20-30% range when the market correction ends. We are waiting patiently.
As for bonds, well, Market Vane sentiment is 73%. Now what is so bubbly about that. Call us on extreme positive sentiment when this measure of excessive bullishness is closer to 90%, and we’ll be in the correction camp hopefully by the time this happens.
In any event, the extent of the denial over U.S. double-dip risks is unbelievable. These are quotes from economists and strategists in yesterday’s print media — and just a select list at that for there was just so much surreal commentary:
“I’d be shocked if you don't make a lot money in U.S. stocks over the next decade.”
“If yields rise, then 30-year bonds will suffer.”
Page 9 of 12
In terms of nuts and bolts, we are now tracking 1.3% U.S. GDP growth for Q2 and thus far the momentum is so weak that we are tracking -1.9% SAAR for current quarter GDP
August 26, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
Page
“It won’t be a double-dip recession but it might feel like it.”
“There is a global perception that we are not necessarily going into a Japan-type scenario, there is a recognition of a slow recovery.”
“People shouldn’t panic.”
At market lows, the recession rhetoric becomes more intense and indeed it’s

McFearless said...

but regarding those comments, fwiw, we did actually hit a 90%+ bull reading on bonds according to trade-futures....which is a little scary, but I've never seen a 90+ mark an immediate turn, you just know it's coming in the not too distant future.

karen said...

ben, i don't know what to say about the article.. coffee is expensive.. so is my tequila and vodka : )

i bet up holds 24.. 23.82 worst case scenario.. imfo (f=foolish ; )

karen said...

is cnbcsucks still manning his site or is his buddy running it? ha! i remember CV ranting about cnbcs. in a fun way, of course.

McFearless said...

foolish? I don't think so.

23.82 would be nice, we'll see if it can go down there, I'd love to put some more capital to work there.

OT: The moon was something to see last night, hope people had as good a view as I did. It was bright outside all night.

Mannwich said...

Wasn't bergsten really CNBCS?

Anonymous said...

b22 @ 10:14-

you have to believe to achieve-

lol

Anonymous said...

manny-

that was always my impression- but bergsten always denied it

Mannwich said...

I don't believe him.

karen said...

Bove vs Bair, Richard Bove Discusses U.S. Bank Capitalization, FDIC: Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpJevtjeD_g

McFearless said...

"tequila and vodka"

that's b/c you are buying armadale and 1800 Coleccion tequila, lol.

McFearless said...

I'm pretty convinced bergsten was the same person as CNBC sucks, is anyone able to verify?

karen said...

i never thot bergsten and cnbcs were one in the same..

Mannwich said...

@karen: But they knew each other?

karen said...

ben.. i actually buy the kirkland (costco brand) anejo.. and you already know my choice of vodka.. i can only afford it at costco prices.. just like my stellas.. : )

oh, bat wants help on the watermelon/lime/vodka martinis! obviously you need juicier melons !! I don't the mellon at all.. just put mouth size chunks in a container with freshly squeezed limes.. maybe the problem lies in your expectations.. it only makes one martini, laughing.

Anonymous said...

is anyone able to verify?

I don't even know how to go about doing that-

don't have the requisite skills- I don't bow hunt either- or know how to use nunchucks

karen said...

well, Jeff, I don't know.. i have exchanged a few emails with cnbc over the years.. remember when he went to australia for several months? did bergsten disappear then, too?

karen said...

i'm sure cnbc is reading this exchange and having a good laugh : )

Leftback said...

Karen,

Any plans for new icons? You spoiled us all last week...

McFearless said...

well, I think Thor knows, or he hinted at knowing at Barry's yesterday.

Mannwich said...

Good point, karen. I just always though that CNBCS was bergie's alter ego, a character, if you will.

Anonymous said...

thor doesn't know- he thought he knew- but posted that his thoughts were errant on bergie's blog

McFearless said...

oh, I missed that, I thought maybe he had the answer, I guess it's a mystery. Either way, this is an interesting guy to say the least.

Anonymous said...

manny makes a good observation- about bergsten and CNBCS being friends-

bergie relaying CNBCS's messages and whatnot-

that is why I always thought they were the same person- still do really

McFearless said...

hindenberg omen on the front page at yahoo today.

Anonymous said...

b22-

no kidding- it's incredible- dude's been gone all year and we're still talking about him-

he used to really get under BR's skin

Mannwich said...

I miss his posts over at BR's blog. They really spiced things up over there.

McFearless said...

gold isn't really down anything meaningful today but it is funny it's down b/c last night the guy that does the STU for EWI basically gave up on trying to forecast where gold is going, in reality they havent' had a legit count on gold or silver in over a year.

McFearless said...

I think he took what BR said to him too seriously, remember he even posted that at the fantasy board when it happened, I think that sort of cut him deep because he was always just messing with BR and then Barry got serious on him one day.

Anonymous said...

yeah manny-

I never saw him post again after BR told him to go fuck himself-

and lo and behold- bergie demanded an apology from BR for CNBCS?

karen said...

okay, what state does bergsten live in.. i thot tx for some reason..

Lord Blankfiend said...

It's not like LEFTBACK and I are the same person...

McFearless said...

he made the league crazy last year, but a fun crazy, freaking out about the number of trades, other rules and such.....some of those message board freak outs were hilarious.

Anonymous said...

don't forget the lol controversy-

such drama!

McFearless said...

California I think.

karen said...

well cnbcs was from upstate ny, i believe. (or CT)

Anonymous said...

some of those message board freak outs were hilarious.

exactly- dude was high strung- getting worried that CV was going to bump the amount of moves a team could make

karen said...

LB.. you probably want a foto of my new fancy french panties! LOL

Anonymous said...

I want a picture of your new fancy french panties

McFearless said...

I made some calls to a few people in mtgs at BAC that i work with regarding Nic's post the other night, none of them had a clue what I was talking about, which I sort of expected but i figured I'd try anyway.

Anonymous said...

bergie used to live in my hood- Sterling VA area-

believe he now lives in SF bay area?

McFearless said...

From KD today:

"So tell me this - if the people on unemployment (all programs) are higher than the depths of the alleged recession we exited, that is, we're still deteriorating, and the weekly numbers are as well (albeit these numbers are lagged a couple of weeks) tell me why we should be cheering by a half-percent in the markets again?

That's what I thought"

McFearless said...

yes, I'm almost positive bergsten said he lived in CA now.

McFearless said...

I know most of you aren't close but I'd keep an eye on this guy in NJ:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuri7p_9pm4

this was the first link I could find, he was on the news last night spitting some fire and brimstone regarding NJ's Race To the Top education being denied by DC because on one page there was a clerical error, he was throwing these two huge binders on a podium, maybe 500 pages worth of an application and asking what "they" are all thinking down in DC denying them funding due to an error on one page.

I think this is worth keeping an eye on, he seems extremely popular, and I've read he may run for President in the future. His policies aside, as I'm sure some of them are crap, he knows how to appeal to people's current emotions.

Anonymous said...

Mortgage Rates Hit Low of 4.36 Percent

ominous-

reminds me of folks who used to come to my office and say the payment was too high- so I would make a simple calculation- take the principal and divide by 360-

guess what- payment still too high!

lol

karen said...

that was a nice blink of the eye move.. : )

Anonymous said...

b22-

I like that dude

karen said...

ben, this will have your rolling your eyes: zerohedge

POMO over. stocks rolling

McFearless said...

yeah it was....whoosh.

ahab,

I like him too, a lot. I don't feel like he's just all bull shit when he's talking, he's just saying it like it is. Am I getting duped?

McFearless said...

pomo schmomo

Mannwich said...

@ahab: Am beginning to wonder if I should hold out for a lower rate on my re-fi? Am "only" getting 4.8% on mine. Was started weeks ago and closes tomorrow. Was told that this was locked. Is that right? Should I push for a lower rate from these guys and not do it if they won't budge?

McFearless said...

ZH just changed their story on POMO now anyway, before it was that it was illegal to short on any pomo dates, putting out the dates like they were some magical insight, as if players didn't know about this a long long time ago, fed probably tells them the exact time of day they are going to do things too.

McFearless said...

re: mortgage rates

did you all see this from mish a few days back?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/benevolence-by-jpmorgan-jpmorgan-offers.html

I haven't heard of anything like this from any clients, any of you seen this? Ahab?

Mannwich said...

I'm paying $3K in closing costs. Wonder if I'm getting hosed there too?

karen said...

ahab, remember I am literal to a fault.

my mother lives in NJ.. I will ask her opinion.. i know she has spoken of him... from wiki:

The Governor of New Jersey is considered one of the most powerful governorships in the nation[1][2] as it is currently the only state-wide (non-federal) elected executive office in the state. Thus, unlike many other states that have elections for some cabinet-level positions, under the New Jersey State Constitution the governor appoints the entire cabinet, subject to confirmation by the New Jersey Senate. More importantly, under the New Jersey constitution, the governor appoints all superior court judges and county prosecutors, although this is done with strong consideration of the preferences of the individual state senators who represent the district where vacancies arise.

McFearless said...

23.98 on UUP today, pretty much holding where Karen thought it would for now.

karen said...

ben @ 11:18, yes saw, read, and posted that! i just find it so hard to believe..

Mannwich said...

If this is all the bulls have, then I think they're case is in trouble.

McFearless said...

ok, with Karen's new avatar I have a forecast, she'll have 4,000 profile views by end of September.

Mannwich said...

I just looked, ben.

McFearless said...

Karen,

I find it hard to believe as well, I called a person I refer business to for refi's, etc. at WFC to see if they had anything like that and she basically laughed at me.

something seems strange there.

Mannwich said...

She should put some ads there.

CV said...

I'm back...

And for the record... CV <3's CNBCS...

One of the funniest characters that I've ever read on the internet blogosphere...

Pain in the ass sometimes... But hell, coming from me that would be like calling the kettle black...

McFearless said...

yeah so did I, lol

Leftback said...

Thongs are improving again, Karen.

72bat said...

k -
expectations?!? i've got no expectations!
rather profligate use of melons, but hey, what else can one do with them? i'll keep experimenting as long as melons are in season or i run out of 3 olives.

McFearless said...

I need a better avatar, between the panties and the rooster I'm really lagging here.

McFearless said...

Manny,

is that picture from your trip? pretty cool.

did you get close to any lions?

Mannwich said...

What about my giraffe?

Anonymous said...

manny-

refis usually have a three day "right of rescission" anyway- so they don't fund until three days after the settlement date- Minnesota may be different though-

also- there is usually a free float down prior to closing- usually needs to be exercised a week or so prior to closing- did your bank mention a float down?

in any event- get some legitimate competitor quotes- call up the bank you are dealing with and see if they will match the rate- or at least improve theirs- or see if they will cancel the lock and relock you at today's rate-

don't worry if they say it will delay things- it's a refi- so what if it closes a few weeks later

CV said...

@Manny

"Am beginning to wonder if I should hold out for a lower rate on my re-fi?"

Screw the re-fi...

Just pay the damn thing off... I've promised I'm not going to give ANY banks another dime as long as I live...

Even at .0000000000000000000000000001%

Mannwich said...

@ahab: No, they did not mention that. Imagine that! I should have asked you about this.....

Let me see what I can find out.

McFearless said...

something will eventually have to give, spied this article last night:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Lack-of-skilled-workers-rb-1457929627.html?x=0

doing work like this also provides a different type of satisfaction, if that makes sense.

72bat said...

as i recall, bergsten lives in walnut creek, ca

CV said...

@MCF

"I need a better avatar, between the panties and the rooster I'm really lagging here."

Dude... What about the MELONS?

C'mon Man!

CV said...

It's obvious to see that CNBCS 'personna' has not diminished...

Today we have...

- POMI
- GDP revisions
- Continuing claims
- Melons
- Word Girl
- French Panties

And WHAT, pray tell is dominating conversation?

McFearless said...

and the melons, of course!, that picture is hilarious, it's pre-op for her.

I need to come up with something tonight.

Mannwich said...

@cv: I hear you, cv, and agree, but we don't want to tie up all those funds on the home. I just sent our guy (at Wells, holding my nose and dealing with at TBTF devil here, hate that) an email based on ahab's thoughts. Let's see what he comes back with here. Bottom line is we can hold off and go to someone else if he doesn't play ball.

McFearless said...

might be a real snoozer the rest of the day

karen said...

they are prettier on.. but i don't have the nerve.. yet.. laughing. if we revisit 1040.. : )

CV said...

@karen

LB (and others) are all, now, using their psychic powers to "will" the S&P to 1040...

karen said...

mrtopstep

4 those that lost track of the time mcdonalds just turned off breakfeast light and we trust you had a couple of trade ideas from here...

CV said...

Must be BLOW UP (day 2) for some hedge fund unwinding their short silver position...

Mannwich said...

@ben: Yes, that is one of our pics from the trip. No lions down on this game reserve, but we did see several other animals, including zebra, hippos, warthogs, wildebeast, nyala, ostrich and other assorted animals. Couldn't find the elusive rhinos though.

McFearless said...

manny,

sounds gool, one thing to see those animals in a zoo, probably a lot different to see them like that.

Anonymous said...

manny-

many banks have float downs- but not all-

regarding closing costs- any escrows you have with your current bank will come back to you once your current loan is paid off w/ the new loan-

do your 3K closing costs include money going into a new escrow?

not knowing your particular situation I really can't answer why you are paying 3K in closing costs

karen-

I don't know why I was thinking the picture of the french panties would show you in them

Leftback said...

I could go for 1040...

karen said...

George Goncalves Sees `Last Stages' of Bond Market Rally: Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lTJnX66tbw

CV said...

Can someone tell me WHY (or IF) the S&P cash ticker has been stuck on 1055.12 for the last 15 minutes?

Because everything on my screen is moving but that...

wunsacon said...

I would not be surprised if to learn that the pro-union-but-not-pro-labor crowd down in DC denied the NJ funds request just bc the NJ guvner (whom I approve of at least over this one issue) is fighting the state employee unions.

Separately, I hate the very idea of states "competing" for federal grant money for schools. Welcome to USSA. Impress the paper pushers at the Kremlin with your proposals. Da.

karen said...

i can't stand that woman's voice..

Anonymous said...

Welcome to USSA. Impress the paper pushers at the Kremlin with your proposals. Da.

no doubt

Mannwich said...

@ahab: $3K just underwriting fees based on the loan amount, from my understanding. That doesn't include the escrow that we'll have to pay up front for taxes and insurance (about $2,500, I think) but then will recoup later by our current mortgage holder, another TBTF, incidentally.

Thanks for the info though.

CV said...

@wunsacon

I can't wait until they "legalize" marijuana... And hell, why not legalize "crack cocaine", & dog and cock fights...

You know... for BETTER "schools"... lol

Mannwich said...

@ben: Definitely different, ben. Funny but true story - our little 4 year old niece saw our animal pics and told her Mom (my sister-in-law) that my wife and I had seen "zoo animals" in Africa. Too funny.

Mannwich said...

@cv: Then Michael Vick can go back to his favorite hobby. As a dog and animal lover, dog fighting repulses me.

CV said...

Fuck it...

What do we need better SCHOOLS for?

Supposedly, HARVARD and all these IVY LEAGUE institutions spew out the "best" minds in the country and look where that's gotten us!

Anonymous said...

manny-

good luck my man- hopefully your bank is a player-

CV-

isn't that how they legitimized lotteries-

$$$ for the schools

Leftback said...

George Goncalves interview was very good. He made a very good call early this year at a 10y of ~ 4.00%. Now he thinks the tools are piling in.

George, Hugh, Gary and LB - all CORRECT on bonds.
Julian, Drunkenmiller, and San Pellegrino - WRONG.

Mannwich said...

Thanks ahab. In the very least, I should ask, right? I'm sure he'll be annoyed by email but fuck it. It gives me small pleasure to annoy a TBTF and have some leverage for a change with them.

McFearless said...

manny,

thats funny.

@all,
have you all seen the clip floating around of Rick Mishkin getting crushed regarding that paper he wrote about Iceland's economy, for he was paid 120k or something?

he turns into a stuttering fool...it's awesome.

that's who serves on the Fed btw, our potent directors.

Mannwich said...

@cv: It was never about what (and where) they could "get US". But you know that already.

CV said...

@McF

I had a link to that clip on this blog the other day...

CV said...

This is annoying...

all my streaming quotes are working... But my S&P cash has been frozen on 1055.12 for more than a half hour...

I wonder if that means we're going to FLASH CRASH...?

karen said...

5 min spx has sweet baby h&s..

Zero Hedgie on wrong site said...

POMO, BItchez....

CV said...

I'm forced to following it via SPY for now :-/

Anonymous said...

did anyone catch that the Fed is requesting a 90 day stay on the recent appellate court decision (regarding FOIA request on emergency lending)so they have time to appeal to the Supreme Court-

by the time this gets settled I am not sure what year it will be-

anyway gotta roll-

all have a good day

Mannwich said...

Manufacturing activity slowed in August.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-activity.html

Mannwich said...

What will the wizard say today?

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/26/business/economy/26fed.html?_r=1&hp

The Wizard said...

"Bring me the broomstick of the wicked witch of the west"

karen said...

PIMCO - Gross: Delevering, and also re-regulation that requires large down payments, makes it hard for the housing sector to lead economic recovery.

Mannwich said...

There goes the marching band again. Couple that with cooler, dryer days/nights recently, Fall is in the air.

karen said...

Here is the Wall Street game.

4 weeks ago - jobless claims 470K. That's not good.
3 weeks ago - jobless claims 480k. Getting worse.
2 weeks ago - jobless claims 480k. Uh oh.
Last week - jobless claims 500k. Yikes!
This week - jobless claims 473k. Great news!

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/08/reaction-to-weekly-claims-almost.html

72bat said...

k -
"less bad" has become "double-plus good"

Mannwich said...

So true, karen. It's beyond absurd.

karen said...

CV.. did you see this? The Wife Doesn't Know and My Wife Knows Everything ??? I am laughing so hard at this..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVMY-VX7NyA&feature=youtu.be

karen said...

'I don't like British people’ says Japanese politician

karen said...

LOL!

Don’t expect too much tomorrow from Gentle Ben
Written by Jamie Coleman
August 26, 2010 at 16:40 GMT
Don’t expect any bombshell announcements from the Fed chair at tomorrow’s KC Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Journal clearly illustrated this week that the FOMC is unusually divided on the need for further accommodation (or the impact, if any) and while recent data has only worsened, don’t expect Bernanke to do much more than reiterate the options the Fed has at its disposal that he outlined before Congress last month.
The buck could get a lift out of the speech, sort of a relief trade, if you will, by him not tipping his hand on further quantitative ease ahead.
If he arrives in a helicopter though, all bets are off…

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I read two articles on CNBC just now..one about how Bernanke doesn't think there will be a double dip but is going to take steps to prevent one (?) and the other that the S&P tells the USA to take steps to preserve its AAA rating...

..OK...reminds me of two teams and a tug of war over a mudpit..

karen said...

Albert Edwards (from ZH), "
Investors cannot move for the weight of broker research comparing the current conjuncture in the US with Japan a decade ago. While bond markets at least, move to discount deflation, most sell-side analysts still say the current situation is unlike Japan a decade ago. They are right. Things now in the US are much, much worse than Japan a decade ago.

Equity investors are in for a rude shock. The global economy is sliding back into recession and they are still not even aware that these events will trigger another leg down in valuations, the third major bear market since the equity valuation bubble burst."

McFearless said...

my bad CV, re: Mishkin clip.

this statement here:

"Delevering, and also re-regulation that requires large down payments, makes it hard for the housing sector to lead economic recovery."

this is a big WTF? statement. So what are we to do, make it so no down payment is required...yeah, that seemd to go real well last time. Why don't we all just get to pick from the inventory and we get a few free houses each and a free 100k line to spruce it up how we want it. These comments from him lately are a bunch of crap.

McFearless said...

Brian Wesbury firmly in the no double dip camp, fwiw, saw a hilarious phone interview with him on Bloomie late last night.

Also, this is a real make your head spin data point from DR's today:

"The high-end market, in particular, is under tremendous pressure. In fact, it is becoming non-existent. Guess how many homes prices above $750k managed to sell in July. Answer — zero, nada, rien; and for the second month in a row. Only 1,000 units priced above 500,000 moved last month. That’s it!"

karen said...

mrtopstep, [10:45:21 AM] $ES_F may have lost the ystrdy/earlier momentum at this point res comes in 1057 area (OR 1058 area) and sup remains 1050 area

karen said...

BloombergNow

Small-Cap Weakness Flashing Bearish Signal for S&P 500: Technical Analysis

(whatever and rolling my eyes..)

Mannwich said...

Uh oh ben. Wesbury is THE classic contrarian indicator.

Mannwich said...

And a tool.

CV said...

@karen (12:32)

LMAO! :-)

Hey - yesterday I wasn't trying to upset you with the Elin post...

In fact... I was trying to make you feel better...

You know... Knowing that ALL MEN are scumbags... :-)

McFearless said...

Manny, that's what I was thinking, and I was also thinking I find it interesting how the people in the no double dip camp pick and choose who they are saying they are betting against.

Karen,

What's that....small caps look bearish? Oh my, that sounds like an idea presented here, but two weeks ago of course :-)

McFearless said...

the no sales above 750k is wild enough on it's own but only 1,000 units above 500k.

Bad.

karen said...

CV.. no worries about that Elin business.. i was upset about something else and just made a stupid comment. in fact, i had skimmed some of her interview comments earlier in the day.

ben @ 1:04, i know, i know.. : )

Leftback said...

Thanks Mr Ozawa.
REFTBACK RUVS JAPANESE PEOPLE.

Mr Ozawa also likened Americans to prokaryotes....

“Why is the United States so simple? I like Americans, but they are somewhat like single-cell (organisms),” Mr Ozawa told a political seminar in Tokyo, the Nikkei business daily, Kyodo News agency and other media reported.

McFearless said...

I just want to make sure that you all remember my good calls, the bad ones I don't bring up so you forget those ones.

ha

Leftback said...

High end housing market is dead b/c there is no price discovery.

karen said...

I didn't even revisit last night's thread to see how it ended. : )
Also, I'm still sitting around in my french panties if anyone cares.. laughing.

Leftback said...

Karen,

We thought the panties might be off.. can't see them now.

Everyone and their uncle now calling for a DOUBLE DIP. As a contrarian, that suggests to me that it is getting priced in (especially in the bond market), and it makes me go...

HMMM....

Reggie Hammond said...

Mr Ozawa also likened Americans to prokaryotes....

“Why is the United States so simple? I like Americans, but they are somewhat like single-cell (organisms)"...

---

"I don't like rednecks."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBn7Sj9UPxQ&feature=related

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Lunch. I had the screen on as I usually do during the day and around 11ish the DOW went straight down..couldn't find the news until now I see it was the Kansas City Fed and more gloom and doom.

Probably the eukaryocytes trying to incite a riot...

McFearless said...

that's not a true statement, every single recent economist polling shows the majority still do not believe odds favor a double dip.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE67932I20100810

http://www.kiplinger.com/news/article.php/doubledip-recession-unlikely-economists-say-19913597.html

http://thegardenisland.com/business/local/article_680ef6a8-922b-11df-9c12-001cc4c002e0.html

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/business/s_696500.html

I can find hundreds of these in a few minutes.

to say everyone is calling for it is a major stretch, even the people that are saying that the loudest, like DR, put the odds just over 50% at this point.

I don't find it relevant for purposes of trading either way.

CV said...

@bruce

CV is long the endoplasmic reticulum

karen said...

Nouriel's got it at 40%.. http://www.cnbc.com/id/38863025

LB exaggerates sometimes : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I knew your reticulum was endoplasmic, CV.

CV said...

@Bruce

It's part of my "psychoalphadiscobetabioaquadoloop" mystique...

CV said...

At SC...

We want the whole funk, nothing but the funk...

72bat said...

a good chance karen has a beaded reticule in her wardroom

72bat said...

wardroom > wardrobe

karen said...

came back just in time.. is there are reason here?

karen said...

mrtopstep

[12:58:03 PM]: top notch next stop should be 1045.80 area , followed by a key 1039.80 price

Johnny Retail said...

Brian,

This isn't "THE FUN" we talked about.
Can you get me into bonds please.....?

Brian the Broker said...

TAWNY....!

BONDS on line 3....

McFearless said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/%22the-bitter-truth%22-about-america's-future-big-ceos-bash-obama-535369.html?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,INTC,L,XLF,DO,FXI&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

karen said...

CV ! laughing.. mrtopstep

RT @Eubiquitous DOW 10,000 8/26/10..any bids on EBAY for the Ol' Hats?? or are they offered?

McFearless said...

more devils advocate:

there are a lot of comments out there, papers being written, etc. that argue that the market could be in trouble moving forward b/c of baby boomers pulling money out of stocks and putting the money into bonds. I have to admit, this idea sounds very compelling, it also "makes sense".

but how accurate is this?

this idea arises out of the four decade correlation when birth rates are mapped on top of the stock market that people spend and invest more in their 40's so the stock market goes up and down with the number of people in this age range.

what are the problems with this:

First, they slid the birth data around when forming this thesis, which was disclosed but should be considered. Socionomics Inst. has shown that if you are allowed to move data around at will you can find three different multi-decade periods of correlation between immigration data and the stock market and this leads to the second problem that they reveal which is that the available data prior to 1950 diverges so much from this idea of demographics driving stocks that it disproves any causality.

The following studies might help:

1. Bank Credit Analyst (1997, January and 1999, March) Toronto.

2. Holt, Derek, (1997, June 20). Royal Bank of Canada, as quoted on Bloomberg.

3. Poterba, James M. (1998, October). "Population age structure and asset returns: An empirical investigation." Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

I have a lot of other thoughts on this topic, wonder if anyone else has tried to pick the idea apart to see if it will hold up?

karen said...

these guys want to ruin us: PIMCO

Gross: Businesses need an ultimate consumer to sell things to. So as the household balance sheet delevers, it affects almost everything.

McFearless said...

seriously Karen, it's bothering me I have millions tied up in PTTAX, all these recent quotes make me conflicted on that, ....what to do, what to do.

Leftback said...

Ben,

Can't stay there for ever, the question is how and when to exit?

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