Morning Audibles 8.27.10 - Bam! Spliff! Pow! Holy cow BB-man!

Reading AMENRA's corner last night... CV was struck with curiosity by this cryptic comment...


Creditcane™: Bam! Spliff! Pow! Holy cow BB-man!


The first part is easy... We all know what Creditcane™ is (although nobody seems quite sure what it does)... And of course...



&



We know those as being what we do to our pillows and cognos & Harry Wanger voodoo dolls when our trades go the wrong way...


There is, of course, too, the I-Man option for SPLIFF...



But none of that was what was curious to CV... What got me curious was the...






BB-Man

That part was odd to me... Now, assuming AmenRa wasn't talking about a STUTTERING Robin, or this guy right here...


Related to this guy... Who you Chicago Cubs fans know very well...


And who mentored another famous Chicago prodigy...


So what was AMEN RA referring to with the use of "BB Man"? Frankly, I have no idea, but the thought took me on a little journey looking for things that I might be overlooking...

My first stop was BloomBerg... Where I ran across the Nenner video (if any of you have not seen it yet)...


Also... Batman's sidekick "Robin" Griffiths...



B-But the question still b-bothered me... Why were these men so b-bearish?


So I just decided to pull up some long term charts and see if there was anything to see... This is the end of the month, and the S&P cash is VERY close to what would be a "confirmation" of a MONTHLY 3lb  reversal (which reversed in May - b-but hasn't confirmed yet - as it requires a MONTHLY close below to confirm)... That level on the S&P is roughly 1130...


I wanted to see how it looked on a MONTHLY chart with 2,20 BOLLINGER BANDS... And here's how it looked...



I don't want to get into a lot of annotations here... Why? Because it's an odd way of looking at technicals... Some people get VERY PICKY about the TYPE of technicals they gravitate towards to underscore their own belief system... I did, casually, note the following:

- The horizontal blue line is the 1030 level which would be the MONTHLY 3lb reversal confirmation line... What's interesting about this level, is that it corresponds somewhat to the 1998 LTCM crisis, the "capitulation" in the summer of '02 recession, the confirmation base for the '04-'07 rally, and the "capitulation" point of the '08 credit crisis... 

- The red elliptical circles are points when the MONTHLY candles "took out" the midpoint of the BB's... What I see are TWICE (in '00, and in '08), it turned out to be the beginning of a VERY LONG & STEEP decline in equity prices... The exception was in 1998, after LTCM, (which was probably due to the fact that it was more of an "isolated" credit event - at the time)... In ALL cases, the MONTHLY CANDLE (and for that matter, the length of the candles in advance of) the crossover of the midpoint of the BB's were VERY LONG (as is the case right now)...

These are just observations...

I also decided to take a look at this on a weekly basis...



Again, no particular annotations, only to say that on the last major high in the S&P (Oct '07), when the WEEKLY CANDLE closed under the lower shadow of price band level (when the market was at its high), then prices began to collapse soon thereafter...

What is also interesting to note is that in this moment, the MIDPOINT of the MONTHLY BB is 1007, while the LOW SHADOW of the 2,20 BB's is 1009... Of course, both levels are in very close alignment with the 1010 low of 2010...

So I don't know if any of this means anything or not... But it may make a case for considering that despite the S&P having some very short term OVERSOLD technicals, in the past (decade) the most major vicious moves down have actually come at points such as this...











253 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 253   Newer›   Newest»
AmenRa said...

BB=Bernocchio

AmenRa said...

CV

The 1030.71 monthly close was confirmation. A monthly close lower would mean it's trending on the monthly 3LB.

CV said...

T-Trending... uh-OhK...

Auric Goldfinger said...

Even I love bonds....

Doesn't that worry anyone?

AmenRa said...

Jeebus AUDJPY up over 1%, EURJPY up 0.65%, Gold up, USTs down, Euro up. All this may end as soon as Bernocchio begins his speech.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

Watched the Nenner video. Interesting so I wanted to see a little more. What I thought was interesting was 17/17. If he actually held the positions he stated, he's madeafortune!

http://www.charlesnenner.com/

CV said...

@bruce

what also interested me about nenner is that he wasn't just modeling capital markets...

he had models on when we go to war and such...

interesting...

AmenRa said...

GDP BTE. Bah humbug. I still think the USG informed economists and TBTF that they needed to drop their estimates hard to allow for a BTE result.

CV said...

@Amen

I think that's PERFECT...

I'd rather see the market tank on BTE news...

I'm not trusting this apparent strength at the open...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/182a2b70-b130-11df-b899-00144feabdc0.html

Banks back switch to renminbi for trade

“We’re now capable of doing renminbi settlement in many parts of the world,” said Chris Lewis, HSBC’s head of trade for greater China. “All the other major international banks are frantically trying to do the same thing.”

CV said...

xlf slightly green but GS red...

Leftback said...

Selling Treasuries this week was an absolute lay-up trade.....

McFearless said...

So the claim is that GDP, which was off by over 30% from the advance estimate, is BTE because it wasn't down as much as analysts estimates (which are wrong well over 50% of the time)

um....I'm thinking,

GIB


and I'm pretty sure the number still sucked.

CV said...

Double all prices and then let's have a 33% off sale...

karen said...

Me either, CV @ 9:26.. yes, I inferred BB.. but enjoyed the odyssey! morning! barely made it to the table just now.. scary futures, tho..

Leftback said...

It is the Q3 GDP that matters. Benny and the Feds will start goosing it very soon by talking that dirty QE talk. They need to get Bucky down a bit to stabilize the oil price.

karen said...

foreign buyers of bonds can count on a strengthening US dollar to add to their roi..

McFearless said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/s&p-heading-to-950-stick-with-bonds-gold--cash-says-%22very-concerned%22-john-roque-535371.html?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,MCD,VNQ,UUP,TBT,GLD&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=



"if you need the Hindenburg Omen to get concerned, you really haven't been paying attention,"

CV said...

oops a daisy

Mannwich said...

New 52-week low for BAC. Hey Johnny Paulson, how's that trade working out for ya?

McFearless said...

lol

72bat said...

it's 1040, do you know where your french panties are?

McFearless said...

if you were a bull this week they are now probably in the garbage.

karen said...

bat, i haven't even gotten my coffee yet, let alone the panties : )

Leftback said...

Mr Market wants to hear BB talk some QE smack....

CV said...

does the fed just think it can buy spoos for the rest of damnation?

CV said...

I mean... how idiotic & desperate does this look?

Leftback said...

I don't think today is a good trade. It is Friday and there is nothing left to trade on. Will sit tight and see what the close looks like.

Next week we play the jobs number lottery again...!!

karen said...

warning: I had a coffee mishap.. the plunge screens came apart while pressing.. coffee is a little muddy but rich and flavorful just the same.

Anonymous said...

what's the "news" in europe,

check out FTSE, cac....

CV said...

Oh sure...

The most important NFP number in HISTORY!

CV said...

"Bernanke Says Fed Will Do `All It Can' to Ensure U.S. Recovery"


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. central bank “will do all that it can” to ensure a continuation of the economic recovery, and outlined steps it might take if the growth slows.

are these MF's on crack?

McFearless said...

nobody moving any kind of real money is listening to bernanke and placing bets as he speaks....enough said.

karen said...

spy 106 is gonna be tough..

CV said...

@McF

Except for Joe LaVorgna... lol

CV said...

@karen

I think they were just testing the FLASH CRASH system there out for a second...

You know... Getting the vocal chords warmed up...

McFearless said...

CV,

each camp already made up their minds a long time ago, if you are a bull you've been banking on QE2 for months now, and if you aren't a bull you've also been using the same strategies for months, these are the people that WERE long bonds.

regarding beards policy, I'd suggest people read The Economic Case Against Bernanke from this February by Steve Keen.

"Bernanke is popularly portrayed as an expert on the Great Depression - the person whose intimate knowledge of what went wrong in the 1930's saved us from a similar fate in 2009.

In fact, his ignorance of the factors that really caused the Great Depression is a major reason why the Global Financial Crisis occurred in the first place."

Leftback said...

Karen,

French press.
French roast.
French panties....?

sarko said...

karen's policy, kiss.

Mannwich said...

ECRI..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ecri-99-downward-historical-prior-revisions-continue

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV: I am still toying with the idea that long term very low interest rates can be bad.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/inflation-and-interest-dynamics/

Krugman-

August 27, 2010, 8:22 am Inflation And Interest Dynamics

"Brad DeLong and Mark Thoma continue to suffer from dropped-jaw syndrome over the fact that (1) a Federal Reserve bank president believes that low interest rates lead to deflation (2) economists who think they’re being sophisticated are actually defending him.

I don’t really believe that a clearer explanation of what’s wrong with the Kocherlakota view will change anyone’s mind — my experience is that nobody ever admits that they were wrong about anything, and that this is especially true of economists who thought they were being sophisticated when they were actually failing Econ 101. But let’s give it a try, anyway."

...For simple minds like mine, I think lower rates may lead to a decrease in the velocity of money thingy. That in order to get better yield, older people will tie that CD up for longer and longer periods of time. And younger families saving for college and afraid of equities and yada, yada.

Instead of 2 years, people opt out of riskier investments for longer periods...

By the way I love the snobbish "economists who think they're being sophisticated"...

CV said...

This is beyond idiotic... So let me try to figure this out...

Bernocchio gives a speech at Jackson Hole outlining potential policy response which can loosely be translated as...

"If we're going down, we're taking all you MF's with us"...

So risk assets rally off the edge of the cliff?

Yeah sure!

I'm sure the ENTIRE market is just going to say... "Ooooooooooh Beard, we're rally scared of your words", we'd better cooperate and take all the risk ourselves rather than face your big bad helicopter...

SCREW THAT!

I say, take the bitch down to 800 and let's see what you got big boy...

Leftback said...

Today looks useless. Algos v algos.
Plus it's a Friday, post-Wizard. Lloyd is out of here already.

LB is just going to play "front run the POMOs" for a few weeks...
Back at the close to report on bonds. Enjoy....!

McFearless said...

sitting just below a fibo here....

did anyone look at those moves on cac and ftse?

little banking trouble over the weekend perhaps?

Nic said...

McF it has been a tough week for bulls but I think it is the bears turn to get a reaming next. I am feeling a bit short term bullish.
FTSE has held the 50% back from July lows to August highs and S&p looks like a big diamond reversal setting up to me.

Mannwich said...

The wizard should just speak every day. DOW would be at 36K in no time and we'd all be rich. ;-)

Leftback said...

Never a dull moment in SoHo...

http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2010/08/27/2010-08-27_sexy_models_prance_around_soho_wearing_nothing_but_their_undies.html

Helicopter Ben said...

Arb me, BITCHEZ !!

CV said...

@Helicopter

Gladly you arrogant sob...

karen said...

these extreme swings are ominous to me.. also of note, the $compq is not leading. gold is not blowing the roof off. financials still weak.

karen said...

i personally think this will sell-off into the close.. but i'm often wrong : )

CV said...

There's still a matter of filling that gap down from Tuesday...

Until that is accomplished, and the S&P rallies UP off of that, nothing is settled...

Mannwich said...

Ben paves the way for QE2. This was inevitable all along, folks. The most telegraphed thing in QE history.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/analysis-bernanke-paves-way-for-qe2.html

I'm telling you, Ben should just speak every day and the country would be wealthy again.

Jennifer said...

Can't seem to break above yesterday's high...so far at least. Of course, that 1039 print seems to have been a headfake so who knows!

Mannwich said...

More...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/28/business/economy/28fed.html?hp

Mannwich said...

This headline is great:

Bernanke Signals Fed Is Ready to Prop Up EconomyBy SEWELL CHAN
Published: August 27, 2010

But should read, "Bernanke Signals Fed is Ready to give the Appearance of Propping Up the Economy, while really only propping up the Banking elite cartel"

CV said...

"I'm telling you, Ben should just speak every day and the country would be wealthy again."

I'll take the other side of that...

The more ANYTHING ANYBODY in Washington says... The faster we go downhill...

Mannwich said...

I was being facetious, cv.

CV said...

Why are people so stupid to believe that Mr. Market is just going to sit back and say...

"Oh no... I'd better not sell off because BERNANKE said something"...

Mr. Market, instead, will make Mr. Bernanke live up to his promise...

And shove those words straight down his throat...

CV said...

@mcf

Bucky calls... Buyin any?

McFearless said...

@Nic,

yes, I hear you, however, internally the market looks like crap, and we are starting to have new lows eclipse new highs again on the reg. We are/were oversold, but some of the worst sell-offs happen from oversold conditions, I could see a bounce though, but there is stiff resistance btwn 1,100 and the 1,120's.

given all the bets that occured over the last several weeks for Sept VXX, my caution for trading longs is that your entry and exit may need to be timed perfectly, in the very near term I'd think the easier and higher probability set ups will be playing the downside, I found it easier to do the opposite of this up until about two weeks ago when we went from buying dips to selling rips.

Mannwich said...

Tommy John Surgery for Strasburg. Wow, that sucks so early in his career.

spoonman said...

Would love to take a swing at UUP...just a little lower. Come on, come to papa...

McFearless said...

C,

I had a limit go in on Jan 11 $25 calls, none of my others have been met though.

Mannwich said...

Very Mark Prior-esque, although Prior had pitched like 3,000 innings under Dusty Baker before giving out. Too bad. He may never be the same.

Nic said...

McF
Thing is I can't see the market crashing when everyone is so megative, Tony Robbins is giving out alerts to go to cash and everyone is on Hindenburg watch.
It is very usual for the market to reverse the trend at labour day (the trend being the one for the couple of weeks prior, not long term trend) so if we are going to fall in the fall we need to get a rally going and shake out some bears.
Thats my view anyway

CV said...

@Manny

It sucks also for the guy I traded STRASBURG for two weeks ago in fantasy baseball...

I got jason heyward, John Paplebon, & Mat latos for STRASBURG...

Doh!

Mannwich said...

Nice trade, cv.

@Nic: I agree. Too many seem bearish right now. But I could be wrong. This could take a while.

McFearless said...

Nic,

yeah, how many charts have you seen that map us over top 1987? I've seen a lot, so from that view, lots of folks banking on a crash should make us cautious, a move into the 950's seems reasonable Sept-October period.

As for the Robbins video, I dont' much read into it, if I asked all 200+ of my clients I'd promise you none of them saw it, Barry shunned it, etc. Hindenberg just reveals that the market is a mess, which I agree with, it's been blown out of proportion on the web though.

Mannwich said...

And don't forget, the Fed (from Greenie's days, and he's even admitted it) believes the key to everything is ensuring the market rises no matter what. They will do everything in the power to keep it levitated for as long as possible. Of course, it will end badly but their meddling may well prolong the agony for everyone.

CV said...

@Nic

I can't tell what is going to happen (and frankly, I don't think anyone can)...

However... Can't you see that the LOGIC you're portraying there is basically the same type of logic used in determining we're SHORT TERM OVERSOLD here...

To counteract that... You're basically saying that...

"Usually around Labor Day the market reverses trend"

or

"The markets won't sell off until traders are back from the Hamptons/Flushing Meadows/blankety blank"

or

"For a sell off to occur, we need to shake out a few bears first"

The market has been SHAKING OUT BEARS for over a year now...

Nic said...

@bespokeinvest
S&P 500's most oversold: http://soc.li/MUL9RNm $SNDK $ISRG

karen said...

guys.. the dollar is holding the line.. just wait for the aussie dollar to roll over.. nothing else matters.. especially bulls & bears.. johnny is not in this market and couldn't move it if he was, imo.

Nic said...

CV
I am just noting that historically the trend of the couple of weeks going into labour day is usually reversed at labour day for a longer term move, that's all.
This will be the most anticipated market crash in history if it happens now

karen said...

oh, nic.. did you have to bring up ISRG.. another stock i love to hate.. was in that thing 100s of pts ago.. in the last two years it has gone from $84 to $394.. makes a lot of sense.. PE of 34 even now at $270.. (I know, I know fundamentals don't matter : )

karen said...

we do not have to crash.. we just need to retest 1010..

Nic said...


Analyst: Citigroup is cooking the bookss


Umm I think they all are

Leftback said...

TLT down massively. JNK, HYG up. The TIGHTENER, bitchez !!

karen said...

Nic @ 12:05 posted about that the other day but it seems be going viral : )

JCG is down big today on (dbl volume) earnings and guidance cutting.. so much for their last rosy outlook.. institutions definitely in distribution mode.

CV said...

@karen

I'm in line with karens thinking...

I think there's actually chart support that says we could hold either 1010... or, 992/972 (depending on how it plays out)...

I wouldn't call that a "crash"...

Look - a 20% move from April's 1220 would put the market at 976...

Hell - the NIKKEI already did a 20% dip... Where's ours? I'll tell you, it's being held up by all these artificial maneuvers, but it's going to go where it's going to go...

karen said...

bzq and faz could be the best price % performer plays for a short term trade.

Leftback said...

LB might be BUYING some long bonds here, as a hedge......

karen said...

mrtopstep's opinion: longer term count is not as clear but if the 1037 -1029 area holds we can look for a retest of that 1127 high, good risk/reward probabilit

CV said...

@LB

"TLT down massively"...

Great... So Bernanke painted himself into a corner again... $TNX is off 3 quarters of a percent...

Hurry up and RE-FI people... before rates go thru the roof!

Can't have it both ways bennie boy...

karen said...

ps.. mrtopstep wants to see a good close over 1061 as confirmation..

okay, okay.. and the chances of that are ???

Mannwich said...

Somewhere in his Northern MN jail cell, Jeffrey Skilling must be cursing the misfortune of being a tad early. In this environment, he'd be RUNNING a place like Citigroup.

karen said...

spx 1060 is minor.. the fulcrum, 1065, is major..

karen said...

gold falling..

CV said...

so is goldMAN

Mannwich said...

Read the comments at the end of the article. Very interesting....

http://www.propublica.org/article/banks-self-dealing-super-charged-financial-crisis

Leftback said...

The FED probably doesn't want to see this week's massive volatility in bonds. LB believes that they will target a narrow range and try to hold the 10y here, between say 2.50% and 2.75%, 30y between 3.50% and 3.75%. That enables a lot of mortgage refi to occur over the winter.

Option ARM resets in 2011, so they will probably want to pin rates here until we are through that period, in order not to trigger another disaster. Letting rates fall lower than 2.50% on the 10y seems like diminishing returns, and they need to keep the yield curve steep to some degree until there is some degree of recovery in employment.

karen said...

I've heard of The Match King but never read it.. thanks for posting that article Jeff.

Leftback said...

I guess nobody wants to talk macro here....

McFearless said...

karen, 11:59

I agree, nobody is discussing the all the same markets theme lining up again... the dollar is the thing to watch.

CV said...

@Leftback

I don't mind talking macro... I just don't want to talk about the FED having everything under control...

bob said...

LB, sounds like a good plan.

Watching for monday's 3m libor survey.

CV said...

as we have seen...

They've kept it all under so control so well... I'm sure they can keep rates to within fractions of a basis points simply by using a french accent in their statements...

McFearless said...

there seems to be a flat playing out from a wave perspective, and if that's the case we are somewhere in the C wave now...won't last much longer on the upside, this count is encouraged by all the people buying the dip....you know, just the safe stocks.

bob said...

All of the JPY crosses seem to be up against downtrend resistance.

Leftback said...

The FED doesn't control anything much, except the Treasury market.
For now...

CV said...

It's so ridiculous...

Bernanke has been proven to be the biggest idiot in the western hemisphere, and yet markets and traders are sitting around waiting on a hair trigger for him to issue his next statement so they'll know WHAT TO DO...

bob said...

If I felt like holding something through the weekend it would be long JPY. Talk has never before stopped a trend.

EURJPY, USDJPY and AUDJPY all at important technical resistance now, all with asia done for the week.

CV said...

"I agree, nobody is discussing the all the same markets theme lining up again... the dollar is the thing to watch."

Well - I'll tell you what the dollar is saying (maybe not today - but it's certainly not saying the OPPOSITE)...

The dollar is NOT selling off after Bernanke basically issued a statement today that he'll beat it to a pulp if necessary in order to put a floor on asset prices...

The dollar is saying...

"Go ahead... Make my Day"...

Bernanke said...

Second biggest idiot.

CV said...

Oh I forgot... You were an "idiot in training" for many years...

karen said...

OT: http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/AuiUPi/www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2010/08/27/2010-08-27_nicole_john_daughter_of_us_ambassador_to_thailand_plunges_to_death_from_highrise.html

McFearless said...

Well, I suppose the Fed's control of the Treasury market is a very recent event then yes?

I've already shown the chart a million times for how they determine rates, they simply follow bonds, lets just review the control they exhibited over treasuries...last year:

The Theory says the all powerful and magical beard can, with the flip of its monetary-policy switch, manipulate the course of any financial market in the direction of most benefit.

Oh really, is that how it goes?

In early 2009 they tried this with the treasury market. The plan was to "provide liquidity" to help "calm" the issues of defaults and delinquencies by keeping bond yields at record lows to stimulate more borrowing.

And how did they do it: first, they went to 0% rates. Second, March 16, buying $300 billion of long-term Treasury debt and this was on top of the $1 Trillion in mortgage-backed securities.

Experts "knew" the strategy must work, it was "foolproof" long bonds would stay with extremely low yields, they HAD to.

Some headlines:
February 11 Time Magazine cover story included an illustration of Uncle Sam holding a Treasury note with the caption: "I WANT YOU TO BUY THIS BOND," and wrote:
"There are fundamental reasons why Treasury prices will move higher (and yields lower), and why the current opportunity to go long US Treasuries should be grasped with both hands."


March 14 Bloomberg:
"The underlying and most compelling trend now is that bond yields will stay low. The Fed made it clear it doesn't want to see yields rising... "

March 19 Reuters:
"We always knew that if the Fed did use this clearly powerful bullet, it would cause a huge drop in yields. It's wonderful for Treasuries. Investors can have absolute confidence" in them.

there are plenty more but that's enough.

At 2009's end, long-term U.S. Treasury bonds delivered their worst year on record: the 30-year T-bond plunged 26%, while the 10-year T-note fell 9.7%.

So, I remain unimpressed by the Fed and their ability to get what they want....but I realize I'm a small minority here.

McFearless said...

sorry about the double post...blogger.

CV said...

See?... I can make things magically appear and disappear (even without the magic beard)...

McFearless said...

it would seem we'll make a run at 1067 again before the day is out.

Ritholtz said...

CV,


HEY!

Stop deleting comments

CV said...

Rosie's Observations

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosies-observations-gdp-number-bernankes-address-and-market

karen said...

this fellow echos my sentiments very well: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/elites-have-lost-right-rule

Nic said...

LB
If 2.50% was the squids target I guess that will be the bottom of the range.

karen said...

LOL!! BreakingNews

British Airways apologizes for mistakenly telling passengers on a London-Hong Kong flight to prepare for crash landing http://bit.ly/bJDA9Y

Mannwich said...

Reading now, karen. Fantastic so far.

CV said...

@mcf

I loved that "OTOH" schtick...

Basically... (from the Beard)

"What we need to see happen is XYZ"... But it's not really happening... But we HOPE it will on its own... Until then, we'll keep on pushing buttons, pulling levers, and spinning wheels to look busy"

McFearless said...

Karen,

Nice ZH link, couple thoughts

1. Lots of people still brag about being a "quant".....

2. Wall St. isn't dead.....yet.

The whole paper was born out of this idea:

"The only way in my opinion to survive this is to buy all dips in precious metals, agriculture and oil. It is in these three areas that I expect to see the most price inflation as money eventually figures out the end game."

So good luck with that, because the situation he describes leads to deflation... THAT is the end game in his world where the Fed ultimately vanishes. And if he thinks there is going to be a black market, I don't get his call at all, buy the dips in oil, does he mean actual oil, and store it where? Owning oil in dollars during black markets means nothing....nobody will barter with you for your DBA either....

McFearless said...

CV,

All that I'm saying regarding that post is that I agree with DR, I get no sense of comfort that these guys have things under control based on the words coming out of his mouth.

Confused, scared, lost, uncertain, hopeful,

these would be the words I would use to describe them....

CV said...

Let me guess...

By the end of the day we're going to find out that yet another Hindenburg Omen has triggered...

karen said...

mrtopstep

#futures# SPU opens 8 handles higher, sells off 16 handles and then rallies 22 whats a mother to do?????????

CV said...

"THAT is the end game in his world where the Fed ultimately vanishes"

Kind of ironic that the FED's 100 year charter expires near the Dec 21st 2012 date huh?

Damn those MAYANS were smart!

Mannwich said...

@ben: Although I do agree with you on this....

"So good luck with that, because the situation he describes leads to deflation... THAT is the end game in his world where the Fed ultimately vanishes. And if he thinks there is going to be a black market, I don't get his call at all, buy the dips in oil, does he mean actual oil, and store it where? Owning oil in dollars during black markets means nothing....nobody will barter with you for your DBA either...."

McFearless said...

oh well, we can talky talk all day long about what Bernanke can and cant' do, time will sort it out for all of us though.

McFearless said...

that's the thing about the hyperinflation calls Manny, they lead to the same outcome as deflation.

our best case scenario in my view is we turn into Japan, crazy or maybe sad that this is what I hope for

McFearless said...

and one of my problems with the Japan scenario, among many, is that even the CIO at my shop is calling for that, and I find him to be a dipshit.

but hey, I'm not CIO!

McFearless said...

a close right by the 1067 would probably confuse the most people going into the weekend.

on my screen this is shaping up to look like distribution again.

What do you think karen? You seem to have a good eye for that.

Nic said...

McF
here is my view of the SPX

CV said...

@McF

here's what I think...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbrjRKB586s

karen said...

Ben, my 12:12 mentioned the JCG distribution today.. : )
Also, agree with your 1:51. but think the gold/oil/ag thing will run in waves.. and i wouldn't play the little dips.. but that fellow's mention of oil got me thinking about Jenner's XOM pick.. for a future buy..

Did you see the change in TIF's outlook? "The company said it looks toward the second half with "a sense of guarded optimism." Domestic spending has been weak..

Oh, and JCG's outlook change was a real gem: "The continued economic uncertainty that we are all seeing is leading us to take a more conservative outlook for the back half of the year," J. Crew Chief Executive Mickey Drexler said on a conference call late Thursday.

McFearless said...

Nic,

thanks, looks like the equal moves you were talking about maybe a few days ago, and so we bounced right off your line, if you watch the volume patterns during today's action it looks like a lot of the days we got the big buy climaxes according to Investors Intel, low volume overall.

Karen,

yes, was thinking about his call on XOM also after watching that video.

on TIF, I think they get roughly 60% of revs from overseas which may account for the optimism despite the domestic spending weakness. I guess Americans don't want those pretty boxes bad enough right now.

CV,

I can always get the Led out on a Friday.

CV said...

@McF

I'm taking it in sequence...

That was from Led Zeppelin IV (in the anticipation that we'll be getting a 4th Hindenburg Omen confirmation)...

karen said...

okay, Nic, laughing.. my view of spx is to put a straight edge on Aug 10 and Aug 18.. that would mean no higher than 1065 today and lower highs next week.. your picture doesn't give me 1010 till it breaks down.. : (

Leftback said...

A close study of Nic's triangles takes us back up to Karen's top...

I suppose I could get a yellow card for that...

karen said...

good pick CV! got a limit in for some faz.. and i haven't even been following the rabid bears on twitter.. it's dangerous there.. the group think is contagious : )

McFearless said...

how many times does the HO need to confirm itself before something happens, I dont' know much about it.

CV said...

@karen

That's the straight edge I'm working with...

Aug 10th was the dumbass FOMC meeting...

Great time to precipitate a market decline...

karen said...

an important watch, imo...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuSL_aqB36w

"long time before people are willing to open their wallets again."

CV said...

@McF (2:33)

Mostly 3x... (which we've already gotten)...

But there are variations on the theme...

Also, the decline doesn't necessarily come right away (according to my knowledge)... I guess you'd better check with McHugh...

CV said...

sorry... anything that starts with 12 seconds of advertising is a NO WATCH for me...

karen said...

that woman is so ****ing smart.. gilt is amazing.. tho I have never shopped from my iphone.. i do shop gilt.. from toothpaste to dolce : )

(oops got filled on some FAZ.. 16.33.)

McFearless said...

Socionomics:

http://health.yahoo.net/news/s/ap/us_med_birth_decline

karen said...

OT Netlix email: Blade Runner: Theatrical and Director's Cut
Arriving on or around: Saturday, Aug 28, 2010

Mannwich said...

This is clever:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/periodic-table-of-wall-street-criminal-elements/#comments

McFearless said...

Succinct summation of week’s events

Positives

1)Initial Jobless Claims 17k less than expected at 473k and down from 504k last week


lol, and we've confirmed inflation based on comic book sales data.

lmao.

CV said...

don't forget the BACONATER...

karen said...

guys.. a ramp from 2-3 often turns into a sell-off from 3-4.. who is left to buy the last hour?? besides bots and short covering, i guess..

karen said...

BreakingNews

Prosecutor investigating massacre of 72 migrants in Mexico is missing, Mexican president says http://bit.ly/d9jK0p

the wild, wild west...

Nic said...

The hard thing about that pattern I drew is if it breaks to the upside then we aren't going to 1150 we are going to 1240 next and a new high.

McFearless said...

indeed nic, that pattern will not stop at Karen's top, it'll blast right through it.

CV said...

I'll go way out on a limb here and say we're not going to 1240 and a new high...

karen said...

check $indu candles on 60 min.. could get fun..

Nic said...

But a break to the downside target is 922

CV said...

But I'll capitulate at karens top if MR MARKET wants to turn me into a fool...

McFearless said...

yeay, i highly doubt we get there either but we'll have to go with the flow if we do.

CV said...

Ask yourself something...

What do you suppose the $TNX yield will be with SPX pricing 1240?

Re-fi's?

Gold? Think the FED wants people buying gold with their dollars that he's printing?

And speaking of that? How can he justify a QE2 with SPX roaring up tin the 12's?

Stimulus packages from Washington with Wall Streeters getting rich, and unemployment at 10%...

Good luck with that!

karen said...

Nic.. no disagreement from me on that but 1010 could launch a fall mini rally on the dbl bottom meme..

McFearless said...

too many chart patterns at work team, I'll stay small short into September but it seems like the best trade here is no trade at all.

dollar seems the best place for long side buying opps right now imo.

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks for that chart Nic. It confirmed what I suspected. The EW counts that had i ending at 1071 were not complete. Minute i of minor three would appear to be 1129-1039. We have a nice a and b complete and working on c, the only question is: is it c of abc or (c) of A of ABC. A nice run into the 1080's appears likely.

I'm away on vacation so not too sure this all works but it would appear possible to me. Ben, does this seem possible to you?

McFearless said...

Mickelson is killing me today

McFearless said...

McHappy,

see my 1:02, we seem to be looking at the same thing.

Nic said...

Agree Karen, that pattern is not complete but it is a possibility. The same top on GBPUSD last summer produced a massive drop and THE top in the S&P in April was the same diamond pattern,

I posted it here, a 240min chart

Just thinking ahead with possibilities

karen said...

all i know is that deleveraging/debt-service/credit writedowns must be allowed to happen.. and we will see it in a stronger dollar and contained gold & oil.. otherwise, it is gold to the moon and 150 crude oil again..

continued QE = continued self-destruction

mcHAPPY said...

Of course, anything is possible!

If minor 3 is to be a minimum of 1.618 of minor 1, we are looking at 290 pts on the SPX. Assuming 1129 was the start that means end of minor 3 is 840. Minute 1 at 60 makes this a tough task. Minute 1 at 90 makes it much more possible.

karen said...

AnneMarieTrades, Don't forget sky people...at 12:30am tonight (tomorrow) Mars is closest to the moon ever...it will look like we have two moons in the sky

McFearless said...

Nic,

Have you been keeping an eye on the Bearish 5-0 voilation Pdf that you sent me?

Still in play, and in fact the charts are starting to look pretty similar.

that was an upside target to near 1,500


zing!

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

Comes down to which c we are working on indeed.

karen said...

Two Moons On August 27, 2010, One Being Mars, A HOAX

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/27/two-moons-on-august-27-20_n_697155.html

McFearless said...

so far with the fibo work I did that August top I called for with +/- 2 days on 7/28 has held exactly within the dates cited for the month.

based on the work I'm doing next turn would be +/- 2 on 9/12.

I'm just using the strategies in the fibo book I linked a few times, we'll see how this one goes.

karen said...

Fed stands by to boost US growth
By Robin Harding in Jackson Hole and Michael Mackenzie and Alan Rappeport in New York
Published: August 27 2010 15:18 | Last updated: August 27 2010 19:53
Ben Bernanke said on Friday that the Federal Reserve stood ready to boost the flagging US economy and had the tools to do so, including restarting the purchases of long-term assets such as Treasury bonds and other securities.

this is so silly: if they could actually boost growth they would have fixed everything by now!

McFearless said...

McHappy,

yeah, that's fur sure man. and I don't know the answer, so small short and sit tight and wait. No sense in taking a position when confidence is low (or mine is)

CV said...

@karen

That HOAX comes out just about every year...

Just like the DOUBLE BOTTOM hoax...

They all turn into triple bottoms (and we know how all those work out)...

Nic said...

Yeah McF I am watching it. You know you get bogged down in the numbers, and living here in Canada where we have had outright deflation for 3-4 months (but no one is talking about it) it is hard to get there in your head.
Technically I see it no problem, it is my head that says WTF

CV said...

I'm frankly more bearish today than I was yesterday...

A little more "annoyed" too...

CV said...

"Ben Bernanke said on Friday that the Federal Reserve stood ready to boost the flagging US economy and had the tools to do so, including restarting the purchases of long-term assets such as Treasury bonds and other securities."

Is that like a BAZOOKA or something?

CV said...

@McF

"there seems to be a flat playing out from a wave perspective, and if that's the case we are somewhere in the C wave now...won't last much longer on the upside, this count is encouraged by all the people buying the dip....you know, just the safe stocks."

And that's what produces HINDENBURG OMENS...

McFearless said...

Nic,

the only advice I could give you is:

Watch out for the moose.

:-)

karen said...

this tape is NOT for the faint of heart.. so what am I doing here??
time for my watermelon martin, if I dare leave the chair..

McFearless said...

Nic,

the simple fact that virtually nobody, still today, actually believes we can get deflation (an absoulte denial thought process for any student of market history) is what scares me the most and also makes me think it's our outcome.

McFearless said...

that's what I'm talking about, frou frou time.

today was sort of fun to watch, at least I had one dollar limit order get triggered, I've made a few pennies so far. so I have THAT going for me.

Bullwinkle said...

Ouch...

McFearless said...

Nic,

your pattern up there is key to that harmonic you shared with me because anything below 940 negates it.

The one thing I don't like about that harmonic is there are only 4 examples. It's still worth watching though.

CV said...

"the simple fact that virtually nobody, still today, actually believes we can get deflation (an absoulte denial thought process for any student of market history) is what scares me the most and also makes me think it's our outcome."

---

the simple fact that virtually nobody, still today, actually believes we can get below the 1040 barrier because of the PPT (an absoulte denial thought process for any student of market history) is what scares me the most and also makes me think it's our outcome.

Nic said...

I will watch out McF. Whichever way we go we are going to do it one swing and one day at a time :)
I am just happy to be feeling healthy

karen said...

i hate 30 pt $indu moves in 10 minutes.. i really do.

McFearless said...

no doubt Nic, I didn't realize how serious that illness was until you started posting here.

McFearless said...

here comes the 1067.... market never makes it easy.

C'mon Man!

karen said...

i'll call this 1065 if you will.. : )

McFearless said...

no 7 is the key number!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIYYZPnacWo


Seven!

AmenRa said...

SPX got as close as it could to the minor fibo 1064.64 (the .1272). A close above opens up a possible push to 1084.77 (the .1107).

McFearless said...

Ra,

good eye, this is why the 1067 will confuse everyone heading into the weekend.

shet

AmenRa said...

Ben

1067.52 is the 23.6% retrace of the monthly 3LB range.

Nic said...

7 or not if we close near the highs we have a key outside day reversal and a double bottom in the SPX.

72bat said...

moon & jupiter tonight
sky & telscope
will hone watermelon-lime martini mixology skills further this evening awaiting moonrise.
just a neophyte. bat is.

McFearless said...

yes, and we all know the 23.6 rule via Andy, and how money is that rule!?

that number is the true bitch if that's where we close.

McFearless said...

as for 7, really I just wanted to link that video, funny scene.

karen said...

zerohedge

New post: Goldman's Technical Update: Bearish, With An "Ultimate H&S Target Of 900" http://tinyurl.com/35kyej8

McFearless said...

oh, we knew it was only a matter of time before this H&S started getting some play.

nobody is watching that giant one though, it's a decade long H&S.

In Scotland they have three sizes

1. Wee
2. Not so wee
3. Fricken Huge

That big H&S is a size 3.

CV said...

You all can have all the 23/6 rules you want...

All I see is this...

NEW CHART IN THREAD

AmenRa said...

Hmmm. TRIN is indicating a push higher into the close. Damn.

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