Morning Audibles 8.25.10 - Technical Difficulties

In a flash of brilliance late last night, I decided to go thru and remove a bunch of programs that had been bogging my computer down... Alas, I wake up this morning, and am having all kinds of difficulties here and there which I have to resolve before the rest of THE FUN gets started... 

You know... THE FUN... Here's what it looks like... Remember that 1051.87 was yesterdays close on the S&P... I can't tell you how many times the "low", or point of recognition has occurred in the first 5 minutes this summer by the thug algos... Most of the time it happens right on FIBO extensions... So when I see 1042.75 on the heat map, and realize that the .009 FIBO from yesterdays close is 1042.40... Then those are things that make you go HMMMMMM...


1040-1040 have also been important technical levels for all of 2010... I know I don't have to tell any of you hardcore traders that, but the more casual readers should know... So the market is REALLY deciding something important here... Whether to "give it up" now, or DELAY "giving it up" until possibly after Labor Day... The dollar seems rather quiet (all things considered), but gold seems to be getting more expensive again (in Euros)...

Hold onto your hats... While it may or may not turn into a wild day (day after 3rd Hindenburg Omen confirmation)... It sure looks like it's going to begin that way... The NIKKEI was trying hard "not to lose" the psychological 9,000 level... Result? Epic Fail... 

In Tokyo they were singing... NIKKEI Don't Lose That Number

So... Huckleberry's... Pick up the phone, pick some stocks, and have yourself some FUN...



251 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 251   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

@Nic

from other thread...

"Another rumor of macro fund blow up this morning. Full liquidation mode and many crosscurrents in commodityland"

---

That's the first thing I thought of when I saw the GOLD/EURO cross...

CV said...

@ahab

Gross said he told Geithner and other Treasury officials that they would never get housing starts of 1 or even 2 million a year under the wing of the private market.

and we need that many housing starts why?


---

Why that's easy to respond to... All Americans need cars & houses so that Obama has gas & a mortgage he can pay for them...

Anonymous said...

Why that's easy to respond to... All Americans need cars & houses so that Obama has gas & a mortgage he can pay for them...

of course! what's wrong w/ me

Jennifer said...

Looks like everyone had a fun night. Something I read here a while back made me think that some of you read Gary Savage's updates. (Author of smart money tracker and has a subscription service.) Here's where I have to make my confession: Hello, my name is Jennifer, and I'm addicted to stock market forcasting subscription services. So...Gary is obviously very bullish on gold, but what I'm curious about is if any of you have an opinion on his view of the 4 year cycle in the dollar. I like to read his stuff mostly as a foil to my uberbearishness. References to 12 step programs will be ignored -- I have not come anywhere close to hitting bottom yet.

CV said...

@ahab

That's THE FUN of being President...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ahab:

I agree 100% with your question. All the folks here know the housing ownership curve prior to 2000. With 20% down and the government out of the way, housing numbers will eventually find their proper equilibrium...but I doubt even Meridith Whitney could realistically tell you when that will be..especially with an interventionist government...and I don't just mean Obama here..

I read with interest early this morning letters from small business owners to Mish. The phrase "Going Galt" really caught my eye by one small business owner. I am beginning to consider this myself..

Anonymous said...

Fed policy makers will probably need to resort to “additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures” to shore up the economy, Hatzius said in an interview with Tom Keene yesterday on Bloomberg Radio.

call me stupid- but I don't get it- how does moving paper around do anything?

the old saying- "you can you lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink"

Anonymous said...

BinT-

no doubt- I like that- "going Galt"

Atlas Shrugged? Been awhile since I read that book

CV said...

@Jennifer

"but what I'm curious about is if any of you have an opinion on his view of the 4 year cycle in the dollar."

I can't speak for the others... & I also find it easier to give my own opinion on something rather than try and dissect someone else's treatise on a subject...

(except when it comes to annotating moronic Bloomberg articles)...:-)

Anyway - loosely stated... CV's near to mid term bullishness on the dollar is simply based on deflationary forces in effect and debt repayment... and the role the dollar will play during that phenomenon...

Anonymous said...

I just keep finding one stupid thing after another-

In a bid to prop up the market, the Obama administration plans to offer $1 billion in zero-interest loans to help homeowners who’ve lost income avoid foreclosure as part of $3 billion in additional aid targeting economically distressed areas.

nothing like lending money to people w/ no jobs and no income-

another stellar idea from this administration- although- to put it in perspective- McCain would have probably done all the same stupid shit- outside of health care

Jennifer said...

CV -- yeah, that's where I am too. I'm thinking of kicking this service to the curb, even though it provides some bullish counterbalance. I'm at the breaking point anyway -- hardly enough time to read what I'm paying for. The whole deflation argument is funny, once you get it, there's just no going back. I find it frustrating that so many smart people I know just can't (don't, won't?) get it. My father has been investing since he was a teen very successfully and he just can't accept the enormity of the debt overhang. We used to be a good trading team but I find that I can't talk stocks with him much anymore.

karen said...

good morning, all! thanks for the Steely Dan, CV. i predict going got will go viral much the way got milK? did : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ahab,

I come down pretty hard on Obama, because I don't think there is much there "there"..

But if congress by amendment had to balance the budget every year, we'd be much better off no matter who was in power.

(And we'd have lots more living ex-soldiers...)

karen said...

here's a market rumour for you: Dubai will sell valuable assets to reduce its debt.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67O22Z20100825

CV said...

@Jennifer

Like the Steely Dan Album

"Pretzel Logic"

Anonymous said...

Bruce-

being President is a tough job- that's why eight months into the year you need to have a minimum of six vacations-

he should probably step it up to one vacation a month lest he become fatigued and not have his razor sharp intellect to guide us

CV said...

I'm going to point out that YELNICK chart from yesterday and say that what I might be looking for here is one of those 60 minute candles with a tail...

Mannwich said...

Obama had a choice early in his presidency - take the politically more palatable route - the "easier" choice, if you will, or go the hard way and try to truly fix things (not just kick the can). He chose poorly and will pay dearly for that. We all will.

McFearless said...

"Whether to "give it up" now, or DELAY "giving it up" until possibly after Labor Day..."

This sounds like an after school special.

Anonymous said...

manny-

see my 9:24- I am not too sure it would have made any difference who was in the WH

Mannwich said...

Probably not, ahab. The political culuture in D.C. perpetuates this crap. The only thing that will stop it is something major outside of that cesspool.

karen said...

The Housing Mirage (lots of comments! haven't gotten into them yet.. i expect a lot went galt : )

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575449751158395676.html?mod=WSJ_hps_SECONDTopStories

karen said...

ha! a good one from DR: Quote of the day: “… Here’s how you will know if there is a bond bubble — ask your colleagues how many of them own bonds in their accounts. When nobody/almost nobody raises their hand you should be comforted in knowing that the prospects of the existence of a “bond bubble” have been reduced.”

Mannwich said...

And instead of radically changing course (and thus admitting the first one hasn't worked), he just keeps digging and the hole just gets bigger and bigger. Sounds very familiar.

Mannwich said...

Interesting quote, karen. Makes me feel better about being mostly in bonds and cash. For now.

Anonymous said...

manny-

DC has issues- but I found a great little pizza place on Capitol Hill-

so as CV would say- they have that going for them

CV said...

@karen

Sometimes logic just comes and kicks you in the head doesn't it...?

Mannwich said...

Meanwhile, TLT just slowly climbs every single day lately. Fun to watch.

Mannwich said...

lol, ahab. See, we aren't always Debbie Downers over here on this blog.

CV said...

@Manny

"he just keeps digging and the hole just gets bigger and bigger."

That's what he meant by SHOVEL READY JOBS

Bruce in Tennessee said...

The 4% drop in durable goods will just cement thinking about what has already transpired the last two weeks.

..Damn that Rosenberg!

Mannwich said...

Well, there you go, cv. I must have initially misinterpreted that comment. My bad.

Anonymous said...

CV-

I like that avatar- I am going switch mine up one of these days-

I have been thinking about changing my username to Happy Sunshine- with a name like that I think I would see the world in a whole new light-

lol

Mannwich said...

You'd probably get a job offer from CNBC as well, ahab. Good career move.

CV said...

@ahab

"Happy Sunshine"

You'd be the star of every blog NOT named 'Survivor capital"

Mannwich said...

Morgan Stanley's at it again. Flailing. Might be right eventually but probably way early, which = wrong.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morgan-stanley-says-governments-will-default-only-question-how

McFearless said...

"but what I'm curious about is if any of you have an opinion on his view of the 4 year cycle in the dollar."


Loaded question here, I don't know who Gary is but we should recognize there are in fact several different methodologies one could use to determine a cycle. I would be interested in reading what he has come up with, or dissecting it rather. A 4 year cycle on the dollar makes me want to say a lot of things but I'll reserve my opinion on his until I can read it.

Some words on cycles from RP:

"There are two things that cuase cycles to be difficult. One of them is that occasionally there is a shift in one subharmonic. If you have, for instance, a 24-week cycle and it subdivides into three eight-week cycles, occasionally you find that there is a fourth 8 week cycle that you can't explain, pushing the more sever bottom out eight weeks.
The other thing, which is rarer, is a complete shift in cyclic length. One big key to good cycle work is to stay on the alert for a shift in dominance of the different length cycles."

I think the second point might apply to the dollar here, but again, would have to read his work.

From an Elliott Wave perspective I've got very bullish implication charts either using Andy's count or EWI's count. I've not found one instance in 2.5 years of a losing trade when the two of them together draw similar conclusions with an asset class.

Mannwich said...

@cv: And ZH. I think he'd get eaten alive over there.

karen said...

you all see tbt sub 30..

Mannwich said...

TLT a +109 handle. Wow.

karen said...

Crescenzi discussing deleveraging Japan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9oz3nk6w2U

Anonymous said...

did anyone catch Mark Cuban's very long post in response to BR yesterday-

I thought he had a lot of good things to say-

believe it or not

Jennifer said...

What is the deal with the VIX? I would have thought it would be higher at these levels.

CV said...

@Mannwich

At ZH... he could always retort with the

"Sunshine Bitchez!" defense (and get away with it)

McFearless said...

DR's old buddy at Merrill made, what I thought was a good point this morning on CNBC, not word for word but as I recall it:

"people are calling bonds a bubble because they don't understand it so today the reaction is to call it a bubble. I don't see the dynamics of a bubble being there, for one, you don't see people in mass quitting their jobs to day trade treasuries"

A simple, but effective point imo.

Anonymous said...

manny-

Happy Sunshine not a winner@ ZH?

hey- once they bask in the glow of my optimism- the whole dynamic of the blog will change-

no?

lol

CV said...

@karen

tbt... I bow to your call on that (I do)...

But I made money on the trade anyway - so we're both happy...

My profits on that bought me that 6 pack of STELLA (which was very good by the way)...

Mannwich said...

What rabbits do they have left to pull out of Benny and Timmy's ass, I mean, hat?

McFearless said...

I saw the Cuban post, pretty much agreed with everything he said.

Mannwich said...

Besides outright printing?

CV said...

any tweets on topstep on support?

Mannwich said...

Agree with ahab and ben on the Cuban post, as irritating as he can be.

Anonymous said...

"you don't see people in mass quitting their jobs to day trade treasuries"

b22- exactly- people are diving into treasurys for safety- not to get rich

McFearless said...

he also made the point of saying that the 10 year yield is hardly irrational right now, something that would be evident if it were a bubble, you are still getting a positive real return at these low levels.

Mannwich said...

And if you bought a large chunk of T's at the lows, you're doing pretty damn well right now.

McFearless said...

Manny,

I agree he can be a bit wild but I've always liked Cuban, he's just very passionate, sometimes that comes across the wrong way, I can relate.

What he says about the Wall St. game couldn't be more accurate imo, and I love that he said that the odds are "stacked against" the individual investor, not that anything was "rigged", a slight, but very important difference.

karen said...

CV, no topstep yet but remember they won't be doing a video till after Labor Day (?)... I'll run my movies out to the mailbox and put BladeRunner at the top of the queue.. unless I download it.. Don't forget Red.

Jennifer.. i have VXX underwater.. DXD, too.. even now under 10K.. might close it out today.. it's a money vampire. Traded the others smarter.. Can't win 'em all.

McFearless said...

while it's still Johnny's time here, bears really need to see this 1040 zone erased.

Mannwich said...

Agreed, ben. I go back and forth on my opinions of him quite a bit. I think he nailed Wall Street dead on. The retail investor really has no business being in that game unless they truly can accept the risk and fact the dack is "stacked against" them (better term than "rigged", agreed) and can do the necessary homework themselves, but Wall Street needs them in equities to thrive. They're the "mark".

karen said...

cv.. WE already know support.. 1040, 1010, 980... : )

NLY sub 17! finally.. but DRV hardly budging.. I'm dumping that one for small gains today. I give up! I might buy some NLY and JNK, laughing..

CV said...

If you're going to get Blade Runner...

Might as well go with the DIRECTORS CUT

karen said...

mrtopstep
remember this= $ES_F #futures cant fall in love with this, get in, get out take your $$ when they give it to you and ALWAYS USE STOPS!


mrtopstep
#futures #traders 4 those that can/like risk first time down we & top notch are looking at 1034-1037 area sup obviously caution w/homes #

CV said...

@karen

I kno MY support... I just want to see if it's going to hold THIS MORNING or not :-)

Anonymous said...

karen-

are you kidding that you never saw "Blade Runner"-

those replicant's are bad asses- Darryl Hannah at her finest- the end is quite moving

CV- the director's cut doesn't have the voice over I believe- I actually liked the voice over

Anonymous said...

276K on new homes-

when it gets to zero we'll be right where we need to be

CV said...

Interesting... 1034-1037...

Because while I have 1040 as an important number, there are patterns on the chart that align with something like that (a little lower - but not outright 1010 just yet)...

My guess is that the chart is starting to draw the price channels angles and boundaries that it will follow during minor 3 of 3...

McFearless said...

Manny,

slowly but surely people are waking up to that fact about being in equities and how Wall St. is the place that makes money off that, "in the long run", not them. Whether or not we get a P3, I think Prechter's more social forecast that when this particular bear market is finally over, that stocks will be more hated than perhaps at any time before, is going to be spot on.

We seem to only be in the early stages of this, one of the wide lense reasons I'm still bullish on bonds.

CV said...

Don't look now, but with 20 minutes to go in the Johnny hour, if the market can get itself back to 1048-ish or above...

You'll have one of those "yelnick looking" 60 min candles (from chart yesterday)...

karen said...

well, futures hit 1037 10 min ago? can't tell exactly.

(d*mn safari "quit unexpectedly" on me; had to redo everything! so maddening : )

CV said...

@McF (10:08)

That and... THE FUN

McFearless said...

CV,

there is a classic daily pivot at 1037.40 and a .618 fibo at 1036.47.

good eyes.

Mannwich said...

@ben: Agreed. Not there yet. In fact, had a conversation with one of the folks on my recent SA trip. He never sold anything on the last crash and says he won't now either. Nice guy though. Works at AIG on the insurance side and joined them in a strategic planning role right before all the shit went down in '08.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

276k housing...

"The Summer of Our Discontent"

McFearless said...

CV,

I thought that Yelnick chart might come in handy...

karen said...

there are 4 cuts of Blade Runner..

Workprint, Theatrical, Final, and Theatrical & Director's...

wonder if this is the way to go: The Workprint edition is a rarely seen, newly remastered work print version of the film ???

CV said...

@ben

In the S&P cash... you have that 1039.83 as the low, and a bounce from there...

It's re-tracing wave 2 (on 1 minute charts)...

So it COULD thrust up in a 3 and get to 1048 in a jiffy...

15 minutes to go to stamp that hourly candle...

McFearless said...

"Works at AIG on the insurance side and joined them in a strategic planning role right before all the shit went down in '08."

That's the key right there....he joined them in 08, he wasn't there to feel what that company used to be. I had a client that lost over $8 million in AIG stock in 08, had been there his entire life, he refused to sell no matter what I told him, all the way to the bitter end. Believe me when I tell you, all he thinks about now is how to protect himself before another large fall, it took 2008 for me to finally get his ear.

Has he embraced the bond? Yes.

Anonymous said...

Karen- I know the theatrical has voice over- which may be helpful if you are watching for the first time

karen said...

OT: watching that oscar speech you posted last night, CV.. can you believe all 5 of those fantastic movies in one year?

McFearless said...

I still have to say:

WWTT

What Was Tiger Thinking

Elin gets more attractive with each new pic i see of her....guess it just wasn't good enough for the big baller. Nutso.

karen said...

Thanks, ahab.. i do like a voiceover..

CV said...

embrace bitchez!

CV said...

@karen

I agree with ahab... The voiceovers were good...

It helped to understand a lot of the more subtle aspects of what was going on...

karen said...

WWTT! love that..

zerohedge
For all wondering why Brian Sack (head of the PPT) is not at Jackson Hole this year, today's action should explain it


mrtopstep
#futures $ES_F in case another retest of the low take some $$ off the table & set up for another opp

McFearless said...

been hanging out here too much lately, I got my water bill yesterday, opened it up and thought of CV, lol.

CV said...

@karen

"Shawshank Redemption" is in my top 5 all time too...

McFearless said...

ah zero hedge, the gift that keeps on giving,
how's that illegal to short on POMO days call working out for them?

Mannwich said...

Agreed, cv. Have probably seen that movie more than 10 times. There was a stretch where it was on TBS literally every week.

CV said...

OK people...

Let's get those DOW 10,000 hats ready for a big celebration!

ready! lmao

McFearless said...

yeah I almost bought Shawshank once but it's on tv all the time. that is a great movie.

AmenRa said...

Well we tested the 1041.83 (.1459 from 1219.80). A close below should allow for a retest of 1010. A close above and we're headed back to 1110.02 (unfortunately).

CV said...

@Amen

Where's THE FUN in that? :-)

karen said...

BreakingNews - Colombia authorities issue red alert, highest level, for Galeras Volcano, indicating it could erupt at any moment - CNN http://bit.ly/cICgZa

Jennifer said...

I'm a little behind, just reading the Yelnick post about the wicks now. Funny, I always thought that those funny wicks were "pointing" the way that the market wanted to go. I get the whole idea of what makes the wick, which would really argue for a reversal. I'm guessing they are only good for 3-4 candles afterwards in whatever time frame you're trading in.

CV said...

all I can say is... so far this bounce off the morning lows is UNDERWHELMING & UNINSPIRED

CV said...

spewing lava bitchez!

Anonymous said...

top five lists- reminds me of the movie High Fidelity w/ Tom Cusack-

although he was talking music

CV said...

@mcf

One of the things that I've been seeing lately on Dan's charts is that he's been doing TRENDLINE breaks on the RSI's and MACD's...

(not just bullish or bearish divergences)

Sometimes it's pretty useful...

72bat said...

yes, blade runner, in my top 5 as well, favorite scene in his apartment with vangelis' love theme playing (loosely based on "you don't know me"?) encapsulates the whole premise of the story.

karen said...

mrtopstep

mrTS new to twitter = who has the symbol for SPX #options? hearing a paper paid 5.00 on 20k 1100 calls we wud like to spread the word...

McFearless said...

buying 1040 every time is only going to work until it doesn't.

it can't be that easy for long

McFearless said...

5 bucks for 1,100 calls?

well, that's interesting.

CV said...

@karen

I see that trade, but there's still twice as much volume in 1050 puts paying $3

CV said...

Maybe they're all just SELLING everything north & south of 50 and will just wait it out until Yom Kippur...

McFearless said...

given what XLF has done today that chart looks dreadful now.

karen said...

JNK hit 50 ema..

CV said...

Hi Ho Silver

CV said...

Some commodity hedge fund must have blown up on a silver short...

CV said...

That's THE FUN!

karen said...

there are some interesting takeaways from ths NLY letter:

http://annaly.com/blog/2010/08/24/HomeSalesUpDownOrSidewaysFromHere.aspx

karen said...

div yield on nly is now above 16%..

karen said...

mrtopstep

from earlier 08:43:45 rolling down??? : hearing Barclay? SPX sep 1050-1070 put sld 44k @ 10.00

Teddy KGB said...

@mcf

"buying 1040 every time is only going to work until it doesn't.

it can't be that easy for long"

---

Should have paid me on zat heand...

karen said...

mrtopstep

RT drakoncapital @mrtopstep im seeing 25k contracts traded there so far...just a sec ago another 1000 at 4.50 broken up, all done in chic

McFearless said...

stop twisting those oreo's!

C'mon Man!

I feel as though there is huge battle being fought in the market right now, point of recognition or something.

karen said...

I'll stop posting those topsteps.. unless something really seems interesting.. are Nic and I the only ones on Twitter ??

CV said...

@karen

As for me... I like the topstep tweets... so post away...

Jennifer said...

Karen -- do you ever read Harry Newton's blog? Its called In search of the Perfect Investment. He freely admits he is a yield hog. The high yield chasers are in love w/ NLY. I wonder if they know what NLY does....but there I go being so negative again :-)

McFearless said...

Karen,

I like those top step tweets, fwiw.

I'm not on twitter.

karen said...

A Real Man... sighing..

A real man is a woman's best friend. He will never stand her up and never let her down. He will reassure her when she feels insecure and comfort her after a bad day.

He will inspire her to do things she never thought she could do; to live without fear and forget regret. He will enable her to express her deepest emotions and give in to her most intimate desires. He will make sure she always feels as though she's the most beautiful woman in the room and will enable her to be the most confident, sexy, seductive, and invincible...


No... wait... sorry... I'm thinking of wine. It's wine that does all that.......
Never mind.

Yield Hog said...

Sometimes the yield hogs are right....

CV said...

"No... wait... sorry... I'm thinking of wine. It's wine that does all that.......
Never mind."

If you hadn't have come to that conclusion on your own... I would have stepped in to remind you... :-)

McFearless said...

bulls need a strong close today, none of this little dump action at 3:30.

CV said...

@karen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoSCyTgxaic&feature=search

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/08/25/oily-boom-trash-gulf-spill-heads-landfills-state-environmental-issues/?test=latestnews

Oily boom, trash from Gulf spill heads to landfills, some with state environmental issues

"The oily waste may not be the most toxic thing in those landfills," said Kurt Pennell, an environmental engineer at Tufts University who sits on a National Research Council committee studying groundwater problems near landfills and Superfund sites. "But obviously if ... the landfill isn't well controlled, that is problematic."

EPA Assistant Administrator Mathy Stanislaus, who oversees the agency's waste management plans, said the landfills can handle the oily waste properly.

"The landfills ... have the system in place, the kind of liner, the kind of monitoring systems to manage this so that there are not environmental impacts," Stanislaus said in an interview. "If there are any issues of concern, we will revisit."


...You CAN handle the oily waste!

(Apologies to Jack Nicholson)....

karen said...

Jenn.. haven't heard of harry newton but will look him up!
CV.. I forgot about that movie.. : )

CV said...

Think about it...

Just last wednesday we were at KT...

karen said...

BTW.. Jennifer.. NLY seems to be super smart.. I follow their blog..

http://www.annaly.com/blog/

CV said...

"The Last Time The 10 Year Was Here, The S&P Was At 805"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/last-time-10-year-was-here-sp-was-805

Anonymous said...

The last time the 10 Year was here, we weren't in ZIRP + QE 1.5...

Jennifer said...

Karen -- thanks, I didn't know they had a blog. I just figured that anybody that involved in MBS has to be trouble. Simplistic, maybe...but what can I say. I've never traded the stock.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

You take your 10k hat off,
You put your 10k hat on.
You do the Hokie-Pokie and you shake it all around...You put your left foot...

Oh, I forget all those ditties..

Mannwich said...

No housing recovery = no jobs recovery = the recoveryless recovery = no recovery.

CV said...

@anon

Oh... sorry... MY BAD...

Stocks are fairly and properly valued here because of the solid fundamentals that are brought about by ZIRP & QE...

karen said...

I'm feeling as tho we've come to a stand still, or stalled..

CV said...

@Manny

and according to Bill Gross...

No government entity = no housing recovery...

So let me re-phrase that...

no government = no recovery

null the sets...

government = recovery

It does not compute.... 666 fatal error

BLUE SCREEN

karen said...

GLD candle is currently black.. might be a safe short here for an overnight trade.. DRV is going to drive me to drink : )

Mannwich said...

Yep, cv. The gov't IS the housing market right now. They have no easy way out at this point. It's "keep digging" and doubling down time. They certainly won't radically change course, as that will be an implicit admission they were wrong, which our fearless elites never do.

karen said...

Jeff! Giraffes! That must have been something.. I got to feed giraffes from my hand at The Wild Animal Park on the Safari truck.. As exquisite and tempting as they are, we were told that they do not like to be touched.. Oh, my, and their eyes are perfection.. deep pools with the longest most luscious black lashes. Their tongues are blue-black and ever so long! A bit frightening but they seemed so docile. I respected the instructions but others in the group just had to stroke their necks.. and they did not like it one bit.. fascinating.

karen said...

i might buy back some DTO.. especially the 1k shares I sold above 85. Today is getting weird and weirder, to me..

karen said...

mrtopstep
[10:27:13 AM]: 10 yr U 26.5 Straddle Vs U 27C, ^ 26.25, 25 delta, UBS -7500 @ 31, straddle over.
3 minutes ago via web

mrtopstep
earlier $ZB_F shows [09:52:59 AM]: 10 yr Z 27.5-29.5 c/s, Barclays +6K @ 36, +16K all day also, 10 yyr V 25.5-26.5-27.5 c-fly, UBS -40K @ 9

Mannwich said...

Wow karen. We didn't get to feed them but walked upon three of them on an early morning walk last week. Quite a sight. We then saw more on a little drive through the game reserve, along with zebras, warthogs, hippos and other assorted animals. Pretty cool. I'll post some more of the pics on next Manny Monday's post on the other blog.

72bat said...

well, karen, if drv does drive you to drink at least it wiil make you feel as though you are the most beautiful woman in the room. (tho' i suspect you really are, regardless)

Mannwich said...

As we walked toward them, they just stared at us and slowly walked the other way, eventually going into a trot into the hills. Was fun watching them move though. Funny looking creatures.

karen said...

bat, now you are embarrassing me.. but I will say that I know I will look and feel better this evening after my son gets on a plane back to NY : )

CV said...

@karen

LOL - It was my dad's ritual to always drive me to Dulles Airport when I had to fly back to Italy after my visits...

When asked why he was so intent on handling that job... his response...

"I just wanted to make CERTAIN that you didn't miss that plane"!

karen said...

CV.. that is perfect.. seems, too, that he may have contributed to your sense of humor : )

karen said...

fyi: mrtopstep

there is a free 2 week trial link there as well as futuresmonster.com we trust we have helped u make some $$ and we will try to remain here


mrtopstep
FYI this forum is not as timely as our subsrciption service. you can visit mrtopstep.com which is still under construction & meet us.

karen said...

mrtopstep - we are working under the wing of option monster (CNBC fast money Najarian bros) they are guiding us thru this process... all the different names confuse me too! but it is a way to get the content out. subscribtion service has more flow/ideas for opportunity

McFearless said...

each move back up still look like 3's

Leftback said...

EUR-JPY 106.9910 1.0248 0.97%

Carry not dead?
Weak auction of 5y Ts, 1.37% yield and BTC < 3.

Nic said...

I had to go out, got the verdict on my Yukon vs the moose. My yukon is a write off.
Before we have a GM slagfest I will say that my mum and I and four dogs are all fine, whereas the moose which was about 1000lbs was not so fine.

karen said...

Nic.. Glad to learn that.. I assume you and your mother were wearing seatbelts... but the dogs? I sounds lucky overall!

karen said...

alaidi - #Aussie remaining sluggish. w/ limited gains in $AUDJPY (see latest IMT) & $AUDUSD, still weakest currency ahead of bernanke & GDP $$

karen said...

dto at/near low of day.. i haven't rebot..

karen said...

oh, just spent some reading time at TBP.. catching up on that Cuban business and enjoying some of the comments of philipat.. "The only equities I have are Gold Miners and EM/Asia, where I have lived for over 30 years and do know a thing or two about."

Nic said...

Yep, very lucky. Thanks :)

Leftback said...

AUDJPY will be stuck until after the election stalemate is resolved.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I wonder if we are in for a close similar to yesterday's last 30 minutes...

karen said...

while gdx is constructive and in an albeit temporary uptrend again.. there is nothing bullish about FCX on the long term weekly chart..

karen said...

OZ has more problems than the election however.. that's just been the straw to break the camel's back, i suspect.

karen said...

wishing i'd thrown some cash at tbt under 30.. even for a half point trade : )

karen said...

dto at 81.51 will be a good buy, i suspect..

karen said...

alaidi

$USDX BULLS BEWARE ahead of Bernanke's "unusual QE2 uncertainty" speech in JaxonHole & Q2 GDP revision on Friday

Leftback said...

TBT will be down again tomorrow - POMO in 10-30y bonds. Once TLT makes a lower high, I could fancy shorting bonds again.

Leftback said...

Agree with dollar bearish comment above. This is not a great set up for Bucky. Estimates of Q3 GDP now revised below 1.0%.

karen said...

CV, sorry to do this to you.. it's not My Humps, at least.. but guess what song is running thru my head???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=go8ABAkQcfk

LOL.. i just called my son by his old pet name, Cakey (as I informed him to his laundry was clean and waiting in the laundry room.) I am getting practically giddy.

Nic said...

Haha Karen, enjoy

karen said...

new quake in central CA but i didn't feel it.. off on a music tangent.. didn't Ben post a great Oasis song some months ago? (it was something other than Wonderwall.. and it was so beautiful.)

McFearless said...

I'm not really going out on a limb here saying you could easily take the other side of the statment that because GDP "estimates" have been revised lower, that the dollar may struggle.

GDP dropped in Q3 2008 more than any other time since 1982 and the dollar did what, exactly?

It's not 2008?

well, it's not 2009 either.

McFearless said...

I might have karen, can't remember, they've got some cool songs that never got "big"

their unplugged was actually classic, Liam heckling his brother from the rafters for the whole show, as he had backed out on them just prior to the gig.

karen said...

oops on C.. CV.. are you tempted ?!


zerohedge
Mayo says he believes Citi is violating securities laws in their disclosures
3 minutes ago via TweetDeck
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themosmitsos
What the fuck is CNBC talking about Market Stablization? Am I looking at the same $ES_F 10YR etc charts? WTF?!?!
4 minutes ago via web

zerohedge
Gasprino discloses Citigroup has frozen out Mike Mayo; Citi is what started the bank collapse in 2007 post Whtiney's report

McFearless said...

no worries crammer says banks could withstand a 1930's style collapse, nothing to worry about.

buy buy buy

karen said...

Well, ben, i can't find that song.. meant to buy it at the time.. and never did : ( The flashbacks I'm getting of the video were seemingly a Philadelphia street scene.. a corner store of brick or something... some billboards.

Liam Gallagher said...

"Like a Champagne Supernova in the sky...."

karen said...

dto in 82s now.. think i'll put in the limit order for 81s..

btw.. DRV.. I don't even want it but it is tempting me.. UFB.

karen said...

scratch that.. trying for a piece of dto here and will buy again a point lower..

Leftback said...

Karen,

Do you really want to short crude here in the face of a weakening dollar outlook? Why not wait for it to hit a retracement target?

Look at Treasuries... yields are rising after the lousy auction. Some of the forced covering may be over. Oil has bounced hard off its lows.

LB's dividend stocks from this morning - green !!

Another POMO tomorrow in 10y and 30y, so there may be one last gasp in TLT. You have been warned, Jeff.

karen said...

i'm not getting filled.. yet, LB.. on DTO, that is.. trading around a core position that is up over 30%..

karen said...

drv making a new low on the day.. if i didn't have some under 25, i'd probably buy more, rolling my eyes.. hate that etf..

CV said...

@mcf

"I'm not really going out on a limb here saying you could easily take the other side of the statment that because GDP "estimates" have been revised lower, that the dollar may struggle."

---

Yeah, but when it's Joe Lavorgna REVISING GDP estimates down... people tilt their heads & listen (rolls eyes)

CV said...

@karen

Every day, C and SPY have the most volume of options contracts traded...

So I suppose the good news is that a piker could get in there without getting EATEN ALIVE by a bigger fish...

Larry Kudblow said...

"Joe Lavorgna REVISING GDP estimates down..."

is surely a LATE EVENT in the realization of slower growth, and therefore as far as Mr Market is concerned, a CONTRARY INDICATOR.

karen said...

1051! i would love for this to hold.. that would mean a weak and weaker spx.. and more bulls would capitulate.

Leftback said...

The action in Ts isn't supporting the bear case here. I'm not going to capitulate today, but I am happy to help you get filled.

At a lower DTO price, obviously.

CV said...

OK... Which commodity hedge fund got blown up on silver today?

Brian the Broker said...

I don't know, CV, but it's all part of

THE FUN.

karen said...

LB, the action in Ts is a ten year under at 2.6% yield.. that is bearish and deflationary.. the little squiggles don't matter, yet..

karen said...

mrtopstep

Henry 12:35:49 CRUDE: nxt upside pivot is 72.35. A key reversal will require daily sttl abve 73.00. that we do not think is likely to occur

CV said...

Speaking of "filling"...

All this WEAK RISE action here is making me more bearish by the minute...

If we don't fill that gap from yesterdays open by either the end of the day today (or overnight), I'm going to start going by the notion that the market wants to extend way lower and forget about that for the time being...

Some fib areas from todays low back to complete coverage of that gap would be...

around 1957 (61.8%)
around 1061 (78.6%) - which would be just under, but not touch the gap...

karen said...

tomorrow: initial and continuing claims..

Nic said...

Please vote for Michael from Nordland - click the heart if you don't want google to translate for you. You will see why
http://www.lano.no/fylkesvinnere/flest-stemmer#/

Mannwich said...

Great post from Mr. Practical at Minyanville, via ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-were-all-race-bottom

karen said...

okay, i think i did that properly : )

Leftback said...

Karen,

The 10y is clearly under the influence of forced unwinding and irrational exuberance, for the time being. I agree that credit leads, but that is under free market conditions without distortion.

karen said...

does anyone remember that music ben posted one morning who knows how many months ago? i'm trying the search "feature" of this blog but it is not.. a feature, that is.

karen said...

"NIKKEI Don't Lose That Number" was exceedingly clever, btw..

CV said...

@LB

Hey LB

are there any "penny bonds" that Johnny can get out there and daytrade for 1000% profits when he figures out stocks aren't his cup of tea anymore?

CV said...

@karen

Well since Nikkei LOST it's number (not so much 9,000 - but the fact that it chugged into 20% off of most recent highs)...

Guess what the DOW is going to do soon?

karen said...

just did an overlay of $nikk and $spx.. which one leads?! LOL

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