AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection




Creditcane™: I am the omega of the market. Heed my warnings.



SPX
Bullish long day. Bullish thrusting was gored. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Held 1041.83 again (.1459 fibo from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.69). QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Failed the SMA(144) again. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.31).




VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) and now the SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 27.46).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Possible non confirmation of bullish thrusting. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding onto gains (heading towards the 0%). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1227.00).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 1.2654).



JNK
Bullish short day. Still failing to close gap. Closed above yesterdays midpoint which weakens the bears game. Still above the SMA(89) and back above the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bullish LONG day. Confirmed inverted hammer. There are two gaps that need to be dealt with (closed one of them today). The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 held. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 27.81).



AUDJPY
Bullish long day. Another bullish thrusting got gored. Tested but failed the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed above the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Back above the upper trendline and the SMA(233). Still below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4236.96). Avoided a weekly 3LB reversal (how? why?).



GS
Bearish short day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Slowly inching lower (well not anymore). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 146.74).



LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.27.10

Heh heh heh.. this isn't your grandfather's bond market, is it? Credit markets used to be like lawn bowls, with 0.1% moves on the day, duly noted by learned scribes. Now it's up and down 2% a day, a sure sign that those bad boys, the highly leveraged hedge funds, have probably entered the fray.

Is nothing sacred? Bond trading should be like croquet, with elegantly dressed participants skillfully outwitting each other between sips of Bollinger. Suddenly it's like the WWF or the most bitter of college football rivalries, like Michigan v Ohio State, or Alabama v Auburn.

Here's KEITH JACKSON's take on the action:

"Whoa, Nellie! Folks, we got a real BARN-BURNER going on here in the credit market. You can tell that these BOND BULLS and BEARS just don't like each other a whole lot, we got a lot of good old-fashioned hittin' goin' on, and looky here, the LONG BOND seems to slow to get up, after being GANG TACKLED in the backfield, folks...."

Thanks, Keith. Well, it was a RISK-ON day, I think we all know that, as market participants heard the helicopters hovering and threatening to drop dollar bills on an unsuspecting populace. Today was a massive STEEPENER, with duration being sold in all markets. The 5y Ts were sold as well as investors sought out higher yield. HY outperformed IG, which had been looking rich in any case of late. Even TIPS were sold on a Flight From Quality. Doing the math, LB would say that there must be a lot of cash on hand, participants are waiting for developments.

Corpies: LQD -0.90%; AGG -0.55%; JNK 0.62%; HYG -0.11%;
Govies: TLT -2.83%; IEI -0.58%; TIP -0.59%
Hedgies: TBT 5.66%

Kudos to anyone who shorted the long bond last night - that was a ripper, we were simply not trading Ts due to lack of liquidity (poor planning). We did nothing, but smiled at the thought of having booked a 15% or so gain in TLT before today's slaughter. High volatility is often a characteristic of turns in the market, so yields may rise a little here. In fact, the Fed would like credit market participants to take on more risk. This is the intent of the QE lite.

Overall, the POMOs should keep a bid under the Treasury market and we see a quiet period for Ts and some tightening of spreads ahead. That's what we are counting on as we have moved out on the risk curve in search of yield, and will buy Ts from time to time as a hedge.









24 comments:

CV said...

abc-x (on vix)...

Great... time to move on...

Back away from the coke lines... kiss your Ukranian hooker goodbye... Return to your trading desk in the city...

and SELL...

AmenRa said...

LMAO

Leftback said...

Accurate, perhaps, but a week early.

Next week is the last week before Labor Day. Robots in charge.
Big boys still in the Hamptons....

Leftback said...

More range-bound "FUN" ahead of us this week....

CV said...

Screw the FUN...

Cv has had e-NUF...

CV said...

Sorry Amen...

I hijacked your thread to post a NEW CHART...

This goes back to the EXPANDING WEDGE thesis that CV brought up over 6 weeks ago... The charts I'd presented (at the time) were these...

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/TEmozhcRBwI/AAAAAAAABgo/HEmX-gNIU3w/s1600/spx+hourly_72310.JPG

&

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/TEnhD8NOiSI/AAAAAAAABhA/TJzr5iH_cLM/s1600/ganns.JPG

---

With this new chart... It hardly looks COMPLETE to me...

skynet said...

'bots don't need no stinkin' big boyz to mess wit' ur world, wetware boy!

CV said...

I'm trying hard to remember if BLACK MONDAY happened on a MOMO Monday, or not...

Naw... It couldn't have happened because stocks only go up on Mondays...

Black Monday must have been on a Tuesday or something... I needn't bother looking...

karen said...

I'm glad you put that chart up on this thread! I have a funny feeling about this monday.. i remember a ramp up friday at the end of the dot.com summer where i sold everything.. Where i went wrong was re-entering the market at the 30% or so slide.. i think it went to 60% down..

CV said...

@karen

Certainly a 30% slide would help my positions right now, but I'm certainly not counting on that...

I've re-entered on the short side again (about 2-1), but the close was right on my entry (1065 - which is a number that I've been talking about for quite sometime now on this blog)...

We'll see if they "bring the steel" on Monday...

I can endure that for quite a number of handles if necessary... But really, I'm only going to "start" re-thinking on anything that looks strong north of the 1070-1080 range...

Even then - It would only be to HEDGE more upside risk...

I'm entered long dollar now too...

CV has made a few profits in August (on that move to SPY 106 - that mostly only you and I were talking about)...

So it's time to "use 'em or "lose" em...

Thing is (on that chart I put up)... With those ANGLES, I'm really only looking for something around 1000, for now... If it's in the middle of a 5 wave down, a likely number would be around 1002...

With possible extension to 992, or 970-ish...

CV said...

IMO -

The last time we had a day which was as "STUPID" as Friday's trade was on 8/10...

Which also had the characteristic of the FED getting into the middle of things...

The next day, the market figured it was all BS, and sold off hard... That's when we were at 1129...

I cannot, for the life of me, believe the market is serious in thinking that a few words on a microphone at Jackson Hole are going to re-ignite the RISK-ON trade for any duration...

Anyway... Asia will end up telling the REAL story (so at least we know where to look)...

CV said...

@all

I'm going to leave this thread up thru SUNDAY NIGHT POST by Andy T...

mcHAPPY said...

I don't usually go to daneric's but b/c ewi is not giving any alternate counts, which usually means they are wrong, I decided to look. I like the alt(i) count.

Nic said...

Comment picked up from another blog:
AAII sentiment now has Bulls down to 20.7% - lowest number since March of 2009.
That does not make me optimistic for a drop any time soon

McF - do you have a link for where you buy your sentiment ratios? Wouldn't mind subscribing.

Nic said...

CV - check out this song - BRILLIANT:
http://youtu.be/-fTh2GffJsM

AmenRa said...

Nic

Here's the link to the sentiment survey: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

Anonymous said...

Nic: From Decision Point. Not sure if it's what you're looking for.

SENTIMENT INDICATORS
-----------------------------
Wall Street Sentiment Survey: 22% Bulls 56% Bears (8/20)
AAII Investor...............: 21% Bulls 49% Bears (8/25)
Investors Intelligence......: 33% Bulls 31% Bears (8/20)
Short Interest Ratio(Aug 15): 3.4 (5.0 or greater is bullish.)
Bollinger PVI (OEX).........: 0.97 (2.0 or greater is BUY Signal)
Bollinger PVI (CBOE)........: 0.83 (2.0 or greater is BUY Signal)
Gold (GTU Prem/Discount)....: +5.1% Premium to NAV - Sentiment Bullish

Nic said...

Thank you anonymouse

Nic said...

Thanks AmenRa

mcHAPPY said...

The sentiment surveys are why I think minute i just ended. FWIW, I think Daneric's count of 1010 being the end of minor 1 is questionable.

Anonymous said...

@mcHappy

FWIW - I'll take the other side... But - it takes two to make a market...

Nic - that music link was fantastic :-)

CV

Anonymous said...

Albert Pujols honored for foundation

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5506684

Ben22 said...

It all begins on 9/4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps-UDRGNPNs&feature=related

CV said...

WR Laveranues Coles: 'I think I'm done'

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/news/story?id=5509593


---

LOL - Looks like LC won't be going in the first round this year...

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