Morning Audibles 8.26.10 - Out this Morning - Be Back Soon

I'm going to be out most of the morning, so I'm just going to have to keep it simple, and just give you a primer on what's going on this morning, and utilize the support of my new assistant to explain to you the debt problem...


Stocks Rebound From Seven-Week Low, U.S. Futures Climb
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-26/asian-stocks-copper-rise-yen-weakens-on-speculation-japan-may-intervene.html


Exceprt:
Stocks rebounded from a seven-week low, U.S. index futures gained and commodities advanced as earnings improved and speculation increased that the Federal Reserve will act to support the U.S. recovery. The yen weakened.


(CV Raises hand in rooms and asks): "Is this the same FED that was saying this a few weeks ago? 'Nevertheless, most official and private forecasters still expect trend or above-trend growth.  Last week’s FOMC statement noted that “…the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization…,” which we interpret as growth of around 3% coupled with a modest decline in the unemployment rate to 9% or a bit below over the next year.  And according to the August 2010 survey by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Inc., the average private-sector forecaster still expects real GDP growth of 2.4% in the third quarter, 2.7% in the fourth quarter, and 3% in 2011 (on a Q4/Q4 basis), as well as a drop in the unemployment rate from 9.5% now to 8.8% at the end of 2010.'... Just asking? - I want to get my facts straight


“QE No. 2 is going to come over the next quarter,” Alain Bokobza, (who is changing his name to "bazooka") the head of multiasset strategy at Societe Generale SA in Paris, said on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move with Francine Lacqua.” “This might be a trigger to allocate out of bonds into more riskier assets including equities or commodities.”


The gain in U.S. futures indicated the S&P 500 will advance for a second day. A report may show claims for jobless benefits declined to 490,000 last week from a nine-month high of half a million the prior week, according to a Bloomberg survey of 48 economists. The Labor Department is due to release the data today at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. U.S. gross domestic product probably expanded at a 1.4 percent pace in the second quarter, down from the 2.4 percent rate calculated last month, a Bloomberg survey indicated before a Commerce Department report due tomorrow.


In other news, the Labor Department and the BEA are scheduled to announce that the "great Pumpkin will bring toys to all boys and girls on October 31st, When that fails to occur, they'll remind you that Santa will arrive on the night of December 25th... and when that doesn't happen, the tooth fairy will make a few unscheduled appearances sometime... To be determined later...


All I really want to know is "How Much Is This Costing Me?"... This is where I'll need the assistance of my lovely new assistant to explain it to you (on account of CV is busy this morning)...





Here's how it got to be that way... (Turns out it's just a WORD thing after all)...




But relax... There's a a guy who can solve all of this... He's just gotta finish his lobster dinner first...







"Down Down Down"

254 comments:

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McFearless said...

while I am confident on Gross ability I am going to have sell at some point.

it's such a big fund now,...that scares me. PIMCO gets a lot of press, whole thing making me nervous

karen said...

mrtopstep

sum #beans #option 2day JP Morgan Sold 1200 Nov 1100 Calls 11.25-12 FC Stone Sold 500 Jan 1040 Calls 42-43Obrien Bot 1000 Oct 940 Puts 3-3.5

karen said...

this is all too confusing for me anyway: mrtopstep

Goldenberg Bot 500 Mch 1040 Calls/ Sold 1000 Mch 1200 Calls 10-10.5 db ABN Sold 250 Sep 1000 Straddles 11 Man Bot 1500 Nov 1040 Calls 23.5

McFearless said...

If the S&P ends up in the 900's, even high 9's in September I've got a put option that should pay me quite well.

if they dont', I'll feel a little cold steel, and then have a frou frou drink

karen said...

Ben, but aren't you getting a decent yield? wasn't that the point? maybe you are focusing on price too much..

maybe i don't know what i'm talking about.. the only bond i'm into after all is this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJDqi9oeDZA

Mannwich said...

Foreclosures fall but rise in delinquencies cause concern. Troubling trends abound.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/business/27default.html?hp

CV said...

@Amen

all I know is that there are 3 trading days left in August... and the SPX is very close to 1030

McFearless said...

karen,

the yield on PTTAX used to be a lot larger, I think currently it's in the 3% range, so it's not really compelling, which explains my concern over price.

I had a prospect come in the other day and ask me if I've ever heard of the fund, that scared me. Over the last several years when I introduce it, while Bill Gross is a household name to us, I haven't really come across maybe more than 3-4 retail investors that ever even heard of him, now I get someone asking me if I'VE heard of the fund.....the times, they are a changin

karen said...

alaidi

ud think the bulls may claim this day for quick gains & take profit by end of session or later in Asia but this? it stinks

McFearless said...

as of 7-31 yield on PTTAX is 3.19%

that's no NLY.

karen said...

nor JNK..

CV said...

Yeah... thinks don't look too good here...

karen said...

alaidi - we'd be looking at $SPX 1040==the low held before & during Flash crash.. Bernanke has NO reason to paint postv picture $USDX $$

McFearless said...

I care about nobody's opinion on the dollar currently, all the arguments are the same, as they have been for two years against the dollar, a wave counter must see the S&P and dollar counts slowly lining up again to develop the all the same markets theme, this is very exciting.

CV said...

Albert Edwards: "We Are Returning To 450 On The S&P"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-we-are-returning-450-sp

CV said...

Wait... let me parse that properly...

450 bitchez!

CV said...

My question is this...

So all the "E-MINI" players are getting $25 bucks for a 1 point move right?

So a 10 point move (at 1000) is a 1% swing, which may not be THAT hard to catch - but you'd have to be on your toes...

Getting a 10 point move at 450 isn't going to be very easy...

McFearless said...

there is no way we go to 450 without a


CATALYST

...just practicing for my fast money tryout

I was screaming when I said that....and I've been tanning.

Tim Seymour (or less) said...

catalyst bitchez!

McFearless said...

slight clarification on the ES

each pt pays you $50, or $12.50 per tick.

also, depending on how big you trade, remember that futures get favored tax treatment.

Leftback said...

This market is a steaming pile.

CV said...

@mcf

I stand corrected...

Still... the song remains the same...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcYZlRWWxO0

McFearless said...

yeah, i got what you were saying. futures are no joke either way.

CV said...

That cheering you hear going on in the background people is because...

DRUMROLL

The DOW just crossed over 10,000!

CV said...

now it's booing...

McFearless said...

I can hear Maria now

we are off the lows

Erin

there's a silver lining

Karl

when do I get to do another McDonals special

Becky

I'm on Warren's plane

Kudlow

Who's got the coke?

Crammer

I, I mean they, they know nothing....

Dr. J.

Give us a date Robert? Give us a target?

Steve Asso
Inflation will crush you, and if it doesn't, I will

Mannwich said...

Cheering again.

Mannwich said...

And now for some "good" news:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/corelogic-11-million-us-properties-with.html

Mannwich said...

Wow.

•Negative equity remains concentrated in five states: Nevada, which had the highest percentage negative equity with 68 percent of all of its mortgaged properties underwater, followed by Arizona (50 percent), Florida (46 percent), Michigan (38 percent) and California (33 percent).

Bob Pissonme said...

The DOW in the red here is a "bullish sign" for stocks...

karen said...

OT: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/08/donald-bren-billionaire.html

Billionaire Donald Bren does not need to pay more child support, jury rules

McFearless said...

Bob,

what are the traders on the floor telling you?

McFearless said...

23% of all residential properties with negative equity per manny's link.

green shoots?

how crazy is that phrase starting to look?

I realize it was for this crowd when it first started of course.

CV said...

ah yes... "green chutes"

karen said...

mrtopstep

afraid to ask , but is anyone HAPPY???
less than 10 seconds ago via TweetDeck
Reply Retweet

mrtopstep
[02:40:57 PM]: Thought of the day...is an era of deflation, is there a better asset than cash, on a risk adjusted basis...
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck

mrtopstep
[02:17:23 PM]: lots of opinions flying abound thank you Ben....
3 minutes ago via TweetDeck

alaidi
looks like $USDX selloff will be RE-amplified into Asia as stocks stabilize . $USDCAD back at 1.0520s $$
4 minutes ago via TweetDeck

mrtopstep
RT @clusterstock Major Bank Shares Crawling Lower Into The Close by @WhiteGM http://read.bi/cYlU7t

McFearless said...

"is anyone HAPPY???"

Ahab and Snookie

"is an era of deflation, is there a better asset than cash, on a risk adjusted basis"

probably not

"lots of opinions flying abound thank you Ben"

no problem guys, I'm here every day

karen said...

ben.. lol.. glad you read all that.. i thot it was too good to not just post the whole lot quickly.. : )

heads up on JJC!

karen said...

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/08/wsj-hidenburg-omen-creater-sticks-to.html

CV said...

@karen

actually - JJC might (to me) at first glance looks like it might roll over BIG TIME...

Sheep boy says...

Things look pretty BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHD out there

Mannwich said...

Weak ass close here.

karen said...

guess we are not gonna see my bottom today !!

CV said...

I'm starting to get some major vibes here that we're going down to the 992-1000 zone before labor day...

But i can't bring myself to going all in to play for it...

Leftback said...

"karen said...
guess we are not gonna see my bottom today !!"

.. but we did see your panties, Karen....

McFearless said...

eh, no karen bottom today but I'm guessing those french shorts were enough for a few people here.

are these sell-offs in the close starting to make people a little nervous?

McFearless said...

volume not quite as strong as last two days...wondering if this just a B wave and we'll have that C wave up still, which could be a decent rally if that happens.

McFearless said...

I knew leftback would be all over that comment, lol.

Sarko said...

Are you shorting La France? The impertinence...

Mannwich said...

Sentiment....due for a bounce?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/bulls-reach-lowest-since-mar-09-according-to-aaii/

CV said...

Why should sentiment be low?

After all... The FED is going to print money and the government is going to pass stimulus packages forever...

That ought to "fix" things...

CV said...

All that tells me is that sentiment obviously wasn't LOW ENOUGH in March '09...

karen said...

that last ten min $spx candle was something.. ditto for $indu and $compq.. funny how those candles are indistinguishable from each other.. wonder what could cause that : )

karen said...

CV @ 4:24-25.. you are so funny, really. you know, you could raise your subscription price and not lose one of us : )

karen said...

d*mn.. posting has died and I have two good links! hope they show up..

McFearless said...

it would not be wise to read sentiment in an absolute manner like that or to use one sentiment survey in isolation.

here is how it can be dangerous, note the date:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/04/excess-bullish-sentiment-waning/

My comment was as follows in that thread, every single sentiment indicator we follow closely was screaming TOP TOP when he put that post up:

"Perhaps in AAII, Investors Intelligence is not showing this. Many technicians also note that polls such as Investors Intelligence tend to moderate toward tops.

Daily Sentiment Index from trade-futures has been between 86-92% bulls since last September, the last time DSI even saw a single day reading above 90% was June 2007. It was below 5% bulls last March.

You can’t time anything off these sentiment readings but bullish sentiment is hardly “waning”. I think the dividend paid out on the DOW or S&P says as much, sentiment indicators aside. Perhaps the CBOE put/call is another example of extreme bullish sentiment."

While sentiment might be due for a bounce at these levels, don't be surprised if it doesn't translate to much of anything in the market, sentiment got really bad in early 2009, I mean really bad, but only 13 months later it was already back at new all time highs. After the 1987 crash, it took years for sentiment to get back to where it was prior to the crash, this was not so after the 07-09 market puke, and it's a hangover from the 90's optimism that still lingers. From a wave perspective that's what wave 2 is supposed to do, so it's no surprise to see such a rapid drop if wave 2 has in fact topped, but we should put that into context. If this is a primary wave 3, or even if it is Andy's big C wave, and neither of those are certain at this point, sentiment will get even worse on the negative side than it was in 2009.

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