Morning Audibles 3.26.10 - Musical Chairs (to Tetris Music)

Sometimes waiting around for a market break feels like a game of musical chairs. 


I suppose musical chairs can be fun, when you're a kid. (OTOH, what a better way to teach kids at a young age that they don't fit in, they're losers, so go stand in the corner while the other kids fight it out). Now you know where the idea for the reality show 'Survivor' came from...


Don't these people look like they're having fun?


Usually doesn't end this way (with everyone laughing). And why does the guy in the pink shirt look like he wished the guy on the other end had landed in his lap instead. I mean, you'd think he's be fishing for dollar bills out of his pocket instead of staring down the aisle (if you know what I mean). For his own part, the other guy looks like he'd be happy to oblige. Couple more rounds guys. Only a couple more rounds and we can book you two a room!


Now try playing musical chairs against a bunch of computer driven algos written by MIT nerds, who, just to annoy you, decided to loop the TETRIS music as the "game on", "game off" indicator...


Quick! toggle that bar over to the left and flip it 90 degrees you jackass!


Sometimes the best thing to do is to shut off the music and let others play the game. Things are sometimes too confusing in the short term (whether you're a fundamental trader, a technical trader, or both).


- What's the dollar doing?
- Is options pinning involved?
- What's the latest yak from politicians?
- Why is this so over sold/bought?
- Why did Gross/Soros/Bernanke say that?


My K.I.S.S. idea was to take a weekly view of the SPX over the past 10 years to see if it revealed anything. Here's what I came up with...




The chart is "sans" annotations. I'm just going to tell you what I see here:


- The downward trend line is from the March 2000 highs (this makes the entire 2006-2008 period appear to be a bubble - we are back to that trendline, and IMO, in the "noise" phase where to takes the markets a few weeks to figure out if we're really going to go higher, or if this is a serious barrier).
- The wavy line is the 144MA (weekly). While we crossed through this to the upside on yesterdays move, the market came SERIOUSLY reeling back. Depending on Friday's action, we may not 'close' the week above that MA.
- The market went into serious meltdown in 2008 after abandoning that MA
- In 2003, it took the markets a few weeks of tap dancing on it before doing a skyward move. 8 months later, it had retraced the entire move.
- The fibonacci levels you see are the RETRACEMENT from October '02 lows back to the March '00 highs. Note that THAT retracement NEVER really got past 50%. That level corresponds to the price levels we're at now (not FIBO wise - based on the '07 highs/'08 lows), but rather we're around those previous price levels (as if you were to fold the chart and erase 7 years).


Draw your own conclusions... CV's takeaway is that it's about time for the market to decide if we're going to just "bubble-up" again, or, if this was all just an exercise to get back to a more manageable slide down, rather than armageddon... 


Or in other terms, this is where the music stops (or keeps playing)...




316 comments:

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Leftback said...

"is these home buyer tax credit mental"

peeing into a bucket with a hole in it?

Nic said...

The Won what a joke. Now they say gold is going up because a Korean ship sank.

CV said...

@Nic (1:28)

Hollywood magic!

I-Man said...

I've noticed everytime we cross over 200 comments, my shit gets weird.

I-Man said...

There we go... back in action.

Nic said...

So gold is rallying because a Korean ship sank now ... (sigh)

Geordie Laforge said...

There was a problem with the Warp Core.

I-Man said...

These guys are so friggin predictable it aint even funny.

At least mix up your trade amounts with some odd digits now and then to cover your tracks...

Nic said...

as usual I am on the wrong page ...

Lord Blankfiend said...

Must... extract... more... profit....

We would liquefy all of you if we could make a profit.

I-Man said...

"Their SPY MO"

2000
5000

If things are really precarious,

25000

(but pull it back within 5 minutes once things get tripped.)

Chief Vampire Squid said...

Nic
Crude ain't gonna close below 80 either ...

I-Man said...

NOW... you might be able to get a short in right as they are pulling back on the juice...

I-Man said...

But more than likely, the work is done for a few... and now its "us" who will be trading against "us".

Because momentum, synthetic or not, is still momentum.

CV said...

@I-Man (1:35)

"I've noticed everytime we cross over 200 comments, my shit gets weird."

Mine does too...

It's CV's fault... If I stop "yammerin' my flap" about everything... We'd get this puppy down to about a dozen comments a day...

CV doesn't know when to shut up... He's fun to go drinking with tho' :-)

Never in a bad mood! :-)

CV said...

Even the BAD (critical things), are more of a JOKE to CV than anything else...

It's how I keep my sanity...

More the John Stewart type than the Unabomber...

Nic said...

CV - never in a bad mood is why you have a dog!

karen said...

uup moving up.. sell off into the close.. and on gold, it that's all the lift it could muster and the trend is still down.

as for the housing tax credits.. the law of unintended consequences and oversupply of resale/short sale/and foreclosures should render it a doa.

i am as cynical as bruce; we are devolving.

Mannwich said...

@cv: Around mid to late June. And they're not too bad in the cities, except for early a.m. and dusk/dark. If there's a little wind or heat, they're not bad at all.

CV said...

@Chief Vampire Squid

So now "Count Chocula", & "Quake" have made an appearance on SURVIVOR CAPITAL today...

We're waiting for "Frankenberry", and "Quisp" and we'll have our MONSTER CEREAL collection fulfilled...

I-Man said...

Dont forget about old "Booberry"...

Nic said...

If AUDUSD breaks 90 I am going to do my happy dance

Mister Data said...

I am curious about your human markets and have studied them with my Android mind.

According to the data logs I have read during the prior Earthling nanosecond, prices should be known at all times to all participants according to the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Therefore, there should be little buying and selling of commodities such as Cold Pressed Latinum and Euridium Ore.

Also what are these Vampire Squids? Do they inhabit the Cardassian sector?

Nic said...

The vampire squid is everywhere Mr Data ...

AmenRa said...

Mister Data

The vampire squids are in the Khardasian sector...

McFearless said...

"Now they say gold is going up because a Korean ship sank."

Must have been some gold on the boat...you know, supply and demand.


lol!

McFearless said...

Hey Mister Data, remember me from that DMT trip?

Mannwich said...

This new housing principle reduction proposal for the unemployed has gone beyond the point of "overreaching", IMO. This shit is never going to end.

Leftback said...

Kim chee futures advance as shorts squeezed by sinking.

Mannwich said...

This is interesting. B, bu, but my "friend" from Piper says the banks "didn't need" the bailouts......Yeah, right.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/delinquencies-continue-rising/#comments

Leftback said...

Principal reduction = cramdowns = bank writedowns?

It is absurd. DEBTORS stay home, don't work, UNCLE pay mortgage.
The rest of us, work, rent and pay taxes.

???

Mannwich said...

I think there's going to be a tipping point where even hard core Dems say "wait a minute O-man". Why should I, as someone who wasn't irresponsible and bought more house and things than I can afford, pay MY mortgage anymore? This is BEYOND absurd. How in the hell can we get back to incenting the right behaviors when all we see are the wrong behaviors being rewarded?

Mannwich said...

Off to hit a few at the range. Be back later.

I-Man said...

There you go Manny...

Now lets get this selloff underway.

McFearless said...

"How in the hell can we get back to incenting the right behaviors when all we see are the wrong behaviors being rewarded?"

Answer: Deflationary crash

CV said...

@Nic (1:46)

"CV - never in a bad mood is why you have a dog!"

Now THAT's the only thing that could ever be said to make me sad...

OK people... THIS IS it... CV is now motivated to PULL BACK THE curtain...

In the AMEN RA's DAILY CANDLE WRAP thread... CV is going to link up a photo collection of HIMSELF & HIS DOG (in Italy)...

It was the one of the 'saddest' things I ever had to do (to have to leave my dog in Italy when I moved back to the States)...

Sad to part ways, (but really better for him)... as you'll see... He LOVED the place, had MANY adoring caretakers, and made out just fine in the end)...

His name was 'Chappi'...

Photo collection to follow...

Mannwich said...

@ben: Well, there you go. Gonna be a hard lesson indeed.

DL said...

Mannwich @ 2:08

But it's coming out of TARP.

That's free money!

CV said...

@Mister Data

Um... "May you live long and prosper"... or... "May the force be with you"... (whichever applies)...

I-Man said...

And its almost wedding season, so look for the Father of the Bride Financial Stimulus Package of 2010 to hit the wires any day now.

Mannwich said...

@DL: Ha! No kidding. And the Piper guy last night tried to tell me about all those "profits" the taxpayer was making off of TARP. Sure thing, buddy. Guy had no idea I've been HIGHLY immersed in the details of this mess for over 2 years now, much to the detriment of my health.

I-Man said...

And I dont get why yall are so upset over the mortgage mods...

Free housing is a right, not a privilege.

Get your entitlements straight you teabagging rednecks.

CV said...

@Amen (2:02)

If they're in the KARDASHIAN SECTOR I might go have a "look see"

karen said...

This is for Bruce even tho i know he is taking a hike!

AT&T to take $1 bln charge on health-care billFont size: A | A | A
2:11 PM ET 3/26/10 |SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- AT&T Inc. said it plans to take a non-cash charge of about $1 billion in the first quarter following the passage of the health-care reform bill earlier this week, according to a filing submitted by the company Friday. The telecommunication giant will also evaluate changes to its health care benefits for employees and retirees.

CV said...

@I-Man (2:09)

x2...

Refer to CV's (1:09) for reference...

CV said...

@McF (2:10)

x100

McFearless said...

We need a Chick-Fil-A bill.

Just saying, I only want my fair share of chicken, all I want is what I have coming to me.

CV said...

@McF (2:21)

Go talk to Peggy (or stand in line behind her)... She's waiting for her 12 piece bucket after her gas and mortgage get paid...

CV said...

@karen (2:17)

GOOD CATCH!

See... this is EXACTLY what I was talking about in, I can't remember what timestamp post...

The HC bill has absolutely MATSLAMMED budget projections for Q2 earnings (which begin to be reported in 2 weeks)...

Whether you like him or not, KD has been all over this... HC plans, for the next 3 years are going to be GOUGE CITY...

Way to think about UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES Barry the community organizer!

CV said...

@I-Man

(1:29)... not (1:09)

CV said...

1167/1168

Ok... Here's where the move to 1153 starts...

Get out your DAY TRADING "pea shooters" Johnny...

...and "sing along with Lloyd"

I-Man said...

Gotcha...

McFearless said...

I haven't really looked at any of the proposals to help unemployed homeowners but a couple thoughts:

1. If you can't afford the home while being unemployed for a short period of time...you cannot afford the home period.

2. How long do they get help? Are we counting on these people getting back to full time work anytime soon, or will they be saving so much on healthcare that won't matter?

3. Why are we going to help a lot of these people skate payments on an asset that could likely still decline quite a bit?

That's off the top....

Nic said...

Panic over. South Korea now say it is unlikely that North Korea caused the ship to sink and that the “vessel” that N Korea fired upon was a flock of birds …

CV said...

@I-Man

I ALREADY KNOW you're on the same page...

because you think my own damn thoughts before I think them myself for crying out loud...

B-cuz I'm too busy looking for Kim Kardashian fotos to ever do things in time...

I should work for the SEC at 2 BILLS LARGE a year dammit!

CV said...

@Nic

They were just trying to "play out" the TOMORROW NEVER DIES plot in real life...

Kim Jong Il got the DVD late...

Nothing to see... move on! :-)

Lord Blankfiend said...

DESK, please..

Hello. This is LLOYD. WTF are we doing? Generate volatility.
Are we PUMPING or DUMPING today?

What? JAMIE has PPT today. AGAIN?
Then do some SELLING, asswipe, and be quick about it.

What? Because otherwise we can't PUMP it on Monday pre-open.
You traders are too stupid to live sometimes.

Come on, put Granny in the sausage machine.
How do you expect to make BONUS? Trade.

Austin Powers said...

the “vessel” that N Korea fired upon was a flock of birds …

Should have fired at A FLOCK OF SEAGULLS, babee...

Nic said...

McFearless - healthcare arbitrage advice from Mr Denninger:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2109-Health-Care-Arbitrage-Obama-And-The-Dems.html

McFearless said...

Damn, Austin Powers beat me to the flock of seagulls joke.

Yeaaah Baby

karen said...

Mastering the Art of Upsetology had NOTHING to do with what I thought, LOL!

CV said...

@McF (2:35)

Here's how OBAMA sees it... (not that I want to be inside HIS head... EVER)...

Get the INCOME TO LOAN RATIO (currently at 31%) down to whatever matches what they get in terms of unemployment benefits...

See? It all fits... ACCOUNTING WISE...

Reduce principal accordingly...

Thanks for making accounting so simple Barry! :-)

72bat said...

damn! you guys seem to be calling the turns on the very dime today - kudos

DL said...

McF @ 2:35

If you want socialism for people who don't feel like paying health insurance premiums, then you gotta put up with socialism for people who don't feel like making their mortgage payments.

Just sit back and let uncle "O" pay for everything.

CV said...

@Flock of Seagulls

(In my best John Travolta voice)

"Don't aim for the hair... He hits my HAIR... I work for 2 hours & he hits my HAIR"...

Leftback said...

We are out. It's been a decent week and we fear the PPT.

MONDAY belongs to the MOMOs. ADP # is Wednesday, they will trade off of that b/c market is closed on FRIDAY. So we will be looking at some strong BUCKY trades on Tuesday so will be peering at gold and miner charts over the weekend.

So long, peeps. It's been a fun week, and we are all SEXY BITCHES.

CV said...

@72bat

What? are you DAFT?

We're not PEOPLE! We're 'effin ALGOS dammit!

"Daisy...Daisy" (was a song my cousin used to sing)

CV said...

@LB

No pennies in front of the steamroller?

Where's your COURAGE lad?

karen said...

How many homes do banks have up their sleeves?

72bat said...

CV -
duly noted all references will be by acronyms/initials/logos, cv, dl, hal, i-man et. al.

72at said...

courage is to be had at the local pub

CV said...

@72lb

If CV were 'green' (as you), this week, I'd save my courage for the local pub...

Instead, I'm inclined to put it on the line here in the Lloyd hour...

CV said...

Whaddaya think?

They're going to BREAK OUT the Euro here?

Puhleez...


They're holding it together with spit and tape going into the weekend...

Leftback said...

They will sell yen and dollars for Momo Monday, but it won't be a barn-burner. By Tuesday lunchtime they will be out of juice.

Take the money and run...

CV said...

@LB

I'm still on the 1153 train...

CV said...

Well...

Really I should say 1155.49...

But I say 1153 because I think Lloyds ALGOS have greasy fingers... (and will 'miss' 1154)

Leftback said...

LB thinks general apathy has set in.

A little buying of Ts today, esp the 2y. VIX did nothing, no fear.

CV said...

Apathy is for Johnny...

ALGOS are still interested in this last 40 minutes...

CV said...

Come on LB...

I'll betcha a PINT on it...

At the bar of choice (by Doctor Bruce), in Memphis...

We'll get him to pick up the tab...

CV says a DIP & RECOVERY (to 1154 & back) by the close...

If I lose. I'll just "double down" when I take USA vs. ENGLAND in the 1st round of WC...

karen said...

Financial stocks reaching for 3% gain on week
3:16 PM ET 3/26/10 | BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. financial stocks rose slightly Friday for the fifth straight day as bailed-out banks Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. continued their march higher and were among the market's most actively traded stocks.

That's your laugh for the day.

karen said...

the GS chart is rather cheery as well.

I-Man said...

Funny, K...

Something I've noticed watching GS trade on the intraday, is that when its being distributed, its done very deliberately...

Kinda looks like Greenspans rate hike schedule in reverse.

CV said...

@LB

Besides... If they DIDN'T do what I just outlined...

Then there would be NOTHING for Tyler & his crowd to bitch about (going into the weekend)...

So you KNOW it's bound to happen!

Leftback said...

HAPPINESS is a weekly profit, despite the meltdown in Treasuries.

CV said...

@karen

You know CV has been 'carping' about the GS chart for three days now...

But CV gives 'karen' full credit for pointing out the BAC chart yesterday...

Folks... This is like KRAKATOA...

Sailors reported FOR DAYS the 'strange bubblings' out of the sea prior to the eruption...

CV knows nothing... But he HAS READ ancient Sumatran "Book of Kings" scribe testimonies...

Just for fun, of course...

McFearless said...

look at the chart of natural gas over the last year, what a disaster.

Leftback said...

zzzzzzz

LB would rather take off early. Karen, do you need some company at the beach? LB could carry your clothes... assuming you are in a tiny bikini.

I-Man said...

You know it says something about social mood when the Guidestones make it on the front page of Google News...

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/03/22/georgia.mystery.monument/

CV said...

@McF (3:36)

That's a BEAUTIFUL SIGHT TO SEE FOR CV...

That's why I converted my truck to nat gas...

and put the farm generators on it...

I'm STORING IT at will at these prices...

Just like Lloyd (with his barrels in the basement)

Austin Powers said...

"Sailors reported FOR DAYS the 'strange bubblings' out of the sea prior to the eruption..."

Sounds like FAT BASTARD in the bathtub.

CV said...

@Fat Bastard - LOL

This is it...

This is where it's going to get fun right here...

Don't check out too early on a Friday...

I-Man said...

What a yawner...

Leftback said...

No Bond Report. Too boring.

Have a fantastic weekend, dudes.

AmenRa said...

Weekly 3LB reversal is now 1138.70 on the S&P. So what seems like a mild correction of 2.4% actually says something else.

karen said...

CV, love your krakatoa analogy.. you have such a way with words, and links. : )

Later all, gotta run!

CV said...

Welp...

They're going to have to do it on Monday morning...


That's about the dumbest ass... conviction-less, dickless, closing that I've ever seen...

Leftback said...

So boring today we couldn't even muster a YELLOW CARD, although CV and LB made weak efforts. We are going to have to do better next week.

Perhaps LB can muster a change of icons or something.....

CV said...

This is what sucks about this weekend...

Ok... here it is... You could SHORT the AH here...

(because SPX is going to print a 1153 handle on Monday)...

But it will happen so fast that, it won't even be worth your time...

It should have happened this afternoon in the last 40 minutes...

Instead - we retire on THIS CRAP... Grrrr!

CV said...

@LB

You'd better do that (ICON wise)...

CV has admitted he's GOING TO PUT A PHOTO COMPILATION OF HIMSELF & HIS FORMER 'CANINE COMPANION' (from the Italy days) INTO AMEN RA'S DAILY CANDLE WRAP...

a promise is a promise... however embarrassingly so!

I-Man said...

Well, dont expose yourself now... at least wait for the ladies to return.

Re: the close

Yeah, it happens.

CV said...

@I-Man

I know YO...

Monday we're going down to look at 1153/4...

Then, I don't mind DL's idea that we see 1180/3...


DL is a pretty smart cookie (although CV likes to ride him like a mule now and then)...

Not out of DISRESPECT (no way)... More out of RESPECT for his fortitude and endurance qualities...

I-Man said...

You think the Vols have a chance this afternoon?

I-Man said...

@ McF

Ho boy...

"Why Floating-Rate Funds Offer A Good Hedge for Investors"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36006285

Anonymous said...

I-man,

I'm rolling my eyes. I could see floating rate doing well though next few months, when the music stops though, in the spirit of the thread, holders won't be able to find a chair to sit in, they are just going to fall on their ass.

Johnny Retail said...

I-Man: I have a complete understanding of floating-rate funds.

BRIAN explained they will make me "bu-fu bucks, buckaroo" and TAWNY asked me "you're not AFRAID to invest with MEEEE, are yoooo, JOHNEEEEE?"

So I bought a shedload.

You Bears have no imagination, that's your problem. Bonds? Ha. Cash? Don't make me laugh. It's the New Millennium. The Indexes Will Lead.

Brian the Broker's Shapely Assistant Tawny said...

It is great that John has his own HOUR, you guys are kind.

Leftback said...

It's a Brave New World of Investment Tools.

AmenRa said...

Ya'll are kiling me LMAO.

I-Man said...

Gotta love it...

"JPMorgan, Lehman, UBS Named in Bid-Rigging Conspiracy (Update1)"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=anl9vTKXKYyk


Isnt everyone so happy about the TARP? See... these are just the kind of people that deserve taxpayer funded bailouts.

Leftback said...

BTW, the bond markets ARE open on Friday next week for NFP. So one might be thinking about that in the context of hedging exposure.

Next week, Magic Monday. Case-Shiller on Tuesday. ADP and crude stocks on Wednesday. Claims and ISM on Thursday. NFP on Friday.

Place your bets...
weak dollar M. Tu.
strong dollar W, Th seems a good one.

bonds/stocks - job growth is priced in. let's see what happens.

Leftback said...

Cheers, Ra, McF and I, the group was great this week, especially the ladies.... (winks)

I-Man said...

Alot of good FI stuff on ZH at the moment, Left.

Like this one:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/more-meets-bottom-line-are-banks-getting-crushed-due-negative-swap-spreads-and-190-trillion-

Leftback said...

One QUESTION:

DOES CV REALLY RIDE DL LIKE A MULE?
IS ED "TOO TALL" JONES TOO TALL...?

I-Man said...

But run along old man... wouldnt want to wear you out before your Friday evening festivities...

Leftback said...

Negative swap spreads are aberrant and abhorrent and a function of the Fed backstopping everything. They need to back away from the credit markets, like, NOW.

CV said...

@LB (5:11)

Is the pope a Catholic?
Does a bear s**T in the woods?


DOES THE POPE S*** in the woods?

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