Morning Audibles 3.24.10 - Anatomy of a P2

Don't worry if you're NOT a "chart-o-logist", CV is here to explain to you the basic definition of what the Elliott Wavers describe as a "P2"...

Here's what it looks like to EW'ers... (courtesy DANERIC)

Here's what it looks (and "feels") like to the rest of CRAMERICA (with appropriate "date" insignias)...

It all starts with a friendly bartender (preferably a Princeton or Harvard type) - March '09
Line 'em up - April '09
Don't FRUIT the damn things!
Cheers!
Nice first round there! You feelin' it? I'm feelin'it! - May/June '09
Let's take it another step! - July '09
Now that's what I'm talking about! (but skeptics appear - chick in green top) - August '09
You're doing it WRONG! - September '09
Uh oh! It appears I might have a drinking problem - October '09
OK then... FINE! I'll be analytical about this and set some 'targets' - November '09
Go for it... But just a friendly reminder from some RESPONSIBLE types - December '09
No heed? Well then, we wish you our best upon embarking on your quest - January '09
Last warning... But this is what happened to the LAST GUY... - January '10
Had too much? OK, we'll support you for a couple more rounds - April '10
Welcome to P3... Hope you enjoy your stay! - BEYOND
Just sleep it off... don't mind us! - FURTHER BEYOND
Your trusty dog Cramer, Obama, Bernanke, Rover said it would be OK? He'll explain it all to you when you eventually sober up. - Do DATES really matter at this point?


But who am I to stop you from your celebratory TOAST?


Gotta warn you though that this might happen!



But no matter what happens... You'll always have people like Peggy Joseph on your side because, HEY, you're going to pay for her gas and mortgage, right?






282 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 282   Newer›   Newest»
Prashant said...

EURUSD touching 1.3404.

mcHAPPY said...

It is not Friday but mcHAPPY has a music idea for you all - my first contribution. One of the all time great Canadian bands The Tragically Hip. Start with their newest album "We are the Same". It is great and a offers a little new direction for them. Next work your way backwards and keep in mind "In between Evolution" and "Music @ Work" are probably their two weakest albums minus a couple of great songs on the albums. Then when you get to 1989's Up to Here listen to "When the WEight Comes Down". That my friends is what happened to the EUR:USD index last night. The bounce off level of high 1.34's the last couple of weeks just had the weight come down.

mcHAPPY said...

Seems the storm has passed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4nQoiYaj2ag&pos=2

"While gloomy about the nation’s economic outlook, most Americans believe there is little chance in the next few years of another financial upheaval like the 2008 crisis that caused a near collapse of the U.S. banking industry. While 42 percent say they think such a scenario is at least fairly likely, 57 percent say it is only somewhat likely or not likely at all."

McFearless said...

King dollar....

McFearless said...

C,

A word to the wise for your blog.....don't ever feature a fox news sentiment poll that says Joe thinks there could be an economic collapse. I mean, a fox news poll.....really?

Daneric's site is falling apart.

AmenRa said...

Wow. I just saw that the EURUSD is 1.3351 on Bloomberg.

McFearless said...

Ra,

yes, this could be wave 5 in the dollar here.

Prashant said...

Was reading some place about the heavy Euro short positions in the COT data. With all the Euro bearish news floating around, very near term, it just might reverse on its way to max pain.

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aehqJbKbC56Y&pos=1

"Growing sales in the U.S. and abroad, and the need to replenish inventories are also helping companies such as Owens- Illinois, the largest U.S. maker of glass containers for food and beverages.

“We are starting to see the beginnings of a recovery, which we anticipate will extend through 2010 and 2011,” Chief Executive Officer Al Stroucken said in a presentation to investors on March 18. Stroucken said he expects “volumes to recover due to destocking having run its course.”

.... Ummmmm, probably because people are bagging their lunches for work, storing food when it goes on sale, and saving leftovers. Frugality is not the same as recovery.

Nic said...

Hello
Fitch downgraded Portugal which didn't help. Sterling is not doing well at all.
The cot slacked off a bit last week from a 4 weeks of extreme positioning so hopefully it keeps going. There was supposed to be an DNT option barrier at 1.34. Interesting EUR is up vs CHF/GBP so pretty broad based USD rally in FX land with commodity currencies doing best, even up vs the yen but yields are v. supportive.

AmenRa said...

Next fibo level for the EURUSD is 1.2935. May happen sooner than we think. 85.11 is the .1459 move for the DXY also.

call me ahab said...

great post!

from ZH regarding Portugal downgrade-

"Beatdown Of Euro Ensues"

very concise

call me ahab said...

also . . .regarding the last clip-

for us property owners w/o mortgages- where's our goddam goodies already???

are we undeserving?

Nic said...

Yeah a fib cluster there at 129.
Sometimes I look at that EURUSD monthly chart and wonder if its one big H&S and its going to parity. Would not be surprised.

call me ahab said...

"Bank of America will on Wednesday announce plans to start forgiving mortgage loan principal for troubled homeowners who owe more than 120 percent of their home's value or are battling ever-expanding "negative amortization" loans."

my take-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmwqnqL3Hbg

CV said...

@McF

I don't get your reference to a Fox news poll?

I don't put anything like that up...

CV said...

Selling in the long end...

McFearless said...

C,

No, not here, at Dan's. Just saying, your original material will always be better than a Fox News poll.

call me ahab said...

CV-

pretty sure b22 is referring to Daneric's site


also- we have this from Bloomberg-

"Most Americans Say They Missed 73% Rise in S&P 500 With Rebounding Economy"

wow- what a shocker- I guess low volume ramp ups don't include the schmoes

Nic said...

agree with McF

CV said...

@Nic

2 things...

I've been saying for weeks now that I thought the Euro was going to 129, by May 4th, as a first resting place...

After that (and some typical maneuvering), I think it eventually settles in near 117 within the end of this year...

and yes, eventually parity in coming years...

McFearless said...

folks,

I haven't watched any cnbc in the morning for about a month now, I turned on today. We are in full out bubble mode people, starbucks extending buyout and paying dividends, lol, ipo's gapping up to the moon at the open.

Maybe people aren't dancing on tables just yet though.....

CV said...

@McF

Oh, you had me worried there...

Sometimes when I'm compiling things for a morning thread, I'm doing it late at night after getting my brain fried all day by the markets and my body fried by the gym for two hours...

By the time I 'imbibe' a few, I hardly know what I've posted :-)...(so you scared me there)...

Luckily, mostly, I don't end up like those P2'ers, in the P3 condition...

Leftback said...

I don't get the selling of the long end, other than pre-auction, but hey, we are short with leverage so who's complaining? For once, LB has the right trades on. Maybe there is a dog....

72bat said...

@ ahab
"for us property owners w/o mortgages- where's our goddam goodies already???"
double damn ditto

Nic said...

Technically it looks like a bit of a range trade, back to 116 on 30yr. I don't know about bonds, just charts.

Nic said...

Are you packing your bags for california LB and off to googleland?

CV said...

@ahab

You're "package of goodies" (as a homeowner), will be as follows:

Your property tax bill will go up because besides having your taxpayer dollars swept away to pay the banks 100 cents on the dollar for their bad bet on Peggy's mortgage, the fact is, even though she now gets to live there "mortgage free" she still has a problem in that she can't pay the property taxes on it...

So you're will double...

Any questions?

karen said...

Nic! Love your foto! Sweet! And that euro move also. (LB is partial to blondes, btw. ) and congrats on TBT, LB.. excellent play.

Mannwich said...

@cv: Hilarious post. I'll just leave it at that.

CV said...

Ha!

Goldman does a 180 on it's Euro call...

AJC style, they got everyone to pile in long with a STOP LOSS at 1.34...

Now they're calling for 1.31, with the same trigger on the other side...

What a buncha chumps!

AmenRa said...

This is good: Ackman’s Greatest Short Ever Told Began With Handshake Refused

Mannwich said...

Won't this be good for exports for Eurozone? Maybe they want SOME devaluation for that reason? Everyone wanting to devalue currencies in race to the bottom to export to each other? Am I off base with this reasoning?

karen said...

gld looking shaky at best..

I-Man said...

I-Man is straight diggin the action this morning...

Dollar is the Boss. But UUP at 23.90 better hold firm. (Not sure what the corresponding level is in the DXY)

I'll be watching SPY, SPXU, and UUP today.

Have a little SPY action going on back a yard at Dread if anyone wants a look.

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/03/spy-15min-preopen-32410.html

Leftback said...

Morning, Karen.

LB should point out that he also adores brunettes, but thanks, we are patting ourselves on the back today after putting on a HUGE hedge and being net short the long end.

Some good calls all round yesterday, nice going, team. LB's next call is an equity sell off after this afternoon's auction. We should be, you know, out of our shorts by the time that rolls around.

Manny is right - Merkel wants the Euro lower - same game as China, they are big exporters and they are happy to drive the dollar up. So, it is a green light for Bucky. Clavadista d'oro dead ahead, short with an 1100 stop. Euro breaking below 1.30 in April.

karen said...

AR, you know I <3 Ackman, sighing.

Mannwich said...

What's on Mannwich's mind this morning - will TLT finally break ~88/89 levels on this leg down? This has been the area of support in the past? Will it hold?

Leftback said...

Nic, LB is absolutely addicted to the expense, dirt and grime of NYC, so living in a delightful area of N. Cal is out for the time being, unless he buys 5 acres of zinfandel one day.

Manny, TLT will not break below that level. Note that the short end is being taken out and whipped as we predicted. Gary Shilling and LB have the long end supported !!

CV said...

@Jeff@LB

X2 on the Euro... Frau Blucher (horse whinnying in background) will be most happy to see that...

Mannwich said...

Thank you for your support, lb. I shall be buying more TLT soon. That's everyone else's alert to fade me and buy TBT, BTW.

Leftback said...

Karen,

You heart Ackman and Einhorn, how can LB hope to compete?

CV said...

@LB

I got one thing to say (x3) about California...

TAXES, TAXES, TAXES

I-Man said...

Manny, I'm not concerned about TLT until its below 88.5, which is unlikely imo.

Leftback said...

Buy TLT calls at noon, or earlier.

I-Man said...

Watch that triangle on the TLT daily from early Feb to now...

That sucker is going to have some juice behind it when it breaks, either way.

call me ahab said...

alright-

gotta roll out-

all have a wun.der.bar day

I-Man said...

You too Captain.

Leftback said...

Will be gone most of the day. Tempted to take profits and call it.... see you all later..

I-Man said...

I dont know where you come up with all these pic's CV, but thats some funny shit.

Never been one for the body shots myself.

I-Man said...

Left, you've been a TBT trading pimp lately. Take that bag of cash and start plotting your next move.

mcHAPPY said...

When does the trap door open? This dollar move is making new highs. The longer the markets stay like this with the continued uptrend in the DXY, the more likely a crash is becoming to me. As usual, if anyone knows when, please let me know.

Leftback said...

I - We have had a hot hand in the FI space of late. Guys, the FX to watch is really USD:JPY - the yen is being hammered today. When that reverses, CARRY UNWIND will be the trigger for the TRAP DOOR. In LB's tiny little mind, DXY and JPY have to rally TOGETHER for a DOWN MOVE in stocks.

Anyone got yen charts?

I-Man said...

Betcha Nic do...

Mannwich said...

TLT back in the 90's. Bounced a bit "off lows" (my weak attempt at parroting CNBC) today.

Mannwich said...

We knew this, but this is why the banks are hoarding all those free Fed bucks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-america-start-offering-principal-reduction-forgiveness-delinquent-mortgages

CV said...

Some possible targets for downside moves (if, and when, this gets going)...

BASED ON 1174.72

.008 = 1165.32 (wouldn't be surprised to end the day around there)

.013 = 1159.45 (around last Friday's close - close there this week and the WEEKLY candle would look like a "shooting star")

.021 = 1150.05 (CV pulls out "The Fonz" shark jumping indicator - now "the shark" is a right shoulder - do sharks have shoulders?)

.034 = 1134.78 (Now you're looking at an H&S going back to the big move on Friday, March 5 - It was the first 'basing' level before closing slightly higher)... CV thinks this level MUST be tested... It was a 13:1 up day... All such moves in '09 were eventually backtested, and passed... This will be a KEY area - IMO... If the markets break down from here, selling might be fast... It could rally back, but if we break below here - IMO - we go down to visit the 200MA zone...

.055 = 1110.11 (This would look scary if it happened before the end of March - because the ENTIRE MONTHLY CANDLE FOR MARCH would look like a "shooting star")

.09 = 1068.99 (This would serve several purposes as well - It would "cover" the chart gap around 1076 - and it would likely intersect the 200MA upon arrival, or thereabouts)... .09 was the 'depth' of the late January selloff that took the S&P down to 1044... This would be somewhat of a 'mirror' of that... If P3 has started, that might be the end of a first wave... I'd probably expect a bounce back up to 1134 again... If the market kept chugging up from there, then we might as all just book the 1200's...

JMHO

72bat said...

@ lb -
missed your chance on this one @
http://www.norcalvineyards.com/inventory.html
Truly Magnificent Mendocino Appellation
9 acres Zinfandel
5 Bedrooms / 5 Bathroom / 7,500 sq. ft.
3.5 acre foot pond
Fitness room / Detached studio / Music Studio
Court Yard / 50 Fruit Trees / Raised Garden
Office
Offered at $1,950,000
SOLD! (probably sold for much less)

CV said...

@72bat

See... It's got a "pool" and a "pond"...

The "pond" would be good for you :-)

Mannwich said...

When was our last real big down day? 6-8 weeks ago? I can't even remember at this point.

Nic said...

LB is correct re yen & jpy I think.
sorry was away ..
USDJPY is at the top of the weekly downtrending channel now but with repatriation flows set to continue this week and a big IPO flow we could be about to turn south. definately one I watch tho. will post any chart you want.

Nic said...

0.92 is the level to watch USDJPY

karen said...

bat, thanks for the great web-site.. norcalvineyards.com. i loved the appellation maps and exposure tabs.. very helpful and interesting! can't wait to get back up there!

CV said...

@72bat@karen

The REALLY GREAT NEWS is that if you buy a large vineyard up there, it should be easy to find some help to 'work it' for you...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36012999/ns/us_news-crime_and_courts

karen said...

More Chinese Food from NLY.

72bat said...

k -
still regret not taking the ol' farmer's offer of 18 acres of sonoma ridgetop overlooking glen ellen & jack lonodn ranch for just $900/acre

72bat said...

@ cv
"Nearly 11 percent of the state budget goes to prisons. Officials estimate the measures will save the state about $500 million its first full year"
see, arnold's $200 million home buyer's subsidy proposal will be paid out of these savings.
wonder if the subsidy will be available to buyers of vineyard homes?

karen said...

can i give a cheer for the one trade? i don't even care about the yen.. i just wanna see that dollar fatten..

Nic said...

yeay! me too

I-Man said...

Its getting to the point that bulls need to put up or shut up.

If no buyers come in to defend the 116.60 - 116.30 range on SPY, then its pretty certain that we go back to test the breakout.

The uptrend off the 2/5 low is coming in at about 116 at the moment.

Monday's low, 115.24.

Somethings gotta give.

AmenRa said...

180 million internet subscribers in China all stood up together and said "I AM BAIDU!!!" :-)

Leftback said...

LB would be jumping on that 9 acres of Zin - but after the P3 cuts those prices in half, baby.... maybe add a few hops for the I-Man.

Nic, please feel free to post up the yen charts. Agree that the repatriation into end of March is not complete.

Between Nic's barnet and karen's gams, traders' heads must be spinning today. Almost time for LB to take his shorts off (in the fixed income area).

CV said...

@karen

I wonder how one says "butt out" in Chinese?

CV said...

@I-Man

Did you read my (10:43)? There are some levels there... explained...

Leftback said...

CV,

Arrived late today, just read the post. It's clear the C-Man has had a few nights on the tiles....

According to LB's latest model, the selling in stocks gets serious this afternoon.

Nic said...

My favourite risk meter AUDUSD piercing daily trendline support says more down today, I think.

That Russel Crowe movie, "a Good Year" makes you want to go out and buy a vineyard ... really good film

I-Man said...

C-

Of course mi breddah... and they're money.

UUP over 24...

Praise Jah.

I-Man said...

Its so fun watching the GLD crowd squirm...

Leftback said...

Heh heh.... the bugs get so irritable...

I-Man said...

But it'll be more fun at 102... should we tell them?

Nah... Let em sweat it out.

CV said...

@Nic

CV has a mini "experimental" vineyard started at the farm... Not much, just a starter kit...

CV said...

@I-Man

Yeah, the last wave up on bucky was good for about 4-5 trading weeks...

Apply "one trade" to that takes you through the last weeks of April...

I don't know if you remember, I gotta go dig it up, but I published here on this blog my idea that GLD would go down and test that 100 level right around (April 20th - if I remember), was my prediction...

I'll tell you something though... Many who "shorted" GLD at 119 might exit those shorts around the 100 level...

I'd expect a bounce there (at least for a bit)...

Leftback said...

DXY 83 after the April 2 jobs number. That's the CALL.

C, you are a renaissance man. Not surprising after Umbria.
LB is a fan of Barbera and Primitivo as well as Sangiovese.

I-Man said...

I can get down with that scenario...

There's alot of folks that still want to build a position in gold, through GLD, (however dumb that is...) and I wouldnt want to be caught in the way of a goldbug hyperinflationista and their "jones".

I-Man said...

CV is THE renaissance man.

CV said...

@I-Man

Here it is... I FOUND IT... It was on "The Sword of Damocles" day...

---

CV said...
@karen

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm just an OBSERVER on this gold thing...

It just seems like the PERFECT SCENARIO would be for gold to break $1000 (just for a day)... Shorts cover, chicken longs capitulate at the worst moment...

I've even set a DATE for it... April 20th :-)

February 17, 2010 10:59 AM

Nic said...

Nice CV!!

USDJPY, at weekly trendline resistance and 92.16 key support/resistance level. I don't expect it to break this week and a turn down here is more likely. Some hedge fund bought 3yards of USD vs JPY and goosed it up today.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_D1n1atSWw4c/S6oz7DjypWI/AAAAAAAAA8s/QKihDeh4e4M/s1600/usdjpy+weekly.gif

CV said...

@LB

All great (esp the Sangiovese)...

I'm especially fond of the Lungarotti Rubesco...

Which basically tells you, you don't have to pay a lot of money for REALLY GOOD WINE if you know where to look...

Nic said...

I don't see how gold can be an inflation hedge AND a deflation hedge ... perhaps someone brighter can explain

72bat said...

@ cv
what exposure do you have?
the vineyard that is, on the farm.
what terroir?

karen said...

This is great at TBP. (Grant's problem is that as a goldbug, he can't abide usd strength.)

Pellegrini said, “long term, I don’t want to own USD-denominated debt, or US equities.” In a throw away line, he said “Short term, I think the market crashes.” It was almost an aside.

Jim Grant and David Rosenberg debated Treasuries. Jim is very bearish on the dollar, and there for does not like Treasuries here. David was the bond bull. Our crowd of admittedly bearish attendees (though i would not describe the conference attendees that way) thought David’s argument was more compelling in terms of mustering facts to back it.

Rosenberg officially, I guess, “won” the debate, based on a count of hands before and after. John Dizard of the FT moderated, fyi.

I-Man said...

CV when I finally make my comeup and head over to Italy, I'm booking you as my guide.

Maybe you can show me that catacomb where you have all your gold stashed...

Nic said...

I like a really nice rioja, and Spanish real estates going to be really cheap soon

Leftback said...

OK. That was a fun trade, we are out. Making $ rules !!

Expecting Treasury strength and equity weakness this afternoon after the 5y auction. Be back after 2pm to check it out.

Go get em, team.

CV said...

@I-Man (11:49)

In fact...

As you know, the last time I made a physical purchase of gold was back in 2004...

But I have been pulling dollars out of the bank since last summer... I'm thinking I might just buy a little (just a VERY LITTLE), more physical with a few of those dollars if I see Marc Fabers magic bottom...

Leftback said...

Ah, the tempranillo... with toasty oak.... but I digress....

later.

CV said...

@Nic (11:55)

LOL - That reminds me, when I was 'cashing out' in Umbria back in 2006, there was this very wealthy Italian real estate speculator who was trying to interest me in a RE development he was doing in the Valencia area...

I was like YGBOOYFM! (you gotta be out of...fill in the rest)...

I wonder if he's still solvent?

CV said...

and yes you read that correctly... The Italian guy was doing Spanish real estate...

Nic said...

HAHA wasn't EVERYONE doing spanish real estate!
There is a good financial blog I read called Ibex salad and the guy has an olive farm, some days Im quite jealous.

AmenRa said...

EURJPY 1.228 Arrgghhhh!!!

CV said...

@72bat

You have to understand that I KNOW NOTHING about vineyards or growing grapes...

I just went to a local vineyard (Linganore, in MD), and got started from growing from some of their plants...(because the climate & terrain are similar)

It's really not that hard to grow anything if you put your mind to it... I'm adding size (more rows plants & supporting infrastructure) to it as it grows... If it all dies out, it dies out... But it cost me NOTHING (save for a little muscle and man-hours of work to prepare the terrain)...

This is only my second season, so I'm trying to be prepared for temperature shocks and keeping the soil and plants safe from frost by building a heating system...

That's why it's all so 'small' at this point because I don't want stupid errors to cost me BIG TIME...

Once I get the hang of it, I'll start building it up... I expect the process to take a couple of years before I even produce a bottle of wine out of it...

But the kind I'm going for is a very simple table wine... Similar to:

WHITE RAVEN: 1% residual sugar
ESTATE BOTTLED. Produced as a Pinot Grigio, this wine is a soft, crisp, fruity, off dry dinner wine

This, or a Reisling, are the basic types that can handle the climate of the area...

Nic said...

what state do you live in CV?

CV said...

@Nic

2 states...

Maryland & West Virginia... (The farm is in WVA)

Nic said...

lovely

CV said...

Hey, I just came across something cool...

A website that you can go to to find SPEED TRAPS in your local area...

http://www.speedtrap.org/speedtraps/stetlist.asp

I-Man said...

Ahh... the Shenandoah... I and I homeland.

DL said...

CV @ 12:23

Yeah, Mish had that posted a few months ago.

Around the time that he received his own speeding ticket.

CV said...

@Nic

At my place in Umbria, I had olive trees on my property and used to harvest them to get my own olive oil pressed...

I didn't have enough on MY OWN trees for very much, but the larger property where my farmhouse was on had over 3,000 olive trees (and the place wasn't maintained for a few years as ownership kept changing hands...

So I had the run of the place and could harvest as much as I wanted...

Wild asparagus, mushrooms, truffles, you name it!

CV said...

@DL

Thanks DL, you're a real 'charmer' :-)

Nic said...

sounds amazing!

I-Man said...

I here we can grow pretty nice grapes up here in the PNW, but as Left mentioned, I-Man is more fond of the hops.

A bit closer to one of my areas of botanical expertise...

DL said...

Yes, CV is an amazing guy (regardless of which "state" he may be in).

CV said...

@Nic

It really was (Umbria)... Here is a photo of the (larger) property...

http://www.villacapanne.com/content/files/Gardens/Antognolla.jpg

It was VERY TOUGH to leave... But I started to see the writing on the wall in terms of larger macro issues and figured I'd better bundle up and repatriate, or I might not have the opportunity again...

CV said...

See all those olive trees on the hill up towards the castle?

CV had FULL PICKENS of those!

I-Man said...

Shit looks like Zion, yo.

DL said...

I-Man @ 12:31

And I bet you know a thing or two about how to grow plants that produce the following:

(−)-(6aR,10aR)-6,6,9-trimethyl-3-pentyl-6a,7,8,10a-tetrahydro-6H-benzo[c]chromen-1-ol

Nic said...

Wow its so beautiful. I would have been very sad to leave.

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiNflq9wmDbY&pos=3

Quick, go buy bank stocks for the long term as they will quadruple by 2012.

Nic said...

Is I-man Irie-Man?

Mannwich said...

TLT circling the drain slowly.....

CV said...

@I-Man

I mostly just played golf all the time...

Practically a whole damn 18 hole Robert Trent Jones course all to myself...

I even 'built' some of it... RTJ's head 'earth mover' (the guy who sculpts the holes with a Caterpillar) was a Canadian guy named Shawn... Took him about two months (for each 9), to scrape out the earth, mold it, and then put the top layer of dirt back on... I used to drink wine with the guy at the end of the day and he let me work the CAT sometimes...

He was working TOTALLY alone on the project... Things are different in Italy... That dude made some serious bucks too... He'd get paid about $20,000 a job, so the sooner he finished, the sooner he got paid... He'd be working clear into the nights sometimes with the headlights on...

I-Man said...

LOL...

C, those look like some nice flowers... what are they? ;)

I am truly in awe of how beautiful that photo is... what a pastoral landscape!

Nic,

The I is just symbolic of the larger unity of creation... but yes, it is also, most irie.

Irie Ites.

I-Man said...

Wonder how that auction is coming along...

Left?

CV said...

@I-Man

I don't which specific flowers you're talking about, but there are many different basic rustic wildflowers...

Mostly 'herb' types like rosemary & lavendar and such... But one of my favorites was this spiky bush called a 'ginestra'... They grew all over the friggin place... In june the whole hills would turn yellow when the flower blossoms came out... It was amazing...

http://www.ancorainviaggio.it/ginestra.jpg

CV said...

I've never seen a ginestra anywhere else but Italy...

72bat said...

@ i-man
"what a pastoral landscape!"
gorgeous yes, but somehow don't think the sheeple are allowed to graze there on the rtj pasture

I-Man said...

You're funny, CV...

Those aint the kind of "flowers" I-Man was referencing. (nudge, nudge, wink, wink...)

I-Man said...

@ 72

lol... yeah, I know...
I was referring to the "background"...

Looks like a nice course though.

I-Man said...

Will the hammer fall? Or are there more tricks up the sleeve today?

72bat said...

@ cv
ginestra = spanish broom
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Broom

72bat said...

ginestra = spanish broom?

CV said...

@72bat

I wouldn't doubt that they were in Spain as well because the latitudes are equivalent...

72bat said...

and california (thot it looked familiar)
http://luirig.altervista.org/schedeit/pz/spartium_junceum.htm

DL said...

CV,

Your going to have to change the heading of this site to:

"commentary on horticulture and capital markets"

Mannwich said...

Weak treasury auction today? What say ye, leftback?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/weak-5-year-auction-shakes-treasury-complex-enormous-tail-indirects-drop-bid-cover-weakest-s

CV said...

@DL

I'm just preparing for the moment that the CAPITAL MARKETS, are, in fact, put asunder...

At that point, all that will be left will be horticulture...

That oughta be about 2014, by YOUR calculations, right?

Just after that quick trip to 1300? Seems like a lotta worryin' to do for a stinkin 11%

DL said...

CV,

The trip to 1300 won't be that quick, but I think we'll get there before the end of 2011.

As for the "stinkin' 11%"....LEVERAGE.

CV said...

@Jeff (1:26)

That's the bond markets vote on OBAMACARE... Seems the only one 'buying' it is Bernanke (because he'll get 'fired' if he doesn't)...

karen said...

my western garden book has it listed as G. hispanica; but there are many varieties of "Genista."

my but this market is tiring and trying.. sighing not in pleasure.

CV said...

@DL

Please don't tell me you're applying LEVERAGE up here in nose bleed territory...

Actually, PLEASE DO... (As that sort of behavior pretty much is the type that will justify the last couple of slides above)...

...and to think, one could have just stopped after the first few slides...

Mannwich said...

Is it "normal" for a market to just stay pinned to such a tight range day after day after day? Maybe the plan is to bore all the shorts to death (so that they go do something else with their time) and just pump this thing slowly to infinity?

Mannwich said...

Is this just a by-product of low (or no) volume every day?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=auS83g4GxH4E

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Britain might not face as “monumental” a situation as people assume if the nation were to lose its top AAA credit rating, former Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said.

“We have to be concerned about that, but no one has well- enumerated what it would actually mean if we did,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday. “I’m not so sure it would actually be quite as monumental.”

...Nah, Britain losing AAA status wouldn't amount to much...nope. By the way, when I was a kid, one pound was about 5 bucks.....

DL said...

"..this market is tiring and trying"

What do they say...

"80% of the market moves occur in 20% of the time"

McFearless said...

Whats up all, I've been talking to the now sophisticated Johnathan all morning.

Couple things, first I didn't see mentioned as I skimmed comments:

How about for dollar sentiment, I'll agree, sentiment was spooky a few weeks back w/91% dollar bulls on DSI vs. the 3% bulls on the dollar last year. Anyway, I think it says a lot about dollar sentiment that Greece and Portugal.

Nic said:

"I don't see how gold can be an inflation hedge AND a deflation hedge ... perhaps someone brighter can explain"

lol, I'm not brighter, but it doesn't matter as there is nothing to explain, how many times did people spout this nonsense last year: gold goes up during inflation and "holds up" during deflation.

Both statements are actually not *entirely true and therefore shouldn't be used for a thesis, but more important, the statement is so dumb because it basically says gold can't go down!

I remember this other thing that couldn't go down, where I come from they called it real estate....

McFearless said...

Manny,

A tight range day after day?

What do you mean?

We've had a roughly 60% move over the last 12 months, more than a 10% move in the last month and a half. I know that's not 08/09 action, but still pretty good for trades right?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=arV3UB4Bj868

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Twelve U.S. cities, including Boulder, Colorado, and Providence, Rhode Island, are showing extended declines in housing values, reversing signs of a sustained recovery last year, according to Zillow.com.

The number of markets in a “double dip” jumped in January from five in December, data released today by Seattle-based Zillow show. The real estate information provider defines a double dip as five consecutive price drops after at least five straight monthly increases. The gains must be preceded by a period where values fell in at least 10 of 12 months.

DL said...

McFearless,

Manny wants non-stop entertainment.

Mannwich said...

@ben: Let me clarify - - we haven't seen many intra-day reversals in a long time. At least none that I can remember. The market just seems to go to a spot and stay there all day and then the usual obligatory ramp up over the final 1-2 hours sometimes happens. That's what I meant, but yes, you're right. It has been just about straight up for the most part, but I'm talking intra-day. In the past, we'd get a few reversals (sell-offs). Not anymore. At least not for 6-8 weeks now.

CV said...

@Jeff

MAX PAIN for SPY contracts at the end of month is 115 (implying 1150)...

At the same time you have quarterly "window dressing", and various other FREE MONEY mechanisms that can help hold it up without a big selloff occurring...

My sense is that we will actually get a correction... Perhaps even down near 1065 (or, as deep as the January move)...

Then we'll see...

I think the dollar moving today was a signal of what's to come (ie correction)... But the MEAT of that correction may be coming AFTER next Wednesday...

IMHO

DL said...

CV @ 1:38

Each of the last several days I've posted that a 5-10% correction will be here within two weeks or so.

I'm in cash, and I have a limit order to short ESMO if it gets to 1170.5

Mannwich said...

@ben: I'm not really a trader like you guys though. I don't want to trade in and out all the time. That's the issue for me. And I don't want to be going significantly long much of anything now, especially equities.

CV said...

@DL

I'm playing it exactly as outlined at (10:43)...

With special emphasis on the behavior at the 1134 level...

I'm already short, but slightly red... Anything UNDER 1150 gets me green again...

DL said...

Mannwich,

And if things get really boring, you can always take the dog for a walk, right?

McFearless said...

Manny,

gotcha, and yeah, I remember those days back in sept/oct 08, near 1,000 point swings in a day. Wild.

Mannwich said...

@DL: There you go. In fact, I'm about to bail for some errands, a workout and my quarterly "labs" (blood drawing). Fun stuff, except for the last thing. Will walk the crazy mutt later this evening since it stays light out so late. Have a good afternoon all.

McFearless said...

Manny,

You know my take man, nothing wrong with staying safe and sitting it out.

CV said...

@McF

Those days will be revisited, in due time...

Mannwich said...

@ben: Not expecting those kinds of intra-day swings but how about any swings at all? We just haven't seen them in quite a while.

Mannwich said...

@ben: That's what I'm mostly doing but am itching to get into the action somewhere. Am a bit paralyzed right now though.

DL said...

Mannwich,

Wait for the correction.

Then decide.

Mannwich said...

@DL: That's what I'm doing. It's killing me though. The boredom, that is.

DL said...

Buy a single share of SDS.

CV said...

@Jeff

here's a nice hobby that might cure your boredom...

http://www.dyslexia-inst.org.uk/cartoons/juggling.gif

CV said...

The 'net effect' is about the same as owning shares of any 2x short etf...

Mannwich said...

@DL: It's getting cheap enough.

CV said...

@Manny

When it gets to ZERO, they'll do a stock split...

So you'll have two for the price of none!

McFearless said...

Manny,

I'm still a believer in a P3 type scenario, the swings we saw in 08 will be nothing compared to something like that, we'll be begging for tight range bound days then.

I'm not doing much for this pullback since I already have shorts, dollar and silver trade I'll be looking to make adds to though. Other than that, unless there are five waves down on this dip, I will buy longs.

McFearless said...

Not many things bother me much in the way of bailouts because I expect them, but this prin. reduction thing really chaps my ass to the extreme if I'm being real about it.

DL said...

McFearless,

If we do get a year in which the swings are even worse than those in 2008, it would probably be best for me to sit it out most of time. When the S&P500 moves 8% in a single day (which it did a couple of times), a person has to watch his position every nanosecond.

Leftback said...

Hi gang,

Man. That was a weak auction. It's likely the 7y demand will be stronger tomorrow. A good thing we made money this morning.

Inclined to agree with Nic that this is a range trade and we are right now at the very top of that range in yields again. It will break one day, but not soon. Remember that higher long end yields spell doom for mortgages, ARMs, therefore all of housing and by extension CRE and banks. If we see a 5% 10y, then the interest rate swaps alone would bring down half of the Street.

I-Man said...

I really hope to get going on prop trading SPX futures before P3 hits...

2+% intraday swings = bank

karen said...

what next? would this cause a mark to market? or further market to fantasy? 2:17 PM ET 3/24/10 | WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)

- With millions of foreclosures expected over the next five years, a group of twenty-seven Democrats on Wednesday sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urging him to establish a new federal entity to purchase distressed mortgages at auction and modify them for troubled homeowners. "The government's failure to take effective actions to manage the avalanche of home foreclosures is one of the great public policy failings of our time," the lawmakers wrote in the letter. The group, including Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., argue that the Treasury could use funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, to fund the program that they believe could be modeled after the Depression-era Home Owners Loan Corporation. They argue that an existing Obama program to modify mortgages isn't working.

McFearless said...

DL,

I'm hoping by the time we get to what I'm talking about I'll have very little shorts and will be interested in accumulating bullion.

I've said it before, but if there is a P3, lots of shorts are never going to get paid.

DL said...

I-Man @ 2:24

There are brokers that let you trade stocks and futures in the same account. No reason to wait.

McFearless said...

LB,

I heard Faber say the words 10% on the 10 year in an interview recently!

I think the bond market is going to ruin all the Wizards plans.

Leftback said...

They should leave the effing housing market alone and let it fall.

Leftback said...

10% on the 10y would be Armageddon with banks positioned as now. Today is just another hiccup on the way to deflation.

DL said...

McF,

"lots of shorts are never going to get paid"

Not sure what you're getting at. If the brokerage account is insured (to $500K or whatever), why would people not get "paid"...?

Nic said...

What is going on with bonds LB???
Yields are what is pushing up USDJPY and the dollar together more than anything. 2yr yield near 2010 high at 1.10??

Problem with flat indices or small intraday pullbacks is it stops the market becoming technically oversold by whatever indicator Johnny uses (RSI or stochastics or other oscillators) so the bigger daily correction is delayed and delayed ...

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=askizRCWdj2Q

“The Fed has to be ready to take away the punch bowl when it’s necessary,” Yellen told reporters after the speech. “When the time has come, am I going to support raising interest rates? You bet. I don’t want to see inflation pick up.”


As I'm sure most of you are aware, the FED's stats for inflation do not include food or energy.

Do they not remember early 2000's with 1% interest rates and the long term consequences it created? What is 0% and QE going to do? Idiots.

DL said...

McF @ 2:29

If, in the year 1971, you had told someone that the yield on the 10-year would get to 13% within ten years, they'd tell you that you're nuts.

Mannwich said...

@McHappy: Reading between the lines of Yellen's piece yesterday is that we may not see rates raised for another 2-3 years (or more). Is that even possible?

Nic said...

The surprise is Yellen. Those are very hawkish remarks for her.

McFearless said...

DL,

"If the brokerage account is insured"


Are you serious?

And SIPC provides more than $500k, but that's about as good as a promise as the one Treasury makes....

I'm not saying you'll never ever be paid, but it may not be what you are actually due, and it could be tied up for years.

McFearless said...

DL,

Well, that's true, but anyone looking at the bond market today and drawing conclusions that it's the 70's isn't looking at the same bond market that I am.

I think Faber may have even coughed up a 20%.

As for when the Fed will raise rates, again, just watch the bond market, that's all they are going to do, or you could believe all the gabbing they do about what they need to "see" before they raise rates.

We've provided the chart of this before.

I-Man said...

@ DL

You know I'm broke. I havent made a trade since I blew up at Jan opex, so my stock and ETF career is for intents and purposes, over.

Unless of course you wanna stake me up :)

Re: SPX futes, I'm talking professionally, holmes... I-Man has come to the conclusion that he is a stud in the intraday timeframe, and that anything longer than that turns to shit. I also know I need coaching, and the discipline that a state of the art risk mgmt program can provide. Just gotta tie some loose ends up, and its done... I and I will be leaving this babylon.

DL said...

McF @ 2:36

If they can cough up $700B to bail out a few banks, they can cough up enough to pay out the insurance on some brokerage accounts.

(If all else fails, print it).

McFearless said...

I'd also think it's a little dumb for any of us to think that in a P3 short sellers aren't going to be blamed, attacked, banned, etc.

DL said...

I @ 2:39

Gottit.

mcHAPPY said...

What to do about oil? 7.25 million barrel rise in BOTH API and EIA combined with an strong increase in USD. I guess the only ingredient we are missing is for the yen to pick its sorry ass up off the mat.

Leftback said...

LB is watching this with interest, so to speak. LB has been warning people off the front end for weeks and weeks. The flattener is the expansionary recovery trade - of course if we are Japan this is a head fake. The Fedspeak is nonsense, first they are "lovey-dovey" then they get all "talk the hawk" on us. Ignore it and watch the action.

LB is glad to have mitigated the damage to his portfolio today more by luck than design. Discussion at Macro Man raises the idea that a +250K NFP is being priced into equities and Treasuries here. So we may see a Sell The News when that rolls around. This move is probably largely over, he said looking over his shoulder.

Hope I didn't burn anyone on TLT calls ! My first shocker.... I know you never listen to me anyway...

McFearless said...

DL,

Understanding what banks actually do with money, and how much actual money there really is, I see "insurances" like SIPC, FDIC for what they are.

If you *think* it's probably safe, or the govt will print it out to make you whole, then more power to you. I would rather know for sure.

Also, has the market rally lasted so long that you are going to refer to TARP as bailing out a few banks? Just like that eh? That simple?

Sorry, I think the problem was just a wee bit larger than that.

McFearless said...

@I-man,

You have my e-mail, If/when you go prop I'd be very interested to learn what you are doing. I explored that about a year ago but I had a chat with AT about it and he had me wondering why I'd sell my current book to do it.

I have a hard time thinking I'll be able to stay sane speaking with Johnathan for another 25 years.

karen said...

i'm showing a bizarre volume spike in GS at 2:00

Leftback said...

The 10y yield kissed 3.85% today which is the support level at the bottom of a trading channel that has been in place since August.

Remember that this action is colored by Bernanke puts, bailouts and vanishing spreads. This ain't normal.

Nic said...

McHappy I think the "peak oil" stories last week about how the oil producing states have overstated reserves and peak oil is coming sooner than we think are supporting it.

DL said...

McF,

You've got to put your money somewhere.

Under the mattress?

Lord Blankfiend said...

i'm showing a bizarre volume spike in GS at 2:00

he he he

I-Man said...

@ K, 2:51

Hmmm... not seeing that from my perch... just chump change at 2pm.

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 282   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.