AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Bearish short day (heavy selling also). Not a shooting star because it needed to gap higher from a long day. Closed lower and confirmed bearish harami. No daily 3LB changes. Only 4 more days of QE!!! (and I think the market is starting to realize this)



DXY
Bullish short day. Gann 2x1 level is history. Uptrend back in vogue. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 80.72. Go Bucky! Go Bucky! It's your birthday! It's your birthday! Drop it like it's hot!



VIX
Bullish LONG day. Tested the fibo ext of 61.8% (support) and passed. Then went and tested the 50% fibo ext and passed. Midpoint now above 10 SMA. New high on daily 3LB with reversal still 16.28.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Still below the 89, 55, 21 and 10 SMA's. Held the 144 SMA. Couldn't close above the Gann 4x1. No daily 3LB changes.



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Not an inverted hammer because of too much lower shadow. Still searching for a bottom (but it ain't over yet IMO). Midpoint is way below the 10 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is coming soon (where's that sound effect for Jason in Friday the 13th). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3536.



10YR BOND
Bullish long day (again). Trading above weekly 3LB reversal price of 38.62. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 35.95. Timmy thought it was a nightmare but realized he was wide awake.



BAC
Doji day. An evening star wants to go supernova. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 17.12.

23 comments:

I-Man said...

Get that dirt off yo shoulder Bucky!!!

Anonymous said...

BTW

Basketball again tonight. Cornell playing 40 minutes from home should give them the best game of the night.

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY is sensing a change in rhetoric. Not just talk of ending purchases, but selling 'assets' - the term 'assets' is used very loosely in this context.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aVOcOa.mtghQ

mcHAPPY said...

mcHAPPY does not think 1200 will be reached this go around. Bucky is strengthening like a mo'fo'yo. Obviously the dollar strength is not reflected in equity and commodity prices. This is the scenario I envision (full disclosure: I am talking out of my ass and my breath is surprisingly fresh):

DXY is on the uptrend to 83-84 range to end wave 1.
S&P sells off to 1045 range.
DXY corrects down to very low 80 or very high 78/79.
S&P rebounds as DXY falls taking out 1200.
Women dance on tables at the bars AND at the convents and Johnny breaks out the $100 bill for a few lines at Brian's summer kick off BBQ - that my friends is the end of P2 in late June/July.
DXY starts a major rally that no one notices until 83/84 and panic ensues.
P3 has arrived.

QQQQ said...

AmenRa... Thx for the updates, always try to find time in my day to look at the charts/comments :)

mcHAPPY said...

Lara at Forex Info USA has a video up on USD:JPY EW analysis.

call me ahab said...

wow-

what a fucking show!

the market is mainly manic but sometimes the depressive part kicks in-

Phil Town opined that the DJIA could hit 14,000 before it crashes- saying that America has been in a period of booms and busts for the last decade-

sounds like an economy gone off the fucking rails to me

McFearless said...

some of you stick readers, take a look at the daily of HYG:LQD

interesting....

call me ahab said...

Hells yeah-

"Record-low interest rates are still needed to rev up the economic recovery, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Thursday." Yahoo Finance

like the oldest song and dance in the books- he may want to add that creation of money at no cost is the other important feature to modern American economics

McFearless said...

ahab,

the wizard just means to say that people need to borrow.

I-Man said...

I knew Butler would be dangerous... schucks.

I-Man said...

I forgot that 45 seconds is an eternity in college basketball... maybe cuse will pull it out... doubtful.

call me ahab said...

b22-

borrowing is cool- as long as it is for business investment- plants and equipment-

laptops and flat screens- not so much

call me ahab said...

wow-

this shit is becoming staggering- lenders have a contract with the borrowers- but we have this-

"The White House plans to announce on Friday it will require lenders to lower the mortgage payments of some unemployed workers and encourage lenders to knock off some principal debt of homeowners who owe more than their home is worth, sources familiar with the plan said on Thursday."

fucking unbelievable- but here's why the desperation-

"The plan also aims to increase the Federal Housing Administration efforts to keep people in their homes."

i.e.- foreclosures not allowed- homeowners a minor concern- the banks another story

and this-

"The new efforts include at least three and at most six months of temporary assistance for jobless workers and incentives for mortgage servicers to write down part of the principal balance, sources said."

that is where Freddie and Fannie come in

Anonymous said...

Administration to expand mortgage-altering effort -marketwatch.com.

Might as well write off the principle and give everyone in U.S. one free home. Be done with it.

Use the saved money to go shopping.

McFearless said...

lot of volume today, seems we are set up for a little whoosh down, and then the buy the dips voices will start.

call me ahab said...

b22 @ 9:49

sarcasm??? Or- are you making the observation that- that will be the reaction?

BuffaloT said...

When will this end. I swear, we have done the dra , the flop, and now the river. Everybody knows anyone sitting at this table is all in with nothing but junk off-suit crap. Just show the hands, go bust, and start over. Please for the love of God just show the hands and get it over with.

Oh yeah and screw the Cuse, done in all pools now.

AmenRa said...

McF

Didn't look at the ratio but HYG is trending up on the weekly 3LB and LQD reversed up last week. Why do I feel that GDP will be manipulated higher just to get the S&P above 1200.

Robust Fractal said...

Robust Fractal said...

from the last thread:

not very flattering!: Toss a coin and you can match most of the "best and brightest."(according to this site).

www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus

There is a decade breakdown (2000's) of R.P. as well as others, in fairness the authors ignore RP bullish calls in the early 80's.

Cheers

Nic said...

Karen did you see this -
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2010/03/jim-realtor-video.html

karen said...

Nic! hadn't seen that clip but i <3 Jim the Realtor! Normally, I've watched him touring/critiquing my old stomping grounds in north san diego county via calculatedrisk.com.. He is always spot on.. and RE is a particular focus of mine.. thanks for the link!!

Nic said...

You <3 him? He is actually easier on the eye than I expected with that monotone voice - his picture http://www.bubbleinfo.com/

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