AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Bearish harami day. Closed back below fibo ext of 1172.08. No daily 3LB changes. Only 5 more days of QE!!!




DXY
Bullish LONG day (I did say long, right?). Tested Gann 2x1 and passed (after 3 tries). Uptrend may be back (midpoint is still above 10 SMA). New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 79.75.



VIX
Bullish long day. Closed back above the fibo ext of 61.8% (support). Midpoint still below 10 SMA. Daily 3LB reversal up with reversal now 16.28.



GOLD
Bearish long day (killing the bullish harami from yesterday). Already below the 89, 55, 21 and 10 SMA's and closed below the 144 SMA today. Tested the weekly 3LB mid (1099.50) and failed. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1108.10.



EURUSD
Bearish long day PERIOD. Searching for a bottom (but it ain't over yet IMO). Midpoint is still below 10 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is coming soon. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3700.



SUGAR #11
Bullish long day. Not an engulfing so could be profit taking or start of three soldiers. Still below the monthly 3LB reversal of 18.61. No daily 3LB changes.



5YR NOTE
Bearish long day. Closed below the Gann 8x1 (again). Hot potato, hot potato. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 115`195.

62 comments:

karen said...

I did some charting of Nic's aud:dxy via $xad:$usd on stockcharts.. and it actually seems to have a better correlation to the $spx than my now defunct $xeu:$xjy ratio.. so thanks Nic! and thanks AR, for the candle wrap, as always..

Nic said...

Cool! Check AUDJPY too ...

karen said...

Nic, yup another perfect fit..

mcHAPPY said...

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/ten-ways-to-spot-a-bubble-in-china.html

I-Man said...

I'm totally smitten with that DXY chart...

I-Man said...

CV and Ra, thank you.

I understand the time commitment it takes to do what you do, and the I is humbled by it.

Thanks for making this such an irie place to chill.

Re: the 5yr chart
WTF? How does one interpret that.. is that screaming buy me? For real, I dont think I've ever seen two candles back to back like that. Is that just a 3LB thing, or did price really gap and trade in the same spot too days in a row, selling off, but not going anywhere?

Re: the sugar chart
Anyone else feeling a ride up to that fib? Or is that suicide? Tough market.

Leftback said...

LB had to "work". Here is the Bond Report.

The Bond Report 3.24.10

One of the frightening things about trading govies is auction days. At least, it is these days. You wake up in the middle of the night having the "failed auction" dream, as the 10y yield shoots up from 3.5% to 9.4% almost instantaneously - and suddenly little avatars of your favourite hyperinflationist nutjobs are there to taunt you from all sides with Peter Schiff and Marc Faber being particularly annoying as your portfolio crumbles to dust and Faber pronounces your bonds to be "Vurthless..." Anyway, we've all had those nightmares. But that's why hedges exist. Today wasn't the Big Break, because shitty corporate paper was well bid while anything related to govies was tossed out of 28th floor windows attached to heavy weights. The curve steepened considerably but the 2y was also beaten with a stick. Reward-free risk, as we have opined here previously. The 10y reached 3.85%, which is pretty much the top of a range that has existed since late summer.

Corpies: LQD -0.74%; AGG -0.51%; JNK -0.10%; HYG -0.06%;
Govies: TLT -1.83%; IEI -0.65%; TIP -0.81%

Luckily for us we had put an absolutely massive hedge on late last Friday and by sheer idiocy had left some of it on a stop into the auction of 5y which was miserably weak. We closed the remainder of the short at the end of the day for a large profit and breathed a sigh of relief. Days like this fortunately do not come along very often.

I need a drink.

I-Man said...

Ite...

I-Man needs to hit up some sunshine before the end of the day- be back to geek out with yall later.

I love spring...

Leftback said...

...and just think they will be selling the 7y tomorrow, although at these yields one would imagine the bidding will be more enthusiastic.

The market is saying "Timmeh, we don't want the supply of the 5-7y note to be so fecking enormous". I think that's clear.

Credit hedge funds might be tempted to sell some risk assets tomorrow and grab a few Ts at these rates. Eh?

Leftback said...

Right now the 5y and the yen look a bit oversold. Yen gaining a little strength already overnight, we think that might be equity bearish.

Lots of cash here. We think the small caps are ripe for a fall.

Leftback said...

LB will offer a thought from ZH today:

"what's the best way to get buyers into T-bills..?"

An imminent market crash - today moved us one step closer.

Nic said...

Yen does look a bit precarious, maybe some repatriation flow left tonight.

Thanks Amen-ra(love your charts)& CV.
Enjoy your well-earned drink LB

karen said...

That might be your best bond report ever, LB.. But if the 10 exceeds 4%, B in T will be throwing mud in our faces! or is that egg.. either one would be good for our complexions at the expense of our egos..

Leftback said...

These are the craziest markets. Costanza trading and phat phinger moves trump thoughtful analysis. Every day lasts a lifetime.

Bonds were supposed to be restful... 4% is probably indeed the line in the sand. But that means the 30y will be at 5% and that brings the banks down and hastens the end of life as we know it for that nice man Jamie Dimon. Hmm.. come to think of it... bring it ON....

mcHAPPY said...

Ahhhh LB.

You bring up a topic that is gaining mcHAPPY's attention of late - TZA. Me thinks it is about to take off.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

My bad. Didn't realize I forgot to refresh the chart before saving. Sometimes it will double the current day. Freaky wasn't it?

CV said...

@LB

Just back now... But I think Tyler at ZH hit the nail on the head...

BB is really seeing the "fruits of his efforts" at the moment with no interests in bills, and Obama swiping the card at every shop in the mall...

Either mid-long yields have to blow out, or equities have to tank...

This is DO OR DIE time...

I'm still in the camp, have been all along, that when the gun was finally put to the head, everything would be chased into the 30 year (perhaps even by mandate)... Yields way down below 3... HELL... ZERO if that's what it takes...

Johnny on the street won't be too happy about it... But who in Washington really cares about Johnny anyway?...

Bad timing though... I'd have suspected they'd rather have 'timed' this for after the November elections...

CV would be happy tho... I might even take a lien out on the farm if they can bang those yields down to dirt...

CV said...

@Amen

Good wrap amigo - BTW...

karen said...

CV, no way Jose, no liens.. unless you rent it out and leave the country (again!)

karen said...

AR's wrap was hilarious.. who knew he had a sense of humour?!

CV said...

@karen

Yeah you're right... ABSOLUTELY RIGHT... What was I thinking?

That was my "DL using leverage on the last 11% moment"...

I promise to never let it happen again...

What CV needs to do is just keep sticking the shovel into the ground... Maybe I'll produce a nice Pinot Grigio one day :-)

CV said...

@karen

Amen is a funny dude... He's 'sly' that way...

CV said...

@karen

I'm going to have to take a look at those 'boutique' FX crosses you and Nic were talking about in the other thread...

That crossed the wire after I'd left, and I haven't had a chance to do a 'look see' yet...

karen said...

apparently, brad pitt is "bored" and that's the reason for his garishly unattractive facial hair. i'm bored too!

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
call me ahab said...

well- interesting- had an intraday rate increase-

happens sometimes- but not often-

as I have mentioned before- or a million times- the USG and the Fed will continue on doing what their doing until they're punished for their bad behavior-

been a long day and have not perused the other thread- however I am sure the observation was made that higher yields are the last thing the USG wants-

they have been having their cake and eating the whole pie (so I mixed some metaphors- sue me)-

low treasury rates and a ramp up in stocks- nirvana- for TPTB-

now let's see what happens

McFearless said...

CV and Ra,

Yes, thanks to both of you guys, thanks very much for the work you put into this, it must be extremely time consuming. I started a journal a week and a half ago and I've missed 3 days already!

I hope at some point in the future I won't have work restrictions and can contribute something...

call me ahab said...

here's a headline-

"Bond Auction Fizzles on Fears of 'Fiscal Train Wreck'"- CNBC

sounds comforting-

and another headline-

"GoDaddy to Stop Registering Domain Names in China"- CNBC

"Internet domain company GoDaddy.com said it planned to stop registering domain names in China, joining Google in protesting cyber attacks and censorship in that country."

exactly the fallout I was talking about the other day-

where are my goddam kudos?

Anonymous said...

Just thoughts to clear my mind:

From Canada -"First time home buyers say they felt pressured to enter the market amid talks of higher interest rates and housing prices - yahoo.com"

"Higher interest rates could be coming sooner, says Bank of Canada gov."

David Fry @ etfdigest.com's opening image of today's post "Danger - enter at your own risk". Yet th punch bowl remains and the underlying trend is not broken.

My thought, if higher interest rates are coming, then stock market should correct? No?

This market feels like Oct 2007ish.

Bernanke speeks tomorrow. Will he take away the punch bowl. Not likely.

DL said...

cv @ 8:38

I think someone's trying to make fun of me.

McFearless said...

ahab,

yes, higher rates, all the wizard's work but the bond market is going to ruin it all.

As for how to trade it, WWGSD.
What Would Gary Schilling Do

@Anon,

higher or rising rates rates don't nec. equal lower stock prices, you only need look back a few years to see that.

McFearless said...

watching the philly news, put a poll up that says 62% of people want republicans to fight health care bill.

that's "golden"

AmenRa said...

McF

HAHAHAHAHAHA

CV said...

@DL

From 8:37.59 PM (EST), all posts made by CV shall be declared 'null and void'...

By executive order... :-)

CV said...

But OMG...

If that's the case, then 'what to make' of the (10:50) post?

It seems that conundrums abound these days... Especially for bond traders, nerdy FED Chairmen, lapdog politicians...

Let's FOLLOW THE YELLOWBRICK ROAD to Emerald City to see the wise old "Squid", he's sure to have the answer!

Just don't ask him how to trade the Euro...

AmenRa said...

When does the USG report tax receipts after April 15th? If it's down significantly from last year then uh oh.

CV said...

@ben (10:37)

WWGSD?

That's so 2000...

Nowadays it's more like WTFWGSD?

CV said...

@Amen (11:01)

No sweat... I'm sure they have a new FASB trick for that shizz...

CV said...

@McF (10:42)

Ha!

F*** these 2,000 page documents... I'll give you the REPUBLICAN HC Bill in 3 words...

"Don't get sick"

call me ahab said...

I think this article speaks volumes-

"Health Care Law Signals US Empire Decline?"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36013573

a short article so give it a read- quick synopsis-

"the end of an empire- like the British- we're scared and we need the government to take care of us"

call me ahab said...

ahab has left the building-

actually- I'm going to bed- very long day-

a thought on our future-

"mediocrity"-

tackling the unknown too scary anymore for "Americans"-

new motto-

"give me comfort or give me death"

CV said...

@ahab

When you say "we" are scared and we need the government to take care of us...

don't include CV in that "we"...

(I don't need Obama to pay for my gas and mortgage)... Not much is 'scary' to these eyes...

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
CV said...

...except karens tan!

That's some scary shizz there :-)

karen said...

it'll be gone tomorrow, cv, i assure you..

CV said...

It'll be the end of the world if LB ever sees it :-)

CV said...

...and that's a WENDY's "you know when it's real" tan...

Not some Obama HC "10% excise tax on tanning salon tan" kinda deal...

karen said...

Futures up up and away this morning? I am also confused that Soros and John Paulson have placed such big bets on Citigroup.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/03/23/soros-citigroup-bet-is-he-in-the-money-yet/

McFearless said...

Yesterdays auction was extremely important I think. The absolute last thing that "they" want are higher rates.

karen said...

that finviz site is excellent.. not that i like what it is saying right now. normally, i don't get up this early but i am extremely agitated today.

McFearless said...

stocks are just a sideshow today, dollar, bonds, metals.....

karen said...

ben, did you see the barrons article on FEDX?

Don't Count on a V for Victory for FedEx

McFearless said...

Karen,

Yep, read it. The big article in Barron's this week was the no double dip article.

I have to say, the last thing on my mind is some sissy double dip recession.

karen said...

well, gold trend seems to be down.. today will be important if it reverses.. I just can't fathom the disconnect.. stocks undervalued?!

GE going to $20? http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/03/24/bernstein-on-ge-stock-is-going-to-20/

McFearless said...

Karen,

I think Dick Bove is calling for $16 on C.

McFearless said...

games are back on today people!

AmenRa said...

People still listen to Bove after that little incident on CNBS?

McFearless said...

Ra,

apparently, that dude bought C pretty much all the way down as I recall, but he's still out there, making calls.

call me ahab said...

"Stock futures are rising Thursday as the market appears set to resume its steady climb higher." Yahoo Finance

see- steady climb- just buy some stock already and relax- lol

karen said...

jobs number to boost the dollar a bit? seems to be firming again..

karen said...

Hey, did you all see the Hugh Hendry has an NLY position?

http://www.marketfolly.com/2010/03/hugh-hendrys-eclectica-likes-annaly.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarketFolly+%28Market+Folly%29

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

Sorry I was a little late there...

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