Morning Audibles

Since this is a short (probably "untradeable" week), I guess this counts as "hump day" (don't get excited Mutt)...

I thought this was in interesting link yesterday (ht ben)...



So that's about it in the world (unless you consider North & South Koreans sending artillery rounds up each others @sses, or, on a similar note, Barney Frank saying that Ben Bernanke is a genius - newsworthy)...

As for me... Last Friday I said I was going to do some "soul searching"... The end result? It took all of about 5 minutes to do so... Just to confirm that what I was thinking was not a conjured illusion, I consulted my dear friend doctor Peter Venkman (who confirmed for me what I'd believed all along)...




But the story behind the story here is that I'd neglected my history... I'd forgotton that there have, in fact,been brave knights who'd partaken of magnificent quests... And that what I'd been witnessing was just a more modern version of one (of said knights accompanied by a band of happily singing minstrels)..



I'd also forgotten the fact that... "Imitation IS the sincerest form of flattery"... I remember back in January (when CV embarked on his own quest), CV was beaten, and tarred, and feathered for having done so... It turned out OK in the end... When things succeed in that way, it is inevitable that copycats will spring up... That... Should be considered a daily challenge (not so much for the copy catters, that basically need to assimilate ideas from elsewhere, and simply add an "& oh by the way, I hate teapartiers" ending to it).. No, the DAILY CHALLENGE belongs to the idea originators... The ones coming up with unique ideas, radical thoughts, and YES, "entertaining" presentations... CV relishes the role of "entertainer", but entertaining can sometimes be a bloodthirsty business which leaves CV feeling this way in the end...


Make no mistake about it though... Life is a WAR... There are many enemies that an individual fights on a daily basis... Some of those enemies have faces, some of them don't... Sometimes the enemy is in the mirror... Sometimes you fight in groups, sometimes you go it alone, and sometimes you're forced simply to "represent" the groups or cause you're fighting for...

While I may need my rest from time to time, I won't back down until I've faced my very last enemy... CV's "Achilles Heel", so to speak, is that I relish a fight to the death... If you back down from that fight... They will not remember your name...


-EMBED DISABLED click to view video-

296 comments:

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CV said...

BTW...

This was the "500th" post on this blog...

CV said...

A little weekend viewing (if you have the time)...

http://fora.tv/2010/07/28/Niall_Ferguson_Empires_on_the_Edge_of_Chaos

mcHAPPY said...

Congrats, CV.

CV said...

@McHappy

Congrats go to Amen Ra & Andy T...

Otherwise the number would probably be closer to "300", which, in of itself is probably an appropriate number considering what I was up against at the Thermopylae beginnings...

ben22 said...

woo hoo, 500. Nice going.

CV,

don't look now, but there's this little insider trading anal probe going on.....

Note the media message thus far has been to state in a round about way that nobody important will get in trouble, they are just.....too important. This should do wonders in the Fed/Treas/US Govt's quest to..."restore confidence"

AmenRa said...

North Korea fired missiles at one of South Koreas islands. South Korea fired back. I think the dollar just broke through some upside resistance.

spoonman said...

Karen,
Speciallyfor you. If it wasn't already posted.

Anonymous said...

AR,

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=&a=&w=&v=d1

wasn't the Paperback higher, last week?

AAIP

mcHAPPY said...

CV,

Good point. Between the three of you there is a nice combination of TA, EW, and unique and humourous fundamental analysis combined with TA at times. Thanks to all of you.

AmenRa said...

AAIP

A little higher. If it closes here it will be the second close above the 23.6% retrace. Next level to look out for is the low from 8/6/10 of 80.08.

karen said...

BEN! I am calling foul, I mean insider trading, on JCG!! LOL
you saw the news, I take it..

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/11/22/j-crew-nears-a-sale-to-chairman-and-buyout-firms/?partner=rss&emc=rss

Spoonman.. thank you so much!! will watch that shortly.. still have to take in this morning's audibles.. : )

McFearless said...

Karen,

yeah, i did see it, going to be itneresting to see how this all plays out, this is the new thing, always some real big (bad) news around t-giving last few years it seems.

Dollar looks interesting but I'm with AT in that I can't find an impulse wave off the lows, closing above the key 23.6% is important though, no doubt.

karen said...

"Shares in J. Crew closed up 1.6 percent on Monday, in anticipation of the company’s earnings." (yeah, right!!)

karen said...

i am livid the dollar via UUP can't break 23... and crude holding firm above 80.. total bummer : )

spoonman said...

And there's also these thoughts on money I found on my weekend reading. No eye candy there though, sorry. It's a long read, but I found it worth it. CV, if you're around you might find it challenging to your thoughts on silver(in a good way). And I know Ben is always interested in "what is money?". His short answer: "money is the bubble that doesn't pop". Very interesting, don't know what I think of it yet...

CV said...

@Amen

1-1-8-6

McFearless said...

"money is the bubble that doesn't pop"

gonna have to read that, lots of things have been used as money during man's history, the medium of exchange has certainly "popped" many many times, now the concept of money....yeah, I might agree, it won't ever die.

Just look how far the dollar has gone while it had no simultaneous definition and actuality.

Leftback said...

Karen

If you need eye candy, LB is always happy to oblige....

Leftback said...

LB is taking a bit of a shellacking on the compression trade this morning. Of course we are doubling down on that one.

Never let it be said that LB doesn't know how to take advantage of a widening spread.

Fraudfield County is abuzz with chatter about the FBI raids and the likely consequences, according to the chaps out there between the hedges.

spoonman said...

Sorry, I misquoted, "money is the bubble that doesn't have to pop". Do read the article though.

karen said...

CV! you so lost me on the last clip that I forgot the market was even open.. as a matter of fact, after the last line, 'he isn't my king,' i didn't even know where i was.. i am not kidding!!

CV said...

@spoonman (9:41)

Thanks for that link... I'll give it a look see...

Here's another little thing that might "challenge" peoples minds when they think about who controls the money... (and the possible role of "silver" in that equation)...

---

"On June 4, 1963, a little known attempt was made to strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the government at interest..."


On that day President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order No. 11110 that returned to the U.S. government the power to issue currency, without going through the Federal Reserve.

Mr. Kennedy's order gave the Treasury the power "to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury." This meant that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury's vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation. In all, Kennedy brought nearly $4.3 billion in U.S. notes into circulation. The ramifications of this bill are enormous.

With the stroke of a pen, Mr. Kennedy was on his way to putting the Federal Reserve Bank of New York out of business. If enough of these silver certificates were to come into circulation they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve notes. This is because the silver certificates are backed by silver and the Federal Reserve notes are not backed by anything.

Kennedy was "gunned down" in Dallas, TX 5 months later... The truth behind that still remains a "mystery"... (that was 47 years ago - yesterday)...

Executive Order 11110 could have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level, because it would have given the government the ability to repay its debt without going to the Federal Reserve and being charged interest in order to create the new money. Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S. the ability to create its own money backed by silver.

After Mr. Kennedy was assassinated just five months later, no more silver certificates were issued. The Executive Order was never repealed by any U.S. President through an Executive Order and is still valid. Why then has no president utilized it?

Virtually all of the nearly $6 trillion in debt has been created since 1963, and if a U.S. president had utilized Executive Order 11110 the debt would be nowhere near the current level.

Perhaps the assassination of JFK was a warning to future presidents who would think to eliminate the U.S. debt by eliminating the Federal Reserve's control over the creation of money.

Mr. Kennedy challenged the government of money by challenging the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt -- war and the creation of money by a privately owned central bank.

His efforts to have all troops out of Vietnam by 1965 and Executive Order 11110 would have severely cut into the profits and control of the New York banking establishment."

http://www.john-f-kennedy.net/executiveorder11110.htm

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I have been keeping track of the number of comments. Apparently about 50% are from Leftback about some aspect of Karen's anatomy, so they probably should be erased to keep you from an harassment suit in the future...

JMO

Matthew said...

I'm NOT playing the compression trade (i.e., I'm not shorting high quality bonds), but I am legging into high yield this morning. You could say that I'm playing half of the compression trade.

(Yes, I broke my rule of not trading during Thanksgiving week).

CV said...

@karen (9:51)

The last video clip was, as always, a metaphor...

There are two points to be made...

- Some warriors fight their own battles (and answer to no king)...

- Those who run away from the challenge to battle are not remembered in history... Thus the line (by Achilles) to the little page boy who says "I wouldn't want to fight him"...

Achilles says: "That's why no one will remember your name"...

spoonman said...

On the money not having to pop concept, I note that in Andy's last update, gold was taking on an "unrecognizable shape". Not saying this is the moment, but put that together with a stretched gold/silver(or *insert favorite commodity here*) ratio, people like Einhorn saying "gold is money" and it seems like gold is making a bid to become money(in the winner take all sense of the article). Maybe it's a bubble, but maybe it doesn't have to pop.

CV said...

@Bruce (9:57)

CV has carefully kept LB off the payroll...

LB is paid indirectly by way of a secret slush fund... CV has these stashed all over the world... It's a borderless, and tax free system of holding companies :-)

McFearless said...

LB,

Is that just a "trade" you are doing there, and adding to a losing position?

Brave man! I like how you roll.

McFearless said...

@spoon,

man would that be awesome if the net perception changed to that.


Not sure if you get the EWT but in this latest Prechter changed the scaling of one of the gold charts and drew a channel on it to show a possible outcome, lets just say if it plays out the way he labeled it with a blow-off fifth wave then gold is going several thousands and ounce higher....just way higher than it is now.

that said, he discussed holding a short gold position for the next six years in the same section!

and, before the trolls come out, these shorts are simply a hedge against the core physical gold position he's advised people to get many many years ago.

karen said...

I have been thinking the same thing here: businessinsider (but I haven't watched it yet..)

Gasparino: The Feds Are Barking Up The Wrong Tree With These Hedge Fund Raids http://read.bi/h9ZQfH

karen said...

I am the fool that added to her short gold position.. it is at a critical juncture..

karen said...

Oh my.. even the gasparino article I link ended with the words, "No wonder people are buying gold."

McFearless said...

also, I have a hard time every claiming gold as a bubble,.... for a lot of reasons.

CV said...

@karen (10:11)

good luck with that... :-/

McFearless said...

the whole hedge funder thing is just more of the GIB team

Calling Foul said...

Karen - Seriously you are calling foul (9:26) on Thanksgiving Week, well that does make sense.....

Mangy Mutt

agamemnon said...

achilles fights because that what he does

karen said...

<3ing, <3ing, <3ing Einhorn..

CV said...

I can't NOT get my mind off the idea that despite the dollar being weak here and PM's being rich...

That QE2 is going to drive forward come hell or high water...

I'm not speaking anymore as to it's effect on the S&P... The 20% run-up off the summer lows was maybe all you could expect from that...

But what happened in 2008? Remember? S&P peaked in fall of '07... Then financials got hammered... What rose? Oil (which almost got to $150 by the summer)... Gold & PM's did well also...

They chalked it up to CHINA back then ("the Olympics" - lol)...

Now? There's no real reason, but hot money has to go somewhere... Where will it go? It'll go to the things that keep going up...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/spain-portugal-bonds-drop-on-debt-concern-bunds-rise-on-korea-skirmish.html

Irish, Portuguese Bonds Lead High-Deficit Nations' Slump as Crisis Deepens


“Buying Portuguese sovereign debt is a good investment,” Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates said in an interview on television channel SIC Noticias. Portugal “doesn’t need aid. We will solve our own problems.”

...Will they never learn just to shut up?

karen said...

GiB Gibibyte (2^30 Bytes)
Gib Gibibit (2^30 Bits)
GIB Guy In Back
GIB Gastrointestinal Bleeding
GIB Gibraltar, Gibraltar - Gibraltar (Airport Code)
GIB Good In Bed
GIB Guaranteed Insurability Benefit
GIB Global Internet Business
GIB Granville Island Brewery (Vancouver, BC, Canada)
GIB Ginsberg's Intelligent Bridge Player (Bridge-playing software)
GIB Giant Inverted Boomerang (Vekoma made roller coaster)
GIB General Information Book
GIB Global Infrastructure Boom
GIB General Instruction Book
GIB Gamer's Italian Board
GIB Group Interface Board

karen said...

uup coming up to 23.

McFearless said...

My wife makes fun of me for liking that Troy movie.

karen said...

well, it put me in a trance.. i think i need to re watch it : )

karen said...

gdx and my little miner down today.. bad sign.. we will see.

karen said...

themosmitsos - If Gold breaks & holds >1380/85 next ~24hrs, it's gonna be on like fucking donkey kong.

karen said...

another great pick! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Saudi-billionaire-buys-1-apf-1848638552.html?x=0

Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal says he has invested $500 million in General Motors, the U.S. auto giant whose shares returned to trading last week after its bankruptcy and bailout by Washington.

Matthew said...

I suspect that a lot of the chasers (mutual funds) will be taking this opportunity to dive in to the shallow end of emerging market equities, head first.

karen said...

upside down cup and handle on goog..

CV said...

@karen

"Good in Bed"... I'll go with that one

Leftback said...

B in T:

None of LB's comments are about Karen's anatomy, delightful though it undoubtedly must be. Every comment is about the market, e.g.

Karen's Top = SPX 1103-1107 area.
Karen's perfect bottom = UUP 22 area... etc..

Matthew:

Yup, agreed on accumulation of high yield. Not involved with IG at all here, no reward, all risk. LB thinks the buying of Treasuries at the long end is overdone and is fading the "safety trade" here. I am also accumulating some of my favorite boring dividend payers today, if my orders get filled.

Ben

Adding, but with a mental stop on the Treasury short.

Leftback said...

"....it's gonna be on like fucking donkey kong.."

Karen, can you explain this to one of delicate sensibilities?

CV said...

@karen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3JvB0vj52A

McFearless said...

Matthew,

lots of mf's are out pimping Turkey, among others. shocking I know.....ROR.

CV said...

"Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal says he has invested $500 million in General Motors"

---

Oh great... Now in addition to Citigroup, the US taxpayer will forever be obliged to backstop the Saudi Royal Family on this...

What's next? Is Obama going to require us all to do a hajj to Mecca?

Leftback said...

LB agrees that there are lots of people chasing emerging market bonds and equities, and a return of short USD:long EMs will likely be the December trade for the performance anxiety crowd.

We played that sucka up to the QE2 announcement and took away 15%. Right now, that's just not our flava. We are playing the domestic equity and credit markets, and we have half an eye on Japan as our best bet for 2011, providing that China doesn't crash heavily.

AmenRa said...

Only one thing has me worried about the down move. TICKS never made a new low after the opening minute even though the market made lower lows. Let this be a fluke...PLZ.

karen said...

LB, I have no clue what it means! it was a tweet from that very crude and rude character, themosmitsos.

CV, thanks for the pick up.. think I'll play Hotel California next..

So what does GIB stand for??? Besides what it really stands for as CV noted.

Leftback said...

"I suspect that a lot of the chasers (mutual funds) will be taking this opportunity to dive in to the shallow end of emerging market equities, head first."

Some of those managers may not have noticed that hedge fund guys usually drain their pools before Thanksgiving. Happy landings !!

karen said...

CV, I think the US has been backstopping the Saudi Royals for a many, many years. They are Long Like Tepper!

Leftback said...

This pre-turkey week isn't usually a very significant trading week, and there is a big chance of misdirection in thin trade. Fading this week's trading has been quite profitable in the past.

karen said...

New blog post: AUD laying in neckline support http://www.forexlive.com/148501/all/aud-laying-in-neckline-support

karen said...

if only the market would crash after this post, lol:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/zombie-bears-time-to-admit-the-recession-is-over/

Jennifer said...

Karen -- re: GIB, thanks for asking, I've been wondering myself.

CV said...

GIB=global idiot bubble

Matthew said...

@Karen:

You have to shoot zombie bears in the brains or they won't die. If you are bitten by a zombie bear, you will become infected and undead. When they attack, they stand on their hind legs and waddle slowly toward people with their front paws outstretched.

Jennifer said...

Hourly upper downtrendline from last two weeks that was broken to the upside held on retest. ES VWAP seems to be holding on retest...thinking of a long trade here.

karen said...

the market is still overvalued regardless how you label the economy.. and jobless rate is actually greater than 10%.. and the housing problem is a real problem.. and the banks haven't written off their losses.. so sure, in our mark to make believe word.. the recession is over.

Matthew said...

@Karen:

It might make more sense to use GDP per capita when dating recessions, albeit, I don't think that labeling a recession correctly or incorrectly matters much in the grand scheme of things.

Leftback said...

Some more thoughts on credit and why LB is buying junk:

Mister Softy Bonds Down Since Issuance

The recent JNJ and MSFT offerings were just an unbelievably bad buy for bond investors. Buying higher yield and avoiding the lower yield corporates is a complete no-brainer here. Sovereign debt problems will migrate across the Atlantic in time to the Treasury market, and take the IG segment of the credit market down with it. Munis are deeply suspect, as well as subject to rate risk, EM bonds are subject to slowdown and currency risk, so that leaves HY US credit as the only game in town.

Zombie Bears said...

"When they attack, they stand on their hind legs and waddle slowly toward people with their front paws outstretched."

That's just our way of saying hello....

Matthew said...

Zombie bears become infected when they come into contact with zombie salmon during their spawning season.

On a recent episode of Sarah Palin's Alaska, the politician-turned-naturalist observed a zombie bear eating its own cub's brains, saying, "That momma bear's not protecting her children."

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gQ_R_--2sxJgJplaa8crhSuKIaBw?docId=087e168c87a54d818b555657e5ff080d

Political chaos engulfs Ireland, threatens bailout

"Patrick Honohan, the Irish Central Bank governor, fueled those fears with a speech Tuesday to Dublin accountants. He said Ireland's bank-rescue efforts were right in theory but had failed to restore the confidence of foreign investors, who have withdrawn tens of billions' worth of deposits since the summer.

He said Irish banks must greatly increase their own reserves in response and actively seek foreign buyers.

"They're all for sale as far as I'm concerned," he said of Ireland's six banks, three of which have already been nationalized."

Not a Bond guy said...

So LB, trade the muni's up a bit then ... GET OUT!! ?

Anonymous said...

http://books.google.com/books?id=nJFFrLX-924C&pg=PA81&lpg=PA81&dq=saudi+money+laundering+affair&source=bl&ots=fyrCLffb8h&sig=uxXDeDLqwk5vFeVrOsdZ5ru-qe4&hl=en&ei=r-XrTM3HLYP88Abj8MmaAw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CBwQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=saudi%20money%20laundering%20affair&f=false

Leftback said...

So LB, trade the muni's up a bit then ... GET OUT!! ?

Pennies and steamrollers, my friend, but be my guest....
Dead cat bounce.
Exit rally.

One more decent employment report and low yield bonds go..
BOOM !!!

CV said...

@karen

Kidding & sarcasm aside... These thoughts about the Saudi Royal Family permeate E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-G...

That is why it is IMPOSSIBLE to get into an argument about anyone about anything...

To all BUSH haters... Guess WHY the US went into Iraq?... Think it had to do with WMD's (that liberals wasted 8 years arguing about)???

No...

It had everything to do with protecting the borders of the SRF (which Hussein was massing against)...

Hussein had repeatedly done this (attacks on Iran, invasion of Kuwait)... Despite the resolution of the first Gulf War... He was massing again...

Who TF cares about WMD's (that is ann irrelevant point)... Husseins goal was conquest and control of the region (and ultimately everything that passes thru the Straits of Hormuz)...

Frankly... That's the empirical goal of the US, as well (to control that region)... Why? For cheap oil...

That's it... It's as simple as that...

Nothing changes with Obama (or anyone else) as President...

- We're not going to have wind farms that supply all our needs
- We're not going to have solar farms to supply all our needs
- We're not going to build 265,000,000 Chevy volts
- We're not going to build nukes (power plants) to supply all that energy
- We're not going to dig into the ground to extract our own energy & mineral resources

What are we going to do?

We're going to rape and pillage the rest of the planet for all of it until there is none left...

So all this "lefty" talk about peace, & kumbaya, and solar powered unicorns farting wind energy skittles out of their asses is a load of crap for fairies to talk about over tea...

And as for GM?

Well guess what... it's Obama's way of saying to the "people he bows to"... "Please sir, can I have 50 million dollars to prop up a useless company... I guarantee you, they're all union voters who will vote democratic in all future elections... And our M.O. is to prop up all these useless companies on the back of the US taxpayer until the cows come home"...

Relationship cemented... Have fun on your hajj!

McFearless said...

even if you "trade" munis....what kind of upside we talking about there?

GIB = Get in BIDU....now!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

I agree with your 10:54. Bought some short term cd's again today...yawn....

Matthew said...

Munis are for Brian to sell to hold-to-maturity old people who don't understand after tax yield comparisons.

Prince All-Wally said...

"Please sir, can I have 50 million dollars to prop up a useless company"

Kind Sir! I hope you are not referring to my shares of C..?

Leftback said...

If anyone bought LB to hold-to-maturity, they would certainly have a long wait !!

CV said...

actually it was 500 million...

But what's a few hundred million worthless FRN's amongst friends...

McFearless said...

I'm really trying to understand mr. Match my clothes with my horse and his investment decisions.

First, he averaged down in C, this was widely reported.....all the way down. Is that what a "good trader" does....I've been told over and over by people that have extracted large sums from the market that you NEVER add to a losing position.

Second, lets get real about GM here, they specifically state in the prospectus of the IPO that they don't even have the structure in place internally to accurately report financial data, anyone that bought that IPO did so on a guess, none of the financial data could be trusted, as explained by the company itself. Further, when was it that GM started to have problems...was it 2008....answer, NO. Think the pension problems will show up again over the next few years? Naaaah......what's to worry about.

I could go on and on about the absurdity surrounding GM, and the fact that they even still exist, but today was a POMO!, so I need to stay focused here.

Leftback said...

If one really thought about the economics of states and towns and the crooks who run them, why on earth would one ever buy munis?

The time to buy debt is when the issuer is (a) temporarily in need of a cash injection (b) desperate and on their last dime....

..and no I would not buy Irish debt, Greek debt etc.. we are not even close to the point of no return yet. LB wants to see panic, blood in the streets (metaphorically speaking only), runs on banks and social unrest before he wades into that kind of area.

Not a Bond guy said...

Problem with 401K's, they don't give you enough funds to invest in. Guess if someone didn't want their money in a bond fund, they could move it to S%P fund (nope), small cap (well maybe), emer mkts (maybe), what?

Most 401K's suck

CV said...

"so sure, in our mark to make believe word.. the recession is over."

The recession IS over (for the top 20%)... For the other 8 out of 10...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-key-understanding-recession-and-recovery-wealth-pyramid

catfood bitchez!

Prince All-Wally said...

I bought preferred.

Also they gave me Chuck Prince to ride around the desert.

Leftback said...

In 401(k) there is Vanguard, and there's not exactly.....

for most small investors, the 401(k) is a burning building with no smoke detectors, stairs or emergency exits.

CV said...

@McF

"Match my clothes with my horse and his investment decisions."

LOL - http://www.garanimals.com/

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Prince Wally:

The double-entendre in your post is noted....

karen said...

mrtopstep

$ES_F #futures to much uncertainty=that what's going on here... risk off for the holiday ... question is when is it discounted enuf

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.sacbee.com/2010/11/23/3206686/3rd-eye-nyu-artist-gets-camera.html

3rd eye: NYU artist gets camera implanted in head.

This Aug. 24, 2010 photo provided by New York University arts professor Wafaa Bilal, shows Bilal holding the prototype of a digital camera that he had implanted in the back of his head, in New York

....See, I knew that having Leftback actually living in the NYC area would have a detrimental effect on the rest of the citizenry...only a matter of time until until this reaches Wall Street...

Prince All-Wally said...

Arab proverb:

A camel for pleasure, Chuck Prince for ecstasy.

McFearless said...

@not a bond guy,

yeah, in general, you are right, 401k's aren't great. BUT....lately a lot of companies are starting to adopt a self-directed option. DD, for example, is a big company adopted this about two years ago, it costs my clients there about $250 per year to have the account but they have about 2,000 mutual funds then to choose from on that platform, well worth the fee and the effort to set it up.

I'd also suggest you read your summary plan description (can request at any time or get throough 401k website) to see if you have the ability to do an in-service non-penalty w/drawal where you can move that capital or a portion of it to your own IRA while you are still working at the company. Lots of companies allow these, you just need to know the rules. Some other companies have some restrictions around this, at BAC, for example, they can do an in-service distribution from the 401k to an IRA but there is a formula for how much they can take out in any given year. This is a non-taxable (since you are rolling the funds into an IRA)/non-fee event if allowed to do it, move that stuff to a broker like Schwab and you can pretty much get any investment you want.

if no other options exist and you are losing money, then stop putting money in the account! and no, it's not worth the pre-tax savings deduction if you only have shitty funds.

i'd rather pay taxes than lose money.

Leftback said...

You can f*** the taxman by putting your 401(k) money into a money market account, and leave it there. LB recommends this as the default option, and then you can take a punt from time to time based on extreme conditions in macro markets. The key is to have control and not lose money. If it's a high fee 401(k) program, run away....

karen said...

today would be the day they start jack hammering the stone off my balcony.. no tape or protection on plaster or french doors.. UFB..

karen said...

my ticker screen is frozen.. but not.. nothing happening.. indices at a standstill.

72bat said...

great research, stupid conclusion
Scientists Learn Why Alcohol Can Be Good For You
The results of the study revealed how moderate alcohol consumption can help to prevent heart disease by blocking the signals of molecules linked to plaque build-up in arteries.

The finding demonstrates how alcohol works to benefit the heart - and paves the way for future research for a drug that can mimic alcohol, Redmond said.

"If we can understand the mechanisms mediating the beneficial effects of moderate alcohol consumption, we can develop therapy that can mimic good effects without the intoxicating and deleterious effects of alcohol," she said.

what's deleterious about moderate consumption?

let's spent millions to invent a drug that duplicates the effects of a natural drug.

GIB

Anonymous said...

The truth about California

McFearless said...

speaking of blood in the streets and money market funds

I'd think it's fair to say that the one asset class desired the least right now is cash.

Just sayin....

hoping I can buy SPY just below 116 as this correction comes to an end. Will be looking at some long call options on SPY if we can get there, should be one more leg up still to go.

CV said...

@72bat

lol - right up my alley :-)

72bat said...

jack hammering without protection
GIB
like when the mason cut down my exterior concrete block walls for new windows with a water-cooled diamond power saw and failed to drape plastic inside. sprayed concrete slurry all over everything in 5 rooms.
GIB

CV said...

@McF (11:43)

I kind of agree with your conclusion there...

But, as of recently... If there is going to be a "bounce" on this correction...

The beta is likely to be silver...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Anonymous:

Read that piece of drivel earlier this morning.

http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/state_debt/index.html

McFearless said...

CV,

Based on the combo of Neely and Prechter's work on the pm's, color me extremely cautious about any new positions right now involving any size in that space.

McFearless said...

who uses their jack hammer without protection?

GIB indeed.

CV said...

@72

CV just bought himself a diamond blade wet saw...

Harpers Ferry is full of Cambrian Age phyllite, granite, & shale...

Just pick up the boulders off the ground & load 'em in your truck...

Take 'em home, cut 'em, and you have some fancy decorative landscaping...

Not a Bond guy said...

LB, McF

Thanks, in the 401 there is a MMF and that's where the bulk of the money is parked... it pay's maybe up to 1/2% per year. I'll take that everyday when I'm not in an S&P fund or any other fund for that matter. I donate to the 401 because of the matching funds I receive each year from the company... free $$$. Not much but every little bit helps :)

karen said...

hey.. remember that h&s on the spx ten min i pointed out yesterday.. making the right shoulder.. well it made it.. tho it really doesn't conclude until 1174 or so.. they don't always work out as we know

CV said...

@McF

I'm seeing one more push past the recent highs in silver...

Part of that is this... If it's TRUE that GN's count isn't over yet on $SPX... PM's aren't just going along for the ride, I think they'll lead the way...

JMHO

Leftback said...

"let's spent millions to invent a drug that duplicates the effects of a natural drug."

Ah, you have tumbled to Big Pharma's business plan.

The French had this all worked out years ago. Italians too.
Drink wine, eat whatever you want. Borrow from Germany.

karen said...

Convertbond - North Korea is testing the USA resolve... Iran is watching

(gold might plop after this test is over..)

Anonymous said...

@CV
You can evem make headstones with the boulders?

Remember "send-a-brick" to washington to help build the border wall?

Leftback said...

NABG:

If you are subject to the AMT as LB is, then every penny parked out of the prying hands of the IRS is a penny saved.

In the long run, all roads lead to deflation, so those pennies will be handy when it comes to buying food other than cat food, which is what most SS recipients will be dining on.

karen said...

spx is definitely back in the down channel.. so was the pop above a bull trap?

Leftback said...

K

An attack on South Korea and gold can't rally?

Everyone is long gold, including Kim Jong Il, Pakistani Generals, the Taliban and the Martians.

It's a one way bet.

karen said...

hmm, cooper is looking for 1060.. CV and I were looking for that recently.. i'm not sure if I havent given up ! LOL

Leftback said...

There will be a lot of buying at 1050-1070. A lot.

karen said...

Michigan says it will stop taking new extended unemployment benefit applications after Saturday because Congress has failed to renew the program.

The state Department of Energy, Labor and Economic Growth says about 162,000 Michiganians exhausted their jobless benefits from January through November and about 181,500 will exhaust their unemployment benefits from this December through April 2011, barring an extension by Congress.

Gov. Jennifer Granholm wrote congressional leaders last week, asking for extension of the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation program.

Michigan Unemployment Insurance Agency Director Stephen Geskey says the state's own unemployment benefit program will continue to provide up to 26 weeks of benefits for the newly jobless.

http://yhoo.it/fUIH0p

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ORCL&ty=c&ta=0&p=m

Larry Ellison has been doing some SERIOUS selling this month. Ideas?

CV said...

new chart in thread

It's a little busy... sorry... Nevertheless - a different VISUAL

CV said...

@BinT

Hey... Larry Ellison is in the video I have up at the top of the screen...

Isn't that a coincidence?! :-)

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Oracle is down about 6.5% today...just wonder what might be going on. And Ellison is selling shares like there is no tomorrow...

Larry Ellison said...

Larry Ellison has been doing some SERIOUS selling this month. Ideas?

Even a billionaire needs a little walking around money, Bruce. I mean when friends come over to the house, they need C & H, right? Like my man, Hurd, he has a voracious appetite for it, and then there's Sheen, I mean, his NAME is CHARLIE.

karen said...

don't forget fomc minutes today

karen said...

CV, quick.. GS under 160 again.. buy for the pop !

CV said...

@anon

"You can evem make headstones with the boulders?"

Remember "send-a-brick" to washington to help build the border wall?

---

No headstone for CV needed... Just place 2 gold coins on my eyes and send me up in a funeral pyre like Achilles at the end of Troy...

Bricks? Washington is just down the river... I'll toss a few in from time to time and HOPE they trickle on down there...

Leftback said...

Bruce

Local and state govt are big consumers of software.
They are broke.

That's what the CSCO outlook call was about.

CV said...

I'm going by bens link from yesterday...

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TOiGmhlELXI/AAAAAAAAJN8/bi3XnyeoadU/s1600-h/holiday_thanksgiving%5B2%5D.gif

Since this is a holiday week (a week for TURKEYS)... CV has joined the GIB for a few days...

CV said...

More TROY

CV loved that movie... I think I was "in it" (in that - I think I lived back then)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3obLKEVf5o

karen said...

maybe interesting:

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-kinnucan-wire-sac-business-destroyed-2010-11

karen said...

fantastic and on cue!

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-tenuous-technical-position-of-apple-aapl-right-now/

Bruce in Tennessee said...

GIB may refer to:

GPS Intelligent Buoys, Surface buoys manufactured by ACSA, France, and used to track underwater devices witha metric accuracy
Gibraltar Airport (IATA code)
CGI Group, (NYSE: GIB), an information technology (IT) management and business process services (BPS) company
Guy In Back, the military nickname for a US Air Force air navigator or a US Navy Naval Flight Officer who flies in the back-seat of a tandem two-seater aircraft such as the F-15E Strike Eagle or F/A-18F Super Hornet
Guardians International Brotherhood
Get in Bed
GOOD in Bed
The Green ink Brigade

....Hmmmmm......from Wikipedia

karen said...

tradefast

holding above last weeks low of spx 1173 - volumes starting to thin out ahead of holiday - maybe one more move if minutes surprise

karen said...

zerohedge

Wellington Management busted
less than 20 seconds ago via TweetDeck

Living in my car... in back of an Apple Store said...

AAPL going to $500... because of me... and my friends of course

karen said...

CV, I knew we had met before the internet.

karen said...

look at UUP!!!! 23.02 high!

karen said...

but crude at lod.

karen said...

uup.. very nice rev h&s.. let's see if it plays out.

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/598-billion-wellington-management-busted

karen said...

SellPuts

$aapl trading too tight to just be chilling. she is gonna make a move ... im guessing down and im short here 307.8

karen said...

zerohedge

Wellington owns 11 million share of Apple
half a minute ago via TweetDeck

karen said...

funny how these collisions coincide.. black swans, the perfect storm.

karen said...

who was the hedge fund guy that sold all his aapl shares but 110K ? he sold millions.. can't remember his name.. nice timing.. surely a coincidence.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I think I am wrong about the per centage of ORCL's decline today. It looks more like about 3%.

Still, interesting. And Maybe, just maybe, LB is correct. just walking around money for ellison....

karen said...

i didn't realize oatmeal had so much protein! (and zero cholesterol, LB.)

karen said...

Bruce, down 2.85% but about 10% from a couple weeks ago.. also.. very very very bearish chart. (Tho the P&F chart is still calling for 32.50..no way jose.. not with that rounded top..)

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/11/23/berkshire-on-the-brink.html

(oh, maybe there really is a god!)

CV said...

Remember what CV was saying about FXE (and 133.30) a few weeks ago?

That was the level on 4/26...

Just saying...

But ask yourself WHY gold is green today? (or that silver, tho red, isn't as beta red as equities)...

Your answer may be found if you look at the 'levels' of GLD & SLV on 4/26... then, look at the BASE levels from their launch later in the summer...

karen said...

what if buffet was as deserving of the medal of freedom as madoff?

we already know that berkshire's books are cooked..

CV said...

@karen

"who was the hedge fund guy that sold all his aapl shares but 110K ? he sold millions.. can't remember his name..."

Name was HARRY WANGER

karen said...

Just ignore my buffet musings.. a girl can fantasize if she wants.. : )

karen said...

i swear, seeing uup above 23 for this long is simply amazing.

karen said...

optionmonster

Jamie Talks $VIX Put Buying, That's Right Put Buying! http://ping.fm/0606n

karen said...

oh brother.. lawsuit against JCG directors already.. claiming share buyout is undervalued! even tho it was 2% premium to elevated stock price..

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20101123006327/en/J.-Crew-Group-Shareholder-Investigation-Briscoe-Law

karen said...

OT amusement:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/8152990/Naked-man-spotted-in-car-boot-on-Google-Street-View.html

karen said...

true? i don't know.. but it beats my korea theory: zerohedge

Gold is up cause easy margin call satisfactions using gold sales happened two weeks ago. Today funds have to cover shorts to pledge cash

karen said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nissan-Leaf-rated-at-99-miles-cnnm-4114844054.html?x=0

(CV, I am not posting that to get you riled!)

karen said...

i just looked up a tesla.. you mean they are not even available till 2012???

karen said...

oh, i guess the roadster is available now and the model s in 2012.. sorry..

karen said...

bad news is good, right? HousingWire

Freddie Mac delinquencies increase for first time since February http://goo.gl/fb/2uHO2

karen said...

CV, I'm thinking we rename the blog Karen's Kommentary.. rolling my eyes.

McFearless said...

CV,

Silver and gold taking the "lead" would be a development that I'd consider to be of most importance. Both gold and silver have peaked and declined AFTER similar action in stocks. I think that could be a sign we are getting the blow-off path, not a large correction in the pm's.

McFearless said...

I think it was AT that stated just after this decline started in early Nov. that he wouldn't be surprised by some triangle action, which is exactly what we seem to be getting.

karen said...

if today wasn't the blow off top in NFLX.. even the weekly may leave an abandoned baby.. nflx is the new qcom

McFearless said...

I think we are about to sign up for nflx online.

surely that should be worth a pt or ten on the stock right?

karen said...

Ben.. what you want to see is the miners taking the lead.. gdx, $hui, $xau.. we still seem to be in no-man's land there.. tho the gdx:gld ratio is in an uptrend.. not strong enuf however.

karen said...

Ben.. got my nflx notice today.. my 8.99 plan is going to 9.99.. but they are offering a 7.99 plan with no disc.. just downloads. ha ha ha.. stupid me was paying 18.99 to have 3 disks out that i never watched before i found out about the 8.99 plan and switched..

Leftback said...

Even if these fund mangers get a "book 'em Dano", there is little chance that there will be liquidations of a mutual fund portfolio.

The smaller HFs may have to liquidate if enough of the guys go down that the book has to be unwound (Galleon style) but there is NO CHANCE of a MF being sold off, it would just be sold to another house and accounts transferred.

Leftback said...

HYG below 89 is going to attract some attention.

Karen, your Kommentary has me on the edge of my keyboard. LB loves it when you talk about BLOW OFFs and tops.

karen said...

exactly, LB, so just ignore that h&s formation in aapl (and orcl, too.)

McFearless said...

Karen,

yes, really good point on the miners, of course, talk to enough gold bugs and they'll find some miners for you that are "leading"... Richard Russell comes to mind. Metals are making me nervous, I agree with LB, seems like a one way trade to me, maybe it's one way to the moon though.

As for NFLX, it's just a money thing for us. We watch a lot of movies, if we get a new movie via Comcast that now costs 5.99/per movie and we can only watch the movie up to 24 hours, NFLX would give us more options with a larger viewing time table for far less money.

Also, if I get NFLX I could then cancel my premium movie channel set up with Comcast which is about $22/month.

Now you might say that I needed to get a new tv to make all this work, pushing my break-even out pretty far on NFLX, however, we got that tv for free with AXP points (we buy a lot of paper from Staples, trying to work a deal for 2010 with Dunder Mifflin)

Some people refer to this as a

No Brainer

karen said...

LB.. HYG is below 89.. which is not to be read as 69.. which surely would have you excited.. about buying, i mean.

CV said...

"I think it was AT that stated just after this decline started in early Nov. that he wouldn't be surprised by some triangle action"

If it's triangle action, that's fine... But if that's the case, an argument could be made that PM's aren't going to collapse here either...

It's beginning, (at least to me)... To look like POMO is basically being used to ameliorate what might be a May type rout while Europe hops from Ireland, to Portugal, to Spain & beyond...

After that... Frowns, again, will turn on bucky...

Look... The race is on to devalue all fiat... It'll be a tag team operation...

So great... For awhile, just play short euro/long PM's... Then just go long PM's...

And keep buying catfood with your SNAP & welfare checks...

If Obama want's me to be a communist... Who am I to argue? After all, he's "smarter" than me, right?

karen said...

oh, i love NFLX.. you need aapl TV tho.. wireless.. most fantastic thing i've ever seen!

McFearless said...

Dunder Mifflin deal is 2011....that sort of ruined the joke.....


ugh.

karen said...

i just don't get how they make any money.. NFLX that is..

Leftback said...

Karen

Believe me, LB hates high P/E tech stocks with no dividends. We own none of them and we own no "GROPE STOCK" funds at this point.

But don't under-estimate the capacity of fund managers to gobble them up, and even for Brian to talk JOHNNY into buying the dips.

LB thinks we get one more Run for the Roses in equities, PMs and EMs into the end of the year. Why? Because that's what MOMO managers are paid to do. Go long.

karen said...

Alea_

btw US banks "exposure" to Ireland is only $68 billion
less than a minute ago via TweetDeck

McFearless said...

CV,

we'll see how it all plays out, I have 0 interest in shorting pm's right now but there could be huge money made there. While I realize the popular sentiment is to state that "they" will devalue fiat, much to the dislike of DT, I'd say it isn't "that easy"

lets just remember that there would not be a QE2 program if the threat of deflation wasn't still very very real and very very present and lets also remember what happens to cash in deflation and what happens to everything else.

Leftback said...

"LB.. HYG is below 89.. which is not to be read as 69.. which surely would have you excited.. about buying, i mean."

Karen, at 69 I would be very long indeed.

Ireland is a UK and Germany bank story, US banks have little exposure. LB is staying away from all European equities for now. The interdigitation of the UK and Irish economies and banks should be obvious to all.

Leftback said...

Ben is right. The deflationary forces would already have crushed the markets and the US economy without the QE interventions, and remain extraordinarily powerful.

The game plan is to do QE, force hot cash into the system and force investors out along the risk curve, hold short interest rates at zero and allow long rates to drift up, then give the hand signal for the banks to buy Treasuries again, to allow another piece of the deleveraging process to take place, with its worst effects ameliorated by the QE.

That's the winter, kids. It's going to be ugly, but at least the commodity and fuel bubble is about to pop just in time.

Rinse and repeat.

McFearless said...

Karen,

1:28....oh, you see, in the "new economy" that we've had since the 90's, nobody needs any earnings or to make money in this new economy, the magic market will "discount the future" by assigning the proper value to the stock today based on all known information (none of which has anything to do with the future, the known info is old news and nobody makes stupid linear projections on wall street...but I digress).

So yes, you see, it is entirely appropriate for a company that might make $150 million to be valued above $8 billion and you really shouldn't question the all knowing forward looking stock market.

Of course, others might tell you it's a euphoric social mood pushing that stock to such heights and not some exhaustive fundamental analysis which provides for fancy forward p/e numbers that help rationalize the cheapness of NFLX today, what with that groundbreaking business model/product they have.

karen said...

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/silver-gold-precious-metals-commodities-silver/11/23/2010/id/31310

"With that said, I'd expect a 38% to 50% retracement of the $10 move to about $24 an ounce worst case, and then we should re-attack the $29 highs and likely move into the $32 to $34 per ounce range within the next 60 days or so. Silver will continue to outperform gold for the foreseeable future as well if I’m right."

karen said...

oh, dear, i am afraid to even click on this one: YahooFinance

The Case Against Remarriage http://yhoo.it/hEZKkt

Leftback said...

Speaking of no-brainers, Kim Jong Il is giving you 5% off EWY today.
If LB had wonga to trade, that's where he would put it for a bounce.

When the EMs bounce they will bounce hard, but maybe we are not deep enough yet. Karen, are we deep enough? I think we need to go deeper.

CV said...

@McF

Semantics...

I could care less what "they" are trying to do or not trying to do... I've divorced myself from that argument completely...

I'm interested in what I see on the streets...

What do I see?

- Home prices caput (deflation means more kaput - inflation means nothing - prices won't recover because there is too much glut - banks won't lend - taxes are too high - people are no longer qualified to borrow - and there are no jobs)...

- Stock market? Well, screw idiot things like P/E's (when did they really matter anyway)... There is no benefit or wealth effect in artificially taking the DOW to 36,000... I'll get to DEFLATIONARY later...

- Don't even get me started on the bubble in treasuries, or munis... That's haircut city all the way (down the line)...

So what's left?

Commodities... That can only go so long in "consumable" commodities (food, energy, and materials)... Because as soon as high prices catch up to lifestyle reductions, the game is over and people revolt (that is already happening)...

The only game left in town (unless a new internet is invented) is PM's...

It's the only thing that can rise in price, without necessarily having a suppression effect on the unwashed masses...

As this game plays out, there is going to continue to be this massive "push me-pull you" effect with central bankers tinkering with their MONEY (notes)... and the people's money "goods"...

It's been a constant creep (and I think it's going to continue for a long time)...

The worst nightmare of central banks & bankers are gold & silver in the hands of people...

Money had it's "last hurrah" in 1999-2000...

karen said...

zerohedge

Channel Checker Confirms That All Wall Street Does Is Traffic In Borderline (And Often Blatant) Inside Information http://bit.ly/fGCj5E

McFearless said...

and a follow up to my 1:30

a devaluation that had a meaninful impact, I'm skeptical to the extreme the Fed can accomplish it and further, accomplish it to a greater extent than other countries accomplish their own devaluation, assuming they can do it at all.

as I see it, since 3/18/09 it's been a dollar bears wet dream what the Fed has done yet the DX is not making new lows right now, the larger chart shows higher lows does it not?

meanwhile you have, basically, the whole entire world telling The Bearded Wiz to stop with the QE....he hasn't even succeeded in crushing the dollar and there is a lot of hand wringing going on already.

some might say he's doing it slow and orderly style, I stick to what I've always said, it's the market that has the ultimate say and power and it's the market that will determine the fate of the dollar, not Ben Bernanke or the US Federal Reserve.

dancing with the ??? said...

NOT to be confused with k's avatar
tho' gold & silver bugs might find this somewhat erotic

karen said...

i didn't find any of that erotic at all..

karen said...

1170 would be erotic..

McFearless said...

1159 would be even more erotic

that's some kind of wild nighty or something I don't even know about

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/first-wellington-now-janus

McFearless said...

yeah, was just told about Janus, as I said earlier, should do wonders for the restoration of confidence in "the system", too bad it's coming now, right after John Stewart restored sanity.

karen said...

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/11/23/report-banks-selling-off-more-troubled-assets/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook

karen said...

does the market close early tomorrow?

karen said...

zerohedge

SEC going after all major Gerson Lehrman clients

FOMC Minutes: All About Killing The Dollar http://bit.ly/fWArvi

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