I thought this was in interesting link yesterday (ht ben)...
So that's about it in the world (unless you consider North & South Koreans sending artillery rounds up each others @sses, or, on a similar note, Barney Frank saying that Ben Bernanke is a genius - newsworthy)...
As for me... Last Friday I said I was going to do some "soul searching"... The end result? It took all of about 5 minutes to do so... Just to confirm that what I was thinking was not a conjured illusion, I consulted my dear friend doctor Peter Venkman (who confirmed for me what I'd believed all along)...
But the story behind the story here is that I'd neglected my history... I'd forgotton that there have, in fact,been brave knights who'd partaken of magnificent quests... And that what I'd been witnessing was just a more modern version of one (of said knights accompanied by a band of happily singing minstrels)..I'd also forgotten the fact that... "Imitation IS the sincerest form of flattery"... I remember back in January (when CV embarked on his own quest), CV was beaten, and tarred, and feathered for having done so... It turned out OK in the end... When things succeed in that way, it is inevitable that copycats will spring up... That... Should be considered a daily challenge (not so much for the copy catters, that basically need to assimilate ideas from elsewhere, and simply add an "& oh by the way, I hate teapartiers" ending to it).. No, the DAILY CHALLENGE belongs to the idea originators... The ones coming up with unique ideas, radical thoughts, and YES, "entertaining" presentations... CV relishes the role of "entertainer", but entertaining can sometimes be a bloodthirsty business which leaves CV feeling this way in the end...
Make no mistake about it though... Life is a WAR... There are many enemies that an individual fights on a daily basis... Some of those enemies have faces, some of them don't... Sometimes the enemy is in the mirror... Sometimes you fight in groups, sometimes you go it alone, and sometimes you're forced simply to "represent" the groups or cause you're fighting for...
While I may need my rest from time to time, I won't back down until I've faced my very last enemy... CV's "Achilles Heel", so to speak, is that I relish a fight to the death... If you back down from that fight... They will not remember your name...
296 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 296 of 296 Newer› Newest»Tomorrow is going to be a ghost town, Friday is that weird half day session where JOHNNY buys all the retailers, which then get sold again on Monday. Tuesday is probably going to be the session that shows us the direction for December.
@McF
I'm fine with the DEFLATION argument... But now play it out to the end game...
What happens when everything hits "rock bottom"?
IOW - What happens when prices of everything collapse and in the process, all of these FRN's have been printed?
Wait... you say... FRN's WERE NOT printed... Instead "credit" was printed, and there are holders of that credit...
So what happens when prices hit rock bottom and all that debt, therefore is UNPAYABLE & must be forgiven? The banks are TOAST, because all the money is owed to them...
So what do you do? Have a system with no money at all? No... A money system will have to be created in the aftermath... If they decide to "not" do a re-try on fractional reserve banking, then it will have to be backed by something (which is the opposite of fractional reserve - in practice, if not in principle)...
I'd nominate silver, in that it is 15/17-1 more abundant in the Earths crust than gold... Frankly though, one could use anything they wished...
But you'd think there would be certain criteria...
- It would have to be relatively difficult to obtain...
- It should probably be something that every nation could mine on its own turf...
Or do you think if a NEW MONEY system is created, everyone will just sit around at a table and say "Oh let's just print numbers on a computer, and we'll tell you how much we're worth"...? That would probably be about as productive as arguing who screwed us more, Bush or Obama?
@McF
...and frankly
In DEFLATION, I still want to have as many cans of catfood in the pantry as possible going in...
Not because it would be too expensive... But in the worst of deflation, there would not even BE any catfood to be had on store shelves...
dealbreaker
CNBC And Guy Who Wouldn’t Wear A Wire For Feds Debate The Meaning Of The Term ‘Trouble’ http://bit.ly/g6XLm5
maple leaves would make a swell currency...
$wlsh candle..
I am thinking the PPT hasn't heard the phone today...
SAC Capital discloses government subpoena in letter to investors; focus on consultant use
11/23/2010 02:30:13 PM
We would need to have a hyper-inflationary crisis for the cat food thing to kick in. In deflation, everyone keeps on eating as basic commodities get cheaper and rent takes up less and less of one's income b/c of reduced demand, as everyone is BK and then moves in with Granny.
LB cannot escape the nagging suspicion that we muddle through, without collapses of either hue, and that banksters get richer in the process.
Can LB also say that the more HF managers get perp-walked out of their Greenwich mansions to do hard time as PBs in a lovely upstate correctional facility, the sooner the working people of Fraudfield County will enjoy the fruits of a special kind of deflation.
fantastic uup candle.. trying not to get tooooo excited.
@BinT
"maple leaves would make a swell currency"
---
With or without the gold?
@karen
"fantastic uup candle"
---
I'm not as excited about that as I might normally be...
Why?
North & South Korea...
Gold and silver should be getting HAMMERED with bucky up so large...
Perhaps it's saying that PM's are the "safe haven" trade on geopolitical tensions (the way bucky used to be)...
Now everyone... Please proceed to tell CV how he is W-R-O-N-G on this... I will be entertained to hear how stupid I am...
Today is Haven Central, pre-holiday RISK OFF baby.
Gold, Silver, US Treasuries, USD and JPY. All up today.
You can fade them all, but especially US Treasuries, I think.
I'm practically no longer interested in going long bucky anymore...
Not that I'm a dollar bear...
It's just...
I think "NEW" long dollar trade is "short euro/long PM's" (during those waves)...
...trying not to get tooooo excited....
What would that look like, Karen?
:-)
@LB
Even with silver down 1.25% at the moment...
If you own the spy (in SILVER not DOLLARS), you're making money...
I'm lazy, but I don't think there have been many days (green or red), that silver has LOST $$ to the S&P since the summer...
check HYG:LQD.. haven't seen a dive like that since May.
wanna have some REAL fun...
Look at silver versus the banks... (since, like, QE2 was hinted at back in August)...
Go ahead... bet the BANKS... If you "win" (on that), it's going to be because Bernanke WAS, IN FACT correct...
But then let's look at what the DOLLAR VALUE of those bank shares are worth, down the line...
ready for that?
Bess is really having fun with this today:
http://dealbreaker.com/2010/11/breathe-easy-that-fbi-agents-not-here-to-hurt-you/
Karen, the last HYG:LQD dive was a great buying opportunity. LQD is going to be the dog of dogs going forward, even worse than USTs.
CV
LB owns no banks. Do you see the word TOOL carved in my forehead? Does LB seem like a RICHARD BOVE fanboy? Does LB <3 St. Jamie?
Take it back, you bad man.
HYG:LQD diving is the precursor to SPX diving.. much as $xeu:$xjy was..
While you're at it...
Look at SPX (or BKX) versus gold (or oil) from the time period between 10/07 - 7/08...
HYG has not yet made a new low on the month.. a break of 88.50 would be telling.. and it would probably come fast and hard.
@LB
You misread me... I wasn't insinuating that you owned bank stocks...
I'm just pounding the table, right now, about the correlations between now and 2007 (as I have for about 2 months now)...
Looking for traditional "correlations" in this moment, I believe, will prove erroneous...
QE2 = hot money... Hot money will just flow into what's technically NOT BROKEN at the moment...
& I think LuluLemon will be difficult to sustain that trajectory into next March or July...
OMG if it chases after crude again... Obama will be:
http://www.dollgod.net/scotch/comedy/btoast2.jpg
Tho, since it's oil, I suppose he'll find a way to blame it on the legacy of Bush & Cheney and get some kind of dipshit Cap & Trade agenda pushed...
great Bruce post at TBP.. spoken like a real Doctor!
Bruce N Tennessee Says:
November 23rd, 2010 at 1:19 pm
Let’s look at the healthy economy checklist, shall we?
ZIRP…um, maybe not
Fannie and Freddie own all the houses….hmmm, possibly not either
59% of people polled would not own stock or a car from Government Motors…better hold that, too
JP Morgan says that the lowest 20% of the US population will spend 58% of income on food and energy..nope
small business month after month: biggest problem is not enough customers…suppose can’t check this either
payroll taxes rising…I believe the number for next year is 42 states so far…yawn…
poll of older people show many don’t ever plan to pay off debt..sounds healthy to me
etc…………….
maybe I belong to the skeptical group, if I can no longer have a bearish outlook…
@karen
"typical recession & business cycle"...
Didn't you get the memo from TWSWB?
By the way... Yesterday, I heard that you could OWN the TWSWB's blog for a cool 6.5mm...
So I guess that's the "going rate" for an ego building day filled with "I agree"'s by the Manny's & Thors of the world...
I wonder if BR will also require that you submit a resume (along with your check), to verify your libertarian credentials...?
GM at low of day.. 33.33
mrtopstep
$ES-F #futures UBS bot 500 SPZ over last several minutes or so - open range key - nxt upside obj 1188 area
Government Motors... LOL!
stock 33.35 (and dropping)...
I had to LMAO last night while I was watching the MNF game...
They had a commercial on the "VOLT" (I guess they bought air time because they though the GIB might be tuning in to the CHARGERS game)...
Anyway... The commercial had this volt driving along an abandoned highway in, like the Mojave desert, or Monument Valley, or something...
I was like... "Yeah right... POPULAR MECHANICS says that the range on that thing is something like 33 miles"... In that camera shot, there wasn't even an electrical outlet for at least 300 miles!
They might as well been on the fucking moon!
GIB
jjc.. is that another H&S, or what?!
Durables and initial claims tomorrow.
LB wishes to warn bears that these may be BTE.... just sayin'....
New homes... not so much, but nobody cares, eh?
Americans! Bloggers! CV implores you!
Never let REALITY seep into your opinion on things...
"HYG has not yet made a new low on the month.. a break of 88.50 would be telling.. and it would probably come fast and hard."
Um... Karen... did you just say - come fast and hard... ?
LB does <3 you so when you do that.
@karen
JJC looks like a wave 4 completion to me...
But I'm not the EWI expert... Consult Andy, ben, or McHappy...
@Leftback:
What I see in credit is that you generally have to work your way down to Ba1 before you see anything compelling.
But...
I am looking at the yield on LQD and I think that the 200 bps over IEF might be enough to keep your junk out of the skillet. I wouldn't accumulate it here, but I certainly wouldn't be bailing in terror.
What makes you think it will underperform treasuries?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-lowers-outlook-for-apf-2000185105.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Fed lowers outlook for economy through 2011
...NOW! they tell us...
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Treasury Department says it has received $11.7 billion from the sale of 358.5 million shares of General Motors stock.
Treasury announced that the net proceeds from the GM stock sold last week were delivered on Tuesday. Treasury officials said that the government could receive an additional $1.8 billion assuming the underwriters exercise options to purchase an additional 53.8 million shares of GM common stock within 30 days of the initial stock offering.
The government put $49.5 billion into GM as part of its bailout of the giant automaker.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GM_IPO
You know how I feel about this..
@BinT
"Fed lowers outlook for economy through 2011"
Translation: We'll be along with QE3 when we get done with the latest round of monetization...
if 88.50 breaks on HYG.. that's when you will see bailing in terror..
now, JNK at 39.74 is not pretty unless it bounces..
@karen
"The Treasury Department says it has received $11.7 billion from the sale of 358.5 million shares of General Motors stock."
Translation: President Obama just received another $12 billion "slush fund"... Lame Duck Congress says... "What's the PER DIEM in that between now & January?... And do we have time to vote ourselves another raise?"
TraderMarks great summation:
Downgrade of 2010 GDP by 0.8%
Downgrade of 2011 GDP by 0.55%
Upgrade Unemployment (i.e. higher) in 2010 by 0.25%
Upgrade Unemployment in 2011 in 0.5%
Summary: after denying reality for as long as possible, we are beginning to face it.
That said, we are drinking Kool Aid in 2012 and 2013 as we model 4%+ GDP for 2 years straight. Especially considering that will be 5 years out from the 2007-2008 recession... just about time for a new cyclical downtrend in the economy. (gulp gulp)
-----------------------------
As for monetary policy - we argued a lot. Some of our members thought QE2 would do something. Some members thought it would do nothing. In sum, we have no flipping idea but surely the market will look at us as omnipresent demigods as they always do - so to look like we are useful we will do something. Anything.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/11/summary-of-fed-minutes.html
had a long discussion with my nephew last night...he's visiting his dad and mom at my house while they look for houses in this area (today in fact)...he's a sophomore in business at Indiana University.
I 'splained for of the downside to massive debt and popping bubbles that they apparently don't teach...I hope I don't get him kicked out of school when Thanksgiving is over..
I think "for of" means "aspects of"
dealbreaker
Unfounded Rumor Of The Afternoon: Harbinger Capital Liquidating? http://bit.ly/eGTMK6
Matthew
I have no LQD, sold it all when JNJ was issuing all that 3% paper. One of my concerns is that there is still a lot of supply. I agree, didn't mean to imply it will underperform Treasuries, sorry, bit of hyperbola there. But the extra reward in IG seems likely to be very slight compared with what you can find by going out on the risk curve.
If we get to a 4% 10y again, then I would probably be piling into the safer lower yield asset classes, but for the appreciation, and return of capital, and not for the yield. This was my trade of 2010, I was long the 30y, also LQD and AGG, from late last year all the way into the pre-QE2 climax and it worked out beautifully, although I bailed slightly early.
Karen, can LB say climax?
CGasparino
Sources tell me Diamondback investigation likely involves potential leaks from a Goldman Sachs investment banker and French banker.
CV,
the model for new money, one which I would readily be a promoter of is already out there if you haven't already checked out goldmoney, that's the model, it doesn't entirely do away with the concept of fractional reserves and I'm highly doubtful anything
short of P3 will do that, that or bitcoin is how I see this all resolving:
http://www.bitcoinblogger.com/2010/09/bitcoin-electronic-currency-future-of.html
Added to HYG and SPY longs. Nothing big, just 2% to each position.
22% long HYG/JNK. 5% TIP. 14% short TLT = 7% x 2.
7% SPY. 15% various dividend stocks. Cash is about 40%.
HYG at 88.52.. new low.. geeze.. had to keep changing that a penny at a time as it kept dropping.
@BinT (3:31)
Force your nephew to watch this video...
It'll teach him everything he needs to know about college business courses...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlVDGmjz7eM&feature=related
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/alwaleed-kingdom-buy-500-million-general-motors-stake-in-initial-sale.html
Now I am owning your Government Motoring. I am ubiquitous.
serioulsy.. 88.50 broke to 88.49.. now you gotta watch it.. that is a real canary.. still alive but, ah, not well.
ah, the Fed's outlook on the economy makes headlines... funny how you have people out there bashing economists like David Rosenberg,
I doubt this statement needs much explanation.
zerohedge
Rumor of Harbinger liquidation are totally false. Falcone's entire book is completely illiquid ergo no liquidation possible
"The hearing will explore the Fed's QE2 decision "in light of massive unemployment and the seeming inability of government to invest in infrastructure or to intervene to stop the loss of jobs" and ways to boost the U.S. economy through "changes in the role of the Fed," according to an announcement released by Kucinich's office.
The hearing will also delve into the transparency of the Fed's operations, its accountability, and its dual mandate to maximize employment and minimize inflation."
http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/11/kucinich-to-hold-hearing-on-qe2-nov-30.html
xrt ??? rolling my eyes..
$bkx !!! a site for sore eyes..
88.48 HYG.. something is definitely up.. LB.. I'll send you a chart.
@ben22 (3:36)
I'm going to give to a 3 second analysis... (an "immediate impression" type thing)...
I'm doing this just to engage you in a theoretical argument (of which neither one of has the answer at the moment)...
reading the first paragraph on BITCOIN... This was the first thing that popped into my head...
"If I believe in this... My FIRST TRADE tomorrow is that I want to "short miners""...
Karen,
US credit market action is pre-holiday safety trade.
Nothing more.
@McF (3:36)
Also... OK... with bitcoin...
What happens when somebody detonates an EMP in the atmosphere (and thereby fry's all electronics & electronic transfer systems)?
I'll take my gold, silver, Elsie the cow, coupla chickens, and bag of rice... Thank you!
I'm exaggerating... But you see where I'm going...
I am amused to see emerging markets breaking hard today. Center stage is EWS, which I consider to be a leveraged punt on emerging markets in asia. It is down about four percent. If this continues, we all have to give Leftback credit for his emerging markets call.
darn.. trying to post 18's numbers from 11/15 can't cut and paste.. 1\
1224 (52 week high)
1206 (you are here on 11/15)
1188
1170
1152
1134
1116
1098 (52 week most volume)
1080 TODAY!
1062
1044
"What happens when somebody"
Well, owners of those fancy 3D televisions will still have working stereoscopic glasses.
LB.. the down in HYG commenced on 11/05... just sayn' !!!
sorry i didn't finish
1026
1008 (52 week low)
K.,
Thanks, lovely piece of charting - I see big chart support at HYG 88 but it may not fall that far. Holding some dry powder in case if we get there next week.
I think your chart shows a big oversold in August followed by a smaller one. We are probably looking at a repeat of that followed by a resumption of the uptrend, in my view.
There are no fundamental arguments for a collapse of US corporate credit. I am playing the compression trade from here until we get out to a decent yield on Treasuries again.
x
LB
@McF
IOW... I'be better be investing in "faraday cages" to protect my bitcoins... :-)
The tightening in China is the key to EMs. They are really very concerned about the level of food inflation and housing speculation.
There is a bit more money to be made in 2010 but it will be made in prosaic and undervalued sectors. Corpies and divvys will grind out a few points here while energy, metals and emerging markets go nowhere.
CV,
the same thing that happens now when electronic systems go down, you transact with a physical form of the monetary exchange assuming you were wise enough to have some on hand rather than giving your full faith to "the system" or you find another way to survive, like your cow, though I'm sort of partial to Bertha the cow.
What happens when cows become extinct would be a similar question, but we'd assume there was another animal that you'd be using at that point, or you set aside some of your Elsie/Bertha to get you through to finding your next source, or you just die. Not a great comparison I realize.
Man, just read the BR pat myself on the back post about zombie bears....,while he has a point, that's really a funny joker post, as are the comments he makes within the thread, like that "data-driven" observation that unemployment was 12% and now it's 9.6%. The biggest bear anyone has ever heard of is named Robert Prechter, and he's been a bear forever, and even he long ago acknowledged that the economy was turning up, lol.
wow, laugh my fucking ass off
@McF
There's a "cool" faraday cage in this movie...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R90vWtcHLlE
"What happens when cows become extinct would be a similar question, but we'd assume there was another animal that you'd be using at that point"
Tilapia bitchez...
...and when that fails... the WORMS that the Tilapia eat...
Backups upon backups bro... That's CV's mo :-)
you know, the real support for hyg was 89.. when that broke on 16 Nov, there was rebound buying that lasted 3 days before if fell even ower (today..) This is what i really see on the second chart i sent with the BBs.. so today the bottom band got broken.. the story will continue tomorrow..
Bye all.... will assemble a mini Bond Report shortly.
LB is off to Blighty in the morning. But due to the wonders of modern technology, and an I-Mac at LB's ancestral home, he may well be chiming in on the credit markets from a safe distance.
Karen breathes a sigh of relief as LB will be 6k away instead of 3k...
@karen
"the seeming inability of government to invest in infrastructure or to intervene to stop the loss of jobs"...
CV... since day one... has HUMBLY suggested that the BEST way to have ubiquitous job growth & investment in infrastructure would be to...
BURN THE FUCKING HOUSE DOWN - START FROM SCRATCH - & UTILIZE HUMAN WILL/SPIRIT/& COOPERATION TO ACHIEVE THAT END
But I'm not that smart... So please, nobody listen to me...
Stocks are over-valued on a fundamental and y o y comparison.. (JG says 980 is fair value.) Our economy is not what it was in 2006.
If the QE punchbowl gets taken away.. (hahaha, it's already coursing thru the veins).. we could see a healthy correction and some debt purge, with positive benefits!
who has not acknowledge the artificial inflation of the market and assets??
@Matthew (3:53)
LOL... So they'll have that going for them...
CV is actually going to have to get his hands on a pair of those glasses...
I'm pretty good at making something USEFUL out of something utterly ridiculous...
i'm glad i wasn't just in my outdoor shower as a passel of workmen just decided to stroll about my property.. apparently a respite from the jackhammer.
another chart to look at: $ssec
@LB
"The tightening in China is the key to EMs. They are really very concerned about the level of food inflation and housing speculation"
---
I know I'm sounding overly argumentative here today (if only to illustrate that on this blog - we all DON'T HAVE TO ALWAYS AGREE)...
but... IMO
Concerned about food inflation or speculation... OR... more simply? Concerned about the PEASANT HUMANS?
I doubt it...
All humans (in power) are concerned about is their own elite status (even to the point of ACTUAL revolt)...
All those in POWER will apply pressure, and continue to apply pressure until the masses actually do revolt)...
Don't count on sympathy, compassion, or reason... EVER!
K.,
Thanks again for the analysis.
Generally the bond market is less "charty" than equities b/c bond market participants look at yields and spreads of issues and not just at the ETFs. I know that HFs have been involved and some have been exiting these positions.
My plan has been to take a very modest position of 12% long HYG and expand it during this sell-off. None of this is unexpected, and I expect rotation out of Treasuries into risk credit to resume in due course.
@karen (4:14)
LB fancies himself a "jackhammerist"...
(There... I said it for you LB)... :-)
K.,
LB would be happy to bring his jackhammer to your outdoor shower to nail down the argument about the credit markets and examine the recent spread widening before the compression trade ensues in earnest.
Look, I will be gone all week....
CV
Great minds....
@LB (4:22)
LOL
whatever!
JCG is fascinating.. Q3 2010 was down 9 ceents from Q3 2009.. that said they are on track to beat 2007 earnings buy nearly $1 share..
not quite sure how they are pulling this off.. and they have just launched a few losers.. the weekend factory and madewell.com
Karen,
"who has not acknowledge the artificial inflation of the market and assets??"
yes, exactly. this is....like, old news, yah?
What matters today is what instruments are going to be bought on Monday. Tomorrow and Friday are going to be a joke.
is market open on Friday??
oh brother.. Ben, pls, you could have corrected my typos! LOL
oh, and on cue:
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-is-everyone-ignoring-the-1-billion-pound-gorilla-in-the-room-right-now-2010-11
yeah, I don't take it quite to the extreme of not trading the entire week of t-giving but prefer not to touch the controls monday or friday.
I just got a little sick thinking about the insanity that will be Black Friday. Lets hope for a death free season this year while people sprint for shelves.
correction to my 4:39.....wednesday or friday of this week
The Bond Report 11.23.10
A pre-holiday risk-off day in the bond market? Profit taking by HFs sated on QE2 gains? Liquidation by the same HFs who were long EEM and were beaten with a massive stick today? KJ selling high yield bonds from the North Korean SWF? Or was it Big Stevie or his many progeny dumping some junk to raise cash for an escape from Stamford in black helicopters? We shall find out soon enough.
Treasuries really didn't rally much AT ALL, given the impending collapse of Ireland, Portugal and the entire Western hemisphere and KJ posturing atop nuclear warheads aimed at the very Seoul of South Korea. So we are inclined to think this was a bit of risk dumping ahead of the holiday by those bargain hunters who were shopping last time HY was being discarded. We think they will be back when they see the results of the next lousy Treasury auction... if not sooner.
Corpies: LQD 0.05%; AGG 0.10%; JNK -1.39; HYG -1.37;
Govies: TLT 0.50%; IEI 0.14%; TIP 0.04%
Hedgies: TBT -0.92%
We are fading this spread widening trade. We added to our HYG position and we added to our short of the long bond today.
Friday is a mickey mouse half day session.
JOHNNY sits and watches MANDY and KUDLOW, then buys whatever is going up or sells whatever is going down. On the Monday afterwards, whatever happens on Friday is reversed on massive volume.
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