Sunday Evening Post

Good Evening Capitalists,

I wish I had some new and earth shattering wave counts to discuss here. Alas, the S&P 500 is progressing how we sort of envisioned it a few weeks ago when it was very overbought. Those sorts of extreme conditions cannot last and we were do for at least some short term corrective behavior. And, "corrective" is the right term for what we've witnessed from the 1227 peak. Unfortunately, the Wave count suggests several weeks of what should be boring sideways/lower price action into the end of the year.

Weekly Support/Resistance Levels for the S&P 500:

R2: 1219
R1: 1207
S1: 1173
S2: 1158

Took a few moments to look at Gold which suffered some "body blows" in the last several trading days. Weekly Support/Resistance for Gold are:

R1: $1,377
R2: $1 363
S1: $1,341
S2: $1,329

Use the above cite levels at your discretion and risk.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Anecdote:

We spend the weekend in the The Woodlands, TX for a large Holiday Show where my wife was a participant. The entire area was "bustling" and the crowds were buying. It was one of her best shows ever. I'm expecting a strong Christmas season, at least in "these parts"....

Football Thought:

It's an "old saw" that "Good Teams Find Ways to Win while Poor teams find Ways to Lose." This is absolutely TRUE. For an example of this phenomenon, please refer to the Houston Texans performance throughout the years. They're consistently finding new ways to lose games. Gary Kubiak probably won't be fired this year, but I'm certain he'll be making some other team a very good Offensive Coordinator in the next two years.

108 comments:

call me ahab said...

Vince Young-

what a baby- and whiner-

Jeff Fisher has finally had enough-

he (Young) should consider it an honor that he is a starting QB- instead he throws tantrums like a 4 yr old and throws his pads into the stand and leaves the stadium-

because he was pulled due to an injury-

what coach wants to deal with a player like that?

call me ahab said...

CV-

caught your post last thread-

the Giants/Eagles tonight- that's an interesting game on many levels-

more interesting than the Manning/Brady matchup that was getting all the coverage-

as a side note- Woodhead- how tall is this guy-

dude looks like Tiny Tim out there

Andy T said...

Woodhead is tiny tim but he's managing to screw me in FF....

AmenRa said...

Thanks Andy. The weekly 3LB trend is still up even though the SPX closed below its weekly midpoint. It hasn't been able to really get away from the mid so it's on the bears to prove their case. Also it's holding above the monthly 3LB reversal (six more trading days left).

karen said...

evening! that's great news for your wife's business, Andy.. and I know my husband says Austin is thriving.. Not sure if you caught my recent video post of your Governor.. seems as tho all the job creation has been in TX..

http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/15/news/economy/fed_attack/index.htm

Andy T said...

@Karen.

I'm not a big Rick Perry fan....he sort of "inherited" the gig as Governor with Shrub got 'elected' in 2000.

That said, it's difficult to fault anything he said he that interview....

He's got the talking points down pretty well...for sure.

AmenRa said...

Was tonight the "Pick off Manning" night?

Anonymous said...

LOL on the CAD...

cv said...

@Andy/ahab

Woodhead... Funny you should mention "Tiny Tim"...

He was on the queue for a thread I was working on (tomorrow)...

I'll be around later in the afternoon today... busy this morning...

AmenRa said...

Ireland failed to keep their freedom from the IMF. Portugal and Spain will be on bended knee at the IMF soon.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Amen,

Agree completely. Bankers winning and taxpayers losing is now a global phenomenon.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greeces-Government-May-Shut-bloomberg-1839595433.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

Greece's Government May Shut Down on Cash Shortage, High Frequency Says

Bruce in Tennessee said...

It certainly appears that the severity of the global debt crisis is a living entity. That the attempt by many governments to shift the debt burden to, by definition, the individual taxpayer, is not going to work out so well.

I read about the US public deciding they are goinng to spend more this Christmas..I wonder if these things are so...Payroll taxes at the mine are increasing...

karen said...

morning! BloombergNow

Irish Banks Need $6.8 Billion in Cash Immediately, Analysts Say http://ow.ly/3dyuo

Ha! that is less than one day's POMO for Bernanke..

karen said...

gotta love that FXE chart.. something is working despite the bots.

karen said...

TBT at 20 ema support... will it hold? that is a very very big question..

karen said...

"I talked about my new investing sport in which I paddle in front of the biggest wave I can see coming and then I hang on despite the sometimes deafening roar of short-term news flow and uninformed opinion"

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/11/22/i-dont-pick-stocks-stocks-pick-me/

AmenRa said...

Karen

Short week. Brian Sack will be pulling all nighters to try and keep this market up.

Count the number of days from the IMF bailout of Greece to the IMF bailout of Ireland. Divide by two and you have the number of days until the Portugal bailout. IMHO

karen said...

The 'Build America' Debt Bomb

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704648604575621062239887650.html

karen said...

hey... GS.. insider trading fallout??

karen said...

Novell agrees to private-equity buyout valued at $2.2 billion
11/22/2010 08:42:11 AM

(just saw that..)

karen said...

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/11/22/shadow-inventory-of-homes-rising/

karen said...

JCG will post tomorrow after the close now.. darn. : (

AmenRa said...

Karen

Thanks. I was looking for that CoreLogic report on shadow inventory.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704648604575621121479552304.html

The Knee-Weakening Prospects of Europe's Debt

"In response to your Nov. 17 editorial "The Real Euro Danger" highlighting potential concentration risk and the risk of possible solvency concerns for the euro going forward: What concerns me is the lack of urgency regarding the sheer size of Europe's debt.

When you add just the debt of Ireland, U.K., France, Germany and Italy, it is the equivalent of $18 trillion. When you add up the total amount of outstanding debt among European nations it is greater than $26 trillion."

AmenRa said...

Karen

Did you look at the option history of JCG to see which way traders are positioning themselves?

AmenRa said...

This sell off is indicating the POMO has less participation than the last one. Just sayin'.

karen said...

AR, don't know how to read those options but max pain is 36..

Matthew said...

Don't read too much into the signals this week. I generally don't trade this week or the Christmas one.

karen said...

Late mortgage payments rise sharply in 3rd qtr in Northeast; nationwide rate increase slows http://yhoo.it/bXwEEC

Thought you were betting wrong said...

AmenRa - For the last week or so, you have been standing pretty firm in your bearish stance.

I thought the market would have more upward momentem and continue to melt up some more.

I know it has not broken through the monthly 3lb (yet), but it looks like you were right about it continuing down.

Just want to say, good call.

Mangy Mutt

karen said...

cooper thinks 1193 is pivotal...

karen said...

doubt this will EVER happen

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/barrons-putbacks-to-banks-could-be-134-billion/

karen said...

tomorrow is fomc minutes..

AmenRa said...

Mangy Mutt

It's above the monthly 3LB reversal (damn). If it closes the month above 1-1-8-6-6-9 the SPX will have reversed higher. But the weekly is below its mid which indicates weakness. So long term is saying we may go higher but short term is saying not just yet.

AmenRa said...

Karen

1193.39 is the weekly pivot point. :-)

AmenRa said...

Around 90% of Countrywide's mortgages were securitized and they stopped transferring titles to the trusts back in 2005-2005. That means most of the MBSs have no mortgages behind them. Ruh roh.

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/11/22/another-new-high-for-netflix-nflx.html

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/bernanke-defends-qe-fleckenstein-challenges/

karen said...

look at xrt today..

McFearless said...

what up team

today is a POMO right?....and a big one too, about 6x the size of Friday....so what's with the red?

McFearless said...

Bill Fleck. seems to really be pissed off in these interviews about what the Fed is doing.

Good for him. One of the few legit pundits out there who isn't afraid to speak some truth.

karen said...

22.80 on UUP.. 23 next.. (how many days have i been postng that???)

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/diamondback-and-level-global-hedge-funds-raided-wsj-2010-11

karen said...

zerohedge

Level Global Owns 165mm worth of Apple

karen said...

UUP.. look at the pretty reverse h&s! we just gotta take out 23.

karen said...

ForexLive - jNew blog post: Risk aversion rising; AUD gets blasted http://www.forexlive.com/148076/all/risk-aversion-rising-aud-gets-blasted

karen said...

zerohedge - Top 25 holdings of Level Global and Diamondback presented http://bit.ly/9eiiGR

AmenRa said...

Risk is definitely off. The next two larger economies of the EU are on deck for a smackdown (Portugal and Spain). Running to the dollar for safety (ironic isn't it). But now there are developments that will derail the US markets even more so maybe the dollar isn't the best place.

McFearless said...

There could be some nasty news this week, though I'm wondering if it's more the insider trading than it is any nasty EU Zone news, it's been sort of a trend the last couple t-givings, last year was the Dubai episode where they attempted the current version of the Tower of Babel, and the first signs of Greece trouble also hit the news this time last year in a small way at least,... remember the famous line by Jeff Saks to Hugh Hendry this spring ("nobody was even worried about Greece 6 months ago"....Hugh had to remind him that some of us were working six months prior, and were in fact talking about Greece)...and it makes sense we'd get some bad news again as we are still in correction.

Retail appetite for risk is way back on, which also makes sense considering the bearish positions still held on to by commercials according to COT.

Andy said something about expecting a good holiday season, I'm expecting a big one on the + side, the malls here are packed right now, you'd think it's already late December.

John E is going shopping this year...bitchez

cv said...

"But now there are developments that will derail the US markets even more so maybe the dollar isn't the best place."

Silver bitchez!

karen said...

What Good Is Wall Street?
Much of what investment bankers do is socially worthless.
by John Cassidy

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/11/29/101129fa_fact_cassidy#ixzz162H7SUf1

karen said...

I'm still struck by that article I posted last week about people dying with their credit cards maxed out..

Talking with my friend yesterday, an acquaintance of hers recently learned that her husband had $60K in credit card debt.. I said, oh, he probably never plans to pay it off! They have retirement money that could be used but they can't grasp the idea of dipping into that $$$.. makes your head spin, doesn't it?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I think if interest rates continue to rise, albeit slowly, stocks will suffer.

..That's about it.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

If social security is going to be means tested, why would they want to decrease debt? Keep your money in a retirement account past age 70, and take social security from age 62 on!

means tests, britches...erm..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

From CR today...

"The total visible and shadow inventory was 6.3 million units in August, up from 6.1 million a year ago. The total months’ supply of unsold homes was 23 months in August, up from 17 months a year ago. Although it can vary and it depends on the market and real estate cycle, typically a reading of six to seven months is considered normal so the current total months’ supply is roughly three times the normal rate."


...23 months....

Live in my car... looking to buy another IPad said...

B-n-T

Housing and unemployment are going to be Obama's pain in the ass subjects for a while (maybe years)!

karen said...

3 down, ? to go

http://www.businessinsider.com/loch-capital-fbi-raids-a-third-hedge-fund-2010-11

Live in my car... need a bigger car battery to power all my "i" stuff said...

Ya know they're all corrupt!

It's the amount of payoff's that will or will not get you busted... sheesh... even I know that!

karen said...

fxe chart.. 13 below 34, just sayin' trend down.

karen said...

mrtopstep--New Video: THE LONG and SHORT OF THE INDEX MARKETS http://mrtopstep.com/?p=1317

karen said...

gold going off/up.. amazing !

cv said...

@karen

GS under $160

karen said...

"lots of stuff that doesn't make sense in the S&P"
"some strange goings on..."

karen said...

CV, don't I know it! sadly, i missed seeing it at 158 and change.

cv said...

This guy has been pretty good with gold & silver calls...

tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com

cv said...

His basic take is that there will soon be a little double top in this dollar rally...

He kinda sees POMO being used to clamp down on PM's blowing out here as these European countries fail...

So instead of a run back to the dollar (which would typically happen)...

It's sort of coming to the dollar but also there is FEAR in the dollar because of QE2...

When that runs it's course, then the move in PM's will really get going in earnest...

I'm oversimplyfying

karen said...

CV, I did visit the site.. i'm just watching these currencies.. i'm bearish fxe, fxa, and fxc.. thus, I am bearish gold and crude while bullish the dollar..

it is that simple.. and yes, the dollar needs to hold 78 and take out 80 for me to hold that view.

cv said...

He says the rollover will be around 79.50

karen said...

watching the spx on 3 day, ten min for formation of a right shoulder..

karen said...

If you haven't heard.. people are killing people: BreakingNews

Miami man being evicted from condo shoots and kills maintenance worker changing his locks - Miami Herald http://bit.ly/dmPusv

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=173002

karen said...

last week i couldn't look at GM enuf! today, i just looked once : )

cv said...

I was just going to bring up GM...

Then I looked at TSLA 6 month (just for kicks)...

Good Lord!

Anonymous said...

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/spx_9496.html

Anonymous said...

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/es-zb_22.html

karen said...

personally, i'd rather not see 1196 exceeded.. i will wreck my day : )

cv said...

@karen

Here... I'll wreck your day for you...

LULU

Anonymous said...

speaking of 'Nutrition'..

this:
http://www.proteinpower.com/drmike/

was just covered by Kathleen Hays, on BBR

similar POV to:
http://www.westonaprice.org/home-mainmenu-1.html

AAIP

Jennifer said...

Huh...I was just going to post those 99er charts myself! Crafting the perfect Dickensian holidays takes time, so trading's on the back burner this week...or, if I need to make room for the gravy, off in the guest bedroom somewhere. Been an interesting morning already. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Anonymous said...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

CV,

re: DX, and "~79.50"

did we get a 'double-top' @~79.40, on the 17th?

AAIP

Anonymous said...

CV,

as well, esta noche, are you on the 'Bolts, or are ya favoring the Nags?

AAIP

karen said...

lulu does wreck my day..

karen said...

XRT is higher now than it was in 06 and 07..

cv said...

@AAIP

Vegas got thumped yesterday because most of the supported teams covered... PACK, EAGLES, COWBOYS, STEELERS, FALCONS, BUCS, RAVENS, SAINTS...

I think it was a "give back week" (because Vegas has been taking J6P's $$ most of the year)...

This game is 52-48 Denver as we speak... Line has moved from 10 down to 9... So they're trying to lure more $$ on the Chargers...

I think it's less that tho than a hedge on teasers...

9+6 = 15
9-6 = 3 (where a "push" is a loss in a teaser)
9+10 = 19
9-10 = -1

I guess I'll go with the Bolts... (With the thing worrying me being the fact that they play Indy next week)...

Don't be caught looking ahead!

Next week they get Vincent Jackson back too...

karen said...

KeithMcCullough - $BAC looks awful

cv said...

BAC=next Lehman

Anonymous said...

BAC will be the first TBTF to be restructured.

Anonymous said...

CV,

that observation on the 'teasers' is interesting..

something tells me that the Nags are fixin' to get rendered..

Short Elmer's, Glue Supply lookin' Bullish..

AAIP

cv said...

Barney Frank Resumes His Extremely Hypocritial Ways By Calling All Fed Attacks "Extreme Hypocrisy"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/barney-frank-resumes-his-extremely-hypocritial-ways-calling-all-fed-attacks-extreme-hypocris

"The person who is almost singlehandedly responsible for the complete disaster that are today's bankrupt GSEs, somehow succeeds in making America hate him even more"

Anonymous said...

Whalen just got done saying, on BBR, that ~"BAC is in big trouble, no 'bonuses' should be paid at ML, "because the Parent is Insolvent" ..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

"Over the past several decades, no matter which political party has been in power the government has continued to become a larger part of our lives. These days many people are speaking of the "nanny state" that we have created, but the reality is far worse than that. The truth is that the government has become a gluttonous, out of control behemoth that is gobbling up everything in sight and that is attempting to exert full spectrum dominance over our lives. Today, the government seems to have an insatiable hunger to watch us, track us and control us. Now they even want to feel our private parts before we get on an airplane. No matter what politicians we send to Washington D.C., it just seems to get worse and worse. Anyone who still believes that we live in "the land of the free" is completely and totally delusional.

It isn't just in one particular area that all of this government intrusion into our lives is so offensive. What we are witnessing is the government slowly digging its fingers even deeper into our lives in a thousand different ways. Sadly, most Americans see the government as the one who is supposed to take care of them from the cradle to the grave, as the one who is supposed to fix all of the problems in society and as the one who is their ultimate authority.

This is in direct contradiction to the concept of a "limited government" that our Founding Fathers tried so desperately to enshrine in our founding documents. The American people need a big-time wake up call. The following are 8 examples of how the U.S. government is attempting to take even more control over our lives...."

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/full-spectrum-dominance-8-examples-of-how-the-government-is-attempting-to-take-total-control-of-our-food-our-health-our-money-and-even-our-dignity

AAIP

cv said...

@AAIP

Sometimes when there are line movements, you have to see how they are:

1. related to the "action" (volume & side)

2. related to the aggregate schedule (basically - Vegas knew it was taking a risk last week putting a 10 point line on the Ravens-Panthers)... It becomes almost an automatic WHEEL in teaser parlays (so sometimes they'll BAIT the public by dangling it out there)... For example... If you liked... RAVENS - GIANTS, you got smoked because you got 3.5 + 6 = (9.5) on the G-Men (and still lost)...

3. Just do the math and see how either a 6 point (2 team) 10 point (3 team) moves the line... Often it is attached to a "psychological" football number like:

- 3
- 7
- 10
- 14
- 17
- 21
- or PK

karen said...

CV.. hope you bot GS under $160.. it was a no brainer.

karen said...

gap up ten min spx candle.. my day is officially ruined..

AmenRa said...

Karen

Go find the wine you've been saving and drink up :-)

AmenRa said...

FTR the SPX still hasn't taken out the weekly 3LB mid...

cv said...

@karen

100% cash (slowly turning into nickels & silver coins)...

Keep enuf FRN's around to bet of football games & buy beer :-)

Anonymous said...

cv,

those 'Teaser' parlays are a trip..

it's surprising, in a way, that so many peep get them wrong..

also, funny, about Nickels, they are the best deal at the 'Bank'--that are available on a regular basis(for now, anyway)..

AAIP

cv said...

Gotta go peeps...

I'll take the Bolts for (1 unit) tonight (play with the houses money)...

c y'all later!

Leftback said...

LB bot some TBT into the close, and also picked up a little more HYG.

So we are playing yield hog, we are long the spread compression trade, and hedging interest rate risk at the same time. Dividends still on. Not liking the indices that much until the currency/commodity picture becomes clearer, but not bearish. Not liking Treasuries at these levels. Not liking munis or investment grade.

Karen, have you ever experienced spread compression?

AmenRa said...

LB

Subtle LMAO

Leftback said...

It's a fixed income term. Gentlemen prefer bonds...

We are 20% long HYG, 10% short long Ts, 5% long TIP in bonds.
We are 20% long US equities (15% divis, 5% SPY).
45% is cash.

Anonymous said...

can't help but like the fact that the dollar has been making higher lows for a few years while everyone looks for the "top"

Leftback said...

I'm just waiting for Karen's Top to reappear...

...lovely ankles...

ben22 said...

wonder if the I made some money on the reversal today, seems like days like this, when internals favor bears, you get the nice intraday reversals. This correction isn't over yet,.... I'll buy the dip, but lower.

The last push should be fun to watch, I expect it to truncate, orthodox wavers, still on the wrong count, have a newfound confidence that can only be found with a waver, and the economic news is just as Neely said it would be, retail is starting to rediscover an old pal named Risk, and at the perfect time.

ln the meantime we'll all get to enjoy the daily dosage of JA "fundamental" analysis, at least we no longer have to hear that "it's a POMO today"

Apologies that there is no mention of the forward p/e ratio on the S&P in this post, I'll promise to try harder after turkey day.

On another note, not sure if any of you were ever X-Trends readers but after a long break Atilla is back to posting again.

Leftback said...

Just when you thought it was safe to read the blog, it's BACK...

The Bond Report 11.22.10

Today was a risk-off day, as investors sold HY and bought IG, munis and USTs. Spreads were wider across the board, not sharply, but smoothly and gradually, like a very elegant lady uncrossing her legs for a handsome admirer.

Corpies: LQD 0.55%; AGG 0.24%; JNK -0.54%; HYG -0.70%;
Govies: TLT 0.42%; IEI 0.44%; TIP 0.35%
Hedgies: TBT -1.05%

We added to our HY bonds (HYG) and hedged interest rate risk by getting short the long end (TBT). Today was a POMO in the 7-10y range and that trade will begin to unwind at some point this week.

We are long equities - but note that the usual pattern of late has been that stocks are up on Black Friday and the enthusiasm of JOHNNY day trader is met by a sell-off on Monday.

ben22 said...

don't forget your gravy:

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TOiGmhlELXI/AAAAAAAAJN8/bi3XnyeoadU/s1600-h/holiday_thanksgiving%5B2%5D.gif

via Cobra

Anonymous said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/gono/Ireland%20For%20Sale.jpg

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.