Thanksgiving Weekend Edition - NCAA & NFL Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread])
2010 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 50-36-2
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +2
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (-$80)* (do as I "say" not as I do - the REDUX)

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2010 NFL Picks (aggregate): 83-70-5
2010 NFL (unit picks differential): +27
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+2,120)

Gameday/week writeup...

So we finally get a week where the Thursday/Friday games fall on a holiday weekend (and most of you can see these picks - which are utterly "system" based)... If you've been drilling for oil on Saturns moon Titan (because you'd heard that dinosaurs roamed that planet many years ago), then you'll realize that CV's "system" for NCAA is basically.

- Take live home dogs (regardless of what you think)
- Start fading "BCS #1" ranked teams as soon as the rankings come out
- Take Boise State & TCU regardless
- "Go the other way" (in which CV handicaps the Penn State game)
- I had Virginia Tech working for awhile as well, but that's more or less run its course now that they're in the ACC Championship game
Here is how that system works out this week...

WEEK 13 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)

Texas A&M at TEXAS (+3.5) - 1 unit (Thursday Night)
Texas A&M 24 - Texas 17 - (-$110) - Incorrect
Auburn at ALABAMA (-4.5) - 1 unit (Friday Afternoon)
Auburn 28 - Alabama 27 - (-$110) - Incorrect
ARIZONA (+20.5) at Oregon - 1 unit (Friday Evening)
Oregon 48 - Arizona 29 - ($+100) - Correct
BOISE STATE (-14) at Nevada - 0 units (Friday Evening)
Nevada 34 - Boise State 31 - ($-110) - Incorrect
TCU (-43.5) at New Mexico - 1 unit (Saturday)
TCU 66 - New Mexico 17 - (+100) - Correct
MICHIGAN STATE (-1.5) at Penn State - 1 unit (Saturday)
Michigan State 26 - Penn St. 22 - (+100) - Correct
Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - [results] Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: Virginia, San Jose St., South Florida, Stanford, Wisconsin

Gameday thoughts here...

Frankly, I don't like the idea of "fading" what I think is a pretty good Texas A&M squad, but I'll put emotions aside and go with the system... These "Texas" rivalries are often hard fought (this might be a game like the "Nebraska" game for Texas as a way to salvage its season)... Auburn has been under intense scrutiny for quite awhile now due to the Cam Newton scandal... I gotta think things might finally catch up to them here... Boise State, TCU, & Michigan State (vs. Penn State) all work into the same pie this week... Why?... Because Ohio State President Gordon Gee made some asinine comments regarding the BCS (calling the SEC & Big 10 "superior" conferences, and the opponents of Boise State & TCU "the little sisters of the poor"... Guess what dickhead?... You just insulted Oregon State, Utah, ranked Nevada, and Virginia Tech... You might as well have insulted #1 ranked Oregon as well (because Boise State defeated Oregon last year with a team that has returned a large portion of its starters)...

The ironic thing is that in the Big 10... Ohio State, Wisconsin, & Michigan State are all tied atop the standings... Winner of the conference gets an automatic Rose Bowl bid... Here how it stands... All 3 have identical records... Michigan State holds a tiebreak over Wisconsin (who they defeated)... & Wisconsin holds a tiebreak over Ohio State (who they defeated)... Michigan State & Ohio State do not play, so if all 3 win this weekend, Michigan State goes to the Rose Bowl... Happy Capital Fucking One Bowl Ohio State!... Although it probably won't happen that way... Top #10 BCS ranking puts them as an "at large" bid in either Miami, New Orleans, Pasadena, or Tempe... I'm going to laugh my ass off if they wind up in Tempe having to either face Boise State or TCU, and watch those Buckeye "choke artists" do what they do best...

Who said college football wasn't fun? :-)

Results:

Week 13 NCAA Picks (ATS): 7-4-0
Week 13 unit pick differential: +0
Week 13 wager total: (-$30)

(no shoppers were harmed or killed in the making of this video)

FANTASY FOOTBALL

Fantasy Football Week 12 Injury Reports: Quarterbacks


Jimmy Clausen, Panthers
11/27: Will start Sunday.
11/26: Practiced Thursday and is expected to start.
11/25: Jimmy Clausen practiced Wednesday and is expected to start.
11/24: Has a chance to play off a Week 10 concussion. We'll know more details Wednesday.

Chad Henne, Dolphins
11/27: Chad Henne was limited in practice Friday. He'll probably start.
11/26: Chad Henne practiced Thursday and reportedly looked good.
11/24: Chad Henne was on the practice field for the Dolphins on Monday. His status is up in the air.

Colt McCoy, Browns
11/25: Colt McCoy has a high ankle sprain and will be out 4-6 weeks. Jake Delhomme will start Sunday.
11/24: Colt McCoy may have suffered a high ankle sprain. We'll know more Wednesday.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Injury Reports: Running Backs

Joseph Addai, Colts
11/27: Expected to miss Sunday's game.
11/25: Joseph Addai was limited in practice Wednesday.
11/24: Joseph Addai is likely out for Week 12.

Jahvid Best, Lions
11/25: Jahvid Best was limited in practice Wednesday.
11/24: Jahvid Best had a very limited practice Tuesday, and did not look at all. He'll probably be out.

Reggie Bush, Saints
11/26: Pro Football Talk reports that Reggie Bush will play.
11/25: Reggie Bush is listed as questionable.
11/24: Sean Payton said Reggie Bush is likely to play on Thanksgiving.

Mike Hart, Colts
11/27: Missed practice Friday. It'll be shocking if he plays.
11/25: Mike Hart is likely out for Week 12.

Felix Jones, Cowboys
11/26: Felix Jones is expected to play.
11/25: Felix Jones is listed as questionable.
11/24: Felix Jones missed practice Tuesday with a hip injury.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers
11/26: Ruled out for Sunday's game.
11/25: Ryan Mathews missed practice Wednesday.
11/24: Norv Turner told the media that Ryan Mathews is likely to miss Sunday's game.

Clinton Portis, Redskins
11/25: Placed on injured reserve.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
11/27: Practiced fully Friday and will start against the Browns.
11/25: Jonathan Stewart practiced Wednesday and is expected to start.

Pierre Thomas, Saints
11/25: Ruled out for Thursday's game.
11/24: Pierre Thomas missed Tuesday's practice. It doesn't appear as though he'll play.

Ryan Torain, Redskins
11/26: Ryan Torain has been ruled out for Sunday's game.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Injury Reports: Wide Receivers

Kenny Britt, Titans
11/24: Kenny Britt is out for Sunday's game.

Austin Collie, Colts
11/24: Austin Collie has been ruled out for Sunday's game.

Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
11/25: Ruled out for Thursday's game.
11/24: Jerricho Cotchery is likely out for Thursday's game.

Patrick Crayton, Chargers
11/24: Patrick Crayton will be out a couple of weeks with a wrist injury.

Malcom Floyd, Chargers
11/27: Malcom Floyd had a limited practice Friday. He may play, but don't use him; his hamstring could really cause problems.
11/25: Malcom Floyd missed practice Wednesday.
11/24: Malcom Floyd injured his hamstring on Monday night. He could play, but won't see much practice time.

Brandon Marshall, Dolphins
11/27: Missed practice yet again Friday. Listed as doubtful.
11/26: Brandon Marshall missed practice again Thursday.
11/25: Brandon Marshall missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury. He's not expected to play.

Santana Moss, Redskins
11/27: Santana Moss is a surprise game-time decision with a hamstring injury.

Hakeem Nicks, Giants
11/24: Hakeem Nicks is out for three weeks.

Sidney Rice, Vikings
11/27: Sidney Rice practiced Friday and will likely play Sunday.
11/26: Sidney Rice missed practice Thursday. If he can't practice Friday, put him on your bench.

Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars
11/27: Was limited in practice Friday. He'll be a game-time decision.
11/26: Had a limited practice Thursday. Still not expected to play.
11/25: Missed practice Wednesday. Unlikely to play.
11/24: Mike Sims-Walker is likely out for Sunday's game.

Steve Smith, Giants
11/24: Steve Smith is out Sunday.

Mike Williams, Seahawks
11/27: Missed practice again Friday.
11/25: Mike Williams missed practice Wednesday.
11/24: Mike Williams could miss Sunday's game with a foot injury.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Injury Reports: Tight Ends, Key Defensive Players

Owen Daniels, Texans
11/27: Owen Daniels has been ruled out for Sunday's game.
11/25: Hope you're sitting down for this: Owen Daniels missed practice Wednesday.

Antonio Gates, Chargers
11/27: Missed practice Friday and will likely be out for Sunday's game.
11/26: Antonio Gates practiced Thursday. He's still likely to be a game-time decision.
11/25: Antonio Gates missed practice Wednesday.
11/24: The San Diego Union-Tribune says Antonio Gates is "no guarantee" to play at Indianapolis this Sunday night.

Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
11/27: Practiced fully on Thursday and Friday.
11/25: Tony Moeaki had a limited practice Wednesday.

Jeremy Shockey, Saints
11/25: Jeremy Shockey is out.
11/24: Jeremy Shockey was limited in practice Tuesday.

Ben Watson, Browns
11/27: Ben Watson had a limited practice Thursday.
11/25: Ben Watson missed practice Wednesday. He's unlikely to play.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Injury Reports: DST, Key Defensive Players

Houston Texans Defense
11/27: Houston Texans defense out for the season PUP list (physically unable to perform)

NFL Preview: Game write-ups to be posted before time slot kickoffs on each game throughout weekend)

THANKSGIVING DAY GAMES


New England Patriots (8-2) at Detroit Lions (2-8)
Line: Patriots by 6.5
Incorrect

Ever wonder why the Detroit Lions always play on Thanksgiving?... It's to remind you to "give thanks"... No matter how bad your life may get at times... It could NEVER be as bad as if you were a Lions fan... So give thanks...

The first televised NFL game was in 1934 and featured the Detroit Lions vs. the Chicago Bears...


Results of Thanksgiving Day pro football games in history (a tradition which was started prior to the turn of the century when the first Thanksgiving Day game featured Princeton vs. Yale)...


Patriots vs. Lions - OK, finally to kick off some game analysis here... Before we get into the "X"'s & "O"'s consider some BIDness aspects of this... Vegas, like any other indistry, operates for profit... This is NOT a philanthropic endeavor... The deeper one gets into the season, the deeper the "opinions" of the public begin to be forged (as to who is invincible, and who sucks)... The PATRIOTS have been, for the most part, a franchise that has carried, the invincible baton for almost a decade... The Lions? Well, to describe the franchise as "also rans" in that same decade would be an understatement...

But as CV always likes to say... "Never let facts get in the way of your opinions of things" [that's a SNARK, by the way]...

It is very difficult to win ANY football game in the NFL (on any week)... It gets tougher when you have little game preparation, and/or have distractions... It gets harder yet when your team is playing on a short week & is forced to travel (Sunday to Thursday - which means you basically only have one day of game prep to heal wounds & gameplan)... It gets harder yet when the game you must motivate yourself for is against a team that nobody takes seriously, and for YOU, it happens to be sandwiched in between two games of UTTER IMPORTANCE (as the Patriots are here with games between the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday & a showdown on MNF, on a national stage, with the New York Jets, next week)...

Now let's imagine that your team isn't necessarily that stellar on the road (Patriots 3-2, losing contests to the Jets & Browns)... Or, if your defense is only ranked in the bottom 3rd of the NFL, and you're going against a team, the Lions, who despite their poor record, tend to put up a lot of points on offense... Let's imagine that you're the Patriots, and rely heavily on Tom Brady to manage your team to wins, but he is listed as "questionable" for this game...

I don't know folks... I must admit that the Lions have a pretty crappy record on Thanksgiving Day... & I'll also venture to say that Bill Belichick will come up with a way to take away the Lions best weapon (Megatron)... I'll also admit that Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker, Deion Branch, & "The Law Firm" will be able to move the chains at will off a crappy Lions defense...

But 6.5 points? I'm thinking I'll take them...

After Thanksgiving is BLACK FRIDAY... All the local retailers like Best Buy, Target, Sears, & Wal-Mart will be offering "specials" to lure stampeding hoardes of Americans who are flush with cash because they no longer pay their mortgages or credit cards, and because Ben Bernanke runs POMO operations 24/7 which makes what's left of their 401k's with a fat balance because "deep thinkers" like TWSWB keep telling them that this is a "typical recovery"...

So don't cha think that Vegas would like first dibs at all that RISK OFF/SURE THING cash?... The public is siding about 80-20 with the Patriots here... CV will go with the LIONS for (1 unit)... 

New Orleans Saints (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
Line: Saints by 3.5
CV leaning to small unit play on Saints - Incorrect

(the Dallas Cowboys, an NFL franchize started in 1960, made it's debut in 1966 on Thanksgiving day)


Cincinnati Bengals (2-8) at New York Jets (8-2)
Line: Jets by 8.5
CV leaning to small unit play on Jets (Correct)

(the NFL Network added a 3rd Thanksgiving Day game in 2006... This was mostly due to the fact that the NFL Network "announcers" are the worst in the business... The idea was to force Americans to listen to these chumps as they called a football game, and barf up all the food they'd just consumed... That way they would be finally ready for that slice of pumpkin pie & a nightcap)...

EARLY GAMES


Minnesota Vikings (3-7) at Washington Redskins (5-5) (1:00 EST)
Line: Redskins by 1

This is one of those games that you kind of need to toss away the "X"'s & "O"'s and try to find other angles to the game... Neither team has played up to its potential this year (one wonders how the Redskins have managed to win 5 games)... So it's hard to go for or against a team that on some given afternoon may find some motivation and put things together...

Emotionally, the Vikings are DONE now... They can kiss this (and probably many future seasons goodbye)... The Brett Favre saga will be over after this year, and "Chilly" is gone (as CV had predicted a few weeks ago)...

Teams in this spot don't GENERALLY do well, but I emphasize the term GENERALLY (because the Cowboys trashed that logic a few weeks ago against the Giants)... What you have here is a mostly veteran team (so that is actually a plus)... With no pressure, many might be playing a more relaxed brand of football... Teams who have failed to cover in 5 straight games have an improved chance of covering games as the streak continues... I'll go with the VIKINGS here for (1 unit)...

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) at Buffalo Bills (2-8) (1:00 EST)
Line: Steelers by 6.5

Fred Jackson fantasy owners have been very pleased the past two weeks... Unfortunately, the Steelers defense is a little stingier against the run than the Lions, or the Bengals (who quit last week - as CV predicted they would)... The Steelers limited red hot Darren McFadden to 14 yards on 10 carries last week...

Without a running game, which will put Buffalo in 3rd & longs, Ryan Fitzpatrick will have to do this himself... This is where the Steelers like to "tee off"... Fitzpatrick IS a mobile QB, but his biggest weapon this season has been Steve Johnson (who ought to be mostly erased in this game if RF is running for his life away from James Harrison)...

The Steelers should be able to both run and pass with ease during this game as the Bills defense is the second coming of the Houston Texans D... The main thing I worry about here would be a "back door" cover type scenario... The Steelers have to travel to Baltimore next week to play the arch rival Ravens... This may be a "look ahead" scenario where they close up shop early and then try and give some players some rest... That would leave the door open for a the Bills to close the gap late in the game, bring heartbreak to the 80%+ money the public has laid on the Steelers... I'll still say STEELERS for (0 units)... 

Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks (5-5) at Houston Texans (4-6) (1:00 EST)
Line: Texans by 6.5

This line has been all over the place (so check final line before gametime)... There have been so many cross currents... There's the spat between Vince Young & Jeff Fisher (with the Titans going with a 3rd string QB)... and hardly anybody has said anything about Randy Moss during this whole debacle...

Ordinarily I'd go right to picking the Texans in this case, but they have their own problems (closing out games)... So how can a team who cannot even find a way to win at the end of a game be expected to cover a touchdown spread (against anyone)?

I have only two solid things I can point to...

1. Arian Foster seems to be able to run against any defense
2. The Houston Texans (as always) will finish 8-8... (so that means 4-2 for the rest of the season, right?)

Problem is, even if they win this... can they cover the spread?... TEXANS for (0 units)...

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) at New York Football Giants (6-4) (1:00 EST)
Line: Giants by 7

Remember last year the Giants started 5-0 and everybody thought they were going to repeat as Super Bowl Champs?... Then they fell apart and started giving up 40+ points a game and finished at the bottom of the standings... This year, they were ready to fire Tom Coughlin... Then they were the best team in the NFC, now they're struggling again...

CV has not gotten caught up in the doomsday, or euphoria... To me, the Giants are just an above average team, that can be exceptional on days where they can get their pass rush heated up, and Eli Manning clicking...

The "problem" that the Jaguars present to the Giants is that they have MJD in the backfield, and David Garrard is a strong physical QB... In many ways, it's similar to facing the Steelers offense (in style)... 

Eli Manning is probably going to have to come out of his slump and find a way to get the ball to a depleted corps of receivers (Nicks & Smith both being out, and Manningham inconsistent)... I think the Giants can find a way to win this game (as their backs are against the wall in their division)... But I'm dubious about covering the pointspread... JAGUARS for (0 units)... 


Carolina Panthers (1-9) at Cleveland Browns (3-7) (1:00 EST)
Line: Browns by 10

I've been saying for a few weeks now that rookie Colt McCoy has performed a lot better in the NFL than I'd ever expected... Unfortunately, the Browns won't have him to operate the offense this week because he went down with an ankle sprain in the last series vs. Jacksonville last week (which consequently cost me 4 units)... The Panthers have managed only 15 sacks this season (so it may not matter who plays QB for the Browns - even if it's ex Panther fumble & interception artist QB Jake Delhomme...
Sometimes it's a good angle to take a QB going against his ex-team on the first try (it worked for Brett Favre last year & Donovan McNabb this year)... There ought to be a Jake Delhomme clause(n) on that one though, because I doubt I'd LAY double digits with Jake Delhomme even if his ex-team was a jayvee squad from the powder puff football league...

There are several "wagering dynamics" that favor the Panthers here... Teams coming off 3 straight road losses often cover as road dogs... The Browns are 2digit favorites off a loss... You're going with a 34-61 proposition since 2002 on that dynamic...

I'll take the PANTHERS for (4 units)...

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Atlanta Falcons (7-3) (1:00 EST)
Line: Falcons by 2

This is probably the "game of the week"... Instead of talking about NEGATIVES (as is often the "edge" with handicapping many games)... This one is full of positives (on both sides)...

It is now public knowledge that the Falcons are 18-1 in the Georgia Dome with Matty Ice as QB... This year he's beat the both the (7-3) Bucs & Ravens, which could be counted on as quality wins... But remember that the Bucs are still struggling to establish their identity as contenders... The Ravens? They were coming off a short week (as road team), a situation most NFL teams hate... And the Falcons needed some help from the refs to gift that win... Earlier in the year, the lowly 49ers almost knocked off the Falcons in the dome (only to have an ugly interception tossed by Matt Ryan knocked out of the hands of Nate Allen giving the Falcons a final chance... In Matt Ryan's first two years at QB, he played only ONE team that would even go on to make the playoffs, and that was the 2008 Panthers, led by the formerly mentioned pathetic Jake Delhomme)...

I'm just saying that one needs to kick the tires a little...

The Packers are getting healthier, and seem to be at the point where they're getting on a roll... You can say that some of the "distractions" (like playing the Vikings) are behind them now... They're squarely focused on winning the division, and having a good enough WON/LOSS record to get them some home field advantages in the playoffs... For that, they're tied with the Eagles, Falcons, Saints, & Bears... They've already beaten the Eagles, but the bottom line is... They'd much rather the road go thru Lambeau Field than the Superdome, the Georgia Dome, Lincoln Financial Field, or Soldier Field...

I'm going with the momentum here and will take the PACKERS for (4 units)...

GREY CUP (Canadian Football League)

Saskatechewan Roughriders vs. Montreal Alhouettes (6:30 EST)
Line: Alhouettes by 3.5

How can a bunch of "cheese eating surrender monkeys" (the French Canadian team from Montreal) be favored over ANYONE not named the Texas Longhorns or Oklahoma State Cowboys?... Actually, this has not been a stellar week for the RODEO circuit... The Boise State BRONCOS, the Texas LONGHORNS, the Oklahoma State COWBOYS, and the Dallas COWBOYS all went down to brutal defeats...

All may not be lost though... The South Florida BULLS, the SMU MUSTANGS, & the Marshall THUNDERING HERD. all came thru...

OK, so let's split the difference and take the ROUGHRIDERS and the points for (1 unit)... (are there 4 point field goals in CFL?
LATE GAMES


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3) (4:15 EST)
Line: Ravens by 7.5

Jeez - while I was typing out the (7-3) records above, I neglected to type in the Bucs (and that hellhole stadium, "the sombrero" that features a pirate ship)...

Look, I don't want to diss the Bucs here, but when you start taliking about Packers, Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Bears etc. somebody has to be the odd man out... When you're playing a pick-up game and choosing sides (like the NHL is going to do this year for the all star game)... SOMEBODY has to get picked last...

I hate laying points with the Ravens (when they host the Steelers in a week)... But I'll go ahead and do it simply because the public seems to have a similar amount of trepidation... RAVENS for (1 unit)...

Philadelphia Dog Killers (7-3) at Chicago Bears (7-3) (4:15 EST)
Line: Dog Killers by 3

I refuse to sit here and add to the bonfire of accolades that are being thrown at Michael Vick this year... To me, this whole situation "feels" very much like when the Miami Dolphins came out with the wildcat offense a few years ago... They (it) was unstoppable for a few weeks... Then, teams finally caught on, and were able to gameplan against it... Now, Miami hardly runs the wildcat, and don't do very well with it anyway...

Philadelphia isn't running a WILDCAT here... But the logic is still the same... You're working against something that's unpredictable... When faced with that, your first goal needs to be to TAKE AWAY the thing that's hurting you the most... Chris Johnson is a perfect example of this... Teams have found a way to focus on not letting him beat them big, then deal with the rest...

The Giants were actually having some success against Vick last week (with pressure)... The Bears can do the same thing with Julius Peppers, and using Brian Urlacher as a "spy" in the middle of the field... Urlacher is fast, and has good football instincts...

I think the bears can hang with the Eagles here, but Jay Cutler is going to have to come up with quick decisions and keep the Eagles blitz on its heels... If there's anything that can keep a blitz happy team guessing, it's a team that runs screen options very well (which is what Mike Martz does)...

While the Bears are also perfectly capable of choking... I'm going to go with the idea that they've been playing an improved brand of football these past few weeks... BEARS for (2 units)...

Miami Dolphins (5-5) at Oakland Raiders (5-5) (4:04 EST)
Line: Raiders by 3

CV was right last week in telling everyone not to count on Jason Campbell... OK, so maybe the clock has struck midnight and the Raiders are back to being pumpkins... Or maybe they'll step it up a little here, realize they're still in contention in the division with a 5-5 record... I just don't like LAYING points with any Raider team until they return to the team in the foto below... DOLPHINS for (1 unit)...


Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5) (4:05 EST)
Line: Chiefs by 2

I'd like to see how the Early Games play out (and the dynamic of Vegas vs. the public) before I make a call on this game...

I'd tend to favor the Seahawks (who are a great home team) a little here, and want to fade the Chiefs (who stuggle putting it together on the road)... I'll take the SEAHAWKS for (1 unit), and maybe bump that later on...

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Denver Broncos (3-7) (4:15 EST)
Line: Broncos by 3.5


SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL


San Diego Chargers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4) (8:25 EST)
Line: Colts by 2.5
CV is leaning to high unit play on Chargers

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL


San Francisco 49ers (3-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-7) (8:35 EST)
Line: 49ers by 1
CV is leaning to zero unit play on Cardinals





60 comments:

CV said...

Happy Thanksgiving folks!

call me ahab said...

my running backs have their work cut out for them this week-

looking for some possible upsets today (Detroit and Dallas pulling out wins?)

my memory is a bit foggy- but it isn't it usually 2 NFL games on Thanksgiving?

Happy Thanksgiving to all and their families

Andy T said...

@CV,

My "system" is to think about the "toughest" trade out there. And, taking that Shitty, crappy, perennially overrated Texas team is the toughest bet on the board.

I must take Texas....

Andy T said...

Obama outines moral justification for Turkey Pardon

Pretty funny.

H/T Thor for that.

CV said...

@Andy T (10:27)

On that note... It reminds me... (of the "minstrel tune from the TALE OF SIR ROBIN link on Tuesday)...

South Korea’s Defense Chief Resigns in Wake of Attack

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/26/world/asia/26korea.html

"When danger reared it's ugly head
He bravely turned his tail & fled"

LOL

CV said...

@ahab

"Technically" you're probably correct...

IOW - There are (2) NFL games on Thanksgiving...

...and then, they'll play this thing called "The Bengals vs. the Jets" (in which T.O. & "85" will try to get off REVIS ISLAND)... With the professor & Mary Ann rounding out the cast...

So I think that might classify as a sitcom... :-)

Anonymous said...

! HaPpY ThAnKsGiViNg EvErYbOdY !

What's better than a good meal with family and friends and some country music to boot!

AmenRa said...

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Remember EU markets are open...

karen said...

maybe one of you can make sense of this:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/the-fed-is-saying-one-thing-but-doing-something-very-different/

Andy T said...

@Karen.

Pretty dense post there. Will try to think about it more tomorrow.

We've got two families coming over...

I'm about to be elbow deep in Turducken, ham, green bean casserole and mash potatoes...

Not a good time to think about the velocity of money supply.

Anonymous said...

Happy Thanksgiving to all and their families

x2
~~

tho, UNM will, prob., get trounced 72-3, I'll take those pins (+43.5)

the 1/2 point, to 3 1/2, might be huge, though, I'll lay the 3.5 to t.u.

and, Cowboys (to win) and the Lions (at least, to cover) ..

AAIP

karen,

if it's of interest, I responded to the Post @ TBP..

call me ahab said...

Karen-

Hoffer makes a good observation- all that easy no risk money used to keep a bid under stocks-

also- I wonder if all the excess reserves will come into play when the banks are again expected to realize losses on all their non-performing loans-

(and as an aside- why is it the Fed's job to determine what the value of assets should be?)

call me ahab said...

well . . .looks like my little experiment with Hill didn't work out too well

AmenRa said...

DXY high 80.34, EURUSD low 1.3238, Gold futures -0.92%, Silver futures -3.26%. Futures for S&P, Dow, Nasdaq down -0.99%, -0.81%, -0.90% respectively. Heard a rumor that Portugal is being enticed to get a bailout from the IMF.

AmenRa said...

re: Portugal

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aMfE16xDALkQ
Portugal Says EU Can’t Force Governments to Accept Rescue Aid

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said European Union governments can’t impose a bailout on his country even as speculation mounts that Portugal will eventually have to ask for one.

“There are those who think that the best way to preserve the stability of the euro is to push and force the countries that at this moment have been more under the floodlight to that aid,” Teixeira dos Santos told Jornal de Noticias in an interview. The comments, made yesterday, were confirmed by the finance ministry. “But that is not the vision or the political option of the countries that are involved.”

karen said...

morning all!! thanks for comments on that article... seeing red : )

oh, and I wore the red pair for thanksgiving yesterday : )

AmenRa said...

Red pair? Shoes or...?

karen said...

those shoes in my avatar, laughing.

AmenRa said...

Did you read that article by Charles Hugh Smith on how retail sales make up a small part of GDP? Here's the link: http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov10/last-christmas11-10.html

karen said...

excellent, AR.. hadn't seen that.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/11/my-favorite-cnbc-morning-each-year.html

karen said...

my focus this morning, aside from emailing Thanksgiving fotos, is GOLD!!!

karen said...

hey. look at FXA! fxe not pretty either..

AmenRa said...

Karen

China increased margin requirements on commodities. See the zerohedge article; http://tinyurl.com/2cejkt3

karen said...

AR, thanks for that.. didn't know.. hmm, gold has to be a little boosted by this N&S Korea crisis, tho..

AmenRa said...

Karen

The margin requirement changes seem to last for a week and then the trend continues.

karen said...

ZH is a tad irksome with their "price suppression" theme on raising margin requirements!! Please, if they had raised (or even adhered to) prudent lending standards, the housing bubble wouldn't have happened..

Do they want a bubble in crude, copper, gold, silver, etc??? It does no good.. and will be ugly when it pops..

karen said...

oh, i forgot to relay the latest gold anecdote.. as you may remember, my nail girl brought up gold on my previous appt two weeks ago.. asking me about it because her sister wanted to buy some. So, Wednesday, when I saw her again, she said, OH, btw, my sister did buy some gold.. thru a broker or a gold specialist.. She was sketchy on the details but the sister did not buy physical gold.. and my bet is she opened a margin account similar to what Monex offers..

karen said...

EEM has just about given back ALL of Wednesday's leap.

karen said...

I bet you my first born son that XRT comes back to earth on Monday...

AmenRa said...

EEM may have a weekly 3LB reversal down (a close below 45.43).

karen said...

this is absolutely fascinating!!

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/11/bubble-trouble.html

karen said...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/interesting-history-of-gld/

karen said...

been watching rev h&s on 2 day, 5 min dto..

karen said...

P&F on BAC is 9.5

Mel said...

@Karen

Although I ran tours for the Eagles, Linda Ronstadt, Jackson Brown, Loggins and Messina, Boz Scaggs, George Clinton and P-Funk among others...my first pro gig was with Seals & Crofts and England Dan (Dan Seals) & John Ford Coley. (Not to be confused with my musical tastes...by the way;-).

S&C's manager (and my boss) was a woman by the name of Marcia Day. Two weeks into the gig (Jan/74)...she invites her two daughters over for tea to meet me. Ten minutes in, Billie Lee (who was married to Dash Crofts at the time) pipes up...

Mom, I hope you're not planning on marrying someone younger than your daughters...again!

Imagine my chagrin and the bind I was in: the same one so many women have become embroiled with an older male employer. ( I was 20...she claimed to be 46)

Needless to say...we went around in circles for over a year before the shit hit the fan...hell hath no fury etc.

Now take a look at the following pics...anybody see a resemblance?

http://books.google.com/books?id=FEUEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PT7&lpg=PT7&dq=marcia+day+billboard&source=bl&ots=0byo0y25nN&sig=HqyLkRmlHf0wluCy6HQtRe4jaeQ&hl=en&ei=PN3vTMG1KtCAnAeCp_DkCg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=8&ved=0CD0Q6AEwBw#v=onepage&q&f=false

http://books.google.com/books?id=FEUEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PT6&lpg=PT6&dq=marcia+day+billboard&source=bl&ots=0byo0y25nN&sig=4Q0IqBRysFexFWkt2EU6zm5v-x0&hl=en&ei=PN3vTMG1KtCAnAeCp_DkCg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBIQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false

Thirty six years later...and I'm still going "ouch"...and still resembling Daniel Craig ;-). Have a great Thanksgiving weekend!

karen said...

Mel! Thank you for sharing ALL of that! Wow!

karen said...

Just How Crappy Is Liquidity In EUR/USD?
By Jamie Coleman || November 26, 2010 at 17:07 GMT

A 50 mln euro order just moved it 9 pips…
I’d be very reluctant to have anything but a small core position in this market as it is only going to get whippier….

karen said...

another good one: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/there-is-no-food-inflation-the-bls-made-sure-of-that/

Mel said...

@Karen

Au contraire...thanks for all your trading input...at which I'm frankly...an idiot. And stick to the ankles...before I have a PTSD episode ;-)

karen said...

"But skeptics argue GLD could become a Godzilla-like beast if the gold rally reverses sharply. They say its buying has already turbo-charged gold prices, exposing the market, and legions of small investors, to a rapid fall. Smaller copycat funds add to the risk.

"We tell our clients to watch out for it, because it's there, and it's a real risk," said Jeffrey Christian, founder of CPM Group, which advises major investors worldwide on gold."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703628204575618602535514506.html

karen said...

that WSJ article on GLD is annoying as heck.. "But after a 10-year, one-way ride,..." Ha! GLD falling from $100 to $68 was hardly a one way ride.. and anyone that has been in gold since 2001, as I have, knows that it has hardly been a one-way ride.. this is hindsight and a twisted perception.

Anonymous said...

Nice to see Auburn getting killed. Wud love to see Boise St or TCU in that championship game.

That said, I'm very nervous for Boise tonight against the Wolfpack.

-AT

Good luck with that said...

Andy - I am watching the Auburn game too. Boise State has had an outstanding football program for years, this is the closest they have ever gotten to National Champions, but I seriously doubt no matter what they do this year they will make it to the game.

However if they do go undefeated this year, they have most of their players coming back, plus their QB Kellen Moore will have his little bro, Kirby as a wide reciever, they work well together, they took their high school football team to two state championships.

Hopefully next year they will get the respect they deserve.

Mutt

Anonymous said...

thought this

http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html

linked to @ TBP, was a good article..

the point of 'jurisdictional arbitrage' is Key..

AAIP

also, I like Boise St., think they've been unfairly overlooked..

tho, tonight, I'd like to see Nevada win, at least Cover..

the 'Lions', if it's news to anyone, suck (:

Andy T said...

'Bama did a terrific job of giving that game away....geez.

I didn't realize how porous the Auburn secondary could be...that's a pretty glaring weakness that will prevent them from winning a national title.

Andy T said...

That was tough friggin' loss for Boise last night. I knew it would be a tough game there in Reno. Those fans are small in numbers, but they're nuts. My mom and some of her friends were there in support of the Wolfpack. Big win for them.

The Boise St. kicker probably needs to be put on suicide watch for the next few weeks after that performance.

Heart Breaker said...

Andy - That game was a real heart breaker. After that 70 yard pass with 2 seconds left, I was like YES!!!.

But the kicker missed twice, unbelievable.

As sad and disappointing as that loss was, that just goes to show, sometime, things just wont go our way no matter how well prepared we are. Just like last night Boise state defense twice stripped the ball only to have it land squarly in a Nevada players hands.

Oh well...

Mutt

Anonymous said...

speaking of the PK for Boise St., did he, really, even miss?

I mean, they weren't 'center-stripe' shots, for sure, though, the announcers were making comment about the 'short' uprights, and they looked pretty close..(not, necessarily, to say were "Good"

but, one those looked liked they would "shtoinked" through -- yes? no?

"....that loss was, that just goes to show, sometime, things just wont go our way no matter how well prepared we are. Just like last night Boise state defense twice stripped the ball only to have it land squarly in a Nevada players hands..."-MM

x2

I thought, for sure, due to 'Clock Management', that UoN had given that Game away at the End of 4th Q., though, alas..
~~

and, flippin' 'Tide giving up that Game, in Tuscaloosa, was sad..

AAIP

CV said...

Get ROLLed TIDE... (how pathetic)... Andy's point (6:59) may be prescient...

CV on serious leaf duty this weekend...

Also... had to make a run to the dump (not for the leaves for crying out loud, they're mulch)... Anyway, my point is... there were A LOT of people at the dump (anecdote)...

Not sure what to make of that (I'd expected them all to be at the mall)... I stopped by Wal Mart too... Not AS MANY as I'd expected...

Weird...

Anonymous said...

CV,

re: Dump

the 'Home-Growed' "Movement" has been catching on around here..

more peeps into 'Gardening', and DIY 'Landscaping' -- that sort of thing..

at our 'Dump', one can pick up 'Mulch', and composted Soils..does yours offer such?

AAIP

ben22 said...

bama and auburn...


what a great game that was

Andy T said...

MEH,

Yeah, the "miss" at the end of the game...I'm not even sure it was actually a missed field goal. When I first saw it, I thought it was a good one...though barely so. Thought it was one of those that just gets inside but because of the TV angle and the fact the ball was ascending, makes it look no good.

Really would have loved to have had a camera angle under the goal post. One of those smaller older stadiums, though...didn't have that camera shot.

I had a really bad feeling on the last kick. That dude spent WAAAAYYY too much time on he field getting ready for that one...the refs and the "replay booth" deal iced the young man for sure.

I feel really bad for him--that's a moment in time he'll never ever live down. Idaho is a small state...

The whole game had a 'weird' feel because of the crowd, the stadium, etc....it seemed "dark and cold" out there...

I'm not sure what would be a more difficult place to play?

a) Tuscaloosa, AL in the middle of a nice day with a 100,000 folks screaming in an electric atmosphere on National Television; or,

b) Some small stadium, in the dark cold of Reno, NV with 30,000 crazies, playing against a team who's only goal ALL YEAR LONG was to beat you on that late night.

Love College Football.

Anonymous said...

AT,

re: the PK: "...I feel really bad for him--that's a moment in time he'll never ever live down. Idaho is a small state..."

yes, no doubt. though, hopefully, he won't be made into their version of 'Norwood'..

he had a prolific career before those two kicks..

and, b) seems like it would be a tougher deal..

we'll see if LSU can pull it out, against the Razorbacks..

and, maybe, the Turtles can hold on and put down the (Eastern) Wolfpack..

tho, past that, here's rooting for the Chokin' Chickens, in the SEC 'Title' Game..

AAIP

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-25/hungary-follows-argentina-in-pension-fund-ultimatum-nightmare-for-some.html

Hungary is giving its citizens an ultimatum: move your private-pension fund assets to the state or lose your state pension.

Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy announced the policy yesterday, escalating a government drive to bring 3 trillion forint ($14.6 billion) of privately managed pension assets under state control to reduce the budget deficit and public debt. Workers who opt against returning to the state system stand to lose 70 percent of their pension claim.

“This is effectively a nationalization of private pension funds,” David Nemeth, an economist at ING Groep NV in Budapest, said in a phone interview. “It’s the nightmare scenario.”

...Canary in the US coal mine?

CV said...

@AAIP

Yes on the mulch... (for a cost - it's not free)...

CV said...

@AAIP

"chokin' chickens"... LOL

I'm wondering... We all know "dog fighting" is illegal...

I'm guessing "cockfights" are also illegal...

Which begs the question... Why is the South Carolina school mascot the symbol of an animal used in an illegal sport?

Just saying!

CV said...

Plus...

When USC (South Carolina) plays USC (Southern California)...

It's the COCKS vs. the TROJANS!

Anonymous said...

CV,

nice pick on the USF-Miami Game, I was surprised that Miami lost that one..

I guess the 'Admin.' was, as well..
~~

alas, LSU wasn't able to come back..

also, anyone see the OU-OSU game?

with that, what's with 'Division Ties' being settled by BCS ranking? Is it, just, me, or, is that bogus?

AAIP

Leftback said...

Dearest K. and Inwestor Chaps,

Hot off the presses. 5.8% interest rate for Irish bailout loan.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/olli-rehn-no-haircuts-senior-bondholders

More later

xxx

"LB"

AmenRa said...

Saw a reference to this paper by George Akerloff and Paul Romer: http://www.signallake.com/innovation/Looting1993.pdf - Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit

Mentioned back in 1993 that CDS would be the cause of the next financial crisis.

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