Morning Audibles

On my thread of October 5th... I published a chart of a pattern that I felt was emerging, and worth considering... That morning, the market gapped up in a huge way (& naturally explained away that it was due to comments from THE BEARD that the Fed's actions were helping the economy)... In other realms, it was explained by ex'Mouseketeers doing their version of Beachball Blanket Bingo...

As for Bernanke (taking the baton from Tepper)... Well, sure there hoss... Feds actions are surely helping commodity prices (at the expense of the dollar)... They're helping the PD's... But they're not helping J6P too much... Anyway, for a hoot, here's my thread from that day...




Buried at the bottom of that thread (that nobody reads because it causes headaches), was a little "theory" I was working on... It seemed to me that the market was in STALL mode... That the ever reaching upwards prices were a product of TIME, rather than PRICE... That what the market was actually looking for was to move beyond certain momentum indicators before it seriously wanted to entertain any sort of meaningful correction...

Here was my chart... And the annotations from that day (or you can take the scenic route, and search back for the thread):


Plain as day, is the suggestion that we might be looking for 12 days of TIME to basically shuffle the moviola off the left side of the page...

12 days later...


Here we are... And here's what the chart looks like (updated)...



There happen to be some other "discovered" elements that fit nicely into the pattern that I've since discovered... Those include:

- The ability to place FIBO markers in the chart (based on the eventual HIGH)
- The fact that that HIGH actually came at the MONTHLY 3LB reversal level of 1186 (very close)
- The "look" of the RSI divergence waves
- The "look" of new wedge patterns
- The # of days trading above or below the new wedge patterns
- The fact that October 19th emerged as a 1.618 extension from the April 26th High to the July 1st low...

and other things...

What does this all tell me?

Well... FRANKLY nothing more than what it is... But the patterns do, 12 days later, still conform to a fairly tight (and perhaps TRADEABLE) range to observe, or use as guideposts...

What am I expecting?

Yesterday, in the comment section, I'd said that today (WEDNESDAY) is a POMO day... I don't want to get into the discussion of whether POMO days go up or down (net-net)... But I did put a chart up about POMO yesterday that shows the effect... over time...


So let's say for s**ts & giggles that, at minimum, POMO has some "mitigating" influence... If you're willing to make that leap, my premise could be that the market makes a vain attempt (today) to regroup from yesterdays bloodbath (helped along by POMO)... But when those operations are over, and/or BEFORE they're over as the bots figure out it's futile, then the short term trend that was started yesterday may resume...

At this point, I'm anticipating a conclusion to arrive somewhere around the tip of that UNFINISHED triangle (around 1130), but I'm not going to stick my neck out for exact numbers... Timeframe? By Friday... We'll see what happens from there (or - if this view is even right AT ALL)...

In the end... It's all just my explanation as to why I've been STANDING AROUND for most of October, instead of getting wrapped up in elections, or, or or... WTFE




spy - 1 min

spy 60 min

spy 1 min

203 comments:

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cv said...

@Jenn (other thread)

I'd go with the gum that turns their teeth purple... or the "stinky" gum...

but that's just me :-)

cv said...

JK...

I actually always just go with what I like (in case there are leftovers)...

SNICKERS BITCHEZ!

Jennifer said...

Sadly, Snickers are now a forbidden candy, both at school and in our home, due to those pesky life-threatening nut allergies. I really miss Reeses peanut butter cups, personally. I never thought I would be a member of the group that has to carry Epi pens everywhere I go, but that's the breaks. No pecan-crusted tilapia for us!

Jennifer said...

Looks like my one underwater short, CLR, is going to open up down more than $1.50. I think that means I'm back in the green now on every single one of my positions...usually this is an excellent signal that I should take profits and get out of Dodge for a while.

Jennifer said...

THis weekend I'm planning on making Jello molds in the shape of hearts and brains with my little nerds.

Jennifer said...

Okay...stops are set. Lots going on in my other world today so I won't be around much cluttering up the board with off topic comments. Have a good day everyone!

cv said...

@Jenn

EPI pens for those BAD SNICKERS BARS...

Sheesh...

Excuse me (and feel free to berate me because I'm not a parent)... But when I was a kid, I seriously don't EVER remember one kid having a nut allergy...

First time I'd ever heard of it was when I found my nephew had the allergy...

But so what... I was allergic to strawberries when I was a kid... Guess what? I liked strawberries and kept eating them anyway (and got rashes)...

Then one day, the rashes stopped coming... It's been strawberries & cream ever since... Hell - I even GROW strawberries now...

We used to:

Ride on handlebars on bikes (few scrapes & loose teeth from that)

Run around barefoot (stepping on necks of coke bottles causes a lot of blood, I can assure you)

Ride tricycles with no helmets (most don't do it off the end of a staircase, like CV, tho & end up with stiches under the chin)

Ride in the back of flatbed trucks (no seatbelts, or dog forbid, child seats)...

Look - I'm not saying it's ALL A JOKE, but you know... Homo sapiens have walked on this earth for how many millions of years (under a lot more peril than what's present today)...

I mean, what's next?

Here's a MONEY MAKER for all you "broke" people out there...

Come up with a MARKETING SCHEME that convinces that your kid needs to wear protective goggles because of the HARMFUL influence of flat panel & 3D television waves"...

Retire rich!

call me ahab said...

did anyone catch that Whalen clip I posted a day or two ago (from Denniger's site)-

dude thinks the USG will take over the big banks- at least all the foreclosures- nationalization was mentioned-

pretty dire sounding

cv said...

Please don't read this if you want to keep your sanity...

Wall Street Bailout Returns 8.2% Profit Beating Treasury Bonds

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-20/bailout-of-wall-street-returns-8-2-profit-to-taxpayers-beating-treasuries.html

call me ahab said...

CV @ 9:05-

it's funny you say that- I tell my kids exactly that all the time- when they tell me some friend has some sort of allergy-

don't remember anyone w/ any allergies- had one kid in Junior High who had to sit out the runs in gym due to asthma- only person I can even think of-

I asked a pediatrician (I was doing a loan for) the question- "what's with all the childhood allergies?"-

his response is that kids aren't allowed to develop immunities-

and there it is

Jennifer said...

CV -- I'm with you on all the ridiculous things that parents are forced to do w/ kids these days. I have 3 young kids -- I think it would be almost impossible to own any vehicle other than a minivan due to the car seat/restraint requirements for children. Don't get me wrong -- I'm all for safety -- but, I'm required to own a bigger, more expensive car, which uses more gas, to accomodate the car seats the law requires me to have for my kids (and what about car-pooling? the risk averse nature of two lawyers in the house combined with all the car seat requirements pretty much means that I hardly ever let my kids drive with other parents and absolutely detest driving other peoples' kids anywhere out of the total terror that something bad will happen.) Heck, my husband makes me drive the girl babysitters who don't have their own cars home to avoid any legal issues there. But -- the peanut thing is real and serious. I don't know why we have it since I love peanut butter, but I have 2 kids who are deathly allergic and a third whose sole source of protein many days comes from peanut butter. The thing about the nut allergy is that it doesn't usually cause a rash (I wouldn't care about that) but the whole airway swelling/death issue requires some extra vigilance. Okay -- need to get the little guy ready for preschool now.

Jennifer said...

Ahab -- I understand the immunity issue, but as you might guess, I spend much more time on line and watching CNBC than I do cleaning, so we have had lots of opportunity to develop our immunities here!

cv said...

@ahab

"his response is that kids aren't allowed to develop immunities"...

Great! So amongst all the other POSITIVE things that the USA has developed...

Our kids are all becoming Michael Jackson "Boy in the plastic bubbles"...

Bernanke blows 'em - & parents stick their kids in 'em...

Wonder what DARWIN would have to say...?

72bat said...

@ ahab
"his response is that kids aren't allowed to develop immunities- and there it is"
exactamundo - challenge/response - unchallenged immune systems

my sister kept her home sanitized/sterilized after my niece was born and the child was always getting sick, had hives and rashes all the time, sleep disorders, you name it.

imho kids should eat healthy doses of dirt from the time they are old enough to crawl around and put everything in sight in their mouths for a "taste test".

cv said...

@Jenn

well - you could cut out the CNBC part...

Developing an IMMUNITY to that would be a good thing...

See... That's one channel that CV is "allergic" to...

call me ahab said...

Jennifer-

one word- maid:-)!

you seem to have too much going on to have to mess around w/ dust bunnies


CV-

the immunity thing- as far as the Pediatrician- was about 10 years ago- so going on memory was rampant use of antibiotics-

which keeps young children from developing natural immunities-

at least that's how I remember the conversation

cv said...

@ahab

Too bad they can't come up with an antibiotic to deal with STUPIDITY...

Although, I suspect that most would develop an an immunity to that antibiotic as well...

It would end up a waste of research dollars... OWEbama could use his TARP slush fund elsewhere...

call me ahab said...

imho kids should eat healthy doses of dirt from the time they are old enough to crawl around and put everything in sight in their mouths for a "taste test".

72b- I think there is something to that-

and dirt- not so bad- I remember it fondly

karen said...

morning.. look at the % ups on the indices .66 .68 .67
more bot trading.. whatever.

cv said...

pomo working like a charm thus far...

karen said...

YCS is tempting me.. and i'm cursing the aussie today..

karen said...

Hedgeye

$COF, shorting - Josh Steiner making an important call this morning that COF has the most incremental mortgage putback liability.

McFearless said...

I think the basis of the argument about POMO should now center around when the funds actually become available for use, it's not day of due to settlement logistics.

5 years of POMO history, only one of which was a down market, is not statistically significant enough to draw any conclusions.

as an aside, I think many people misunderstand the retail investors true feelings about bonds, it's not as simle as fund flows.

cv said...

I'm going to go out on a limb tho and say that the SPY level hit at 9:45 is an excellent candidate for HOD...

karen said...

i believe cof is another of paulson's huge holdings..

McFearless said...

As for POMO being the "cause" today.

I have a better idea, via Cobra:

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TL4I1qBDMcI/AAAAAAAAI50/pVUyo9vC1WQ/s1600-h/1%5B2%5D.png

"One trick today, 33 out of 51 times (65%) a green day the next day after a Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9)"

McFearless said...

tepper had it as of 6/30.

McFearless said...

COF, that is.

cv said...

@mcf (9:48)

I'll then say that what may be in effect is the "marginal retail difference"...

IOW - we all know that volumes have dropped considerably... but that being said, since they have, the ONLY participants may skew to retail that actually BELIEVES in pomo...

the Harry Wangers of the world...

That could account for a marginal skew (that, over time, adds up)...

But I'd agree that the sampling size isn't large enough to draw firm conclusions...

It's kind of like "THE ELECTIONS" are going to keep a bid under the market...

I presented 2 dozen charts (about a month ago) to prove that's not true... But if enough JOKERS want to believe it's true this time around, then it's hard to fight against...

Anonymous said...

@CV:

I can't believe the kind of mindless journalism they did in the article you linked.

"The government has earned $25.2 billion on its investment of $309 billion in banks and insurance companies, an 8.2 percent return over two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That beat U.S. Treasuries, high-yield savings accounts, money- market funds and certificates of deposit."

I'm pretty sure that is incorrect for the following reasons:

1. U.S. Treasuries did better than 8.2 percent over the mentioned 2 year period (I know because I owned them and the capital gains + interest was better than 8.2 percent over my holding period). The only way it is accurate is if they are talking about the front end of the curve, which the Fed had already pushed down prior to the bailout.

2. Also, I'm pretty sure that TARP was larger than $309 billion. I seem to recall that it was $700 billion. If I only calculate gains on my winners, I can show stellar profits. I want to know what the projected returns are on the other $400 billion that hasn't been [won't be] paid back.

McFearless said...

ahab,

didn't catch the Whalen clip but I read a paper of his maybe two weeks ago, said the same thing in the paper. I like CW, seems like a very bright guy, but not many of his calls have been very good.

72bat said...

@ anon
not sold on those figures either, lotsa spin going on there. otoh, pretty sure i read recently (will try to find it) that of the whole $700 bn of tarp authorized, a signficant amount never disbursed

call me ahab said...

and here's some fun facts from the mortgage world- and how new USG requirements and RESPA laws affect the real world-

I take a loan- husband and wife- husband's credit score blows-

so- take the husband off the deal- and look at the wife alone-

question- is the husband and wife a separate loan that I need to deny?

with the wife alone being a new deal- but here's another caveat-

wife can't qualify w/ her income alone- so I am now adding her Mother as a non-occupying co-borrower-

so is the wife alone another deal I need to deny so we comply w/ new RESPA laws?

mind blowing- not even sure I have the answer-

in the past a loan wasn't a loan until I turned it in to be underwritten-

now- credit report and property address = application- even if I am just trying to shake it around and see what works-

ridiculous

cv said...

I really want to fade this move this morning...

Yesterday, I hedged right at (what were), the morning lows...

We're just slightly above that level right now, but I want to get back short again...

One thing that I want to be careful of is... I've seen kind of a pomo "echo" to tale place after 2PM recently...

I may have to STEP INTO this trade incrementally...

I'm really getting convinced, though, that we're going to make a fast move down to around 1130... What I like MOST about it, is that if I'm wrong, I can do it with tight stops...

It'll prove itself wrong in short order...

call me ahab said...

b22-

Re Whalen- yes- he has been very negative banks

cv said...

@anon

The "media blitz" is in full effect right now to make it look like OWEBamas economic agenda was and is on the right track...

So as always...

Truth? "We don't need no stinkin' truth!"

karen said...

if uup doesn't hold 22.45 i'm gonna have a fit.

AmenRa said...

CV

ESPN + NFL Network = little to no political ads :-)

cv said...

@72bat (9:57)

Just call it what it IS and (will ALWAYS) should never be...

A "slush fund"...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bu3FuEiopJ0

They need to "get the LED out"

cv said...

@Amen (10:08)

Amen!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCP_KYLiZZQ

call me ahab said...

gotta roll-

mortgage world beckons

72bat said...

part of team macro-man's take on the mortgage crisis:
"...households just kept leveraging at unsustainable rates and have a lot to do. Of course, the amount of deleveraging is determined by how much of the financial innovation over the past 30yrs has permanently affected the velocity of money, and how much of that is gone forever more. TMM can see four potential scenarios..."

"4. But TMM think there is another scenario, that will be music to the Gold Bugs' ears. Prior to the 1971 Smithsonian agreement, the Gold Exchange Standard effectively limited credit extension and the velocity of money. One of the more conspiracy-related extensions of the current chatter regarding a global agreement on currencies is that the QE enacted by the Fed will eventually become a permanent part of their balance sheet. The argument goes that policymakers want Gold to go up to $2500 at which point the Gold on the Fed's balance sheet will be re-valued, and the currency backed by 1/3rd Gold as part of a basket, i.e. - the monetary system moves back to something like it was pre-1971. Now under the rigidities of such a monetary system, it might be expected that the sustainable ratio would have to fall to the pre-1971 trend (pink line), by something like 40%. Of course, as a result of the QE being permanent, much of this adjustment will have been made by the denominator of the equation, rather than the numerator...
...and then TMM took off their Tin Foil Beanies..."

cv said...

@ahab

Give me a $1 mil (no doc) teaser rate on a half mil house...

am I in? am I in?

karen said...

mrtopstep - $SPX #futures #options - nov 1200 calls are being offered now. were bot yesterday.

72bat said...

Track the Stimulus
"Started after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the rescue of AIG, the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) ended on September 30, 2010 when Congress decided not to extend the 2-year authorization for the program."
"By September 30, 2010 the TARP had disbursed over $388 billion of the $475 billion finally allocated to it. Banks have repaid $192 billion already, and the government has earned $30 billion in the form of interest and the sale of securities (warrants, preferred and common shares) that it purchased as part of the Capital Purchase Program (CPP)"

cv said...

@72

so fine... even if that's the case (in truth - not just hidden accounting)...

Why isn't that money being returned to the taxpayers (as originally promised)?

Why does it still exist as "a fund"?

Anonymous said...

I can't wait to hear how much they will make on the $180 billion in loans and capital investment in AIG + all of the money that went to GM and the UAW. Oh, and let's not forget about Maiden Lane. I guess if you move your bad investments off balance sheet (and onto the Federal Reserve), you look pretty successful.

Hey, come to think of it, they did go with the good bank/bad bank scenario. The Federal Reserve is the bad bank.

cv said...

"I'm just going to hold on to this a little bit longer people... you know... in case I NEED IT... Go back to your football and Dancing with Bristol Palin... I'll probably end up BLOWING IT ALL on one last party on the eve of the 2012 elections... To celebrate how GREAT my Administration was..."

McFearless said...

ahab,

man, good luck with that mtg. case, your job is probably more frustrating than mine is lately.

72bat said...

cv - anon -
just reporting the "facts" as to the disbursements
couldn't agree more that tarp funds were authorized for specific, limited purpose. believe there also was language in the original legislation that re-paid funds specifically had to be applied to reducing the national debt.
yet multiple congress critters have said from time to time "why not re-direct unused tarp funds or use repaid tarp funds for this or that or the other?"

cv said...

yeah... "why not"...

It's the CONgresses money... not ours...

and some wonder why there are "tea-parties"

cv said...

Unfortunately... The CANDIDATES who want to represent the teapartiers are all just a bunch of caricature nutbags...

Is this a great country, or what?

karen said...

oh, yeah, this rally makes sense.. (cursing BB's destruction of the dollar.) deja vu seesaw days.. up 100, down 100, up 100, down 100.. that always ends well, not.

72bat said...

re foreclosure gate, mish has this quote today

"The Fed, PIMCO & Blackrock vs Bank of America, who exactly am I supposed to be rooting for here?"

similar to me watching a browns-ravens game and wishing: is there any way it could be arranged that they could both lose?

McFearless said...

yeah....load up on those puts directly AFTER a down day...
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

karen said...

here, this will make your day:

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2010/10/bill-miller-best-time-to-invest-since-early-1980s.html

(i haven't watched it but imagine i prefer Tepper's reasoning..)

karen said...

bat @ 10:44, LOL!!

cv said...

In the middle of watching sports (during the "time-outs", and such), I flip around to see what a Chris Matthews, or somebody is ranting and raving about...

The latest theme seems to be to take all the NUTBAGS like Christine O'Donnell, put them front and center, and make it appear that ANY conservative opinion...

EVEN IF ONE'S CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS ONLY WITH REGARDS TO FISCAL POLICY

...is that of Christine O'Donnell

So it doesn't matter if you're just someone who doesn't like a government who shoves programs down your throat, and then tells you later how much you're going to have to pony up for it...

No... Instead, it means that you're "anti-constitution" (and can't understand it)... or a religious zealot...

For LIBERALS... People are sure quick to paint one dimensional profiles of people who simply oppose higher debts & deficits...

McFearless said...

yesterday we re-explored goog, that chart doesn't look so bearish....aapl otoh, again, via Cobra, guy is a wealth of charts:

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TL5SjWffRzI/AAAAAAAAI6s/Qp_H3ceamFo/s1600-h/AAPLandChiOsc%5B2%5D.png

72bat said...

cv -
not all - one blue-dog here

cv said...

@karen

You better not be jumping on a bandwagon against my RAVENS!

karen said...

mrtopstep

chatter = george C. [09:47:13 AM]: hearing big corporate buyer of eur and also a medley story saying 500 billion in qe over 6 months.....

cv said...

I'm still sticking to my trading theme here...

A little sloppy, but not broken yet... (POMO)...

cv said...

500 billion over 6 months...

ROR

Oh well, I heard it was $1 trillion over 12 months, so I guess there are some REVISIONS going on...

RMFAO...

McFearless said...

Bill Miller proved without a shadow of a doubt that he will ride long through any bear market, no matter how much money his clients lose, so who cares what he says, unless you subscribe to the always long and strong is best for the long run school of thought.

this was the guy that said in his 1Q 08 letter to investors that the 'worst was over' yet offered no timeline for what that actually meant. How about this pearl of wisdom in his 2Q 2008 letter to investors:

"It is obvious stock prices will be higher in the future than they are now"

come on...this was THE largest shareholder of countrywide financial in 2008, doubling down on his losing position, which is like trading 101, and even after BAC made offer to buy he was insisting countrywide could survive on their own.

"What you have is still the nation's largest mortgage originator and the largest mortgage servicer with a $1.5 trillion portfolio that's easily salable," he says. "The housing market is going to get better. When it does, Countrywide will be in a great position because so much of the competition has disappeared."

I could go on and on...but whats the point. Not to mention, dude rocks a serious comb over....embrace the bald buddy.

Andy T said...

Unfortunately the DXY bounce was "abc" in nature....probably will lead to more sideways congestion here...maybe a triangle

McFearless said...

nice chart here via yelnick:

http://yelnick.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c563953ef01348853b832970c-popup

McFearless said...

oh good AT, I haven't seen enough triangles this year...

cv said...

new chart in thread

From my perspective... These POMO activities have had the effect of turning TRIANGLES into PRICE CHANNELS...

That's why I've taken to watching the momentum indicators (RSI & MACD), on these days...

This morning... there was a wedge that should have expired by now... Instead, there was no break off of it because it managed to form a PRICE channel...

That's the ECHO, I've been talking about... At this point, I'd suppose we could hang around and do nothing until 2PM... and see where it goes from there...

OR... watch for a break of the WEDGE in the RSI...

I'm a little messed up on these AH prints right now because that FLASH CRASH the other day disrupted all the prints and made them unreadable...

Think it was intentional?

karen said...

New low in DRV.. UFB..

karen said...

Chet, can you redo that chart to include 118.09?! JK, JK..

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/10/20/bearish-sentiment-sinks-to-a-five-month-low.html

cv said...

@karen

actually (because I'm looking at this in real time)...

118.09 "fits"

The pattern isn't broken yet...

karen said...

HYG:LQD says this rally isn't real.. well, in a manner of speaking.. perhaps short-lived is more accurate..

karen said...

UUP off the mat!

McFearless said...

karen, since you like bespoke...peep this:

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TL5Sh_wG7YI/AAAAAAAAI6c/mTwekiuSlc8/s1600-h/IBMER%5B2%5D.png

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/239b1134-db85-11df-ae99-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

The strength of the euro is no accident
"Earlier this year, the euro was sold as a proxy for a variety of ailments in the eurozone. However, as we argued then and now, the euro will not only prevail, but triumph over the US dollar in the medium to long-term."

Jennifer said...

From the "real" world: at the grocery store, I overheard 2 older male employees talking about how great the foreclosure moratorium is because it "really buys them some extra time..." two homes in my neighborhood have campaign signs up in their yards reading "New People"...and the 5 min ES chart has a read bearish wedge look to it with some negative divergence to boot...getting some puts for a daytrade here at 1180.

I-Man said...

Piece of shit dollar...

Jennifer said...

Re: eating dirt. I had a friend in college who wrote her senior thesis on the condition that makes some pregnant women crave dirt. Maybe that's what I did wrong...not enough prenatal dirt.

cv said...

@mcf

great... but it's currently on a 4-RED streak...

karen said...

Ben, that was fantastically fun info : )
So I just did an IBM with SPX overlay... near perfect correlation!
And IBM peaked on Monday.

karen said...

you simply cannot believe DRV.. what in the heck.. someone explain it pls! okay, in know, i see REITS going to the mopn.. NLY near 52 week high, for example..

karen said...

mopn = moon

Jennifer said...

Karen -- any weird storms creating problems with electrical supply in socal today? I get a live feed service out of LA that froze up 10 min ago...very annoying.

karen said...

I guess we can only say that IBM barely made a 4% down move on its earnings report tho..

karen said...

we are having thunderstorms! just some drizzle for me in san clemente at present, however.. i'm about 90 miles south of LA

Jennifer said...

Okay, that put purchase was clearly a bad move...WTF?

Jennifer said...

Frontrunning the beige book?

I-Man said...

@ Pro Gris

I-Man has scheduled Hussman into this afternoon's reading.

All is not lost... lost not is all.

I-Man said...

What is "frontrunning"?

I-Man said...

Just kidding...

I'll alert you all to the snark...

:0

cv said...

@jennifer

echo.... (see what happens after 2pm)

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/socgens-albert-edwards-says-the-us-public-is-about-to-revolt-2010-10

$42 million now on food stamps..

cv said...

@Amen

other possibility is that they try to take 3 knocks at 1186...

cv said...

Too bad they can't buy AAPL stock with their food stamps...

Hey! It's a fruit isn't it?

Jennifer said...

I often find myself writing "AAPL juice" on the grocery list.

cv said...

AAPL "juice" = all the vig in AAPL stock since $80...

karen said...

alaidi

$DXY dead-cat bounce but 8 more lives left. Don't forget 1.6 in $GBPUSD is a classic double top

cv said...

@karen

don't forget that 1576 in the SPX is a classic double top... :-)

jk

cv said...

@Jenn

Awwww NUTS!

Get the EPI pen ready, cause this is what CV is going to make over the weekend!

http://www.kitchendaily.com/recipe/pumpkin-cheesecake-with-honeyed-walnuts-150117

AmenRa said...

CV

I kind of figured there would be a few more shots at the reversal price. I don't care if they close above it today. It's whether they can close above it at the end of the month. I do get the feeling a large firm will get spooked before FOMC and bail.

cv said...

@Amen

8 more FIBO days until the...

DRUMROLL

Elections!

karen said...

PIMCO - Clarida: Central banks’ pre-crisis consensus on inflation-targeting monetary policy misread the implications of the Shadow Banking System.

cv said...

This is kind of like handicapping an OPEX week...

I'm still sticking to my call in the thread this morning until it gets broken down & busted...

It's still working...

Fireworks start after 2PM (good or bad)...

cv said...

@karen

CORRECTION: (It should read)

"Central banks’ pre-crisis consensus on EVERYTHING misread the implications of EVERYTHING..."

there... fixed it...

cv said...

@Amen

This from ZH...

"Today's very remarkable analysis from Albert Edwards presents a stunning spin on the China-US Nash Equilibrium, concluding that wholesale tariffs with China are now inevitable: "If another round of credit-fueled investment is about to be unleashed onto a global economy, already on the verge of deflation" it will simply not be tolerated. Watch the trade data closely. Watch the US unemployment rate closely. The US public is on the verge of revolt which is increasing likely to end in across-the-board tariffs." Why has the SocGen strategist come to this conclusion? Simple - he now believes that "China is becoming a malevolent influence (my words) on the global economy and strong action is necessary." As to who gets to buy US bonds should China start a boycott or outright dumping? Who else: "Why, Mr Bernanke is just waiting for his chance."

---

Weren't you & I just talking about that yesterday?

I'm glad Albert Edwards reads this blog...

cv said...

lame ducks bitchez!

Hell... If Oregon LOSES a football game and gives up its #1 ranking in the BCS, consider it a bout of Socioeconomics...

AmenRa said...

CV

You did read that China has halted exports of rare earth minerals to the US? Expect prices to skyrocket and R&D to find new minerals for their products.

karen said...

alaidi

Reuters flash story of US arms package for SaudArbia DEJAVUE from 2008 just in case Saudi thinking of removing its USD peg

Geithner said...

I believe in a strong dollar.

This time I really, really mean it.

karen said...

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/bookkeeping-selling-spy-calls.html

This rally has exceeded my expectations - I was hoping for S&P 1180 "at some point" in the next few days to sell the SPY Calls I bought just hours ago. Already the S&P 500 has surged past yesterday's intraday highs - again, surprising. POMO Arigato Mr. Roboto.

AmenRa said...

Why do I also get the feeling that the market will crash in the AM on Nov 3rd? Then the FOMC comes out with QE2 at $2 trillion over 12 months. The SPX then rips the bears open and engorges on their entrails. On Nov 4 the snowball begins rolling downhill.

karen said...

HousingWire

CMBS unpaid balances reach $62.19 billion, CRE CDO delinquencies up http://goo.gl/fb/jR2R8

and drv at new low!

AmenRa said...

Market makes new high but TICKS doesn't. PC ratio still above 1. TRIN holding above 1.12.

S&P
Issues A/D 7.30
Volume A/D 2.07

NYSE
Issues A/D 3.89
Volume A/D 3.23

cv said...

@Amen

I did read that RARE EARTH article...

I was all ready to go with the RARE EARTH "I Know I'm Losing You" thread... But had other ideas in the cue...

Speaking of IN THE CUE...

If you haven't checked... BLOGGER is not taking image uploads this evening for a few hours starting at 5PM...

So you'd better either get AMEN's CORNER in early (with the charts uploaded), or we might be without anything tonight...

I gotta go around 4PM... and won't be around until after 10PM...

cv said...

@karen

CMBS unpaid balances reach $62.19 billion, CRE CDO delinquencies up... and drv at new low!"

It's the NEW NORMAL...

Didn't you get the memo?

karen said...

Nic has some great charts up.. if spx 1182.change doesn't hold..

karen said...

seriously, drv down over 9% !!

karen said...

4thHorsePress

We've been a little remiss on the apocalyptic news of late, but don't say we didn't warn you if the sun explodes http://bit.ly/9Ydmzj

LOL!!

karen said...

Convertbond

Stock market is close to new highs and the largest bank in the country is making new 52 week lows, something has to give $BAC

cv said...

Well if anybody gives a FF what CV's charts say (which I'm absolutely convinced nobody does)...

Then... if you're a glutton for boredom...

new thread in chart

scenario still in tact...

Now I'm going to go over to

- alaidi
- bespoke
- yelnick
- bill miller

and see what all their charts say (because mine are clearly wrong_...

karen said...

five min to beige book!

karen said...

LOVE that chart CV.. seriously.. the neg divergence is a thrill.. my only thrill at the moment, laughing..

McFearless said...

CV,

back in the day I used to try and trade macd and rsi all the time, had a few winners but more often than not I burned myself.

thanks though man, I'm going to link your charts on several other sites right now.

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/october-beige-book-2010-10

karen said...

oh, dear.. maybe not so much QE now..?

DL said...

I noticed that, yesterday, some guy posted the following at 1:36 P.M.:

“Probably re-test 1184 within the next couple of days”


That guy doesn’t look so dumb at this point.

karen said...

mrtopstep

New Market Commentary: Top Notch Calls Attention to Continuation Trendline http://mrtopstep.com/?p=793

karen said...

well, that was confusing.. danny on aug 24?

cv said...

@McF

It's not that I use them all the time...

But the market is hardly giving any other signals at the moment...

EWI? Sure, I like the guidelines, but everyone from Neely to Andy to yourself are just saying it's triangle after triangle...

My FAVORITE thing, actually, will be when the VIX does a touch of the lower BB's on a WEEKLY chart... We're close...

1186 is the monthly 3lb reversal...

The market is pinned up here with nowhere to go without a correction (even if it only lasts a day or two)...

That's why I'm on the RSI bandwagon at the moment...

The FIBO days factors don't hurt either...

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong... at least I know where my stops are (and what I'm looking for)...

DL said...

"The market is pinned up here with nowhere to go without a correction (even if it only lasts a day or two)"

Yeah, I think so also.

cv said...

@DL

Did we hit 1184 while I wasn't looking?

DL said...

CV,

Hey, ya want 100% accuracy?

karen said...

all i want 1160. and all i want.

McFearless said...

CV,

on the weekly vix/lower bb's....how many days before the April top did it do that...no chart pulled up right now...did it do it before April top?

DL said...

K @ 2:16

You've certainly learned to lower your sights.

cv said...

@DL

"Hey, ya want 100% accuracy?"

Umm... ask karen...

cv said...

@mcF

it was very close... I'll have to look it up...

The thing is... we still haven't pierced the lower bb's (weekly) on that...

So TECHNICALLY that indicator is not yet triggered...

However, I came up with a tweak on that logic... I found that when the upper band of the weekly BB's dipped below 30, then THAT could be a trigger as well... From that standpoint, a correction could come at any moment...

But in this case, I'd be expecting some 1-2 day event where the VIX spiked up near 30 for 2 days or so...

Anyway... I'll look that other metric up...

DL said...

This rally is not at the technical/sentiment
extremes it reached in April. My betting is that we're not going to get there during the next few weeks (but I'll adjust if I'm wrong about that).

McFearless said...

and CV, the reason I ask about VIX is because it's getting eerily similar on a lot of fronts to april, I imagine if we close up on the week sentiment will match/eclipse the april high sentiment...consider that's a bullish reading on stocks above 90%....also consider that never happened prior to summer 2007.

total conviction?

it would seem so. Let the big C wave begin.

AmenRa said...

Wow. An actual double top on the 5-min SPX at 1182.53. Maybe I should use 1-1-8-2-5-3 just to keep the algos guessing.

cv said...

@McF

I just checked...

It ACTUALLY didn't pierce (APRIL) the lower BB's on that occasion (but it was about as close to piercing as it was this week)...

The two previous times it did pierce were:

Last October (karens top)...

In January, approaching 1150...

Both times, the VERY NEXT WEEKLY candle was tall & white... Also, on BOTH of those occasions, the upper BB line had just dipped below 30...

The upper BB dipped below 30 this week...

So here we are basically...

That's what I see, but you better go check to confirm yourself (in case I'm in error)...

McFearless said...

CV,

as long as you see it on paper, I trust you.

cv said...

see...

at this point, it's everyone's foregone conclusion that SPX is going to go ahead and just close that 1184.71 gap...

right?

cv said...

@mcf

Oh no!... you said "ON PAPER"

cv said...

lol

I don't even have a dog in this fight yet because I haven't made a move...

But it feels like it's geting so close, I'm a little nervous...

Pride at stake :-)

McFearless said...

Neely just put out a zoom in of his count, i don't get it, that's all i can say, but he's still looking for 1200 before his wave 3 is even over.....

cv said...

It just keeps stringing along SIDEWAYS...

The model isn't broken yet, it's just getting pushed forward...

Gee... where have we heard that before?

karen said...

you can get the latest topstep video here.. it was Tim:

http://mrtopstep.com/category/video/

Jennifer said...

Over at KD's there is some stuff about a CFTC judge...my question is, why did the complaining judge wait his entire career to raise the complaint? Wuss.

cv said...

@McF

The one thing reason that I can't get on board with 1200 just yet (not overall - just NOW) is that we're 7 trading days from the end of the month...

I'm still a little "pinned" on the logic of the 1186 monthly 3lb reversal...

Now granted... 1200 is only about a percent (and change from 1186), which can happen in 7 minutes (let alone 7 DAYS)...

But I'm guessing that we don't CLOSE the month over 1186... Just a guess...

So for me it would be easier to correct FIRST, then retrace back over 7 days to challenge 1186 from this direction...

I keep thinking about July... All that was needed was to CLOSE July under 1030, and we'd have had a monthly confirmation (of the reversal down)...

What happened?

July 1st printed down at 1010 (though the FUTURES were all the way down at 1000)...

We got all that on July 1st, and the market never looked back... 30 points past the "paydirt line"...

So a little of what I'm thinking here is that we do the same thing... Finish just under 1186... Do a quick 30 point jerk up to 1216/1220 to start November, then SELLOFF (post QE2 announcement - and dare I say "post elections" - just so Obama can tell Americans what schmucks they were for tossing out the incumbents)...

So pick your poison...

1. Hang in a 6 point range for 7 days?
2. Quick Flash correction, then bounce back up to kill a few days?
3. Something else?

Anyway - those are the ideas in my head right now (aside from technicals)...

mcHAPPY said...

"This rally is not at the technical/sentiment
extremes it reached in April. My betting is that we're not going to get there during the next few weeks (but I'll adjust if I'm wrong about that)."

The sentiment indicators EWI uses for their STU and in EWT/EWFF each month are all at extremes. Some of those extremes are even higher than April and 2007.

The US dollar is at extremes not seen even at the absolute low.

karen said...

do you guys want to see a lot of red? look at candlechart o $bkx over the last six months.. it is an unbelievable sight.

karen said...

oddly, the FAZ is also a see of red.. something doesn't quite add up there.

karen said...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- There's no "structural" issue requiring a halt to foreclosures and the government won't interfere with Bank of America's decision to resume them, the nation's top housing official said Wednesday.

Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan again repeated the White House's opposition to a national foreclosure moratorium so that the "fragile housing recovery that has begun can continue."

Donovan fretted that foreclosure delays may have a particular impact on some of the hardest-hit housing markets. Foreclosures are particularly concentrated in western states like Nevada, Arizona and California, as well as Florida.

He said there's no evidence yet of "structural" issues with the Mortgage Electronic Registration System, an electronic registry of home loans that critics have charged with violating property record-keeping laws. Banks that package loans into bonds called mortgage-backed securities often rely on MERS to track owners of mortgages as the securities change hands.

karen said...

Donovan made clear he wasn't blessing all the foreclosures that are taking place.

"The process may be sound, but institutions might not be following them," he said. "[But] we have not to date found structural issues."



The government also won't step in to the $47 billion suit by the New York Fed and top investors of Pacific Investment Management Co. and BlackRock against Bank of America , which asks the lending giant to buy back securities based on loans from Countrywide, which B. of A. bought in 2008. Read more on lawsuit against Bank of America.

"We are not trying to intervene with a private suit," Donovan said. He also said it's not usual for investors to bring lawsuits asking servicers to repurchase securities.

Bank of America and GMAC this week restarted some of their foreclosures after a self-imposed moratorium, a process that Donovan called "their decision."

A Federal Housing Administration review of the nation's top five servicers -- Bank of America, Wells Fargo , J.P. Morgan Chase , Citigroup and Ally Financial's GMAC -- of loss mitigation requirements has found "very different" results, with some in compliance and others not. Donovan declined to mention which servicers are in violation while a review of their performance continues.

The servicers in violation could face fines, forced changes to procedures or even disqualification from FHA servicing.

The Justice Department is leading a more narrow review of whether there's been intentional fraud in seizing a home where it's not justified.


To which CV and I will just say WTFE.

cv said...

@karen

Harry Wanger is busy "pricing it in" to the last decimal...

Colin said...

Karen, Im still with you and shaking my head on the CRE stocks here. Not a clue what todays moonshot is about. Maybe the dip gave the yield grabbers the confidence to jump back in? I honestly havent a clue. Keeps going up until it doesnt I guess?

McFearless said...

McHappy, sentiment is indeed at extremes in some cases that already eclipse April and as you point out, it's not even close on the dollar.

sentiment always shows up in statements...how many times have you read the last few weeks that the Fed has destroyed the dollar? I've read it a lot, but on the chart, while it has been very volatile, and the dollar is a POS, what I see is that we are in fact still a few dollars off the lows from early 2008, so despite the feds apparent best efforts over that period of time, and claims that state otherwise... they still haven't even been able to push the dollar to a new low.

the same sort of sentiment has bulls taunting anyone advising caution despite the fact that now for 10 years you've lost on average in stocks....it's the sort of thing that causes peole to state that those that advised bonds and gold at the beginning of the year were somehow wrong because they were "too bearish equities"

mcHAPPY said...

"Karen, Im still with you and shaking my head on the CRE stocks here. Not a clue what todays moonshot is about. Maybe the dip gave the yield grabbers the confidence to jump back in? I honestly havent a clue. Keeps going up until it doesnt I guess?"

I can already hear the, "Nobody saw this coming. Nobody."

All we realy need to get a top is Grasso to pipe up, "There has to be a fundamental reason for stocks to drop, Robert. Tell me a fundamental reason!?!?!"

McFearless said...

what are these people talking about with a "fragile housing recovery" some recent charts say that's a bunch of rubbish

existing home salles SAAR....all i see is some bs from the tax credit and we go right back down

existing months of supply....uh hello?

total loans and leases being made at commercial banks?

millions of foreclosures that haven't occured yet

give me a break

cv said...

@karen

speaking of "WTFE"...

new chart in thread

It just won't budge out of that RSI wedge...

McFearless said...

oh, Grasso you say, I just realized he called gold a bubble in May, so he was truly "on-fire" those few months....but check this out...CV will love it, he's now getting ready for the election which means 1,300:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Survey-Investors-Fear-cnbc-1077863687.html?x=0&.v=1

"If you overlay the 2004 stock market chart during those elections, it gets you to between 1200 and 1300 on the S&P 500 before the end of this year," said Stuart Frankel's Steve Grasso, whose clients have been placing more orders with him in anticipation of a political change.

In 2004, stocks rallied 13 percent from their early August lows. George W. Bush won a second term as President and Republicans gained seats in both houses.

DL said...

I don't think that options traders are quite as giddy now as they were in April.

McFearless said...

also, here is a great video, enjoy:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/the-silence-of-the-bears-james-altucher-says-the-prophets-of-doom-are-all-wrong-535524.html?tickers=MSFT,AAPL,BRK-B,TBT,%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,BAC&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

McFearless said...

and his comments are just like Jeff Saks when he talked to hugh hendry about Greece, this guy is an effing fool:

"there's a lot more interest in bearish-type news," he says, noting ‘foreclosure gate' has now supplanted Greece as the worry du jour. "Where did Greece go? Did it fall of the map? Nobody even talks about Greece anymore," Altucher says. "Now there's foreclosure gate. Three months from now it will be a dead story."

"what worked the past 50 years is probably going to work the next 50 years"

oh dear lord....


here's a forecast...3 years from now, NOBODY will be talking about, or to, James Altucher

McFearless said...

certainly p/c in April being 2 std dev. below mean was wild, but I'd hardly call today's anything other than bullish:

http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-put-call-ratio-equity-20d-sma-params-3y-x-x/

certainly if you only look at p/c, which is a bit suspect anyway because puts can be bought as part of a bullish trade, then you'd draw the conclusion that sentiment isn't as bullish, but that's why we follow several sentiment reports, some a easier than others, like the div paid on the DOW or S&P, as Hussman noted in his letter

"A 25% price decline would be required to boost the S&P 500 yield from 1.97% to just 2.65% - the yield that prevailed at the 1929, 1972 and 1987 peaks, and was never observed on a sustained basis until the mid-1990's bubble"

If this doesn't indicate excessive bullishness then I really should quit because I clearly don't know how to interpret data.

cv said...

from ZH...

"A little reality about the job situation in this country is in order. The unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and parroted by the mainstream media is currently 9.6%. Once you stop counting people who have given up looking for jobs and “left the workforce”, discouraged workers, marginally attached workers and workers forced to work part-time, you magically get a 9.6% rate. Using the method of measuring unemployment used during the Great Depression and reproduced by www.shadowstats.com, the real unemployment rate is a depression-like 22.5%. The peak unemployment rate during the Great Depression was 25%. There is no doubt that we are in the midst of 2nd Great Depression, but where are the bread lines and the lines of unemployed winding around the corner? No need. This is the electronic Great Depression – iDepression 2.0. Your 99 weeks of unemployment and food stamps are direct deposited into your bank account so that you don’t have to leave the comfort of your McMansion that you haven’t made a mortgage payment on in the last 14 months. There were no credit cards in 1933. Without a job or a house, you needed to move to where there might be a job. Hence the mass migration from the Midwest to California – ala The Grapes of Wrath. Today, a neighbor in a matching McMansion down the street, with the perfectly manicured lawn, could be unemployed for three years and no one would ever know. They could sustain themselves on unemployment payments, food stamps, and credit cards. Welcome to the iDepression 2.0."

karen said...

CV @ 3:41, if that isn't the truth..

McFearless said...

employment....minor problem, Altucher says so...it's the ONLY thing that "doesn't really look good"

karen said...

Ben, sorry, i couldn't/wouldn't waste my time on that JA. (dble entendre intended : )

DL said...

I don't completely ignore dividend yields. I would say that I give that factor a weighting of AT LEAST 0.00000000000000001%, maybe more.

First, there may be a connection between dividend yields and tax policy; second, dividend yields are largely worthless for people who are trying to time the market and have a time frame of a month or less.

AmenRa said...

Don't forget WMT at months end...

McFearless said...

Karen,

you didn't miss anything, well, maybe a laugh at the hair.

DL,

yeah, you are right, I'm sure nearly 100 years of very clear dividend relationship and the DOW should just be tossed aside at this point, thanks for the rationalization though, made me smile, I've heard people argue since 2000 that dividends don't matter, seems to be working really well for equity bulls.

mcHAPPY said...

After all the bullshit on accounting standards over the years and the watering down of the inputs in to valuations such as P/E ratios, the dividend yield is truly the only constant determination of market value.

I agree with the timing the market comment. Dividend yield is certainly not a "sell now indicator" but is certainly a good indicator that things are truly overvalued on a long term time frame.

McFearless said...

you can't "time" any sentiment indicators, they are simply warnings, the dollar dsi seems to serve as a perfect example of this fact.

AmenRa said...

Wait...why are SPY options expiring on Oct 21st instead of Oct 15th? Third Friday is supposed to be option expiration right?

karen said...

based on the div stocks like jnk and nly.. i'd say investors are clamoring for yield..

Jennifer said...

Amen Ra -- those are the new weekly options -- move on to November. Last week was the true Op Ex.

karen said...

New 52 week high on JNK right at the close..

DL said...

McHappy,

Yes, someone who wants to hold stocks for several years at a time should look at dividend yields. And there may still be some merit to the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy.

karen said...

off to do some outdoor work! check back for the wrap!

cv said...

gotta go peeps...

Oddly... the scenario I've been pushing all day is still TECHNICALLY in tact...

But.....

Anyway... If AMEN doesn't get the wrap up by 5PM, it's because BLOGGER is shutting down uploads for a couple of hours (starting at 5PM)...

So depending on your time freedom Amen... we'll leave it to you...

later gators

AmenRa said...

CV

It's 5pm PST....

72bat said...

over at zerohedge, the maddening statistics are all there in this post iDepression 2.0
which concludes
"The delusions continue. Unless American union workers are willing to work for $7 per hour with no benefits, the manufacturing jobs are not coming back from China. The corporate oligarchs and their bought off cronies in Congress sold the country down the river over the last 40 years."

"The real people of this country who have worked and saved and done the right things have been beaten down. It is time to stand up to those in power and take this country back."

The only thing the essay doesn't tell us is what exactly is it that the "real people" are going to do (are capable of doing?) to create the needed jobs

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