Morning Audibles

With the exception of the SPY FLASH CRASHING at about 4:15 (I think Jennifer was first to point out something funny going on at yesterdays close)... Then we see...



 
See? I tried to warn them if they attempted to cut costs and use old discarded ATARI programs to run the systems, eventually the whole thing would go BEZERK! 


I knew it!... Waddell & Reed again!

Will people please be informed that it's supposed to look something like this...


No, those aren't "vote tallies" for the 2008 elections... You know... E-L-E-C-T-I-O-N-S... Those things that come around every two years which basically decide NOTHING except which citizens of the United States will decide to become expatriates if such and such a candidate wins...

They'll pack their bags and move to a country where the grass is greener, and things are immeasurably better...

As French Strikes Continue, Country Runs Out Of Gas

Like Here...

Or Here...

Or... If you prefer closer to (your former) home... (To the north version)

(to the South version)

C'Mon Man... It's infinitely better here (regardless of which dud they put in the White House)... Because here you can always just have a QUIET RIOT of your own...


Save your anger... And when it has subsided... Go take a look at your portfolio, see that you're long AAPL & Netflix, own a McMansion that you don't have to pay a mortgage on, and can't get foreclosed on... Go have yourself 9 kids, and to celebrate the birth of each one of the freshly minted little socialists, marxists, capitalist pigs, greenies, teabaggers, blogetteers, rascals... Have a Cigar!


Come in here, Dear boy, have a cigar.
You're gonna go far,
You're gonna fly high,
You're never gonna die,
You're gonna make it, if you try;

They're gonna love you.
Well I've always had a deep respect,
And I mean that most sincere.
The band is just fantastic,
that is really what I think.
Oh by the way, which one's Pink?

And did we tell you the name of the game, boy?

We call it Riding the Gravy Train.

We're just knocked out.
We heard about the sell-out.
You gotta get an album out.
You owe it to the people.
We're so happy we can hardly count.

Everybody else is just green,
Have you seen the chart?
It's a hell of a start,
It could be made into a monster
If we all pull together as a team.

And did we tell you the name of the game, boy?
We call it Riding the Gravy Train.





244 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 244   Newer›   Newest»
karen said...

LOL! CV, a dare say you have a few bees in your bonnet..

call me ahab said...

riots have been on my mind lately-

the only time you get riots now it appears is when you take away a stipend or try to adjust the retirement age a year or two-

the people have been pacified- quiet riot indeed

CV said...

@karen

More like "bats in my belfry"...

call me ahab said...

ZH's quick synopsis of the SPY flash crash-

The market is a farce, wrapped in a joke, inside a tragicomedy.

boy- with all these flash crashes going a person could think there's a problem somewhere

CV said...

Anyway...

Back to the SPY flash crash...

So people... there's your "correction"... Now you can go back to buying...

I'm not totally kidding when I say that... That's why, for months now, I post all these SPY charts (which show the AFTER HOURS shenanigans & technical patterns)...

Almost invariably they come into play...

I believe they're used to disguise the market behavior... It's also why the market has been able to rise so effortlessly... Most of the base prints come in in the AH, and never even get close to being visited in the regular session...

CV said...

@ahab
The market is a farce, wrapped in a joke, inside a tragicomedy."

That was actually going to be my thread leader today...

But instead, I was going to say...

"This market is a clusterfuck surrounded by a circle jerk"

karen said...

"a strong bounce by the dollar, which was sent higher by news that China increased its lending and deposit rate by 25 basis points. The dollar is now up 0.9% against competing currencies."

karen said...

"Since the Fed raised expectations of a second round of quantitative easing on 21 September, the gold price has risen 7.7%, its largest three-week rise in more than five months. The immediate impact of any QE2 has probably already been factored into the price."

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=113217&sn=Detail&pid=110649

CV said...

@karen

Not that this really matters 9or my opinion of it)...

But...

Look - If Bernanke is going to continue with POMO (and basically, debasing the dollar), then eventually the Chinese are just going to respond by dumping an equivalent amount of paper on the market every time they do a POMO)...

They have to be careful about doing it right now, because regardless of what happens in the elections, you'll still have a LAME DUCK Congress for about 2 months that can (and probably WILL) go "scorched earth", and do things like put through tarriffs...

This is all, really, a matter of time as to exactly WHEN it's going to happen, but when the Chinese make a move like that, Bernanke's little "science lab" project will be over...

It could happen at ANY TIME between now, and I'd probably say the LAST DAY that the current legislative body is at their desks (assuming they ever were, in fact, at their desks at any time, since 2006)...

Oh... & by the way... When the Chinese make a move like that, you can bet the Euros will be in there buying dollars...

call me ahab said...

which show the AFTER HOURS shenanigans & technical patterns)...

I believe Denninger has noted this as well-

regarding QE2- when the Fed comes up with their modest (and what they regard as sensible) proposals-

the market will most unhappy- waiting for the shock and awe that isn't coming

CV said...

@ahab

"the market will most unhappy- waiting for the shock and awe that isn't coming"

---

I'll say this for the "n+100th" time...


THE BEGINNING
2007 - Easing cycle began with rate cuts after "subprime is contained... WASN'T"

2010 - QE2, same equity market reaction (speculation in September and October on what the effect of QE2 will be)...

THE END
2007 - Dec 2007, FOMC meeting, only 25 basis point cut is forthcoming... Market response?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41lTZaHMTCw&feature=related

2010 - After QE2 is announced... sell the news... Market response?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy_IxhLL5vQ

karen said...

from the Daily Pfenning: Brazil is back in the news as they are trying everything to stem their currency's appreciation. The Finance Minister announced they will increase a tax on foreign investment in fixed income securities to 6% from 4% and a tax on margin deposits for the futures market is expected to climb to 6% from the current .38%.

Neither one of these policy changes impact our EverBank Brazilian CDs, but this is just another attempt to cool speculation on the real and make it somewhat less attractive to purchase. At the end of the day, these higher taxes and government intervention in the market won't offset their interest rate differential and the overall market appetite for the currency. In the end, the market as a whole usually wins.

call me ahab said...

CV-

I thought of you yesterday when I saw this headline from CNBC-

"FDIC Warns of Possible US Farmland 'Bubble'"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39727942

maybe a lot of folks trying to get their own patch of acreage "just in case"

72bat said...

NYSE cancels trades in S&P 500 ETF
"The glitch occurred after the closing auction was delayed due to a software upgrade at the exchange, the reports said."
yeah, right, same thing happens to my pc every time there's a microsoft auto-update

AmenRa said...

Karen

You left out the fact that Brazil has pulled out of the G20 meeting.


Uh oh.

call me ahab said...

“Predatory Mortgage Securitization”

the practices of the banks were that they were double and multi-pledging assets and pledging paid off and refinance notes to securitizations. . . Now, they come and admit that each of my allegations were true Without analyzing the deal, as complex as they are, you WILL NEVER KNOW IF THE FORECLOSING PARTY HAS “ANY” RIGHT TO FORECLOSE!!!

4closurefraud.org

CV said...

@ahab (8:44)

Well when the dopes realize they could probably get away with an acre or two that are well managed & built right "infrastructure wise", then the next BUBBLE will be in Tilapia...

See ahab... It's typical "knee jerk" (emphasis on JERK), at this point in the game for everyone to go out an but farmland...

You have to also consider water, streams or lakes, access to infrastructure, and OH, by the way, a 40 minute train ride into downtown Washington DC might not be bad either...

Hmmm... Harpers Ferry WV (on the Potomac & Shenendoah) seems a good fit...

Beats moving to New Zealand anyway...

72bat said...

karl denninger and reggie middleton co-host a special 30-minute blogtalkradio show @ 1:00 PM today about Foreclosuregate and problems in the banking system

Jennifer said...

So...when I see stuff like yesterday, it seems to raise a question of fundamental candlestick interpretation...on the one hand, there's the school of thought that the long tails point away from the next direction (we got down there, but we couldn't stay down there, so now we're going up) but on the other hand there's the takuri idea, which is more like we just went for a little visit, check out the place, and we'll be back for an extended stay real soon. Thoughts?

call me ahab said...

probably get away with an acre or two that are well managed & built right "infrastructure wise"

no doubt- I can see someone buying 40 acres of land sight unseen-

thinking they'll farm it if necessary-

is there water, is it flat, is it wooded, how far from a town, electricity?

lots to think about

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

Long tails show that the market tried to move hard in one direction but got rejected. I prefer hanging man, inverted hammer, gravestone doji and dragonfly doji. They show a level that couldn't be broken (that day).

CV said...

@ahab

People get flustered when they run out of Cheerios at the local supermarket, or the local liquor store is out of their favorite bottle of wine...

I can't wait to see them stick a shovel in the ground...

AmenRa said...

TYS +6.65%
TNX +1.97%

Whatcha gonna do now BB?

call me ahab said...

CV-

but they can live off the bounty of the land-

berries and wild nettle, pine cones and acorns

lol

AmenRa said...

TYX not TYS

karen said...

smsearsBarrons

cannot recall last time trading monitor filled w/ many blank lines for stock prices, reflecting specialists dealing with pre-market action

McFearless said...

re: brazil, etc.

some of us wondered when exactly other central banks/countries would begin to protect themselves against US Fed's actions,... because that's what this is all about in the end, self preservation.

perhaps the greatest flaw in the Fed religious movements thesis is the idea that the Fed can act in any which way they please and the rest of the world would simply observe them without a care in the world regarding the potential negative consequences for themselves.

Who's already taking action...lets see:

China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Brazil, and the BOE, for starters.

call me ahab said...

. . .and CV- if you ever read the book or saw the movie- "Into the Wild"-

that's what awaiting everyone if they think they can just wander off in the woods somewhere and survive

CV said...

@ahab

ACORNS living off acorns... Count me "in" in that idea...

CV said...

@ahab

Most couldn't last a DAY without toilet paper...

CV said...

Jeez...

Should go LONG AAPL here... Join the sheep...

karen said...

I can't believe gs is green..

AmenRa said...

SPX opened below pivot and got below S2 (1170.59).

karen said...

$copper/JJC down over 3%

call me ahab said...

my opinion on AAPL- a lot of headwinds- especially when it's one product doing all the heavy lifting-

all my son's friends look for Android phones- the Iphone having a whiff of femininity about it

AmenRa said...

With the dollar higher the BoJ & FinMin don't have to do anything.

Jennifer said...

who knew when I fell for my husband that some day I might appreciate the fact that he grew up on a dairy farm much more than his legal skills...no foraging for acorns for us...I've got 2 kids w/ peanut and tree nut allergies.

call me ahab said...

just buy the dips

AmenRa said...

ahab

That means the iPhone is more complicated...

karen said...

THOMAS PETERFFY, AN ARCHITECT of the modern securities market, is concerned the markets he helped create are at a dangerous turning point.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203952604575552190237324972.html#articleTabs%3Darticle

Jennifer said...

And the FCX puts my dad was giving me grief about are now in the green. Nothing like combining family and investing. Oh, and I like to be right too, which doesn't help matters.

karen said...

targets on aapl from MS, S&P, and Citi.. $375 or better..

Jennifer said...

Hmmm...chatter that MEE is "exploring strategic alternatives." That sounds to me like "quick, sell the stuff w/ value before any big judgements get entered against us." All those Chilean miners helped us forget the ones right here at home for a while.

call me ahab said...

Karen-

I was reading something somewhere yesterday- saying that AAPL is the darling of 15 funds who own most of the stock-

people are fickle-

I remember people buying msft in the late 90's so they could double there money and put more money down on a house (great plan Einstein)-

because they knew msft could never go down

McFearless said...

I love to see an entire days gains wiped out in 10 minutes, ror.

I should have known better yesterday and shorted on that second test at end of the day...lesson learned.

CV said...

@Amen

Then got back above...

CURRENT LAS VEGAS odds...(per "bodog.com")

Ravens to win Super Bowl: 5-1

Steelers to win Super Bowl: 5-1

Jets to win Super Bowl: 5-1

Yankees to win World series: 5-2

Phillies to win World Series: 2-1

HARRY WANGER to have called "going long" AAPL at exactly the $300 tick: 1-9

Ritholtz to have a "consensus yay" on his socialist theories": 1-999

Obama to Blame it on Bush: 1-999,999,999

McFearless said...

some of you are probably familiar with the Fidelity Contrafund...the manager runs this fund which is real popular in retail.....spy the top holdings:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=FNIAX+Holdings

McFearless said...

and yeah....he's made a double bet on WFC by owning the common and BRK.A.

CV said...

@Jennifer

That's all CV is really missing right now...

(Elsie the cow & a couple of goats)... Though I had PLENTY of "goats" wearing teal jerseys last night on the field who cost me 4 units)...

AmenRa said...

Was the SPY flash crash really an error or a trade that was done a day early?

McFearless said...

the down days are funny...two dow stocks up, McD's and JPM.....and now KFT.

AmenRa said...

Ummm goat...

Jennifer said...

Don't eat the milk producers AR! Think of the children...or the cheese.

CV said...

"the down days are funny..."

See people? Down days are FUNNY!

So if you need more humor in your life... sell some stocks...

Tomorrow is a POMO day, so you can go back to being grumpy...

McFearless said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-of-America-posts-77B-apf-4096614857.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

oh, and here is what they came up with for a 'strategy' at some closed door very important meeting at BAC with the "head people":

"In a dramatic shift, the bank also said it will change its consumer banking strategy to focus on providing customers with incentives to do more business with the bank instead of generating revenue through penalty fees such as overdraft charges."

Jennifer said...

Buh bye 11,000.

Jennifer said...

Oooh...look at the shiny things. Gold down more than 30 bucks?

McFearless said...

CV,

this morning I opened my paper and saw TEN won big......ROR

on paper bitchez

CV said...

@mcF

If SPX trades down to "neely's wave 4 level" and bounces...

I'm going to be impressed...

call me ahab said...

b22-

yeah- I can see those fund managers high fiving each other-

AAPL- nowhere to go but up- because all the kids love Apple-

I'm telling you- fashion and preferences turn on a dime

CV said...

@McF

You all were chatterboxing away on this blog, while I was in fromt of the tube crying in the homemade POTATO & LEEK soup I made over the weekend...

Which was DAMN GOOD by the way... (the soup, NOT the game)...

McFearless said...

CV,

9:56

you and me both

CV said...

@McF

what was that level again?

1155-1160-ish?

call me ahab said...

I watched that game on mute-

as I was chatterboxing-

I saw a couple picks from Jacksonville

I've never been a Tenn fan- would have liked to have seen them lose

McFearless said...

ahab,

yeah fashions can change pretty quick, no doubt, I find all the recent calls for $400 or even better "will never see $200" interesting to say the least. these sort of can't lose attitudes typically end in tears.

karen said...

this guy is a bull.. some of his comments are hilarious: tradefast

given the broad tape, $AAPL is amazing - a gap fill is not out of the question

inflation is too low, unemployment too high - fed has statutory mandate to address these issues - not comprehending those who say do nothing

we need to produce more than 1 million houses annually to meet regular population and immigration growth - current run rate is 0.5 million

NOTE: just want you all to know that i do tune into the bulls and not just the bears.. chicken little : )

McFearless said...

C,

yeah that's about where the wave 4 would line up 1155-1165...AT could probably tell you better than me the rules around a terminal C wave, I'm still going through the book. Neely is one smart guy, one thing he says that is very true but EWI won't acknowledge, not an exact quote:

"sometimes the wave patterns aren't clear enough to make a forecast, iow, you can't forecast markets all the time with elliott wave, or neo wave"

and that's when you do what is the absolute hardest for most people.....nothing.

karen said...

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/19/treasury-to-sell-more-citi-shares/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook

call me ahab said...

Karen-

looks he must be long builder's then- from his incredible insight that we need 1 million homes annually-

I guess empty REO's don't count

McFearless said...

I really can't stop laughing at that BAC article....just picture the strategy room and some idiot:

hey guys, how about instead of making a lot of money on fees and penalties we try to get our customers to just do more actual business with us next year....what do you all think about that idea?

just in time for someone across the room to say: oh we have the whole business figured out already, we just hired Fed Ex.

McFearless said...

"not comprehending those who say do nothing"

not comprehending those that actually think after 80 years of failure they can in fact achieve the mandate....pfft. i didn't see destroy the currency on the mandate list, they seem to have that down at least.

McFearless said...

and also, his numbers are garbage....we needed to produce 1 million units annually, now housing inventory is on the order of 12 months

AmenRa said...

"LB will watch gold, TIPS and T-bills. When they begin to dump the first two and buy the latter, it's time to go to the fallout shelter."

Well let's see...
Gold -2.39%
TIP -0.38%
2YR +0.01%

So LB is it time?

karen said...

ahab, shhh.. don't tell tradefast..

Fed's Dudley: 3 million excess vacant housing units

http://goo.gl/fb/23BB9

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

Milk and cheese for a few years then it becomes stew.

CV said...

@McF

Thanks..."sometimes the wave patterns aren't clear enough to make a forecast, iow, you can't forecast markets all the time with elliott wave, or neo wave"


But if you use THE ELECTIONS as your forecasting tool, you can have success...

on this..."

call me ahab said...

b22-

but I can see this-

well- you did overdraft your account- but we're not going to charge you an overdraft fee if you sign up for overdraft coverage (now)-

or . . .you want a car loan? No problem- just need you to step up to premium checking to get our most favorable rate-

thelist could go on and on

Anonymous said...

"we need to produce more than 1 million houses annually to meet regular population and immigration growth"

Does that take into account the proportion of immigrants who move in as families (couples+), household combinations (e.g., marriages, etc.), and trend of children living with their parents longer? It sounds like a very soft statistic that assumes a 1 to 1 correlation between population growth and home demand.

karen said...

UFB.. look at IYR.. and i beg someone to give me an explanation..

Anonymous said...

High quality fixed income is even taking a bath this morning.

McFearless said...

ahab,
what is funny is that the bank can't just function as a bank can they?

McFearless said...

anon,

that stat is so funny it's probably not worth trying to wrap your head around it

re: housing/pop growth

wunsacon said...

"Intruder alert! Intruder alert!"
- HFT algos from Berzerk

Good luck trading against the bots today, peh-puhls.

Off to the spice mine.

McFearless said...

karen, 10:12

tell dudley that population growth will fill them all.

karen said...

uup is cr*pping out.. thanks to Evans.. my disgust is overwhelming..

call me ahab said...

gotta roll

AmenRa said...

On down days take profits quick before algos realize you have a profit...

CV said...

@karen

"look at IYR.. and i beg someone to give me an explanation..."

Are we reading that upside down?

CV said...

"High quality fixed income"

Peeps... we have an early WINNER in the daily oxymoron sweepstakes...

Anonymous said...

Sorry about that. I will remember to put in quotations next time.

CV said...

@ahab (10:14)/Mcf (10:09)

I see it like this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKdIKP1arF0

McFearless said...

dollar might just need to test the trendline again in order to consolidate before a bounce

per Dan's chart this morning:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TL1lDQI6VVI/AAAAAAAAH1w/06f--iXqFdw/s1600/2010-10-19-TOS_CHARTS.png

CV said...

More bank fun...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1caAJ5CfU2g&feature=channel

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgdTymCZowU&feature=channel

CV said...

@karen

Here's a country to consider moving to if things get bad...

$900,000 for a 3-bedroom ... in Haiti?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/cb_haiti_earthquake_housing

karen said...

mrtopstep

New Charts: SPX vs. DJIA "a concern"?

http://mrtopstep.com/?p=764

McFearless said...

take a look at this chart via Cobra....this is the sort of thing that I think helps support the idea we still have a fifth wave up of Wave C before this rally is over, this is GOOG:

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TL0EVVJz2cI/AAAAAAAAI5s/_-kdD3dqJvI/s1600-h/GOOGWeekly%5B2%5D.png

AmenRa said...

TICKS indicate massive buying (probably to prevent triggering another flash crash). Arrgghh!

karen said...

fantastic chart.. ben.. a great view... but still, i think it shows you need to start taking $$ off the table.

McFearless said...

Karen,

indeed, if you trade intermediate time frame I'd be in distribution mode now, I'd be all out at 1200, let somebody else claw the last 50 points if that's where we are going, we know once it's over the whole rally gets erased in a matter of weeks.

McFearless said...

Ra:

these charts aren't real easy on the eyes but take a look at what this person has done with Tick mapping....some crosses are brewing like they were in April:

http://astrocycle.net/index.php?Menu=Stocks

cv said...

@McF/karen

"fantastic chart.. ben.. a great view"...

Yeah... fantastic... Only about a week late... I guess CV doesn't get any love for putting up this chart before GOOG earnings last week...

And making mention of the fact that the $600 level for GOOG would be an interesting barrier...


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/TL2w32rQzkI/AAAAAAAACgo/34HUfm27Vp4/s1600/goog.JPG

---

I'm glad you all like my JOKES though (sometimes)...

McFearless said...

I just come here for the football write-ups CV.

cv said...

Well those suck too...

cv said...

But... My SC FF team is 5-1 right now, and kicked the Bo Jacksons to the curb last week...

McFearless said...

yep, like I said yesterday, I had every match up you could have wanted at pretty much all positions but WR....the bo jacksons blew it this week

cv said...

@Bo Jackson

You may want to sport a new team name (and avatar for this week)...

http://www.nflgridirongab.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/jack-tatum-the-assassin.jpg

I need you WINNING in this spot...

cv said...

I keep telling LB that when TSHTF, instead of "high-tailing it" out of Gotham to Vermont (where all you'll then find are a bunch of Manhattan-ites clogging up lines for milk)...

That I can teach him to stay in Manhattan and live off the "fat of the concrete jungle"...

LITERALLY

http://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749625/cooking-oil-theft-22493314;_ylt=AiZjetIFIfNEyecNgPGCpfKz174F;_ylu=X3oDMTE3ZnRjYjlxBHBvcwMxBHNlYwNtb3N0LXBvcHVsYXIEc2xrA2Nvb2tpbmdvaWx0aA--

But nobody listens much to CV's kooky ideas...

Biodiesel & Nickles bitchez!

Nic said...

Hello :)

Nic said...

Today is the 23rd (fib #) anniversary of the 19 Oct 1987 market crash.

cv said...

Hey Nic...

Today is also the "golden ratio" (1.618) time extension from the April high to the summer low...

I mentioned that yesterday... But I wrote it in invisible ink, so nobody saw...

McFearless said...

does anyone else have the JPM print showing it at a penny early today, it seems it shows up some places and not others

karen said...

CV.. I loved your goog chart, too! i just liked the %B on the cobra chart and the dashed lines running up.. just a different view!

cv said...

April highs to July 1st low = 48 days

48 x 1.618 = 77.68

We're now 77 days since July 1st

I tried to NOT use my "invisible ink" pen on that one...

karen said...

But no one will tell me why REITs are shining stars ??? pls explain it..

This fib stuff is too freaky : )

AmenRa said...

Dollar volume of trades are still negative on the SPX, NYSE and NASDAQ.

AmenRa said...

Ben

I'm still trying to figure those TICK charts.

karen said...

GS is making me sick.. really..

Nic said...

Hi CV
I am just reading back. VERY interesting

karen said...

and it makes perfect sense for FAZ to be down on bank "earnings."

AmenRa said...

CV

So are you saying that 1.618 times however many days it took to go from high to low (or low to high) is when that move should start again in earnest?

McFearless said...

Ra,

I looked at those charts for over an hour last night, then I started to get a headache....what sort of hoping you might be able to make something out of them, lol.

AmenRa said...

Nic

I almost forgot today was the anniversary of Oct 19, 1987. Didn't cross my mind. But this mornings open definitely crossed the minds of the IBs, CBs, and PDs.

McFearless said...

yeah, public reits up...private reits writing down asset values...what doesn't make sense?

AmenRa said...

Ben

Well I see moving averages of TICK and TRIN. The MA varies depending on the time frame. Then there's some trend lines on the MA's. It also looks like it has to be x% higher to constitute a new high in his cycles. What he's trying to say with all of that I have no clue.

Nic said...

You are bang on CV
I missed you all :)

McFearless said...

looking for some afternoon fun?

read the yahoo m-board for aapl today

McFearless said...

how've you been feeling Nic, back on your game?

McFearless said...

Ra,

that's what I couldn't do...put it all together, after I finally figured out where he put all the trend-lines, the blues, etc. I still couldn't understand what the forecast was. Sort of gave up but figured I'd throw the chart up here.

cv said...

@Amen (11:39)

All I'm doing brother is THE MATH...

But, if you want to know... This morning, I put a 100% hedge on my "short" positions (which was about 40% short and 60% cash of total portfolio - not counting a little insignificant SHORT GOLD thingy I'm holding onto and still getting murdered on while my bullion goes to the moon)...

If you want my 2 cents (which is worth 4 cents if you have pre-1982 pennies in your collection, OR... 2.5 cents if you snip a nickel in half like the ROMANS did)...

I'm starting to get interested in Neely's count (per Ben)... But I still think we could correct further here (A-B-C'ish)...

Let's say 1155 is the target... Not MY target, just "a" target...

Maybe it won't happen today, or tomorrow (a POMO day)... But perhaps either after POMO tomorrow... or after 2PM (where we seem to always get the "echo" POMO), the market may start to dive...

Sheep boy predicts a BAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHD Thursday, then probably a "catch" on Friday (which seems to have become the NEW momo Monday)...

I could be right or wrong, but that's my playbook, (which is not, in fact, a beach ball)...

Remember though... I pointed you all to 5 units on the Texans over the weekend, and 4 units on the Jags... so my record may be dubious...

Colin said...

The rent is too high people (I hope someone hasn't already posted this). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4o-TeMHys0

McFearless said...

I heard more Coons v. Oddonnell debate on the radio this morning on the way in.

I fear for all of us, that's all I can say.

She's insane wrapped in a suit of clueless...he just as bad.

again, i sat and wondered....these are my choices?

I also have yet to recieve a response from either candidate on my request that they define what the dollar is. If they don't respond I'll write a letter to the news journal stating that both candidates did not answer the question about what a dollar is despite the fact that both promised voters they would "tackle the debt problems"

McFearless said...

wow, Colin, awesome video. the gloves...and that beard!

that beard alone has had to experience more than a lesser man's entire body.

bet we get more people like him though in the coming years (that attitude anyway)

karen said...

i'm having quite a day between the market and my leaks! did i mention the downpour here??! probably not..

cv said...

@Colin

THAT'S THE FUNNIEST DAMN THING I'VE SEEN ALL YEAR!

When that goes viral (as I'M SURE it will)... I'm giving you full discovery rights...

You'll have a high school and a museum named after you...

As far as a national holiday is concerned... That's going to be tough because we won't be able to afford the days off after we have a "month of Obama" celebration where everything shuts down in his honor...

karen said...

ha! i thot my streaming quote list had frozen.. LOL.. there is just nothing ticking!!

AmenRa said...

Will this trade get broken?

AAPL 330 call closed at 10.71 yesterday. Today during the first minute of trading it hit a low of 0.01. That's right ONE CENT. It's now trading around 4.80. Will the market step in and undo or let it ride?

cv said...

@mcF

As far as "what a dollar is"...

Well.. Look on the bright side... When bernanke gets the dollar to ZERO, then the debt instrument used to make a claim on something will be worthless...

All loans forgiven!

Picture me rollin'!

McFearless said...

CV,

I just want to start calling these people out, I've had enough of this shet.

cv said...

@McF

"and that beard!"

See? All GREAT BEARDS think alike...

McFearless said...

nah...I read in Animal Farm....some beards are smarter than others

AmenRa said...

He had the audience chanting the phrase LMAO. The other debaters quickly realized he took their thunder.

cv said...

@AmenRa

I'm laughing... BUT NOT TOTALLY... When stuff like tha goes viral, it can create a sea change... A mob mentality...

be careful...

look at the faces of the others... they were laughing... but I think I also some some FEAR on those faces...

McFearless said...

well, at least the all the same markets theme is back on for a day....where do you hide today besides the dollar...it's all red.

of course some might point out it's less red at this point.

I hope we dont' start another other bs triangle now...

McFearless said...

btw, that video has 640 likes and 3 dislikes

just sayin.

McFearless said...

I gotta head out for the rest of the day, good luck.

cv said...

You NEVER KNOW when something unexpected will fall like that...

Just the other day I was teaching a class... I'm always IMPROVISING my verbal banter with the students...

It's not all just counting to 8 and giving cues on posture...

Anyway, you have to think VERY QUICKLY... all the time... It's like being a stand up comedian... You have to improvise on the spot...

Often something funny flashes into your mind and you just blurt it out over the airwaves... You get a laugh sometimes, other times, only a few people "get it", and other times, it bombs (and you have to quickly COVER IT UP)...

Anyway... in this moment, I was going over to help a student with a certain exercise (and how she was handling the weight)... So I say out loud... "Don't worry, I'm from the government & I'm here to help"...

it's not often good to be POLITICAL when teaching... It's a fast way to lose half your students...

So my blurb came off as, of course, CRITICAL to the government... Which is risky, because Maryland is a very BLUE state...

Anyway, as soon as I was saying it, I was playing out a chess match in my mind and thinking "Oh jeez - be ready to cover THAT one up"...

Instead?

The ENTIRE CLASS erupted in laughter...

So you NEVER KNOW...

karen said...

AR at 12:01.. meant to comment! that was some spread.. i hate this market.. it's dumb! LOL

karen said...

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/10/doug-kass-unveils-screwflation.html

Kass is calling for a top for the year as the QE2 meme has reached mob mentality. However, as we complain about here, the wholesale change of the market to a computerized momo algo SPY trade makes traditional oversold, overbought calls much more hard than it used to be, when human emotion dominated.

cv said...

Generation Homeless: The New Faces of an Old Problem

http://www.aolnews.com/nation/article/young-adults-are-new-face-of-homelessness/19678303

This is just sad... But it's also REALITY...

Humankind needs to deal with REALITY to flourish...

Unfortunately... Washington & Wall St. don't offer much, in terms of REALITY...

So instead - we end up fixated on the character at the bottom of the page... (note: if the "cookies" on your browser end up plugging in something else - ask me - & I'll provide a screensave image of who I'm talking about)...

karen said...

THIS is why SRS and DRV are down:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/moodys-commercial-real-prices-fall-to.html

cv said...

Crystal Cathedral Megachurch Bankrupt

http://www.newser.com/story/103220/crystal-cathedral-megachurch-bankrupt.html

Excerpt: "Chapter 11 is all part of God's plan, pastor says"

OK... So let me piece this all together for you SC bloggers...

Lloyd Blankfein (GS): "We're doing God's work"

Pastor of CC: "Chapter 11 is all part of God's plan"

So it must be that GS wrote credit default swaps on the Crystal Cathedral... There... Now you have it... Please proceed with "frontrunning POMO" tomorrow and bidding AAPL stock to $350...

Anonymous said...

It's a divine plan folks...

Anonymous said...

only BEARDED ONES understand...

Anonymous said...

"If China's raising rates, it means bigger QE here. Buy this market"

--Fast Money halftime report

cv said...

@karen

KAREN!... Looks like our "short gold" hedges are finally about to pay off...

Goldman Pitching Short EURCHF Trade; Time To Go Long

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-pitching-short-eurchf-trade-time-go-long

Goldman... Issuing a FX call (like they did last MARCH, AGAINST my short Euro into May call)... Is a better contrarian indicator than Cramer or "sloppy joe" blog icons...

cv said...

@anon

FWIW... CV listens VERY CLOSELY to what the fast Money traders have to say...

... about "tanning tips"

cv said...

Here's a tip for you all...

I present... THE DAILY THING TO GET PISSED OFF OVER...

Click it, live it, know it... It'll make your blood boil for a moment...

But then, there's NOTHING POSSIBLE that could be worse for the rest of the day, so you'd be on CRUISE CONTROL until happy hour...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gs

cv said...

Here's a start in the "feeling better" realm...

peruse this as you ease into your first martini...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=uup

karen said...

CV, have you skipped all my comments regarding GS today! That stock is making me physically ill.. along with my leaking balcony...

karen said...

mrtopstep

New Video: Troubled Waters! http://mrtopstep.com/?p=782

cv said...

@karen

I have read your comments about GS...

But you have to realize that CV is the "consummate re-cycler"...

I mean... I harvest rainwater, discarded egg shells, coffee grounds, fruits & veggies, other organic matter, containers, ashes (potash) & various odds & ends...

So despite what many see as TRASH/WASTE (GS going up)... I see it as a potential "something" that can be converted into something else infinitely more useful...

It's CV's way...

AmenRa said...

Well no matter what the dollar volume of trades is still at the low end (selling outpacing buying).

cv said...

@karen (1:12)

Oh... So NOW it's "spooky" to Mr. TOPSTEP...

"Spooky" (in CV's terms) has been expressed in the following ways during this month...

October 5th

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/10/morning-audibles-10509.html

Where I put up this chart (speaking of "time" rather than price)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_uq2KcmM6MLM/TKtcqRXTXII/AAAAAAAACaU/79BuzCQSXFw/s1600/spx100610.JPG

Then, yesterday... I finally expressed the PRICE element...

October 18

cv said...
Today ought to be the 1.618...

In days...

from the April highs to the summer lows...

We also tagged just under 1186 (the MONTHLY 3lb reversal)...

Remember the "It's a long month" wraps Amen?... :-)

---

So great... If it's just starting to get SPOOKY for the beach ball crowd now...

WTFE...

karen said...

"in short, the fed seems to have become a vehicle of margin compression and profit destruction -- increasing costs relative to revenues, reducing income, amid a deleveraging cycle."

a good article tweeted by Nic: http://stock.ly/1soayg

DL said...

Probably re-test 1184 within the next couple of days. But maybe then we'll finally get a 4% correction.

karen said...

CV, WTFE is my line!

karen said...

oh, DL, you are so NOT a breath of fresh air!! LOL!

cv said...

@karen

Oh... and by the way... according to my charts...

That little "wavelet" on the 60 min. (that I annotated on the chart as "looking for 75?"...)

Ended up peaking at 73.02...

Just short, but still close enough to create another bearish divergence...

karen said...

i want 1160!

Andy T said...

Gold is getting a bit of a "rogering" today.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/rogering

cv said...

@DL

I'm going to delete your (1:36) so ben doesn't see it... :-)

he's in a bad mood because I kicked his tems ass in FF last weekend...

ON PAPER... his team should have won...

ON PAPER (rmfao)!...:-)

karen said...

yeah, that 60 min chart is really neat : )

cv said...

@karen

I want 1155... (I think it'll happen Thursday)...

cv said...

@Andy

hey... That's wasn't your section that AJ did his "Reliant Leap" on Sunday, was it?

karen said...

i'll compromise with you 1157.06 is the 20 ema today.. : ) so, in a few days that'll change to either 1160 or 1155.

Leftback said...

"LB will watch gold, TIPS and T-bills. When they begin to dump the first two and buy the latter, it's time to go to the fallout shelter."

Well let's see...
Gold -2.39%
TIP -0.38%
2YR +0.01%

So LB is it time?

Not quite yet.. no T bill buying, but LB is going to be more defensive in the next week or two. Bucky has bottomed.

LB likes to give gold a good rodgering... how do you feel about that, Karen?

Anonymous said...

I don't think that we should be surprised that Goldman is performing well.

1. Goldman underwrites a lot of new debt issues, which are very popular in this interest rate environment.

2. Goldman is getting a lot of M&A business right now, which should continue to be popular as demand growth is expected to be weak and growth by accretion is the only way for executives to grow earnings.

Leftback said...

LB owns some Treasuries this week, for a trade. How is that for defensive? Way to front run those POMOs...!!

Leftback said...

Back at the close, cats...
Karen, no new icons for us, angel?

cv said...

@karen

Don't toss away that 60 min. chart ($SPX) just yet because if my calculations are correct, it MAY still be useable...

It would go something like this...

If Neely is correct, (and we do revist the April highs, or even go to 1250 - I think Nic has models like this as well)...

Then... TECHNICALLY, for now... we may see an RSI WAVE BOTTOM (60 min.) that hits around the 27 level...

I'd wait for that to occur, then wait for the first bullish divergence to occur afterwards (whatever PRICE LEVEL that may be - at that point, I'd look for other technical indicators, oe wave counts)...

Anyway... That's the ballpark I'm in right now...

If RSI breaks significantly below 27 on this move... I'd toss everything out and start thinking otherwise...

cv said...

@LB

"LB owns some Treasuries this week, for a trade."...

---

Edit: "LB owns some Treasuries this week, ON THE ECONOMY"...

karen said...

!!! The Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago is suing Bank of America (BAC: 12.255 -0.69%) for allegedly providing misinformation regarding residential mortgage-backed securities sold to the firm between 2005 and 2007.

According to a letter to investors from President and CEO of the FHLBC, Matthew Feldman, the securities listed in the complaint totaled more than $4.3 billion and were all rated triple-A when purchased.

"We contend that the quality of the loans that comprise the pools of securities cited in today's complaints was inconsistent with the description in the pre-purchase documents prepared by the underwriters and issuers of the securities," Feldman wrote.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/19/federal-home-loan-bank-of-chicago-sues-bofa-over-mbs-quality

Escalator Up/Elevator Down said...

"This is why I was telling you to NOT buy silver coins this summer"... :-)

cv said...

@Jennifer

Still holding those CAT puts?

karen said...

From the wire (thanks Rebeltraders):

Tuesday, October 19, 2010 1:50:52 PM
Bank of America Corp NY Fed and PIMCO reportedly requesting a BAC repurchase of mortgages

http://market-ticker.org/post=169659

AmenRa said...

I'd start to get worried if I were bullish. Another hour and the breakers are OFF.

karen said...

zerohedge

Blackrock Too. Total MBS sought to be putback $47 billion.
less than 10 seconds ago via TweetDeck
Reply Retweet

zerohedge
Pimco And New York Fed Said To Seek Bank Of America Mortgage Repurchases http://bit.ly/drJXMT

cv said...

@Amen

While I hate to use this too heavily as the ultimate stopgap...

POMO tomorrow...

So, perhaps a "stick save" that lasts for a day...

but ya never kno, right?

AmenRa said...

Karen

So that's FHLB (Chicago), PIMCO and the NY Fed ganging up on BAC. This should be good for a speed dial call to K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E.

AmenRa said...

CV

China "could" sell the same amount and negate the POMO before it even starts. Just sayin'

Jennifer said...

CV -- no CAT puts...I was way too early on those. But, I'm short RIMM and CLR, long SMN, and I've got puts on FCX, NTAP, NFLX, RHT, and JPM, all of which are behaving nicely for a change. NTAP has a little catching up to do, but I'm not concerned.

Jennifer said...

What just happened?

Jennifer said...

oooh, PIMCO wants BAC to repurchase its crap.

Jennifer said...

I have to leave at 3:30 eastern -- keep up the good work without me -- please!

AmenRa said...

Holy shiznit a -1380 NYSE TICK just happened.

If AAPL doesn't close green there will margin call fever at the close also.

AmenRa said...

CV

The force is strong with the monthly 3LB reversal price :-)

cv said...

@Amen (2:02)

Are you making fun of my (8:31)? :-)

karen said...

i won't be happy till GS is red.. it's a personal thing..

karen said...

zerohedge
New York Fed has gone rogue

mrtopstep
Ny Fed said to seek to force B of A to repurchase $47 billion mrtgs originated by Countrywide - do they have 47billion on hand?

karen said...

where is the flight to safety in gold!!! ??? LOL

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