Sunday Evening Post

Hello Capitalists,

The text here will be minimal in nature because I've spent most of the day attending the Texans/Chiefs game.*

In terms of markets: the "bottom line" is pretty clear. We have not seen any evidence of "bottoming action" in the dollar or "peaking action" in the S&P 500 yet. Neither of those important indexes have come close to retracing more than 23.6% retracements of recent legs, the first requirement to suggest a "trend reversal." So, you'd have to be a real idiot to fade these kinds of movements in the absence of such a reversal indication. So it goes--I've been the idiot. We remain 50% short the S&P500 and 20% long the DXY. These are core positions with a 6-12 month time horizon.

Admittedly, the S&P 500 looks like it has at least a few more weeks before it will ultimately run its course.

* Note to Chiefs Coaching Staff: Do not go into a "prevent" defense with several minutes left in a game where you're only up 10pts. That was one of the poorest strategic decisions I've seen in awhile.




SP500 Update 17 Oct 10

175 comments:

prosciutto gristle said...

Oh well. "And this bird you cannot change."

prosciutto gristle said...

Don't miss John "Fatty" Hussman this week...

Andy T said...

I've got to admit that the commenters at BR's place are getting wilder and wilder.

Here's a snippet from someone named "SDonova" in regard to Greg Mankiw who is basically suggesting that higher taxes are not great:

"This man is obviously more interested in himself than in his country or fellow countrymen and women – I say the loss of his opinions and writings is no loss at all – goodbye, greg, and good luck! Someone else will take your place sooner or later!!"

Not sure if that person realizes that that's the core of communism/marxism...that we must care more for the economic condition of the State than for ourselves.

Wow.

Andy T said...

I feel like publishing something called: "Top 20 Craziest Shit I've Ever Read at TBP."

Just a random perusal of things in the last few weeks ought to do it.

ben22 said...

thanks AT.

Apple chart via Cobra:

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TLtPF38M8VI/AAAAAAAAI4E/170wqy6kY6Y/s1600-h/AAPLERWatch%5B2%5D.png

karen said...

I'm surprised you guys are still attempting to put wave counts on this market : )

wunsacon said...

Andy,

>> Not sure if that person realizes that that's the core of communism/marxism...that we must care more for the economic condition of the State than for ourselves.

- Did he say the "state" or did he say the "country or fellow countrymen and women"?

- What was the point of capitalism if not to improve society as a whole?

- How valuable is your individual wealth if the state's finances go to hell and most everyone around you is poor?

- "Caring for other people" is a human trait. Communists, socialists, and *capitalists* alike claim that their economic system delivers more benefit to society than the other systems. So, I don't see what's so batty about the idea or even why saying would imply that this person is pitching communism.

Andy T said...

Wunsacon--

Free markets and capitalism do improve society. It has been the greatest global wealth creator in the history of mankind.

Indeed, humans are social creatures and our tendencies are to help one another.

But, don't be mistaken, the #1 tendency of 99% of individuals is take care of themselves first and foremost. To suggest or assume otherwise would be a mistake, and it was the critical flaw in Marxist reasoning.

The "sdonova" character suggested that Mankiw, because he didn't want to give more money to Congress (the State), cared more about himself (and his children) than his country or fellow countryman.

I find that line of reasoning very curious and somewhat scary.

cv said...

@Andy T

Re: TBP

I pulled this comment off...

---

Mannwich Says:

October 17th, 2010 at 10:11 pm
Exactly, BR. Nevermind some of the negative nabobs here. Some of them spend a good portion of their time ripping you on OTHER blogs like little school girls (you should probably be flattered though) instead of coming here and doing it. At least AT has the balls to do it here on YOUR blog, but not do it that well, I might add.


---

To that I reply... TO MANNWICH... I know you read this blog... (It's like a car wreck, right? - can't turn your head)...

Anyway - For the record, CV has attempted DOZENS of times over the past months to post a comment over at TBP...

Sadly, TWSWB, doesn't like "dissenting" views (and/or) only publishes dissenting views that are half baked enough for him to get the last word on...

Your ideas apparently either don't mean that much to him, or are simply added as a "check" in the "A AGREE WITH BARRY - BRAVO - WHICH PART OF YOUR ASS DO YOU WANT ME TO KISS NEXT column"...

So... I express "dissenting" viewpoints on this blog instead... I USED to express them in the company of your little mickey mouse club, but again, ran into the same problem...

I hope your ideas of "censoring" opposing viewpoints & argumentative banter work well in creating your new world order...

You all are as hypocritical as BR himself... You cherish though and debate, as long as they are all basically the same SHADE OF PINK that you all seem to enjoy so much...

AmenRa said...

Citigroup beats estimates on reduction of loan loss provisions. So what else is new?

Anonymous said...

@Andy:

"I feel like publishing something called: 'Top 20 Craziest Shit I've Ever Read at TBP.'"

1. Do you want to be right or do you want to make money?

It's hard to make a judgment on which is crazier--blog topics, or comments.

Anonymous said...

I don't thing anyone is surprised that the banks are beating estimates. First, the estimates have been tempered. Second, banks have more accounting discretion than any other industry. The bottom line on the P&L sheet is a ductile number. The only real surprises would be on the top line (estimates of which have also been significantly reduced). Do reductions in loan loss provisions get added back in to revenue, or are they added as some other kind of income?

Contrary to Federal officials and TV commentators, the banks are willing to lend; however, their customers are not as willing to borrow.

AmenRa said...

TYX up 5.53% or 207bps. Long end of the curve starting to get expensive and will end up increasing the amount of interest the US has to pay on its debt.

McFearless said...

bo jackson stayed home this weekend, what a jerk.

McFearless said...

I think they get added in as another type of income anon....the main thing to watch now are the banks operating expenses, Chris Whalen has been putting out some really good research regarding this.

McFearless said...

nice chart from Cobra that has some e-wave charts below (note: Cobra is not an EW guy)

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TLtPBeUfUEI/AAAAAAAAI30/hddRWtPeceo/s1600-h/FXEWeekly%5B2%5D.png

McFearless said...

also, some sentiment via Cobra, he had great charts this weekend:

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TLtPNCeJkZI/AAAAAAAAI4g/99jWqcwFNIA/s1600-h/AAIIBullRatio%5B2%5D.png

McFearless said...

"How valuable is your individual wealth if the state's finances go to hell and most everyone around you is poor?"

guess that would be a fitting question for anyone sitting on the Forbes list that calls the US home, eh?


The tax debate continues to be one of the largest, if not THE largest, distraction from the real issues, imo.

AmenRa said...

Ben

Looking at that last chart the last time it crossed its moving average was mid 2000. Another dot com like crash coming?

AmenRa said...

What happened? Gold was in selloff mode in the AH. Now we're almost back to even. Was it the rumor that South Korea is thinking about increasing their gold reserves?

karen said...

good morning.. i have nothing to say this in case you all hadn't noticed! but i suppose i could point out correlation breakdowns.. then again, maybe they will all line up in the one trade by the close.

karen said...

blogspot tricked me again! thot i'd posted many min ago.. anyway, Karl D says C has essentially zero profit.. wish MW was saying that loudly right now.

http://market-ticker.org/post=169494

McFearless said...

Ra,

I hate to call for crashes and I still think we will go higher before year end, but if we get to 1242 I think the move down will be more violent than it would have otherwise.

A hint of economic data getting better to convince people to get back in as we approach year end:

over the weekend there was a lot of buzz about the news that luxury spending is back above the pre-crisis levels.

McFearless said...

so much for a down monday, at least so far gotta love it.

mcHAPPY said...

@Karen

Denninger has been spot on lately with many of his posts regarding banking. I don't see how the banks are going to be able to continue the charade after quarter 4. The losses appear to be piling up, the cash flow tap is nearly off, lawsuits are piling up, loan loss reserves have already been slashed. I'm sure they'll find a way to 'beat' the 'analysts' but it is going to require more 'creative accounting' i.e. fraud.

McFearless said...

The thing about banks being able to maintain the charade is that it's a lot like trying to label a triangle....it always takes way longer than you originally think it will.

it's deja vu baby!

karen said...

todays topic: The Loss of Trust and the Great Unraveling To Come (oftwominds.com) http://bit.ly/a8en0u

mcHAPPY said...

Funny about deja vu, I've been thinking about now versus April.

In April we had the banks being charged on the 16th. Initial reports from MSM were charges bogus, don't worry, etc. however a couple of weeks later these same 'media' outlets were roasting the bankers over the coals. Stocks tanked initially only to reach new highs.

Look at the last 2 weeks. Foreclosure-gate was dismissed by media intially and stocks continued to rise. Then MSM said wait a second and stocks went down. Now the coast is clear - again. I don't think the outcome will be any different this time around.

I guess you can see how social mood affects the markets. It is funny how all these happenings occur just before or around major fibo's.

karen said...

i'm thinking crude is making a h&s on the hourly over the last two weeks.. $83 shouldn't get exceeded by much.. currencies could back this notion as well..

karen said...

top step equities report:

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/18/equities-report-1018/

karen said...

check the current and nearly done spx 30 min candle (for fun, only : )

karen said...

look at C look at CAT.. doesn't matter.. all the same!

karen said...

YCS at 52 week low.. (short yen etf.)

McFearless said...

I thought they were going to make the yen go down?

karen said...

pension funds leaving stocks?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704540904575451793471885092.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business

Jennifer said...

Herb Greenberg has Reggie Middleton on right now!

McFearless said...

I don't really get these comments about David Rosenberg being "too bearish equities this year"

it's moronic...dude was very bullish bonds and gold coming into the year....so what's the problem?

it's hardly been "easy" in equities this year, so why not find another place to make money AND be right? Is this the new goal, you must call the direction of every asset class or else you fail, even when you make money on your calls?

karen said...

$bkx and the elections : )

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

McFearless said...

wow Karen, talk about a lot of contradiction in just three short para's:

"fleeing stocks for the perceived safety of bonds"

"Instead, many funds are trying to achieve stable returns that more or less keep pace with the plan's obligations"

Sorry charlie, most pension IRR assumptions are on the order of 8% YoY, and you aren't getting that in "safe" bonds so there isn't a way to keep pace with plan obligations in safe bonds... but I do think they are buying junk, probably some munis, etc. The MSM's attempt to lump bonds into one category continues to amaze me.

here's the summary of the article if I were to have written a follow-up:

Pension funds bought stocks at the high and sold them much, much lower, they are about to do the same thing with risky debt.

McFearless said...

AT mentions the terminal C in the updates....good chance we are just going to go right to 1200 before any pullback and even after that the pullback could be small and then 1240....terminal wave of course so if you are dancing when it ends good luck to you,....but that's still a lot of upside from here.

karen said...

okay.. we got a new low in YCS 15.74

karen said...

fxa reversed its down move, too.

McFearless said...

ghost town here today, everyone taking the rest of the year off?

cv said...

I'm back...

Sorry I missed the morning...

I typed a "be back soon" message when I left this morning at 8, but I forgot to hit SUBMIT...

klutz!

McFearless said...

CV,

you are a batard, that's all I have to say to right now.

McFearless said...

also, before anyone starts freaking out...that was in relation to fantasy football, and a joke.

McFearless said...

also...the word is bastard.

though I guess ba tard could be some sort of sheep reference.

AmenRa said...

Geezus only a 7 handle range on the SPX. Definitely a time to sit back and watch. Sooner or later people will realize that when a bank says "manageable" they mean "we're f&*%^d".

cv said...

@McF

You have to get your head back in the game...

I NEED your team to take down Ba Ba Booey next week...

VERY IMPORTANT...

---

You have to admit, in FF, CV gets A LOT out of a little... very economical...

I squeeze every last point each week...

Jennifer said...

I'm here....its good that nothing's going on in the market since family life seems to require a lot of attention right now. No toddlers were accidentally (or on purpose) roasted over the weekend. My 3 year old son overheard my husband joking with my other two children that there were monsters in the closet and he's been up screaming all night long ever since. My oldest, very bright, seems to have decided that here homework is beneath her and we got a weekend phone call from her teacher that even though she is getting 100s on all of her tests she is in jeopardy of some bad report card grades if she doesn't turn in all her missing assignments. The middle child, formerly the one not living up to expectations, seems to be holding up her end of the bargain for right now, thank goodness. I went to Peoria over the weekend and thought nasty thoughts about my loser CAT puts.

McFearless said...

my guys show up every other week, my team is stacked on paper, I think everyone has to admit it, thus far that's translated into a whopping .500 record.

McFearless said...

lol jennifer, your house sounds like it's never dull. I guess three kids will make that happen.

cv said...

@McF

ah yes...

"ON PAPER"... one of my favorite expressions...

cv said...

@mcf

"ON PAPER"...

I'm assuming most Americans think they're going to get through P3 relatively unblemished...

McFearless said...

all I know for sure is

OSU?

hehehehehehe

I feel so bad for terrelle cryer.

cv said...

I got news for you...

In America, people trample other people to death...

TO DEATH!

the day after Thanksgiving while they're cramming themselves into mobs at the stores to get the latest worthless piece of junk from China...

That's how we behave in GOOD TIMES...

McFearless said...

get through P3?....i'd say with a lot of confidence that at this point 99.99999% of America thinks P3 is a pipe dream that can never ever occur, no chance at all.

at least I know my team can win....lol.

but really...Garcon and CJ blowing up....c'mon man!

cv said...

@mcF

I called a few right and a few wrong this weekend...

But I got THAT ONE right...

Jennifer said...

CV -- another plus for online shopping -- barring some freak electrocution accident, no risk of death! I think I'll go buy some Amazon stock. What could go wrong?

Yeah, its pretty much constant chaos around here...

cv said...

@McF

I'm telling you... I've been telling people for 2 years now and still nobody listens...

The "new" paradigm in FF is to get an elite QB, and an elite & full stack of WR's...

Then... go rent yourself RB's & defenses by PLATTOON...

Most people have to do that anyway, because their backs either get injured, are on a BYE week, or have a bad match-up...

MOST feature backs get the chunk of their yards only in selected games... And having a couple of good TOUCHDOWN VULTURES is as good as anything...

Live & learn brother...

McFearless said...

RB's injuries or bad match-ups...? not this week for Bo Jacksons:

Bradshaw, fine, plays Detroit

Gore, fine, plays oakland

forte, fine, plays Rams

my guys just didn't perform.

I've got an elite QB and maybe the best WR in the game....but they sucked this week too.

McFearless said...

I was thinking what the 9ers should have done is sat Gore the first half.

Jennifer said...

Oh -- and my moms' group -- couldn't complete the tax filing. Turns out we never applied for tax exempt status. So glad I went to law school so I can be the one stuck sorting this mess out.

cv said...

@Jennifer

CV has probably only been in a shopping mall once or twice in the last 3 years (that's not an exaggeration)...

I'm practically in Home Depot every weekend tho...

McFearless said...

I was thinking I would do all my holiday gift buying on-line this year. Did most of it that way last year, so much better than going to the mall that time of year.

Jennifer said...

The tilapia don't ask for much...until you start to eat them.

Ritholtz said...

So THIS is where all the little school girls are.

Mannwich told me I'd find you here.

cv said...

@McF

Yeah, your team stunk it up...

I got a little lucky, (but it was "calculated risk", as well)...

Garcon was due for a big game... The Redskins secondary gets "lit up" each week (almost as bad as Houston)...

I got very lucky that Calvin Johnson even played... And I was fearful Aaron Rogers would get pulled at the last minute (or worse, during the game)...

I TRADED for the Steeler defense midweek (so that was a good roster move for me)...

It's all in the details...

cv said...

@Ritholtz (I mean... LB)...

Way to stir the pot...

Jennifer said...

Interesting comments from RR over at Jesse's re:gold. I was looking at JJC -- up, but not really in a 3rd steeper uptrend like KD and Daneric have been pointing out elsewhere. Interesting that JJC is up but FCX is down.

McFearless said...

is this blog war 99 or so?

I've lost count.

McFearless said...

you can thank me for dropping Garcon a few weeks ago.

karen said...

from Sinclair: Central banks are quickly waking up to the fact that gold is a currency.

The other epiphany is that this time gold will, as always, be prone to reactions at key points, but this is no repeat of 1980 for reasons I have told you many times.

South Korean central bank looks to gold
By Christian Oliver and Song Jung-a in Seoul and Jack Farchy in London
Published: October 18 2010 10:24 | Last updated: October 18 2010 16:13

South Korea, holder of the world's fifth-biggest foreign exchange reserves, is considering buying gold to diversify its dollar-heavy portfolio, the country's central bank said, adding it would be cautious in making any final decision.

Even a small realignment of South Korea's reserves would have a powerfully bullish effect on the gold market. With just 14 tonnes of gold - or 0.2 per cent of its $290bn reserves - Seoul is one of the smallest holders of gold among large economies. The world average is 10 per cent, according to the World Gold Council, while countries such as the US, Germany and France hold well over 50 per cent of their reserves in gold.
http://jsmineset.com/2010/10/18/central-banks-wake-up-to-gold-as-a-currency/

karen said...

was just staring at 11111.11..

McFearless said...

I am short more as of today, orders were hit at 1180. this is just a quick trade, I still think we are going higher before this is over.

karen said...

umm. you know.. this is no big volume surge in C..

jenn, re: fxc/jjc/gld.. you aren't still trying to make sense of this market, are you??

karen said...

mrtopstep
Who let the DOGs out?Nothing going here in the SPOOS. 30 locals in the pit 3.5k SPZs and 885k ESZs trade

Jennifer said...

Karen -- no, I'm giving up. I'm trying to make sense of the fact that my 9 year old has 25 little ziploc bags (that weren't locked!) full of now pulverized Club crackers in the bottom of her backpack. Gross. And, we have a mouse in the kitchen. He found a loaf of bread and had himself a party. Nothing makes sense anywhere anymore! Off to preschool.

McFearless said...

the markets make perfect sense right now whether you use my school of thought or try David Teppers or that of Bill Gross.

on the one hand social mood is driving things just as it always does

on the other, it's the Fed, causing huge distoritions and rises in the nominal value of everything...sort of.

karen said...

tradefast - $C slipping

also, Nic has a new blog post up and macro man was great today..

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

A little peanut butter on a sticky trap and he's history. One thing I have learned is keep perishables locked up (plastic bin, cooler, etc) so they can't get to it.


*Plus having a few stray cats always in or around my yard does wonders also.

Anonymous said...

test

cv said...

@McF

Thanks for dropping Garcon :-)...

As for blog wars... Look - Here's my attitude if anyone is interested...

What I have CEASED doing... For quite a long time now, is going to anybody elses blogs and dropping bombs...

As far as Ritholtz is concerned... I don't know what the deal is, but it's been about since last May that whenever I attempt to drop a comment, it gets moderated out, (and never shows up)...

Most, no, ALL, of the time... My comments tended to be critical of Barry himself (but they were ALWAYS topical, and on thread)... 9 times out of 10, I called BR out for being "hypocritical", and mainly attempted to make him RECONCILE various inconsistencies with the thoughts he put out...

I guess he doesn't like being called a hypocrite, but to use one of "his" terms...

I CALLS 'EM AS I SEES EM...

Which makes me laugh, because he's also fond of saying how he doesn't really care WTF people think of him... Well then? Why moderate people who point out that you're often FOS...

As for the other blog?

Frankly, the bottom line is that I never liked any of those peopkle in the first place... This was solidified when I broke off and started publishing this blog that you're posting comments to now...

The bottom line with them is...(cont'd)

cv said...

How ironic is it that I'm called out as a coward for not BEING A MAN and confronting Ritholtz directly... When the truth is...

1. I have... many times... and been MODERATED out of the Ritholtz blog...

2. This person, "calling me out", is NOT doing it here... He's doing it at a 3rd party blog (probably in an effort to draw my comments towards his home turf)...

3. The "home turf", I speak of, is a place where my comments are clearly not welcome, and in fact, I've been asked to stay away...

So I suppose, people... That my only recourse left is to just SHUT DOWN this blog and keep all my thoughts to myself until they conform to the POPULIST MARXIST theme...

No thanks!

McFearless said...

CV,

well thanks for the explanation dude but I could really care less. I had a very enjoyable weekend and just noticed this morning when I came back there were fireworks again. I'm not into telling people how they should talk or think about others or what the "right" way to say those things are. People can think and say whatever the hell they want, who am I to tell them what's "right"?

AS for BR himself, I've got other things to worry about, Barry is just some guy in a few billion.

McFearless said...

CV,

also, this whole "be a man and say it on his blog" thing is really just a big laugh

I suppose I should call Obama every time I have a critical word or two for him as well? How about the guys on my fantasy squad?

those comments were put there to bait you, pretty obvious, at least people are thinking about you, must have left an impression.

Andy T said...

Anyone else notice the bizarre daily candlesticks on the S&P futures last three days. Just looks like big "indecision" type candles...very congestive look all around.

McFearless said...

I dare say indecision here is logical.

karen said...

andy, seems we had a similar set of candles earlier in the month (consolidation?) before moving higher..

I-Man said...

AT,

Yes...

I think thats what it looks like when smart people sell, and dumb people buy.

karen said...

seems like today could be a new closing spx high..

cv said...

@McF

I don't even try to post at TBP anymore (because I've been moderated out so many times)...

Here... I'll flesh out the whole STUPID argument...

"GAY"-Ders Anonymous: "Well sugar, if you weren't such a nattering nabob of negativity, maybe your comments wouldn't be moderated out in the first place... Oh snap! High fives (oh no wait, I just got my nails done)"...

CV: Look - There are only 2 possible responses... I AGREE or I DISAGREE...

There are many things that I actually agree with (or at least in part)... But I leave those alone... Let the "gladhandlers" gladhandle amongst themselves... U don't need my hand in there to add to the gladness...

Most of what I disagree with tends to come down on the side of INCONSISTENCY... (which is another way of saying "hypocrisy")... Unfortunately, those ideas are moderated...

---

To ALL BLOGGERS (in the known universe)...

Let me ask you all a simple question...

Does it meake sense to do QE2 (or whatever "program du jour")... Or... IOW... Do you think it is a GOOD IDEA to solve the debt & derivative problem with more debt and derivatives?

If you think it's a bad idea... Then what you SHOULD be doing is agreeing with me that when faced with a problem like this, the fastest way to deal with it, and go about finding something that will work would be to BLOW IT ALL UP and start from scratch...

If you think TPTB have "good ideas" (or that the situation CAN BE managed), then you do not align with my thinking at all (and frankly, anything you might say would probably be useless to me)...

karen said...

PERFECT video for today:

http://www.tate.org.uk/modern/exhibitions/unileverseries2010/room3.shtm

watch the English video..

karen said...

New Video: Mutual fund Monday up 11 out of the last 12 http://mrtopstep.com/?p=748

McFearless said...

eh....color me a major skeptic on that title, mutual funds had all time record low levels of cash going into the May flash crash....all time record lows.

McFearless said...

I actually think Friday's have been more interesting, I think every single Friday since this recent rally started in early September had been Green until last week.

mcHAPPY said...

The headlines on CNBC's website are hilarious. Do people actually believe them? I guess so since they are the leader in financial 'reporting', er, propaganda-ing.

cv said...

@McF

One thing I've learned in this whole process is that...

If you "say it enough on TV"... people will eventually start to believe it...

Even if they don't actually believe it... They will think that there's some strange force that will allow it into existence just because a bunch of other people are saying it...

That's why Obama is so successful as a liar...

McFearless said...

CV,

too much time on the farm man...why are you so worried about Obama's lies when we have bank lies (see Citi 'earnings') and Apple's continued global dominance to discuss!

obama is just the side show

Jack Conway said...

Hello. I’m Jack Conway, and I’m running for Senate from Kentucky.


As it turns out, 30 years ago, Rand Paul tied up a woman and forced her to bow down before a false idol.


Is this the kind of Senator you people want?

Obama said...

CV,

Corporations really do want to ship all U.S. jobs overseas.

karen said...

I keep checking this post for comments but so far there are none:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/peak-earnings-versus-stock-peaks/

McFearless said...

I had a comment typed up for that and erased it. waste of time.

McFearless said...

but for starters, you guys do realize we dont' report the same kind of earnings we did in 1999 and 2000 right? some of our great masters at S&P caved into pressure on this because of how insane the P/e ratio was getting. so they cut it in half with a reporting change....like we've never seen the rules change in an attempt to shield folks from bad news, ROR.

the "operating earnings" clarifier is extremely important but I suppose we'll just extrapolate past trends and ingore these kinds of details, funny thing though, if one does their homework they will see how unbelievably overvalued stocks were in 2000, funny how our "best and brightest" base estimated stock valuation on that same trend though!

karen said...

today is the lockhart rally..

McFearless said...

the orthodox counters are slowly starting to adopt Neely's count with the orthodox labels....it's getting really interesting.

McFearless said...

think today about all the young people that used the tax credit to buy a first home in 2009 and realize the following:

1. rates are lower now, but very unlikely many, if any of them, can refi, or that it would make financial sense.

2. in many cases it's likely they have seen their home value drop, making the tax credit worthless or worse yet, a risk if they lose a job and can't stay in the home.

wait till that segment of the population starts to figure en masse that they will be looked upon to shore up SS, pensions, and the gapin holes in the state budgets, all the while their own financial future is "on them".

McFearless said...

looks like 5 of 3 of C now.

few more months bears before the big one....

McFearless said...

one day one of these shorts will stick, lol, stopped for a tiny loss for now. I'm a monkey...what can I say.

karen said...

perhaps meaningless but jnk lowered its dividend by a penny for the 4th month in a row..

cv said...

@mcF

"I had a comment typed up for that and erased it. waste of time. "...

C'Mon... POST it already [the comment]...

Nobody cares whether ot not it's a waste of time... What's IMPORTANT is that you have to "BE A MAN"...

So go ahead, post your worthless ideas in the spirit of being one... (and don't forget to use your dogs name, or a hearty canned beef by-product dinner as your blogging ID to PROVE what a man you are)...

That way, all the people around the internet, between spouting gems of economic pearls of wisdom, can spend their time digging up 20 years of videos on YOU TUBE of you...

Cause, you know... That's what REAL men do!

McFearless said...

meh....so I point out we aren't using the same earnings but the chart treats them the same.....ho hum. next.

I'd so much rather discuss my losing trades with my buddies here.

McFearless said...

anyone watch the Phils last night?

getting pretty awesome

cv said...

@McF

I'm so "footballed out" by the end of the weekend, I can't get in to watching baseball games...

Bud Selig has it TOTALLY wrong (trying to program the ALCS & NLCS championship series on WEEKENDS, and going up against football)...

cv said...

Of course... If they were to schedule CRICKET matches... It would all be different...

Fantasy CRICKET...

Now that could become big time!

McFearless said...

couple of guys I know had the best of both worlds yesterday, birds game early, phils game at night, just walk across the street.

DL said...

“hearty canned beef by-product dinner as your blogging ID to PROVE what a man you are”.

. . . . . . . .

O.K., from now on, my screen name will be ALPO.

McFearless said...

DL,

We've got a cat. I call Friskies as my new handle.

karen said...

it doesn't look at tho tbt is going to change its trend:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&id=p38298062762&def=N&listNum=1

karen said...

http://247wallst.com/2010/10/18/wal-mart-raising-billions-via-debt-sale-wmt/

so much money, so few places for it to go..

McFearless said...

for all of your reading pleasure:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Warren-Buffett-Buying-cnbc-1784378699.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

karen said...

from Karl D.. leave it to cnbc to sensationalize but whatever..

http://market-ticker.org/post=169530

cv said...

Welcome to the kennel...

Anonymous said...

Losing trades, eh? I have been getting stopped out repeatedly on long USD. Phew, today has been weird.
Patience, waiting.

Prashant

karen said...

take it back.. the attorney interviewed was straight forward..

McFearless said...

it's going to take many months though for anyone to realize what KD is talking about there, that's how all these types of things are happening sloooow.

cv said...

@karen

I think WB has a "thing" for Becky Quick... In a creepy old man kind of way...

McFearless said...

yeah...stops. I lost .5% on mine today....shitty trade, my fault.

McFearless said...

I just started watching the video but where does a family with (did they say 8 kids???) just come up with 100k to catch up?

that doesnt' just happen....something seems wrong, but I'll keep watching...

McFearless said...

also, MCC is pretty close to unbearable for me.

karen said...

check the DIA-spy-QQQQ volume.. or lack of.. with 30 min to go..

cv said...

@McF (3:14)

See... That's sort of what's at the root of all the complaints that I've listed above...

OK - Here's the run down

- It'll take many months to unravel
- Somebody will GET PAID to unravel it
- I'm NOT GETTING PAID to unravel it
- Amateurs will blog about it (you know... CONCERNED CITIZENS)...
- Most of their thoughts & comments will be unadulterated crap...
- There will be plenty of talk of dogs & beach balls in the process
- The market will have a 2-1 ratio of green candles to red candles in the process of unraveling
- EXPERTS will be on the ait to tell you why...
- Only now, it'll be "Stocks were up on THE ECONOMY"... "Stocks were red on "THE ECONOMY"... "Stocks were down due to worries of the FORECLOSURE MESS"... "Stocks were down because of hope that THE FORECLOSURE MESS will be resolved...
- 6 months from now, when QE2 fails to do anything, then they'll use THE FORECLOSURE MESS as a reason to do QE3
- They'll say that "nobody saw it coming"
- If the Democrats are in office, it'll be the GOP's fault...
-If the GOP is in office, it'll be the Democrats fault...
- We all know that it's REALLY Bush's fault...
- BR will be the last to the party with his concerned views, and half plagarized add-ons...
- A bunch of yo-yos will comment on what a genius he is (for saying what KD did 6 months before)
- If anybody calls BR on it, the comment will be moderated...

Rinse Repeat...

karen said...

spy 30 min candles are UFB.. I am a believer.. this market cannot go down. $spx could have another 100 pts upside..

cv said...

@McF

"also, MCC is pretty close to unbearable for me"

Once again... my young grasshopper... you miss the point...

MCC isn't supposed to say anything intelligent... You're just supposed to keep your eyes fixed on the plunging neckline...

McFearless said...

effing disaster, what else can I say?

Also, it's odd sitting here today with PIMCO's holdings release for total return fund, I now have a multi-million dollar defacto bet for clients on QE2....

cv said...

Oh wait...

And add to my (3:24)

Harry Wanger will manage to "price it all in" and buy and sell all AAPL stock to within ticks of the highs & lows...

and everybody here will LAMENT that we're SMART & RIGHT, instead of wanting to MAKE MONEY...

CV will have stocked a few more bags of rice in the process...

McFearless said...

also, the greatest flaw of Keynes and his ideas?

Easy

dependence on politicians to enact them properly .....duh.

AmenRa said...

CV

HW has been in full force at ZH the past few weeks. I scroll right by without a second thought.

karen said...

the kostin chart is bugging me.. during dot.com, earnings were overstated and books were cooked. period.. history has reveled.. likewise in 2006-07. NONE OF IT WAS REAL.. and here we are again.. with mark to make believe accounting and an imaginary S&P eps.. whatever..

karen said...

remember 1087-1088.. not sure we can push thru there.

McFearless said...

karen,

earnings became meaningless as soon as we switched to OPer. E's.....c'mon, this doesn't lots of important balance sheet items....like non-recurring charges.

right...so you run a business, and in 2010 you get hit with a $1 billion charge....Nah...that doesn't matter right...non-recurring!

how about the debt it doesn't include on the balance sheet, think that might matter given that companies have all time record levels of debt right now?

I could keep going, but that chart is retarded, enough said.

McFearless said...

doesn't include....

AmenRa said...

Lowest volume on QQQQ since 8/9/10.

cv said...

Today ought to be the 1.618...

In days...

from the April highs to the summer lows...

We also tagged just under 1186 (the MONTHLY 3lb reversal)...

Remember the "It's a long month" wraps Amen?... :-)

McFearless said...

did people happen to watch over BB's speech from last week?

his assumptions are just laugh your ass off funny, at least to me, he seems to truly believe consumers are going to rush out and buy things in expectation of higher prices....physics and Ben Bernanke...a solid match if there ever were one.

heck, CV can't even get people to buy food telling them won't have anything to eat if they don't now....you think everyone is going to rush out and buy just because prices may go up at some point?

come on man!

I-Man said...

Even studs like I-Man have shit days when they trade against the intraday trend...

Why do I feel like I've learned this lesson before???

Damn bias... damn daily charts...

McFearless said...

yeah, like this as 5 of 3 of C, it's right in GN's box....I think he has nailed the count.

karen said...

http://ilene.typepad.com/ourfavorites/2010/10/oils-not-well.html

In Member Chat, we discussed the possibility of a pullback in oil next week as the barrel count on the NYMEX is dangerously high with over 600M barrels currently scheduled to deliver to Cushing in the next 90 days. Cushing has a capacity of about 40M barrels a month and they are full but, even if they weren’t, 480M barrels need to be dumped and rolled into Feb, March and April contracts between now and the year’s end.

The November contracts settle on Wednesday, the 20th, and any traders caught holding those "hot potato" contracts have to figure out what they will actually do with millions of barrels of oil. Right now, there are 141M barrels earmarked for November delivery and, if this month is typical, only about 20M are actually needed. 141,000 contracts (1,000 barrels each) were traded 210,000 times on Friday as prices fell from $84.12 at 3am (Asia trading) to $80.75 into the NYMEX close. It is easier for a NYMEX trader to drink a barrel of oil than fob off his contracts to some other sucker during a glut - or something like that is the old biblical saying…

wunsacon said...

>> Free markets and capitalism do improve society.

So does socialism, unless by "society" you mean a privileged few.

And we've never had truly "free markets" and capitalism the way it's pushed today. So, for the last 10,000 years, you'll have to chalk up technological progress (wealth) to other explanations.

>> It has been the greatest global wealth creator in the history of mankind.

Perhaps "war" has been the greatest global wealth creator, because it spurs technological innovation more than any other concern.

>> The "sdonova" character suggested that Mankiw, because he didn't want to give more money to Congress (the State), cared more about himself (and his children) than his country or fellow countryman. I find that line of reasoning very curious and somewhat scary.

I doubt his reasoning was that simple, had you probed him.

...

You know...

Though I'm an atheist, I really like some things Jesus said. But, it doesn't mean I'm itching for a theocracy.

Similarly, some people (myself included) like mandatory sharing of the dividends thrown off by the system. But, it doesn't mean I'm itching for 100% state ownership of business. If I were to "bitch" about some economist engaged in justifying selfish behavior for billionaires, it doesn't mean I'm itching for Marxism.

cv said...

Gotta go peeps...

FWIW... CV likes JACKSONVILLE (+3) over the Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks tonight for (4 units)...

I know... That sounds crazy... Because ON PAPER Tennessee beats Jacksonville soundly...

But that's why they play the game, right?

77% of the publics hard earned cash is on Tennessee (and yet the line hasn't budged)... Hmmm...

---

I had a decent weekend picking NCAA games (5-2), yet I lost money... Classic! CV would evidently rather BE RIGHT than MAKE MONEY...

I was 6-7-1 on NFL picks (waaaaaay below my standards), but I did very poorly in unit picks... Houston cost me 5 units by a half a point... grrr...

So... This game is (4 units), and I'm going it alone... But just so you know... I'm not "doubling down" here (4 units), is what I'd planned to put down all along...

For those of you "on paper" Tennessee dudes... Consider this...

Jacksonville has already beat the Colts and Denver (at home) this year... Denver almost knocked off the Jets yesterday save for a wild comeback...

The Titans beat Dallas last week... But whoop-de-doo... Dallas is 1-4 and the talk of the sportsworld as to WHAT'S WRONG with them...

This will be the first night HOME game in Jacksonville since 2007...

I'm hoping that atmosphere will keep the fans in the game (like it did with the Chiefs in week 1)...

The Jags can stay tied with the Colts & Texans for the lead in the division with a win...

Just saying...

karen said...

naz .48%
indu .73%
spx .72%

not exact but close.. probably a bit of human error there but spx and indu tracked within .01% thru the close.

72bat said...

on a lark, followed a zero hedge link to mers (a non-profit .org?) website and found this on homepage (my bolding)
"Welcome to MERS!
MERS is an innovative process that simplifies the way mortgage ownership and servicing rights are originated, sold and tracked. Created by the real estate finance industry, MERS eliminates the need to prepare and record assignments when trading residential and commercial mortgage loans."
so you say!

McFearless said...

"Perhaps "war" has been the greatest global wealth creator, because it spurs technological innovation more than any other concern"

time to bust out the socionomic history books, maybe later this week, not a true statement here, but there is an answer.

karen said...

back for the aapl party in a few!

AmenRa said...

CV

It got close and there are 9 trading days left in the month. Just because we may get above it doesn't mean the month will close above it.

karen said...

smsearsBarrons
the trend is your friend, and so is Uncle Ben at the Fed, but stick to liquid names and don't venture off after most rumors.
less than 20 seconds ago via web

smsearsBarrons
one cannot argue with a rising tape BUT this market is filled with more garbage than the Fresh Kills landfill on Staten Island.

cv said...

@Amen

Righto...

I think the number ought to hold as an attraction line though...

That is... even if there is a throwover for the next 9 days, I'd expect it to come reeling back...

I think it's going to be important come the last trading day of the month...

One of those inexplicable things that only Harry Wanger knows how to price in...

McFearless said...

you know there is some big money waiting for 1200 now just to dump shares, they just know that objective will be hit....volume says they are sitting waiting for higher prices.

karen said...

ibm and vmw down on earnings..

McFearless said...

http://animalspiritforecasts.blogspot.com/2010/10/1018-301.html

The 3:00 SP futures close was 1178.50. Stop SP futures at 1181.50. Stop 6% SDS at DJI 11,176.
POMO funds do not settle until the following day. The POMO effect is not from liquidity but from the psychological effect of the announcement. 2:00 magic hour is just an ingrained, self-reinforcing expectation. In other POMOs 2:00 saw the dollar, silver, and gold reacting along with the stock market. This time there was no effect in these markets. When the reaction becomes so tepid that even the stock market can't suck in traders then the game is up.
I haven't been a believer in POMO, not because I doubt the effect but because I follow the money. If the receipts were being plowed into the markets it would be perceived the following day.

Ritholtz said...

I hate CV (Crappy Vagina). Quit crapping in my toilet (ritholtz.com).

PS: I hate the Phillies and puppies.

McFearless said...

lets hope we see the yankees in the series this year, I'd love RH to toss another no-no against that group of assholes.

McFearless said...

not that it matters that was a big drop in margins for apple, I'm sure they'll make it up at X-mas. I'll probably buy at least four or five pad thingies.

McFearless said...

and dont' look now, but maybe the dollar is pissed and looking for someone to steamroll.

Andy T said...

Wonder when all the "pros" realize that they're all long AAPL in one way or another?

Andy T said...

"Bank of America says it plans to start re-submitting foreclosures in 23 states next week, and that all in all the foreclosure-gate stuff will affect about 30,000 mortgages. A spokesperson told WSJ that it had not found a single case of a foreclosure without justification."

Wonder if that's real or not.

karen said...

Andy.. taking my empty 1.75 L of Ketel One out to the recycle, LOL.. gonna bury it : )

ben22 said...

who knows AT, color me a skeptic after watching that video today...those peole simply were not paying it seems, but their out is that there was a paperwork issue, making them the ones who "really" got screwed?,.... and I still want to know where that magic $100k came from that allowed them to catch up.

Andy T said...

ben22: yeah, that was an interesting one. I noticed that..."And we caught up by 100k."

I was saying to myself: "What the fuck? Where did you get that kind of scratch if you were falling behind on mortgage in the first place?"

There are a lot of "footnotes" in a lot of these various stories.

Andy T said...

@karen. I've been more on a "Gin" run lately. Been enjoying the Tangueray and Bombay. For some reason, been tasting better than the Vodka to me.

ben22 said...

speaking of, I hear Octomom is getting foreclosed on, apparently with that football team behind her it got a little rough making her $4,800/month mortgage payment.

probably 100% banks fault though

karen said...

curiosity got the best of me and i logged back in to see aapl in AH.. GS AND BAC before open tomorrow.. not to mention KO and JNJ.. COF up in AH on their fantasy "earnings"...

wunsacon said...

>> Octomom is getting foreclosed on

Did you see the ZH post regarding the Earls??

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/clusterfuck-complete-meet-those-most-hurt-earls-squatting-conejo-capital-partners-and-soon-m

9 friggin kids and they buy a $500k home?

Jennifer said...

I had some interesting magically dissapearing last ticks on my charts today...SPY was down something like 40 points there for a minute or two...

Reverse Mortgage said...

Very insightful post.

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