Sunday Evening Post & Monday Morning Audibles

Good Evening All,

It was an interesting week with the S&P Cash market failing to take out the 1131 once again. That level is indeed the "Ultra Pivot." It's worth pointing out, however, that the futures DID take out the proposed "neckline" in the pre-market on Friday morning and then FAILED. It looked quite bearish pre-market, but the cash index "hung in there" before the weekend.

It was several weeks ago when I suggested that we were in the middle of "choppy" and complex period--that has definitely been the case. At this point, though, we seem to be nearing the end of the "choppy" period and it seems like a good idea to increase our short position. We'll be going from a 20% Max Short to a 30% Max Short this evening.

The DXY took an unexpected dip this week that stopped me out of all DXY length. I still like that market for a long side bet, but the pattern is a little too confusing at this point. It's something that will need more analysis this week.

Random "Football" Thought: Can anyone beat Chelsea? The Blues seem somewhat unstoppable at this point. They are 5-0 having scored 17 times and allowing only ONE goal. Those are some gaudy numbers.


---


CV adds, 9.20.10... As ususal, I'll let Andy's column stand as the Monday Morning Audibles in the abscence of some major news event...


CV is looking, "hoping" really, for the end of this 8+% in September... I should be happier this weekend because it ended up positive versus the bookie, & all 3 of my fantasy teams won (well - one isn't over yet, but the other guy needs the Saints to basically shut down the 49ers, and engineer 4 sacks 4 turnovers and a trip to the end zone)... But ya never know... 


Put it this way... that's about what the dollar needs to get going (and to get a correction in PM's), but we all know where that's going...


The downside (to my weekend)... Is only that I put about 6 hours of work into the yard on Saturday morning (mostly leaf duty)... Left to move some furniture to the farm... Come back this morning and there are now more leaves down than when I left Saturday... Kinda feels like trying to "short" any asset prices...


Nobody wants me to attach any Bloomberg headlines here because they would just piss you off... Or, if your thinking lines up with certain hues of pastel... You could debate them as functioned reasoning... I don't have time...


There - now I feel better :-)... ROR


Good Luck Trading!

Some sage words from Milton Friedman.....




S&P Update 19 Sep 10

338 comments:

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CV said...

@ben

Yeah someday (with my gold), I'm hoping to start my own country with my own constitution and all...

You know... so some half baked wannabe NBA commissioner can mosey on in 200 years later and tell me it's full of crap...

McFearless said...

Karen,

well, at least you are sensible about it. How many times have you heard someone cry in the last year:

It's all rigged, "they" rigged the market

then you ask those folks, so what are you doing

Well, I'm in Apple and I own a few shares of Citi........


point is, nobody ever got hurt moving to the sidelines

karen said...

this is wild: Munger Says ‘Thank God’ Bailouts Came Before Handouts (Update1) and note the foto they used!!

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aX_2CN5uwwQU

karen said...

we are now living in SURREAL TIMES.. adapting to this won't be easy.

CV said...

BIDU at all time highs... again...

CV said...

Let's see... Only a 9 bagger off the '08 lows...

karen said...

1 more penny and someone can have 10k of my nxg shares.

McFearless said...

you know it's funny some bitch with an anon handle would say something like that, I could easily point out though that DL was correct and bullish on the metals, and was pretty vocal about it as well, so one could have just as easily listened to him instead of me, I'm not sure why I would or should carry any weight, I'm nobody.

oh well, I'm sure it likely someone from the other site, or someone here trying to start a new flame war between the two sites this week, as some people seem to get kicks out of that.

72bat said...

munger: “Now, if you talk about bailouts for everybody else, there comes a place where if you just start bailing out all the individuals instead of telling them to adapt, the culture dies.”
yeah, charlie, some pigs are more equal than others

karen said...

bat.. that was the quote that infuriated me the most.. i could barely see straight to skim the rest..

CV said...

x2

McFearless said...

Munger can eff himself along with Warren, just two more of the wealthy elite telling all us peasants whats good for us.

arbitrage789 said...

McFearless,

You know anyone there in Delaware who’s going to vote for Christine O’Donnell?

CV said...

Funny thing is...

CV "believes" in the SUCK IT UP philosophy that Munger espouses...

... Let's start with the banks, then move on to politicians...

start SUCKING IT UP bitchez!

karen said...

spy needs to tag 115 to fill gap, i believe.. 114.01 so far.

McFearless said...

"You know anyone there in Delaware who’s going to vote for Christine O’Donnell?"

I've had a few clients tell me they would vote for her, and I do hear a lot of people talking about her when I go out but I don't think she can win. In general it would seem more people would support Coons at this point. DE is really two states, lower DE is a lot different than where I'm at so maybe she's more popular down there.

I believe only 13% of the state of DE is registered Republican so for her to win the primary was one thing, but it'll be another to beat a Dem like Coons that has some history here in the state.

karen said...

according to MS..Sixteen US companies best positioned for the opportunities in China: Nike (NKE), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Yum! Brands (YUM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Pfizer (PFE), Medtronic (MDT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple (AAPL), Marvell (MRVL), Dow Chemical (DOW), Mosaic (MOS), General Dynamics (GD), Emerson Electric (EMR), Caterpillar (CAT), FedEx (FDX), and Diana Shipping (DSX).

better buy before you are priced out!

karen said...

that MS report makes me want buy fxp immediately..

McFearless said...

got some Dow Theory non-confirmation going on right now, close is a long ways away though, the week has started off just like discussed here on Friday.

72bat said...

cv -
"Let's start with the banks, then move on to politicians..."
PER-ZACTLY!
equity holders zero'ed out first, bondholder haircuts next, then we'll talk about taxpayers ponying up...

McFearless said...

DSX, lol, anyone else know that stock over the last few years....funny enough the dividend went poof (like magic) but I'm quite certain they bought some new boats.....at the top.

McFearless said...

internally O'donnell isn't getting much love from the DE GOP, it would seem.

karen said...

114.7266 will fill the spy gap.. fyi

karen said...

new cat high today too!!

CV said...

@karen

Well if you want to get into gap closing on SPY...

There's one up at 119 as well... gulp...

karen said...

cv.. just bot a second piece of sds.. do you really think i want to see those gaps closed??!!

CV said...

Let me guess...

You'd like the 105 gap closed first... right?

CV said...

FWIW

1114 is 61.8% of the distance between closing both of the aforementioned gaps...

CV said...

excuse me... 114 (spy)

AmenRa said...

Here we are at new highs and yet TICKS haven't made a new high since this morning. The TRIN is in overbought territory. There is nothing supporting this move.

Note to algos: I'm super bullish and you can't stop me. Let's see if that works.

karen said...

those algo trade is such synchronicity! gotta luv 'em: 1.32/1.26/1.31% up

McFearless said...

Ra,

I think you had some squeeze going on, you know all the smarties that didn't set stops at 1131, they had them at 1135-1137 instead. they still had to cover either way....

CV said...

@Amen

Let's see if this works...

BULLISH... BUY... 1300... DOW 36,000... NEW HIGHS... CRAMER... OBAMA... HOPE... RECESSION OVER...

BULLISH... BUY... 1300... DOW 36,000... NEW HIGHS... CRAMER... OBAMA... HOPE... RECESSION OVER...

BULLISH... BUY... 1300... DOW 36,000... NEW HIGHS... CRAMER... OBAMA... HOPE... RECESSION OVER...

BULLISH... BUY... 1300... DOW 36,000... NEW HIGHS... CRAMER... OBAMA... HOPE... RECESSION OVER...

BULLISH... BUY... 1300... DOW 36,000... NEW HIGHS... CRAMER... OBAMA... HOPE... RECESSION OVER...

karen said...

good thinking, ben.. i can go for that..

McFearless said...

that's some philly music right there

maneater, also an awesome tune.

CV said...

@karen

technically... the song is "I CAN'T go for that"

no can do...

arbitrage789 said...

My betting at present is that we get a "lame duck" session (in November or December) that extends the Bush tax cuts for everyone, for a period of two years. Obama probably doesn't want it to happen before the election.

karen said...

CV!! don't wreck it !! Can/Can't I have any fun??

AmenRa said...

The .1459 from Fridays close is 1142.01. Todays high is 1142.02. Go figure.

AmenRa said...

Uh oh. May have spoke too soon...

CV said...

@DL

It's inconceivable (to ME at least), that obama has the "faintest clue" as to what direction any mapped out policy decision may take...

Perfect example (football as reference)...

Yesterday... Darelle Revis went down with a hamstring injury...

What do the Patriots do? Instead of AVOIDING his side (like they had been doing - with success - in short passes to Wes Welker & the TE on the other side)... They react by sending a bunch of balls in the direction of Randy Moss...

None of it worked... The Jets took an advantage and closed them out...

Titans vs. Steelers?

It's 90 degrees in Nashville (so the Titans go with their WHITE jerseys - in order to make Pittsburgh were BLACK and sweat & suffer)...

Mentally? Titans RELAX and commit 7 turnovers, and a costly penalty that gets an 85 yards TD run called back...

It's NEVER what you think...

CV said...

"wear" BLACK

McFearless said...

internally today the market would appear to be losing momentum, I think this will be more obvious by the end of the week, that said, I'm not sure we should expect all that much from the pullback, it's entirely possible that this was only the intial kick off of some larger C wave....hate to say it, but charts is charts

arbitrage789 said...

CV @ 3:08

"Soaking the rich" is an attempt to get registered Democrats out to the polls.

CV said...

@all

Remember that PREMARKET print that I was telling you all about on Friday?

SPY 114.18???

Guess what today's high is?

CV said...

@DL

Gee... I wonder when "being a good legislator" will be a technique used to get people to the polls...

Novel idea right? Perhaps TOO novel...

72bat said...

jesse on silver

karen said...

could this be Andy T? LOL..

http://dlisted.com/node/38917

McFearless said...

AT,

I'm studying the Neely book now and have a question if you are around/see this:

forget about exact degree right now but if I mark the top of April as an A wave high and the recent lows (not the 1010, but the august lows) as the end of wave B, what are the rules for how high the C wave can travel?

karen said...

well, cv.. we broke that spy target.. mine is up next : )

Cold Steel said...

Knock Knock....

It's me. Bend over, Mr Shorty.

CV said...

Today you get a dark cross on UUP (50 crossing over 200)...

karen said...

it is a 1.5% up day, do you know where your watermelon-lime juice is?

karen said...

nobody wants my remaining 9991 shares of dht : (
unloaded over 17k of nxg however..

Leftback said...

POMO baby.

All that money has to go somewhere.
Bonds, gold, stocks, oil.

PUMP.. then dump.

Leftback said...

K is selling to the big boys, for sure, today.
JOHNNY taking nine of what K has to offer.

LB would bid for all your assets if you change your icon again.

CV said...

Looks like the S&P isn't the only thing hooked on coke & amphetamines...

http://www.tmz.com/2010/09/20/lindsay-lohan-drug-test-amphetamine-cocaine-probation-addict-addiction-adderall/

McFearless said...

AT,

if I'm interpreting correctly the C wave might go above the April A wave, however, it doesn't "have" to...

is this correct?

and would that be called a Terminal C wave?

This book is way more hardcore than EWP.

karen said...

this is fantastic: http://www.smbtraining.com/blog/will-the-real-level-please-stand-up-know-your-market

Leftback said...

What's odd is that today is RISK-OFF in credit.

Ts leading corporates. That may be telling us it is getting late in the swing. Also there is decoupling between carry and equities.

It's BRIAN, baby. BRIAN SACK, that is.

72bat said...

sooo happy to have unloaded dto last friday afternoon

I-Man said...

I've never seen a more disgusting example of a painted tape...

And its not "disgusting" just because its UP, its disgusting because there hasnt been a single pullback worth buying all damn day...

WHO TRADES LIKE THAT???

CV said...

can I get an "A"... A

can I get an "L"... L

can I get a "G"... G!

Brian Sack said...

WHO TRADES LIKE THAT???

Well, I'm not really supposed to answer that... we have FREE markets.
Government NEVER intercedes in FREE markets.

But you can read my memoirs.

arbitrage789 said...

May have been a lot of shorts at the 1130 level. They're getting cleaned out now.

CV said...

Oh no wait...

There's a huge hedge fund out there called THE ELECTIONS...

It has dark pools of capital that are in full deployment at the moment...

... and there are blogs dedicated to the TECHNICAL aspects of it...

McFearless said...

what happens to the POMO day record if the market is trending down?....well, lets see:

8/19 Open at 1092 on S&P cash, close at 1075
8/24 Open at 1063 on S&P cash, close at 1051
8/26 Open at 1056 on S&P cash, close at 1047

so POMO appears to "work" when the market is trending up, it doesn't get mentioned when it FAILS in a downtrend.

these arguments sound just like the cash on the sidelines arguments, like the POMO blowing up a hot air balloon.

McFearless said...

"WHO TRADES LIKE THAT???"

A:

computers programmed by people that think they have broken the market down to a science.

PS:

Wait till we get to see how they SELL.

I-Man said...

Today is also a perfect example of why you dont fade intraday highs... its been gang rape of shorts all day trying to fade each spike.

There is always a lower high to sell.

McFearless said...

"Ts leading corporates. That may be telling us it is getting late in the swing. Also there is decoupling between carry and equities."

this would match the loss of upside momentum you can see internally on stocks.

karen said...

oh bat.. you could have bot back today! i almost did but missed the dip to 75.69.. would rather rebuy in 71-74 range, however.

Leftback said...

We are looking at 1150 - 1175 area as a place for this run-up to stall.
Overbought indicators flashing. Credit not leading. FX decoupled.

Leftback said...

Today is also a perfect example of why you dont fade intraday highs

We have all learned much, and become wise, grasshopper.

McFearless said...

DL,

there is no doubt about it, the Vix may be down but put premiums are certainly not cheap, there were still lots of shorts out there going into today I think.

karen said...

the latest:

http://www.tmz.com/2010/09/20/lindsay-lohan-failed-drug-test-cocaine-probation-revoked-bench-warrant/

arbitrage789 said...

Doesn't the "turtle" method say to buy the "breakout", i.e., the breakout of trading ranges?

arbitrage789 said...

Yes, I’m shocked and appalled that Lindsay Lohan does cocaine.

Whatever happened with that lawsuit against Etrade?

Leftback said...

LB had to stay in an "apartment hotel" in London, south of Tower Bridge in a nabe where angels once feared to tread. It was a pleasant stay in a rapidly gentrifying area and the rest of the city was clearly booming.

Austerity is on the way in the UK but London's banker culture has been reined in even less than Wall Street. Party on, Giles...

Linzie Lowhan said...

DL

I do anything I can snort, suck or swallow.

karen said...

DL.. the lawsuit: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67O1E820100825

CV said...

The LATEST latest...

KAREN doesn't read CV's (3:23)

karen said...

CV.. i did read yours and then received what i thot was a later report from breaking news..

McFearless said...

AT,

one more question if you get to this.

in that count that I mention above, if we were to gap up tomorrow morning into the 1150 level, would you then normally assume that wave 1 would end up being the longest wave of the C wave?

karen said...

but what i really wanted to say was that the spy did not tick higher on the $spx high of day.

McFearless said...

"I do anything I can snort, suck or swallow."

But are you as bad as keith Richards, he apparently snorted his father's ashes, which is insane.

karen said...

for now i remain fixated on 114.7266

McFearless said...

it appears we will get the non-confirmation on Dow Theory, unless the trannies gap up at the close....

karen said...

only 10 minutes remain for today's spx to turn into June 21.. i swear this was a quadruple witch save by the PPT.

CV said...

@McF

If what you're trying to "get at" is to use 1040 as the B wave (instead of 1010)...

I like 1010 for one reason and one reason only...

Last year we did the 2010 PREDICTIONS...

My "low" prediction for 2010 was 840...

So...

- 1220-1010= 210
- 210 x 1.618 = 339.78
- 840 + 339.78 = 1,179.78

So we can't go much higher than that... (it also lines up near the MONTHLY 3lb reversal)... 1186 I think...

---

In my best Keaneau Reeves (Johnny Utah - Point Break)...

"It's gotta be that way" - lol

Cold Steel said...

Say my name, Mr Shorty.... you know you love the ramping.

AmenRa said...

MUST...MAKE...THE...QUARTER...

That's the only thing happening right now. SPY is still having one the the lowest volume days in the past few weeks.

CV said...

It's only 3% away... from here...

That's like, one good trading day in THE INDICES

Leftback said...

MUST...MAKE...THE...QUARTER...

Performance, baby. BONUSES are early, BITCHEZ !!

CV said...

which are "leading"... by the way (those INDICES)

I-Man said...

@ DL 3:36

Re: turtle

I'm not sure about that, but I'm not a master of their strategies by any means, if there is even one rule book... there's alot of turtles out there, and they all seem to have their own different takes on what pure trend following is.

I'd say a pure trend follower would already be long in a consolidation range, and would probably take the retest of a range breakout to add to a position.

Or better yet, add on a NO retest of a breakout... of the 3 white soldier variety on good vol... niceness.

Our shop is certainly what I'd call a trend following outfit... we do not fade highs and lows. Period.

Two lower highs and some liquidation volume and its on, though.

CV said...

@McF

If 1040 was the number... Then the ROLLOVER (to make my number would have had to have happened at 1131)...

karen said...

well, however it worked.. the remaining shares on my limit sell for dht were just taken. computers at work needing my shares to fill in?? whatever. just let me out of here. LOL

Cold Steel said...

Loved ya all today, Bears... same time, same place tomorrow?

McFearless said...

C,

yeah, with the count I'm trying to apply I'm not using 1010 as the B wave low, it would appear according to NEO wave that's the correct way to count it, but I need to defer to AT on Neely because it's just too new to me.

CV said...

@McF

Well don't get yourself wrapped up in my numbers... I'm just "doodling" on a master design...

Later SKI-DADDYS...

Looks like the market wants to test Andy's theory as to how high a body might bounce if it's dropped from a 10 story building instead of the 6th floor...

I'll take the 49ers and the points tonight (with the Saints probably squeaking by for a win)...

McFearless said...

@cold steel,

now now, most people here were looking for gap up this week, AT's updates indicated the same, go back to hanging with the pros and talking shit about the "other blog" ....at, the other blog.

douche bag

karen said...

yeah, i gotta get outta here, I'm 18

McFearless said...

too many bears:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/shirakawa/MAB%202.jpg

McFearless said...

karen,

I sort of like you better as a Billion Dollar Baby.

8-)

karen said...

Ben, i am 99.9% certain that cold steel is lb.. tho it could be CV.. LOL..

I'm really mad/annoyed that people change identities, too, btw.

karen said...

Is this the best news, or what?! i know, right?!

"Major U.S. indexes end up more than 1% after recession declared dead; Dow's up 146 points"

I-Man said...

B,

Re: chart

Totally...


Regardless of the trading discussion above, this type of one way price action doesnt end well...

But it should produce some nice trading opportunities in the months to come... for those with intestinal fortitude anyway.

Anonymous said...

@Ben:

I'm not sure how your handle is any less anonymous than "anonymous." Unless you are willing to give us your place of business and full name, then you are also anonymous.

Also, it was supposed to be a light-hearted poke at CV, but since you are so stand-offish, you decided to get all bent out of shape and say I'm a bitch. Keep it classy.

(The world doesn't revolve around you)

McFearless said...

Karen,

it'd be nice if people would just post under a handle and stop with the bullshit, that's the point, and the attempt to cause trouble between the blogs is pathetic, as long as this continues every few weeks we have to deal with the big fight that ensues between the two blogs, it's stupid and I just don't get why it continues.

but hey, I'm just a child.

Anonymous said...

Does this count?

karen said...

haha, ben.. at least we haven't lost our sense of humor.. laughing.

McFearless said...

anon,

read this slowly, and then maybe read it again so it sinks in:

my screen name is not the same as being anonymous because unlike a random anon handle, people can go back and read old threads with the comments under my name

got it?

McFearless said...

and this isn't about being stand-offish, it's called being proactive, I'm trying to stop the next blog war before it begins, if you feel the need to keep that going, well, I guess I can't stop you.

karen said...

I <3 Adam!

And Anon @ 4:16.. you are effing hilarious.. not a one of us thinks the world revolves around us.. least of all Ben.. we post our opinions.. and our motto is, "We are often wrong."

I-Man said...

Since I missed the last blog fight on vacation, hold off a bit while I go make a sandwich...

:)

karen said...

Ben @ 4:19, pls, to attempt logic and reason with that commenter is a waste of finger taps.. just laugh.. i have the biggest smile on my face.

I-Man said...

Gotta be a trade here, somewhere...


http://www.aolnews.com/weird-news/article/bearded-lady-vivian-wheeler-finds-her-son-after-33-years/19631453

"Bearded Lady Reunites With Long-Lost Son"

Leftback said...

Cold Steel is intended as SATIRE. In no way is COLD STEEL advocating the bending over of bears or any form of violation of Mr Shorty.

His comments toward the bears are a PASTICHE of the kind of nonsense purveyed by HARRY WANGER and other PERMA-TOOLS.

This is a form of humor known as IRONY sometimes purveyed by Brits who are a bit bored by simply stating the obvious, like, say, the fuckers are ramping it again, those bastards, eff em all.

So instead you get a kind of play-acting pretend razzing of the Bears which is meant to be transparently shallow and therefore basically just a piss-take.

I-Man said...

Damn!

False breakout on the blog fight...

karen said...

what a dear story!

McFearless said...

I,

I was on vaca for the last one as well, I only caught the remnants when I got back home, but that got started two weeks before all that happened because of the same nonsense.

Point is, everyone here AND at the other blog with a handle is at least brave enough to put themselves out there, others hide behind an anon tag and try to stir up trouble.

karen said...

I meant I's story, not LB's obviously.. can i have a martini now?!

McFearless said...

leftback,

don't go getting all english on me now, you brits have a grasp of the language that people like me can't always recognize right away

karen said...

Can I change my ID to Babe? It's my new nickname and I rather like it.

Andy T said...

Ben: Using the count on the very first slide, the a=c would take you to 1174-ish funny enough. There are no hard rules on the a&c relationship. A 61.8%, or 100% or 161.8% relationship should be expected I supposed, but it doesn't have to.

I-Man said...

I love how the pullbacks happen AH... just awesome!

(YM down about 50 pts from 4 min before the NY close.)

Andy T said...

Pretty robust move today....feeling a little cold steel today....and I'm loving it.

Andy T said...

Karen,

That was me doing the backup dancing to Beiber.

I'm ashamed....

Shaking head.

Andy T said...

As of Week2, I'm glad I passed on Chris Johnson with the #1 pick.

Nic said...

Simple fibonacci levels (my favourite)1140 - 61.8 retracement of 1219.80/1010.90 down move.
I am hoping for a replay of the week post quad opex where we had a massive spike Monday and then fell back.
Bucky and the currencies are all behaving.
We shall see.

I-Man said...

Todays move was strong in how I looked at it today... YM never even made it back to the 61.8 of the move on the retrace, and when it tried to, it just bounced right off the last swing high at 10628 and ran.

Was cursing the lack of pullback all day... you'll miss some of these days being conservative.

Sat still almost all day. In Wait.

Nic said...

Are you guys reading about the foreclosure fraud mess at marketticker and nakedcapitalism? This mess has some potential.
What a goat rope ...

AmenRa said...

Nic

I've noticed that post opex have been weak weeks recently. Thanks god for football. Makes it easier to drown out CNBS.

McFearless said...

AT,

thanks man, this neely book is intense, I hate to say it since I've been rolling with it for so long but it makes EWP look sort of grade schoolish, I've yet to decide if that's good or bad, but the analysis just seems "deeper" if that's the right word.

karen said...

But Nic.. I would have preferred a nice reversal today.. i'll still accept it tomorrow, of course.

Andy, I wonder if the father expected such airplay? LOL

Leftback said...

Andy T,

Chelsea are never going to lose again. The EPL is a massive yawn.
Liverpool are the new Blackburn. Just shoot me.

Leftback said...

Nic.

Let's keep an eye on the AUDJPY and EURUSD. Once they both turn, then this little run-up is ready for at least a modest reversal. I have my eye on Wednesday, just because I hate FED days.

But if we zoom to SPX 1150 in the morning I might fade that.

Nic said...

Remember Mr Topstep video the day this rally started of 1040? He said the whole pit was the wrong side ... this whole rally feels like trapped shorts and a massive squeeze, hence the lack of pullbacks.

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