Morning Audibles - 9.21.10

Here we go with a new thread, if it becomes "convoluted", I'm sure someone will be along to fix it...


What's "convoluted" to me is that we're on DAY 13 of THE TELETHON...



C'Mon Everybody! Let's Raise Money for Barry's Kids!


- Let's raise the stock market
- Let's raise taxes
- Let's raise hope (now that the "Summer of Hope" was a bust)
- Please Dog - Let's raise our vote count


The Only Part That Mattered In Obama's Telethon


From KD


"Let me direct you to the only question that had value from an investment perspective:



SANTELLI: Mr. President. If I were to ask an investor would he invest in a company that for every dollar it spent it had to borrow 42 cents, I think that investor would think long and hard. Now if you look at the amount of money the government takes in and the amount of spending, those are pretty much the numbers for our government right now.


Does it bother you that 42 percent of our spending is borrowed even understanding that we have to deficit spend under tough times. How long can the U.S. continue to spend in that fashion without potentially hurting our long time financial health.


OBAMA: Well, it bothers me a lot. It bothered me when I was running for office and it bothered me when I arrived and I had a $1.3 trillion deficit wrapped in a bow and waiting for me in the Oval Office.


So, the answer to Rick's question is we've got to do something about it. And we have to do something about it fairly rapidly. The first thing you do is not dig it deeper. That's why this tax debate is important. We can't give $700 billion away to some of America's wealthiest people. We've got to make sure we're responsible for our budget, that's point #1....


The one thing I have to say to the public is that about 60 percent of our budget is entitlements, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. And a lot of the discretion I have is somewhat limited on these programs.


Now part of the reason health-care reform was so important is because the biggest driver of our long term budget deficits is Medicare. If our economy is growing at 2 or 3 or 4 percent, but health care costs are going up 6, or 7 or 8 percent, than the budget will blow up no matter how many cuts I make in other programs..."





Worst Over in Global Poll Pointing to Reduced Market Returns

For you applied logic afficianados, do some math on this algebraic equation...


(a)"Three out of five global investors say the world economy has weathered the financial crisis and has stabilized two years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

(b)Few believe the economy is recovering, with only (c)one in six of those surveyed describing it as expanding, according to a global quarterly poll of 1,408 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. (d) Forty-one percent aren’t convinced the financial situation is stable and say further turbulence is likely."

A+B+C+D = drumroll please - cue Jeopardy music...

“When taken as a whole, the world has stabilized,” says Uzi Zimmerman, a respondent to the Bloomberg Global Poll..."

---

OK... It's probably my CONVOLUTED logic here that doesn't allow me to understand how and why:

- the world has stabilized
- Equity markets have risen 9% in September with no correction, (and 14% in the quarter - which often happens in functioning bull markets)...
- Bloomberg blames the "crisis" on "Lehman"
- Obama blames the crisis on "Bush"
- The solution for all these problems is MORE (growth, taxes, prices, convolution, whatever)

I'm clearly suffering from some form of logic dystrophy so I'm going to need help...













327 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 327   Newer›   Newest»
call me ahab said...

re FF-

kind of funny that my waiver pick-up of Mike Williams (TB- WR) got me more points than all my starters did(except Schaub)- and that includes Randy Moss, Vernon Davis, Ryan Mathews, Cedric Benson, Dwayne Bowe- in fact my kicker got me more points then they did- (although- Mathews got injured [is that an excuse?])

there is another WR (that I'll keep to myself) that I may pick up-

two words- dark horse (Ariane Foster anyone?)

CV said...

MOMO Mondays explained... (or - in other terms, how Jamie Dimon & Lloyd Blankfein "steal" your 401k contributions each and every month while you're not looking)... FOR FUN, you know... FUN!

Putting your money to work just 2 days a month

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/putting_your_money_to_work_just_zgDO2hLKeSwBC5uGRSGobP#ixzz10ASIO2wJ

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/putting_your_money_to_work_just_zgDO2hLKeSwBC5uGRSGobP

CV said...

@ahab

Demarius Thomas isn't a "dark horse"...

call me ahab said...

Jerry's kids(Jerry Lewis- what an ego-maniac)- where's that cure already-'

as Chris Rock said- start lying to me Jerry-


and this is for b22-

Don't Buy the "Breakout", Sell It, Prechter Says

Jennifer said...

When did the banner quote change at Jesse's?

call me ahab said...

not Demarius- someone else in mind

although what I really need is a solid running back- especially w/ Mathews having an ankle sprain

Jennifer-

you just ruined my morning

CV said...

@jennifer

I guess gold & silver are behaving nice in Jesses world, so he decided to get his political rant on...

I was actually going to do a banner change today...

Until the market corrects, I was going to call this blog...

SKI-DADDY ANONYMOUS...

call me ahab said...

. . .and I mean really- what does that stupid fucking quote even mean-

I'll tell you what it means- Ritholtz is full of shit-

independent?

cough . . .cough . . .bullshit

CV said...

Because "anonymous SKI-DADDYS" seem to like to hang out and tell us how wrong we are...

... at least they care

karen said...

good morning!! (probably not!)

Nic.. I know what your chart was on the other page.. LOL.. so i shouldn't be short $spx right now : ) cuz that upside down chart was bearish.. which means bullish.. i know that, but it defies logic! and fundamentals but we know those don't count. can't we even have a little correction ??

Jennifer.. funny you noticed that banner change! but i can't remember the old one..

CV said...

@ahab

I tried to make a comment on BR's site last night about his stupid ass "Can we elect a 3rd party candidate" thread...

But I guess I'm banned because my SUBMITS never go thru...

I got a screen capture of the post...

Basically, I put the question back to Barry Genius to have him NOMINATE and example of what he was talking about in the history of past republics...

That's why I knew the comment wouldn't show up...

Why? because I knew Mr. genius couldn't answer the question...

And therefore the thread, as always, was just a bunch of useless cocktail party debating society that he and other liberals like to involve themselves doing while solving the world's problems...

call me ahab said...

Jesse changes up that banner- it's not always the same-

obviously- only the wisest of quote's make that banner

CV said...

@ahab

& dude...

I "offered" you a couple of good receivers for Ryan Matthews the other week and you turned me down...

Now he's out this week with an ankle injury and your team has to play mine...

Tough luck son! :-)

Anonymous said...

Another early start I see guys, good luck today. And CV, I was smiling broadly when I posted my earlier ribbing. While it bounced around in a most entertaining manner, your post did actually make sense, I admit. Sorry if I came across as rude, no meanness was intended.

Anyway people, please make bucketloads of $$$ today.
Bertie

CV said...

@Bertie

No problem... I imagined you writing it with a glass of red wine in your hand...

So... substitute BEER, and I do the same thing all the time...

Anyway - I like a good fight... And it at least gave me an idea for a post this morning (which I was "blanking" on previously)...

Anonymous said...

Haha CV!! Yes I was well "in my cups" as the Chinese say.
lol
Bertie

karen said...

futures pointing to a flat open? not sure i have the most up to date info..

karen said...

Nic.. so twitter is out today? i didn't understand at first but now I get it.. Not surprised.. putting my tinfoil hat on.. it was such a great means of communicating.

call me ahab said...

. . and don't get me wrong- I like the corporatocracy observation (duh! not an incredible insight)-

but he's always selling his "independent" moniker-

I guess if you say it long enough people start believing it (at the least the cheerleader's over there)

I wonder why someone like Venndata or Dedude doesn't get dressed down for their non-stop partisan blather- (at least Rootless Cosmopolitan has taken up the cause to point out Venndata's non-stop mantra)

and it's funny that Thor commented after I posted regarding this very quote that "it took 60 posts before the 'usual' finger pointing that BR is a closet liberal"-

and my observation back to him was- if it takes 60 posts before the "usual"- maybe it wasn't the usual

karen said...

Just followed up on the links in the post.. this whole leh thing reminds me of that movie 'the tail that wags the dog'.. public spin..

karen said...

okay.. just visted twstb site.. so many C ads!!

call me ahab said...

CV-

yeah- Ryan Mathew's been a bit of a bust- as has Bowe-

"the best laid schemes of mice and men . . ."

McFearless said...

ahab,

take a look at my squad, my RB's, make me an offer I can't refuse.....

this part of obama's response:

"And we have to do something about it fairly rapidly. The first thing you do is not dig it deeper."

hmmm, not to dig a deeper hole....interesting.

CV said...

I think Ryan Matthews will do ok...

He'd have better numbers if he didn't have FUMBLE-itis

call me ahab said...

. . .and I don't know- if you take all these 7 big spending initiative proffered up by BR (dude's an unapologetic Keynesian disciple)-

where does that put you on the political spectrum?

CV said...

So I click on over to YAHOO (to take a look at the FF teams)...

and I run across this...

Fed to ponder whether bolder action needed

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100921/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_interest_rates


---

BOLDER ACTION?

Wait a minute!... I thought all out problems were solved...

Mr. Teleprompter spent hours of TV time telling us how much he's solved...

The stock market is green every day... Going to 1300 by year end...

Bond issues in Europe are solved...

Growth in China is robust...

Profits are up...

Home starts are up...

WHY THE HELL WOULD WE NEED BOLDER ACTION?

call me ahab said...

. . .ad don't the infamous line that he leaned libertarian-

now that's a joke!

b22- I'll take a look- I think Mike Williams was a good pick up on my part (considering rookies are high risk)

McFearless said...

A little random though sort of on topic, one of the things that attracted me to wave analysis was that it was rooted in the fibo sequence, and within the sequence of course we find the golden ratio who's geometric shape is the spiral, something that all things with growth or decay pattern exhibit, including our own bodies (phi is all over your body)

In reading neely's book I'm quite taken with some of the patterns he identifies that are not included in the orthodox EWP book, today in particular I'll highlight the bow-tie shape, which you can see Andy illustrate in his update here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/37729379/S-P-Update-19-Sep-10

I'm certain all of you have seen a picture of a spiral galaxy, they tend to be pretty popular in the astronomy books. Well here is an example of the shape in Andy's update:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18082430/

So, question is, can any of you think of any other forms that occur naturally that take this bow-tie shape?

karen said...

odd tidbit.. my older son got on a delta flight from jfk to sna (john wayne/orange county) this morning.. he texted that the plane was empty.

the younger one is STILL in the hospital.. apparently they did another CAT scan in the night.. i'm awaiting some word..

Jennifer said...

Mish sure let loose on Munger after yesterday's debacle.

call me ahab said...

last post should read- "and don't forget the infamous line . . ."

karen said...

wow on that red star nebula! reminded me of an asscher cut diamond.. and yes, "if symmetry is a sign of splendor, then the newly discovered Red Square nebula is one of the most beautiful objects in the universe."

karen said...

oh great, Jenn.. I gotta go read that since I was so aghast..

McFearless said...

Karen ,

apologize that I missed, what happened to your son that he's in the hospital?

call me ahab said...

b22-

that picture's wild- I wonder how the edges are constrained as they are

karen said...

ps.. the other KD has an ETF post:

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/

McFearless said...

those Munger comments were pretty amazing weren't they. 1 in 8 families in food stamps and he's out adivising people to suck it up or else the "culture will change"

wow

CV said...

@mcf

Not natural... but...

hourglass, star of david...

Natural... Butterflies

McFearless said...

Karen, ahab,

that picture is awesome isn't it?

I was looking some stuff up on-line last night on how to properly identify Jupiter and I came across it, then I remembered right away the bow-tie shape in Andy's updates and in the MEW book.

karen said...

same son that was in the hospital last January.. this time it is ruptured appendix.. or at least it perforated as they were removing it.. son insists they "botched" the surgery but it was apparently in an awkward position.. he is at school in NY at at the local hospital.. his older brother has been taking the train to see him everyday, but is now on his way here for a job interview..

CV said...

Is Munger an Obama supporter like Buffett?

McFearless said...

oh ok, glad to hear (sounds like) he's doing alright.

McFearless said...

I don't know if he's an obama supporter but Munger is clearly a supporter of....Munger.

karen said...

CV.. your mind amazes me sometimes!! Butterflies! okay.. some clam shells when opened and flat, look like that.. will try to find a picture.

McFearless said...

how about AT's ff team, 212 pts and he's 0-2....I'd be pissed.

I-Man said...

Just to help set today's medi...

I think we worry too much about this and that, the levitape efforts of the "working group", or the "creature"...

Thought this put it inna perspective:


"And let the net that they hid ensnare them; let them fall in it- to their ruin."

Psalm 34:8

McFearless said...

one thing about that shape is that it is "complex" so putting triangles together would also work...

McFearless said...

nice post I-man

Algo's got nothing on Psalms

karen said...

ben.. well, he is still alive but not getting better! it has been a week.. thus the new cat scan : (

call me ahab said...

I think CV's quote yesterday on Munger said it best

McFearless said...

re: FF,

I'm worried Cutler will get hurt this coming week, Clay Matthews might just crush him.

McFearless said...

well, good luck karen, hope he moves back to better quickly

Jennifer said...

Karen -- do you feel like he is in a good place? Is he well enough to move to another hospital if you wanted to? Keep us posted on the CAT scan -- good luck to him.

CV said...

@ben

How about a TESSERACT? (which is a geometric representation of the 4th dimension)...

As featured in this movie...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cube_2:_Hypercube

CV said...

tesseract

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:rg8cN7q13FrV1M:http://www.daviddarling.info/images/tesseract.jpg&t=1

CV said...

http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/T/tesseract.html

McFearless said...

@Jennifer,

one of my aunts hired me about a year ago to manage her accounts, she had an advisor just like that guy you describe, told her to never ever sell anything. As you can imagine it's been a bit of a struggle to work with her because she was so used to this, I remember when I brought up using some fixed income she nearly lost it, she's slowly (very slowly) coming around though to the realization that when you are speculating you can't just set it and forget it.

CV said...

@ben

The "socio-economic" implication of the appearance of a TESSERACT (or HYPERCUBE), would be "space-time" folding in on itself...

Basically... collapsing...

McFearless said...

tesseract, good eye CV!

call me ahab said...

b22-

I think these are all natural bow ties

http://cook.melandkarl.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/img-1371-thumb.jpg

CV said...

@ahab

I expected someone like you to come up with PEE WEE HERMAN... lol

McFearless said...

hahahah thanks ahab

McFearless said...

yeah, i was sort of waiting for someone to post a pic of Jim Rogers...

karen said...

Just getting texts from the sickie, now.. his mood is good.. the cat scan found a minor thing (don't want to subject you to those details!) So apparently he is on the mend, albeit slowly.. I feel better that he is not seeming so dejected.. I got exclamation points.. always a good sign with him.. thanks for your concerns!

McFearless said...

As long as people like this are searching for answers, we will never have the satisfaction of getting them:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ExPhysicist-Leads-Inquiry-nytimes-3740091049.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

Markets ARE NOT physics.

Remember the example I gave, hold up a nautilus shell to the mathematical formula for it, the shell is not exactly like the formula, one is mathematical theory, one is reality, apparently these people are still trying to decide which is which, markets, aren't any different, no matter how much these people try to make them "fit"

call me ahab said...

gotta roll out-

Karen- best wishes to your family

CV- or this guy-

http://dealbreaker.com/_old/images/thumbs/Picture%20114.png

CV said...

@karen

Just be glad it's all happening NOW... Instead of AFTER we get FREE HEALTH CARE...

Trust me on this...

CV said...

@ahab

Mike Williams isn't going to help you out this week ...

vs, Pittsburgh... Steelers will be in Josh Freeman's face all day...

Last week the Panthers (who only have 1 sack on the year w/o Julius Peppers) - gave Freeman ALL DAY long to locate targets...

McFearless said...

"He had a sense that actions in markets provoke reactions and they are done for reasons, benign or not benign,” said Frank Hatheway, chief economist at Nasdaq, one of the exchanges that provided data for the inquiry."

here is the heart of his beliefs, which explain physics and sound good to us because they explain evolution, but it can't explain why trends end....and clearly they do, if this were true they would not.

Leftback said...

JPY strength. Something bearish this way comes...

So if we rally hard this morning I would be a seller at 2pm. Profit taking seems due and if there is no more QE (likely in my view), there will be selling. A retrace this week to support at the delightful KT area would hardly surprise the present company.

Don't short Ts today. If they announce QE, Ts get bought. If they don't equity sell-off, flight to quality, Ts get bought. Wait for that rally to run its course and then sell 'em short.

Lord Blankfiend said...

Don't trade, just send your money to me at West Street.
I have to eat too, you know.

McFearless said...

I rather like this new debate that seems to be emerging about whether or not we are truly delevering or if there is just a lot of defaulting.

at least it's not the inflation/deflation debate right?

wunsacon said...

>> call me ahab said...
>> . . .ad don't the infamous line that he leaned libertarian

I don't recall Ritholtz saying he "leaned" libertarian. I recall him saying he had "sympathies" for their positions. That's not the same.

I describe my relationship with libertarianism the same way..."sympathetic".

CV said...

"whether or not we are truly delevering or if there is just a lot of defaulting..."

---

It's the latter...

Frankly - I'd go as far as to say that we are RE-LEVERING...

Otherwise, how do you describe a $5 billion per day POMO operation that is put to work 30x to juice the S&P 9% in one month...

DE-LEVERAGING TO FOLLOW (of course)...

On the default side... MEH - simple... Just default strategically, and enough, to make your monthly nut...

Not like it's widespread mass default or anything... That's why is only being "whispered" about and is not a main topic...

karen said...

Ben.. exactly.. : )
however, won't you even concede a little currency debasement ??

LB, embarrassed to admit I hadn't looked at yen this AM..

CV said...

@wunsa

Oh trust me... he's either said (or implied vigorously) what ahab just stated there...

I'm too lazy to look it up... But frankly, those are some of the FIRST notions I'd gather when I started following TBP a long while ago...

karen said...

ha! as far as i am concerned, ZIRP is currency debasement..

I really liked those investment advisor anecdotes from Bennifer this morning.. so fascianting.. i've had similar thots regarding homeownership and real estate.

karen said...

i think twitter is fixed now.. thank goodness.. i needed my fix!

karen said...

oh get this.. i have to leave for airport at exactly 2:15 ET : )
someone may be waiting at the airport for a few minutes..

karen said...

from Mish: The one thing we desperately need is a culture change. Instead, we made too big to fail, too bigger to fail. We preserved a culture that benefits billionaires like Munger and greedy CEO's that helped cause this mess. That culture benefits no one else.

72bat said...

ben -
socionomic datapoint: the new fox series "lonestar"? father-son duo of grifters/con-men in which the son wants out of "the life", to do something "real"

McFearless said...

"however, won't you even concede a little currency debasement"

I'll admit an attempt to it sure, how could I deny that. The question though is whether or not it's actualy really happening, especially given the central banks "unlimited resources"

I have visions of the dollar and yen signs dancing in front of me right now telling me they are still here.

CV said...

@karen

Here's Munger, Obama, & all practicing their TRICKLE down approach...

...as it applies to bailouts & TBTF...

http://filipspagnoli.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/trickle-down.jpg

AmenRa said...

Karen

LMAO. FOMC release time. Well you could listen to it on sat radio.

Leftback said...

"LB, embarrassed to admit I hadn't looked at yen this AM.."

No need to be embarrassed, K. Unless you are trading naked again.

McFearless said...

72,

good eye man, I hadn't seen that, interesting!

it would seem that mood of wanting something "real" is def. building.

Wonder if Dr. Bruce has any comments about that given his line of work...would be curious to hear if different procedures have become more popular over the years....did spiedy mark a top for the ridiculous plastic surgery?

CV said...

@72bat

That's funny... I was watching football on Sunday and a promo came out for that show...

I thot right then and there I'd need to do a thread on that...

Jennifer said...

McF -- The most popular bowties in our household are of the pasta variety -- the little carb lovers love 'em, especially with butter and parmesan cheese. Decidedly NOT naturally occurring. The other issue goes to the heart of portfolio management. Older folks -- not necessarily an age thing but more a function of time spent with money in the market -- are inherently transaction adverse since transactions incur fees and taxes. My father has a borderline insane hatred of taxes. I would go out on a limb here and say that Cramer does have it right (don't shoot me!!!) when he says that taxes are just the cost of doing business and if you have a gain you want to keep you need to cash it in and pay the tax. The other issue, and they are linked, is that there really is no diversification any more, which also goes against everything the older mindset has been taught. Yes, diversification does avoid the individual company blow ups -- if you want coal exposure spread it around so when Massey kills a ton of miners you're not all in Massey. But most people don't get the dollar/currency/leverage connection, and frankly I think people just don't want to think that hard. My parents gave me the portfolio of a family charitable trust to manage. Nice, huh? 75% of the portfolio was in one stock -- a large regional bank. But, god forbid I actually SELL anything...because then we'd have to ...pay taxes!!! So, how am I supposed to buy something new if I can't sell out of something old? (I sold anyway, but of course, not at the absolute best possible price, so that wasn't great either.) Needless to say, portfolio performance has been less than spectacular. I can't wait to seem them on Wednesday when they come for my oldest's birthday.

karen said...

NYTimesDealBook
Letter from London: Potash and Lehman http://nyti.ms/9uX5Jr
2 minutes ago via The New York Times

smsearsBarrons
wanna know the mood on trading desks around big stock surge: HEDGE HEDGE AND HEDGE.

Leftback said...

Stay long the divvies and the Junk, and HEDGE the big surges in the RUT might well be the way to play. When the big dips come along, short TLT into resistance. That H&S on TLT is getting to be almost as beautiful as Karen.

Those are the thoughts here at Schadenfreude Asset Management, for the time being.

CV said...

More natural images...

http://images.teamsugar.com/files/upl1/10/104166/37_2008/catwhiskers.jpg

http://www.quantumbalancing.com/pwmtesseract.htm

http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcToX0W1JUgd3hBZKVIoEZEsvebbRQGOptjPOdrL1aaqiWOAURk&t=1&usg=__Tc9lavKtQRuuqLLCb-8Pj5e9SXs=

http://www.inewscatcher.com/timages/1ce937b773a6a72c058be7f17a765a10.jpg

karen said...

breathtaking on the maelstrom II !!

and why didn't i think of cat whiskers ??

CV said...

Cat whiskers... I kno right?

karen said...

shoot.. you made me lose track of how many times i'v stirred my baking granola!!

karen said...

bespokeinvest

Stocks that may benefit from the Twitter Hack. http://soc.li/GdnP0mg $$ http://soc.li/yJs7jlO
2 minutes ago via SeekingAlpha

karen said...

better link! sorry, should have checked them first.

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/21/twitter-hack-and-internet-security.html

Leftback said...

Crude is talking... it is saying.... OVERBOUGHT.

McFearless said...

Jennifer,

I know someone up the street from my office, parent of a young client of mine, they owned $2 million of colonial bankshares, would have had a huge taxable gain if they had sold so they refused to, instead they rode it down for a complete loss! I never have gotten this at all, and I do agree with Cramer also, the whole goal is to make money, paying taxes is part of the deal.

As for diversification, good observations you have there, that was an idea born out of the great bull market in social mood, the idea itself is a myth. This is one of the great struggles for me with clients the last few years, I'm always getting pushback due to our heavy weight toward fixed income "why aren't we more diversified"

which I typically respond with:

"what do you mean"

mainly because I know they can't answer that follow up question.

I-Man said...

could be a nice pre fed rip brewin here...

McFearless said...

"wanna know the mood on trading desks around big stock surge: HEDGE HEDGE AND HEDGE"

look at put option premiums, they still aren't what I'd call cheap, even now. i think traders are know how serious the risk of another flash type event occuring soon is, I'm guessing of course, but I don't think this is all "we have huge profits because we all bought the higher low and are sitting on $5k per contract now and need to hedge that"

it would just seem there is still underlying fear that isn't reflected in the VIX but it is reflected in options premiums.

karen said...

another munger rant: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/berkshire-hathaway-john-munger-john-munger/9/21/2010/id/30188

karen said...

oops.. nevermind.. that was Mish's rant.. and a good one!

Jennifer said...

KD has a nice Munger rant up now too.

karen said...

LOL!! yeah, right !!

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/4peeJp/newsfeed.time.com/2010/09/21/study-men-dont-notice-if-women-wear-high-heels//r:t

karen said...

i am such an idiot.. always mixing up KD and Mish.. part of the problem is KD to me is Kid Dynamite.

CV said...

Hedge Funds On The Defensive As Hugh Hendry Sees 80% Reduction In Size Of Industry

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hedge-funds-defensive-hugh-hendry-sees-80-reduction-size-industry

CV said...

Hugh Hendry: 'It was too easy to make money speculating'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/hardtalk/9017299.stm

karen said...

<3 him, CV, thanks!

CV said...

I'm trying to find the longer interview...

It should be somewhere on BBC

karen said...

the link in the ZH comments didn't work for me..

I-Man said...

Alright, gonna take advantage of the Snore Tape and get some errands run...

See yall after the Federales jabber.

karen said...

Fed Watch Tool:

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/fed-funds.html

karen said...

this is a good write up: from Nic Lenoir of ICAP

Yesterday was certainly a perplexing day. Stocks screamed higher breaking out the key resistances and making it look like we are in for a bull run into year-end. Meanwhile bonds were bid, not acknowledging equities one bit, and gold and copper were mixed at best while the dollar index which was initially weak finished close to unchanged. Either it was a stat-arb holiday I was not made aware of or people are trully confused here.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/front-running-big-ben

CV said...

Here are some of the "tools" that BB still has that he can possibly put to use...

http://www.chrissheridan.com/kubrick/images/2001/killrival.jpg

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

I gathered bonds were bought because the Fed once again implied they may be a buyer.

..Like you, that confused me last night, but I think that is the reason they didn't sell off.

karen said...

FCX is having a bad hair day after that nice MS upgrade to buy..

karen said...

what is the story on the little birdie, Bruce?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Our house is about 50% glass, and birds fly into it, unfortunately, every day. When they are really stunned, my wife or I pick them up and warm them by holding them, especially in the winter, until they are ready to fly again.

karen said...

Just spoke with son's doctor! got some questions answered.. things are looking better now : )

karen said...

I have that problem, too.. most of the time, they survive.. unless a hawk was chasing them, of course. Warming them is such a nice thot!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Sorry, CV, just got in (and Karen)..Tuesday am is a big surgery day...

Many cosmetic surgeons were forced back into things like general surgery due to the recession. I suppose the most common procedure is still liposuction, but here for me anyway, it would be eyelids.

CV said...

I'm just fooling around with some charts that include the AFTER HOURS prints on SPY...

Here's something I came up with...

NEW CHART IN THREAD

Back at 1040, most charts were showing "bullish divergence"... The quick move back to 1100 was clearly an overcompensation, and occurred NIFTILY as MOMO's put the Sept 401k $$ to work...

The market has continued to rise, but it also appears that it is somewhat of a consolidation pattern...

Not really consolidating PRICE WISE, but rather MOMENTUM WISE... There have clearly been numerous "bearish divergences" over the past week, but a lot of that has (correctly or incorrectly) been attributed to things like:

- POMO activity
- OPEX week
- End of quarter window dressing

We are approaching a 20-21 day window where that OVERSOLD 1040 is in the rearview mirror...

It "could mean" that the SMOOTHING OUT effect might actually take the market higher, but it could also mean that PRIOR to that, we see some kind of "correction" that balances these momentum waves out a little further...

Any better ideas?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Gotta run some errands before I start in the mine this afternoon....back after 1...

BinT

Jennifer said...

Good news Karen! Off to mom duties...feel free to crash without me.

karen said...

no wonder my drv is so low:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10865311/1/14-reits-increasing-dividends-annually.html

karen said...

interesting, CV.. thanks for pointing that out and posting it!

Leftback said...

http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/4peeJp/newsfeed.time.com/2010/09/21/study-men-dont-notice-if-women-wear-high-heels//r:t

LB thinks he would notice Karen's heels and perfectly shaped calves.

McFearless said...

"Any better ideas?"

frou frou drinks

Leftback said...

RETEST OF 666...

on the RUT....

Leftback said...

This guy is really one of the best. I like his call on EURUSD here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/market-breaks-out-ahead-fomc

CV said...

Here's what it looked like in the PREMARKET (compressed to 2 min momentum charts)...


new chart in thread

A possible theory might be to wait for the FOMC statement...

You may see a momentum surge (which would essentially take us to the HIGH OF THE DAY (if you excluded PREMARKET activity (yellow shaded areas)... and get pretty close to yesterdays highs...

Traders may chase that as a breakout, but it may end up STALLING at the leading diagonal from the after hours prints you see in the chart...

I could see a selloff commencing from that point (somewhere around 114.30-ish SPY)...

A standard .009 fibo retrace would pretty much do you for the classic TOPSTEP "10 handle" rule and take us back down to the 1131 level (SPX)... Which would be considered a backtest...

Anyway... Just a theory... (the market seems to "love" these headfake moves around FOMC statements)...

a move like this would accomplish a lot of things...

karen said...

On Tuesday 21st September 2010, @mrtopstep said:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad warned the Obama administration today that if Iran's nuclear facilities are attacked, the U.S. will face a war that "would know no boundaries." ABC News

CV said...

& maybe after that we could have...

THE MOTHER OF ALL WARS THAT WOULD KNOW NO BOUNDARIES...

The after that... Well - I'll start working on more superlatives...

McFearless said...

from a good trader with a funny handle over at Dan's:

FOOD FOR THOUGHT-

On July 23, AMZN posted what many consider their most disappointing quarter in years. The stock traded down to $100 after the release. Less than 2 months later, AMZN has rallied over 50% to an all time high on no news. Just think about that for a minute. A company with a $68B market cap rallying 50% in 2 months on no news. These are truly historic times we are in.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/09/e-minis_21.html#comment-79737036

McFearless said...

I, see mr. Members Only jacket is back out there making threats again.

if there is a spike prior to the Fed I may add a little bit to the shorts I put on yesterday.

CV said...

@McF

FF question (while I have your attention and before you get to the frou frous)...

You have as backs:

- Gore
- Forte
- Mendenhall
- Bradshaw
- Taylor

Who would you be willing to part with?

karen said...

my sds just want positive but i'm not sure i'm feeling so reckless today.. anecdotes like that one above about AMZN unnerve me.. and aapl at near 285 today..

McFearless said...

CV,

for the right deal, any of them, like I told ahab, make me an offer I can't refuse.

Last year I didn't transact much in the league, but we weren't playing for money last year either.

McFearless said...

Karen,

I will close these shorts with a small gain today if they can, I'm still worried there might not be a real pullback until 1170 range, I still think there are shorts to squeeze.

McFearless said...

looking at my squad it's probably pretty clear I'd be interested in some talent at the WR spot....

McFearless said...

right now Forte might be my best WR

Leftback said...

mr. Members Only jacket is back out there making threats again.

"...because he thinks it turns on all the ladies..."

(Let's see who catches this reference....)

CV said...

AMZN

after having done a dark cross in the summer... AMZN is making a "golden cross" today...

It would appear to me that any leveraged money that exists is just going into these things that either didn't DARK CROSS, or did so barely and can be reversed...

That'll all change when the momentum shifts...

This is 1999

karen said...

yes.. this was stupidest study ever and a waste of time:

http://web.orange.co.uk/article/quirkies/High_heels_wasted_on_men

Men definitely notice.. whether they like or not is another story.. but they do notice. They notice because they like legs, period.

CV said...

@McF

I have abundant talent at WR...

I could use a stable running back, but I'm also the type who likes to sit around and wait to pick up handcuffs...

For example... REGGIE BUSH went down with a broken fibula yesterday...

Enter - DeShawn Wynn

Mike Tolbert in SD... etc.

So frankly... I'd be most interested in GORE, but to make it a fair trade, I'd probably have to offer somewhat of a lesser replacement value on that... (like Jamaal Charles)... Plus some standout wideouts... (of which I have many)...

McFearless said...

don't forget, he's also got that beard going on like the other global wizards.

CV said...

I ALWAYS notice high heels...

end of story

I-Man said...

10 tick scalper's paradise today...

McFearless said...

CV,

I'm sure you can dream something up.

that bush injury, could things get any worse for that guy right now

McFearless said...

yeah, I notice heels as well, and they don't mention it in the article but if heels make one's backside stick out...well then maybe the shoes only get a glance as a result and the eyes are uh...focused elsewhere

I-Man said...

He could have VD from Kardashian...

I-Man said...

Sorry, that was mean.

I'll be nice.

CV said...

@McF

How about this...

I trade you MEGATRON, STEVE SMITH, & JAMAAL CHARLES for FRANK GORE...

You'd have to drop 2 players... but dropping Jacoby Jones & Brandon Lloyd isn't going to hurt...

especially since Demariyus Thomas is now back for Denver (now Orton has 4 targets; Royal, Gaffney, Thomas, & Lloyd [not to mention TE] to go to...

Lloyd has no real value...

McFearless said...

I'll get back to you by tomorrow on that one, do you have Carolina Steve Smith or NYG Steve Smith?

McFearless said...

it was still sort of funny I.

CV said...

Carolina...

The REAL Steve Smith

Leftback said...

Tick tock tick tock... zzzzzzzz

Karen, we need shoe or underwear icons as soon as possible !!

I-Man said...

I was gonna say... if CV is offering up NYG Steve Smith, then he must have Hakeem Nicks...

:)

karen said...

LB, you are lucky your GF doesn't read this blog!! I have to leave in 45 but will definitely have a new icon by tomorrow as my humour is much improved now.

I-Man said...

Nice stable of RB's you got there McF...

Tough to pick, but I'd probably drop Bradshaw, regardless of the Jacobs situation.

(Or start 3 RBs every week...)

McFearless said...

ok, I will email you later tonight or tomorrow, interesting offer.

McFearless said...

I,

for better or worse I place a lot of value in FF RB's.

you don't think Bradshaw will have a good year?

I was pretty big on him coming into this season, have him in both leagues I'm in.

karen said...

have to take a quick shower.. somebody sext me if the market moves big, okay? here's an old icon to remind us of the good old days when we traded around my top. LOL

CV said...

@McF

I see your team as pretty solid (except for the WR's)... and, of course, too many backs...

You can platoon McNabb & Rivers (McNabb was a good pickup)... I'd have done the same in a heartbeat, but I dispersed with that need by drafting Aaron Rodgers (as long as he stays healthy)...

I'm not in love with Garcon & Colston (simply because Manning & Brees spread the ball around too much... I'd rather have Manning or Brees (lol)...

Welker is SOLID-icious!

You're PERFECT with the Forte/Taylor handcuff... (I didn't want to risk my season with a Mike Martz offense - but it seems to be working thus far)... I almost prefer Taylor to Forte...

I consider Bradshaw to be be more reliable than Mendenhall, but with patience, both ought to work out & I wouldn't be trading them...

Pittsburgh has some offensive line issues, but when Big Ben comes back, Mendenhall will produce better...

Bradshaw is NY's best back... and now you have Brandon Jacobs asking for a trade (so it would be nice if they're only left with AB)...

That's my 2 cents...

I-Man said...

I might be biased having had both of them before, but the NYG seem cursed at RB.

I'd rather have Mendenhall or Taylor (assuming its Chester)...

CV said...

@I-Man

I have Hakeem Nicks on BOTH of my other FF teams...

I don't have him in the Survivor Capital League...

Nicks is this years Miles Austin...

Nic said...

Back for FOMC.
Twitter was crazy this morning, so annoying.

CV said...

Yes... "Chester" Taylor

Nic said...

OK Mag cover: "Snooki: my battle with anorexia"

McFearless said...

since we all seem a bit bored right now, here is some more about DE politics, which have national interest of late:

http://www.whosay.com/BillMaher/content/2418?code=TNl3ts

I-Man said...

Ditto on that... I scooped up Hakeem Nicks late last year, just a year early...

I-Man said...

Nice try Snookie...

McFearless said...

Also, I saw Jamie Kennedy do stand up in Atlantic City last year, he wasn't very good.

McFearless said...

C,

you pretty much nailed how I look at my team right now, the one thing I hate about fantasy is picking a DST. I probably should have won my game this week, I made some poor starts, I didn't think Welker was going to score against the Jets, I got stuck on Revis Island.

I picked a lot of RB's on purpose, I knew I'd trade some, the WR position was very deep this year from what I could tell before the draft so I thought this would give me options down the road....or maybe as early as week 3 ;-)

CV said...

@I-Man

Nicks is nursing a mild ankle sprain right now...

But he DID play anyway vs. Indy and scored a TD...

Steve Smith (NYG) is more like Derrick Mason... a solid receiver, but Nicks is going to put up the "WOW" numbers...

karen said...

http://www.hedgeaccording.ly/2010/09/top-notch-on-fomc-day-top-step.html

saw that snookie cover in grocery yesterday and couldn't believe my eyes! i quickly looked away..

have never even seen that show.. apparently Situation iphone app is a top ten seller?? (saw that on twitter this AM)

gotta run, really..

I-Man said...

Gore was magnificent last night... A true stud. Had visions of Riggins.

I-Man said...

Time to step away and let the inmates run the asylum for a bit...

Leftback said...

LB's nightmare. A date with Snooki.

LB's dream. A walk on the beach with Karen...

karen said...

oh brother.. son's plan is est to arrive 30 min early!! looks like he'll have a bit of a wait for me.. unless i go early and trade from my phone.. LOL..

Leftback said...

Step away from the controls. Don't touch that dial....

CV said...

@McF

That was a mistake on your part...

Why?

Because Revis, you should know, only lines up against the #1 receiver...

Welker lines up mostly as a slot receiver... That's why he gets so much production (as he's usually covered by either a linebacker or safety)...

Also, New England often lines up in a 3 receiver set on one side (and then motion one receiver to the other side)...

MOSS is not that motion guy (Welker is)...

and why?

Because they do it when they detect a blitz package coming on the off side...

That way, they can slip the motion guy over top of the pressure (that's Welker), and single covered by a linebacker...

Welker is a must start almost every week...

McFearless said...

have we ever seen Jersey Shore?

Well, i can't speak for anyone else but yes, I got stuck watching one after another a few weekends ago during some marathon, it was awesome and a pathetic waste of time all balled up into one.

I like DJ Pauly D more than situation, but they are both hilarious, and now situation is on dancing with the stars.

him and that no talent ass clown Michael bolton:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0R88UqXRZ0

CV said...

@I-Man

Gore WAS a stud last night... I was really pulling for SF to win that game...

But I did have them (& the points) for $100, so I came away happy...

In Fantasy, he's always a risk tho because he's NEVER played a full season without missing a few games to injury...

I-Man said...

I thought about your call CV as the Saints snuck that FG in late...

Leftback said...

Nic

Were you short crude today? It is molten.

McFearless said...

oh yeah, I wasn't worried about Revis guarding Welker, that was a bad attempt at a joke, I thought Cromartie would stuff him though.

Welker said before the game that he thought Cromartie was the "fastest guy in the whole league", I almost read that like he was wimping out before the game started, like the ACL was "in his head", you played sports, you know how you can get yourself screwed up mentally before a game.

the Jets also looked awful in week 1, so i figured they'd be all over him, revis shutting down Moss and the rest of them looking to smash welker.

I overthought the whole thing, he's almost a must start every week Welker.

I-Man said...

I'm callin Arkansas over Bama this wknd, just sayin it now.

CV said...

Who the hell is Snookie?

McFearless said...

see what you miss when you are on the farm:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=snookie+image+&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=

CV said...

@I-Man

I'll take BAMA

McFearless said...

would love to see the razorbacks beat Bama

I'm a bit worried about PSU this weekend against Temple....we didn't look so hot with kent st. last weekend, they won't be able to get away with some of that against Temple, they are a lot better than they used to be.

I'm trying to get some tickets to the night game against Michigan on 10/30

CV said...

@McF

Never heard of her, OR Jersey Shore

CV said...

15 minutes to "the beard"

I-Man said...

Consider yourself lucky CV...

I-wife is addicted to that crap. She hearts the Situation.

McFearless said...

C,

listen to the I, you don't need to know and you aren't missing anything

I-Man said...

I wonder how much money it would take to contract out Charlie Murphy to man slap Bernanke?

We could pool our funds together...

CV said...

I suppose I'm equally pathetic by having football on my mind 24/7...

But at least you can BET it & STRATEGIZE with it...

I'm not sure what you can do with that other stuff...

McFearless said...

along those lines, it's pretty amazing the speaking fees people can get. My biz partner and I wanted to get a good coach to speak for clients a few years ago, so we looked at guys like Coach K, or Lou Holtz

these guys want a ton of money to speak, we never ended up doing that, i talked instead, just a little less exciting, hahahaha.

This year I'm trying to book Whitesnake for a holiday party.

I-Man said...

I had that Whitesnake tape back in the day... shit was hot for its time.

I bet CV used to teach David Coverdale dance lessons...

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