Morning Audibles 9.24.10

Once again, futures are green, (and gold & silver are at ALL TIME HIGHS) on the BOJ's latest effort to intervene & "fix" the appreciating yen... Mr. Market is basically telling them to "stick it where the RISING SUN don't shine"...


In other "FIXING" news...



Obama asks Wen for more action on yuan

EXCERPT: "So the president made clear that, through that and in his meeting, that he's going to protect U.S. economic interests and that we look for the Chinese to take actions. If the Chinese don't take actions, we have other means of protecting U.S. interests," Bader said."

Here was the response from Wen Jiabao...

Which prompted Obama to remind everyone that he was a Nobel Prize winning/POTUS who doubled as a martial arts master himself...


So stay tuned... Or, if you're not into blood, guts & violence, just tune in to the United States Congress who basically stands around and gets paid to do nothing after their month long vacation in August... After deciding not to pass a 2010 budget back in July, they have decided not to worry about the issue of the Bush Tax cuts either (until after the elections - which will basically get them to the Thanksgiving & Holiday break)...
No tax cut vote before election: Democrat
Excerpt: "The Senate will not vote on renewing Bush-era tax cuts before the November elections, a spokesman for the Majority leader said on Thursday, as Democrats face internal divisions and potential Republican obstacles..."

Obstacles obstacles... Seems all around the globe, everybody's KUNG FU fighting these days...





194 comments:

CV said...

Correction on above...

Silver isn't at an ALL TIME high (but it's a "non Hunt Bros" induced 30 year high)...

72bat said...

Trade Wars anyone?
Amid Tension, China Blocks Vital Exports to Japan
9/22/10 HONG KONG — Sharply raising the stakes in a dispute over Japan’s detention of a Chinese fishing trawler captain, the Chinese government has blocked exports to Japan of a crucial category of minerals used in products like hybrid cars, wind turbines and guided missiles. Chinese customs officials are halting shipments to Japan of so-called rare earth elements, preventing them from being loading aboard ships at Chinese ports, industry officials said on Thursday."
just heard on npr this morning, japan has released the chinese trawler captain

McFearless said...

awesome post

stay ninja team!

Leftback said...

Some you win, some you lose... got done by those overnight FX interventions, I think. Durables was hardly a banner number.

Will hold for the new home sales but stops are very tight now.

call me ahab said...

can't get enough Bruce Lee- and CV- the Sumo wrestler match looks legit (the kid must have been a natural)

from last nights thread- b22 posted this comment from some expert-

"The Fed will come in and make things improve."

yeah that kills me-

not that they won't try- it's just not a given-

and call me dense I still don't get how buying government debt improves anything

Leftback said...

ahab

The money has to flow somewhere... and it will... look at gold.
But it will also flow to HY bonds and equities.

McFearless said...

ahab,

tepper was a bit of a head spinner today, you know, for a dummy like me, I sit there and wonder

well if its "that easy" why the heck does the market EVER go down at all?

72bat said...

team macro-man
"If you have a beard and Central banking is your business, you need to know when to take the punchbowl away from the party. To extend the same analogy, if you are in the speculating business it is very important to know when the block party is about to be shut down by the cops or your local knife-wielding teenage thugs. TMM is of the view that, with respect to some very heavily owned trades that have been winners this year, that time is now. The trades in question range from the fairly obscure, Philippine equities below"

CV said...

@McF

Take a look at the latest AH chart I put up...

new chart in thread

It makes todays surge look a little different, doesn't it?...

just saying...

Leftback said...

Covering at the open might be a mistake...

Leftback said...

Effing market...

call me ahab said...

and here is the headline-

"Fed's Intervention Will Make 'Everything' Go Up: Tepper"

LB-

I understand that- the money sloshing around being invested in paper assets and commodities-

but isn't the Fed's mandate to have full employment and price stability?

I guess stability means prices up and full employment means 20% real unemployment rate

call me ahab said...

. . .so I guess what I am saying is that how does the Fed actions help the real economy?

McFearless said...

leftback,

in deflation the money multiplier goes into reverse, not every environment requires that "the money has to go somewhere"

when one realizes that there is in fact virtually no "money", there is only credit, this scenario not only becomes possible, it makes it likely.

this is what Bass refers to as

The Keynesian Endpoint

McFearless said...

"so I guess what I am saying is that how does the Fed actions help the real economy?"

they don't, this is the point of every comment I make about the Fed....this was the point of my comment last year...."so we got a stock market rally, so what"

The Fed can't force any bank to lend and they certainly can force anyone to borrow. The Fed's primary role since inception has been to expand credit, in fact, it is their only function they succeed at, unless you think they are doing their jobs with inflation and price stability...

call me ahab said...

The Fed can't force any bank to lend and they certainly can force anyone to borrow.

b22- my point exactly

Leftback said...

That means full employment for Fed economists, I think....

When they direct the money to people who will spend it (people with jobs and people with a need to feed and house their families) we will have growth. Directing it to CEOs and banksters isn't working.

Today could be a slippery one..

Leftback said...

Look, this is about filling a $3T hole (I am with Krugman on this point) while the housing market sloshes around and corrects its absurdities and imbalances. You guys wouldn't believe the foreclosure action in Greenwich...

McFearless said...

this is pure speculation, but based on actions so far, i can't actually see the bearded wizard getting money into peoples hands that will immediately spend it until actual deflation has actually taken hold, they appear ready to wait until the absolute bitter end before they help any regular Joes out....in the mean time, Joe needs to "suck it up", and this seems to come from the widely held belief that the Fed is already providing enough liquidity to reinflate.

Leftback said...

JOHNNY and Blanky just peeked at my stops.

Leftback said...

....in the mean time, Joe needs to "suck it up"

Yes, that is indeed the plan. Once we print a +100K jobs number, the liquidity will come gushing out of bonds and the world will be saved.

That's the wizard's theory, at least.

Cold Steel said...

I'm back. Are ya feelin' lucky??

Leftback said...

Push off, Cold Steel, at least until the NEW HOME SALE number (1).

call me ahab said...

the Wall Streeter Who Blogs had a pretty good post up last night following up on the Blockbuster BK-
getting everyone's ideas on companies that are next on the list-

obviously book sellers and publishers were brought up often-

but i don't know- hard to beat the convenience of a paperback to throw in you back pocket or backpack- especially while travelling- and if you lose it-

who cares- good friend to have on those down times-

I find it hard to believe that I will have to carry around an ac or battery powered apparatus around just to read a story

AmenRa said...

!1 straight minutes of higher 1-min candles. Somebody wants out at 1140-1150 and doesn't want to wait for EOD.

McFearless said...

I tightened my stops a bit so that I can have some profit from the Tuesday shorts if we are on our way to 1170's next.

gtla, this shit is getting "real"

AmenRa said...

That was supposed to say 11 minutes.

call me ahab said...

speaking of bankruptcies here's a company following the Montgomery Ward's model to extinction-

"Sears to Open 85 Toy Shops Ahead of Holidays"

maybe they see the future- and its toys-

FAO Schwarz got nothin' on them

Leftback said...

Before the POMO at 11, you'd expect some rotation into Treasuries.
So why not use the new homes data as the pivot?

LB thinks it is worth a small punt on the short side.
Adding to hedges, but getting really really tight at 9.55.

McFearless said...

Sears has been a bit of a disaster since EL got involved eh?

McFearless said...

CV,

just got to looking at the chart, thanks man, very interesting.

karen said...

morning! I overslept : (
back in a bit!

CV said...

monkey ward...

aah the good old days!

CV said...

@Mcf

at this point, that 61.8% mark (where the leading diagonal was) has been taken out...

However, it did go to about the 78.6% mark and is now hovering in between...

Leftback said...

Market has stalled in that pre-data way...
Have you had your fill, JOHNNY?

We are either going down, or we are going to take a run at 1150.

karen said...

good chart, CV.. this is almost over.. look at CAT and AMZN, can you find a difference in their candles?? overlay one atop the other, haha..

McFearless said...

yo CV,

check out your email....have something for you to take a look at.

CV said...

All I can REALLY say for sure is that the famous "THEY" have sure created themselves a mess...

These algos are absolutely bezerk in trying to paint lines that conform to patterns, yet react to swings...

The market is TRULY broken...

karen said...

no new high in $indu (yet : )
$bkx faltering..

McFearless said...

1146-1147 is a key area with the count I'm running with right now, where the C wave is .618 of the A wave I have marked.

Leftback said...

1 new home sold. Is that BTE..?

Actually 288K - a new low... !!

McFearless said...

I missed the numbers lefty, bad overall?

Leftback said...

JOHNNY should buy some bonds here.

Durables was -1.3%, new homes at a new low. Party on !!

CV said...

@McF

I'll take a look at that...

karen said...

tuesday high was 1148.59, but the monday's close was the high of the week and went down every day.. let's see what we get today.

copper on a tear but my little gold/copper miner flagging..

McFearless said...

"Durables was -1.3%, new homes at a new low. Party on"

ROR

going down is the new killing it!

72bat said...

ben -
new sales@ 288k (wte) were flat m-o-m, yet august is the month home sales close for re-locating families, before back-to-school, etc.

Leftback said...

Ouch.

BLANKY picked me off. I guess BRIAN SACK is at work today.

call me ahab said...

more Tepper-

Even though market reaction has been tepid, Tepper said this week's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee statement reflected a clear "put"—or the equivalent of an options play in which the government will do whatever it needs to keep the capital markets from sinking below a designated level.

"What, I'm going to say, 'No Fed, I disagree with you, I don't want to be long equities?'" said Tepper, president of Appaloosa Management in Short Hills, N.J., which oversees $12.4 billion in client assets. "We're a bond place, but we changed up to a little bit more equities recently."


"government will do whatever it needs to keep
I guess capital markets from sinking below a designated level"


we can only imagine what that level is- I wonder if it is somewhere above Dow 1000?

and is the Fed the government?

karen said...

uup in 22's

McFearless said...

yeah those are pretty bad numbers, I never get too caught up in the month to month because of the noise but there is a trend developing now.

McFearless said...

Karen,

re: DX, it's at the lower end of that big support area from early last year...seems to be making a nice A-B-C off the recent highs...we are in the C wave, I don't see the downtrend off $88 as an impulsive move lower, it's corrective from my chair.

the dollar is still a POS though

McFearless said...

ahab,

he was amazing this morning, but hey, this dude has been getting 30% a year for a long time for his clients, he's not a dummy, but I think his comments are a bit wanker like.

as for the Fed, they are unconstitutional, I know that much is certain.

Leftback said...

Waiting for a Treasury rally to develop.
So that I can sell it...

"We're a bond place, but we changed up to a little bit more equities recently." David Tepper.

This is more or less how LB has been investing as well. THE FED IS PUSHING US OUT OF Ts AND ALONG THE RISK CURVE. Tepper is a good example of someone who is successful because he doesn't "over-think it".

karen said...

the Tepper video:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/video-appaloosas-david-tepper-ben.html

McFearless said...

forget Tepper,

you guys NEED to watch that spanish prime minister video I linked yesterday, I think he lied through his teeth the whole time, watch and let me know what you think, I think it's about 8 or 9 mins long.

was there a top-step video yesterday?

CV said...

"I think his comments are a bit wanker like"...

CV keeps pointing out that it seems very odd that so many people who have supposedly gained respect over many years are coming out nowadays and using all this convoluted logic as the main reason to hold onto positions...

It makes you wonder...

call me ahab said...

I just thought it was interesting- the some "designated level"-

ok- I give up- what's the level?

CV said...

It's like...

When it was all going up on its own because the economy was functioning based on the biggest credit expansion in history, we could make tight comments and we all looked like geniuses...

Now that everything has blown up... Let's all join hands and sound off that there is someone around who can FIX the problem...

The "hope & pray" department...

McFearless said...

"ok- I give up- what's the level"

that's a secret only Bill Gross knows.

now suck it up

karen said...

excuse me if this was posted already:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/%EF%BB%BF%EF%BB%BFvolcker-financial-system-still-at-risk/

CV said...

Why doesn't anybody hear about "earnings growth" (or things of that nature anymore)...

Why is every market moving event some kind of INTERVENTION strategy by CB's or governments to assure everyone the problem will be FIXED?

Leftback said...

We are in ZIRP. Convoluted logic is the name of the game.

Anyone want to guess how many minutes ahead of the POMO they will start buying Treasuries? There is an 11am POMO, right?

LB still has a modest short position here. But it will not go home with me. Monday morning momo ramp jobs are not for me.

McFearless said...

here is the link, listen to all the claims he makes:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1597555289&play=1

I would seem that every time a public official comes out with comments like this, like "housing will not go down anymore in Spain" that they always end up eating the words.

Leftback said...

Print and Pray.

That's the mantra. One can't be entirely sure that it won't work.
It certainly isn't doing much for US employment thus far.

McFearless said...

he also claims they "changed the market views on Spanish sovereign debt" and that their plan is "being carried out to the letter" just like they planned it all.

McFearless said...

what does that mean, that it can work?

I'm with what Hendry said about QE to Joey Stigs

"the idea that QE works is oxymoronic"

McFearless said...

"Why is every market moving event some kind of INTERVENTION strategy by CB's or governments to assure everyone the problem will be FIXED"

exactly, like leftback just described it's the social mood of print and pray....

MOOOOOOd.

Leftback said...

How do you say in espaƱol: "It is contained..." ?

People are under-estimating the danger that someone big like Santander will blow up. We are over-focused on the US after-shocks when we need to think more about the European earthquake still to come.

I cannot believe the EURUSD is where it is. One thing that may well be ahead of us is a period where BUCKY and stocks go up together as US employment improves even slightly and rates begin to inch up.

call me ahab said...

the blogging Wall Streeter promptly removed a cartoon from the 18th- that is now posted today- with my comment posted on the 18th now in moderation-

here it is for all to enjoy-

"Kenyesian counter cyclical nonsense has you mesmerized-

tough to be counter cyclical when it’s increased spending 24/7 good times/bad times and all times-

admit its a fallacy- like a few drinks are good for you- but if you can’t stop drinking-

maybe there’s a problem (oh- but wait- this time is different- as soon as the good times roll again- we won’t think they will never end [human psychology?] and we will pay down the debt and balance the budget)-

cough . . .cough . . .bullshit


I guess he didn't like it- lol

McFearless said...

exactly, European banks as I'm to understand are in even worse shape than ours, which is hard to even imagine...this guy is out claiming that not a single bank in Spain "that matters" is undercapitalized, I watch that video and it just feels like some real bad stuff is brewing there right now, amazing to me some of the stuff he said.

Leftback said...

That's it for me on the hedging. Back to looking at my long positions....
Will return later to look at the Treasury market.

Can't win 'em all...

karen said...

laughing.. i was wondering what in the world a prime minister would be doing on CNBC.. but she said flat out.. he's on a "road show."

CV said...

The last two $SPX 60 minute candles look perfectly normal in a functioning market...

What a bunch of BS...

karen said...

Hokey/staged interview, BEN.. not sure i can get thru it.. sorry..

Listening to the "price of housing has gone up" section..

McFearless said...

yep, I thought it was nuts, I feel like that will end up getting linked all over within 12 months, they'll be blowing up and everyone will say

but he said......

call me ahab said...

. . .and what if the Fed doesn't do anything-

then will the markets collapse?

apparently so- as it appears that the Fed is like Atlas- holding the markets up on its weary shoulders-

without them- where would we be?

call me ahab said...

trade wars looming-

"House Panel Approves Bill Threatening Duties on China for 'Undervalued Currency'"

McFearless said...

perhaps the market would be down without the Fed, but I'm not certain of this, how could anyone be, I think we would have rallied anyway.

who's to say that people wouldn't think "oh I'll buy anyway because even though the Fed isn't doing anything, if things get worse they will"

exogenous events don't change moods

9/11
tsunamis
JFK assassination
anthrax scares
wars

chart em.

CV said...

"exogenous events don't change moods"

Let's see what happens when STEVE JOBS bites the pavement...

at least for a few days...

karen said...

bot a piece of dto.. 76.60, don't do what i do! looks like 76 is a given and possibly lower now..

hmm.. we haven't had a good 4% up across the indices day in a while.. even 2% hurts..

call me ahab said...

alright- got to break out a ladder and replace the battery in this damn smoke alarm-

woke me up 3:00 in the morning- non stop chirping- and what? I am going to break out a 12 ft ladder in the middle of the night half asleep?-

just broke out some ear plugs I use when I travel and went back to bed-

gotta roll to work after that little chore-

b22-

I think the "impression" that the Fed is helping the the markets stay up says it all-

because that means folks have zero faith in the values otherwise-

that is why fundamental valuations are worthless-

as they were during the dot com craze

all have a good day

karen said...

ahab.. i have removed every battery from every damn smoke alarm in this house!!

mcHAPPY said...

Anyone else noticing a case of ED?

CV said...

I just can't get over how cockamamey these 60 min $SPX candles look...

mcHAPPY said...

I believe the bulls are 90plus % on the EUR and the bears are 90plus % on the dollar. Such extremes are usually the end and not the beginning - of what I do not know.

karen said...

okay.. in need of a half cup of coffee and a shower.. see Nic, i really have reduced consumption! Wine not so much.. tho I was good last night! and now I've hit the stress/worry/anxiety limit this week so I've got to keep my head on straight.

wunsacon said...

>> "House Panel Approves Bill Threatening Duties on China for 'Undervalued Currency'"

It's about freaking time. Should've been tied to "free" trade in the first place.

CV said...

CAT above its 10/07 levels...

wunsacon said...

>> trade wars looming-

It's *been* a trade war, for 15 years. When are we going to fight, Mr. John Paul Jones?

karen said...

my MS friend just sent the Tepper video.. I replied that it reminded me of early 2008.. and that it makes me wonder if we won't end in a 2% down day..

McFearless said...

re: Jobs,

individual stocks are different than the market, it's the whole market that captures mass psychology, this is why we can't the waves so good on single issues.

but yeah, Jobs, he'll probably bring down the entire USA if something happens to him, so I see your point.

who gets his ninja stuff I wonder?

CV said...

IBM... if it closes the month here, will be at an ALL TIME HIGH (monthly)...

CV said...

MCD at an all time high

karen said...

mcd is NOT at an all time high! CV, dont ZH me..

CV said...

AMZN all time high

McFearless said...

ahab,

"b22-

I think the "impression" that the Fed is helping the the markets stay up says it all-
because that means folks have zero faith in the values otherwise-that is why fundamental valuations are worthless-as they were during the dot com craze

I 100% agree with this....it's all about the perception. All fundamentals lead to to subjective forecast, it's like driving down the highway looking in the rearview mirror.

CV said...

@karen

I'm talking MONTHLY CLOSING CANDLES here...

McD will close this month at an all time high...

McFearless said...

lol, CAT,

wow.

Bobby Brady said...

On the last thread, my "Tiki idol" warning to AmenRa (about being short) disappeared. (Technical glitch? Or did someone actually take offense to my silly remark? I hope not...no ill will intended.)

karen said...

dto at 76 even.. i got that right.. LOL..

karen said...

i'll wait for a jab lower to add or be content with what I have..

McFearless said...

on cat, clear trend in volume, but what else is new....look at the decline in late 07 into the 08 rise, might be a similar fractal at work here

Octopussy said...

Mood music for September equities...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9r0VCUOU8E8

McFearless said...

he said on CNBC the other day he wasn't ready to be president....social mood might demand it though:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/20100924/el_yblog_upshot/chris-christie-smacks-down-heckler

McFearless said...

Rosie asking the quesion I asked yesterday:

"Did we read this right? Page A2 of the Investor’s Business Daily runs with “Buffett: ‘We’re Still in Recession’”. Didn’t the Oracle say a few weeks back that economic conditions were improving across all of his company’s business lines?"

me: not to mention, he also stated there was no way we would double dip, perhaps he meant that we were still recession so a double dip wasn't possible?

Leftback said...

We are in that Alice in Wonderland market, where the worse the data, the more we buy stocks, b/c the more the FED is going to pump and print.

This is exactly the kind of logic that prevails during ZIRP/QE regimes. We are back to Mr Market wearing The Chicken suit. It'll work until it doesn't.

CV said...

and CV keeps asking for his change back in nickles...

Look here... You're getting $1.15 worth of change back if you ask for it in nickles...

http://www.coinflation.com/

Nickles bitchez!

McFearless said...

1,147.62 todays high so far, I'm doubting it will be much different by the close, A pause here and the next target is roughly 1213.82 if we aren't going to stop in the 1170's.

CV said...

Tell CHASE and their 1% cash back bonus they can shove it!

karen said...

come, come, come now, all the talk in early 08 was how the fed would save the day.. and then we got 666.

chatting with friend yesterday.. we talked mtg stories.. he cannot refinance his farm in HI, he's going to give it back to the bank.. will lose (not loose) his $225k cash investment : ( He said the banks in HI want the properties back to get rid of the Haolis anyway.

karen said...

i feel like we are watching a slow motion train wreck..

karen said...

just completed 60 min dia candle says rally over. ditto spy..

note the red gdx.. i'm gonna check most actives, next..

karen said...

same ol ones: C, BAC, Qs

PBR big volume today but down on this news: UPDATE: Finance Minister: Brazil To Hold 48% Stake In Petrobras
10:16 AM ET 9/24/10 | Dow Jones

karen said...

i know you are all sick of my avatar but you don't have to go radio silent on me.. : )

CV said...

That happens to be my favorite avatar...

I'm just working on my NCAA/NFL "picks" game thread for the weekend...

almost done...

McFearless said...

Karen,

I'm busy watching the slow motion trainwreck

do they have this in 3-D yet?

CV said...

anybody want a PREVIEW on any game handicaps for this weekend?...

They're all ready to go (but the thread will be published at 8AM tomorrow)...

But I can paste a game or two here if you can't wait...

karen said...

ugh! why did i come back and look!!

karen said...

are we looking for 1170 on monday?

karen said...

CV, I can wait, no worries : )

karen said...

$spx still no higher than tuesday.. how odd.

CV said...

Money Never Sleeps (in theatres today) - ror

CV said...

ROR2


A Visual Case Study In HFT Accumulation Perfection

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/visual-case-study-hft-accumulation-perfection

Kudlow said...

Karen (12:13),

I like to see a little ankle now and then.

McFearless said...

why not karen, it would certainly seem we are on our way....(1170)

there are only two outcomes, stocks go up, or stocks go up

ya heard?

CV said...

with the increasing parabolic blowoff in aapl, it means soon the stock will have to travel backward in time to rise as fast..."

karen said...

Clinton Says Democrats Must Stop ‘Mealy Mouthing’ in Campaign

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_WduUKcvOUs

Wall ST 2, the movie: http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-on-wall-street-2-2010-9

karen said...

oops.. just got myself a little sds..

CV said...

Clinton Says Democrats Must Stop ‘Mealy Mouthing’ in Campaign...

What the hell difference does it make what they SAY in any campaign?

What was "HOPE & CHANGE" but a lot of unfulfilled promises?

SOB's can't even pass a budget...

Or vote on extending tax cuts...

Clinton is an ass...

karen said...

businessinsider

SocGen's Dylan Grice Explains Why He's A Bear And Takes A Nasty Shot At Paul Krugman by @WhiteGM http://read.bi/d3IO7X

McFearless said...

If we close above 1147 I'm not sure that 1 of C is complete yet....lets actually hope it's not, bears would prefer to see it go higher so that 1 would likely be the longest wave in C.

the widespread bullish confidence right now is encouraging.

karen said...

Just released Themis Trading paper: What the SEC Staff Will Likely Recommend in Reaction to the May 6th Flash Crash http://bit.ly/9d5Yo

McFearless said...

The SEC is clueless, I'm not reading that shet.

McFearless said...

nothing against you of course karen, the paper is likely bad enough on it's own, I might also have to stare down Shapiro's giant forehead.

McFearless said...

the tepper comments/video, seem to have gone viral today

what's hilarious is all the people spouting about what a 'clear thinker' he is

I swear I am reliving 2007 all over again, I have a deja vu moment every single day this month, it's creepy.

McFearless said...

some more nonsense going on in Washington, it's all a big show isn't it:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/20100924/pl_yblog_upshot/stephen-colbert-draws-attention-to-self-then-farmworkers-during-hill-appearance

McFearless said...

alright, maybe everyone called it an early weekend I seem to be commenting to myself at the moment.

see you all later.

CV said...

Just marveling at the absurdity of it all...

Leftback said...

Colbert is a little too sophisticated for Republicans. They probably didn't realize that he was a caricature of themselves.

We should all quit puzzling over what SPX will do and figure out what TNX and TYX are going to do. Is the bottom in (as LB suspects) or not?

The big markets (bonds and FX) pull the strings... Nic warned yesterday that EURUSD had room to 1.35.

CV said...

@LB

Pardon me while I laugh... But please look at this chart and explain to me why I should give a FF what the TNX is doing at the moment...

http://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=176

CV said...

Where did that damn chart go...

Anyway... McHappy linked it up yesterday...

Nothing makes sense...

karen said...

I love the FF acronym but it's not very LL !
I think I <3 Norway ; )

Norway’s central bank sues Citigroup: Norway’s central bank has sued Citigroup for alleged misstatements over the ... http://bit.ly/dfwNgZ

CV said...

Anyway...

If I believe TNX has it wrong, it should be up around 4.25%...

If I believe it's right... S&P should be down around 740...

What does that tell me?

NOTHING!

karen said...

yeah, nothing makes sense! like why my longs aren't up the same %s as AAPL and AMZN and CAT and GLD...

karen said...

CV.. it tells you DEBT IS KING.. mtg your Farm at 3.5% and buy aapl.. it's a no brainer : )

karen said...

if you prefer NFLX over AAPL, that's okay, too. LOL.. look at NFLX candle today!

karen said...

Guess what I am hoping the last hour brings !!

CV said...

...and this...

"Nic warned yesterday that EURUSD had room to 1.35..."

---

Fine... but what does that tell me but SQUAT?

At this point AAPL is in all time high territory...

AAPL is what? 20% of the NAZ? And what about AMZN...

Hell - at this point these could rise to the moon... What does that tell me?

The entire quadrillion debt derivative bubble hinges on getting two stocks to the stratosphere?

I know I'm being absurd here, but not any more absurd than these markets are behaving...

ben22 said...

does anyone here use apple tv or know anyone that has it?

what's it like?

CV said...

@karen

Like I said before...

With the parabolic moves in those stocks, to get them to go even more parabolic would require bending time backwards...

Maybe that's the strategy...

Hell - if we could bend it back to 1999, then we wouldn't have had 8 years of Bush & 2 of Obama...

It would be a start, I suppose...

Gold would be what? Back to $200 an ounce?

Ben22 said...

a few months ago everyone had the 1.35 target, it seems a lot more likely now than it did then, and I dont' really see many people talking about it, would complete a nice wave pattern there, has the right "look"

If we get a corrective looking retrace of this September move, a nice deep three waver, I'm gonna have to back up the truck long.....whooopie!

ben22 said...

oh, that second comment at 2:39 was regarding stocks....not the your O

CV said...

@ben

Yeah the entire European debt crisis seems to have been "fixed" by some cagey central bankers...

ben22 said...

dude, didn't you watch that prime minister video, of course they fixed the problem, their plans have been carried out "to the letter", they "changed the market perception about their structural issues"

just needed a couple long weekends was all, things are fine, move along evil speculator.

CV said...

It must have fixed itself over the long August holiday while everyone is on vacation...

karen said...

http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/09/stifel-nicolaus-points-out-neg.html

karen said...

I am not a Cramer fan.. but this is NOT what he said in regard to bear stearns: zerohedge

Maybe @jimcramer needs to be held accountable for telling people to buy Bear Stearns days before its bankruptcy. Is it about time yet?

I watched that video, and what he said was that your money was safe AT bear Stearns.. in other words, if you had an account there, your money was safe.. Anyone care to express their opinion on how they remember it?? thanks.

karen said...

I need to dig around and find out what Jeff Cooper is saying about this rally.. back soon!

ben22 said...

even if he did, don't we have bigger fish to fry than krammer?

I'm not a fan of his either, but why not go after guys like Dick Fuld, the man with a tan, or ken Lewis and Stan O'neill instead.

these people were never held accountable, and they had a far bigger negative impact than JC.

CV said...

How about Anthony "Godfather" Mozillo?

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-warns-of-big-treasury-overshoot-sees-10-year-yields-going-to-15-2010-9

Deutsche Bank Warns Of Big Treasury Overshoot, Sees 10-Year Yields Going To 1.5%

CV said...

BIDU nearing $100...

UFB!

karen said...

CV.. Mozillo is "the man with a tan" in Ben's list.

CV said...

Remember - there was a 1 for $10 split earlier this year...

So that's basically $1000

CV said...

@karen

Oh... I get it... It was attached to FULD so I didn't catch it...

ben has something about "tans"... "tan" joe (on Fast $$... ror

ben22 said...

alright guys, I'm getting out of here

everyone have a great weekend, I'll be stopping in here and there, might link up some tunes after I have a couple frou frous.

ben22 said...

I just have a thing about orange fake tans, I think it started back in middle school, but I'll save that story for another time

karen said...

May I sing to you?

CV said...

See... the problem with the economy is that there's not enough liquidity and leverage...

NEW CHART IN THREAD

Asset prices need to rise to pull us out of this deflationary spiral...

AmenRa said...

When it's all said and done the promised land (1-1-5-0) was denied.

CV said...

@Amen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD1KqbDdmuE

AmenRa said...

Uh oh TICKS are taking off. I think the algos heard me.

AmenRa said...

CV

Before I look..is that Melba Moore?

karen said...

AR, you hardly cheer me.. it's back and fill to 1170 now. tho i might be another piece of sds just in case this week's kool aid leads to next week's hangover.

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

Is this what you mean by Frou Frou?

CV said...

long version

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOt3r_aNNxE&feature=related

AmenRa said...

HAHAHA nevermind

karen said...

CV.. too funny! laughing.. of course i had to goog melba moore..

CV said...

I'll use the "may I help you" riff... - ror

AmenRa said...

Karen

Someone is doing major buying to push the market over (1-1-5-0) before the weekend hits. UFB

AmenRa said...

Melba Moore: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTNu-pNdx9g

karen said...

looks like a close below 1047 on the 5 min candle.. but let's see what they can do!

CV said...

@Amen

At this point, it looks like the MONTHLY 3lb challenge level is "on"...

Steve Hack-berg said...

The early EWI forecast for tonight:

Minor 3 has started yet again. But we are serious this time! And because we call everything the start of minor 3, once the REAL minor three starts we'll call it and advertise it that we called it! That's how we roll. Oh yeah, and if that Neely or AT fellow turn out correct as they have been since early July, we'll call that too with an alt-count put in a day or two before it becomes apparent to all. Have a great weekend.

CV said...

Thanks Steve!

Try some fava beans and a nice Chianti to go along with your meal...

karen said...

have i mentioned that i dislike this market?

CV said...

@karen

LOL---Oh well...

I've gotta go...

For all - I have NFL & NCAA picks scheduled to launch at 8AM tomorrow morning...

Early pick... SMU (+17.5) vs. TCU tonight - 1 unit...

karen said...

WTFE !! that's all I have to say..*

*another one of those expressions that reminds me of someone and makes me smile.

karen said...

LOVE THIS! "Haha, I just moved markets today."

http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-september-24-2010-9

ben22 said...

@McHappy,

well, I do like that Frou Frou, but I was talking about the cold and fruity drinks I prefer, I'm not that manly dude drinking a beer, for better or worse.

This was interesting:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/20100924/el_yblog_upshot/obamas-no-good-very-bad-week

"Quite frankly, I'm exhausted. Exhausted of defending you, defending your administration, defending the man for change I voted for, and deeply disappointed with where we are right now," Velma Hart told the president in a televised question and answer session. "I've been told that I voted for a man who said he was going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class. I'm one of those people and I'm waiting, sir, I'm waiting. I don't feel it yet."

ben22 said...

that woman sounded intelligent, she presented herself very well and I'm sure she was nervous, I think she speaks for the many, and their concerns grow by the day

the article says Obama answered her question "deftly" but he did not, he simply showed that they have put new rules in place that help people get into more debt.....

will people go into debt again? Can they?

ben22 said...

it would also seem Obama thinks retirement is a right.

It is not, making work optional and being able to stay comfortable for the average American requires sacrifice, diligence and discipline.

Interestingly enough, as I'm to understand it, there is no word in the Hebrew language for retirement.

72bat said...

ben -
"making work optional and being able to stay comfortable for the average American requires sacrifice, diligence and discipline."
this was lost to sight to the american middle class in the transition from children of the depression to their boomer kids, most of whom came to believe retirement is a right

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