Sunday Evening Post & Monday Morning Audibles

Good Evening All,

It was an interesting week with the S&P Cash market failing to take out the 1131 once again. That level is indeed the "Ultra Pivot." It's worth pointing out, however, that the futures DID take out the proposed "neckline" in the pre-market on Friday morning and then FAILED. It looked quite bearish pre-market, but the cash index "hung in there" before the weekend.

It was several weeks ago when I suggested that we were in the middle of "choppy" and complex period--that has definitely been the case. At this point, though, we seem to be nearing the end of the "choppy" period and it seems like a good idea to increase our short position. We'll be going from a 20% Max Short to a 30% Max Short this evening.

The DXY took an unexpected dip this week that stopped me out of all DXY length. I still like that market for a long side bet, but the pattern is a little too confusing at this point. It's something that will need more analysis this week.

Random "Football" Thought: Can anyone beat Chelsea? The Blues seem somewhat unstoppable at this point. They are 5-0 having scored 17 times and allowing only ONE goal. Those are some gaudy numbers.


---


CV adds, 9.20.10... As ususal, I'll let Andy's column stand as the Monday Morning Audibles in the abscence of some major news event...


CV is looking, "hoping" really, for the end of this 8+% in September... I should be happier this weekend because it ended up positive versus the bookie, & all 3 of my fantasy teams won (well - one isn't over yet, but the other guy needs the Saints to basically shut down the 49ers, and engineer 4 sacks 4 turnovers and a trip to the end zone)... But ya never know... 


Put it this way... that's about what the dollar needs to get going (and to get a correction in PM's), but we all know where that's going...


The downside (to my weekend)... Is only that I put about 6 hours of work into the yard on Saturday morning (mostly leaf duty)... Left to move some furniture to the farm... Come back this morning and there are now more leaves down than when I left Saturday... Kinda feels like trying to "short" any asset prices...


Nobody wants me to attach any Bloomberg headlines here because they would just piss you off... Or, if your thinking lines up with certain hues of pastel... You could debate them as functioned reasoning... I don't have time...


There - now I feel better :-)... ROR


Good Luck Trading!

Some sage words from Milton Friedman.....




S&P Update 19 Sep 10

338 comments:

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AmenRa said...

Thanks Andy. I see there were six more banks closed on Friday.


*I'll bet Moss told Reavis he shouldn't miss training camp next time.

Nic said...

Thanks Andy! printing and taking to bed with me.

mcHAPPY said...

Andy this is some of the best and unbiased analysis I've seen. I think this might be your best work yet given where the markets are at this time.

AmenRa said...

I know I shouldn't be laughing but "a dirty bird can't fly with a broken wing" commercial is funny.

Andy T said...

mcHappy: Thanks for that compliment....

Also, I hate Fantasy Football.

72bat said...

Below is verbatim from my sister, retired in wisconsin. didn't someone else here receive, or report on someone else receiving a similar offer recently from wells fargo?
"Wells Fargo Home Mortgage selected me to be the beneficiary of a 'closing-cost-free, 4.5% fixed rate, 20 yr' refinance, with no pre-payment penalty, no escrow requirement, no requirement to bank at WF... I have 23 years left on my 30 yr 6% fixed rate mortgage. So, not only is my term reduced but my monthly payment is less. I have no idea why they made this offer. I suspect they are trying to reduce their portfolio and consequently their capitalization requirements. The interesting thing is that they used some calculation service to assess the value (rather than a site appraisal) that pegs my house at $211,000. Now--the UW Credit Union site appraisal last May pegged my house at $185,000. I think this means that the mortgage industry is still messed up. Wells Fargo makes money on the 1 or 2 basis points in my 4.5%. But, heck, what do I care????"

72bat said...

bengals-ravens: both teams looked hapless today, only the bengals less so.

prosciutto gristle said...

Thanks, AT!

You see the guy in the tweed jacket biting his nails when everyone else is clapping? That was me in 1978. Economists confused me then, too.

karen said...

That MF clip was ever so perfect and timely.. The charts were out of my league, and over my head, unfortunately..

Bat.. that is wild stuff from your sister.. and confirms the Mish(?) post/comment.. that I found so hard to believe.. In trying to fathom it I can only come up with ZIRPFE..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Liberty and Equity!

I like that...the English has determined a new way of liberating your equity...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39265847

"The UK's tax collection agency is putting forth a proposal that all employers send employee paychecks to the government, after which the government would deduct what it deems as the appropriate tax and pay the employee's by bank transfer."

...I can't see any problems with this, can you guys?

call me ahab said...

good post AT-

really like the Friedman clip- no truer words were ever spoken-

did you catch the dude in the tweed jacket at the end-

he wasn't buying it- or he was confused- or both

Andy T said...

BinT: Saw that article on the UK government this morning and couldn't believe what I was reading. That has to be one of the worst ideas of all time.....

call me ahab said...

FDA to consider approval of modified salmon

does anyone else find this repugnant and somehwhat frightening?

The US appears to be at the forefront of GMO's- the rest of the world not so enamored

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Andy,

If that English tax idea were to come to fruition, I think you'd have to define a new system of social governance. It wouldn't be communism or socialism, I'm not sure what you'd call it. All private pay goes to the government, and they then decide what you'd get to keep. Very interesting idea, probably by some eggheads who've never worked in private industry.

CV said...

I don't know what to say...

The Bengals always seem to have the Ravens number...

It's the Marvin Lewis curse...

He was the one responsible for the Super Bowl Victory (not Billick)... But Billick took all the credit...

Now Billick is off polishing his Kyle Boller man crush fotos...

call me ahab said...

the game of the week was Skins/Texan-

unbelievable comeback-

Skins look very good however

CV said...

@Bruce

Actually I hope they DO IT?

Why? (Has CV lost his mind)...

NO! The reason I hope they do it is that we literally need something to happen for people to get up out of their chairs, go to the woodshed, and dig out the torches and pitchforks...

That might be a good "catalyst"... (to use a deplored word)...

CV said...

@ahab

That was a great game (Skins-Texans)...

Both teams played hard and with high velocity...

I'm already likely to make DALLAS (over Houston), my PICK OF THE WEEK next week...

Houston has played two exhausting games in a row (Indy & Washington)... Washington was also physical)...

They can't have a lot left in the tank, and now they'll have to face a Dallas team that's talented (but desperate)...

I'd look for the Cowboys to find their groove...

Skins go to St. Louis... Possiblt they'll look past the Rams and have a tough time...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Why? (Has CV lost his mind)...


...Let me mull that over for a moment or two......

:)

CV said...

take three :-)

call me ahab said...

BinT-

dude- it's not the people who earned it's money- it's the government's-

and they'll decide how much you need of it-

sounds perfectly resonable (and logical) to me

CV-

that Andre Johnson catch to tie on fourth down was crazy-

. . . and Walker- c'mon!

how 'bout the Bears- look very legit- pretty impressive catch by Hester

call me ahab said...

sorry- Walter!

CV said...

...all I know is that allowing a team to call time out like a millisecond before a snap is the most idiotic rule in football and ought to be changed...

These guys break their bones for 3 hours for the game to hinge on something like that?

AmenRa said...

Sugar trading above its monthly 3LB reversal price (24.55). Looks to be heading back to its all time high of 28.00. Food prices should start to take off.

CV said...

we'll see how "legit" the bears are when they play Green Bay this weekend...

CV said...

@Amen

"Food prices should start to take off..."

Shhhh! don't tell ben... He doesn't believe me...

call me ahab said...

Gano was definitely iced- the 2nd kick was woeful-

felt sorry for the dude-

I wanted the Skins to hang on for the win

McFearless said...

ahab,

I noticed the same guy in the MF clip, he def. was not buying it. That video series is great, in some other clips there is some serious interaction with the crowd. Also, dude, how about McNabb, 400+ yards, he can still play.

AT,

dude, this was a fantastic update, the way you laid out the three scenarious at the end for S&P was tight. Given EWI's fees for it's updates, and the fact that they have been running with a bogus count since May (P3) I'm thinking you should go ahead and start your own service AndyWave, $15-$20/month.

Full disclosure: I am NOT a PhD.

McFearless said...

"Shhhh! don't tell ben... He doesn't believe me"

meh....I believe the actual prices, which aren't going up, nor were things really much more expensive when sugar was at an all time high.

Deflation sinks ALL ships....just my idea

McFearless said...

I have Cutler in my other league but I'm not sold on the bears at all, forte needs to stay healthy, and I think Dallas is worse than people realize....so you consider Detroit and Dallas, who knows what they are really all about (Bears), lets see them against Green Bay

CV said...

"Also, dude, how about McNabb, 400+ yards, he can still play"...

Rumor has it that VINCENT JACKSON will get dealt to the Skins...

Put that into your pipe & smoke it...

AmenRa said...

Ben

I think producers are paying for it out of their bottom line. That keeps the final product from having a price increase. Eventually they'll pass the increase to their customers or layoff more of their employees.

CV said...

Cutler should have gotten MANGLED against Dallas...

They (Demarcus Ware) actually were mangling him in the first quarter, but I have to give them credit for making an adjustment)...

It's only a matter of time before he gets put in the hospital tho...

Probably when he faces the VIKES...

CV said...

@Amen

Dude... Ever check out what a box of cereal costs?

I don't eat cereal... But that's where it ends up...

Effin $4 for a box of cereal that lasts about 3 bowls...

CV said...

So guess what? Nobody on this blog probably eats cereal...

Except for maybe Jennifer (who has to buy it for her kids)...

CV said...

Try telling a kid they can't have cereal for breakfast...

It's a damn racket!

call me ahab said...

speaking of cereal- have you noticed that the cereal aisle is a mile long- stacked top to bottom w/ every imaginable kind of cereal-

not even good for you

AmenRa said...

Futures failed to close at its highs. Somebody out there might be a little bit nervous.

AmenRa said...

CV

I eat cereal occasionally. I did notice the boxes are smaller or the weight of the box is lower.

call me ahab said...

b22-

McNabb looked great- all kinds of protection though-

Schaub was getting knocked all over the place- still pulled out a great game

McFearless said...

Ra,

in general, my view, there aren't any businesses with pricing power right now that could easily pass costs on to consumers, so we'll see about that attempt, i highly doubt this is going to change anytime soon, people have no money, wages are stagnant at best, and less people can obtain credit, if they want it at all.

CV,

regarding cereal, my wife bought a ton of cereal at the grocery store yesterday, all i'm going to say is, it's amazing what a few coupons can do, we dont' pay anywhere near $4 for any cereal and I got some really sugary crap this weekend, anyone paying that much for cereal is a dip shit, and I mean that.

Our grocery bill is far less than it was last year so far YTD, we are not changing habits at all, but my wife uses the sales when they are available, I think most people are just too lazy, and therefore they overspend (read....overpay).

McFearless said...

my wife went to high school with Schaub, she didn't even know who he was (she's REALLY into sports)

CV said...

@mcF

"could easily pass costs on to consumers, so we'll see about that attempt, i highly doubt this is going to change anytime soon, people have no money"...

Um... not so fast...

FOOD STAMPS & STUPIDITY

McFearless said...

food stamps give companies pricing power?

I'm gonna need you to explain that one to me...it's monday morning.

McFearless said...

what happened with Brandon jacobs last night?

call me ahab said...

gotta roll-

all have a good day-

need 38 points tonight from Vernon Davis, my kicker and my defense-

possible- not probable-

later

CV said...

@mcF

Look - There is only one thing in the world that people HAVE to buy (if they don't grow it 4 themselves)... That's FOOD...

Everything else is discretionary...

You've seen the swelling roles of FOOD STAMP recipients... Most of the people who go on those make poor food choices (or at don't go to absolute extremes to stretch their food dollar - because you could have enough food to feed an army if you just bought 50 pound bags of rice with your food stamps)...

Americans are addicted to SUGAR...

So it goes to say, at minimum, SUGAR based food (which is just about everything - but most obvious in breakfast cereal)... Retains it's PRICING POWER the most...

That's my argument... I stand by it... (and I have observed it - because I shop for food)...

CV said...

Brandon Jacobs was pissed and threw his helmet...

He meant to toss it into the bench, but it got caught in the sticky part of his glove (so it flew into the stands)...

It happens... It's happened to me with a golf club before, and I was so mortified when I almost killed someone, that I never do that anymore)...

One day it'll happen to Tiger woods...

McFearless said...

CV,

when I look at the food choices today, I think:

sugar vs. salt

don't you have to give salt the leg up in importance since it helps shelf life, I thought more foods used a sugar substitute, like soda?

Either way, Americans are addicted to credit as well, but things change, whether or not food inflates in the future remains to be seen, today, companies just dont' have pricing power, you cited the $2 value meals just last week i believe, I can find lots of these reports currently:

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/22072010/2/biz-finance-loblaw-feels-deflation-pressure-cheaper-food-profit-falls.html

"In the second quarter for Loblaw Companies we deflated at a faster rate versus the first quarter, and we were deflating at a deeper rate as we exited the quarter than as we entered it," he said.

And here is WMT lowering prices, a fairly good guage of overall pricing power if there ever was one:

http://www.registercitizen.com/articles/2010/05/30/news/doc4c01fbf1928c1532054248.txt

The chain has lowered prices on 22 foods and essentials, with an average savings of about 30 percent per item.

"Examples of new cuts include lowering the price of a 24-pack of soda cans from about $7 to between $3.77 and $5, depending on the store, and lowering the price of a 40-ounce bottle of ketchup from about $2.50 to about $1."

McFearless said...

oh he'll get fined for that then, I heard maybe it bounced off the bench....they should just bench him anyway though, all that dancing he was doing last night, hit someone already, you're huge.

CV said...

I'm never going to win the "food inflation" argument with you...

But you're not going to win it against me either...

ROR

CV said...

I know what I see...

I just went to the store and bought a not too large can of basic coffee, "store brand" dishwasher detergent, and one loaf of the CHEAPEST bread on the shelf...

Something tells me that the $20 I paid for that was TOO HIGH...

McFearless said...

yeah, we are both too stubborn, and I think everyone else left

ha

McFearless said...

utilizing coupons could save a household of 2 at least $1,000 a year on groceries, easy, and that's with very little work:

http://www.grocerycouponguide.com/articles/saving-90-percent-on-groceries/

AmenRa said...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7CfstbeOMEU
Ally’s GMAC Mortgage Halts Evictions Across 23 States

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Ally Financial Inc.’s GMAC Mortgage unit told brokers and agents to halt evictions tied to foreclosures on homeowners in 23 states including Florida, Connecticut and New York.

GMAC Mortgage may “need to take corrective action in connection with some foreclosures” in the affected states, according to a two-page memo dated Sept. 17 marked “urgent.” Ally Financial spokesman James Olecki confirmed the contents of the memo. Brokers were told to immediately stop evictions, cash- for-key transactions and lockouts, according to the document, addressed to GMAC preferred agents.

The lender will also suspend sales of properties on which it has already taken possession. The letter tells brokers to notify buyers that the company will extend closing dates by 30 days. Buyers will be able to cancel their agreement to purchase and get their deposit back, according to the letter.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gmac-halts-all-foreclosures-23-states-heels-florida-judge-finding-jpm-committed-court-fraud-
GMAC Halts All Foreclosures In 23 States On Heels Of Florida Judge Finding JPM Committed Court Fraud

As we pointed out last week, a certain judge in Florida set quite a precedent when he found that JPM, as servicer for a Fannie mortgage, had committed court fraud by foreclosing while not in possession of the actual mortgage. We then concluded that "The implications for the REO and foreclosures track for banks could be dire as a result of this ruling, as this could severely impact the ongoing attempt by banks to hide as much excess inventory in their books in the quietest way possible." Not a week has passed since, and we are already proven right. Today, Bloomberg discloses that GMAC Mortgage, a unit of the affectionately renamed Ally Bank, has halted all foreclosures in 23 states, including Florida, Connecticut and New York. Who would have thought that being caught with your pants down, doing something so blatantly illegal as collecting on something you do not own, would actually have adverse consequences. And GMAC is just the beginning - we expect many more mortgage servicers to scurry now that the light has been shone on their shell game. The silver lining - the permabull pundits will cheer this development now that foreclosures will plunge off a cliff as mortgage holders and servicers scramble to reconcile who owns what, and just on whose balance sheet the mortgage flows should show up.


***This is about to get really interesting***

CV said...

Call me dumbfounded by a market that is on it's 3rd attempt to push past 1130...

Last time, it stalled for the better part of 12 days... Now we're going on the 6th day...

What part of YOU SHALL NOT PASS don't you understand...

Note: I'm only saying that to offer myself up as a sacrifice and LET it pass (just to break the logjam)...

In any case... These "propped up" prices sure smack of desperation...

I-Man said...

I hate that stupid timeout before a field goal rule... its bush league.

I'm glad Shanihan didnt do it right back to them tho.

Whatever.

At least Dallas and NYG lost.



BTW...

WTF Headline of the Day:

Paychecks to the Govt. Sounds like a grand idea... whats that? Neo-Social-Feudalism??? What fucking planet are we on?

I-Man said...

Ra!

That was my second WTF headline of the day!

Now, whats "the story" behind the story... thats the Trillion Dollar Question... not alot of facts in that "release".

CV said...

@McF

"utilizing coupons could save a household of 2 at least $1,000 a year on groceries, easy, and that's with very little work:"

That's all subjective, because it means you have to buy the things on offer to get the savings...

Which means you don't necessarily get what you want...

It's like saying...

"People would realize a $5,000 per year savings on their travel & vacation if they would utilize the DISCOUNT COUPONS that allow them to spend a fun filled & luxurious week in PBeaver Falls, PA instead of Bora Bora...

McFearless said...

people get a look at Jupiter last night?

prettay cool stuff

Jennifer said...

I'm still getting caught up on posts, but I just had to say that strangely enough, in the entire universe of foods that aren't good for them, cereal may be the one food my kids don't like. They are picky about combinations and textures, so they don't like the cold milk mixed w/ cereal thing. Pink snuggie lover would eat a whole box of fruit loops dry, but I won't buy them for her. Toast is our empty morning calorie source of choice. When she was 3, the pink snuggie lover sent her grandparents into hysterics when she asked what was in french fries. When she learned that they contained fat and salt, she thought about that for a second or two and announced happily "I like fat and salt!"

Jennifer said...

Okay, what just happened? I looked up, S&P was up 3. I look away for less than a minute and now we're up more than 8? F....this isn't going to be a good day. I've got a fun day of glorified chauffeuring ahead of me, and I guess losing money too.

CV said...

People tend to be "moronic" about food...

Try living WITHOUT fat and salt...

Here... I'll put you out in the desert without salt, fat, or water... See how long you survive...

The problem with Americans isn't fat, or salt, or carbs, or protein...

The problem is ABUNDANCE...

Which is something that CV points out day after day after day after day...

Jennifer said...

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/spx-monthly-levels-and-the-magic-indicators-revealing-them/

I thought this was a good weekend read.

I-Man said...

Lets just change the NFL season so it goes yearlong, and theres games every night, and then dole out free six packs of Budlight for all.

I-Man said...

Thats bread and circuses, American Style, bitchez...

CV said...

@Jennifer

I haven't clicked on the link yet...

But "magic indicators"... Sounds like we're talking Harry Wanger here...

CV said...

@I-Man

I'm ALL FOR THAT... (circuses 24/7)

I'm not kidding when I say this... But OBAMANOMICS has turned CV into a completely unproductive person...

Thanks Barack!... You and Peggy Joseph have given me new inspiration...

McFearless said...

"Which means you don't necessarily get what you want"

oh come on dude, you are grasping....let me give you an example.

I like cookies.... a lot, but that doesn't mean I have to get the same brand of cookie every single time to be satisfied.

if chips a hoy are not on sale and that keebler elf cookie guy is, then we get the keebler elf cookie guy, if none of them are on sale, and I really want a cookie, if I just have to have a cookie so bad that I can't wait (which is a bit sad yes?), then I buy the store brand, if honey nut cheerios are my favorite cereal and I run out and this week there is only a coupon for regular cheerios then I get the regular, am I really that much worse off because they aren't the same exact cheerios? I don't really think so, and if the two weeks I need to eat out of that box instead of the honey nut box are the hardest two weeks of my year, because I didn't get exactly what I wanted, well then I've got a pretty easy life don't I? Ever try generic rice krispies or corn flakes....they taste exactly the same as the brand name, lots of cereals are like this, figured this out in college when I was dirt poor.

almost every product goes on sale at one point or another during the month at the grocery store, you just need to look, now if people are so out of control that they need their product right then and there and that anything besides the exact brand is unacceptable, well then that's a choice, but I'm certainly not going to call that food inflation.

I generally look for ways to not pay full price on anything, food, clothes, service on my car, and on and on, I've been able to save a lot of money over the years like this and then re-invest that money back into my business so I can get multiples back on it. I find it to be part of sound money managment practices, if people have better things to do with their time then so be it, but they should hardly complain about price if those are their habits, they made a choice, nobody forced them.

karen said...

good morning! overslept on purpose.. too bad about the dollar!

karen said...

he's got tomorrow's post up today but whatever:

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2010

cashing out today
it looks like we will put in a high today. so i will cash out at the end of the day and take a short position provided we trade near the 1145 - 1150 zone.

http://www.tradeyourwayout.com/

CV said...

@MCF

ROR... Seriously ROR...

My man... You're the only one I know IN THE WORLD that could come up with 4 paragraphs laid out to support an argument on Keebler Elves and discount coupons...

... and... as Cuba Gooding Jr. would put it to Jerry Maguire...

"And I dig that about you man"!!

I-Man said...

Go back to bed Karen, nothing to see here...

McFearless said...

lol, that's how I roll man!

and those elves, don't get me wrong, I'm a die hard chips a hoy guy, I do lines of those things like a coke head....but those elves are really good if you are in the moment with them.

Jennifer said...

McF -- you will learn if you ever have children, that not all (cookies, chicken nuggets, spaghetti sauce, etc.) are created equal. It is an unwritten law -- the product for which you have a coupon will produce a meal that the wee natives will refuse to eat, resulting in whining, cajoling, some yelling, wine drinking on the part of the meal fixer, and depending on the number of children involved, the relative thinness of the children involved, and the will power of the parent at any given time, most likely throwing a lot of food away. So, unless the coupon is for a product that I know the tribe approves of, I don't shop with coupons. It may be ridiculous, but since I'm usually the only adult home at meal time, and I'm significantly outnumbered by cute but pesky and opinionated little ones, I often give in to their absurd demands. My oldest, who now eats anything you put in front of her with no questions asked, went through a phase when she was 2-3 where she literally refused to eat for days at a time. She actually told my parents "I don't like food." SO, she got a lot of McNuggets since they were the one food she liked for about a whole year. Healthy? No. Life sustaining? Reasonably.

CV said...

AAPL at new all time highs (if anybody was watching)...

GOOG over $500 again...

karen said...

bespokeinvest
Anyone think the White House planned the town hall meeting to coincide with the NBER announc... http://soc.li/4qzmoph

CV said...

@MCF

(name of husband of character played by Shelly Winters in the original Poseidon Adventure) would be telling you and me that we needed to get along on this awkward debate on food inflation... ror...

CV said...

@karen

Frankly... I'm surprised... EVER... if the WH plans anything...

McFearless said...

the guy at trade your way out has a very similar larger chart/method as Andy T in the big picture, he's a Neely guy more than he is an othodox counter, and those guys have probably served readers better than an orthodox counter has the last 12 months, though I don't think his anlaysis is as thought out as Andy's, just my opinion of course, and while he has us pulling back now, if you go through his charts he's looking for new highs well above the April high by early next year if not later this year, 1,300-1,400 if I'm not mistaken, this is where he and AT part ways, Andy's charts show that the C wave could not possibly be over yet, he's taking a much more strict approach with Neely's rules compared to tywo, at least from what I can tell now that I'm going through Neely's book. Either way, tywo had this last move pegged about as good as anyone did out there so props to him.

We'll see who ends up being right on the larger time scale.

Short Crone said...

Coupons are primarily issued for highly processed foods. I follow Michael Pollen's advice-shop primarily on the outer wall of the grocery store, or better yet, shop locally.

Breakfast cereals are worthless. I have such a crash about an hour after eating that I've sworn off the poison. Yogurt, nuts, mueslix, and berries for me please!

CV said...

on AAPL...

Actually, the new high is kind of interesting here...

If you look at the DAILY... The RSI is diverging... But the new peak RSI is at 78.6% of the other peak in late July...

It has a better "look" to it than the June peak (which - incidentally peaked near June opex)...

karen said...

Oh, I just got the joke! If the recession is over, shouldn't the dollar be soaring? Ben, honestly, if some of this levitation doesn't find its way to the deleverage column.. this is QE and ZIRP. and it will get very ugly..

McFearless said...

Jennifer,

I tried to pull that stuff with food when I was younger, my mom was not having any of it though, so I ate what was put on the table, she used to buy Corn Flakes all the time, which I hated, but that's what we had, so when I complained it was usually met with the worst words a kid could hear from his Mom, especially in the summer time:

"wait till your father gets home"

that usually did the trick, like magic.

CV said...

Other thing too is that this new high in AAPL is likely to cause a bearish divergence on the WEEKLY chart...

karen said...

not that this matters cuz housing never had anything to do with our economy, right?

http://247wallst.com/2010/09/20/home-builders-say-no-market-recovery/

McFearless said...

"Ben, honestly, if some of this levitation doesn't find its way to the deleverage column.. this is QE and ZIRP."

Karen, it was a long weekend, I'm not entirely sure of what you are trying to say here.....?

CV said...

@karen

As long as we seem to be going though this process where "THE ECONOMY" is thought of in terms of MONEY, nothing will have to do with anything...

When we return to the idea that "THE ECONOMY" has to do with WEALTH and PRODUCTION, then things will make more sense...

I-Man said...

Intraday pullbacks?!

Who needs em?

CV said...

@I-Man

Seriously...

What we really need here is for this entire week to be filled with POSITIVE news stories...

Real market turns won't occur on negative news...

Keep the good news rolling... RECESSION OVER baby! Party like it's 1999

karen said...

think i'll try for some sds.. i'm feeling a bit reckless today : )

CV said...

Oh wait I forgot...

It's "THEY" who are keeping the stock market up...

You know... because of... drumroll...

THE ELECTIONS

CV said...

@karen

I'm getting close...

At this point I keep spying that gap up near 1150...

But as has been the case all summer... I keep getting too greedy with waiting for the final print (that misses)...

So maybe it's time to mosey on in...

karen said...

interesting chart, that sds.. one could argue it is a massive H & S projecting 22 minimum.

McFearless said...

if they are keeping the market up because of the elections what are people going to say if a bunch of these tea party people get elected?

probably the tune will change

I-Man said...

Risky business

karen said...

wouldn't it be AMAZING if we replayed june 21 ??

CV said...

@McF

Yeah - I wonder what's going to happen when the THEY are teapartiers...

McFearless said...

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/09/market-is-overbought-with-sentiment-running-high.html


did people read the new EWT that came out over the weekend, I wasn't very impressed.

CV said...

@karen

"wouldn't it be AMAZING if we replayed june 21 ??"

---

Take a look at the DAX candle...

McFearless said...

at the end of that Yelnick post, this is near exactly what I have in my mind right now on how this plays out:

"Perhaps we get a near-term low between Sp850-950, and then have a pretty good run up into the 2012 election summer. This would fit a wave structure where the Hope Rally is a wave A, the current correction a wave B, and an 18-month C wave is ahead. Within the current wave B, the Flash Crash fell 180 S&P pts, the sideways summer has come back up to 1130, and a final wave down that is about as big as the Flash Crash would go to 950. If that final wave extends the normal 1.6x, it would get to the 850 range. If that is the plan, it better get started, as Sy Harding's mid-Nov buy date is not that far away."

Like he says though....it better get started.

CV said...

contrast it with Friday...

Basically - Friday's looked a little like the june 21st you refer to...

Todays effort needs to overcome that...

CV said...

"Like he says though....it better get started"

Please refrain from any test which bring up BEP references or lyrics...

THE MANAGEMENT

karen said...

On Monday 20th September 2010, @mrtopstep said:


reply
from The Wall Street Journal
The organization responsible for dating changes in the U.S. business cycle said the U.S. #recession that started in December 2007 ended in June of last year.

In a statement on its website, the National Bureau of Economic Research said that in determining an end to the downturn, "the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the #economy has returned to operating at normal capacity." As worries persist about the struggling U.S. economy and its future path, the #NBER warned "any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007." $$

McFearless said...

i can deal with that, as long as NKOTB references are ok:

They got....the right stuff, baby.

CV said...

BY THE WAY... To all you FF'ers...

CV is in 3 fantasy football leagues this year...

This far (only into week 2)... CV has already faced ALL the teams that have CHRIS JOHNSON as their feature RB (#1 choice)...

CV is UNDEFEATED against those teams... (in all leagues)

karen said...

smsearsBarrons

why is the market so strong? big e-mini SPX buyers.
half a minute ago via web

karen said...

smsearsBarrons

at 10 am, $3 Billion eminis bot. just after 11 am, another $4 big ones bot. watch spx 1035 for resistance
half a minute ago via web

CV said...

@karen...

"As worries persist about the struggling U.S. economy"...

As stated in my previous post...

THE ECONOMY is thought of as MONEY right now... So as long as you can print money (or credits), there ought to NEVER, technically, be any more recessions...

So that's where Bernanke has it all WRONG...

He thinks THE ECONOMY is money... It's not... It's WEALTH...

The system will come apart when that is acknowledged...

CV said...

WEALTH (in terms of PRODUCTION)...

CV said...

@karen

were at that "10 handle" rule (topstep) - just beyond

CV said...

My POINT (to the FF-ers)...

Is that "going RB, or feature back, with the #1 or #2 pick in a draft doesn't necessarily guarantee a good FF squad"...

karen said...

mrtopstep

$ES_F #futures posted on our IM at [09:24:29 AM]: we are hearing (chatter) that someone bought $3 bil in ESZ on and just after the open

CV said...

In fact...

I think RB's are some of the LEAST reliable players...

They get injured... Like Ryan Grant or Michael Turner...

Or they run into tough matchups (like the Steelers run defense)...

Or... Some "hot potato" (like Arian Foster - or Jahvid Best) is going to steal the week...

CV said...

@karen

do you mean EWZ?

karen said...

cv.. that was a copy and paste.. : )

I-Man said...

@ CV

ESZ, means just the Dec ES contract.

karen said...

spy has a fat gap between 114 and 115 from May.. fat chance we don't fill it IMO..

karen said...

gs very green now ! JJC not far from its 52 week high, too.

AmenRa said...

Vol A/D is 9:1 on the SPX and NYSE, 7:1 on Russell. Final Momo Monday before collapse?

CV said...

keep reminding me of how stupid I was NOT to follow my instincts and buy silver coins this summer...

I-Man said...

"Levitape"

CV said...

"Final Momo Monday before collapse"

I'll say AMEN to that...

karen said...

okay, whatever.. i keep posting that topnotch tweet and it keeps disappearing so i give up!

I-Man said...

I saw it Karen, then it disappeared...

karen said...

well, at least i haven't completely lost my mind.. thanks, I !!

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

What was your issue with latest EWT besides it said nothing new and the section on bitcoin was a waste of time?

I-Man said...

Just a few more ticks lower and I-Man is hopping on the train to crazy town...

Standing on the landing in the rain... hopin to catch a train.

McFearless said...

we could have an intersting day by the close, people love to talk about up monday but we've had 6 gap up monday mornings that turned into reversals to red by the close since the April highs.

either way, given tomorrow is what I'd dub a 'super-astro' day, and the way the market looks now, I suppose you'd have to favor more upside.

karen said...

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of paper and packaging companies slipped Monday following a report that containerboard prices are softening.

The packaging industry had seen demand improve earlier this year after shrinking operations in response to the recession, leading companies in the group to boost prices.

But influential trade publication Pulp & Paper Week reported Friday that some containerboard producers are abandoning plans to boost prices in September amid customer resistance. On top of that, the publication said producers are giving back August's increase through rebates.

Among the biggest decliners in the segment, Temple-Inland Inc. (TIN) was off 10% at $18.03, Packaging Corp. Of America (PKG) fell 9.1% at $22.12 and International Paper Co. (IP) slid 8.2% at $21.54. Shares of all three companies are down year-to-date, and none was immediately available for comment.

karen said...

Like the algos trade? up 1.09/1.01/1.07 %

CV said...

In case I forget...

Happy birthday (this week - I think)... to ben & I-Man

McFearless said...

McHappy,

well, I think you pretty much nailed it, I find the arrogance amazing given the critical juncture the markets are at right now, and the fact that their counts couldn't appear more incorrect at this time, there isn't even 1 chart in this one....not one, and we get two pages about Buffett...come on man!, this comes after the effing Beatles novel which apparently was good enough for two months of updates given that at that time he felt there was no reason to talk about the markets.

in a word, this is

bullshit

For the time being I subscribed to Neely's service so I have somewhere else to monitor against my own counts, I haven't had a similar count to EWI since after the flash crash so I'm not getting much benefit there right now.

I-Man said...

Thx bro! The Big 31 for I-Man on Thursday... Damn that sounds old. (For me anyway :) )

McFearless said...

thanks for the b-day wishes CV

karen said...

Oh, I.. terrible news on the weather here!! today is fully gray, wet and cold !! The sun has been coming out around 2, however.. I got two nice beach hours in yesterday.. i'll post a picture of the weekend surf.. !

McFearless said...

I'll be 30....almost a real grown up.

karen said...

alaidi

Irish PM Cowen speaking in 9 mins.. same time as Obama $USDX $SPY $$

I-Man said...

As long as Fri/Sat are nice down there, I and I satisfied...

Hope there's some nice waves at Trestles this weekend, would love to watch some action.

karen said...

HEARD ON THE STREET: The Incredible Shrinking EFSF
11:50 AM ET 9/20/10 | Dow Jones
By Richard Barley

When the euro-zone announced its rescue package in May, a key number was the headline EUR750 billion amount - a cool $1 trillion at the time. A big chunk of that was EUR440 billion from the newly created European Financial Stability Facility, which has now won its coveted triple-A rating. But in the rating process, it has shrunk.

The EUR440 billion represents guarantee capacity, not lending capacity. First, Greece has to be struck from the list of guarantors, reducing it immediately to EUR428 billion of guarantees. Then, the remaining countries backing the facility have agreed to guarantee 120% of any debt issued by the EFSF, reducing the gross issuance possible to EUR356 billion. This number then needs to be further reduced as any borrower won't provide guarantees.

It gets worse. In order to achieve that triple-A rating when only six of the 15 potential guarantors have triple-A ratings - Germany, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland - the EFSF will keep a chunk of each issuance in cash that won't be passed on to the end borrower.

I-Man said...

And anyways, K, a shitty day there is still probably better than a nice day up here in Rainland...

McFearless said...

not to mention McHappy, it's dumb for Prechter to be doing the "I told you so" stuff in this letter.

Did he call the 08 and 09 markets better than pretty much everyone else?

yeah he did, until about August 09, since then while he's nailed every top, but to act as if he's called all the squiggles well would be a stretch, I might refer to that as a lie.

karen said...

oh, it's getting better all the time! .98/.92/.95%

karen said...

this is total sarcasm, btw: bespokeinvest

Sounds like a real balanced audience in the Obama town hall. $$

karen said...

NicTrades

Cowen Irish PM RT @Konrad_Easby Shit... rumours Cowen might be standing down
1 minute ago via web

karen said...

Monday, September 20th, 2010, 10:57 am
Troubled commercial real estate loans brought down five of the six bank failures reported by the FDIC over the weekend, according Trepp, an analytics firm.

There were six bank closings over the weekend, totaling 126 for the year. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimated the six closings this week to cost the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) a total of $347.6 million.

The three Georgia banks were Bank of Ellijay, First Commerce Community Bank, and Peoples Bank. Regulators also closed Maritime Savings Bank in Wisconsin, Bramble Savings Bank in Ohio, and ISN Bank in New Jersey.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/09/20/commercial-real-estate-problems-lead-to-latest-bank-failures-treppm_content=Twitter

karen said...

anyone watching the town hall meeting on cnbc??

mcHAPPY said...

Yes, I thought the same - not as strongly though! Happy birthday as well. I didn't realize I was 30 until I was over at a co-workers house (he was 44) and we were heading out to a bar after a few drinks. He said to his wife I should be home around 3, his wife replied, "What do you think you're doing trying to keep up with a 30 year old?" I looked around and thought to myself, "Who is the 30 year old?" Then realized it was me. Maybe it was the booze at the time, but I thought it was sad and then funny.

karen said...

30?! the best is yet to come! I promise you, LOL..

CV said...

not watching...

Cv prefers self immolation to watching Obama

mcHAPPY said...

FWIW = I can see an ending diagonal here. But I can also see a few other things. VIX is quietly creeping up this afternoon.

karen said...

hilarious!!

UPDATE: WTO Sees Record Global Trade Growth In 2010
12:17 PM ET 9/20/10 | Dow Jones
GENEVA (AFP)--The World Trade Organization on Monday raised its trade growth forecast for 2010 to 13.5 percent from 10 percent, describing the pace as the fastest-ever annual expansion in global commerce.

"Following faster-than-expected recovery in global trade flows so far in 2010, WTO economists have revised their projection for world trade growth in 2010 upwards to 13.5 percent," said the trade body in a statement.

The forecast growth marks a sharp recovery from a 12.2 percent plunge in world trade in 2009, when exports were hurt by the economic slowdown, and would effectively make up for the ground lost during the crisis.

"This would be the fastest year-on-year expansion of trade ever recorded in a data series going back to 1950," noted the WTO.

"This surge in trade flows provides the means to climb out of this painful economic recession and can help put people back to work," said WTO director-general, Pascal Lamy.

Nic said...

Hello :)
Don't the census results come out this week? There might be some serious information in there.

This video is not a joke:
30,000 People Show Up For Public Housing Help In Atlanta (Police In Riot Gear)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9q36UFzx70

CV said...

@Nic

re: CENSUS...

My bet is that they come out with some kind of tale that they made some mistakes and have to do a RECOUNT...

You know... hire all the people back, to help with the jobs picture...

I-Man said...

Anyone know what time The Emperor gets off the mic?

CV said...

I'm wondering how the hell he manages to get thru a town hall meeting without the help of teleprompters...

Must have a bug in his ear...

McFearless said...

I am short now, both S&P and RUT for a trade.

We'll see how this goes.

karen said...

copper has gone negative and GS upgraded FCX from neutral to buy..

CV said...

$TRAN is hovering around the 61.8% retrace of the April highs...

as CV quietly drums his fingers on the desk...

DL said...

McF @ 12:57

I re-established my short at the high of the day today. (Closed out my earlier short at break-even).

It just seems likely that we get some sort of a pullback (perhaps 4%) before the election.

Leftback said...

European guvvie arbitrage is the trade du jour again:

Irish, Greek and Portuguese Spreads Widen

CV said...

Fed Injects Record $5 Billion Into Stock Market With Today's POMO

Today's POMO is over, and the result is a whopper: Brian Sack has just injected a record for QE Lite $5.2 billion in stock, in order to complete all the elements of today's orchestrated Obama Town Hall meeting, during which the president is now fully expected to announce that he not only managed to end the recession singlehandedly (what an opportune time for the NBER to announce its results), but that stocks are now ripping every single time he appears on TV (same goes for gold, oil, and pretty much everything else: and furthermore, Treasurys are unchanged, refuting all of Mr. Pisani's BS about capital reallocation in process). $5 billion today, add another $6 billion on Wednesday and Friday, lever up 30 times and you have some $300 billion in free buying given to the Primary Dealers so they can ramp the S&P to 1,150 by the end of the month. Job well done Mr. President. Too bad nobody but Wall Street and a few HFT prop desks care about the stock market any more.

McFearless said...

DL,

Well, I'm with you now man, there's enough divergences here for a trade at least near term, I'm not expecting anything huge though at this point, we'll see as we go.

McFearless said...

I'm having some internet issues today, so I don't feel like reposting, but I'd suggesting reading DR's daily today re our food discussion this morning, even if we identify inflation improperly by calling it a rise in prices, the CPI isn't showing any inflation.

Also, these comments were interesting:

"The dramatic improvement in nonfinancial corporate balance sheets has come to a thundering halt. At least the ratio of long-term debt-to-total debt remained at a historic high of 73.8% in Q2, debt/equity ratios rose from 55% to a four-quarter high of 63% and the liquid asset ratio ticked up, to 50.8% from 49.8% . In a nutshell, $229 billion on net was raised in the corporate bond market in Q2, while $208 billion of equity was retired — at annual rates. Moreover, the nonfinancial sector financing gap was positive, at $38 billion — not nearly at danger levels but still a big swing from the third quarter of last year when it was -$104 billion (this is the gap between capital spending and internally-generated funds)"

and

"As an aside, for all the bubble talk, the latest Commitment of Traders report shows there to be an extremely small net speculative long position in the 10-year Treasury note and that there is a still a hefty net short position in the 30-year bond (over 25,000 contracts)"

DL said...

Karen @ 12:57

Some nice-looking waves there… gentle offshore breeze.

Did you take that photo in San Clemente?

karen said...

DL.. right across the street the street from my house.. the swell is fading now. that foto was from Saturday..

I-Man said...

@ Leftback

Yes, Rasta

karen said...

fxp made a new 52 week low today as well..

i'm looking at mxi..lotsa negative divergence there..

McFearless said...

I've always suspected HEHEHE at TBP to in fact be KD his own self, regardless of whether or not it is him....that person gets the comment of the day award here:

"Tell me how the claim of “Recession Over” isn’t the equivalent of GWB standing on his air craft carrier with his “Mission Accomplished” banner?"


my response to him of course is that it's not the equivalent, it's "better than Bush"

bwahahahaha

CV said...

It's still amazing to me how someone like TWSWB,(who unquestionably thinks of himself as intelligent), can simply take the NBER data, put up 5 charts... and say "see look - the recession is over - I've been telling you that all along...

As usual... I'm sure he, (& the Wall St. & Washington liberal "thinksters" who he likes to align himself with) doesn't SEE a recession (or depression) at all...

Certainly not the way 90% of middle America, or those 10% unemployed do...

CV said...

You don't "feel" a recession if it's YOU who belong to the tribe that has stolen everyone's money from them...

McFearless said...

If people are interested:

http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=128015890542670&topic=274

Yahoo! Finance A new CNBC poll out this morning shows President Obama has some major work to do on the economy. Fully 90% of Americans say they are "very" or "somewhat" worried about the economy. That's a higher percentage than when the same question was asked in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis.

Read more here:

http://yhoo.it/cbHsNY

these polls are a riot....define very or somewhat for me and try to tell me it's not a relative term when it comes to peoples "feelings"

CV said...

@McHappy

More triangles?

McFearless said...

the comments reveal what I think all of us are seeing ourselves, an extremely divided country at every level, one that grows more and more angry, frustrated, and afraid, by the day.

McFearless said...

Over the weekend I dubbed the triangle my least favorite shape

CV said...

"define very or somewhat for me and try to tell me it's not a relative term when it comes to peoples "feelings"...

---

OK I'll try...

Obama is VERY, or perhaps only SOMEWHAT "Better than Bush" as a POTUS...

bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

mcHAPPY said...

lol - not today CV, or at least not yet. Today's move was most definitely impulsive. I am hoping it was the start of v of (v) of C or (v) of C in either the minor 2 or B. I am not longer 100% certain on minor 3 beginning - although I am still leaning more towards this than not. I am also still open to the possibility of low 1170's where minor two retraces to the level of the fourth wave of previous degree.

Time will tell. Just like Andy's charts show though, regardless of what is going on a correction is due soon.

McFearless said...

very few people are truly concerned, and even more than that, I doubt most of the American populace understands what to be concerned about.

A bad economy?

pffffft......

how about the collapse of a currency....for starters.

karen said...

how absurd is this? i put 10k dht up for sale and have sold 3 shares in 3 separate takes.. yes. 1 share at a time.. okay, no need to reply as i know how absurd that is..

McFearless said...

but hey, that's sentiment, it's a funny thing the bullish hangover that the vast majority of people have....three weeks ago everyone was "too bearish"

yet mutual funds have an all time record low allocated to cash and speculators remain net short bonds, among a few trillion other examples.....too bearish though.

McFearless said...

Karen,

that has happened to me several times in the last few weeks. I have a new client that just moved an extremely large portfolio of stocks to me to manage and I'm unwinding some of it for him, it's not like it used to be, I'll just put it that way.

I keep seeing a lot of "gut feel" calls out there, perhaps people should take a peek under the hood to see how "healthy" these markets are.

karen said...

it's weird, ben.. it's as if someone was testing to see if my limit sell was real or if i was gonna pull it? i don't know.. just seems bizarre.

DL said...

Karen @ 1:49

Yeah, my stock trades often get broken up. Makes for headaches at tax reporting time.

karen said...

DL.. some years I use Gainskeeper so i can just straight download.. i've actually bot the subscription this year but haven't been transferring my trades over.. : (

McFearless said...

Karen,

yeah, I'm not sure what to think about it

it's happening a lot on the ETF's, and it made me think of that article Nic linked over the weekend, did you read it?

Even orders on BND are getting filled in an odd way the last few months.

karen said...

DL, laughing.. the other day I decided that you and LB were the same person.. then today you both posted at the same time.. it is still possible, however !! I could dbl post myself.. not sure if LB could, tho, as he is hardly computer literate. LOL

karen said...

ben, no.. i didn't see Nic's article.. i'll check her twitter and see if she posted it there.

DL said...

K @ 1:58

You think that's possible? That he and I are the same person?

Interesting theory, now that you mention it.

DL said...

I don't use that weird British spelling that Leftback insists on using.

Leftback said...

Not possible.

karen said...

aapl hit 282 even.. now that wont stick will it?

karen said...

the retailers are discounting like mad.. just got a saks email for 10% off my next on-line order. and every few days.. jcrew offers a 20% off deal and free shipping.. first it was cashmere sweaters.. today it is women's pants and denim..

Anonymous said...

@CV:

"keep reminding me of how stupid I was NOT to follow my instincts and buy silver coins this summer"

Ben scared you with all of his talk about a potential silver short? You were both expecting a pullback?

McFearless said...

Nic's link:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/18/346406/can-an-etf-collapse/

DL said...

"the retailers are discounting like mad"

Yeah, they raise the prices one week, then "discount" them the next.

CV said...

Womens pants... half off...

That's something to get LB's attention!

Anonymous said...

@Karen:

We used to see that a lot on the ECN and it was understood that they were doing a little price discovery.

McFearless said...

"Ben scared you with all of his talk about a potential silver short?"


lol, yeah that must have been it, I scared the guy who's biggest holding is pyhsical gold.

lmao

I highly doubt I have much of an impact at all on anyone's trading around here, and if I do, I'd advise them to do their own work.

but, no doubt, I was stopped out of silver trades four times this year I gave back 1/2 of my gain from last year's silver short position.

karen said...

Ben, thanks.. makes me want to leave the market entirely.. i'm getting there, i think..

karen said...

another 6 shares of my dht got taken.. in 2 sells of 3 each.. rolling my eyes. 9 shares gone @ 4.05 each..

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