Morning Audibles - 9.21.10

Here we go with a new thread, if it becomes "convoluted", I'm sure someone will be along to fix it...


What's "convoluted" to me is that we're on DAY 13 of THE TELETHON...



C'Mon Everybody! Let's Raise Money for Barry's Kids!


- Let's raise the stock market
- Let's raise taxes
- Let's raise hope (now that the "Summer of Hope" was a bust)
- Please Dog - Let's raise our vote count


The Only Part That Mattered In Obama's Telethon


From KD


"Let me direct you to the only question that had value from an investment perspective:



SANTELLI: Mr. President. If I were to ask an investor would he invest in a company that for every dollar it spent it had to borrow 42 cents, I think that investor would think long and hard. Now if you look at the amount of money the government takes in and the amount of spending, those are pretty much the numbers for our government right now.


Does it bother you that 42 percent of our spending is borrowed even understanding that we have to deficit spend under tough times. How long can the U.S. continue to spend in that fashion without potentially hurting our long time financial health.


OBAMA: Well, it bothers me a lot. It bothered me when I was running for office and it bothered me when I arrived and I had a $1.3 trillion deficit wrapped in a bow and waiting for me in the Oval Office.


So, the answer to Rick's question is we've got to do something about it. And we have to do something about it fairly rapidly. The first thing you do is not dig it deeper. That's why this tax debate is important. We can't give $700 billion away to some of America's wealthiest people. We've got to make sure we're responsible for our budget, that's point #1....


The one thing I have to say to the public is that about 60 percent of our budget is entitlements, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. And a lot of the discretion I have is somewhat limited on these programs.


Now part of the reason health-care reform was so important is because the biggest driver of our long term budget deficits is Medicare. If our economy is growing at 2 or 3 or 4 percent, but health care costs are going up 6, or 7 or 8 percent, than the budget will blow up no matter how many cuts I make in other programs..."





Worst Over in Global Poll Pointing to Reduced Market Returns

For you applied logic afficianados, do some math on this algebraic equation...


(a)"Three out of five global investors say the world economy has weathered the financial crisis and has stabilized two years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

(b)Few believe the economy is recovering, with only (c)one in six of those surveyed describing it as expanding, according to a global quarterly poll of 1,408 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. (d) Forty-one percent aren’t convinced the financial situation is stable and say further turbulence is likely."

A+B+C+D = drumroll please - cue Jeopardy music...

“When taken as a whole, the world has stabilized,” says Uzi Zimmerman, a respondent to the Bloomberg Global Poll..."

---

OK... It's probably my CONVOLUTED logic here that doesn't allow me to understand how and why:

- the world has stabilized
- Equity markets have risen 9% in September with no correction, (and 14% in the quarter - which often happens in functioning bull markets)...
- Bloomberg blames the "crisis" on "Lehman"
- Obama blames the crisis on "Bush"
- The solution for all these problems is MORE (growth, taxes, prices, convolution, whatever)

I'm clearly suffering from some form of logic dystrophy so I'm going to need help...













327 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 327 of 327   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

In other "New Jersey lowlife action"...

CV combining "bread & circus" hors d'ouvres here...

Jets WR Edwards arrested on DWI charge in NYC

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AsQFSvyPSPxQKKvlCN5Xn1I5nYcB?slug=ap-jets-edwards-dwi

Nic said...

I was short crude LB but looked like a flag and closed before FOMC. Gambling on central bankers not my favourite thing

CV said...

@Nic

CV is hoping for an UPDIDE BREAK to the announcement...

...to fade

Leftback said...

CV

Took the words right out of my fingers, there...

CV said...

@LB

lol

McFearless said...

Braylon Edwards....ha, he went to Michigan, what do you expect?

You guys know about that Ann Arbor chick right?

I'm with you guys on a market jump, will add to shorts if the market allows it.

CV said...

you can almost count 5 little squiggles down from the last high...

so perhaps there's a chance for a little move up...

As said before... I'd be looking around 114.30-ish SPY...

CV said...

looks like the DOUBLE SECRET headfake - lol

Leftback said...

Ignore the first 15 minute head fake.

The Fed are saying weak economy, deflation, and no intervention.
The toys are going out of the pram sooner or later today.

karen said...

in contrast to the twitter reports i'm getting.. marketwatch claims:

Fed warns of deflation, stands ready to ease further as needed; benchmark rates unchanged
09/21/2010 02:15:47 PM

I-Man said...

QE-easing you softly...

karen said...

that is some spx 10 minute candle..

CV said...

Alrighty then...

Day's action concluded...

CV fades here...

karen said...

likewise the gld cande.. and uup going for new lows..

CV said...

got my 114.30-ish...

karen said...

leaving for airport.. back to see the real results at the close!

I-Man said...

Better to wait...

See if it takes out the 61.8 retrace of the initial spike...

CV said...

now back to fantasy football... :-)

Leftback said...

That was the shake-and-bake HFT to probe for tight stops*....

Now it is GAME ON. LB has joined Mr Shorty for the day.
Hurry !!! The GAME IS AFOOT, Watson..

LB is Stopless, which is almost as good as K being Topless.

I-Man said...

Yall have balls...

CV said...

@I-Man

FWIW... It double topped off the chart that I put in the thread (with the premarket prints)...

arbitrage789 said...

"The Fed is saying weak economy, deflation, and no intervention"

. . . . . . . .

No deflation in the CRB index.

Leftback said...

FHFA house price index. Wed
Existing home sales. Thurs
Durables and new home sales. Fri

Reasons to be Bearish. Part Three...

CV said...

@LB

I'm witcha...

It's not a killer position... Just a little play money...

I hope you're right about revisiting KT...

But assuming this is correct... I'll take a "look see" at 1131 (probably tomorrow AM)... and see where the momentum goes from there...

McFearless said...

can't anyone else laugh at their screen right now and think

wow, look at all the rational actors

lol, you gotta love it

CV said...

@LB

POMO (Wed & Friday)...

FWIW... I agree with what BEN said about POMO...

It follows market momentum...

There4 - tomorrow may be MOMENTUM DOWN (thus no bullish POMO bias)... Friday - perhaps the opposite...

paper napkin analysis at this point...

Leftback said...

LB will take whatever this week brings and then it's back to the long side (actually we are long, this is a hedgie). Since Karen isn't here LB will spare you all any further comments on being long.

CV said...

@McF

I kno right?

McFearless said...

"No deflation in the CRB index"

that's the kind of statement that needs a "since.....XXXX date" at the end of it.

Leftback said...

POMO affects the Treasury market first, then that money trickles into equities. Don't short Ts here. The Fed is buying and MS will be front running for sure.

We can all think about shorting some Ts on Friday.

I-Man said...

Watch bucky

arbitrage789 said...

McF @ 2:29

Yes, one can always pick one's entry points, and get whatever result one wants.

CV said...

Anybody else getting a deja vu August 10th feeling right now?

Leftback said...

C

Stop saying "I kno right?" NOW - it reminds me of a girl who said it and crinkled her nose and grinned at the same time.

Leftback said...

DL

No arguments.

Deflation in the houses we own (not LB) and inflation in the things we need (burgers for Bruce, arugula for Karen).

No food inflation for Farmer Chet.

McFearless said...

DL,

that wasn't really the point but ok.

Leftback said...

They can ramp this to 1150 but that will bring out sellers.

I-Man, there is a high stop set, and a mental stop to execute manually. Just don't want BLANKFIEND seeing my cards, bro.

CV said...

@LB

I kno right?

McFearless said...

speaking of inflation (using prices)

here is one for you CV, I got my trash bill the other day, it's a quarterly, in went up almost $12 from the last one!

not a huge dollar amount but that's a huge % increase, so there you go.

Leftback said...

$%#@!*&!@!

CV said...

"No food inflation for Farmer Chet"

Food is FREE for CV...

I don't even have to buy seeds anymore because I harvest them from the previous crop...

Leftback said...

Bastards are looking over here and thinking about a ramp job.

C'mon, COLD STEEL... you got NUTHIN...

Leftback said...

Look at the yen... JPY strength isn't usually bullish.
Can't see this going very far.

McFearless said...

I know virtually nobody agrees with this but it's so obvious on days like this the Fed has control of nothing, it's just a bunch of wild animals, the Fed mentions deflation and everyone bids things up and trashes the dollar because the fed will QE

the fed has been QE-ing for well over a year, yet here they are talking about deflation still, people seem to be getting control and perception confused.

CV said...

@mcf

"so there you go"...

---

Got no money, and you got no car, and you got no WOMAN...

and there you are...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy4FXhkm6Nw&ob=av3e

Nic said...

FML
The fed must have said something I missed ...

McFearless said...

doubtful Nic, the Fed hasn't said anything "new" in 2 years, and anyone that wants to know the next steps need only read BB's Deflation, making sure It doesn't happen talk.

Leftback said...

Yen soaring, oil and yields falling.
Euro catching a bid and equities and gold going bananas.

Someone is wrong. I am guessing it's not crude.
A brave man might short gold here. That man would not be me.

CV said...

@Cold Steel

I have one thing to say to you...

AND I'M MIGHTY HAPPY ABOUT THIS...

CV has GOLD STEEL... So the more you apply - the better I do...

Thanks for playing - Have a nice day!

CV said...

@Amen

after all the fuss... looks like just a run of the mill SPINNING TOP DOJI...

Nic said...

2nd limit up day in Lumber.
BUILD MORE HOUSES!

CV said...

Makes me want to run wild in Pamplona... lol

Leftback said...

PRINT MORE NEWSPAPERS !

CV said...

@Nic

Good thing I bought all that spare lumber last week to do an addition (and some repairs) to the decking at the farm...

Leftback said...

Last hurrah for Treasuries coming up this week.

Sharpen your knives for those fat bond funds (TLT, AGG, LQD), because they are going to get shredded next week, or at the October jobs report.

Johnny Retail said...

BRIAN.... it's not going up any more..
Make it go up, BRIAN. PLEASE....

Brian the Broker said...

TAWNY.... line 3....

Brian the Broker's Shapely Assistant Tawny said...

Helloooo, JOHN....

Leftback said...

Wow. Look at those bonds get bid.

Did I or did I not tell you DO NOT SHORT Ts this week...?

McFearless said...

DX candle

ouch

CV said...

S&P In Gold Down After FOMC Announcement, As More Capital Rushes To Precious Metals Than To Stocks

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-gold-down-after-fomc-announcement-more-capital-goes-precious-metals-stocks-post-fomc

Leftback said...

The last run of Treasuries were underwater and they have just gone green. The B/Ds need to make some coin, now watch for bearish news....

Leftback said...

Can't wait to sell some more AGG....

Leftback said...

LQD +0.72% - I am laughing all the way to the sell button...

Leftback said...

BRIAN !!!
BRIAN !!
BRIAN !

Brian...?

Click.

McFearless said...

ok, here's one thing I'll throw out there that dashes Prechter's outlook,

if you priced the DOW or the S&P in gold from 00-early 09 a DEPRESSION was beyond evident, we're talking 90% decline when charted that way....I think one would have to be skeptical at this point of that kind of nominal outcome, possible like every other outcome, though it looks less probable every day.

McFearless said...

so left, if you wanted to do a quick trade, which bond would you play calls on? TLT?

Leftback said...

Where's Wes?
Mini-CLAVADISTA d'ORO next week? Maybe $50?

CV said...

When do PM options expire?

Leftback said...

"which bond would you play calls on? TLT?"

Sell calls later in the week on dogshit econ data .... too late to buy.
Those calls probably just jumped.

Leftback said...

When do PM options expire?

Nic would know that one.

Jennifer said...

When you have a few minutes to enjoy some hypocrisy...

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-september-20-2010/working-stiffed

McFearless said...

I think it depends, look at some of the near term OTM calls on TLT, some are actually geting rocked today, there could be a small lottery ticket there if someone had some money they could part ways with if it went bust.

Leftback said...

BUCKY made a nice bounce between the APR and AUG lows on DXY.
That level just above 80 looks like a firm support.

EURUSD.. 1.3250? WTF are you doing up here?
The slope of hope for EURUSD looks GREECEY here.

Leftback said...

Sorry Ben, I don't monitor the options prices on a daily basis. I guess the following month calls just got hot at the expense of the front month?

Leftback said...

2.59% on the 10-year... KAREN must be getting excited to see a 2.50% again. That was another great call, the KB on the 10 year yield.

Leftback said...

It looks quiet but there is a lot happening in this market today.....

Bond Report will be delayed by factors beyond our control.
Hope to get it out about 5.45 or so.

Leftback said...

The bugs want to kiss $1300/oz almost as bad as...

Well, you know...

Nic said...

There are some seriously obnoxious bulls on twitter that make Cognos look really sweet.
I don't mind people thinking stocks will go up (I do too) but I don't know anyone who thinks it is because of growth, just because the Fed is backstopping. So this "whoop whoop bears, eat shit and die" nonsense is really grating :(

McFearless said...

Lefty,

the options pits have been strange business all around for a couple months now, we see a total lack of fear in the VIX but if you comb put option premiums there is still fear, the prices dont' indicate hedges only, there are peole that are afraid of something, maybe they think if BB shaves his beard he'll lose all his power, I think we should get delilah on line 1 for him.

bob said...

EURJPY near double top.

Faded the EURUSD rally, see how that turns out. The movement, especially an hour after the fed, looked like scared shorts.

CV said...

@Nic

Well at least us guys are sure to get treated to some fotos by RobotTrader...

Altho - Equities are giving up late here...

August 10th anyone? (CV says again)...

Leftback said...

We are about to get a dollop of economic shite in the form of home sales data and durable goods that will serve to pour cold water on Mr Market.

Inwestors will come in after the Fed's POMO and after the B/D sharpies and scoop up that last lot of Ts - the TLT will carve out a nice right shoulder as naive bond inwestors resume buying.

When the October jobs number hits +50K or even +100K, dollar bears and Treasury bulls will never know what hit them.

CV said...

@bob

Yeah... scared shorts & (frustrated & bored ones)...

PRESENT company NOT included...

Leftback said...

EUR is a piece of crap. LB tried to pay for the hotel in Paris in yen and the frogs turned up their noses. Tools....

Lord John said...

Leftback,
I'm just catching up on the posts now, I caught the Ian Dury reference, very nice!

Leftback said...

Did anyone get the Sheryl Crow reference?

LB isn't much of a bear these days, but this is very bearish price action.

CV said...

The only think I know about Sheryl Crow is that she looks like my sister...

Lance Armstrong said...

Can I get her number, dude?

karen said...

I'm back!! catching up.. poor dollar but doesn't seem to be affecting my oil short..

CV said...

married... with twins...

arbitrage789 said...

Karen,

Leftback says that sometimes he goes stopless.

What about you?

AmenRa said...

Did someone mention Spasticus Autisticus?

karen said...

Oh my! they really got that spx up near 1150.. amazing..

karen said...

I am so stressed my ear is pounding..

karen said...

aapl got to 287.35 ??? insane.. completely insane..

karen said...

and i'm sorry but i thing gld is a ticking timebomb..

karen said...

i see the chatter of summers leaving the white house in a couple months..

karen said...

is 1170 a given now? do I seem nervous? lol

Nic said...

Leftie - I thought this article was good:
The Partial Success and Unintended Consequences of Quantitative Easing http://stock.ly/3c6jy6

And this one:
The Real Reason Behind Japans Intervention http://stock.ly/3pdh58

Leftback said...

Spooz could perhaps trickle up to 1150, gold could go to 1300.
After that, you can flush them both for a while....

Leftback said...

USDJPY looks to be in bear mode again.

I think we retest the USDJPY lows and sell stocks one more time, before we all sell the yen and USTs for ever and ever and ever...

Leftback said...

Watch out for bearish news flow tomorrow and Thursday.
then..

INWESTORS SOLD STOCKS ... ON HOUSING AND THE ECONOMY.

karen said...

smsearsBarrons

So, the Fed buys back debt, and still banks do not lend, companies do not hire.
3 minutes ago via web
Reply Retweet

smsearsBarrons
at the risk of lacking imagination, and insight, what can the Fed really do at this point?

McFearless said...

DL,
3:47
your best post ever

karen said...

potentially ominous candles abound in the nazdaq.. check Qs, amzn, aapl..

arbitrage789 said...

McF @ 4:06

I'm simply interested in learning more about investing techniques.

Leftback said...

No aggregate demand, no hiring, no borrowing, no lending.
Benny needs to do a real helicopter drop for the poor, not the banks.

Leftback said...

DL

Classic, and exquisitely timed.

Nic said...

Ooops Adobe misses too. No idea why for them

Leftback said...

K.,

Nice shoes. We might need a bit more excitement tomorrow...
Got to run to a meeting.

Back with a Bond Wrap later - if I can make it.

CV said...

Just your average everyday RUN OF THE MILL

Spinning top doji... Right Amen?

karen said...

limit up in lumber?! that is absurd..

karen said...

DL.. sorry that was over my head so i didn't reply.. glad the rest of you got it..

72bat said...

lb @ 4:08
obviously, you do not fathom charlie munger's wisdom

as to ideas to stimulate the economy, my kiddoh sent a youtube link of gay marriage protest signs, among which "3 words to save the economy: gay bridal registry"

karen said...

great youtube and great idea, bat!!

karen said...

http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/09/goldman-on-fomc-decision.html

AmenRa said...

Bad Day. Corner will be up later. Lo siento.

Leftback said...

Same here. Trying to get it together now.

karen said...

what kind of a bad day are you fellows having.. my goodness.

Nic said...

that was one n a s t y squeeze after the Fed announcement. I actually thought they must have said something and I didn't hear it.

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 9.21.10

The FOMC statement provided the two things that the Treasury market wanted to hear: the economy remains weak, and yes, indeed, there will be POMOs. In fact there are POMOs scheduled this week, so why not front-run those suckers right now? So they did... and the last run of Treasuries which had been under water, broke the surface.

It was a risk-off day. IG outperformed HY and Ts outperformed everything. There was also a massive flattener, but even 2y USTs reached another record low yield. Even TIPS were bid, and so was gold, which is a clear sign that all that liquidity has to go somewhere.

Corpies: LQD 0.76%; AGG 0.43%; JNK -0.28%; HYG -0.17%;
Govies: TLT 1.39%; IEI 0.49%; TIP 1.28%
Hedgies: TBT -2.72%

We think bearish economic data may lie ahead, and that this move in Treasuries continues for 2-3 days with POMOs dead ahead. We also think this may be the last Hurrah, and that investors should take advantage of this rally in Ts and IG corporates to quietly leave the building, exchanging these instruments with eager arrivistes before turning out the lights on the Treasury market for a few months.

We will be unloading more of our AGG and LQD this week. What we will do with the cash is another question, but we would be buyers of a pull-back in JNK and in equities.

karen said...

well, i was gone for just over an hour and it was a round trip basically.. saw the API supply news, Nic.. that would suit me fine.

Leftback said...

CLAVADISTA d'OLIO ???

wunsacon said...

>> I bet CV used to teach David Coverdale dance lessons...

LOL... But, who was his hairdresser?? ;-)

wunsacon said...

>> When the October jobs number hits +50K or even +100K, dollar bears and Treasury bulls will never know what hit them.

Why would job gains foil dollar bears? Me no understandee.

AmenRa said...

NEW THREAD UP

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