Morning Audibles 8.24.10 - C'Mon Man... Practice?

Posted by CV on Tuesday, August 24, 2010 /
I'm not going to do a full blown C'MON MAN because, frankly, the one on Monday Night Countdown last night was the worst ever... Suzy Kolber was sitting in for Chris Berman, so all I have to say is "Suzy... "C'MON WOMAN"...


But there are some interesting things to report overnight... Let's put up the heat map!



CV warned everyone YESTERDAY about the "Baconater"... See? It can sense fear.


Oh, first... I'll entertain you with the Bloomberg analysis (LB... now they're stealing "our" carefully crafted headlines)...




Stocks, U.S. Futures, Oil Fall on Concern Economies Slowing

Excerpt:
Stocks dropped for a fourth day, U.S. futures slipped and commodities fell while the yen strengthened to a 15-year high against the dollar on concern the economic recovery is dissipating.

The author was later found roaming the streets...

I realize his body of work is highly technical for a lot of "drive by-ers", so let me break that up into smaller McNuggets...

Stocks futures slipped

Which screen is the PORN on?

Bonds rallied.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average entered a bear market... 
For you native New Yorkers (who are doing blow in the Hamptons)... It means this...




I'm not here to tell anybody how to trade this (even though there are abundant hints on previous threads)... It's all just a PROBABILITY MATRIX (as any half baked technical trader would tell you)... The bottom line is... this is a "trading" blog, and many of the traders here do this for a living (managing large accounts for others), or otherwise trade large accounts for themselves...

We may joke around from time to time, but when it comes to making trading profits?

We ain't talkin' about PRACTICE...


Good Luck Today!

305 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 305 of 305   Newer›   Newest»
CV said...

& don't forget the frou frou drinks...

August 24, 2010 at 1:21 PM
karen said...

mrtopstep
RT@clusterstock @thestalwart Yen Slides On Rumors Of Much-Anticipated BoJ Intervention by @thestalwart http://read.bi/dpllp4

mrtopstep
RT@HighFreqTrading $JPM has 5 put/call ($ weighted) -- that is very bearish #options

August 24, 2010 at 1:28 PM
karen said...

PIMCO - Gross:Recognizing the necessity (not desirability) of govt involvement, one big agency should guarantee a majority of mortgage originations.

August 24, 2010 at 1:38 PM
CV said...

ANOTHER NEW CHART IN THREAD

August 24, 2010 at 1:43 PM
McFearless said...

I think some of those statements by Gross are total b.s.

the "necessity" of govt involvment....is that where we are?

yikes

August 24, 2010 at 1:43 PM
CV said...

Bill Gross = Franklin411

August 24, 2010 at 1:45 PM
karen said...

sorry, cv.. i do not accept that uptrend line on new chart.. sloppy!!!

August 24, 2010 at 1:47 PM
karen said...

ufb that crude trades with spx.. or indices.. oh, i forgot, the indices lead. anyway, i'm not complaining, exactly.. just sick to death of the all-one-trade!!

August 24, 2010 at 1:48 PM
karen said...

mrtopstep! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xkqx7vrejLM

August 24, 2010 at 1:48 PM
CV said...

BR... Once again informing the world how much "cash" he's in AFTER 8 out of 11 down days...

---

Note that I am not talking my book: We have been mostly cash since May 5th (as much as 100% then, 50% cash in June). We are now over 80% cash, and are looking for a move down towards 950 on the SPX. So what both of these commentators are saying actually matches both our positioning and our perspectives (as well as this AM’s futures).

August 24, 2010 at 1:50 PM
CV said...

@karen

I'm not saying anything about the chart myself...

Just using as a reference OTHER than 10 min & 60 min...

FOREST - not trees

August 24, 2010 at 1:51 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...

You know CV, the Iverson video about "practice" actually touched me a little. I know you have seen his later tearful need just to continue to play basketball. I really had some pity on this man who failed to realize how much the game meant to him until it was taken from him. Then he became a tragic figure..

August 24, 2010 at 1:51 PM
McFearless said...

today is an appropriate day to re-read DR's answer to the bond bubble op-ed that was recently in the WSJ.

August 24, 2010 at 1:54 PM
karen said...

i want to see 999.

August 24, 2010 at 1:54 PM
CV said...

@karen

Take a look at the DAILY $spx candle which opened today as a gap under the BB's...

August 24, 2010 at 1:55 PM
Mannwich said...

Mr. Hugh Hendry having a solid year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/congratulations-hugh-hendry-achieving-best-macro-hedge-fund-ytd-return

August 24, 2010 at 1:56 PM
McFearless said...

You know what is really funny about that WSJ op-ed, is that Jeremy Siegal tries to compare bonds today to the tech bubble in the late 90's.

Odd considering that's when he wrote his book "stocks for the long run"

so if we are to understand his recent comments he does still believe his book is valid, he just didn't time it well...that's all, and though he couldnt' see the largest stock bubble of all time, he CAN see the one in bonds....and stocks are still cheap, especially relative to bonds now.

come on, this kind of thing doesn't even deserve a response, what's that thing about adults trading in the bond markets, kiddies in equities, or is it "equities in Dallas" ?

August 24, 2010 at 1:58 PM
karen said...

CV, my bbs are set at 20,2 1052.99 is lower one.

August 24, 2010 at 1:58 PM
McFearless said...

hmm, taleb's fund didn't make the list, with his "must have" er, "everyone must have" short treasuries trade

rock on hugh hendry!

August 24, 2010 at 2:01 PM
McFearless said...

C,

what setting are you using on the bb's in your chart?

August 24, 2010 at 2:02 PM
Mannwich said...

I still think lb is really Hugh. ;-)

August 24, 2010 at 2:05 PM
CV said...

@karen

Your 20,2 would be correct then...

But it still pierced today... The only 2,20 day in 2010 that proceeded LOWER was "flash crash"... And even that only lasted one more day...

August 24, 2010 at 2:05 PM
karen said...

no no no.. we skidded along lower band at the end of june! for a week!

August 24, 2010 at 2:09 PM
karen said...

mrtopstep

RT @optionmonster Free Webinar 2day w/ Strategies, Bst Picks Now & Dallas ILAM Prevw http://ping.fm/nNTCp Must sign up by 2 pm CDT for 3 pm

August 24, 2010 at 2:11 PM
CV said...

@karen

Not much hope in arguing with you... & I'm not really ARGUING either... I'm just trying to look at the other side...

I'm not sure where it's going from here... But where it goes - it ought to go far...

1000 is a possibility - so is 1120

Also - on the June slide, were 6 days in from the wave peak... Here - we're 11 days in...

So my guess is that if it capitulates, it would snap right back...

August 24, 2010 at 2:13 PM
McFearless said...

damn, no more vxx sonar report for two weeks. 9/12 is when they return.

August 24, 2010 at 2:13 PM
CV said...

Of course... It could be heading for a MONTHLY CLOSE under 1030 (which would confirm the monthly 3lb reversal from the March '09 lows - April '10 highs)...

August 24, 2010 at 2:16 PM
McFearless said...

so, it was Merrill that came in and bought at today's lows....masters of the universe

August 24, 2010 at 2:16 PM
karen said...

CV.. the reality is we need a retest of 1010.. but we are not living in the real world..

August 24, 2010 at 2:18 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...

..Goldman is tired of Pimco getting all the Pub...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWAIE6qqsoqo

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will probably ease monetary policy further as the U.S. economy weakens, said Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.

“The Fed will eventually move to additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or other unconventional measures,” Hatzius said in a radio interview today with Tom Keene on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” Should the Fed opt for more securities purchases, he said, there is “no point in doing anything less than” $1 trillion.

...Stingpushing 101....

August 24, 2010 at 2:18 PM
karen said...

maybe we need to forget the spx for a bit and look at $wlsh..

August 24, 2010 at 2:19 PM
CV said...

...and when you consider the MONTHLY 3lb aspect, that's why I'm resisting the idea right now that the market is going to roll over just yet...

Why? Because if we capitulate here and print sub 1040, then sub 1010... You'd probably be talking a relief rally afterwards...

The momentum of that would probably carry it back up over 1030 by the end of the month and you lose your confirmation for another month...

I'd rather see that confirmation (close under 1130) come in September or October...

August 24, 2010 at 2:20 PM
karen said...

xrt is still on another planet as well.

August 24, 2010 at 2:21 PM
bob said...

Lots of chatter, building to a steady yell, about BOJ intervention. Market net short USDJPY, could force an algospasm. Watch out.

August 24, 2010 at 2:21 PM
CV said...

Why look at $wlsh?

SPX moves on only 90 stocks...

That's where the PPT is focused...

August 24, 2010 at 2:21 PM
CV said...

@bob

Good point...

ALGOPLASM 101:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/hildebrand/YEN%208.24_0.jpg

August 24, 2010 at 2:22 PM
karen said...

more on huguette clark: The Manhattan district attorney is investigating who controls the finances of Huguette Clark, the reclusive 104-year-old copper heiress with three empty mansions who is living in a New York hospital.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38810137/ns/business-small_business/

August 24, 2010 at 2:23 PM
CV said...

Think the markets are going to fall apart while everyone is in Jackson Hole?

August 24, 2010 at 2:23 PM
karen said...

cv.. the dow has 30 stocks.. for that matter.

i like the $wlsh for a the broad measure it provides. forget it.. : )

August 24, 2010 at 2:25 PM
McFearless said...

Manny,

Hugh Hendry's outlook is decidedly more bearish than LB's japanese style outcome, in fact, very different, for starters:

"There are striking parallels with Japan in the 1920s, when ultimately the whole system collapsed,” said Hendry, 41, whose firm manages $420 million in assets. “China could precipitate a much greater crisis elsewhere in the world.”

August 24, 2010 at 2:26 PM
CV said...

@karen

That's the difference...

You trust the indices... I DON'T

August 24, 2010 at 2:27 PM
Anonymous said...

CV, thinking out loud, but a good time to produce max pain on that would be when the fed is running a large pomo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQRIOKvR2WM

August 24, 2010 at 2:27 PM
karen said...

mrtopstep

EUBIQUITOUS warns [01:16:52 PM]: NOT TO BE SHORT BACK THRU #1054#..I SMELL SOMETHING

August 24, 2010 at 2:27 PM
McFearless said...

for wave charting I almost prefer $wlsh, it's the whole market basically. The DOW is still the best though, while it's only 30 stocks, I'm not sure there is a more widely followed market in the world.

August 24, 2010 at 2:28 PM
McFearless said...

Karen,

2:27, Tim said as much today, kept talking 1067.

August 24, 2010 at 2:29 PM
karen said...

CV at 2:27.. laughing hysterically !! I trust nothing..

August 24, 2010 at 2:31 PM
CV said...

@mcf

I agree 100% with both of you (re: DOW & $wlsh)...

However, I'm talking about something a little different here...

I'm talking that in a delicate moment like this... I'm interested in watching what is most easily gamed...

ai capito?

August 24, 2010 at 2:32 PM
karen said...

mrtopstep
and that an extraordinary meeting may be needed prior to the scheduled Sept 6-7 session. #CURRENCIES


mrtopstep
Nikkei News reports that the BOJ is considering easing as the JPY rises

August 24, 2010 at 2:32 PM
karen said...

let's just get back under 1050.. for crying out loud.. : )

August 24, 2010 at 2:33 PM
karen said...

if all this chat about government.. Japanese, US, Fed doesn't scare people into cash what will ?!

August 24, 2010 at 2:34 PM
karen said...

oh, failed to mention the ECB in my 2:34..

August 24, 2010 at 2:34 PM
CV said...

Attention Planet Earth:

This is an order!

You must stop revolving until karen gets her price on drv...

August 24, 2010 at 2:36 PM
karen said...

how is this for a happy statistic: HousingWire

60% of Delinquent Mortgages Not in Loss Mitigation

http://goo.gl/fb/y3djV #hw

August 24, 2010 at 2:36 PM
bob said...

On BOJ-

Trying to game the intervention scenerio. usdjpy up, stocks up, eurjpy up, audjpy up.

euraud already showing a mild unwind. AUD not doing so hot today. Guessing EURUSD would also get a bid, maybe already priced in.

both boj and fed get what they want. Boj lower yen, fed lower dollar.

I need Nic!!!

Add in a pomo on the 10 and 30y for the fed and lots of liquidity roaming around. Where does it end up short term? Longer term?

August 24, 2010 at 2:43 PM
CV said...

@bob

maybe they're buying CHF instead of eurusd

August 24, 2010 at 2:44 PM
bob said...

I think CHF already used all its bullets, politically. Still watching, but they have to be very careful.

Second thought the only time they MIGHT be able to pull the trigger again would be a coordinated action, which could be shaping up.

August 24, 2010 at 2:47 PM
CV said...

The Jackson Hole Accord...

How does that sound?

August 24, 2010 at 2:50 PM
bob said...

You had better trademark that.

August 24, 2010 at 2:52 PM
CV said...

Reminds me of that motel in "Leaving Las Vegas"

THE WHOLE YEAR INN = THE HOLE YOU'RE IN

August 24, 2010 at 2:59 PM
karen said...

oh brother.. 1055 and an hour to go..

August 24, 2010 at 3:00 PM
CV said...

pins & needles

August 24, 2010 at 3:02 PM
McFearless said...

the idea that liquidity MUST go somewhere is a fallacy...perhaps another post I can provide at some point in the near future along with the supply and demand post.

August 24, 2010 at 3:03 PM
karen said...

ben, no.. take it from cv, there is no arguing with me : )

August 24, 2010 at 3:04 PM
karen said...

uh-oh.. my all important 1056.50 has broken : (

August 24, 2010 at 3:05 PM
karen said...

themosmitsos

SPX we'll test day's lows into close. Expecting slow negative close/slide <1045. █ For fuck's sake USTY10YR consistently printing<2.5% again

August 24, 2010 at 3:06 PM
CV said...

pins & needles

August 24, 2010 at 3:10 PM
karen said...

not aesthetically pleasing, CV! why not an avatar of the full moon?

August 24, 2010 at 3:12 PM
McFearless said...

POMO:

"Shorting on those days has once again become implicitly illegal."

bwahahahahahah

lmao

I can hardly wait for 8/26, hope we get a huge screamer up, we'll hear about how they "told us so"

August 24, 2010 at 3:12 PM
McFearless said...

"why not an avatar of the full moon?"

what that is a picture of could be up for multiple interpretations yes?

August 24, 2010 at 3:13 PM
CV said...

green cheese bitchez!

August 24, 2010 at 3:15 PM
karen said...

another bond fund of interest: EMB

August 24, 2010 at 3:15 PM
karen said...

CV! Santa, aka the UPS man, just brought me a silk organza Dolce & Gabbana blouse.. I kid you not.

August 24, 2010 at 3:22 PM
karen said...

Oil ends at 11-week low, while gasoline hits 8-month low
08/24/2010 03:18:15 PM

August 24, 2010 at 3:23 PM
CV said...

Santa Maria!

August 24, 2010 at 3:26 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2010-08-19-22-00-16

Spike in layoffs feeds fear of faltering recovery

"Ken Simonson, chief economist at the Associated General Contractors of America, said highway contractors began working on stimulus projects as much as a year ago, "and now that pipeline is empty."

Work on commercial projects such as office buildings, malls and hotels is "dead, dead, dead," he added."

..How did he really feel about it?

August 24, 2010 at 3:27 PM
CV said...

@Bruce

Those "shovel ready" projects were shoveling s*** into the wind...

Gotta read the fine print sometimes...

August 24, 2010 at 3:29 PM
Jennifer said...

Nenner is on CNBC right now

August 24, 2010 at 3:31 PM
karen said...

FYI - TOP NOTCHs pivot 1057.20

August 24, 2010 at 3:33 PM
McFearless said...

Jennifer,

maybe you can provide a quick summary when he is done?

he had been calling for one more push into August and I believe a DOW at 5k then by year end.

would like to hear if he's tweaked that at all.

thanks.

August 24, 2010 at 3:38 PM
karen said...

JNK just dropped toward low of day..

August 24, 2010 at 3:46 PM
karen said...

mrtopstep

#futures $ES_F ML been selling spoos since 1055.00 about 600 in last 20 minutes

August 24, 2010 at 3:47 PM
Jennifer said...

Since it was CNBC after all, he was "forced" to offer some longs...he recommended XOM, AMZN, MOS and MON but not until mid Sept at the earliest. He is still in the Dow 5K camp. Thinks XOM will go up big in the long run, but didn't want anyone to go long anything now.

August 24, 2010 at 3:47 PM
karen said...

from briefing.com: Precious metals were the sole advancing sector in the CRB Commodity Index today, as they gained 1.3%. Sept silver rallied for 2.2% to close at $18.38 per ounce, while Dec silver gained 0.3% to finish at $1233.40 per ounce. Both metals were beneficiaries of a flight to safety. Energy was one of the five sectors that finished in negative territory today, all hindered by concerns about the economy.

August 24, 2010 at 3:51 PM
karen said...

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/08/24/commercial-mortgage-default-sends-va-shopping-mall-into-foreclosure

August 24, 2010 at 3:59 PM
CV said...

safety bitchez!

Let me synthesize...

Precious metals were up on THE ECONOMY...

August 24, 2010 at 3:59 PM
karen said...

sold 1/3 of my crude short if anyone cares.

August 24, 2010 at 3:59 PM
McFearless said...

thanks, I agree, MON will be a good trade again...someday.

gotta love that close team, add a little salt on the wound of pomo, son of momo.

August 24, 2010 at 4:01 PM
CV said...

I suppose now 1042 might be on tap for the Johnny hour...

August 24, 2010 at 4:03 PM
karen said...

my blouse is leopard print if anyone cares.

August 24, 2010 at 4:03 PM
CV said...

@karen

It's hard to formulate the words :-)

August 24, 2010 at 4:06 PM
CV said...

Does this mean that 1050 is the "new" KT?

August 24, 2010 at 4:07 PM
karen said...

no, i only have one top.. LOL.. let's just focus on a bottom now..

August 24, 2010 at 4:10 PM
karen said...

who knows what tomorrow will bring.. i hope 1040 at a minimum.. they should just let us go to 1010.. at least it could be a pretend dbl bottom..

August 24, 2010 at 4:12 PM
McFearless said...

RUT almost hit July low today, that's where you are getting the real bang for your buck.

August 24, 2010 at 4:14 PM
McFearless said...

I also thought it was interesting that people were betting on VIX coming down today....from the start we said bulls would buy every dip all the way down the "next time"

this is clearly playing out since the April highs.

August 24, 2010 at 4:16 PM
karen said...

leaving you all with this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/third-hindenburg-omen-confirmation

August 24, 2010 at 4:17 PM
CV said...

Oh the humanity!

August 24, 2010 at 4:22 PM
Nic said...

Hello
Had a full moon incident with a moose last night so didn't get much done today.

Just got the charts up and ...
Indexes closed near session lows, 3rd Hindenburg omen confirmed.

I may have to go and lie down again!

August 24, 2010 at 4:32 PM
Nic said...

Karen
My fib target for crude is 68.50-68.80

August 24, 2010 at 4:36 PM
B22 said...

"Had a full moon incident with a moose last night so didn't get much done today."

oh, do tell more.

August 24, 2010 at 4:37 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

I am sure your blouse is lovely, but LB is so twitterpated lately, we others of the male persuasion are having a hard time getting a compliment in edgewise..

August 24, 2010 at 4:38 PM
Mannwich said...

Funny, no cognos sightings over at TBP in months now. So predictable.

August 24, 2010 at 4:38 PM
72bat said...

manny -
cognos no doubt has closed down his retail business(es) there in minny and retired on the proceeds of his exquisitely timed trades

August 24, 2010 at 4:43 PM
karen said...

thanks, Nic! missing you.. eager to hear about the moose! visited your blog once today but it hadn't been updated.. will check later after some surf and sun.. hopeful for no incidents with sharks, myself.. other than sitings.

August 24, 2010 at 4:59 PM
karen said...

Bruce, thank you.. just a simple blouse, really.. peter pan collar, sleeveless, dble row of precious buttons down the wide placard.. sheer, of course.

Ben, watches, automobiles, clothes.. they can never be too fine! just teasing.. i look like something the cat dragged in 24/7. Nic will visit and vouch for me one day.

August 24, 2010 at 5:20 PM
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