TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles - DOUBLE Head & Shoulders?

Morning Audibles - DOUBLE Head & Shoulders?

You asked with your eyes... You asked with your eyes...

I'm running out of ways to justify (in explanation) why the SPX remains buoyant. The latest (last, perhaps), after yesterdays deat defying aerial show was that it's perhaps was trying to settle what looks to be a DOUBLE HEAD & SHOULDERS pattern.

The left shoulder was 7 days before the HEAD... We have completed 6 days since... So this should be set to resolve itself quickly...

For reference, I drew the "neckline" from the .021 FIBO extension level (1194.18)... It fits very nicely with the wave troughs and otherwise seems to point the next trough in the direction of the next FIBO extension of 1178.33...

It is possible to assume that if 1,178.33 is taken out to the downside, both the neckline AND fibo levels would fall together... This has the potential to trigger some major exits from the market...

291 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 291 Newer› Newest»

CV said...: It's May 4th...

And CV is seeing a 130.40 BID on USD...

Could we get to my 129 "handle" sometime today?; May 4, 2010 at 8:30 AM
CV said...: Eur-USD...sorry; May 4, 2010 at 8:30 AM
mcHAPPY said...: CV

I hope not. I'd like dollar strength to last a few days to a week to knock off 10% or so off the S&P. One thing I've been looking for is the dollar to go down WITH equitities. My thinking is if that happens it will most definitely set up a major downturn in, well, everything.; May 4, 2010 at 8:46 AM
Anonymous said...: Copper keeps going down.
What are the thoughts on Gold here, at 1192 now.

Prashant; May 4, 2010 at 8:54 AM
Anonymous said...: And ya, today or maybe later, that call on 129 turning out to be a damn neat one.

Prashant; May 4, 2010 at 8:55 AM
karen said...: Good Morning! close enuf to 129 for me!; May 4, 2010 at 9:17 AM
CV said...: Cool how that works huh? :-); May 4, 2010 at 9:23 AM
Anonymous said...: Gold and Silver just driving me crazy. Gold should have been taking a breather while Silver catches up. I guess panic buying driving ONLY Gold higher. Would love to see that one do a steep dive. That would scare the hell out of everyone.

Prashant; May 4, 2010 at 9:29 AM
karen said...: celebrated my friends birthday last night.. am a little groggy and made a poor cup of coffee! noticed a baby lizard had crawled in under door to get warm, not happiness for me.; May 4, 2010 at 9:32 AM
spoonman said...: sell them, Lloyd...; May 4, 2010 at 9:33 AM
karen said...: Buy the dip? LOL; May 4, 2010 at 9:34 AM
CV said...: 4 red candles... grrr!; May 4, 2010 at 9:35 AM
CV said...: @karen

Yeah... Buy the dip (at 1,110)...; May 4, 2010 at 9:37 AM
karen said...: ICSC-Goldman reports a softening in retail sales for the May 1 week, down 0.4 percent for a still very healthy adjusted year-on-year pace of plus 4.4 percent. The report continues to call for a full-month April unadjusted year-on-year pace of flat to slightly negative, well down from the report's calendar-inflated spike of 9.0 percent in March. This report has been trending much higher through April than Redbook where the year-on-year pace has been in the mid 2 percent range.

Redbook reports weak retail activity in the May 1 week. The report's year-on-year rate fell to plus 1.7 percent vs. a plus 2.2 percent rate in the prior week for the weakest reading since February. The report pegs month-over-month sales at minus 2.2 percent, below their target for minus 1.9 percent and pointing to weakness for the ex-auto ex-gas reading in the Commerce Department's retail sales report. Redbook said some stores complained of weak traffic and it noted weather and flood effects in the Southeast. This report contrasts with ICSC-Goldman which shows less weakness. Chain-store results on Thursday will settle the issue, setting up expectations for the April retail sales report.

FACTORY ORDERS AT 10.; May 4, 2010 at 9:40 AM
karen said...: Tuesday, May 4th, 2010, 8:16 am
The delinquency rate among commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) topped 8% to yet another historical high in April, according to the latest data from analytics firm Trepp.

The percentage of loans 30+ days delinquent, in foreclosure or real estate owned (REO) status jumped 41 basis points (bps) to an overall 8.02%, from 7.61% in March. The share of loans considered “seriously delinquent” — 60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure or REO status climbed 48bps to its own record-high of 7.14%.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/05/04/commercial-mortgage-delinquency-soars-to-historic-high/; May 4, 2010 at 9:46 AM
karen said...: $xad:$usd finally! the drop we've been waiting for!; May 4, 2010 at 9:48 AM
McFearless said...: Last night EWI had a buying climax chart from Investors Intelligence which would indicate distribution. Buying climax hit a record high, this is something to pay very close attention to, Johnny is buying the stuff the players are dumping off to them.; May 4, 2010 at 9:49 AM
I-Man said...: Be kind to the lizard, Karen...

Morning all...

Was up late scribbling arcane shit on price charts... a bit too tired to even raise an eyebrow on this price action.

Gimme 1175...; May 4, 2010 at 9:51 AM
I-Man said...: Looks like TLT might trip I-Man's buy signal today, Manny...

Way to keep your eye on the prize...; May 4, 2010 at 9:53 AM
karen said...: I- no worries, i gently urged him outside.. but i bet he comes back in : (

So charts up at dread? i will look..; May 4, 2010 at 9:54 AM
McFearless said...: speaking of TLT, did you all see the Chart Rosie had yesterday relating to bonds?

it was interesting, and would imply that TLT is going much higher from here.; May 4, 2010 at 9:54 AM
Mannwich said...: Whoa, what happened this morning? Got up later than normal. TLT running hard.; May 4, 2010 at 9:54 AM
karen said...: I- when considering gdx.. watch $hui for hints as well..; May 4, 2010 at 9:55 AM
CV said...: Everyone groggy this morning...

CV was up all night... I had a new revelations...

I'm going to build an AQUAPONICS system and become a TILAPIA farmer :-)...; May 4, 2010 at 9:58 AM
I-Man said...: What's "$hui"?

As you can see, I was really drawn to the KTZ last night on my SPX charts... I think we make a beeline for that zone before the month's over.; May 4, 2010 at 9:58 AM
CV said...: Actually...

karen gets credit for the idea...

It was that day last week that you were asking me about getting your tomatoes to grow better...

About a day after that, karen, Nic, and myself were all eating fish & rice... (CV's was tilapia)...

So all of a sudden this light bulb goes off in my head... "I should build an AQUAPONICS system"...

I could grow all the Tilapia I want to eat... FRESH... And recycle the fish waste through an AQUAPONICS system to grow the vegetables...

That's it! That's my next project!; May 4, 2010 at 10:02 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

I-Man... You could do that too... Then sell off the extra produce & harvest to fund your trades brah! :-); May 4, 2010 at 10:03 AM
karen said...: why aren't we green on Factory Orders? seemed to go deeper red on that..; May 4, 2010 at 10:06 AM
I-Man said...: Dude... I'm going to have my dirty hands FULL of produce this summer...

So much so, that Mrs I-Man is taking a canning class. (For tomatoes and pickles, and pickled radishes...)

We'll also be chopping, vac sealing, and freezing a grip of spinach. And vac sealing and freezing green beans, edamame(soybeans), and pea's.

I had an epiphany while working in the garden on Saturday...

"What if I ripped out ALL my grass...???"

:); May 4, 2010 at 10:09 AM
McFearless said...: you guys are making me hungry.; May 4, 2010 at 10:11 AM
McFearless said...: I'm having some comp issues today, can people see what volume and a/d look like right now?; May 4, 2010 at 10:11 AM
I-Man said...: @ Karen

Aha! The "Gold Bugs Index"...

I didnt even know there was such a thing.; May 4, 2010 at 10:13 AM
karen said...: This is a must read report by Matthew Claassen.

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/thoughts-on-the-primary-trend-matthew-claassen-4020.html; May 4, 2010 at 10:13 AM
McFearless said...: it's a little hard not to try and buy this dip, at least for a short term trade after Johnny Hour.; May 4, 2010 at 10:13 AM
bob said...: a 267 d 2477 69 million spy already; May 4, 2010 at 10:15 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @manny

Sleep in more often please!

I'm a little worried on my FAZ. It is not following through hard as I expected. However, FXP continues to dazzle.; May 4, 2010 at 10:15 AM
karen said...: Remember my post detailing this?? April's data is IN!

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/05/personal-bankruptcy-filings-up-15.html

I originally detailed this at TBP in response to consumer spending..; May 4, 2010 at 10:15 AM
Anonymous said...: I-man-

Where's your buy signal on TLT?; May 4, 2010 at 10:16 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

Before you rip out all of your grass, check your soil base... If it is nutrient poor clay, you'll have to do it a little at a time...

I recommend doing it in 8' X 8' squares...

If you can find a PEAT BOG close to your house, you can fill up your truck with a bunch of 32 gallon trash cans and just go out and shovel the muck into some cans and dump it into the areas you dig out one section at a time...

Save you a HELL OF A LOT OF MONEY (than trying to buy bags of topsoil or PEAT at Home Depot)...

But still... Aquaponics is even BETTER... The fish fertilize your plants faster (& they grow 3x faster)...

Plus, you can eat the fish...; May 4, 2010 at 10:17 AM
I-Man said...: Agreed McF... the same thought was just crossing my mind...

There could be a face ripper setting up, that could take us all the way back to 1197... but thats proabably not the most likely scenario.

I would think at least a little shuffle up to 1188 or so.

Trouble is... sometimes the best moves never retrace.

Thats the kicker.

Probably wont get another wicked bounce until we probe the 55 ema on the daily charts at 1170... but 1150 is calling.; May 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM
CV said...: @McF (10:13)

I hear what you're saying...

But we did print a lower low than last week already...

...and to me, that 1178 fibo extension is beckoning...

You'd probably have to tie it into wave counts...; May 4, 2010 at 10:19 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

1152 is the .055 fibo extension from 1219.8; May 4, 2010 at 10:20 AM
McFearless said...: C, I,

I could see either scenario play out, direction is unclear, so I'm just thinking in terms of very quick trades.; May 4, 2010 at 10:20 AM
I-Man said...: @ Anon 10:16

TLT pyramid swing trade:

Buy signal for initial third of long position set for daily close above 92.50.

Its all mapped out, here:

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/04/tlt-daily-annotation-41610.html; May 4, 2010 at 10:23 AM
McFearless said...: re my 10:20, I still lean toward this just being a B wave and not a third wave.....one more high should create the breadth divergence to top things off.; May 4, 2010 at 10:24 AM
McFearless said...: that said, it would be fitting if we already topped, letting basically nobody in short as indicated by a decade low put/call, huge bullish sentiment, buy climaxes reaching a 20 year all time high according to II, etc.; May 4, 2010 at 10:24 AM
CV said...: @McF

Yeah! Screw those losers! :-); May 4, 2010 at 10:29 AM
karen said...: another must read:

How Much Did Lehman CEO Dick Fuld Really Make?
Oliver Budde, former Lehman Brothers associate general counsel, says Fuld

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_19/b4177056214833.htm; May 4, 2010 at 10:31 AM
karen said...: The Beer Indicator; May 4, 2010 at 10:35 AM
I-Man said...: @ C

I use kelp meal, greensand, and seabird guano in some of my more complex soil-less mixes... but those mixes are reserved for special flowers. I also use alot of fish fertilizer on almost all my crops.

All that stuff gets worked back in to my beds via compost at some point.

Luckily, our native soil here is top notch... some of the best on the continent... The Willamette Valley.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willamette_Valley

Our first four 4x10 raised beds were filled with mostly native soil, perlite, and recycled sunshine #4 mix from a medical operation. All those beds were hit with organic bark and steer and chicken manure last fall, and seem to be doing great thus far.

My new patches I dug this year I'm going all native to see what happens. Thats potato and corn. The corn will get a top layer of worm castings, though.

I'm interested to see how the straight native dirt performs. Should do great. My neighbor is 95 and has been working the same garden for over 50 years, never fertilized once, just adds all his leaves and grass clippings back in to the beds each fall. He's a stud.

My dream is to be able to trade for a living, and spend most of my time farming. I'd love to be sitting in a rocking chair in a pair of overalls at the corner of a country road somewhere selling corn and watermelons in my old age. Hence, the proverbial, dreadneck.; May 4, 2010 at 10:36 AM
Mannwich said...: Yikes. DOW getting smoked here. Down 210. Isn't this kind of day to day volatility and bull-bear battle one sign of a top being estblished?; May 4, 2010 at 10:37 AM
Leftback said...: Guys, I love TLT, as you know, but watch out for the ADP tomorrow and a possible +250K NFP on Friday due to census hiring. That could be a face ripper for equity shorts and Treasury longs. One last thing:

AVOID THE SHORT END. ESPECIALLY 1-3 Y !

I will be happy to be wrong but I am going to hedge into the close.; May 4, 2010 at 10:38 AM
I-Man said...: From Karen's link to the Kid's blog:

"consumers don't buy "3.8% less beer" if things are getting better."

Amen to that!!! Keep it simple...; May 4, 2010 at 10:39 AM
McFearless said...: support is getting broken, dan has new charts of the mini's for review.; May 4, 2010 at 10:40 AM
Mannwich said...: @lb: Might that number already be priced in though? Might the market yawn at it?; May 4, 2010 at 10:41 AM
I-Man said...: Financials actually hanging kind of tough here...

I would like to see XLF down over 3.5% today.; May 4, 2010 at 10:41 AM
McFearless said...: I'm tempted to take some FXP off, but inspired by C's Let it Ride video's. :); May 4, 2010 at 10:44 AM
I-Man said...: Tech is really getting wrecked...

Love it!; May 4, 2010 at 10:44 AM
I-Man said...: I feel like a DB saying this, but UNG is looking pretty appealing down here...; May 4, 2010 at 10:45 AM
McFearless said...: I-man,

I've determined I'd never ever trade UNG. I think AT had it right on this thing.; May 4, 2010 at 10:48 AM
I-Man said...: LQD is too...; May 4, 2010 at 10:49 AM
I-Man said...: Ben,
I dont think anything could ever make me feel dirtier than say FAZ or SRS. Those, I will NEVER trade again.

UNG looks like diet coke compared to those.

That said, SPXU is kinda dirty too... :); May 4, 2010 at 10:51 AM
CV said...: @McF

It gapped right down under the 1178 FIBO extension...

We're going to .09 before all is said & done dude...

1110 city (within 21 days from 1219.8)...; May 4, 2010 at 10:51 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @Ben

don't trade oil either.; May 4, 2010 at 10:52 AM
DL said...: SPX down 25. Nice.; May 4, 2010 at 10:54 AM
I-Man said...: You short any mini's DL?; May 4, 2010 at 10:55 AM
I-Man said...: Andy's puts must be high flyin today...; May 4, 2010 at 10:56 AM
DL said...: I-Man @ 11:55

No, I was sleeping instead.; May 4, 2010 at 10:57 AM
DL said...: Erin Burnett just said that BP is up, and that "the glass is half full". Back to her old ways.; May 4, 2010 at 11:00 AM
McFearless said...: oh man, I left a ton on the table with those CAT puts. I should be slapped for that one.; May 4, 2010 at 11:02 AM
DL said...: McF

Every one of us has lots of "I left money on the table" stories, I'm sure.; May 4, 2010 at 11:03 AM
I-Man said...: I'm thinking about sneaking a buy limit on GDX in around 47...; May 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM
spoonman said...: DL and mcHappy - looks like you were both right on friday. I wound up buying the puts back yesterday, which I am pretty pleased about. Better lucky than good, etc, etc.; May 4, 2010 at 11:05 AM
McFearless said...: of course DL, but that set up was clean and I wimped out, 300% later.; May 4, 2010 at 11:06 AM
DL said...: CV @ 11:51

I hope you're right about seeing 1110 soon.

Too much "pussy footing around" lately by the major indexes.; May 4, 2010 at 11:06 AM
spoonman said...: Good grief, spoos down 30 pts - are we going to 1110 today?; May 4, 2010 at 11:07 AM
McFearless said...: hey look at the news move this market!

March factory orders up surprising 1.3 percent (AP) Merck 1Q sales rise but profit fall on charges (AP) Stocks slide on renewed Greece debt concerns (AP) Pending home sales rise 5.3 percent in March (AP) Pfizer profit slides on charges for Wyeth purchase (AP) CVS Caremark 1Q profit rises 4.5 percent (AP)

er, wait a minute.....; May 4, 2010 at 11:07 AM
McFearless said...: on day's like today I like to trot out that the huge head and shoulders on the S&P starting in 2000 implies a negative price....lol.; May 4, 2010 at 11:08 AM
Mannwich said...: All baked in the cake by now, ben.; May 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM
Mannwich said...: Still don't think this is THE top. Probably a correction though.; May 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM
McFearless said...: "All baked in the cake by now, ben"

????

what do you mean?; May 4, 2010 at 11:13 AM
Mannwich said...: @ben: I'm just theorizing that those numbers you quoted were already priced into the market. That's all. Maybe I'm wrong though. I don't use magic charts after all to instruct my views. ;-); May 4, 2010 at 11:15 AM
bob said...: FWIW, I think the low on EUR is in for the day. All carry currency showing similar rebound/bottom.; May 4, 2010 at 11:17 AM
spoonman said...: Manny,
\snarkon If there is anything we know, it is that markets are efficient and therefore everything is always baked into the scrumptious, indulgent, delicious cake that is modern capitalism, where asset prices always go up and everybody is a winner.\snarkoff; May 4, 2010 at 11:17 AM
Mannwich said...: @spoonie: We had to get a correction sooner or later, right? I mean the market has basically gone up ~70% since last March. At some point, the pool of greater fools runs dry.; May 4, 2010 at 11:19 AM
Mannwich said...: gone STRAIGHT up.; May 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM
Mannwich said...: Where's ahab been lately?; May 4, 2010 at 11:21 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @spoon

Congrats. And yes, I'd take lucky over good any day!

@Ben

"that said, it would be fitting if we already topped, letting basically nobody in short as indicated by a decade low put/call, huge bullish sentiment, buy climaxes reaching a 20 year all time high according to II, etc."

If it is the top I'm in all short although I too expect to make or test the highs but not before a hopefully healthy correction here. I'm contemplating selling half my FAZ (small profit) to pick up some TYP or TZA. TZA is looking ripe.; May 4, 2010 at 11:23 AM
McFearless said...: lol, alright, for some reason I was lining up that comment with the H&S comment I made, little slow today.....; May 4, 2010 at 11:24 AM
Mannwich said...: I'm just messing with everyone-FYI. I'd be happy to be wrong here too about being close to the top sitting hiding out in TLT. Would love for that to run higher, obviously.; May 4, 2010 at 11:25 AM
McFearless said...: ahab's making loans dude, recovery is in full swing, haven't you heard.; May 4, 2010 at 11:25 AM
Mannwich said...: And for the record, I DO glance at the charts. They do at least partially instruct me views. I maybe just put as much weight in them as some here do.; May 4, 2010 at 11:26 AM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

fwiw, before you go dumping shorts, take a look at put call today, nobody believes we are going down for real right now. Complacency rules all right now.

good luck; May 4, 2010 at 11:26 AM
Mannwich said...: @ben: He is? Even now? I'm guessing he may have a quiet summer on that front though now the tax credit has gone away. Who knows though?; May 4, 2010 at 11:27 AM
Mannwich said...: @ben: That's why I'm hanging onto my small FXP holding. It's pretty small though, so I don't mind if it pulls back a bit. Would probably just add more.; May 4, 2010 at 11:27 AM
McFearless said...: just playin manny, ahab's been around, he has 4 or 5 names he posts under I think.

I was over at TBP reading comments over the weekend, he's def. been grilling BR lately. Sort of surprised he's not getting the boot over there after some of those comments.; May 4, 2010 at 11:28 AM
McFearless said...: I won't really attempt counting waves on stocks very often but the AMZN chart appears to be impulsing down at quick glance. We discussed this one last week here, anyone charting it?; May 4, 2010 at 11:30 AM
Mannwich said...: Agreed ben. He's really been poking BR with a stick lately. I think that reflects well on BR to allow it though. Ahab's been a loyal reader/poster over there for years now (as have many of us), so he should get more latitude, I think.; May 4, 2010 at 11:31 AM
CV said...: Can CV get some "love" for CALLING FXE with a "129" handle to hit on May 4th way back in mid-February?; May 4, 2010 at 11:39 AM
CV said...: Maenwhile...(FXE)

Goldman analyst got "stopped out" THRICE and a Citi analyst got stopped out once...; May 4, 2010 at 11:41 AM
bob said...: Just looked up fxe, indeed a 129...Very good call.

1.29 on EURUSD looks like it may take a while longer....; May 4, 2010 at 11:42 AM
McFearless said...: C,

horse races and currencies, a jack of all trades...and perhaps a master of several.; May 4, 2010 at 11:44 AM
Mannwich said...: @cv: Nice work. How low do you think that one goes?; May 4, 2010 at 11:48 AM
Mannwich said...: Credit Agricole: "Sell everything if the dollar keeps rallying"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/credit-agricole-sell-everything-if-dollar-keeps-rallying; May 4, 2010 at 11:50 AM
AmenRa said...: SPX stopped before crossing trendline (3/09-2/10).
S&P Vol A/D 0.06
NYSE Vol A/D 0.08

*trendline around 1167-1169 and weekly 3LB rev 1166.59; May 4, 2010 at 12:01 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Good call CV. 1.29 on the EUR:USD by the end of hte week?; May 4, 2010 at 12:02 PM
karen said...: CV, Would you refresh my memory on how you divined the exact date of 129?? LOVE YOU, btw.; May 4, 2010 at 12:02 PM
AmenRa said...: ...are CNBC teleprompt readers drinking on the set yet?; May 4, 2010 at 12:05 PM
I-Man said...: All praises to Jah, CV...; May 4, 2010 at 12:09 PM
I-Man said...: AM has a great post up today...

Here's a clip:

"For example, shouldn't the SEC investigate this?

Huffington Post (March 2004 FOMC Minutes): 'As top Federal Reserve officials debated whether there was a housing bubble and what to do about it, then-Chairman Alan Greenspan argued that the dissent should be kept secret so that the Fed wouldn't lose control of the debate to people less well-informed than themselves. "We run the risk, by laying out the pros and cons of a particular argument, of inducing people to join in on the debate, and in this regard it is possible to lose control of a process that only we fully understand," Greenspan said, according to the transcripts of a March 2004 meeting…'"

Wouldnt want the Fed losing control now would we???

Heaven forbid...; May 4, 2010 at 12:11 PM
McFearless said...: I love all the johnny come lately's with the dollar.....; May 4, 2010 at 12:11 PM
karen said...: in the ufb category:
According to the Congressional Oversight Panel, the US government spent $17.2bn in support of GMAC and owns a 56.3% stake in the company, as of February 2010. In December 2009, the Congressional Budget Office warned that US taxpayers may lose as much as $10bn of that investment.

Ron Bloom, a senior advisor to the Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner, told a COP panel late last week that an IPO may be necessary to help repay the government. Such an event, though, will not likely take place in the coming months.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/05/03/as-gmac-weighs-ipo-invesco-mortgage-capital-closes-public-offering/; May 4, 2010 at 12:12 PM
bob said...: Look up the holdings of JNK, Lots of GMAC.; May 4, 2010 at 12:14 PM
DL said...: Mannwich @ 11:26

“And for the record, I DO glance at the charts. They do at least partially instruct my views”

* * * * * * * * * *

So you’re a closet technical analyst, after all.; May 4, 2010 at 12:15 PM
I-Man said...: This clip is just spot on! :

"Actually the Goldie fracas is entirely more discomfiting than a simple plutocratic sacrifice to the hamster-wheeled populace, it is a small glimpse behind a curtain exposing a conspiracy of silence and an assemblage of tribes and machinations that frankly your humble blogger tries his best to not stare too hard at. Its' too damn frustrating, best to just raise your kids with love and kindness than become embittered by the revelations that the truths one holds to be most dear are lies told to you by liars."

Long love and kindness.; May 4, 2010 at 12:15 PM
DL said...: Karen @ 12:12

Yes, but GM paid off its "loans".

We should all rejoice.; May 4, 2010 at 12:16 PM
karen said...: amzn has lost 20 points in 2 weeks..; May 4, 2010 at 12:19 PM
Mannwich said...: @DL: Perhaps so. I've been periodically checking I-Man's TLT chart in particular.; May 4, 2010 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: as for these worthless IPOs and secondaries being allowed into the market.. wasn't the SEC supposed to protect us from that?!; May 4, 2010 at 12:23 PM
AmenRa said...: Was the fact that SPX/Gold hitting 1:1 scaring the CB's again?; May 4, 2010 at 12:24 PM
AmenRa said...: Uh oh spoke too soon. Trendline & reversal coming into view.; May 4, 2010 at 12:25 PM
Mannwich said...: Yikes. Dow inching closer to 300 down.; May 4, 2010 at 12:25 PM
I-Man said...: Atta boy Manny!

Pretty soon you'll be carting around rulers, sharpies, and price charts.; May 4, 2010 at 12:26 PM
karen said...: i got my sub 1170!!!; May 4, 2010 at 12:26 PM
Mannwich said...: @karen: In theory, yes. In reality, no.; May 4, 2010 at 12:26 PM
I-Man said...: WTF is bidding financials???; May 4, 2010 at 12:27 PM
Mannwich said...: @I-Man: You never know. Anything could happen!; May 4, 2010 at 12:27 PM
McFearless said...: "WTF is bidding financials???"

douce Bove

@Manny,

did you see the chart Rosie had yesterday, re TLT?; May 4, 2010 at 12:38 PM
McFearless said...: I mean Douche Bove.

What a sh**ty joke.; May 4, 2010 at 12:38 PM
DL said...: McFearless,

You're offending a lot of sensitive m****r f****rs.; May 4, 2010 at 12:41 PM
Colin said...: Karen,
Those new CRE lows must explain why IYR continues to hold up better than expected. Really starting to try my patience...; May 4, 2010 at 12:41 PM
Mack said...: 3 0f 3?, what comes tomorrow? more pain?

http://principleanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/market-should-enter-wave-iii-of-iii.html; May 4, 2010 at 12:42 PM
Mannwich said...: @ben: I did not. Where can I find that one?; May 4, 2010 at 12:42 PM
Mack said...: or should i say more joy?; May 4, 2010 at 12:42 PM
CV said...: @Manny (11:48)

Low? Euro eventually...

- taked out PAR (1:1 vs. dollar)
- goest to .85 cents on dollar (all time low)
- collapses completely

No time fram on either of those calls just yet

@karen (12:02)

Descending triangle... It was illustrated on the CHART that I put up on that WEEKEND EDITION in February titled "A EURO BOUNCE?"... The chart is in that thread that I wrote (as well as notes & annotations)...

Basically it was when the descending triangle intercepted the UPWARD trendline from years back...

Difference is... Back then I thought the Euro would bounce... Instead, now it think it will bouncde "a little", then completely obliterate that line and go much lower...

Probably have a few months here though (at this point)...; May 4, 2010 at 12:43 PM
Leftback said...: TLT resistance zone overhead: 93.19-93.72

We may enter a range trade here in front of ADP and before the auctions next week, supports around 92 or so.; May 4, 2010 at 12:46 PM
DL said...: I just don’t see why the Greeks would be so much worse off if they were to just default on their long-term debt, and go back to the drachma.

At least then they wouldn’t have the Germans telling them what to do.; May 4, 2010 at 12:47 PM
McFearless said...: Manny,

I think I already deleted it, you can sign up for his stuff for free but I'm not sure if you can get the back issues, it should bode well for your TLT over the next year or so.

@mack,

yeah, 3 of 3 sounds/looks about right, put/call shows right now we still havent' entered any kind of "recognition stage" which is what 3 of 3 is supposed to be all about. My head may explode when we hit the "Prechter Point" and I'll probably also need a big box of Oops I crapped my pants.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5742933797940084418#

anyway, emerging markets right? lol. Was it Brazil or china?; May 4, 2010 at 12:47 PM
Mannwich said...: @DL: They wouldn't be worse off but the banks would be. That's all who matters right now, the world's banks. It isn't about anything or anyone else.; May 4, 2010 at 12:48 PM
Mannwich said...: @ben: Great. I'll check it out. That's why I'm hanging onto it for a while. Will just add more on any big slides.; May 4, 2010 at 12:48 PM
Mannwich said...: @DL: Not just the Germans telling Greece what to do.

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-guess-whos-paying-for-that-greece-bailout-thats-right-you-2010-5; May 4, 2010 at 12:49 PM
mcHAPPY said...: @I

Not sure what is bidding them but it is killing me today. This is what I've been waiting for unfortunately I bet on the wrong horse! Hell, even oil is getting creamed! Contrarian indicator strikes again. Luckily FXP is working out nicely.; May 4, 2010 at 12:49 PM
Mack said...: all of the above. all you can handle. all in EM all the time.

i got the email of whats up with the market today? just laughed..mad at myself for taking profits on fxp and selling srs too soon. oh well, have way too much of zsl so at least im happy today; May 4, 2010 at 12:49 PM
DL said...: Mannwich,

F**K the goddamn banks.

(Pardon my French).; May 4, 2010 at 12:50 PM
Leftback said...: "At least then they wouldn’t have the Germans telling them what to do."

PLUS, they could pay each other silly salaries and then enjoy the delights of high inflation. Followed by a really deep and grinding recession. FUN.

MANNY is right, Merkel rescued DB. Not Greece.; May 4, 2010 at 12:50 PM
CV said...: @DL (12:47)

Their DEBT is denominated in EUROS (not drachmas)... You don't ERASE Euro denominated debt by switching to a currency that's going to get hammered in half overnight... (Unless CV does a run on olive oil)...

& last I checked, the drachma wasn't a reserve currency...; May 4, 2010 at 12:53 PM
DL said...: Probably, in the end, the Greeks will end up stealing everyone else's bailout money, or else the money that's been put into its government bonds, or both.; May 4, 2010 at 12:54 PM
Mannwich said...: My feelings exactly, DL. See, you and I do agree on some things. ;-); May 4, 2010 at 12:55 PM
DL said...: CV @ 12:53

If you're going to default, who cares what currency the debt is demoninated in?; May 4, 2010 at 12:56 PM
Mannwich said...: The whole world is doing everything it can to save all the big banks at any/all costs to the world's Sheeple. That's the bottom line. It's pathetic and disgusting.; May 4, 2010 at 12:56 PM
McFearless said...: I enjoy the 12:50 side of DL.; May 4, 2010 at 1:00 PM
I-Man said...: None of that bailout is for Greece per se... its for the banks that bought their crap paper.; May 4, 2010 at 1:02 PM
CV said...: Anyway... It doesn't appear that the 2004 Olympics helped them so much after all...

Vancouver, you're next...

&McF - You ought to run that idea by your business associate who has been buying stocks the past year on "Rio" hopes... LOL; May 4, 2010 at 1:05 PM
McFearless said...: speaking of DBank....just remember about playing with ETN's during P3. You heard it here....; May 4, 2010 at 1:05 PM
McFearless said...: C,

waste of time, he did the same thing with China, it was why I laughed so hard when I heard him coming up the hall:

"well Brazil will be a good place, they bought the Olympics"; May 4, 2010 at 1:06 PM
DL said...: Well, it seems that they could go ahead and let Greece default. Then the Germans and the French could bring over Hank Paulson to help them set up another TARP for the banks.; May 4, 2010 at 1:07 PM
DL said...: Well, I suppose that today or tomorrow we get a snapback rally to 1188 or so (but I'm not going to play it).; May 4, 2010 at 1:11 PM
Nic said...: Hello! was busy today

They won't let Greece default now ... period. They have been clear they won't tolerate any haircuts or restructuring. No bank must be allowed to fail.
France got taken to the woodshed today because of its massive exposure: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh.html

Chatter in Europe today that Spain is going to jump the gun and ask for IMF help now rather than wait at back of line and then this ugly story too:
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-country-briefings/spains-unemployment-problem/; May 4, 2010 at 1:17 PM
CV said...: @DL

Might as well just wait for 1110...

It'll probably happen either on DAY 13 or DAY 21...; May 4, 2010 at 1:18 PM
karen said...: So much for consumer spending in the world's eighth largest economy.. as CA goes, so goes the nation.

http://www.businessinsider.com/california-april-sales-taxes-weak-2010-5; May 4, 2010 at 1:20 PM
DL said...: CV,

Yeah, I'm inclined to let the correction run its course before making any big bets.; May 4, 2010 at 1:20 PM
Leftback said...: Hi Nic,

What's the action and chart set-up in the Aussie look like (still using AUD:JPY and AUD:USD as our favorite risk metric) ?; May 4, 2010 at 1:22 PM
DL said...: Karen @ 1:20

Maybe we should tell the IMF to use our portion of the money to bail out California, rather than Greece.; May 4, 2010 at 1:24 PM
Leftback said...: Bounce tomorrow after ADP.

Likely bouncers: oil, ERX and TBT.; May 4, 2010 at 1:25 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Denninger is on a roll again today on financial matters.

Does Anyone Remember 1931?

Go ahead, buy the dips!

I could have sworn I've read this entry in one form or another at this sight nearly a hundred times during the last 2 years

Decided to let FAZ ride a bit based on this and probably only a matter of time before the same problems are facing JPM, C, etc.; May 4, 2010 at 1:36 PM
I-Man said...: Tomorrow will say alot Left...

I'm in agreement with deke over at MM... I want to see how the Momo's react to the dip.; May 4, 2010 at 1:36 PM
karen said...: I guess these are tomorrow's buyers:

Tuesday, May 4th, 2010, 12:25 pm
Source: United Press International
Last quarter, more homeowners voluntarily defaulted on their mortgages and chose to walk away from their homes than the total number of mortgages permanently modified to date under the Administration’s year-old Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).

According to new data from the team of researchers at the University of Chicago and Northwestern University that first identified the scope of “strategic default” behavior last year, the number of homeowners willing to default when the value of a mortgage exceeds the value of their house, even if they can afford to pay their mortgage, has dramatically increased compared to just a year ago.; May 4, 2010 at 1:37 PM
Anonymous said...: @C, good 1.29 USD/Euro call. Good as gold.

King Dollar. Better than GOLD. Gold is down today while USD green. USA still rocks!

- From Canada.; May 4, 2010 at 1:40 PM
Larry Kudblow said...: KING DOLLAR baby !!; May 4, 2010 at 1:47 PM
Leftback said...: Karen, those ankles and shins are positively silky.
LB is enraptured.

It's a risk-off day in credit for sure.; May 4, 2010 at 1:48 PM
DL said...: speakin' of Kudlow, he played this youtube video on his show yesterday.

It’s entitled “Let The Market Figure It Out”, and it’s about the free market principles that Kudlow endorses; put to music.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSD4lJmZiak; May 4, 2010 at 1:49 PM
I-Man said...: Watching 1182 for the time being...; May 4, 2010 at 1:50 PM
bob said...: On AUDJPY- Lower high and then big sell off.

Japan is also on holiday today.; May 4, 2010 at 1:53 PM
Nic said...: Lb
I am slow today sorry
The AUD got killed today, worst performing. Was not helped by dovish statement last night from RBA.
AUDJPY & AUDUSD on technical support now, could bounce here.; May 4, 2010 at 1:53 PM
I-Man said...: Ruh-Roh...

Might be setting up a close at new lows...; May 4, 2010 at 2:03 PM
Leftback said...: I-Man,

Enjoyed your gardening posts this morning. After Karen's recent posts, LB bought some MIRACLE-GRO. Didn't realize it was for the vegetables...; May 4, 2010 at 2:05 PM
karen said...: my friend is on her way to italy this evening! she is positively gleeful on the euro!; May 4, 2010 at 2:06 PM
Leftback said...: Thanks for support update, Nic.
Watching those risk proxies right now.; May 4, 2010 at 2:07 PM
Nic said...: MrTopstep thinks we could do this again tomorrow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuPFKl1N0_A; May 4, 2010 at 2:13 PM
Nic said...: Sterling did really badly vs dollar earlier but held up well against everything else. Mostly because of traders frontrunning flow predictions on how much BP will have to pay uncle Sam for clean up. Any positive oil spill news is good for sterling right now.; May 4, 2010 at 2:16 PM
karen said...: visit ilconvento.com i am sick with envy but very excited for my friend..; May 4, 2010 at 2:23 PM
Nic said...: Wow, I am envious too ...; May 4, 2010 at 2:24 PM
DL said...: Seems like the shrimp fisherman who tried to hedge (against lower prices) by using shrimp futures got screwed. First, they'll have to cover their short futures position at a loss, and second, they've got no shrimp to sell.; May 4, 2010 at 2:26 PM
McFearless said...: "King Dollar. Better than GOLD. Gold is down today while USD green. USA still rocks!"

Anon, the dollar isn't up because we rock, be careful....

good luck.; May 4, 2010 at 2:28 PM
Nic said...: For the first time today weekly trend-line support in AUDUSD has broken. AUDJPY still sitting on support but USDJPY well supported because today is bucky's big day.; May 4, 2010 at 2:29 PM
McFearless said...: "my friend is on her way to italy this evening! she is positively gleeful on the euro!"

Karen,

some of my clients just took a wonderful vacation to....of all places.....Greece!

I haven't heard from them yet but I'm guessing it wasnt' what they expected, they came to meet with me 3 days before they left and brought it up and I said...you know what's going on there right now right?

The answer, of course, was no.; May 4, 2010 at 2:30 PM
karen said...: Nic when i find a great twitter i like to follow-up on whom that person is following.. it's all very time consuming, lol.; May 4, 2010 at 2:30 PM
Leftback said...: Hmm... BUCKY RALLY... if it gets out of hand
.... leads to DISORDERLY CARRY TRADE UNWIND

Bring it on!; May 4, 2010 at 2:32 PM
McFearless said...: another count that I think holds some girth enough to consider now is that if this is not the top of P2, and instead this is a B wave, the C wave may not actually reach a new high, or perhaps only creates a marginally higher high.; May 4, 2010 at 2:33 PM
mcHAPPY said...: @ben

I would concur. I think I mentioned it this a couple of days ago - a correction here, followed by a retrace to near or new highs (albeit not by much) would drive a stake through the heart of a few of the few remaining bears and get Johnny fighting to get in the game in a double down on black kind of way. It would drive just about EVERYONE nuts and therefore that is what I think will happen.; May 4, 2010 at 2:38 PM
karen said...: aapl looks like it will fill the 250-255 gap..; May 4, 2010 at 2:38 PM
Anonymous said...: CAD/AUD, CAD/Euro, green. Some of that European and Aussie money hiding in Canada. That's odd. Because if China goes, so does Western Can.; May 4, 2010 at 2:38 PM
McFearless said...: McHappy,

either way, you are playing with fire getting long and strong now, I guess Johnny likes fire though

like Paris says

that's hot.; May 4, 2010 at 2:39 PM
bob said...: CV

You may get your 1.29 handle on EURUSD too. It keeps creeping down.; May 4, 2010 at 2:40 PM
karen said...: do we buy that dip??? and GS is a real buy under 150, right? did we already miss our chance???; May 4, 2010 at 2:44 PM
mcHAPPY said...: @Ben

"either way, you are playing with fire getting long and strong now, I guess Johnny likes fire though"

you know that, I know that, most here know that but Johnny doesn't know a sh*tty chart from his sh*itty arse. SP500 at 1180-1200 after hitting around 1220 and coming back from 1100 would like mighty good. Of course no understanding of retracement or EW or fibo.; May 4, 2010 at 2:45 PM
DL said...: Karen @ 2:44

No one here is arguing for buying the dip, at this point, anyway.; May 4, 2010 at 2:47 PM
McFearless said...: something fun to do:

Own TYP and sing Michael Jackson PYT but replace with your ticker.

:); May 4, 2010 at 2:48 PM
karen said...: $wtic, hit or broke 87 five times in April!!! come on.. the weekly crude chart is just as scary.. what is really interesting on the long term weekly is the 50 and 100 MAs have just kissed.; May 4, 2010 at 2:50 PM
mcHAPPY said...: TZA is mighty tempting. If it stays strong in to the close I will consider buying some around $5.60 on any pullback tomorrow if it gets that low of course. Has anyone seen the count on RUT here? Primary B over for Russell 2000?; May 4, 2010 at 2:51 PM

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