Sunday Evening Post

Good Evening Capitalists,

The S&P 500 seems poised for more downside over the next several weeks. The next several months are historically a poor time to be invested in the stock market. So, why be in it? Maybe we’ll get another repeat of last year’s stella’ performance across the summer and fall, but why bet large against 80 years of historical performance? Maybe the Fed’s Nuclear amount of easing and money will prevent any meaningful correction yet again this summer…

What will be most interesting in the next several weeks is the influence the Euro has on equities. Last year’s tight correlation between the Euro and equities has clearly been smashed. As of the latest Commitment of Traders, large speculators are holding significant short bets in the Euro. People like Dennis Gartman keep pounding away at the Long CAD/Aussie vs. Short Euro cross trade. When folks like him get all “frothed” up on a single trading idea, we’re usually due for some kind of correction, even if only temporary in nature.

I continue to be bearish the S&P 500 futures via 1200 strike puts. Those “worked” last week and I will continue to hold them. A break of 1208 on the June futures would force me out of the trade.

S&P 500 Update 2 May 10

11 comments:

Andy T said...

Weird thing just happened to me: A well dressed middle aged women just knocked on my door to take down my Census information. "It seems you have not filled out your census form yet; I'm here to help you fill out this information."

I guess that's the current US jobs program at work...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

I get the feeling you and I see life a lot alike. That said, I look at this time as a period where the average working stiff is just looking to keep his job. He's worried about being downsized,or that someone in Asia can do what he's been doing for about 1/4 of the labor costs. Or he sees that taxes are about to explode in his particular business. And he may not understand it, but he sees the insidious appeal of socialism creeping into his workaday world, and realizes that his workplace may be changing because of this.

This has always bothered me about "real" Keynesian dogma. The problem, if you want to follow the Keynes blueprint, is that governments were supposed to rebalance themselves in the "good" times. I cannot think of an administration who left office with a smaller budget and smaller government than when they started. And this community organizer has no clue. Government is almost expanding exponentially. But in the end the taxpayer foots the bill, and we are making the younger folks into impoverished indentured servants.

We see Greece imploding because Europe has since WWII been much further on the big government/socialism model than we have. I think we will catch up, and it won't be good as far as innovative capitalism is concerned.

As my children used to say when I had a birthday," Happy birthday, you old fart!"

DL said...

BT @ 7:59

"I cannot think of an administration who left office with a smaller budget and smaller government than when they started"

* * * * * * * * * *

Don't forget that the national debt was eliminated under Andrew Jackson.

Doesn't he deserve any credit?

Andy T said...

I'm clearly "out of step" with BR's new commenters....there's a very populist/socialist tone to the place now. I guess it's all part of the cycle and 'trend.'

The comments on the Charlie Rose/Lloyd Blankfein interview were illuminating in that regard....

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/gs-lloyd-blankfein-on-charlie-rose/comment-page-1/#comment-289974

Anonymous said...

BP on the hook for Gulf of Mexico oil spill cleanup costs: Obama -www.financialpost.com

Bp pulls forms, asking fishermen to sign away rights to sue -company distributes waivers at public swimming pool, locals accuse BP of trying to 'pill the wool over our eyes' - www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/bp-pulls-forms-asking-fishermen-to-sign-away-rights-to-sue/article1554200/

Bruce in Tennessee said...

@DL:

Andrew Jackson, bless his old heart, would probably just not fit into the everyday world we now find ourselves in. What would Andy have said about bailing out TBTF investment banks? Yep....

DL said...

AT @ 8:41

Yeah, a bit of a "lynch mob" mentality over there with respect to the investment bankers.

Sentiment like that in Michigan probably goes a long way towards explaining Carl Levin's behavior at the hearings.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Continental and United to combine.

50 dollar carry-on anyone? Again, our national government doesn't seem to see the problems with decreasing competition anymore. We here at Reardon Metal don't see a problem either...

DL said...

B/T @ 10:01


The airline industry has never been particularly profitable. Some consolidation and reduction of capacity would be in the interests of shareholders over the long run.

AmenRa said...

Well we have the close below 1191.94 (weekly 3LB mid). The question now is whether there is enough bearish sentiment to push it down towards the weekly 3LB reversal at 1166.59.

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

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