A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
SPXBearish long day (opening marubozu). Back below the 1.764 fibo (using low) of 1176.22 (meaning the 1.707 at 1138.21 is next). Midpoint way below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 21 SMA and FAILED. Also it's BELOW the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 (hip hip hooray). Closed above the .0344 fibo (using high) of 1177.84. Held the trendline. New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 1217.28. QE2infinity.
DXYBullish LONG day (correlation regained). Midpoint well above 10 SMA (uptrend). Go Bucky Go Bucky. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 80.51.
VIXBullish long day. The 61.8% fibo ext (support) rules. Tested the 14.6% fibo retrace and passed. Closed above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 16.14.
EURUSDBearish LONG day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again). Closed below previous of 1.3253. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (almost there). Closed back below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3315.
JNKBearish long day (resolved those 4 doji days). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested 55 SMA and failed. Previous high of 40.21 was held with ease. Daily 3LB reversal down with reversal now 40.20.
XLEBearish long day. Tested 55 SMA and passed. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Daily 3LB reversal down with reversal now 60.63.
SLVBearish LONG day. Midpoint now below 10 SMA. Closed back below 21 SMA. 2 days of indecision decided. No daily 3LB changes.
24 comments:
Andy, you lighten up anymore, or hanging on for the ride?
Anonymous said...
I had to take a little more off the table here at 1166.75 on the sp mini futures....
-AT
May 4, 2010 3:05 PM
wow-
what I miss- lol
I found this interesting from Jesse's Cafe- if already posted and discussed- please disregard-
"Why Silver?"
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/05/presidents-working-group-on-markets-why.html
excerpt-
"Is the United States interested in manipulating the price of silver, and therein the supply of silver in the world, and its uses . . . J. P. Morgan has a strategically huge short position in silver, and is using it to 'manage' the price of the market at will. I did not bother to put that into the six postulates because it is a well documented fact, although rendered a bit hazy by official secrecy, bordering on an IQ test. If you fail to see it, try not to use too many sharp or pointed objects.
interesting to see if they "go after" JPM like GS
i guess theater is for the audience anyway...
...especially if you get the wink and nod ahead of time
Alot of mighty fine reads at the 'ville today in the macro section:
http://www.minyanville.com/markets/
Todd Harrison, John Mauldin, Mish... quite a bearpen.
I'm about 60% of Max Short on the SP 500 now....maybe i'm going to miss a major move lower loaded fully short, but I sort of like playing with "house money" and I like to have the "powder" dry.
Also, I simply don't trust the Fed/Tsy.....we're sure to get some kind of weird "headline" that causes a good little blip back.
In re: DXY. Arrgh. This is why I suggested a few weeks to maintain 25-33% long, even though I thought it would pull back to 79. Still think we get a pullback (due to short term excessive bearish sentiment towards the Euro), but at this point I cannot add, nor can I bail on length....just have to sit with it, wishing I had been longer.
O well...it was a good day.
May have to take a stab at Sugar from the long side if it can sport any kind of bullish candlestick in the next few days. That's nearing some nice objectives now....
What a washout....
I suppose Jim Rogers is still long that shit.
Andy T
re: Sugar
The 233 SMA (weekly) is a good place to look for a reversal. It doesn't stay under there for long (looking through the last 10 years). Usually a month or two under the 233 then it reverses course.
Not a peep by Harry Wanger in the blogosphere today...
OMG - I don't know how to play this move now!
1097... what more is there to know C?
EURUSD at new lows again...
1.2947
(Insert sinister laughter.)
all everyone needs to know-
"Cramer’s Buys to Beat Europe’s Bad Debt"- CNBC -
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36942676
@cv: Or nary one from cognos either. Go figure. The bull-trolls get awfully quiet when things don't go their way. I, on the other hand, get louder when things don't go my way. ;-)
good stuff from NC-
"contrary to the Fed’s claims of independence, it has been operating as an extra-legal off balance sheet entity of the Treasury, circumventing normal Constitutionally-stipulated budget processes. And rather than make adjustments in its practices to reflect its enlarged and now overtly political role, the Fed has instead been engaging in cynical, blatant misrepresentation, giving lip service to the idea of greater transparency in pubic, while fighting disclosure tooth and nail."
wow- say it ain't so
interesting chart from a poster at Dan's site:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_OY0Kpjc3VHk/S9PBf897weI/AAAAAAAACSY/z_DxWJc0POU/s1600/D.gif
Bounced at 1.2937 or .0002 above the fibo .1459 (from recent high of 1.5145).
I don't think this is the correct Fibbo to be looking at, but the DXY is at the exact 61.8% of the entire decline right here, right now. At 83.72.
DXY bulls should definitely be prepared for a pullback, if only temporary in nature.
Best, AT.
Good argument for why Lord Blankfiend is a BFL:
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/debate-flares-on-goldmans-role-as-market-maker/?src=twt&twt=nytimesdealbook
Pretty sure 1183 is the bogey for any bounce here, 1185 or a throwover.
Weird how we just gapped through 1200 this morning and didnt even scratch it.
I've been playing with the SPX 15min charts tonight.
Would be kinda swift to see the SPX print 1150... tomorrow, with no bounce... then we could all ride back to 1175 on a snapback to close the week.
Nic, agree, good argument.
Ahab, where have you been!?
Andy! fun to have you around : )
I think those that were late to the table today will be on-time tomorrow morning!
What if it was the Canadian banks crashing the market because the Loonie was at par for a couple of days? :o)
A comment from the post at zerohedge: If It Smells Like a Funding Crisis
by assumptionblindness
on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 15:36
#331438
"What happens to a bubble in a funding crisis?"
Matter meets antimatter.
LMAO
Did everyone go out to celebrate?
Off topic, but can anyone tell me from their experience, about good forex brokers that allow for Online Forex Trading. Thanks.
Prashant
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