AmenRa's Corner

Stick mastery ALWAYS draws an audience...


SPX
Takuri line day (a monster one at that). Tested the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87 but closed higher. Closed below 1151.86 fibo (using high) meaning 1110.02 (fibo .09) is next. That got tested too. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 55 SMA and FAILED. Even tested the 89, 144 and 233 SMA's. Only failed the 89. Now below the weekly 3LB reversal of 1166.59. Trendline what? New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 1183.71. Now trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day (go figure). Midpoint well above 10 SMA (uptrend). Tested the 61.8% retrace and passed. Tested 85.11 (fibo .1459) and failed (retest soon). Go Bucky Go Bucky. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 82.38.



VIX
Bullish LONG day. The 61.8% fibo ext (support) rules. Fear is in the air. Tested all fibo retraces and passed all but the 161.8%.. Closed above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 22.81.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Wants to retest previous high of 1226.40. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1171.30.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day (3rd one in a row). Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 3x). Fibo level of 1.2935 has been decimated. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3189.



JNK
bearish "short" day. Body too short for hammer and lower shadow too short for Takuri (go figure). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested 233 SMA and failed. RISK OFF REPEAT RISK OFF. New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 40.13. Now trending down on the daily 3LB.



30YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Now below the 233 SMA. Next weeks auction is a lock. Bid to cover may hit 10 or greater. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 45.27.



GS
Bearish long day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Shot through previous low of 147.81 and now below 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. CPR is being failing. Coma has been induced. New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 160.24.



AAPL
Takuri line day. Immense fear sent the stock down through all SMA's. Fear cares not for the iPad. Daily 3LB reversal down with reversal now 270.83.



Issues A/D & Volume A/D
Just a quick look at how bad it really was.

160 comments:

AmenRa said...

Took longer than usual. Blogger had problems loading pics.

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
CV said...

Ha!

The MSM is already chalking it up to a computer glitch...

"Don't worry Johnny, keep buying on the way down... Stocks only go down when there's a glitch"

If that's the case (only a glitch), we ought to be back up at 1200 tomorrow, right?

AmenRa said...

CV

Yo no se. But I'll bet the NYSE broke down again and they had to bring the runners back.

Nic said...

Bucky had a bullish short day because of the moves in dollar-yen. (Yen 2nd biggest factor in USD index). The yen had the biggest day, Mrs Watanabe is going to have a shit fit tonight.

Nic said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Nic said...

I am not buying this fat finger so much, there is more to come.
Nikkei futures are down 5.3%

Leftback said...

Just 'cause they printed a chart doesn't mean it happened.

karen said...

AR, thank you for the nice wrap and extra tickers! You get a bonus, too!

I-Man said...

Catch up with yall later after I've had a few IPA's and ripped into some SPX charts...

Its a whole new ball game...

Leftback said...

Things that make you go... hmm

Theresa May, a senior Conservative Party lawmaker, said the exit poll result showed Labour's heaviest losses since 1931

Wes said...

...i need a cigarette

AmenRa said...

Nic

Not a fat finger. After 2008-2009 NO ONE is waiting for a rally. Get me the f7*# out NOW! Johnny called Brian saying "If I'm not out I hope you have life insurance. I'm not going through this again."

AmenRa said...

test

Anonymous said...

@Amen, yes after Johnny saw those markets red during lunch hour and called Brian to unload - that's what happened.

Wes said...

@lb - gordie didn't fair to well with "that woman is just some bigot" comment...

AmenRa said...

There will be no paid programs on CNBC tonight LMAO.

AmenRa said...

test again

Leftback said...

After the next few waterfall declines JOHNNY will need BAWS LIKE WATERMELONS.

Guess what? MACRO matters. Finally.

mcHAPPY said...

I'm not feeling the glee I had thought I would feel. Maybe because I don't think the March '09 low was THE LOW and we have much MUCH further to go. Not a straight line though. I hear Johnny saying say it ain't so.

Leftback said...

First result from BBC, 8.9% swing to the Conservatives.
Hung parliament?

Hmm....

SC said...

Like the story of how a cow kicking over a lantern started the Great Chicago Fire, the fat-finger story will probably turn out to be so much nonsense. But in both instances, the fact that the stories are even plausible points to some fatal underlying vulnerability. If all it takes is one clumsy cow to burn down the city, then the city was a death trap. Likewise, if a fat-finger can trigger a limit-down day, the market is too dangerous for human beings. Regardless of the cause, the damage can't be undone.

RSP, a $2B large S&P EW index ETF that normally moves 1M+ shares a day, had a low print of $0.0001 today. This is what people are talking about when they say ETFs will blow up during a crash. The arbitration model just doesn't work when liquidity evaporates and everyone is running for cover.

I had to laugh when I remembered how Robert Prechter recently got stopped out of his 200% net short call. Didn't the same thing happen to him back in 1987?

AmenRa said...

How come there are no fat finger excuses on major up days?

Leftback said...

Return of capital.... not return on capital.
In a debt deflation, cash and quality bonds are king.

Mannwich said...

Simon Johnson weighs in.

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/05/06/it%e2%80%99s-not-about-greece-any-more/

Is this Credit Anstalt part deux? When will the dominoes reach the shores of the U.S?

mcHAPPY said...

Good question Ra.

Leftback said...

"When will the dominoes reach the shores of the U.S?"

They already did.

mcHAPPY said...

@LB

I have been harping on that point to people. They chuckle and say, "Oh mcHAPPY, you're so cute."

Mannwich said...

@lb: Good point. Will they continue to fall here or do we get a reprieve (brief rally) for a while before resuming their fall?

karen said...

did you all see this? exc went to zero..

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/05/06/four-mega-drops-of-the-flash-crash-sam-adams-goes-flat/

it's not only daily chart but is on 10 min.

so now i'm wondering if any trades were actually made at some of these lows.. even aapl at 199..

mcHAPPY said...

@LB or anyone who knows:

Who can trade after hours?

The reason I ask is becaue I just checked FAZ. Total volume today was 90,000,000 or so. AFter hours trading volume is at nearly 75,000,000.

Is this the algos between GS and JPM having make-up sex?

mcHAPPY said...

I guess this is what Ben meant by you might not get paid:

Sh*tty for a select few

mcHAPPY said...

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Bove is speaking:

"Did you know US banks are heavily exposed to Europe debt woes?" said Bove.

karen said...

from etrade/briefing.com: Though there was talk that a program or system error led to the cascade of selling, media reports indicated that the major exchanges said there was now error on their part.

karen said...

Happy, anyone with access can trade AH.. e*trade offers it.

karen said...

i really have this sick, sick feeling.. after a day like today, you don't want to be long or short. at least, that is how i feel.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Like I said earlier there was no fat finger. No one wants to live through 2008 again. They saw what was happening and decided to get the hell out of dodge.

mcHAPPY said...

Cramer’s bottom line is this: Investors don’t need to constantly obsess about Europe’s debt problems. They’re better off using these declines to buy stocks with great long-term secular growth stores or those that just delivered the best earnings beats of the season.

Because “until Europe resolves itself, however it resolves itself,” Cramer said, “we want boring.”

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks, Karen. I just logged in to what I use (Questrade) and it appears I could buy or sell. Not going to try though.

karen said...

oh brother! "SEC, CFTC reviewing 'unsual trading activity' after Wall Street plunge" marketwatch..

mcHAPPY said...

@Karen

That was my link at 6:57. Unreal, isn't it? No one would ever bat an eye on a 995 point UP day. As Ra said, no one would blame a fat finger on an UP day. I still can't believe they are telling people to go out and buy. I hope Jon Stewart shows NO mercy on Cramer, make him weep.

AmenRa said...

For the record computers don't make errors...humans do.

call me ahab said...

WOW_

What a DAY!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA(-:!!!!!

BR- that dude is gettin' all the kudos today-

. . .and the trading error . . . that's a good one . . .

it's all right folks just a little error- nothing to fear-

right!!!!

mcHAPPY said...

Denninger gives his views on today.

WOrth the click

mcHAPPY said...

I'll try again.

Take two

CV said...

@ahab

BR deserves kudos... but keep things in perspective...

Most of the people here have been A LOT more timely on calls than BR has...

And think of it this way... This is going to force BR to CHANGE all his 'underlying'... Meaning: most of us here knew this was a P2 all along... BR still hasn't come to terms with that yet...

If you asked him right now, I doubt he'd be on board with eventually taking out the March '09 lows...

BR is a Johnny come lately... (who blogs)...

What I AM impressed with though is that he managed to get a large position (as he must manage) into cash...

IOW - It's easy for a punk like me to play short and hit calls within a couple of ticks... But it's hard to maneuver the Titanic...

He DOES get credit for that...

Nic said...

Accenture went to 1 cent too.
It goes there if there are no bids (the algo is turned off) ... not an error.
Price only counts if anything traded there and volume was 27.5k according to Google Finance, which would mean that someone or several someones made over 1.1 million from an investment totalling $275. Not bad for a 1 minute return.

I-Man said...

Any idea of the size of the EURUSD dnt option at 125?

call me ahab said...

CV-

dude- I am in no way a BR ass kisser- as you must know-

but it was an incredible twist of fate that the day he went all cash- the market tanked-

thus the kudos from all his loyal fans

Wes said...

@cv- ...please put up a McGruber post

Andy T said...

Was out on a golf course all afternoon. Did I miss anything noteworthy?

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAH.....

We were shitting ourselves out there. Couldn't believe the ticker we were seeing.

Yeah, that's a real solid "market."

mcHAPPY said...

Was today the start of October 2008? THat is a very steep cliff dive.

SC said...

"How come there are no fat finger excuses on major up days?"

There are, on DOLLAR up days.

First, Barry posts about hedgies monitoring blog posts, then posts that he's 100% in cash, then the market crashes. Very interesting...

CV said...

@Wes (8:05)

LOL - Wes you read my mind...

That was EXACTLY what was on cue for tomorrow morning my friend :-)

CV said...

@ahab (8:04)

Fine then... I'll change his name to TWSSICWB...

"The Wall Streeter Sitting In Cash Who Blogs"

To reflect his trading genius...

call me ahab said...

. . .and think about it-

BR just said a day or so ago that he was 35% cash-

and then- BANG- out of all equities- 100% cash- then- the market does a cliff dive-

so- regardless if it was a coincidence- he is the one walking around like the stud today

call me ahab said...

CV @ 8:18-

dude- the timing is luck- of course-

but tell me- wouldn't you be expecting hotter dates from hotter women regardless?

of course(-:!!!!!

CV said...

@ahab

When I see the FUSION P/L over a 3-4 year timespan... I'll tell you what I think...

call me ahab said...

CV-

b22 may have some inside info on that-

and- I am aghast-

BR just edited my comment from about 4 or 5 hours ago- LOL

call me ahab said...

here you go-

"Nikkei Falls Over 4% to 2-Month Low on Greece Woes" CNBC

man- it's just not looking very pretty out there

bob said...

Just saw this after a nap-

Interactive Brokers Bulletin Board

To all traders:
Thu May 6 19:59:41 2010 EST

TRADE CANCELLATION NOTICE



IB has received notice from each of the NASDAQ, NYSE ARCA, BATS, DIRECT EDGE, ISE and NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE of their intent to cancel all trades executed between 14:40:00 and 15:00:00 which were executed at a price greater or less that 60% away from the consolidated last print in that security at 14:40:00 or prior. Each has also provided notification that this decision cannot be appealed. At this point we are awaiting information from these exchanges, as well as any other exchanges which may later provide notice of a similar decision, as to which stocks are affected and the break points at which the cancellations will take place.



Once this information has been determined, IB will act to process any resultant position and cash changes to your account and will provide notification of this action via email and TWS bulletin. As such changes may adversely affect account equity and/or margin compliance, account holders are advised to monitor their accounts and manage their risk accordingly. Additional information will be posted as received to the System Status page which may be located by typing the keyword 'System Status' into the IB website search engine.

CV said...

@ahab

And I'll tell you why I'm NOT impressed...

For whatever reason, the market TANKED today... Some are calling it a "fat finger" trade (look at KD's site)... Some are calling BS on that...

Nevertheless... There ended up to be a cascade of ALGO trading that IS OBVIOUSLY NOT SET UP to deal with this...

IOW - If someone has been "long" stocks for a good while now, they were living on borrowed time (they were living with the possibility that a day like today could have happened AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT)... That idea is PROVED by the depths of where the market went in just minutes...

So basically, if you were IGNORANT to that fact, then you were being EXTREMELY IRRESPONSIBLE with peoples money all the while...

If you happened to GO CASH on the exact day before this occurred, then that is PURE LUCK... It's no different than someone at a craps table and LETTING IT RIDE until someone craps out (which mathematics tell you, eventually will happen)...

For months now, all I've heard from BR are "leftist" justifications which supported the policy which allowed this rally to occur...

Why, all of a sudden, do you go to 100% cash in a day?

I suppose the FUSION CAPITAL ALGOS are so powerful and sophisticated that they can interpret not only TECHNICALS, but parse those in a way that accounts for "policy"...

AHAB - BR can't have it both ways... He's EITHER a:

1. TECHNICAL TRADER
2. HE BELIEVES THIS SHIT HE MOUTHS OFF ABOUT

If the "policy" (from the Fed & Administration) were so great (and had been all along), he wouldn't be GOING TO CASH, he'd be buying this friggin dip!

Now... there's PLENTY of time for him to TAKE BACK previous statements (and get on board with most of the people who blog here)...

But if he does, once again, he's BEHIND the CURVE...

Just as he was TECHNICALLY (as most of us here have been talking about the "correction" for days now (not just yesterday)...

banksternation said...

FYI anyone with a position in GBP. Hung parliament looks almost certain in UK after early results.

CV said...

@ahab

So basically, anyone on his blog today that might have been "worshipping at his altar" has ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE what they're talking about or how markets work...

They're wasting their time blogging about financial matters...

I HAD THE CORRECT HORSE IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY LAST WEEK...

That was "luck", pure and simple...

call me ahab said...

"If you happened to GO CASH on the exact day before this occurred, then that is PURE LUCK.'

EXACTLY- lol

dude- you misread me- but I am all in on patting someone on the back for a great call-

whether it was complete bullshit or not!!!!

truthfully- I am not sure BR is up to snuff with many here regarding TA-

but- if someone walks in oblivious to the craps table and wins large-

the people standing around are clapping

Anonymous said...

Can the strength in gold in particular but silver also be interpreted as no shortage of liquidity yet?

Ryen

Mannwich said...

I wonder if that same "PHAT FINGER" triggered the big selloff in the NIKKEI this evening? Same exact one or different fatso?

Mannwich said...

Exactly AT. Real "solid" "market" indeed. What a joke.

Nic said...

I-Man
The option barrier at 125 in EURUSD is double no-touch option 1.25/1.35 and is rumoured to be massive. Fun and games

CV said...

@ahab

IT'S TOTAL BULLSHIT...

OK right... I just flipped on the TV to watch some baseball... I pass by the "Rachel Maddow" show...

That friggin dike is giggling it up with some guy from MOTLEY FOOL and trying to be "real smart" for her little Democrat audience in a way to calm them all down and say the WORLD ISN'T ENDING... Obama is in charge! Don't worry!...

She couldn't get FAST ENOUGH to the conclusion that it was ALL A FAT FINGER TRADE...

That's it... FAT FINGER TRADE... All is well... Go back to buying stocks and making $5 donations to Obama '12 campaign...

So what is it ahab?

Was it a fat finger trade? In which case, explain to me how BR's FUSION algos just KNEW that there was going to be a FAT FINGER trade this afternoon...

Or... has the crappy policy from this Administration & the Fed Gone Wild led us to this point...

The "policy" doesn't become crappy ALL IN ONE DAY... If it reeked, it reeked from DAY ONE... It just needed a trigger...

As always... as I've said... BR is TWO FACED...

And THAT is why CV is often grumpy when I have to listen to people around the blogosphere who want to get into NEVER ENDING DEBATING SOCIETIES...

A man looks at something and sees it for what it is... If it stinks, he says "THAT STINKS"...

He doesn't go around asking others opinions as to whether THEY think it stinks or not, and formulating a consensus viewpoint...

He doesn't need to "conduct a study" to prove or disprove... I'm SO TIRED of gladhandlers and milquetoasts...

CV said...

@ahab

He didn't WIN LARGE... He was in cash remember?

All he did was hold someone on the arm said "I don't have a good feeling about this roll"...

Don't bet the YO

Mannwich said...

True cv, but if you're a player in the game like BR is, you're almost forced to be political in order to acquire and maintain clients. Actually, anyone who's IN the game has to do this, IMO. We outsiders have the luxury of nothing to lose (but our own money) by spouting off our views when we want to. Industry folks have to walk that tightrope a bit and play it "safer". That's just the way it is......

Mannwich said...

I dunno, cv. I think you gotta give the man his due this time. I will, anyway.

McFearless said...

"Yeah - and watch, the next GENIUS move from the government will be to "ban" short selling..."


Easy call right?, this is most certainly in the cards.

Daneric said all that needs to be said about the fat finger trade:

Pundits telling themselves the "computers glitched" is a bullish mindset.

McFearless said...

I'm not going to fawn all over it but I don't think what BR did was luck fwiw.

Mannwich said...

No doubt, ben. I'm sure it was too to have it timed that closely, but I'd take luck any day of the week.

I'm waiting for the ban on not only all short selling but on any asset price decreases of any kind. ;-)

Mannwich said...

@ben: Oh, you said you did NOT think it was luck? Why do you say that? How could have timed it that closely and have it not be luck? Inside info via his quant program?

call me ahab said...

Goddammit CV-

dude- I am on your side-

I understand- it's different from sitting back waiting then taking a more gut wrenching short position-

my only observation is that BR lucked out on the right day on his long positions-

an example- you and I are Charles Town Race Track- and I pick a horse for no reason whatsoever- and it wins!!!!!

you are not going to congratulate me(-:!!!!

Nic said...

Have you noticed how the bids suddenly disappeared and how fast we bounced off the lows? If one of us had tried to buy one of those 1c stocks we had ZERO chance of being filled. I think this whole thing, even the big down moves, are all gamed by the big boys computers. And they know how to trigger the moves in currencies too, an OTC market.
Todays drops were signposted an hour earlier in key currencies like USDJPY and AUD crosses.
Yesterday big name IB's were buying Yen in size. Yesterday ...

call me ahab said...

b22-

absolutely was luck- that it played out on the very day that he announced it-

that's karma my man-

BR had nothing to do with it

call me ahab said...

nic-

wow- sounds like a big conspiracy-

can't be true(-:!!!

DL said...

Nasdaq cancelled trades in a number of stocks.
Following is the list:

http://media.globenewswire.com/cache/6948/file/8211.htm

Some ETF’s on that list.

DL said...

Nic @ 9:38

I agree. And add the fact that most people couldn't even get logged into their accounts.

wunsacon said...

I thought stocks were only allowed to go up.

And why didn't they cancel my trades from 3 weeks ago? I call "do over".

Mannwich said...

So much for the supposed tougher regulations on Wall Street. The banking whores voted it down by a good margin. Good theater though.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/06/senate-votes-for-wall-str_n_567063.html

McFearless said...

this thread has nothing but great comments, awesome thread, crazy day!

Mannwich said...

Wunsacon!

call me ahab said...

wunsacon-

dude- another refugee from the TBP-

AWESOME!!!

McFearless said...

alright, alright, I take it back, I should have said:

it wasn't ALL luck. But who cares, he was in cash, today the trade was short, you'd figure a "quant" could have at least been short 1 stock right?

Mannwich said...

LOL ben. Or in TLT!?

CV said...

They didn't all go to ZERO...

Sotheby's traded to $100,000 a share today for a moment...

It's market cap was $6 trillion...

& OK fine (ahab, manny, ben)

Fusion's ALGOS are so sophisticated that they just KNOW when a fat finger trade is going to happen the day before it happens...

CV is totally wrong...

And NO ahab... (re: Charles Town)...

Because NOBODY'S HORSE WON... He was in cash...

So if we'd been at Charles Town, would you be congratulating me that I DIDN'T lay a lot of money on a horse (that eventually lost)...

Gee - I guess I'd owe you a beer!

McFearless said...

"Have you noticed how the bids suddenly disappeared and how fast we bounced off the lows?"

Nic, I agree with all that you are saying here. I have no intention at all of holding short for too long during Primary 3 for these reasons. I really believe you will have had to be in early and out early to truly survive this thing. These computers can blow it all up. Johnny won't stand a chance.

DL said...

McFearless @ 9:55

Hard to know what the truth was with Ritholtz and Fusion. He's got to worry about perceptions; and he doesn't want to get pilloried on the blog.

At least with all of us, we're anonymous.
Got no reason to lie.

Wes said...

so, hang on to the euro bonds until when?

wunsacon said...

>> If the "policy" (from the Fed & Administration) were so great (and had been all along), he wouldn't be GOING TO CASH, he'd be buying this friggin dip!

Maybe I've been misreading BR. But, I don't recall him saying the Fed and Administration are so "great" or saying the fundamentals are great.

Rather, it seems to me that BR was more patient, perhaps more confident the Fed could and would engineer an oversized bounce from Mar '09, and thus milked more of the upswing. (Some Livermoresque "sitting", if you will.)

Now, did some of y'all do better? I take my toupee off to you, too.

call me ahab said...

CV @ 9:58-

excellent point- but C'MON- ol' BR pulled out at the right time to reevaluate-

not acceptable(-:!!!!

call me ahab said...

wunsacon @ 10:09-

a very good point-

but what the Fed and the USG have been doing is- in the end run- bad news for the long term-

you have to agree w/ that- right?

wunsacon said...

Hi Manny. Hi Ahab.

Yeah, I'm glad I found you guys. I missed reading your dialogue on TBP...

But, at this rate, I read too many blogs. I'm going to have to quit my job and do this full time.

;-)

call me ahab said...

All you need to know-

"Cramer: What the Dow’s 1,000-Point Drop Means for You"- CNBC

and you can take that to the bank

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, let's just sit back and cipher this thing:

Euro appears to have mismatched horses in the traces. Some are way stronger than the rest.

We have the most socialist president ever.

Cities and municipalities are certain to be unable to pay for bills they are already responsible for.

Most folks' biggest investment, housing, is not recovering.

Taxes are rising. Undeniable.

Unemployment seems extremely stubborn. CR's "red line" told us this a year ago.

China is applying some brakes at this point.

Debt burden merely shifted. Not resolved.


.......I think I may rethink deflation/inflation scenario.

wunsacon said...

>> but what the Fed and the USG have been doing is- in the end run- bad news for the long term-
>> you have to agree w/ that- right?

I think it's bad in the short-term and bad in the long-term. These leeches on Wall Street contribute so little in return for so much. "Never in the field of human conflict was so much paid by so many to so few." IMO, the FIRE economy should be downsized horribly. The sooner, the better.

Wes said...

...my situation was up 1/2% overall today...and I was out of touch at lunch with my boys during the whole episode...almost went SDS this AM, but did not waiting for a bounce first...the long usd - short euro has been working since jan...PM's and miners still working...

Nic said...

Do it Wunsacon, you know it makes sense :)

call me ahab said...

B in T-

c'mon man- your are not being very optimistic(-:!!


also- this-

"Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers, head of the president's National Economic Council, briefed President Barack Obama on the market turbulence and the debt situation in Greece"

you see- it's all under control

Andy T said...

"Fat finger" mistakes tend to expose where the 'weakness' is in the market.

I remember a few years ago when someone made a "fat finger" mistake after hours in the crude market. They jacked the market higher by a few bucks and everyone was screaming: "What the hell just happened? Did we bomb someone?!?"

Everyone was very confused and disoriented. At the end of the day it was a "mistake," but that mistake revealed where the 'weakness' was with crude: it was the to the upside! Nobody was there to sell that pop and nobody was there to really fight a move higher because all the commercial players were ALREADY very short and out of 'dry powder.' Over the next several months crude rallied from 80 to 145.

So, this very well could have been an honest mistake, but what it revealed was genuine.

call me ahab said...

wunsacon-

it's all good(-:!!!

I have been assured by the best authorities that things are looking better-

am I confused?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Yes, but our group settled for end of year today. New bass boat coming. I knew I was slaving in the salt mine.

Come on down CV and we'll Texas rig for some largemouths...

call me ahab said...

largemouth?

are you fishing a lake or river?

in Virginia I wade in and fish the small rivers-

all smallmouth-

and trying to catch the brook trout in the Shenandoah Mountains- what a show-

that's some serious fly fishing there

BinT said...

Ahab:

You are right. We also have striper hybrids that are stocked here, and frankly, there is nothing better than an afternoon with a fly rod and popping bugs and bluegills.

Hush, 'for I cancel work tomorrow.

bob said...

These aren't the trades you are looking for-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnjaUoR15dU

BinT said...

Night. May all your tomorrows be interesting times....

wunsacon said...

>> I have been assured by the best authorities that things are looking better-
>> am I confused?

Ahab, sometime in the past few decades, the US went from:
(a) collecting dividends on prior investments to
(b) paying dividends to foreign manufacturers out of income to
(c) paying out of savings to
(d) paying out of borrowing (MEW).

What's left after paying out of borrowing?

...

Wow. I drank ONE FRIGGING GLASS of red wine and I can barely read/type! Good night all! :-)

call me ahab said...

alright-

wrapping it up-

tired I am-

B in T- fishing's cool- I don't care what anyone says-

getting up before sunrise- so you can be on the river at daybreak-

putting that line in the water- all quiet- mist rising off the water-

to tell you the truth- I almost never care if I catch a damn thing at all

McFearless said...

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/nyse-nasdaq-cancel-trades-height-volatility-thursday/

Mannwich said...

It's days like these that makes me wonder when we'll see the return of CNBC Sucks.

karen said...

hello all.. tried to catch up with the 100 or so posts since i left !!

thanks for the stock list.. i didn't see any of mine on there.. mine were all early and orderly limits tho.. so mad about FAZ.. coulda made another $5k if i kept my original limit order in..

Nic said...

BOJ intervenes for first time since Dec, injects 2trillion yen to weaken currency. http://bit.ly/cy3CXH

spoonman said...

futures up tonight, looks like. Any wild guesses on how tomorrow opens?

spoonman said...

Karen - don't feel bad. I thought I made a nice trade this morning...I could've made ten times as much if I'd hung on for the afternoon.

karen said...

So, they are calling this the Flash Crash and chocking it up to HFT..

spoonman, all i know is that they want to screw anyone that is short!

spoonman said...

Ha, well, they didn't need to screw me, I goofed it all on my own, thank you. What I keep telling myself is that I can't go broke by making money.

The flash crash? Is that like someone driving off the road because they were distracted by...uh...a top?

Mannwich said...

Japan and U.S. in race to the currency bottom. Who wins?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/currency-devaluation-101-japan-pumps-liquidity-first-time-december-punish-surging-yen

call me ahab said...

alright-

last post-

"Nasdaq to Cancel Trades of Stocks Moving More Than 60% in Market Plunge"

I wonder if they cancel trades of those stocks that go up 60%?

probably not- so we know where there bias is-

right?

McFearless said...

I bet some Johnny's crapped their pants with that safe old PG.

one stock trade shut down was acn, moved to .01 today.

take a look at some of the ETF's with lower volume.

only a taste, all of primary 3 will be more extreme than 1.

McFearless said...

neither are going to win manny, that's where the debts are....market seems to agree...

McFearless said...

tomorrow is going to be interesting to say the least, futures are green now, 9:30 feels like a lifetime away right now.

AmenRa said...

Well the S&P did close below its weekly 3LB mid on Tuesday and its weekly 3LB reversal yesterday. I'm going to have to stop waiting for the end of the week to enter trades. Arrgghh!

AmenRa said...

Ben

How many on Wall Street are going to have trouble sleeping?

McFearless said...

Ra,

I'd imagine a lot of people. I won't sleep, but I'm just too interested in watching markets into the night. Very exciting time overall, at minimum we all have that going on.

McFearless said...

hey, just throwing this out there, if today was HFT, which it clearly appears to be....what good is the PPT, or is the PPT HFT, or WTF and OMG?

AmenRa said...

Ben

Half of Wall Street are still at their offices taking occasional naps on cots. That or were told to start three hours early tomorrow.

AmenRa said...

Ben

The PPT are the circuit breakers. Unfortunately the HFT algos know this and use it against the PPT.

McFearless said...

Ra,

that's my point, all the stuff we heard the entire rally about how it was the PPT pushing the market up.

McFearless said...

I skimmed a lot of comments tonight, seems a lot of people are still talking about dip buying.

I-Man said...

As a trader- I think you'd be insane to go charging into tomorrow positioned heavy on either side of the tape.

Its just that crazy.

I kept some friends in SPXU today, but if I had been watching that instead of SPX, I would have sold that shit in the high 30s without a 2nd thought. It all happened so fast... fast for 1min charts even.

I-Man said...

I'm kinda likin the looks of King Cotton:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CT

karen said...

i personally am a wreck.. i think i've mentioned that more than once today and i'm not responsible for OPM!

AmenRa said...

I was wondering if option trades were cancelled? If not someone made their year.

I-Man said...

Its pretty nuts how if you include the tail from today's candle on the SPX daily chart it forms a pretty damn close to perfect 3PADH, but its really 4 peaks when I look at it...

AmenRa said...

WTI

5/4/10: closed below weekly 3LB mid at 85.51 and weekly 3LB reversal at 84.87.

5/5/10: closed below monthly 3LB mid at 82.76.

5/6/10: closed below monthly 3LB reversal at 79.36.

5/4/10 was the warning shot

bob said...

This was the last list that was published-

To all traders:
Thu May 6 21:49:58 2010 EST

UPDATE TO TRADE CANCELLATION NOTICE



IB has received notice from the venues listed below of their intent to cancel all stock trades executed between 14:40:00 and 15:00:00 which were executed at a price greater or less that 60% away from the consolidated last print in that security at 14:40:00 or prior. Each has also provided notification that this decision cannot be appealed. While we continue to await confirmation from all venues as to which stocks are affected and the break points at which the cancellations will take place, it now appears likely that the information will not be delivered within the timeframe necessary to be posted to your account until the morning. It should also be noted that IB has received no notice from the U.S. option exchanges or futures exchanges as to whether or not they intend to take similar action.



Again, once all relevant information has been determined, IB will act to process any resultant position and cash changes to your account and will provide notification of this action via email and TWS bulletin. As such changes may adversely affect account equity and/or margin compliance, account holders are advised to monitor their accounts and manage their risk accordingly.


NASDAQ

NYSE ARCA

BATS

DIRECT EDGE

ISE

NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE

BTRADE

CBOE

CHX

LAVA

LIQUIDNET

NITE

TRACK ECN

I-Man said...

For sure, Ra... this move was telegraphed. In a few ways.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Protesters moving to invade Parliament in Greece during the austerity vote didn't help matters.

Anonymous said...

Amen Ra,

Do you think the 3LB method leaves enuff money on the table? I mean like you posted above the 3LB on Crude. Would a position based on that give a fair Reward/Risk.
And ya, thanks for all your work.

Prashant

SC said...

LIBOR is back at levels not seen since September 2009. Michael Panzer has the "big picture" charts on everything from gold to junk.

AmenRa said...

Prashant

Usually 3LB is a little late to a trend so you'll miss the turn but it confirms the turn. Usually once you get a weekly 3LB reversal up/down a turn has been identified. You can wait for confirmation with a second higher/lower weekly close or choose to wait for the trend (3rd higher/lower close).

If an equity is heading higher a weekly 3LB reversal down is time to take profits. How much is up to the individual. If it gets confirmed then close it and wait to see if it trends.

There are times when there's a weekly reversal and it'll stay in that range for weeks. Keep your powder dry and be patient. That's the hard part.

Nic said...

TWSWB is now a Legend:
Link text

Don't they read this blog? sigh ...

Anonymous said...

Actually, for some unknown reasons, I wish that not many people read this blog. I don't know, maybe some kind of kids' secret. :-)

McFearless said...

no worries Nic, I like our little crew, and the fact that we will all be on the right side of this train.

McFearless said...

oh, and in order to win, you gotta be in something.....I'm not going to talk about real returns on cash during credit deflation as it was only just one day...

McFearless said...

Nic had this link over at her site:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Market%20Crash.mp3


Control?????

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben, I am thinking that countries here identify themselves as strongest places for equity by simply being the ones who are raising their interest rates.....thoughts?

call me ahab said...

Not sure if anyone caught this yesterday- with everything else going on-

"The U.S. Senate yesterday rejected two significant changes to its financial-overhaul bill, voting down restrictions on a proposed consumer-protection bureau and a plan that would have forced the largest banks to shrink in size."

not sure if the consumer protection agency means anything- but reducing the size of the TBTF's seems to have merit

McFearless said...

Bruce,

well, my theories on why the markets move wouldn't follow that logic. There is no clear correlation between stock market performance and rates.
When things like yesterday happen nothing matters, instincts or computers programmed by people take over, and gut instinct kills you in the market.

I truly believe this is only a taste of what we are about to see. And after yesterday I truly hope I end up being wrong....

So here's a thought....I kept seeing people say that we wouldn't have a serious pullback until retail came back into the market in earnest.

Uh...I seriously doubt it as I have all along.

McFearless said...

ahab,

was reading about that this morning. doesn't matter. Wait until RE comes back on the market this summer and we get to see how undercapitilized the banks are. We won't need a bill, the market will move that along, THEN the politicians will pass it.

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

CV said...

&FWIW (from above)

CV is VERY HAPPY with the tight bunch of "traders" that we have here...

I said all along that I'm not trying to establish a MEGA BLOG...

I just want it to be

1. Fun first
2. Informative second

mcHAPPY said...

@Manny 9:52pm

I am disgusted that bill did not pass. I hope every senator who voted against it is voted out of office - unfortunately the piece of (actually I will take the high road).... Dodd is retiring and will not get a chance to be voted out.

Maybe a few days like yesterday combined with a couple of 'investigations' will lead to GLass-Steagall coming back - I doubt it but you never know. Seems a few making decisions in the past are feeling regret.

McFearless said...

We'll see what it looks like next week, but here is AAII, order is Bull/Neutral/Bear:

May 6: 39.13% 32.30% 28.57%
April 29: 41.36% 30% 28.64%
April 22: 38.12% 27.62% 34.25%
April 15: 48.48% 21.82% 29.70%
April 8: 42.86% 26.79% 30.36%
April 1: 41.30% 27.54% 31.16%
March 25: 32.39% 32.95% 34.66%
March 18: 35.37% 34.76% 29.88%
March 11: 45.29% 29.41% 25.29%
March 4: 35.86% 37.93% 26.21%

call me ahab said...

interesting observations from ZH-

"the massive 12-month rally, in my seasoned opinion, has occurred almost entirely due to program/algorithmic trading in New York. Despite the chronically low volume, prices continued to increase.. .as the indices go higher - nobody gives a damn how or why...it's all good as long as share prices increase. . if you are happy with Goldman and JP Morgan's trading desks gunning the market higher by simply trading back and forth to each other - then you better damn well be happy with the Black Swan event: a CRASH caused by the same computers."


exactly- especially this-

"as the indices go higher - nobody gives a damn how or why."

as long as they go up- all is right in the world- even if it was "trader error"- or outright manipultion

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.