Morning Audibles 5.5.10 - Cinquo de Mayo

Not many people know it, but Nevada used to be part of Mexico. It all started with the Spanish conquistadors. Exploring expeditions in the 16th, 17th and 18th Centuries allowed Spain to lay claim to a vast portion of North America, stretching from Florida to California, and from Tierra del Fuego at the southernmost point of South America to what is now the Canadian border. The Spanish called their vast empire in North America “New Spain.” It lasted for nearly three hundred years.

After the French revolution, Napoleon Bonaparte invaded Spain and made his brother, Jerome, king of that country. Jerome sold a large parcel of New Spain to Napoleon, who in turn sold it to the United States – the Louisiana Purchase.

With the overthrow of the Spanish monarchy by the French, the Spanish colonists in both North and South America grew restless. In Mexico, the colonists declared their independence and established the independent country of Mexico on September 16, 1810.

Like many newly-established countries, it took a while for Mexico to settle upon a form of government. The country was administered by the Generalissimo of the American Armies (1810-1811); the Supreme Governing Junta of America, also called the Supreme Junta of the Nation (1811-1813); a Generalissimo of the North American Armies in charge of the Executive (1813-1814); an Executive Power (1814); several Presidents (1814-1815); a non-functioning Executive Commission (1815-1817); a President of the Provisional Governing Junta (1821); a President of the Regency of the Empire (1821-1822); an Emperor (1822-1823); a President of the Constituent Congress (1823), by Presidents of the Supreme Executive Power (1823-1824); and from 1824, by Presidents of the Federal Republic of Mexico.

This turbulent era also saw a number of wars, which reduced the territory of Mexico by over one-third. In the north, the state of Tejas seceded in 1835, forming the Republic of Texas in 1836. Shortly after the Republic of Texas became one of the United States in 1845, another war broke out. This war (the “Mexican War” of 1846-1848) was a disaster for Mexico. The United States annexed all of the northern part of that country, which included the present-day states of California, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Idaho, Montana, and parts of Colorado, Wyoming, and Washington.

After the Mexican War, more troubles were in store for the Republic of Mexico. In an effort to end the economic stranglehold of the Catholic Church over the land and people, Mexico adopted a new constitution, and in 1857 the country broke down into civil war (la guerra de la Reforma, “the War of the Reform”). The combatants in the fighting were the Liberals and Conservatives. The Liberal faction was headed by Benito Juárez (Benito Pablo Juárez García), Mexico’s greatest statesman, whose capitol was at Vera Cruz. The United States gave its diplomatic recognition to this government. The Conservatives, with their capitol at Mexico City, had several leaders, the most prominent of which was General Félix Zuloaga (Félix María Zuloaga Trillo). By 1860, the Liberal party prevailed, and Benito Juárez took control of Mexico at the end of the year.

At the same time, the United States was sliding into a civil war of its own. Following the election of Abraham Lincoln in November of 1860, most of the southern states seceded and formed the Confederate States of America. When the Confederate troops of South Carolina bombarded and then forced the surrender of the US garrison at Fort Sumter in April of 1861, the War of the Rebellion began and raged until May, 1865 -- four long years.

In Mexico, the various factions that fought their civil war had borrowed large sums of money from foreign creditors. The fighting devastated Mexico’s economy, and the country had to suspend payments on its debts. Taking advantage of the relative weakness of the United States during the US Civil War, in December of 1861 the governments of France, Great Britain and Spain landed an allied military force at Vera Cruz to protect their interests in Mexico and to try to collect the debts owed to their citizens. Juárez negotiated with the allies and promised to resume payments, and the British and Spanish troops began to withdraw from Mexico in April, 1862.


The French, however, did not withdraw and instead sent reinforcements to their troops in Mexico. At the time France was ruled by Louis Napoleon, the nephew of Napoleon Bonaparte. Louis Napoleon was elected President of France, but after the election he proclaimed himself Napoleon III, Emperor of the French (the British referred to him as “the nephew of the uncle”).

While negotiations for the Mexican government to repay its debts were ongoing, the French commander, General Charles Ferdinand Latrille, comte (Count) de Lorencez, advanced on Mexico City from Vera Cruz, occupying the mountain passes which led down into the Valley of Mexico.

At this point it became clear that Napoleon III planned to turn Mexico into a colony. The French advance was along a route that had been used several times in the past to conquer Mexico, first by the conquistador Hernan Cortes and most recently by US General Winfield Scott during the Mexican War.

France declared war on Mexico, and called on those Mexicans who had fought on the side of the Conservative Party in the civil war to join them. Napoleon III planned to turn Mexico into an empire ruled by Archduke Ferdinand Maximilian Josef von Habsburg, the younger brother of the Emperor of Austria-Hungary.



Historians, of course, would tell you "the more things change, the more they stay the same" (advice which seems to be lost in the "JOHNNY come lately" world of WSWB)...

All the "sophistication" that technology has awarded us  in the past sesquicentennial seems to have simply been transferred to electrons and balance sheets...



Nevertheless, the world (and ALL these players), seem to always find themselves between the same ROCK, and the same HARD PLACE)...



Sigh... Have no fear though... The ECB is meeting in Lisbon this afternoon, and I'm sure they'll sort it all out...


They're probably calling this guy here as we speak... You know, to see if he left any BAZOOKAS lying around...

283 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 283 of 283   Newer›   Newest»
DL said...

LB @ 2:05

Anyone who wants the U.S. to give money to Greece is a "villain", IMO.

(If I never see another bailout, it'll be too soon).

karen said...

Buffett Says GM Rescue May Mean U.S. Can’t Say No to States

The fly in the ointment of QE? Interest Rates

DL said...

Karen @ 2:06

Which elephant? So many to choose from.

There are also a few 800 pound gorillas to think about.

DL said...

Karen @ 2:09

GREAT! That's the solution!

The U.S. can bail ITSELF out.

I-Man said...

Hmm...
Maybe I'm not the only quasi vegan here...

I-Man is all about the quinoa... shit's kind of expensive though, I'm paying $5/lb for organic.

Ital is vital, y'know.

DL said...

Maybe the ECB should engage in a little "QE" of its own. For example, they could print up some Euros, and use it to buy Greek bonds.

I'm sure Bernanke would be happy to give them a few pointers.

Leftback said...

An action video of market action today:

Waterfall

Longs may not be rescued from the next waterfall.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I've just been thinking of a few isolated oddities:

1. Lloyd Blankfein and LeftBack have the same initials. LB.
2. Lloyd and Lefty have never been seen in the same room at the same time
3. Both are aliens. Lefty from England, Lloyd from Zork.
4. Both are in the financial business.
5. Both listen carefully to what Obama has to say.
6. Neither knows what good redeye gravy consists of.

....Could all these things be mere coincidence?

DL said...

B/T @ 2:23

I've often thought along the same lines.

It's a Clark Kent/superman - type thing.

We just don't know if Blankfein is posing as Leftback, or the other way around.

I-Man said...

Waterfall...waterfall...waterfall...

karen said...

i'm still waiting for jnk to waterfall..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

@DL:

Exactly. I was thinking more along the lines of Maxwell Smart rather than Superman, but I get your drift...

DL said...

B/T

Yeah, "agent 86".

I-Man said...

Looks like you might get just that, Karen...

I-Man said...

Anyone have a good spot for realtime LIBOR?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Don't worry. Sold my AMAT. That's why the market has taken this afternoon dip. It will adjust.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

But just to be safe, please put your tray tables in the up position as see that they are locked in place...

I-Man said...

BnT:

Do you have Vol tickets by chance? (football)

I-Man said...

My cousins are being dickish.

McFearless said...

DL,

Would you care to explain your stance on why you seem to assign an almost 0 probability to oil being below $60 at any point "in the next two or three years"? Several executives at XOM disagree with you, so I'd like to understand how you come up with your view.

karen said...

honestly, too weird.. fxp on the 10 min, is the mirror image of dia.

that's one compliment i will give gartman.. he said it didn't matter what chart you put up.. coffee, gold, spx.. they all look the same.

black box trading is so boring!

karen said...

ben, let's just agree to disagree (with DL) that fundamentals eventually matter! he will most graciously admit he was wrong, eventually as well, because that is the gracious sort that he is!

karen said...

okay, i apologize for being silly.. this market would make anyone punch drunk..

DL said...

Well, thank you karen, that's very kind.

bob said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/keyrates.html

Libor is a survey that is only released once a day, 10 am est I think.

DL said...

McF @ 3:00

You do this a lot. I make a prediction, then you argue, in effect, that I bear the burden of proving that I'm right, but at the same time, that you bear no burden to prove that I'm wrong.

McFearless said...

karen,

fartman is just talking about the "all the same markets" theme yes?

Sorry, he's a little late to the table on that, EWI was talking about it 7 years ago.

Leftback said...

1160-1192 the new range? The 1160 area support has held twice.

UK election tomorrow, no results will be clear until US markets close, unless it is going to be a Tory landslide. Tomorrow might be "watch and wait" in Europe at least.

Denise Garterman said...

It's going from the upper left to the lower right....

McFearless said...

DL,

I'm simply asking why you say it, I'm not asking you to prove anything, just to provide a reason for your view, that's all. I can't prove or disprove your statement, I don't even know where it comes from.

typically when I talk with people about the market I'd like to go deeper than what we all think the price should be on something and instead focus on why we think it should be there. Helps me challenge my own opinions.

I back my calls up by the wave counts, because it is my primary tool, you dont' have to respond if I'm asking too much....

BinT said...

I-Man:

Still a Bulldog...

SC said...

Karen, was Gross trying to say that GMAC is actually under-rated, due to their government backstop? Or am I misreading him entirely?

McFearless said...

I think the UK will be voting for "change" right?

karen said...

SC, i want to know what gross was saying myself! wasn't he saying stocks were undervalued and bonds (prices) were headed down last month?

DL said...

McF @ 3:13

I'm not going to try to justify my opinion at the moment. But I still think that the "burden of proof" should be shared equally.

karen said...

LB! baby, one day does not a range make!!!

karen said...

let's see if 1150 can hold.. that could provide thin support. 1139 is the 100 dma, tho.

DL said...

Baby.

How endearing.

karen said...

of course, this is presuming there isn't an invisible hand. : )

nic, help us all out on crude with your erudite views..

DL said...

We want views that are crude, but erudite.

Leftback said...

"one day does not a range make!!!"

true, true... but we are trading "day to day" here, angel.

McFearless said...

DL,

I have spent the last year and half on the blogs making a clear case for credit deflation. I'm fairly certain you are aware of this. In fact, I would guess that every regular poster here could tell you where I stand, so what is this "you need to equally share the burden of proof" crap? I believe that's me on the other side of the Tony Soprano call on oil and I doubt you want or need to hear it all again. My case has been stated. If you didn't want to answer you could have left it at that.

No worries.

DL said...

I would think that, at some point in the next week, we could get a 3% rally. We got a 3% rally (in $SPX) during the June/July (2009) correction, and a 3% rally druing the Jan/Feb (2010) correction.

karen said...

jnk on the 60 min beginning to look better (or worse) depending on your stance, i suppose.

okay, darling, i understand you on the "day to day" but if 1160 is broken by the close, touché!

DL said...

Baby, angel, darling.

I'm detecting an escalation here.

Leftback said...

Bad news from Sponge Bob. Apparently Ol' Square Pants was gaming the earnings report. Must have trained under Jack Welch.

Sponge Bob in Hot Water

Surely no other US corporation would adjust their earnings?

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihm1HBwvr_4

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/congress-refuses-to-outlaw-insider-trading-for-lawmakers-478701.html?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,%5Eixic,brk-a,brk-b,gs,xlf&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Congress Refuses to Outlaw Insider Trading For Lawmakers

Barney Frank says in the words of the old Meatloaf song,"I would do anything for you, but I won't do that."

Color me shocked!

karen said...

whatever happens, i hope the spx closes under it's open !

karen said...

ufb.. the spy did close above its open! however, i'm not seeing much to get bullish about..

McFearless said...

put/call btw was at .87 this morning, for anyone claiming short squeeze.

please.

I think a good a decent case can be made we are in a 4 now, one more down move and we should get a larger bounce....next week perhaps. Trying to get targets for a wave 2 retrace this morning was obviously early.

Leftback said...

"ufb.. the spy did close above its open!"

I think we may have a range trade for a few days now, sweetheart...

karen said...

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010, 3:10 pm
Moody’s Investors Service said today it downgraded ratings on subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) worth $13bn as its expectation of losses on subprime pools continues to evolve.

Moody’s downgraded ratings on 111 tranches of 29 subprime RMBS deals worth $5.8bn and issued by MASTR Asset Backed Securities Trust. Moody’s also confirmed ratings on 22 classes.

The agency also downgraded ratings on 71 tranches within 20 subprime RMBS deals worth $4.1bn and issued by CSFB Home Equity Asset Trust. Moody’s also confirmed ratings on 25 classes, as well as upgraded ratings on three classes.

Moody’s downgraded ratings of 21 tranches from five subprime RMBS worth $2.5bn and issued by Centex Home Equity Loan Trust and Nationstar Home Equity Loan Trust. The firm also confirmed ratings of 10 classes.

The credit-rating agency downgraded 21 tranches of five subprime RMBS deals worth $1bn and issued by SG Mortgage Securities Trust. Moody’s also confirmed ratings on three classes.

The collateral backing the deals involved in today’s ratings actions primarily consist of fixed- and/or adjustable-rate subprime residential first mortgages. As Moody’s continues to update its loss estimates on subprime pools originated from 2005 to 2007, it occasionally makes sweeping downgrades like those announced today.

“The actions are a result of the continued performance deterioration in subprime pools in conjunction with home price and unemployment conditions that remain under duress,” Moody’s said in a statement on the downgrades.

Last week, Moody’s downgraded ratings on 55 tranches of 19 subprime RMBS deals worth $5.6bn and issued by Long Beach in 2005.

I-Man said...

@ Bruce

Miss St or Georgia? And yes, one is better than the other in my view...

karen said...

no, love, i am quite convinced the spx breaks 1158 tomorrow.

karen said...

btw, crude did close below last week's low today! hooray! but no, i am not eurphoric, so it can still go lower.

DL said...

Yeah, probably breaks 1158 tomorrow.

Do I hear 1150...?

I-Man said...

No way SPX gets out of here without tagging 1152.

I-Man said...

Dude...

Whats with all the baby, angel, sweetheart, love stuff?

Are yall going out?

karen said...

i'm out of here till later! hope AR puts together a happy wrap for me.. hope AR is feeling no pain, too.

Leftback said...

I-Man,

I think the lady is teasing LB.

DL said...

I-Man,

They need to get a room somewhere.

Maybe in Nebraska (that's in the middle).

karen said...

ps.. if nic comes back.. remind her we need her erudite, crude views..

DL said...

I'm more interested in the crude views, myself.

I-Man said...

No one calls me baby...

I-Man said...

@ Ra

Today was NOT a takuri...

karen said...

pps. breaking news?

U.S. Senate Approves Anti-Bailout Amendment to Financial Bill

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0HfQlEVnHis&pos=1

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 5.5.10

Phew! Another FTQ day. I wonder what a sovereign default would look like. There is a whiff of Systemic Risk in the air in Europe. Even IG was sold today, and investors grabbed even the 2y Ts. The low yield of the day was 2.24% on 5y, 3.49% on 10y and 4.32% on 30y. So if we get a range trade for a while, those levels are now firm resistance.

Corpies: LQD -0.43%; AGG -0.08%; JNK -1.57%; HYG –1.37%;
Govies: TLT 0.59%; IEI 0.33%; TIP 0.05%

A modest hedge was blown out early this morning. We hedged again into the close, anticipating a World Not Ending trade tomorrow. It is likely that bargain hunters will be out in the credit markets at least. Although we don't really see Greece and Portugal as bargains..

I-Man said...

New Armstrong:

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/An%20Outlook%20For%20The%20Land%20Downunder%205!2!10.pdf

On Australia...

karen said...

THE WRAP IS UP!

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