AmenRa's Corner 6.4.12

...can prevent market melt ups based on phony EU solidarity rumors.



Creditcane™: Stop putting up detour signs. You cannot get me to go away.


SPX
Doji day (not a morning star because it closed within the body of the prior candle). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(233). Failing the 38.2% retrace (1296.82). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1332.42). QE2infinity.


DXY
Bearish long day (evening star formed but will it get confirmed?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the 0.0% retrace (83.11). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.40).



VIX
Bearish short day (not shooting star - prior candle not long day). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (26.16). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.03).


GOLD
Bearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Tested and failed SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1538.90). Must have the precious.


 
EURUSD
Bullish short day (morning star formed - get confirmed?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Holding above its 0.0% retrace (1.2363). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2518).



JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (37.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.69).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 0.0% retrace (16.19). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.65).



WTI
Bullish thrusting day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (85.75). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 89.90).



SILVER
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (30.00). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.89).



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (41.37). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 43.50).



HYG/LQD
Bullish piercing day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (0.7375). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7616).



COPPER
Bullish harami day (better if shadows within prior candle body). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (3.352). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.396).


AAPL
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (563.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 579.17).



AUDJPY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (0.7579). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7740).



CRB
Bullish engulfing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% retrace (266.44). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 279.74).



TLT
expanded fibonacci weekly range
Already tested its new 38.2% minor retrace (130.32)




TYX (30yr yield)
expanded fibonacci on weekly chart
24.55 is the new 61.8% minor retrace so a 4.5% move down from here is still possible.





IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

28 comments:

AmenRa said...

The ONLY reason market was flat was due to London being on holiday. Wait for Wednesday. Especially since Egan Jones downgraded UK to AA- from AA.

AmenRa said...

VXX lower than VIX. What gives? The next couple of months will not be as volatile? Sheeit.

AmenRa said...

Thought this was interesting: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/joe-duarte/the-three-es-a-curious-convergence-of-events

Using Bollinger Bands with SMA(200) on SPX indicates a move to 1120ish (lower band).

Looking at my charts it took 42 days after failing the upper band to close below the MA. That would then estimate to 8/1/12 as the time the lower band should get tested. JTOL.

AmenRa said...

BinT

More from Hussman:

"One of the problems with QE here, however, is that it would essentially represent fiscal policy for the benefit of speculators, at taxpayer expense. To see this, note that the 10-year Treasury yield is now down to less than 1.5%. One wonders how Bernanke would be able to argue, with a straight face, that this is not low enough. Nevertheless, a 10-year bond has a duration of 8 years - meaning that each 100 basis point fluctuation in interest rates is associated with a change of about 8% in the price of the bond. So if you buy the bond and hold it for a full year, an interest rate change of of 1.5/8 = .1875, or less than 20 basis points, is enough to wipe out the annual interest and leave you with a negative total return.

So at this point, if the Fed buys Treasury bonds, it will predictably lose money - after interest - unless interest rates rise less than 20 basis points a year during the period that the Fed holds those bonds. Over the past year, the standard deviation of week-to-week changes in the 10-year Treasury yield has been about 13 basis points, so 20 bips over the course of a full year is nothing. Whether or not a speculator is willing to take a bet on lower yields, it's highly unlikely that the Fed could buy Treasury bonds here at a yield of 1.5% and ever expect to unload its portfolio later at even lower yields, because yields would shoot higher merely on the anticipation of Fed liquidation."

AmenRa said...

Shanghai Composite close down -64.89. China is blocking all searches. Why? Because 6/4/89 is the date for the Tiananmen Square protests.

AmenRa said...

...and today is 6/4/12. Coincidence?

AmenRa said...

And Now, Courtesy of Bridgewater... It's Italy's Turn

LTRO finding from ECB (in euros): Spain $195B, Italy $114B
Amount left: Spain $20B, Italy -$48B

AmenRa said...

funding not finding

AmenRa said...

Damn this is one good ass game!

AmenRa said...

http://www.egan-jones.com/

Look at the hit/miss ratio chart on the right. 94% is the low. Not bad. S&P, Moody's and Fitch are taking notice.

Andy T said...

Back from the hinterlands of Texas.

Andy T said...

looking at the s&p futures...

I thot that was a decent looking doji yday...the action so far early this morning suggests otherwise....

That 1296 - 1300 area now looks like good "stop loss" are for both medium and near term shorts...

IOW, if we start trading above 1300, i'd be out of all shorts.

Neely still calling for a good bounce higher (new highs) at some point to complete his final wave up....i disagree with him, but well....he's Neely...so it must be considered.

Anonymous said...

Andy T,

those 'Tubing Trips' can be great fun, hope yours was..

those 'Texans' Do have a few good Ideas.. :)
~~

AmenRa,

as per, nice Chartage/Wrappage/Weblogging..

Quotage..

"A decision of the Fuhrer in the express form of a law or decree may not be
scrutinized by a judge. In addition, the judge is bound by any other decision
of the Fuhrer, provided that they are clearly intended to declare law."
-- Adolf Hitler
(1889-1945) German Nazi Dictator
Source: 1936 Decree
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Adolf.Hitler.Quote.8B2E


"Custom may suffice as the basis of law, but is inadequate as the basis of justice. Tyranny, not liberty, has been the custom in the past; and so Libertarians reject custom as a guiding principle, just as they reject power or might. They know that justice is not something that was, or is, but that is to be."
-- Charles T. Sprading
(1871-1959) Libertarian activist, writer
Source: Charles T. Sprading's Introduction to Liberty and the Great Libertarians; An Anthology On Liberty; A Hand-book Of Freedom (Los Angeles: The Libertarian Publishing Company, 1913)
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Charles.Sprading.Quote.21FB


"Government power must be dispersed. If government is to exercise power, better
in the county than in the state, better in the state than in Washington. If I
do not like what my local community does, be it in sewage disposal, or zoning,
or schools, I can move to another local community, and though few may take this
step, the mere possibility acts as a check. If I do not like what Washington
imposes, I have few alternatives in this world of jealous nations."
-- Milton Friedman
(1912-2006) Nobel Prize-winning economist, economic advisor to President Ronald Reagan, "ultimate guru of the free-market system"
Source: "Capitalism and Freedom"
http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote_blog/Milton.Friedman.Quote.3096

AAIP

AmenRa said...

Andy T

"I thot that was a decent looking doji yday...the action so far early this morning suggests otherwise...."

Yes it was a doji BUT closed within the body of the prior candle which changes it from the 2nd day of a morning star (reversal) to a bullish thrusting (continuation of the current trend).

AmenRa said...

They are really really trying to keep this thing from imploding. DXY up, USTs down? EURUSD down, gold flat. WTI flat.

G7 a waste of time.

Spain to become a state of Germany (in theory).

AmenRa said...

Amazing what US markets will do when London is on holiday. 3AM tomorrow let the games begin.

AmenRa said...

Bloomberg kills me with their contradicting headlines:

European Stocks Rise on Speculation of Global Stimulus

followed by

Euro Weakens on Economy; S&P Futures Little Changed

AmenRa said...

ISM Non-Mfg

Employment 50.8 prior 54.2
New Orders/Inventories 0.991 prior 0.991 (no change)
Prices 49.8 prior 53.6

AmenRa said...

Today is all about recovering the 200 day. NOTHING ELSE matters. A third close below would open the trap door.

AmenRa said...

2s30s Spread back to Jan 2009 levels.

AmenRa said...

Spain says credit markets closing its doors, G7 takes no action

(Reuters) - Spain said on Tuesday that credit markets were closing to the euro zone's fourth biggest economy as finance chiefs of the Group of Seven major economies conferred on the currency bloc's worsening debt crisis but took no joint action.

Treasury Minister Cristobal Montoro sent out a dramatic distress signal about the impact of his country's banking crisis on government borrowing, saying that at current rates, financial markets were effectively shut to Spain.

"The risk premium says Spain doesn't have the market door open," Montoro said on Onda Cero radio. "The risk premium says that as a state we have a problem in accessing markets, when we need to refinance our debt.

Spain is beset by bank debts triggered by the bursting of a real estate bubble in 2008, aggravated by overspending by its autonomous regions.

The premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year debt rather than safe haven German bonds hit a euro era high of 548 basis points on Friday, on concerns that it will eventually be forced to seek a Greek-style bailout.

AmenRa said...

Here Come Today's Rumors

What would a day be without recycling of tired and expired rumors out of Europe. Sure enough:

* EFSF PROVISIONAL CREDIT LINE COMPROMISE BETWEEN MADRID AND BERLIN
* EFSF is to prepare a credit line for Spain in the case of need - Dow Jones
* EFSF provisional credit line for Spain is one option according to a German newspaper

Ah, the good old EFSF, which was last summer's magical bailout mechanism which with 3-4 turns of leverage, would bring the total to €1 trillion... until the realization that there is nothing to lever, as nobody (except for Japan occasionally) wanted to put any money in it. Oh well: the rumor is good to get stocks into the green for at least a few minutes.

But at least we now know that Spain will be paying to bail out itself. Just wait until it is Italy's turn next.

AmenRa said...

Anyone get the feeling that there are more sell orders than buy orders when there is a break of the 200 day? As much as the market is trying to get back to that level it may just start an avalanche.

b22 said...

Ra,

Just keeping it simple:

http://tinypic.com/r/2116wrm/6

AmenRa said...

French Experts Quit Over Greek Public Sector

The Greek public sector is a mess. That’s no news. But it seems that the Greek public sector is such a mess that it led seven high ranking French officials to quit their jobs focusing on the restructuring of the complicated and failing state apparatus.

For the past few months, the French team of experts visited Athens in order to update the controversial public sector of the country, which is one of the main targets set by the European task force within the country’s bailout program.

According to a Proto Thema report, under the guidance of Horst Reichenbach, the French team came to Athens and soon enough started implementing the European restructuring plan aiming at sanitizing the public sector of Greece. The team proceeded with evaluating the civil servants’ performance, reducing the controversial list of special payrolls, merging the some 1,500 autonomous state services and reducing public servants by 150,000 by 2015.

However, things did not run as smoothly as expected for the French technocrats who got lost in the endless labyrinth of the public sector.

Only a few months after coming to Greece, the seven French public servants decided to turn in their resignations and give up their privileged jobs, bonuses and high salaries and return to Paris after a fruitless attempt to reorganize the public service in Greece.

However, the high ranking team of experts was eventually convinced to reconsider their resignations and return to their jobs, since Paris, Berlin and Brussels did not want to leave the impression on the international community that they are abandoning Greece to its fate.

Now the question is whether the French technocrats manage to introduce the desired changes in the Greek public sector after the pending general elections of June 17.

AmenRa said...

Fist pumping all around as the bulls congratulate themselves on retaking the 200 day.


Day ain't over...

AmenRa said...

Missed it with a nice long bearish candle on the 5 minute chart.

AmenRa said...

Nuevo.

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