AmenRa's Corner 6.5.12

"Why do so many fall for the same shenanigans?"

Creditcane™: The 200 day means nothing to me.

Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(233) but failed SMA(200). Failing the 38.2% retrace (1296.82). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1332.42). QE2infinity.

Bullish long day (evening star not confirmed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the 0.0% retrace (83.11). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.40).

Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Now failing its 61.8% retrace (26.16). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.03).

Spinning top day (confirmed bearish thrusting - barely). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Failing SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1538.90). Must have the precious.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Holding above its 0.0% retrace (1.2363). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2518).

Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (37.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.69).

Spinning top day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (14.67). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.65).

Spinning top day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (85.75). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 89.90).

Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (30.00). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.89).

Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (41.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.50).

Bullish long day (confirmed bullish piercing). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (0.7375). Closed falling window. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7616).

Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (3.352). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.365).

Spinning top day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (563.20). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 579.17).

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (36.78). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.20).



AmenRa said...

Early look at futures:

DXY up, USTs down, Gold up, WTI up, EURUSD up, Yen up. WTF?

AmenRa said...

Nein! Nein! Nein! Again

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last updated: June 5th, 2012

No, Germany has not agreed to a "banking union".

It has not agreed to mutualise the costs of bank bail-outs, knowing perfectly well that this means 'Eurobonds lite' and the start of a slippery slope towards debt pooling.

It has not cleared the way for use of the EU rescue machinery (EFSF and ESM) for direct recapitalisation of banks – which is what Spain wants to avoid having to bear the contingent liabilities of its crumbling lenders on sovereign shoulders.

Germany has not moved one inch towards fiscal union of any kind. It may do so (I make no prediction). It has not done so yet. Europe faces exactly the same problem it has had since the start of the crisis.

There is no breakthrough on the Spanish banking crisis. Quite why the Madrid and Milan bourses have been rallying is beyond me.

Germany has agreed to explore extra supervisory powers for a European banking authority, in the "medium-term" once umpteen other conditions have been fulfilled.

This has no relevance to today's crisis.

Rather too much has been made of calls by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble for a "real fiscal union", long-standing rhetoric.

What he means is Fiskalunion, chiefly a punishment and discipline union.

AmenRa said...

Two Fed officials cool to more easing

By Mark Felsenthal and Jonathan Spicer

ST.LOUIS/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two top Federal Reserve officials suggested on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank is not preparing to ease monetary policy at a meeting later this month as the economic outlook has not deteriorated to the point where action is warranted.

Both James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher were cool to the idea of new monetary stimulus in response to last month's disappointing U.S. jobs growth and boiling financial tensions in Europe.

"The outlook for 2012 has not changed significantly so far," Bullard told a conference in St. Louis. "A change in U.S. monetary policy at this juncture will not alter the situation in Europe."

In fact, the stampede of global investors to the safety of bonds, which has driven U.S. and other interest rates to record lows, could give Fed officials breathing room, Bullard said. "One possible strategy is to simply pocket the lower yields and continue to wait and see on the U.S. economic outlook," he said.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill, which fell to a record low of 1.44 percent on Friday, rose to 1.57 percent on Tuesday.

Fisher, in a speech in Scotland, said Fed policy makers "must keep their heads about them" after the rash of weak data and resist trying to solve economic problems with more monetary stimulus. "Short of an implosion, I cannot support further quantitative easing," he said.

Fisher is one of the central bank's most ardent inflation hawks, and even the more-centrist Bullard has been a vocal proponent of allowing the economy time to heal.

But taken along with recent comments from Sandra Pianalto, president of the Cleveland Fed, who told The Wall Street Journal that a dismal U.S. jobs report on Friday did not merit a policy response, the remarks suggest Fed officials are not ready to pull the trigger on further easing at their upcoming meeting on June 19-20

AmenRa said...

Here we go again:

As Taxes Dry Up, Greece Warns of Going Broke

ATHENS — As European leaders grapple with how to preserve their monetary union, Greece is rapidly running out of money.

Government coffers could be empty as soon as July, shortly after this month’s pivotal elections. In the worst case, Athens might have to temporarily stop paying for salaries and pensions, along with imports of fuel, food and pharmaceuticals.

Officials, scrambling for solutions, have considered dipping into funds that are supposed to be for Greece’s troubled banks. Some are even suggesting doling out i.o.u.’s.

Greek leaders said that despite their latest bailout of 130 billion euros, or $161.7 billion, they face a shortfall of 1.7 billion euros because tax revenue and other sources of potential income are drying up. A wrenching recession and harsh budget cuts have left businesses and individuals with less and less to give for taxes — and growing incentive to avoid paying what they owe.

The budget gap is widening as the so-called troika of lenders — the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission — withholds 1 billion euros in bailout money earmarked for government financing while it waits to see whether new leaders elected June 17 will honor Greece’s commitments.

AmenRa said...

Miami - A Dream Deferred

AmenRa said...

This is pretty good: Political Fears May Keep ECB Easing On Hold

AmenRa said...

EU credit players are stretching. Futures trying to influence them. The old up in overnight and down during the day trend is back in play.

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AmenRa said...

Marketwatch: Five Reasons To Buy Stocks Now

Marketwatch: Market Significantly Undervalued


AmenRa said...

Germany IP M/M -2.2% prior 2.2%
Y/Y -0.7% prior 1.4%

6 June 2012 - Monetary policy decisions

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 1.00%, 1.75% and 0.25% respectively.

AmenRa said...

Funny how the MSM gets Buffett and Summers quotes right when the market is about the walk off the edge of the cliff.

b22 said...


Outside of maybe the cowboys there aren't many teams I enjoy losing more than the Heat.

AmenRa said...

No help from ECB (no shiznit). Go to plan B: squeeze the shorts before the down move can resume.

AmenRa said...

Non Farm Productivity Q/Q -0.9% prior -0.5%
Unit labor costs 1.3% prior 2.0%

AmenRa said...

Today it's all or nothing for the bulls...

AmenRa said...

Amazing. We are almost back to pre NFP levels. A move made on nothing but rumors. ECB already said no help. Greece saying their broke again. New rumor is that Germany is willing to back door funds to help Spain. If the German electorate really understands what that means then there will a bank run in Germany.

AmenRa said...

Beige Book: Nothing for us to be concerned about. No easing required. Carry on.

AmenRa said...

After all that there were no +1000 TICK readings. Nuff said.

AmenRa said...


Post a Comment


This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.