AmenRa's Corner 6.1.12




Creditcane™: I made it to work early. I'll be putting in overtime.


SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(233). Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (1296.82). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1332.42). QE2infinity.
DXY
Spinning top day (weak evening star formed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 0.0% retrace (83.11). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 82.40).
VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (26.16). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 21.03).
GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Tested and held SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1538.90). Must have the precious.
EURUSD
Bullish short day (weak morning star formed). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Still failing its 0.0% retrace (1.2546). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2518).
JNK
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (37.62). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.69).
10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 0.0% retrace (16.19). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.65).
WTI
Bearish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (85.75). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 89.90).
SILVER
Bullish long day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (30.00). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.89).
BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (43.76). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 44.27).
HYG/LQD
Bearish long day (run Forest run!). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (0.7375). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7616).
COPPER
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (3.352). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.396).
AAPL
Bearish short day (confirmed hanging man). Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (563.20). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 579.17).
USDJPY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(233). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (78.397). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 80.11).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

35 comments:

AmenRa said...

I accidentally had on CNBS and heard Cramer say now is not the time to sell but find good stocks with good dividends. To think long term and not day trading thoughts. I LMAO.

AmenRa said...

Hmmm maybe it wasn't priced in?

Anonymous said...

...but find good stocks with good dividends...

"Yield Pigs" have been, regularly, Slaughtered--oner the, previous, interim..

It will Not change..

AAIP

AmenRa said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-02/merkel-rejects-debt-sharing-as-obama-urges-end-to-crisis-cloud.html
Merkel Rejects Debt Sharing as Obama Urges End to Crisis Cloud

By Brian Parkin and Ben Sills - Jun 2, 2012 5:00 PM CT

German Chancellor Angela Merkel hardened her opposition to joint debt sharing in the euro region as President Barack Obama singled out Europe’s leaders for not doing enough to arrest the financial crisis.

With Europe’s debt crisis cited last week for canceled IPOs, weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing figures and a rise in the U.S. jobless rate, Merkel rejected joint debt issuance in the 17-nation euro area as a solution, saying “under no circumstances” would she agree to Germany-backed euro bonds.

Now, some “come along and ask for euro bonds, saying all we need are equal interest rates and everything will turn out all right,” Merkel said in a speech to members of her Christian Democratic Union in Berlin yesterday. Instead, what’s needed is an economic overhaul to tackle the lack of competitiveness in Europe, she said.


How do you say "Bite me" in German?

AmenRa said...

BTW June 16 is opex. Greece election June 17. Who in their right mind would be long over THAT weekend?

AmenRa said...

Just noticed that the Dow closed the week below its monthly 3LB mid.

AmenRa said...

Weekly 3LB Update 6/1/12

AmenRa said...

Tick tock. Tick tock. No major rumors of EU fix.

AmenRa said...

The DJ, TRANS, NASDAQ, SPX, RUSSELL 2K all closed below their respective EMA(10) on the monthly chart for May.

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AmenRa said...

AUDJPY closed below EMA(10) and monthly 3LB mid for May.

AmenRa said...

Does the FOMC update the Beige Book before release? I know they watch what's going on but since it comes out before the meeting they could try and influence things.

Matthew said...

"Does the FOMC update the Beige Book before release?"

LOL. I think that what they do is call up Lloyd and Jamie and say, "Does this look okay?"

AmenRa said...

Coffee nearing its 100% retrace (154.55).

RBOB trending down on the weekly 3LB and had a monthly 3LB reversal down in May.

Palladium trending down on the weekly 3LB and is now confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.

Euro Stoxx 600 trending down on the weekly 3LB, below EMA(10) at May close and below monthly 3LB mid.

VEU (FTSE All World -US) below EMA(10) at May close. Confirmed weekly 3LB reversal down and closed below monthly 3LB mid on 6/1/12.

AmenRa said...

FTSE closed but DAX, CAC and IBEX open.

10yr yield trying to push higher (exactly who is selling USTs then?).

BinT said...

expect that the U.S. economy is presently entering a recession, which is global in nature. It is unlikely to respond meaningfully to monetary stimulus, which has already gone well past the point of diminishing returns, and on to the point of recklessness.

At present yields, a further round of QE would essentially amount to fiscal policy, subsidizing bond market speculators and banks, and ultimately producing near-certain losses for the Fed, after interest, and at public expense.

Stocks remain overvalued on the basis of normalized earnings, and only appear reasonably priced on the basis of "forward earnings" because forward earnings estimates implicitly reflect assumed profit margins that are 50-70% above historical norms.

....Hussman.

AmenRa said...

Who sold USTs to get the yield back above the all time low?

AmenRa said...

The market would be a lot lower if the FTSE wasn't on holiday for two days.

AmenRa said...

Sack back to selling UST & buying spoos.

AmenRa said...

No bullish bounce after a big down day? Escape pods getting manned about now.

love the gold trend (steve) said...

Ben,
When I see articles like these in yahoo/WSJ/Smartmoney, it makes me think the low in gold is in for now. I think it's time to jump back in the gold pool (although not with any leverage). I think there is a chance gold falls to 1400+/-, but at the same time, I think gold has a lot to do on the upside before it's bull market is over.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-gold-investors-zero-suffice-040100747.html

Steve

AmenRa said...

1228.74 (61.8% retrace) is support on the weekly SPX chart.

AmenRa said...

Steve

Read the article. More fear mongering if you ask me. The author was wrong in 2009 when gold was $900.

AmenRa said...

If they want to engineer a reversal signal in TNX then today needs to close below 15.21 or it will be outside the body of Fridays candle.

AmenRa said...

Lemme guess. Market trying to get back to the SMA(200). Can't have two daily closes in a row below the 200. Right?

b22 said...

Steve,

I haven't checked that article out yet but the DSI on gold had recently fallen to a level that indicated bounce, see chart in this article, so it makes sense you'd see some goofy sentiment toward gold:

http://www.businessinsider.com/baml-time-to-buy-gold-2012-5

over the last several weeks I have been buying gold for clients, starter positions for now

I see it pretty much exactly as you do, maybe that drop is still in play to 1400's zone or an undercut but I'm still of the mind that the gold bull is not over.

good luck to you, I've not done any leverage yet either...but I think that is coming in due time

b22 said...

Steve,

just glanced it

so the gold correlation shows chaos because its not consistently -/+ 1

haha

ok, for fun, anyone can play with the COF function for free at stock charts

now everyone knows that the dollar ($usd) is a perfect inverse correlation all the time with risk assets, or say, the $SPX....right?

wrong....

play on any time frame you like, shockingly even during the "all one trade" period we've found oursevles in I can count several instances of weeks to months long positive correlation over the last decade!

some call this chaos I guess, others might just call it a market, where there are no perfect correlations and the ones that are generally so change over time depending on market conditions

for a while intermarket workers all knew for sure that the dollar confirmed the price trend of stocks....they moved in the same direction....and then that stopped too

AmenRa said...

b22

That's similar to todays trade. Yields moving higher while market drops. DXY down & gold down. Correlation hell.

AmenRa said...

BofA masked Merrill loss before 2008 vote - filings

(Reuters) - Top executives at Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) did not tell shareholders just before a 2008 vote on its purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co that Merrill's losses were mounting and expected to weigh down earnings for years, papers filed in private shareholder litigation show.

But the bank and former Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis said in their own court papers that they should not be liable to shareholders who claimed to have lacked information that they needed to vote on the once $50 billion merger.

Lewis also said he had been advised by the bank's law firm and chief financial officer that no disclosure was necessary.

The papers, including sworn testimony from Lewis, were filed on Sunday night in class-action litigation accusing the second-largest U.S. bank of fraudulently misleading holders of shares and call options about Merrill's losses and bonus payouts.

They may also strengthen the contention that Bank of America withheld material information just before the December 5, 2008, merger vote, a characterization that Lewis resisted in a March 27 deposition by the shareholders' lawyers.

How long before BAC is back to testing $5?

b22 said...

Ra,

exactly, I think people have a tendency to overdue it when talking about correlations, they are rarely ever perfect and they don't last forever

the underlying secular trends do a lot to dictate the general relationships it would seem but intermarket analysis is only a couple decades old really, inflation is also different than deflation in terms of the intermarket realitonship, but in any given day to expect them to always follow along with the larger trend.....thats not going to happen

seems the really talented folks figure out how to build a portfolio full of non-correlateded investments even in this environment, that seems to be a big focus for Ray Dalio, as an example.

AmenRa said...

Dear Algos,

THERE WILL BE NO FED INTERVENTION. Deal with it.

AmenRa said...

I will say this about correlation. If yields are up then enough USTs were sold to keep the markets from imploding. So even if the market is down intraday there is enough dry powder to push it back to flat.

steve said...

Ben/Ra,
Over the last year I've started seeing a few mainstream investors talk about gold as ... "you can have up to 5% of your portfolio in gold for *diversification* purposes" ... now it's "well, it doesn't even provide diverisification, so don't have any gold"!

I think the article shows the continued mainstream doubt of gold ... it still seems to be fairly contrarian to be long gold.

AmenRa said...

If I hear one more talking head say that since yields are are Lehman lows the Greece "event" has been priced in so when it happens it will be a non-event. I call BS.

AmenRa said...

Nuevo.

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