AmenRa's Corner 5.31.12

"I tried and I tried. But to no avail. No mas."


Creditcane™: Thought you were knocked out before the rumor. Had to knock you back down at the close.


SPX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Holding above the 38.2% retrace (1296.82). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1295.22). QE2infinity.
DXY
Spinning top day (evening star forming?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 0.0% retrace (83.11). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.40).
VIX
Spinning top day (bearish harami?…probably not). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (21.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.10).
GOLD
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Failing all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1538.90). Still below its monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSD
Doji day (morning star forming?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Still failing its 0.0% retrace (1.2546). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2518).
JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (38.24). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.06). Hulk smash!
10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (not a hammer because body too large). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (16.19). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.93).
WTI
Bearish short day (falling three method confirmed). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (87.33). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 91.80). Still below the monthly 3LB mid.
SILVER
Spinning top day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (30.00). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.89).
BKX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 44.83).
HYG/LQD
Bearish long day (run Forest run!). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (0.7592). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7832).
COPPER
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (3.352). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.468).
AAPL
Hanging man day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (577.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 561.28).
CRB
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (277.27). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 281.44).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

40 comments:

AmenRa said...

re: Ireland

"Voting to decide if Ireland will ratify the fiscal treaty ended at 10pm with turnout reported as low across the State.

With over 3.1 million people entitled to vote in the referendum indications are that only half the electorate chose to go to the polls.

The counting of votes will begin at 9am tomorrow and a result is expected by early evening."

Low turnout usually implies the "No" vote has the upper hand because they'll vote no matter what the weather is doing."

AmenRa said...

If you look at the 10yr Note monthly chart it appears that it has been rising at 45 degrees since July 2007.

AmenRa said...

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/pater-tenebrarum/spain-everything-suddenly-stops

quote:
"We decided to bring a complete update as there have been big moves in all these markets. It should be noted that CDS have become quite overbought, bonds and stocks look very oversold and lastly there is a record net speculative short position in euro futures. These facts would all argue for an imminent pause in the panic, with some sort of corrective retracement triggered soon (what might provide the trigger is unknowable at this time). However, one must always keep in mind at such junctures that 'oversold conditions' occur also just prior to outright crashes. This possibility, although it usually has a very low probability of eventuating, must be kept in mind whenever a budding panic is underway.

Andy T said...

Why do we blow up and glamorize any competition....of any kind.

The Scripps Spelling Bee on ESPN and they have "analysts" for the event now....

Geezus.

AmenRa said...

On Friday, China’s official version of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index declined to 50.4 in May, from 53.3 in April, well below forecasts.

Consensus was 52.2. China stated the other day that there would not be any monetary stimulus anytime soon.

AmenRa said...

DXY now trending up on the monthly 3LB.

The monthly candle for WTI is as bad as the one from Oct 2008.

AmenRa said...

OKC is not fucking around. SAS finally getting their first loss.

AmenRa said...

Dow Jones now below monthly 3LB mid
Gold now below monthly 3LB mid
WTI now below monthly 3LB mid
30yr yield (TYX) monthly 3LB reversal down
Silver now trending down on the monthly 3LB
EURUSD now trending down on the monthly 3LB
XLF now below monthly 3LB mid
AUDJOY now below monthly 3LB mid
YEN now above monthly 3LB mid
CRB now trending down on the monthly 3LB
CAT now below monthly 3LB mid
AA now trending down on the monthly 3LB
Hang Seng now below monthly 3LB mid
DAX now below monthly 3LB mid
UUP monthly 3LB confirmation (up)
USDJPY now below monthly 3LB mid

AmenRa said...

10yr (overnight) 1.537%. I expect yesterdays low to be taken out before NFP. Off today so decided to stay up and watch the manipulation.

AmenRa said...

Emini S&P has taken out yesterdays lows. Free fall is now underway.

AmenRa said...

Oops. Too late. 10yr new low 1.529%.

AmenRa said...

Oversold can always get more oversold. Just sayin'

AmenRa said...

Getting worse for the 10yr now at 1.521%.

AmenRa said...

NFP 69k
UR 8.2%
Private 82k
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
RUN

AmenRa said...

More of the bad news...
U6 14.8% +0.3%
LFPR 63.8 +0.2
27 weeks 5411k +410k
Weekly hrs 34.4 -0.1
Construction -28k
Gov -13k
Temp 9.2k -3.4k

AmenRa said...

Oh yeah B/D 204k

AmenRa said...

addendum:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised from +154,000 to
+143,000, and the change for April was revised from +115,000 to +77,000.

AmenRa said...

Gatdayum 10yr 1.450% AND FALLING...

AmenRa said...

Core PCE M/M 0.1% prior 0.2%

AmenRa said...

Somebody is intervening in the EURUSD...

AmenRa said...

They better pray ISM is BTE...

Andy T said...

Morning All.

Some commentary here:

DXY move has been impressive. This looks a lot like the e-wave of an expanding triangle as was discussed on the last update.

Use 81.50 as support. I like the idea of buying any dip on the DXY at this point.

78.60 should serve as lasting low for some time to come.

The S&P500 is clearly in trouble...a long and rough summer is "in the cards." There will certainly be some bear market bounce in the next several months, but they should all be sold. We're taking out a previous low today but we're now triggering bullish RSI divergence on the daily charts...so, if you're pressing shorts here...be careful.

1338 should serve as important resistance for the next several weeks. Any break above 1338 would cause me to rethink the large scale shorting strategy.

Shorter term traders who are short should use 1300 as near term "stop loss." Again, 1338 should be the looser, more medium term "stop."

-------

I've been derelict with updates/charts due to family events, etc....

Unfortunately, this weekend will be no different. Yday was last day of school in "these parts." So, a bunch of us are heading to Concan, TX to "tube" the Frio River. It's a "texas thing"....

Good Luck everyone.

AmenRa said...

n/m
ISM 53.5, prior 54.8, consensus 54.0
Employment 56.0 -0.4
Prices 47.5 -13.5
New Orders/Inventories 1.307 prior 1.2

AmenRa said...

Andy T

Sounds like fun.

AmenRa said...

Someone needs to check the settings on the HFTs (just in case)...

AmenRa said...

The supposed buying at the 200 day isn't appearing.

AmenRa said...

i'm also surprised that I haven't seen any +/- 1000 TICKS yet.

b22 said...

AT,

what do you think of the Neely count?

He's got us in a short time window left to bottom between now and possibly as low as 1200 but his count then calls for a move into the mid 1400's from there

its an odd count but he seems to be sticking with it

how about goldmember today, any thoughts on that?

AmenRa said...

Retest of the 200 day in progress...

AmenRa said...

b22

Can't speak for EW but gold is currently above its weekly 3LB mid (1613.65) so the bias is bullish.

AmenRa said...

Keene: What's the difference between todays crisis and the Lehman crisis?


My answer: There was no implicit Fed backstop during the Lehman crisis until they created it.

AmenRa said...

The market is REALLY REALLY REALLY trying to hold the 200 day. Watch out for black ice!

b22 said...

Ra,

I've been looking for a major low in gold since about mid April,....I think today is very constructive, at minimum some further bounce should be expected

thanks for the 3lb confirmation as well

AmenRa said...

Ruh roh. The 11:15 low failed to hold. The acceleration down has begun.

AmenRa said...

Todays gold candle is damn near the exact opposite of the one from 2/29/12 that started the downtrend.

AmenRa said...

1269.65 is the monthly 3LB mid for SPX. That's where things get really interesting.

AmenRa said...

Ireland referendum passes 60% yes 40% no. The bankers thank you and now ask that you bend over.

Anonymous said...

the "irish" are out of their _______ minds..

I, Really, don't understand 'what's up' with them..

ibid.

AmenRa said...

Pure unadulterated carnage.

AmenRa said...

Nuevo.

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