"I tried and I tried. But to no avail. No mas."
Creditcane™: Thought you were knocked out before the rumor. Had to knock you back down at the close.
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Holding above the 38.2% retrace (1296.82). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1295.22). QE2infinity.
Spinning top day (evening star forming?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 0.0% retrace (83.11). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.40).
Spinning top day (bearish harami?…probably not). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (21.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.10).
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Failing all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1538.90). Still below its monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
Doji day (morning star forming?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Still failing its 0.0% retrace (1.2546). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2518).
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (38.24). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.06). Hulk smash!
Bearish short day (not a hammer because body too large). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (16.19). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.93).
Bearish short day (falling three method confirmed). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (87.33). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 91.80). Still below the monthly 3LB mid.
Spinning top day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (30.00). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.89).
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 44.83).
Bearish long day (run Forest run!). Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (0.7592). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7832).
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (3.352). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.468).
Hanging man day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (577.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 561.28).
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (277.27). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 281.44).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
40 comments:
re: Ireland
"Voting to decide if Ireland will ratify the fiscal treaty ended at 10pm with turnout reported as low across the State.
With over 3.1 million people entitled to vote in the referendum indications are that only half the electorate chose to go to the polls.
The counting of votes will begin at 9am tomorrow and a result is expected by early evening."
Low turnout usually implies the "No" vote has the upper hand because they'll vote no matter what the weather is doing."
If you look at the 10yr Note monthly chart it appears that it has been rising at 45 degrees since July 2007.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/pater-tenebrarum/spain-everything-suddenly-stops
quote:
"We decided to bring a complete update as there have been big moves in all these markets. It should be noted that CDS have become quite overbought, bonds and stocks look very oversold and lastly there is a record net speculative short position in euro futures. These facts would all argue for an imminent pause in the panic, with some sort of corrective retracement triggered soon (what might provide the trigger is unknowable at this time). However, one must always keep in mind at such junctures that 'oversold conditions' occur also just prior to outright crashes. This possibility, although it usually has a very low probability of eventuating, must be kept in mind whenever a budding panic is underway.
Why do we blow up and glamorize any competition....of any kind.
The Scripps Spelling Bee on ESPN and they have "analysts" for the event now....
Geezus.
On Friday, China’s official version of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index declined to 50.4 in May, from 53.3 in April, well below forecasts.
Consensus was 52.2. China stated the other day that there would not be any monetary stimulus anytime soon.
DXY now trending up on the monthly 3LB.
The monthly candle for WTI is as bad as the one from Oct 2008.
OKC is not fucking around. SAS finally getting their first loss.
Dow Jones now below monthly 3LB mid
Gold now below monthly 3LB mid
WTI now below monthly 3LB mid
30yr yield (TYX) monthly 3LB reversal down
Silver now trending down on the monthly 3LB
EURUSD now trending down on the monthly 3LB
XLF now below monthly 3LB mid
AUDJOY now below monthly 3LB mid
YEN now above monthly 3LB mid
CRB now trending down on the monthly 3LB
CAT now below monthly 3LB mid
AA now trending down on the monthly 3LB
Hang Seng now below monthly 3LB mid
DAX now below monthly 3LB mid
UUP monthly 3LB confirmation (up)
USDJPY now below monthly 3LB mid
10yr (overnight) 1.537%. I expect yesterdays low to be taken out before NFP. Off today so decided to stay up and watch the manipulation.
Emini S&P has taken out yesterdays lows. Free fall is now underway.
Oops. Too late. 10yr new low 1.529%.
Oversold can always get more oversold. Just sayin'
Getting worse for the 10yr now at 1.521%.
NFP 69k
UR 8.2%
Private 82k
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RUN
More of the bad news...
U6 14.8% +0.3%
LFPR 63.8 +0.2
27 weeks 5411k +410k
Weekly hrs 34.4 -0.1
Construction -28k
Gov -13k
Temp 9.2k -3.4k
Oh yeah B/D 204k
addendum:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised from +154,000 to
+143,000, and the change for April was revised from +115,000 to +77,000.
Gatdayum 10yr 1.450% AND FALLING...
Core PCE M/M 0.1% prior 0.2%
Somebody is intervening in the EURUSD...
They better pray ISM is BTE...
Morning All.
Some commentary here:
DXY move has been impressive. This looks a lot like the e-wave of an expanding triangle as was discussed on the last update.
Use 81.50 as support. I like the idea of buying any dip on the DXY at this point.
78.60 should serve as lasting low for some time to come.
The S&P500 is clearly in trouble...a long and rough summer is "in the cards." There will certainly be some bear market bounce in the next several months, but they should all be sold. We're taking out a previous low today but we're now triggering bullish RSI divergence on the daily charts...so, if you're pressing shorts here...be careful.
1338 should serve as important resistance for the next several weeks. Any break above 1338 would cause me to rethink the large scale shorting strategy.
Shorter term traders who are short should use 1300 as near term "stop loss." Again, 1338 should be the looser, more medium term "stop."
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I've been derelict with updates/charts due to family events, etc....
Unfortunately, this weekend will be no different. Yday was last day of school in "these parts." So, a bunch of us are heading to Concan, TX to "tube" the Frio River. It's a "texas thing"....
Good Luck everyone.
n/m
ISM 53.5, prior 54.8, consensus 54.0
Employment 56.0 -0.4
Prices 47.5 -13.5
New Orders/Inventories 1.307 prior 1.2
Andy T
Sounds like fun.
Someone needs to check the settings on the HFTs (just in case)...
The supposed buying at the 200 day isn't appearing.
i'm also surprised that I haven't seen any +/- 1000 TICKS yet.
AT,
what do you think of the Neely count?
He's got us in a short time window left to bottom between now and possibly as low as 1200 but his count then calls for a move into the mid 1400's from there
its an odd count but he seems to be sticking with it
how about goldmember today, any thoughts on that?
Retest of the 200 day in progress...
b22
Can't speak for EW but gold is currently above its weekly 3LB mid (1613.65) so the bias is bullish.
Keene: What's the difference between todays crisis and the Lehman crisis?
My answer: There was no implicit Fed backstop during the Lehman crisis until they created it.
The market is REALLY REALLY REALLY trying to hold the 200 day. Watch out for black ice!
Ra,
I've been looking for a major low in gold since about mid April,....I think today is very constructive, at minimum some further bounce should be expected
thanks for the 3lb confirmation as well
Ruh roh. The 11:15 low failed to hold. The acceleration down has begun.
Todays gold candle is damn near the exact opposite of the one from 2/29/12 that started the downtrend.
1269.65 is the monthly 3LB mid for SPX. That's where things get really interesting.
Ireland referendum passes 60% yes 40% no. The bankers thank you and now ask that you bend over.
the "irish" are out of their _______ minds..
I, Really, don't understand 'what's up' with them..
ibid.
Pure unadulterated carnage.
Nuevo.
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