Week Ahead Post: S&P 500, Gold and Silver

Hello All,

I'm finally back in town for a least a week straight.  These are some quick thoughts and charts on the S&P500, Silver and Gold.

Hope everyone survived OK last week.

Market Commentary 25SEP11


I'm seeing more and more "SECEDE" signs as I travel around Texas.  There's a major Billboard on I-10 that is sponsored by a group called TakeTexasBack.com.  I'm sort of hoping Rick Perry doesn't get the GOP nomination--it feels like a Perry/Obama contest would be extremely divisive and ugly.  You know, the sort of thing that leads to "civil strife"....  We're inevitably heading there anyway...I'd just rather see it go down much later in my life. 


AmenRa said...

Thanks for the charts Andy. I do think the market wants to get as many shorts out of the way before the big move lower.

Anonymous said...

anyone else only getting 3 of "8" Charts to come through..

I see the S&P Charts, though, the rest of the 'screens'/'slides' are Blank..


AmenRa said...


I usually open the link in a new window.

QQQQ said...

thx AT

good spooz-gold-silver stuff there

good copper stuff here and here

Anonymous said...

yeah, that's, heavily, 'crazy', even @ scribd.com, I'm, only, getting the S&P Chartage..


does scribd not like Opera Browser?

M E Hoffer said...

"....Money Managers

Money managers cut the combined net-long position across 18 futures and options by 20 percent in the week ended Sept. 20, the most since February 2010, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

Silver for immediate delivery slumped 9.8 percent to $28.0850 an ounce. Cash gold retreated 3 percent to $1,607.40, the lowest since July.

“It all depends on the stability of the financial situation in Europe and how that gets managed, but it’s difficult times at the moment for gold,” Alexandra Knight, an economist at National Australia Bank, said from Melbourne.

Three-month delivery copper fell 2.3 percent to $7,194.50 a ton, taking this year’s loss to 25 percent. The contract tumbled to a one-year low on Sept. 23 and lost 15 percent last week.

“Copper is clearly in a downward trend as investors see no improvement in the macro environment, only deterioration,” Zhang Zhenghua, an analyst at Minmetals Futures Co., said today by phone from Shanghai.

Crude oil for November slid 0.6 percent at $79.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It lost 9.5 percent last week, the worst since May. December-delivery corn gained 0.4 percent at $6.41 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in Singapore at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net "

maybe that ~30 #, on Ag, isn't going to 'hold', afterall ..

maybe, that ~27 #, that AT mentioned last week, will?


also, if someone could e|mail AT's Charts, to me, that'd be Great~

QQQQ said...

seeing gold in the $1560's,
it bounced off $26.00

@MEH-A²IP-ibid, have you tried google chrome?
...it should work using their own products some would think.

Andy T said...

Just a smooth littel $130 range on gold overnight....

yeah. safe haven.

AmenRa said...

Andy T

Just more margin hikes and not liquidation. Once traders realized gold got hit by another margin hike they started buying again.

ben22 said...

there is no such thing as a safehaven, asset classes always get that tag near the end, so typical it's happened again

Neely puts out a generic message this morning, says the 12 year bull market in gold is over

AmenRa said...

Lumber has been lower in the past month so I expect that NHS will be WTE.

BinT said...

Since Greece is still running a primary deficit (it can't pay its bills even if debt servicing costs drop to zero), my impression is that the eventual default may be even worse.


cv said...

'Safe haven'...


Yeah I'm sure everyone is out there selling their gold bricks right now to get the FIAT necessary to buy some of that highly rated US Treasury debt...

Gotta get me some...

ben22 said...

fwiw, AT,
I'm more inclined to agree with your chart and count on gold at this time than I am with Neely's comments

I don't think the gold story is complete yet....we'll see I guess, if that was "the" high we won't see it again for a long, long time.

AmenRa said...

SPX daily is forming a falling three method. If tomorrow is another small body day that is within the high-low range of the long bearish day then look out.

Anonymous said...


gruesome..tho..may be setting up for a "Bounce" (?)


Anonymous said...

speaking of gruesome..



I wonder how many John E. accounts are stuck with ~68 Shares of NFLX @ ~285 (?)


ben22 said...

Ra, 2:54

good eye man

re: SODA

it's close, maybe cup and handle there, it tried to get above the lower horizontal line of the long sideways consolidation it had before the breakout in May and couldn't do it, a higher low here with some volume could be the ticket

I tried to find an entry with options a week ago to find a way to make the trade pay for itself but didn't find anything then, will look again though.

If there is a big rally coming year end after one more market drop in October I'd bet that stock would participate on the upside.

ben22 said...


NFLX's day low was right at that $126 marker we discussed last week

Anonymous said...

I don't know if you guys saw this.


Very frank, this guy.


Andy T said...

CV. Good luck with FF tonight.

I've got Santana Moss on my other team in a different league. i've got that game won already...so, no mixed emotions now. Won't mind seeing a mediocre game from Moss.

Best of luck either way.

ben22 said...

gee Prashant, you think he might be short up to his eyeballs?

"I go to sleep dreaming of another recession"
"people were positioned to make money in the Great Depression and I think anyone can do that"
"act now"

here's a word of advice from someone that used to think like that:

You'll be more worried about keeping money than you will making it if another depression comes around, in fact, you'll probably hope you've got a fat stack of notes on hand before you even think about your next trade

and further, the debt load makes it highly likely not all shorts get paid in that scenario, hardly a "dream come true"

that was a bit strange if you ask me, but you are right, he was very frank!

Andy T said...

Wow. S&P500 ....

Doesn't want to go down, does it? Pain in the ass....

AmenRa said...


Todays SPX candle kind of f'd up the falling three method. Bastids.

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